The mathematician who cracked Wall Street | Jim Simons

譯者: Tess Yeh 審譯者: Muyun Zhou

Chris Anderson: You were something of a mathematical phenom.

(安德森) 你算是數學界的奇葩

You had already taught at Harvard and MIT at a young age.

很早便在哈佛和麻省理工教書

And then the NSA came calling.

之後NSA找上門

What was that about?

這段故事是？

Jim Simons: Well the NSA -- that's the National Security Agency --

(西蒙斯) 喔，NSA是美國國家安全局

they didn't exactly come calling.

並沒有實際找我

They had an operation at Princeton, where they hired mathematicians

它在普林斯頓有個機構 請了許多數學家

to attack secret codes and stuff like that.

來破解密碼之類的

And I knew that existed.

我知道這事

And they had a very good policy,

它們的規定挺不錯

because you could do half your time at your own mathematics,

你可以一半研究數學

and at least half your time working on their stuff.

只要一半做它們的事

And they paid a lot.

給薪很優渥

So that was an irresistible pull.

這點很難抗拒

So, I went there.

所以我就去了

CA: You were a code-cracker.

(安) 你曾是密碼破解員

JS: I was.

(西) 對，是的

CA: Until you got fired.

(安) 直到被解雇

JS: Well, I did get fired. Yes.

(西) 對，我被炒魷魚

CA: How come?

(安) 怎會這樣?

JS: Well, how come?

(西) 嗯，原因嘛

I got fired because, well, the Vietnam War was on,

被解雇因為...那時越戰爆發

and the boss of bosses in my organization was a big fan of the war

我單位的上司迷上越戰

and wrote a New York Times article, a magazine section cover story,

他替紐約時報寫了文章 成為封面故事

about how we would win in Vietnam.

談如何打贏越戰

And I didn't like that war, I thought it was stupid.

我不喜歡越戰，覺得很愚蠢

And I wrote a letter to the Times, which they published,

便寫信給《時代》雜誌，後來被登出來

saying not everyone who works for Maxwell Taylor,

說並非麥克斯維爾·泰勒所有屬下

if anyone remembers that name, agrees with his views.

都贊同他，如果還有人記得這個名字

And I gave my own views ...

我提出我的看法

CA: Oh, OK. I can see that would --

(安) OK，我瞭解這會...

JS: ... which were different from General Taylor's.

(西) 與泰勒將軍不同

But in the end, nobody said anything.

但最後也沒人說什麼

But then, I was 29 years old at this time, and some kid came around

那年我29歲，有個小子來找我

and said he was a stringer from Newsweek magazine

自稱是《新聞週刊》特約記者

and he wanted to interview me and ask what I was doing about my views.

想問我怎麼實踐自己的看法

And I told him, "I'm doing mostly mathematics now,

我說:「現在我幾乎都弄數學

and when the war is over, then I'll do mostly their stuff."

等戰爭結束，才會做他們的事」

Then I did the only intelligent thing I'd done that day --

於是我便做了那天最明智的事

I told my local boss that I gave that interview.

我把訪談一事告訴主管

And he said, "What'd you say?"

他問我:「你說了什麼?」

And I told him what I said.

我就照實說

And then he said, "I've got to call Taylor."

接著他說:「我要打電話給泰勒」

He called Taylor; that took 10 minutes.

他打給泰勒，講了10分鐘

I was fired five minutes after that.

再5分鐘我就被解雇了

CA: OK.

(安) 這樣啊

JS: But it wasn't bad.

(西) 不過這並非壞事

CA: It wasn't bad, because you went on to Stony Brook

(安) 這不糟，因為你去了 紐約州立大學石溪分校

and stepped up your mathematical career.

數學生涯更上層樓

You started working with this man here.

也開始跟這人合作

Who is this?

他是誰？

JS: Oh, [Shiing-Shen] Chern.

(西) 喔，陳省身

Chern was one of the great mathematicians of the century.

陳是那世紀最厲害的數學家

I had known him when I was a graduate student at Berkeley.

我在柏克萊念碩士時，就知道他

And I had some ideas,

我有些想法

and I brought them to him and he liked them.

告訴了他，他很喜歡

Together, we did this work which you can easily see up there.

我們便一起努力，就上面你看到的

There it is.

就是這個

CA: It led to you publishing a famous paper together.

