The mathematician who cracked Wall Street | Jim Simons

Prevoditelj: Tilen Pigac - EFZG Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

Chris Anderson: You were something of a mathematical phenom.

Chris Anderson: Bili ste svojevrsni matematički fenomen.

You had already taught at Harvard and MIT at a young age.

Predavali ste na Harvardu i MIT-u već kao mladić.

And then the NSA came calling.

I onda vas je zvala NSA.

What was that about?

Zbog čega?

Jim Simons: Well the NSA -- that's the National Security Agency --

Jim Simons: Pa, NSA -- to je Nacionalna sigurnosna agencija --

nisu me baš zvali.

they didn't exactly come calling.

They had an operation at Princeton, where they hired mathematicians

Imali su operaciju na Princetonu, gdje su zapošljavali matematičare

to attack secret codes and stuff like that.

da napadaju tajne kodove i takve stvari.

And I knew that existed.

I ja sam znao da to postoji.

And they had a very good policy,

Oni su imali veoma dobru politiku,

because you could do half your time at your own mathematics,

jer ste mogli pola svog vremena provoditi radeći svoju matematiku

and at least half your time working on their stuff.

i barem pola radeći na njihovim zadacima.

And they paid a lot.

I puno su plaćali.

Tako da je to bio neodoljiv poziv.

So that was an irresistible pull.

Pa sam otišao tamo.

So, I went there.

CA: Bili ste razbijač kodova.

CA: You were a code-cracker.

JS: I was.

JS: Tako je.

CA: Until you got fired.

CA: Dok vam nisu dali otkaz.

JS: Well, I did get fired. Yes.

JS: Pa, da, dobio sam otkaz. Da.

CA: How come?

CA: Kako to?

JS: Well, how come?

JS: Pa, kako to?

I got fired because, well, the Vietnam War was on,

Dobio sam otkaz, jer je bilo vrijeme Vijetnamskog rata

and the boss of bosses in my organization was a big fan of the war

i šef šefova u mojoj organizaciji je bio veliki obožavatelj rata

and wrote a New York Times article, a magazine section cover story,

i napisao je članak za New York Times, naslovnu priču za sekciju časopisa,

about how we would win in Vietnam.

o tome kako ćemo pobijediti u Vijetnamu.

And I didn't like that war, I thought it was stupid.

A meni se nije svidio taj rat, smatrao sam da je glup.

And I wrote a letter to the Times, which they published,

I napisao sam pismo Timesu, koje su objavili,

saying not everyone who works for Maxwell Taylor,

u kojem sam napisao da se, svi koji rade za Maxwella Taylora,

if anyone remembers that name, agrees with his views.

ako se itko sjeća tog imena, ne slažu s njegovim pogledima.

And I gave my own views ...

I dao sam svoje mišljenje ...

CA: Oh, OK. I can see that would --

CA: Oh, OK. To bi prouzročilo --

JS: ... which were different from General Taylor's.

JS: ... koje je bilo drukčije od mišljenja generala Taylora.

Ali na kraju, nitko nije ništa rekao.

But in the end, nobody said anything.

But then, I was 29 years old at this time, and some kid came around

Ali tada, imao sam 29 godina, neki klinac je došao

and said he was a stringer from Newsweek magazine

i rekao da je freelancer za časopis Newsweek

and he wanted to interview me and ask what I was doing about my views.

i htio me intervjuirati i pitati što radim sa svojim mišljenjem.

I reako sam mu: "Sada uglavnom radim matematiku,

And I told him, "I'm doing mostly mathematics now,

a kad rat završi, onda ću raditi većinom njihove stvari."

and when the war is over, then I'll do mostly their stuff."

Tada sam napravio jedinu inteligentnu stvar tog dana --

Then I did the only intelligent thing I'd done that day --

I told my local boss that I gave that interview.

rekao sam svom lokalnom šefu da sam dao taj intervju.

I on je pitao: " Što si rekao?"

And he said, "What'd you say?"

And I told him what I said.

I rekao sam mu što sam rekao.

I onda je on rekao: "Moram nazvati Taylora."

And then he said, "I've got to call Taylor."

He called Taylor; that took 10 minutes.

Nazvao je Taylora; to je trajalo 10 minuta.

I was fired five minutes after that.

Pet minuta nakon toga dobio sam otkaz.

CA: OK.

CA: OK.

JS: But it wasn't bad.

JS: Ali nije bilo loše.

CA: Nije bilo loše, jer ste otišli u Stony Brook

CA: It wasn't bad, because you went on to Stony Brook

and stepped up your mathematical career.

i uznapredovali u svojoj matematičkoj karijeri.

You started working with this man here.

Počeli ste raditi s ovim čovjekom.

Tko je to?

Who is this?

JS: Oh, [Shiing-Shen] Chern.

JS: Oh, Shiing-Shen Chern.

Chern was one of the great mathematicians of the century.

