请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell
Reviewer: Morton Bast
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翻译人员: Peng Shao
校对人员: Shang Sinian
00:17
My talk today is about something
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我今天的演讲的内容
00:19
maybe a couple of you have already heard about.
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也许你们中间的一些人已经听说过了。
00:21
It's called the Arab Spring.
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它就是阿拉伯之春。
00:23
Anyone heard of it?
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有没有人听说过?
00:25
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
00:28
So in 2011, power shifted,
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在2011年,权力发生了转移,
00:33
from the few to the many,
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从少数人手中到多数人手里,
00:36
from oval offices to central squares,
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从椭圆形办公室转移到了中心广场上,
00:39
from carefully guarded airwaves
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从被严密控制的管道
00:42
to open-source networks.
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到开发的网络。
00:45
But before Tahrir was a global symbol of liberation,
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但是在Tahrir广场成为解放的符号之前,
00:50
there were representative surveys
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已经有有代表性的调查
00:52
already giving people a voice
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给了人们一个表达自己的话语的机会
00:55
in quieter but still powerful ways.
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用一种无声的,但是有力的方法。
00:58
I study Muslim societies around the world at Gallup.
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我在Gallup公司研究世界各地的穆斯林社会。
01:03
Since 2001,
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从2001年开始,
01:06
we've interviewed hundreds of thousands of people --
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我们采访了成千上万的人们——
01:09
young and old, men and women,
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各个年龄的,男的和女的,
01:11
educated and illiterate.
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受过教育的,和没有受过教育的。
01:13
My talk today draws on this research
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我今天的演讲利用这些研究
01:16
to reveal why Arabs rose up
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来揭示为什么阿拉伯人会起来反抗
01:20
and what they want now.
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和他们现在想要什么。
01:23
Now this region's very diverse,
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现在这个地区非常多元化,
01:27
and every country is unique.
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所以每个国家都很独特。
01:29
But those who revolted
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但是那些起来反抗的人们
01:30
shared a common set of grievances
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都有同意的苦难
01:33
and have similar demands today.
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并且有同样的诉求。
01:36
I'm going to focus a lot of my talk on Egypt.
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我会在我的演讲中很大程度上集中讲述埃及。
01:39
It has nothing to do with the fact that I was born there, of course.
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当然,这并不是因为我出生在那里。
01:43
But it's the largest Arab country
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而是因为它是最大的阿拉伯国家
01:46
and it's also one with a great deal of influence.
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而且它有很大的影响力。
01:50
But I'm going to end by widening the lens to the entire region
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但是最后我会把视角放大到整个地区
01:54
to look at the mundane topics
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来讨论更广泛性的话题
01:56
of Arab views of religion and politics
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针对阿拉伯世界的宗教和政治
01:59
and how this impacts women,
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和它们如何影响妇女,
02:02
revealing some surprises along the way.
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这个过程中会讲到一些令人意外的发现。
02:06
So after analyzing mounds of data,
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在分析了成堆的数据之后,
02:10
what we discovered was this:
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我们发现:
02:13
Unemployment and poverty alone
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仅仅是失业率和贫困本身
02:16
did not lead to the Arab revolts of 2011.
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并不是引起2011年大规模阿拉伯世界反抗的唯一原因。
02:20
If an act of desperation by a Tunisian fruit vendor
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如果说一个突尼斯水果商贩的铤而走险
02:24
sparked these revolutions,
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直接导致了这次革命,
02:25
it was the difference between what Arabs experienced
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那么就是阿拉伯人所经历的
02:29
and what they expected
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和他们的期盼之间的差距
02:32
that provided the fuel.
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是这次革命的内因。
02:34
To tell you what I mean,
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为了说明我的意思,
02:35
consider this trend in Egypt.
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请大家考虑在埃及的这种趋势。
02:37
On paper the country was doing great.
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从纸面上看,这个国家的状况非常好。
02:40
In fact, it attracted accolades
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事实上,
02:43
from multinational organizations
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国际组织都对它给予了很高评价
02:45
because of its economic growth.
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因为它的经济发展。
02:47
But under the surface was a very different reality.
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但是表面之下的,是非常不同的现实。
02:50
In 2010, right before the revolution,
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在2010年,就在革命之前,
02:54
even though GDP per capita
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即使从国民生产总值看
02:56
had been growing at five percent for several years,
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已经连续数年以5%的速度增长,
02:59
Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives.
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埃及人从来没有感到生活如此的糟糕。
03:04
Now this is very unusual,
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这非常反常,
03:06
because globally we find that, not surprisingly,
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因为从全球看,我们发现,一点儿也不出意料的是,
03:09
people feel better as their country gets richer.
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当他们的国家变得富裕的时候,人们的感受应该更好。
03:13
And that's because they have better job opportunities
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那是因为他们有更多的工作机会
03:16
and their state offers better social services.
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并且他们的国家也会提供更好的社会服务。
03:19
But it was exactly the opposite in Egypt.