(安) 你們共同發表了著名論文

Can you explain at all what that work was?

可以談研究內容嗎?

JS: No.

(西) 不行

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

JS: I mean, I could explain it to somebody.

(西) 我是說，可以講給別人聽

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

CA: How about explaining this?

(安) 如果說明這個呢?

JS: But not many. Not many people.

(西) 可是, 不會向太多人

CA: I think you told me it had something to do with spheres,

(安) 你曾告訴我，這跟球體有關

so let's start here.

從這說起吧

JS: Well, it did, but I'll say about that work --

(西) 我要講那研究－

it did have something to do with that, but before we get to that --

是有關球形, 但我想先說

that work was good mathematics.

那是一流的數學研究

I was very happy with it; so was Chern.

我非常高興，陳也是

It even started a little sub-field that's now flourishing.

它甚至促成一個次領域，現在很興盛

But, more interestingly, it happened to apply to physics,

更棒的是它被用於物理

something we knew nothing about -- at least I knew nothing about physics,

一個未知領域，至少我不懂物理

and I don't think Chern knew a heck of a lot.

我想陳也只略知皮毛

And about 10 years after the paper came out,

論文發表10年後

a guy named Ed Witten in Princeton started applying it to string theory

普林斯頓的愛德華·維騰 把它用在弦理論

and people in Russia started applying it to what's called "condensed matter."

俄國人則用於所謂"凝聚體"研究

Today, those things in there called Chern-Simons invariants

如今這些被稱為"陳-西蒙不變式"

have spread through a lot of physics.

廣泛應用在物理界

And it was amazing.

這太不可思議

We didn't know any physics.

我們完全是物理門外漢

It never occurred to me that it would be applied to physics.

從沒想過會被用於物理

But that's the thing about mathematics -- you never know where it's going to go.

然而，這就是數學 你總猜不到它的去向

CA: This is so incredible.

(安) 真難以置信

So, we've been talking about how evolution shapes human minds

我們談到演化如何形塑人類思想

that may or may not perceive the truth.

無論思想是否關於真理

Somehow, you come up with a mathematical theory,

你就這樣得出一個數學理論

not knowing any physics,

完全不懂物理

discover two decades later that it's being applied

這理論20年後被用來

to profoundly describe the actual physical world.

深入描述實際物理世界

How can that happen?

怎麼辦到的?

JS: God knows.

(西) 天曉得

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

But there's a famous physicist named [Eugene] Wigner,

知名物理學家尤金·維格納

and he wrote an essay on the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics.

曾撰文談到數學不合理的有效性

Somehow, this mathematics, which is rooted in the real world

不管怎樣, 數學本就源自真實世界

in some sense -- we learn to count, measure, everyone would do that --

例如學計算、測量，大家都這麼做

and then it flourishes on its own.

這學門自己繁盛起來

But so often it comes back to save the day.

常常一回到數學，困難就迎刃而解

General relativity is an example.

廣義相對論就是一例

[Hermann] Minkowski had this geometry, and Einstein realized,

愛因斯坦學了閔可夫斯基的幾何學後

"Hey! It's the very thing in which I can cast general relativity."

驚呼「就是它了! 幫我釐清廣義相對論」

So, you never know. It is a mystery.

所以, 你搞不懂的，這太奧秘了

It is a mystery.

超乎常理

CA: So, here's a mathematical piece of ingenuity.

(安) 關於數學的獨創性

Tell us about this.

講講這個

JS: Well, that's a ball -- it's a sphere, and it has a lattice around it --

(西) 這是顆球－球體，球面被格狀劃分

you know, those squares.

就那些四方形

What I'm going to show here was originally observed by [Leonhard] Euler,

我要講的是（萊昂納多）歐拉發現的

the great mathematician, in the 1700s.

18世紀偉大的數學家

And it gradually grew to be a very important field in mathematics:

這現象逐漸成為重要的數學領域

algebraic topology, geometry.

代數拓樸學、幾何學

That paper up there had its roots in this.

我的研究即從這來

So, here's this thing:

是這樣的

it has eight vertices, 12 edges, six faces.

這裡有8頂點、12邊和6面

And if you look at the difference -- vertices minus edges plus faces --

如果加以運算：頂點數-邊數+面數

you get two.

得到2

OK, well, two. That's a good number.