Chern je bio jedan od najboljih matematičara stoljeća.

I had known him when I was a graduate student at Berkeley.

Upoznao sam ga dok sam bio student na Berkeleyju.

Imao sam neke ideje,

And I had some ideas,

donio sam ih njemu i svidjele su mu se.

and I brought them to him and he liked them.

Together, we did this work which you can easily see up there.

Zajedno smo radili na ovome što lako možete vidjeti tamo gore.

There it is.

Eto ga.

CA: It led to you publishing a famous paper together.

CA: To je dovelo do vaše poznate objavljene studije s njim.

Can you explain at all what that work was?

Možete li imalo objasniti o čemu je bila?

JS: Ne.

JS: No.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

JS: I mean, I could explain it to somebody.

JS: Mislim, mogao bih ju objasniti nekome.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

CA: A da objasnite ovo?

CA: How about explaining this?

JS: Ne mnogima. Ne mnogim ljudima.

JS: But not many. Not many people.

CA: Mislim da ste mi rekli da ima veze sa sferama

CA: I think you told me it had something to do with spheres,

so let's start here.

pa hajdemo tu započeti.

JS: Well, it did, but I'll say about that work --

JS: Pa, ima, ali reći ću o tom radu --

it did have something to do with that, but before we get to that --

imalo je neke veze s tim, ali prije nego što dođemo do toga --

that work was good mathematics.

taj rad je bila dobra matematika.

I was very happy with it; so was Chern.

Bio sam jako zadovoljan s tim; i Chern također.

It even started a little sub-field that's now flourishing.

Time je čak započelo malo pod-područje koje sada cvijeta.

But, more interestingly, it happened to apply to physics,

Ali, još zanimljivije, ispalo je da je primijenjivo na fiziku,

something we knew nothing about -- at least I knew nothing about physics,

nešto o čemu nismo imali pojma -- barem ja nisam imao pojma o fizici,

and I don't think Chern knew a heck of a lot.

a mislim da ni Chern nije znao previše.

And about 10 years after the paper came out,

I otprilike 10 godina nakon izlaska studije,

a guy named Ed Witten in Princeton started applying it to string theory

čovjek zvan Ed Witten s Princetona je počeo primijenjivati to na teoriju struna

i ljudi u Rusiji su je počeli primijenjivati na "kondenziranu tvar."

and people in Russia started applying it to what's called "condensed matter."

Today, those things in there called Chern-Simons invariants

Danas, te stvari nazvane Chern-Simons invarijante,

have spread through a lot of physics.

su se proširile na mnoga područja fizike.

And it was amazing.

I bilo je nevjerojatno.

We didn't know any physics.

Nismo uopće poznavali fiziku.

It never occurred to me that it would be applied to physics.

Nikad mi nije palo na pamet da će se primijeniti u fizici.

But that's the thing about mathematics -- you never know where it's going to go.

Ali tako je s matematikom -- nikad ne znate kamo će otići.

CA: This is so incredible.

CA: To je nevjerojatno.

So, we've been talking about how evolution shapes human minds

Pričali smo kako evolucija oblikuje ljudski um

that may or may not perceive the truth.

koji može ili ne može percipirati istinu.

Somehow, you come up with a mathematical theory,

Vi ste nekako došli do matematičke teorije,

bez da ste znali imalo fizike,

not knowing any physics,

otkrijete dva desetljeća poslije da se koristi

discover two decades later that it's being applied

to profoundly describe the actual physical world.

u detaljnim opisima stvarnog fizičkog svijeta.

How can that happen?

Kako se to dogodi?

JS: God knows.

JS: Samo Bog zna.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

But there's a famous physicist named [Eugene] Wigner,

Ali postoji poznati fizičar, Eugene Wigner,

koji je napisao esej o nerazumljivoj učinkovitosti matematike.

and he wrote an essay on the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics.

Somehow, this mathematics, which is rooted in the real world

Ta matematika, koja je ukorijenjena u stvarnom svijetu na neki način --

in some sense -- we learn to count, measure, everyone would do that --

učimo brojati, mjerimo, svi to rade --

and then it flourishes on its own.

onda sama procvijeta.

But so often it comes back to save the day.

Ali često se vraća da nas spasi.

General relativity is an example.

Opća relativnost je primjer.

[Hermann] Minkowski had this geometry, and Einstein realized,

Hermann Minkowski je razvio tu geometriju i Einstein je shvatio

"Hey! It's the very thing in which I can cast general relativity."

"Hey! To je točno ono čime mogu prikazati opću relativnost."

So, you never know. It is a mystery.

Dakle, nikad ne zante. To je misterij.

Misterij.

It is a mystery.

CA: So, here's a mathematical piece of ingenuity.

CA: Dakle, ovdje je matematički dio dosjetljivosti.

Tell us about this.

Recite nam nešto o tome.