嗯，好一個2

Here's a different way of doing it -- these are triangles covering --

換方法做，佈滿三角形

this has 12 vertices and 30 edges

有12個頂點，30個邊

and 20 faces, 20 tiles.

和20個面

And vertices minus edges plus faces still equals two.

此時點-邊+面仍是2

And in fact, you could do this any which way --

事實上，你可用任何方法

cover this thing with all kinds of polygons and triangles

球上蓋滿各種多邊形和三角形

and mix them up.

混合在一起

And you take vertices minus edges plus faces -- you'll get two.

再把點-邊+面，得到2

Here's a different shape.

這是另一種形狀

This is a torus, or the surface of a doughnut: 16 vertices

這是環面，甜甜圈形表面16頂點

covered by these rectangles, 32 edges, 16 faces.

覆蓋長方形，32邊，16面

Vertices minus edges comes out to be zero.

點-邊+面得出0

It'll always come out to zero.

答案永遠是0

Every time you cover a torus with squares or triangles

只要用長方或三角形 覆蓋環面

or anything like that, you're going to get zero.

答案總是0

So, this is called the Euler characteristic.

這稱為歐拉示性數

And it's what's called a topological invariant.

也叫做拓樸不變量

It's pretty amazing.

這很神奇

No matter how you do it, you're always get the same answer.

不論你怎麼劃，答案總是一樣

So that was the first sort of thrust, from the mid-1700s,

這是18世紀中以來第一個刺激

into a subject which is now called algebraic topology.

後來變成代數拓樸學

CA: And your own work took an idea like this and moved it

(安) 你對此更深入研究

into higher-dimensional theory,

到更高維度理論

higher-dimensional objects, and found new invariances?

更高維度的物體，找新的不變量?

JS: Yes. Well, there were already higher-dimensional invariants:

是, 高維不變量已找到了

Pontryagin classes -- actually, there were Chern classes.

龐特里亞金示性類，還有陳示性類

There were a bunch of these types of invariants.

一大堆這類不變量

I was struggling to work on one of them

那時我努力研究其中一個

and model it sort of combinatorially,

發展成某種組合模型

instead of the way it was typically done,

不用既有標準方法

and that led to this work and we uncovered some new things.

這變成我們的研究，也發現新東西

But if it wasn't for Mr. Euler --

但如果沒有歐拉

who wrote almost 70 volumes of mathematics

寫下70卷數學書

and had 13 children,

養育13個子女

who he apparently would dandle on his knee while he was writing --

想必是邊寫邊逗弄幼兒

if it wasn't for Mr. Euler, there wouldn't perhaps be these invariants.

若非歐拉, 就沒有這些不變量

CA: OK, so that's at least given us a flavor of that amazing mind in there.

(安) 恩, 我們瞭解了，奇特的心路歷程

Let's talk about Renaissance.

現在讓我們談談文藝復興科技公司

Because you took that amazing mind and having been a code-cracker at the NSA,

由於你曾任NSA解碼員的研究經歷

you started to become a code-cracker in the financial industry.

你開始當金融界的解碼員

I think you probably didn't buy efficient market theory.

我想你不相信效率市場理論

Somehow you found a way of creating astonishing returns over two decades.

20年來，你有辦法獲利驚人

The way it's been explained to me,

對我來說你的方法

what's remarkable about what you did wasn't just the size of the returns,

驚人之處不在於獲利金額多寡

it's that you took them with surprisingly low volatility and risk,

而是大幅降低變動性與風險

compared with other hedge funds.

相較其他對沖基金

So how on earth did you do this, Jim?

你到底怎麼辦到的?

JS: I did it by assembling a wonderful group of people.

(西) 我靠集合一群優秀的人

When I started doing trading, I had gotten a little tired of mathematics.

我開始經商時，我對數學已有些厭煩

I was in my late 30s, I had a little money.

年紀快40，手頭有點錢

I started trading and it went very well.

便開始做買賣，結果非常成功

I made quite a lot of money with pure luck.

純靠運氣賺了一大筆錢

I mean, I think it was pure luck.

我說，我認為是好運

It certainly wasn't mathematical modeling.

而肯定不是數學模型

But in looking at the data, after a while I realized:

但我審視這些數字後

it looks like there's some structure here.

發覺現似有固定模式

And I hired a few mathematicians, and we started making some models --

我便請幾位數學家，弄了幾個模型

just the kind of thing we did back at IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses].

類似我在防衛分析研究所做的

You design an algorithm, you test it out on a computer.

設計一套演算法，用電腦測試

Does it work? Doesn't it work? And so on.

能用?不能用? 之類的

CA: Can we take a look at this?

(安) 可否看看這個?

Because here's a typical graph of some commodity.

這是常見的商品銷售圖

I look at that, and I say, "That's just a random, up-and-down walk --

我想:「不過是隨機走高走低－

maybe a slight upward trend over that whole period of time."

整體趨勢緩升」

How on earth could you trade looking at that,

你到底怎麼看這隨機圖

and see something that wasn't just random?

就能做生意、發現東西?

JS: In the old days -- this is kind of a graph from the old days,

(西) 這圖很老套了

commodities or currencies had a tendency to trend.

商品或貨幣有其趨勢

Not necessarily the very light trend you see here, but trending in periods.

不必然像這樣，但一段時間有其走向

And if you decided, OK, I'm going to predict today,

如果你決定，好，我要預測今天

by the average move in the past 20 days --

靠前20日的平均變化

maybe that would be a good prediction, and I'd make some money.

也許可猜得準，也賺到錢

And in fact, years ago, such a system would work --

事實上幾年前，這系統還可行

not beautifully, but it would work.

不漂亮，但過得去

You'd make money, you'd lose money, you'd make money.

賺了，賠了，又賺

But this is a year's worth of days,

但這是一年內表現最好的幾天

and you'd make a little money during that period.

這期間賺得不多

It's a very vestigial system.

這系統老掉牙了

CA: So you would test a bunch of lengths of trends in time

(安) 所以你用不同期間長短

and see whether, for example,

的趨勢來檢視，例如

a 10-day trend or a 15-day trend was predictive of what happened next.

是10天還是15天的走勢預測較準

(西) 沒錯，都得試過才知道

JS: Sure, you would try all those things and see what worked best.

順勢投資法 在60年代或許非常好用

Trend-following would have been great in the '60s,

and it was sort of OK in the '70s.

70年代還可以

By the '80s, it wasn't.

到80年代就玩不通了

CA: Because everyone could see that.

(安) 因為任何人都看得出來

So, how did you stay ahead of the pack?

你是怎麼持續領先的?

JS: We stayed ahead of the pack by finding other approaches --

(西) 我們靠開發其他方法保持領先－

shorter-term approaches to some extent.

像是期間更短的方法

實際上是蒐集無數資料

The real thing was to gather a tremendous amount of data --

and we had to get it by hand in the early days.

早期都一筆筆抄回來

We went down to the Federal Reserve and copied interest rate histories

我們到聯準會影印歷史利率

and stuff like that, because it didn't exist on computers.

之類的，那時還沒有電腦

We got a lot of data.

我們取得大批資料

And very smart people -- that was the key.

和絕頂聰明的人——這是關鍵

I didn't really know how to hire people to do fundamental trading.

我不太會找人做實際買賣

I had hired a few -- some made money, some didn't make money.

我請過幾個——有人能賺，有的不行

I couldn't make a business out of that.

我不能這樣做生意

But I did know how to hire scientists,

但我知道怎麼請科學家

because I have some taste in that department.

這方面我比較有品味

So, that's what we did.

所以就這麼做了

And gradually these models got better and better,

模型表現越來越好

and better and better.

越來越順

CA: You're credited with doing something remarkable at Renaissance,

(安) 你帶領文藝復興公司的成果驚艷

which is building this culture, this group of people,

塑造了一種文化、一群人

who weren't just hired guns who could be lured away by money.

他們不是老想錢的傭兵

Their motivation was doing exciting mathematics and science.

而一心想玩數學和科學

JS: Well, I'd hoped that might be true.

(西) 我希望這是真的

But some of it was money.

但有些動機真的是錢

CA: They made a lot of money.

(安) 他們賺了好多

JS: I can't say that no one came because of the money.

(西) 我不信沒人在乎錢

I think a lot of them came because of the money.

我想許多人來都想賺錢

但他們也想樂在其中

But they also came because it would be fun.

CA: What role did machine learning play in all this?

(安) 當中機器學習的角色是?

JS: In a certain sense, what we did was machine learning.