JS: Well, that's a ball -- it's a sphere, and it has a lattice around it --

JS: Pa, to je kugla -- sfera koja ima rešetku oko sebe --

you know, those squares.

znate, one kvadrate.

What I'm going to show here was originally observed by [Leonhard] Euler,

Ono što ću ovdje pokazati je prvi uočio Leonhard Euler,

the great mathematician, in the 1700s.

veliki matematičar, 1700-ih.

And it gradually grew to be a very important field in mathematics:

I to je postupno preraslo u važno polje matematike:

algebraic topology, geometry.

algebarska topologija, geometrija.

Ta studija tamo gore ima svoje korijene u ovome.

That paper up there had its roots in this.

So, here's this thing:

Evo o čem se radi:

it has eight vertices, 12 edges, six faces.

ima osam točaka, 12 rubova, šest strana.

And if you look at the difference -- vertices minus edges plus faces --

I ako pogledate razliku -- točke minus rubovi plus strane --

you get two.

dobijete dva.

OK, well, two. That's a good number.

OK, dakle, dva. To je dobar broj.

Evo drugog načina da to napravite -- ovo su trokuti --

Here's a different way of doing it -- these are triangles covering --

this has 12 vertices and 30 edges

12 točaka i 30 rubova

and 20 faces, 20 tiles.

i 20 strana, 20 pločica.

And vertices minus edges plus faces still equals two.

Točke minus rubovi plus strane je još uvijek dva.

And in fact, you could do this any which way --

I zapravo biste ovo mogli napraviti na bilo koji način --

pokriti ovo sa svim vrstama poligona i trokuta

cover this thing with all kinds of polygons and triangles

and mix them up.

i pomiješati ih.

And you take vertices minus edges plus faces -- you'll get two.

I onda točke minus rubovi plus strane -- i dobijete dva.

Evo drugog oblika.

Here's a different shape.

This is a torus, or the surface of a doughnut: 16 vertices

Ovo je torus, ili površina krafne: 16 točaka

covered by these rectangles, 32 edges, 16 faces.

pokrivenih ovim pravokutnicima, 32 ruba, 16 strana.

Vertices minus edges comes out to be zero.

Točke minus rubovi je nula.

It'll always come out to zero.

Uvijek će biti nula.

Every time you cover a torus with squares or triangles

Svaki put kad pokrijete torus kvadratima ili trokutima

ili nečim sličnim, dobit ćete nulu.

or anything like that, you're going to get zero.

So, this is called the Euler characteristic.

Ovo se zove Eulerova karakteristika.

And it's what's called a topological invariant.

I to je ono što se zove topološka invarijanta.

It's pretty amazing.

Doista je nevjerojatno.

Kako god da napravite to, uvijek ćete dobiti isti odgovor.

No matter how you do it, you're always get the same answer.

So that was the first sort of thrust, from the mid-1700s,

Dakle, to je bio prvi prodor, iz 1700-ih,

u predmet koji se dans zove algebarska topologija.

into a subject which is now called algebraic topology.

CA: And your own work took an idea like this and moved it

CA: I vaš je rad preuzeo ovu ideju i promaknuo je

into higher-dimensional theory,

u više-dimenzionalnu teoriju,

higher-dimensional objects, and found new invariances?

više-dimenzionalne predmete, i našao nove invarijante?

JS: Yes. Well, there were already higher-dimensional invariants:

JS: Da. Pa, već su postojale više-dimenzionalne invarijante:

Pontryagin classes -- actually, there were Chern classes.

Pontryaginove klase -- zapravo, bile su Chernove klase.

There were a bunch of these types of invariants.

Postojala je hrpa tih vrsta invarijanti.

I was struggling to work on one of them

Mučio sam se radeći na jednoj

and model it sort of combinatorially,

i modelirajući je kombinatorički,

instead of the way it was typically done,

umjesto na način na koji se to tipično radi,

and that led to this work and we uncovered some new things.

i to je dovelo do ovog rada i otkrili smo nove stvari.

Ali da nije bilo g.Eulera --

But if it wasn't for Mr. Euler --

who wrote almost 70 volumes of mathematics

koji je napisao gotovo 70 djela o matematici

and had 13 children,

i imao 13 djece,

who he apparently would dandle on his knee while he was writing --

koje je navodno njihao na koljenima dok je pisao --

if it wasn't for Mr. Euler, there wouldn't perhaps be these invariants.

da nije bilo g.Eulera, vjerojatno ne bi bilo ovih invarijanti.

CA: OK, to nam je dalo barem uvid u nevjerojatan um koji stoji iza toga.

CA: OK, so that's at least given us a flavor of that amazing mind in there.

Let's talk about Renaissance.

Pričajmo o Renaissance-i.

Because you took that amazing mind and having been a code-cracker at the NSA,

Zato što ste promatrali taj nevjerojatan um i zato što ste bili razbijač kodova u NSA,

you started to become a code-cracker in the financial industry.

počeli ste raditi kao razbijač kodova u financijskoj industriji.

I think you probably didn't buy efficient market theory.

Vjerojatno niste vjerovali u učinkovitu tržišnu teoriju.

Somehow you found a way of creating astonishing returns over two decades.

Nekako ste našli način za kreaciju zadivljujućih prihoda u zadnjih 20 godina.

The way it's been explained to me,

Ovako su mi to objasnili,

what's remarkable about what you did wasn't just the size of the returns,

ono što je izvanredno u tome što ste napravili, nisu samo prihodi,

it's that you took them with surprisingly low volatility and risk,

nego kako ste ih stvorili sa začuđujuće niskim volatilitetom i rizikom,

compared with other hedge funds.

uspoređujući s drugim hedge fondovima.

So how on earth did you do this, Jim?

Kako ste, pobogu, to napravili, Jim?

JS: Napravio sam to skupivši divnu grupu ljudi.

JS: I did it by assembling a wonderful group of people.

When I started doing trading, I had gotten a little tired of mathematics.

Kada sam se počeo baviti trgovinom, malo sam se umorio od matematike.

I was in my late 30s, I had a little money.

Bio sam u kasnim 30-im, imao sam malo novca.

Počeo sam trgovati i išlo je dobro.

I started trading and it went very well.

Zaradio sam dosta novca čistom srećom.

I made quite a lot of money with pure luck.

I mean, I think it was pure luck.

Barem ja mislim da je bila čista sreća.

It certainly wasn't mathematical modeling.

Sigurno nije bilo matematičko modeliranje.

But in looking at the data, after a while I realized:

Ali kada sam pogledao podatke, nakon nekog vremena sam shvatio:

it looks like there's some structure here.

Izgleda kao da postoji neka struktura u tome.

Zaposlio sam par matematičara i počeli smo izrađivati neke modele --

And I hired a few mathematicians, and we started making some models --

just the kind of thing we did back at IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses].

iste kakve smo radili na Institutu za obrambenu analizu.

Dizajnirate algoritme, testirate ih na računalu.

You design an algorithm, you test it out on a computer.

Does it work? Doesn't it work? And so on.

Funkcionira? Ne funkcionira? I tako dalje.

CA: Can we take a look at this?

CA: Možemo li pogledati ovo?

Because here's a typical graph of some commodity.

Zato što je ovdje tipični graf neke robe.

I look at that, and I say, "That's just a random, up-and-down walk --

Gledam u to i kažem: "To je samo nasumičan hod gore-dolje --

maybe a slight upward trend over that whole period of time."

možda mali trend povećanja tijekom cijelog vremena."

How on earth could you trade looking at that,

Kako bi, pobogu, mogli trgovati gledajući u to

and see something that wasn't just random?

i vidjeti nešto što nije samo nasumično?

JS: In the old days -- this is kind of a graph from the old days,

JS: U starim ddanima -- ovo je graf iz starih dana,

commodities or currencies had a tendency to trend.

roba ili valuta su imale tendenciju rasta.

Not necessarily the very light trend you see here, but trending in periods.

Ne nužno nizak rast kakav vidite ovdje, ali periodični rast.

And if you decided, OK, I'm going to predict today,

I ako ste odlučili, OK, predvidit ću danas,

by the average move in the past 20 days --

prema prosječnom pomicanju u posljednjih 20 godina --

maybe that would be a good prediction, and I'd make some money.

možda bi to bilo dobro predviđanje i zaradio bih novac.

And in fact, years ago, such a system would work --

I zapravo, prije mnogo godina, ovakav bi sustav funkcionirao --

not beautifully, but it would work.

ne lijepo, ali bi funkcionirao.

You'd make money, you'd lose money, you'd make money.

Zaradili biste, izgubili novac, zaradili.

But this is a year's worth of days,

Ali ovo je godišnja vrijednost

and you'd make a little money during that period.

i zaradili biste malo novca tijekom tog vremena.

It's a very vestigial system.

To je veoma neprofitabilan sustav.

CA: So you would test a bunch of lengths of trends in time

CA: Dakle, vi biste testirali hrpu duljina porasta u vremenu

i vidjeli predviđa li, na primjer,

and see whether, for example,

a 10-day trend or a 15-day trend was predictive of what happened next.

10-dnevni porast ili 15-dnevni porast što će se sljedeće dogoditi.

JS: Naravno, probali biste sve to i vidjeli što najbolje funkcionira.

JS: Sure, you would try all those things and see what worked best.

Trend-following would have been great in the '60s,

Praćenje rasta bi bilo odlično 60-ih

and it was sort of OK in the '70s.

i bilo bi OK 70-ih.

80-ih više nije bilo.

By the '80s, it wasn't.

CA: Because everyone could see that.

CA: Zato što su svi mogli vidjeti to.