(西) 某些情況下，我們就是做機器學習

You look at a lot of data, and you try to simulate different predictive schemes,

你面對成堆資料，試著模擬各種預測系統

until you get better and better at it.

直到越發熟練

It doesn't necessarily feed back on itself the way we did things.

它不一定會跟人一樣主動回饋資料

But it worked.

但仍滿好用的

CA: So these different predictive schemes can be really quite wild and unexpected.

(安) 所以不同預測系統很難駕馭與掌握

I mean, you looked at everything, right?

意思是，你什麼都算，是嗎?

You looked at the weather, length of dresses, political opinion.

天氣、裙長、政治評論

JS: Yes, length of dresses we didn't try.

(西) 是的，裙長倒沒試過

CA: What sort of things?

(安) 哪類東西?

JS: Well, everything.

(西) 所有東西

Everything is grist for the mill -- except hem lengths.

什麼都可用－除了衣擺長度

Weather, annual reports,

天氣、年報

quarterly reports, historic data itself, volumes, you name it.

季報、歷史資料、冊數，只要你叫得出來

Whatever there is.

管他是什麼

We take in terabytes of data a day.

我們每天取得1T的資料

And store it away and massage it and get it ready for analysis.

接著儲存、處理、準備分析

You're looking for anomalies.

尋找突出的現象

You're looking for -- like you said,

在找——就像你說的

the efficient market hypothesis is not correct.

效率市場假說並不正確

CA: But any one anomaly might be just a random thing.

(安) 但任何奇特現象都可能只是隨機現象

So, is the secret here to just look at multiple strange anomalies,

所以秘訣是在與注意多次出現的異狀，

and see when they align?

並觀察何時接連出現嗎?

JS: Any one anomaly might be a random thing;

(西) 任何異常狀可能只是恰巧

however, if you have enough data you can tell that it's not.

不過看夠多資料後 就知並非如此

You can see an anomaly that's persistent for a sufficiently long time --

會發現異常持續很久

the probability of it being random is not high.

隨機出現的機率反而不高

But these things fade after a while; anomalies can get washed out.

一陣子它會不見，異常會消失

So you have to keep on top of the business.

所以我們得保持領先

CA: A lot of people look at the hedge fund industry now

(安) 目前人們看對沖基金產業

and are sort of ... shocked by it,

都感到震驚

by how much wealth is created there,

竟創造這麼多財富

and how much talent is going into it.

又得投入大量腦力

Do you have any worries about that industry,

你擔心這產業嗎?

and perhaps the financial industry in general?

或對整個金融業?

Kind of being on a runaway train that's --

好似脫韁野馬

I don't know -- helping increase inequality?

我不曉得——助長社會不平等?

How would you champion what's happening in the hedge fund industry?

你為何支持對沖基金的近來發展？

JS: I think in the last three or four years,

(西) 我想近3、4年

hedge funds have not done especially well.

對沖基金表現平平

We've done dandy,

我們曾風光一時

but the hedge fund industry as a whole has not done so wonderfully.

但這產業走得不太順

The stock market has been on a roll, going up as everybody knows,

眾所周知，股市向來平步青雲

and price-earnings ratios have grown.

本益比增加了

So an awful lot of the wealth that's been created in the last --

過去5、6年錢賺到嚇死人

let's say, five or six years -- has not been created by hedge funds.

但對沖基金就較差

People would ask me, "What's a hedge fund?"

人們問我:「什麼是對沖基金?」

And I'd say, "One and 20."

我說:「1和20」

Which means -- now it's two and 20 --

意思是——現在是2和20

it's two percent fixed fee and 20 percent of profits.

2％的固定手續費，20％的獲利抽成

Hedge funds are all different kinds of creatures.

各家對沖基金差異很大

CA: Rumor has it you charge slightly higher fees than that.

(安) 有流言說，你收的高些

JS: We charged the highest fees in the world at one time.

(西) 我們的手續費一度是世界最高

Five and 44, that's what we charge.

5和44，就這個價格

CA: Five and 44.

(安) 5和44

So five percent flat, 44 percent of upside.

5%固定費用，44％獲利抽成

You still made your investors spectacular amounts of money.

你仍幫客戶賺進大把鈔票

JS: We made good returns, yes.

(西) 是的，收益很不錯

People got very mad: "How can you charge such high fees?"

人們氣我:「這太貴了」

I said, "OK, you can withdraw."