So, how did you stay ahead of the pack?

Dakle, kako ste ostali ispred krda?

JS: Ostali smo ispred krda, jer smo pronašli druge pristupe --

JS: We stayed ahead of the pack by finding other approaches --

shorter-term approaches to some extent.

kraće pristupe.

Najvažnije je bilo prikupiti nevjerojatnu količinu podataka --

The real thing was to gather a tremendous amount of data --

and we had to get it by hand in the early days.

u početku smo to morali raditi ručno.

Išli smo u Federalnu rezervu i kopirali povijesne trendove rasta

We went down to the Federal Reserve and copied interest rate histories

and stuff like that, because it didn't exist on computers.

i takve stvari, jer to nije postojalo na računalima.

We got a lot of data.

Dobili smo mnogo podataka.

And very smart people -- that was the key.

I mnogo pametnih ljudi -- to je bio ključ.

I didn't really know how to hire people to do fundamental trading.

Nisam znao kako da zaposlim ljude da se bave osnovnim trgovanjem.

I had hired a few -- some made money, some didn't make money.

Zaposlio sam ih par -- neki su zarađivali, a neki ne.

I couldn't make a business out of that.

Nisam mogao stvoriti business iz toga.

But I did know how to hire scientists,

Ali znao sam kako zaposliti znanstvenike,

because I have some taste in that department.

jer sam se iskusio u tom području.

Dakle, to smo i napravili.

So, that's what we did.

And gradually these models got better and better,

I postepeno su ti modeli postajali sve bolji i bolji,

and better and better.

i bolji i bolji.

CA: You're credited with doing something remarkable at Renaissance,

CA: Zaslužni ste za nešto nevjerojatno što ste napravili u Renaissence-u,

which is building this culture, this group of people,

izgradili ste tu kulturu, tu grupu ljudi,

who weren't just hired guns who could be lured away by money.

koji nisu bili zamo zaposlene puške koje bi namamio novac.

Their motivation was doing exciting mathematics and science.

Njihova je motivacija bila uzbudljiva matematika i znanost.

JS: Well, I'd hoped that might be true.

JS: Pa, nadao bih se da je to istina.

But some of it was money.

Ali ipak je dio bio novac.

CA: They made a lot of money.

CA: Puno su zarađivali.

JS: I can't say that no one came because of the money.

JS: Ne mogu reći da nitko nije došao zbog novca.

I think a lot of them came because of the money.

Mislim da ih je mnogo došlo zbog novca.

Ali su također došli, jer bi bilo zabavno.

But they also came because it would be fun.

CA: What role did machine learning play in all this?

CA: Koju ulogu u svemu tome je imalo mašinsko učenje?

JS: In a certain sense, what we did was machine learning.

JS: U određenom smislu, ono što smo mi radili je bilo mašinsko učenje.

You look at a lot of data, and you try to simulate different predictive schemes,

Pogledate puno podataka i pokušate simulirati različite predviđajuće sheme,

until you get better and better at it.

dok ne postanete sve bolji i bolji u tome.

It doesn't necessarily feed back on itself the way we did things.

Nije nužno dobiti povratnu informaciju na način na koji smo mi radili.

But it worked.

Ali funkcioniralo je.

CA: Dakle, te različite predviđajuće sheme mogu biti prilično divlje i neočekivane.

CA: So these different predictive schemes can be really quite wild and unexpected.

I mean, you looked at everything, right?

Mislim, vi ste sve gledali, je li tako?

Gledali ste vrijeme, duljinu haljina, politička mišljenja.

You looked at the weather, length of dresses, political opinion.

JS: Yes, length of dresses we didn't try.

JS: Da, duljinu haljina nismo probali.

CA: What sort of things?

CA: Kakve stvari?

JS: Well, everything.

JS: Pa, sve.

Everything is grist for the mill -- except hem lengths.

Sve je važno.

Weather, annual reports,

Vrijeme, godišnja izvješća,

kvartalna izvješća, povijesni podaci, obujmi, što god.

quarterly reports, historic data itself, volumes, you name it.

Whatever there is.

Što god postoji.

Uzimamo terabajte podataka svaki dan.

We take in terabytes of data a day.

And store it away and massage it and get it ready for analysis.

I pohranjujemo ih te ih spremamo za analizu.

You're looking for anomalies.

Tražite anomalije.

You're looking for -- like you said,

Tražite -- kako ste rekli,

the efficient market hypothesis is not correct.

učinkovitu tržišnu hipotezu koja nije točna.

CA: But any one anomaly might be just a random thing.

CA: Ali jedna anomalija može biti slučajna.

So, is the secret here to just look at multiple strange anomalies,

Dakle, je li tajna ovdje samo gledati više čudnih anomalija

and see when they align?

i vidjeti zašto se redaju?