我說:「OK，你可退出」

But "How can I get more?" was what people were --

但「如何賺更多」就是人們...

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

But at a certain point, as I think I told you,

但重點是，我跟你提過

we bought out all the investors because there's a capacity to the fund.

我們收購了所有投資者，因為這基金能賺

CA: But should we worry about the hedge fund industry

(安) 但該替對沖基金業擔心嗎?

attracting too much of the world's great mathematical and other talent

它吸走太多全球優秀的數學等人才

to work on that, as opposed to the many other problems in the world?

只做這事，而無視世界其他問題

JS: Well, it's not just mathematical.

(西) 這個嘛，不單數學家

We hire astronomers and physicists and things like that.

我們也聘請天文學家和物理學家等

I don't think we should worry about it too much.

我不覺得我們應當過於擔心

It's still a pretty small industry.

這產業規模仍小

And in fact, bringing science into the investing world

事實上，把科學引入投資界

has improved that world.

對世界有益

It's reduced volatility. It's increased liquidity.

可降低變動性，提高流動性

Spreads are narrower because people are trading that kind of stuff.

因人們交易這東西，擴散範圍變更小

So I'm not too worried about Einstein going off and starting a hedge fund.

我不擔心愛因斯坦出走搞對沖基金

CA: You're at a phase in your life now where you're actually investing, though,

(安) 你現在的人生階段是，一方面進出市場

at the other end of the supply chain --

但在供應鏈另一端

you're actually boosting mathematics across America.

也正促進全美數學發展

This is your wife, Marilyn.

這是您的夫人，瑪麗蓮

You're working on philanthropic issues together.

您倆攜手從事慈善工作

Tell me about that.

說說這個

JS: Well, Marilyn started --

(西) 嗯，瑪麗蓮－

there she is up there, my beautiful wife --

這就是她，我美麗的老婆

she started the foundation about 20 years ago.

20年前她創立一基金會

I think '94.

我想是1994年

I claim it was '93, she says it was '94,

我說1993, 她說1994

but it was one of those two years.

就這兩年間

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

We started the foundation, just as a convenient way to give charity.

我們創立基金會以便做慈善工作

She kept the books, and so on.

她負責管帳等事

We did not have a vision at that time, but gradually a vision emerged --

那時我們沒太多想法，後來逐漸找到方向——

which was to focus on math and science, to focus on basic research.

投入數學、科學和基礎研究

And that's what we've done.

這就是我們在做的

Six years ago or so, I left Renaissance and went to work at the foundation.

6年前我離開文藝復興公司，改在基金會工作

So that's what we do.

我們在做這個

CA: And so Math for America is basically investing

(安) Math for America計畫，基本上是投資

in math teachers around the country,

全國數學教師

giving them some extra income, giving them support and coaching.

提供額外收入並給予支持和指導

And really trying to make that more effective

讓計畫更有效運作

and make that a calling to which teachers can aspire.

號召有理想的老師

JS: Yeah -- instead of beating up the bad teachers,

(西) 是的——與其懲罰不適任者

which has created morale problems all through the educational community,

會拖累教育士氣的人

in particular in math and science,

特別在數理科

we focus on celebrating the good ones and giving them status.

我們著重鼓勵好老師，給他們地位

Yeah, we give them extra money, 15,000 dollars a year.

是的，我們每年給他們1萬5千美元額外收入

We have 800 math and science teachers in New York City in public schools today,

目前紐約市有800名公立學校數理教師

as part of a core.

是核心成員

There's a great morale among them.

他們士氣高昂

They're staying in the field.

專注在這領域

Next year, it'll be 1,000 and that'll be 10 percent

明年將增至1千人

of the math and science teachers in New York [City] public schools.

即紐約公立學校10％的數理教師

(Applause)

(掌聲)

CA: Jim, here's another project that you've supported philanthropically:

(安) 你還資助另一計畫

Research into origins of life, I guess.

研究生命的起源, 是吧

What are we looking at here?

這是什麼?

JS: Well, I'll save that for a second.

(西) 先擱一邊

And then I'll tell you what you're looking at.

等會再說這圖

Origins of life is a fascinating question.

生命源起令人著迷

How did we get here?

如何找到答案？

Well, there are two questions:

這要處理兩個問題

One is, what is the route from geology to biology --

一是，從地質學往生物學

how did we get here?