JS: Any one anomaly might be a random thing;

JS: Svaka anomalija može biti slučajna;

however, if you have enough data you can tell that it's not.

ipak, ako imate dovoljno podataka možete shvatiti da nije.

You can see an anomaly that's persistent for a sufficiently long time --

Možete vidjeti anomaliju koja je dugotrajna --

the probability of it being random is not high.

vjerojatnost da je slučajna nije visoka.

But these things fade after a while; anomalies can get washed out.

Ali te stvare izblijede nakon nekog vremena, anomalije se isperu.

So you have to keep on top of the business.

Zato morate biti na vrhu businessa.

CA: A lot of people look at the hedge fund industry now

CA: Mnogi ljudi gledaju hedge fond industriju

and are sort of ... shocked by it,

i na neki način su šokirani njome,

by how much wealth is created there,

koliko se tamo bogatstva stvara

i koliko talenta ide onamo.

and how much talent is going into it.

Do you have any worries about that industry,

Imate li ikakve brige za tu industriju

and perhaps the financial industry in general?

ili možda za financijsku industriju općenito?

Kind of being on a runaway train that's --

Nekako je na tračnici koja --

I don't know -- helping increase inequality?

ne znam --- pomaže u povećanju nejednakosti?

How would you champion what's happening in the hedge fund industry?

Kako biste opravdali sve što se događa u hedge fond industriji?

JS: I think in the last three or four years,

JS: Mislim da u zadnje tri ili četiri godine

hedge funds have not done especially well.

hedge fondovi nisu posebno dobro prošli.

We've done dandy,

Mi smo odlično poslovali,

but the hedge fund industry as a whole has not done so wonderfully.

ali hedge fond industrija u cjelini, ne baš odlično.

The stock market has been on a roll, going up as everybody knows,

Dionice su divljale, povećavale se kao što svi znaju

and price-earnings ratios have grown.

i omjer zarada je porastao.

So an awful lot of the wealth that's been created in the last --

Dakle, ogromno bogatstvo koje je stvoreno u posljednjih --

let's say, five or six years -- has not been created by hedge funds.

ajmo reći, pet ili šest godina -- nisu stvorili hedge fondovi.

People would ask me, "What's a hedge fund?"

Ljudi bi me pitali: "Što su hedge fondovi?"

And I'd say, "One and 20."

I ja bi reako :"Jedan i 20."

Which means -- now it's two and 20 --

Što znači -- danas je dva i 20 --

it's two percent fixed fee and 20 percent of profits.

to je dva posto fiksnog uloga i 20 posto profita.

Hedge funds are all different kinds of creatures.

Hedge fondovi su različite vrste bića.

CA: Rumor has it you charge slightly higher fees than that.

CA: Priča se da naplačujete nešto više od toga.

JS: We charged the highest fees in the world at one time.

JS: U jednom trenutku smo naplačivali najviše u svijetu.

Five and 44, that's what we charge.

Pet i 44, toliko mi naplačujemo.

CA: Five and 44.

CA: Pet i 44.

Dakle, pet posto uloga, 44 posto više profita.

So five percent flat, 44 percent of upside.

You still made your investors spectacular amounts of money.

I dalje ste svojim investitorima stvorili spektakularne zarade.

JS: We made good returns, yes.

JS: Imali smo dobre zarade, da.

People got very mad: "How can you charge such high fees?"

Ljudi su se jako naljutili: "Kako možete naplačivati toliko?"

I said, "OK, you can withdraw."

Ja sam rekao: "OK, možete se povući."

But "How can I get more?" was what people were --

Ali "Kako mogu dobiti više?", to je zanimalo ljude --

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

But at a certain point, as I think I told you,

Ali u određenom trenutku, mislim da sam vam rekao to,

kupili smo sve investitore, jer je postojao kapacitet fonda.

we bought out all the investors because there's a capacity to the fund.

CA: But should we worry about the hedge fund industry

CA: Ali trebamo li se brinuti da hedge fond industrija

privlači previše svjetskih odličnih matematičara i drugih talenata

attracting too much of the world's great mathematical and other talent

to work on that, as opposed to the many other problems in the world?

da rade na tome, umjesto na mnogim drugim svjetskim problemima?

JS: Well, it's not just mathematical.

JS: Pa, nisu samo matematičari.

We hire astronomers and physicists and things like that.

Zapošljavamo astronome i fizičare i takve ljude.

I don't think we should worry about it too much.

Mislim da ne bismo trebali previše brinuti o tome.

It's still a pretty small industry.

To je još uvijek veoma mala industrija.

And in fact, bringing science into the investing world

I zapravo, dovođenje znanosti u svijet investicija

has improved that world.

je poboljšalo svijet.

It's reduced volatility. It's increased liquidity.

Smanjen volatilitet. Povećana likvidnost.

Spreads are narrower because people are trading that kind of stuff.

Širenja su uža, jer ljudi trguju takvim stvarima.