路在哪裡？

And the other question is, what did we start with?

二是，從哪下手?

What material, if any, did we have to work with on this route?

一路上需哪些材料?

Those are two very, very interesting questions.

這兩問題非常有趣

The first question is a tortuous path from geology up to RNA

問題一是條曲折路，從地質學到RNA

or something like that -- how did that all work?

之類的——這如何可能?

And the other, what do we have to work with?

問題二是需要什麼東西

Well, more than we think.

這超乎我們想像

So what's pictured there is a star in formation.

所以，這是張星體形成圖

Now, every year in our Milky Way, which has 100 billion stars,

在千億星體組成的銀河系裡

about two new stars are created.

每年都誕生兩顆星星

Don't ask me how, but they're created.

別問過程，反正就誕生了

And it takes them about a million years to settle out.

接著要百萬年才穩定下來

So, in steady state,

型態固定了

there are about two million stars in formation at any time.

宇宙形成中的星星隨時都有兩百萬顆

That one is somewhere along this settling-down period.

那顆星正逐漸穩定

And there's all this crap sort of circling around it,

周遭圍繞著廢棄物

dust and stuff.

塵埃和其他東西

And it'll form probably a solar system, or whatever it forms.

它可能形成太陽系，或者其他什麼

But here's the thing --

但關鍵是——

in this dust that surrounds a forming star

形成中星體周遭的塵土裡

have been found, now, significant organic molecules.

現在研究發現重要的有機分子

Molecules not just like methane, but formaldehyde and cyanide --

不只有甲烷，還有甲醛、氰化物

things that are the building blocks -- the seeds, if you will -- of life.

這種基礎物質——或者生命的種子

So, that may be typical.

這可能是典型過程

And it may be typical that planets around the universe

宇宙星體也可能經此典型過程

start off with some of these basic building blocks.

由基礎組成物建立起來

Now does that mean there's going to be life all around?

這代表到處都存在生命?

Maybe.

也許

But it's a question of how tortuous this path is

但問題在於這過程多麼迂迴曲折

from those frail beginnings, those seeds, all the way to life.

從渺小的起頭, 種子演變成生命

And most of those seeds will fall on fallow planets.

這類種子絕大多數落在休眠星體上

CA: So for you, personally,

(安) 那麼對你個人來說

finding an answer to this question of where we came from,

尋找答案，關於你我的起源

of how did this thing happen, that is something you would love to see.

和源起過程是你想知道的

JS: Would love to see.

(西) 我很期待

And like to know --

也想知道——

if that path is tortuous enough, and so improbable,

如果這路如此艱辛、渺茫

that no matter what you start with, we could be a singularity.

那不論源頭是什麼，你我都可能是個奇點

But on the other hand,

但另方面

given all this organic dust that's floating around,

由於懸浮在外的有機塵埃

we could have lots of friends out there.

遠方我們也許有很多朋友

It'd be great to know.

知道這個感覺很好

CA: Jim, a couple of years ago, I got the chance to speak with Elon Musk,

(安) 幾年前，我有機會和伊隆·馬斯克對談

and I asked him the secret of his success,

我請教他成功的秘訣

and he said taking physics seriously was it.

他說好好把物理當回事

Listening to you, what I hear you saying is taking math seriously,

而你所說的，我覺得是把數學當回事

that has infused your whole life.

它飽滿了你的人生

It's made you an absolute fortune, and now it's allowing you to invest

它給你帶來可觀的收入，可以投資

in the futures of thousands and thousands of kids across America and elsewhere.

全美、甚至其他地方數千位孩童的未來

Could it be that science actually works?

真是這學科的功勞嗎?

That math actually works?

數學真起作用了?

JS: Well, math certainly works. Math certainly works.

(西) 數學本身一定是確實有效的

But this has been fun.

但有趣的是

Working with Marilyn and giving it away has been very enjoyable.

和瑪麗蓮同心捐助也真是人生至樂

CA: I just find it -- it's an inspirational thought to me,

(安) 我發現——這啟發了我

that by taking knowledge seriously, so much more can come from it.

認真做好一門學問，更多好事由此而來

So thank you for your amazing life, and for coming here to TED.

感謝你來 TED 分享不凡的人生

Thank you.

謝謝你

Jim Simons!

詹姆士‧西蒙斯

(Applause)

(掌聲)