So I'm not too worried about Einstein going off and starting a hedge fund.

Tako da nisam zabrinut da će Einstein odustati od svog rada i osnovati hedge fond.

CA: You're at a phase in your life now where you're actually investing, though,

CA: Sada ste u fazi života kada zapravo investirate, iako

at the other end of the supply chain --

s druge strane opskrbnog lanca --

you're actually boosting mathematics across America.

vi zapravo potičete matematiku u cijeloj Americi.

This is your wife, Marilyn.

Ovo je vaša žena, Marilyn.

You're working on philanthropic issues together.

Zajedno radite na filantropskim problemima.

Tell me about that.

Recite mi nešto o tome.

JS: Well, Marilyn started --

JS: Pa, Marilyn je osnovala --

eno je tamo gore, moja prekrasna supruga --

there she is up there, my beautiful wife --

she started the foundation about 20 years ago.

ona je osnovala zakladu prije otprilike 20 godina.

I think '94.

Mislim '94.

I claim it was '93, she says it was '94,

Ja tvrdim '93., ona kaže da je '94.,

but it was one of those two years.

ali bilo je jedne od te dvije godine.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

We started the foundation, just as a convenient way to give charity.

Osnovali smo zakladu, samo kao prikladan način doniranja.

She kept the books, and so on.

Ona je bila knjigovođa, itd.

We did not have a vision at that time, but gradually a vision emerged --

U to vrijeme nismo imali viziju, ali postupno se ona pojavila --

which was to focus on math and science, to focus on basic research.

a to je bilo fokusiranje na matematiku i znanost, na osnovna istraživanja.

And that's what we've done.

I to smo napravili.

Six years ago or so, I left Renaissance and went to work at the foundation.

Prije šest godina ili tako nešto, napustio sam Reneissance i otišao raditi u zakladu.

So that's what we do.

Dakle, to radimo.

CA: And so Math for America is basically investing

CA: Dakle, Math of America investira

in math teachers around the country,

u profesore matematike iz cijele zemlje,

giving them some extra income, giving them support and coaching.

daje im nešto više prihoda, daje im podršku i usavršavanja.

And really trying to make that more effective

I zapravo pokušava to učiniti učinkovitijim

and make that a calling to which teachers can aspire.

i učiniti to nečim čemu profesori teže.

JS: Yeah -- instead of beating up the bad teachers,

JS: Da -- umjesto da prebijamo loše profesore,

which has created morale problems all through the educational community,

što je proizvelo moralne probleme u cijeloj prosvjetnoj zajednici,

posebice u matematici i znanostima,

in particular in math and science,

we focus on celebrating the good ones and giving them status.

mi se fokusiramo na slavljenje dobrih i dajemo im status.

Yeah, we give them extra money, 15,000 dollars a year.

Da, dajemo im dodatan novac, 15,000 dolara godišnje.

We have 800 math and science teachers in New York City in public schools today,

Imamo 800 profesora matematike i znanosti u newyorškim javnim školama danas,

as part of a core.

kao dio jezgre.

Velika je moralnost među njima.

There's a great morale among them.

They're staying in the field.

Ostaju u tom polju.

Next year, it'll be 1,000 and that'll be 10 percent

Sljedeće godine, bit će ih 1,000 i to će biti 10 posto

of the math and science teachers in New York [City] public schools.

newyorških javnoškolskih profesora matematike i znanosti.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

CA: Jim, here's another project that you've supported philanthropically:

CA: Jim, evo još jednog projekta koji ste filantropski poduprli;

Istraživanje postanka života, pretpostavljam.

Research into origins of life, I guess.

What are we looking at here?

Što to ovdje gledamo?

JS: Well, I'll save that for a second.

JS: Pa, pričekat ću sekundu.

And then I'll tell you what you're looking at.

I onda ću vam reći što gledamo.

Origins of life is a fascinating question.

Postanak života je fascinantno pitanje.

How did we get here?

Kako smo dospjeli ovdje?

Pa, postoje dva pitanja:

Well, there are two questions:

One is, what is the route from geology to biology --

Jedno je, koji je put od geologije do biologije --

how did we get here?

kako smo dospjeli ovdje?

And the other question is, what did we start with?

A drugo je pitanje, čime smo započeli?

What material, if any, did we have to work with on this route?

S kojim materijalom, ako s ikojim, smo morali raditi na ovom putu?

Those are two very, very interesting questions.

To su dva veoma, veoma zanimljiva pitanja.

The first question is a tortuous path from geology up to RNA

Prvo je pitanje mučan put od geologije do RNA

or something like that -- how did that all work?

ili nešto tako -- kako je to sve funkcioniralo?

And the other, what do we have to work with?

A drugo, s čim moramo raditi?

Well, more than we think.

Pa, s više nego što mislimo.

Dakle, ono što je na ovoj slici je zvijezda u nastanku.

So what's pictured there is a star in formation.

Now, every year in our Milky Way, which has 100 billion stars,

Svake godine u našoj Mliječnoj Stazi, koja ima 100 milijardi zvijezda,

about two new stars are created.

nastanu otprilike dvije nove zvijezde.

Don't ask me how, but they're created.

Nemojte me pitati kako, ali nastanu.

And it takes them about a million years to settle out.

I treba im otprilike miljun godina da se raspadnu.

Dakle, u stabilnom stanju

So, in steady state,

there are about two million stars in formation at any time.

ima oko dva miljuna zvijezda koje nastaju u bilo koje vrijeme.

That one is somewhere along this settling-down period.

Ova je negdje u razdoblju stabiliziranja.

I tu su sva ova sranja koja kruže oko nje,

And there's all this crap sort of circling around it,

prašina i tome slično.

dust and stuff.

And it'll form probably a solar system, or whatever it forms.

I vjerojatno će formirati solarni sustav, ili što god već formira.

But here's the thing --

Ali, evo u čemu je stvar --

in this dust that surrounds a forming star

u ovoj prašini koja okružuje zvijezde

nađene su značajne organske molekule.

have been found, now, significant organic molecules.

Molecules not just like methane, but formaldehyde and cyanide --

Molekule, ne samo poput metana, nego poput formaldehida i cijanida --

stvari koje izgrađuju -- sjeme, može i tako -- života.

things that are the building blocks -- the seeds, if you will -- of life.

To može biti tipično.

So, that may be typical.

And it may be typical that planets around the universe

I može biti tipično da planeti u svemiru

start off with some of these basic building blocks.

nastaju od nekih osnovnih građevnih tvari poput tih.

Now does that mean there's going to be life all around?

Znači li to da će život zauvijek postojati?

Maybe.

Možda.

But it's a question of how tortuous this path is

Ali pitanje je koliko je mučan taj put

od tih nepouzdanih početaka, tog sjemena, sve do života.

from those frail beginnings, those seeds, all the way to life.

And most of those seeds will fall on fallow planets.

I većina tog sjemena će pasti na neobrađene planete.

CA: So for you, personally,

CA: Dakle, za vas osobno,

pronaći odgovor na pitanje odakle dolazimo,

finding an answer to this question of where we came from,

of how did this thing happen, that is something you would love to see.

pitanje kako se ovo dogodilo, to je nešto što biste voljeli vidjeti.

JS: Would love to see.

JS: Volio bih to vidjeti,

And like to know --

I volio bih znati --

if that path is tortuous enough, and so improbable,

ako je taj put dovoljno težak i toliko nevjerojatan,

da bez obzira s čim počnemo, mogli bismo biti jedinstveni.

that no matter what you start with, we could be a singularity.

But on the other hand,

Ali s druge strane,

given all this organic dust that's floating around,

kada vidimo svu tu organsku prašinu koja lebdi uokolo,

mogli bismo imati puno prijatelja tamo.

we could have lots of friends out there.

It'd be great to know.

Bilo bi super znati.

CA: Jim, prije nekoliko godina sam imao priliku razgovarati s Elonom Muskom

CA: Jim, a couple of years ago, I got the chance to speak with Elon Musk,

and I asked him the secret of his success,

i pitao sam ga za tajnu njegova uspjeha,

and he said taking physics seriously was it.

a on je odgovorio da je tajna njegova uspjeha što je ozbiljno shvaćao fiziku.

Listening to you, what I hear you saying is taking math seriously,

Slušajući vas, ono što čujem da vi govorite je ozbiljno shvaćanje matematike,

that has infused your whole life.

koja je obuzela vaš cijeli život.

Obogatila vas je i sad vam dopušta da investirate

It's made you an absolute fortune, and now it's allowing you to invest

in the futures of thousands and thousands of kids across America and elsewhere.

u budućnost tisuće i tisuće djece u Americi i drugdje.

Could it be that science actually works?

Može li biti da znanost zapravo funkcionira?

That math actually works?

Da matematika zapravo funkcionira?

JS: Well, math certainly works. Math certainly works.

JS: Pa, matematika zasigurno funkcionira. Matematika sigurno funkcionira.

But this has been fun.

Ali ovo je bilo zabavno.

Working with Marilyn and giving it away has been very enjoyable.

Raditi s Marilyin i donirati je bilo veoma ugodno.

CA: I just find it -- it's an inspirational thought to me,

CA: Ja smatram -- za mene je to inspirativna misao,

that by taking knowledge seriously, so much more can come from it.

da kada znanje shvaćamo ozbiljno, toliko više može proizaći iz toga.

So thank you for your amazing life, and for coming here to TED.

Pa vam zahvaljujem na nevjerojatnom životu i na dolasku na TED.

Thank you.

Hvala Vam.

Jim Simons!

Jim Simons!

(Applause)

(Pljesak)