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但是在埃及情况正好相反。
03:21
As the country got more well-off,
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当国家的情况变好的时候,
03:24
unemployment actually rose
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失业率而发是上升的
03:27
and people's satisfaction
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人们的满意度
03:29
with things like housing and education plummeted.
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对于像住房和教育这样的事物直线下降。
03:35
But it wasn't just anger at economic injustice.
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但是这并不仅仅是针对经济不公平的愤怒。
03:39
It was also people's deep longing for freedom.
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这也是人们对于自由的长久的诉求。
03:47
Contrary to the clash of civilizations theory,
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和文明理论相反,
03:51
Arabs didn't despise Western liberty,
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阿拉伯人并不轻视西方式的自由,
03:55
they desired it.
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他们非常渴望它。
03:57
As early as 2001,
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早在2001,
03:59
we asked Arabs, and Muslims in general around the world,
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我们问阿拉伯人,和全球的穆斯林,
04:03
what they admired most about the West.
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关于西方,他们最渴望的是什么。
04:06
Among the most frequent responses
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在最常见的答案中
04:08
was liberty and justice.
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是自由和公正。
04:11
In their own words to an open-ended question
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以他们自己的语言回答一个开放式的问题时,
04:14
we heard, "Their political system is transparent
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我们听到这样的话,“他们的政治体制更透明
04:17
and it's following democracy in its true sense."
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“并且真正实现了民主。”
04:20
Another said it was "liberty and freedom
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另一个答案是:“解放和自由
04:22
and being open-minded with each other."
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和它们的完全相溶。”
04:25
Majorities as high as 90 percent and greater
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高达90%以上的人
04:29
in Egypt, Indonesia and Iran
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埃及,印度尼西亚和伊朗
04:32
told us in 2005
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在2005年告诉我们
04:34
that if they were to write a new constitution
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他们将要起草新的宪法
04:39
for a theoretical new country
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对于 一个理论上的新国家
04:42
that they would guarantee freedom of speech
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它能保证言论自由
04:44
as a fundamental right,
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作为一项基本的自由,
04:47
especially in Egypt.
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尤其是在埃及。
04:49
Eighty-eight percent said moving toward greater democracy
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88%的人说,向着更为民族的方向发展
04:53
would help Muslims progress --
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会有助于穆斯林的发展——
04:55
the highest percentage of any country we surveyed.
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在所有的国家中这是最高的比例了。
05:00
But pressed up against these democratic aspirations
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但是(民众)表达这种民主的诉求
05:03
was a very different day-to-day experience,
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却是另外一种情况,
05:06
especially in Egypt.
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尤其是在埃及。
05:09
While aspiring to democracy the most,
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一方面,对于民主非常的渴求,
05:12
they were the least likely population in the world
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他们又是世界上最不可能
05:17
to say that they had actually voiced their opinion
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向官方表达自己的意见的人群
05:21
to a public official in the last month --
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上个月
05:23
at only four percent.
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这个数据是仅仅4%。
05:27
So while economic development made a few people rich,
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所以一方面,经济发展让一些人先富起来,
05:31
it left many more worse off.
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却让更多的人状况更差。
05:34
As people felt less and less free,
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当人们感到越来越不自由,
05:38
they also felt less and less provided for.
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他们也感受到得到的越来越少。
05:42
So rather than viewing their former regimes
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所以,人们并没有把以前的政权看作是
05:45
as generous if overprotective fathers,
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慷慨的过度保护自己的长辈,
05:49
they viewed them as essentially prison wardens.
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他们把他们视作是监狱的典狱长。
05:53
So now that Egyptians have ended Mubarak's 30-year rule,
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所以现在埃及人终止了穆巴拉克长达30年的统治,
05:58
they potentially could be
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他们可以成为
06:00
an example for the region.
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这个地区的一个榜样。
06:02
If Egypt is to succeed
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如果埃及可以成功地
06:04
at building a society based on the rule of law,
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建立一个法治之上的社会,
06:08
it could be a model.
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它可以成为一个榜样。
06:10
If, however,
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如果,然而
06:12
the core issues that propelled the revolution aren't addressed,
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导致革命的核心问题不能被解决,
06:16
the consequences could be catastrophic --
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后果可能是灾难性的——
06:20
not just for Egypt,
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不仅仅是对埃及,
06:21
but for the entire region.
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而是对整个地区来说。
06:24
The signs don't look good, some have said.
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迹象看起来并不好,有些人说。
06:28
Islamists, not the young liberals that sparked the revolution,
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伊斯兰份子,而不是引起革命的开明派
06:33
won the majority in Parliament.
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赢得了议会的大多数。
06:35
The military council
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军方
06:37
has cracked down on civil society and protests
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已经镇压了平民的抗议
06:41
and the country's economy continues to suffer.
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并且这个国家的经济还在继续遭受打击。
06:45
Evaluating Egypt on this basis alone, however,
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单独从这个基础上考查埃及,而且,
06:50
ignores the real revolution.
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忽视了真正的革命。
06:54
Because Egyptians are more optimistic
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因为埃及人更加乐观
06:56
than they have been in years,
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和过去的数年相比,
06:59
far less divided on religious-secular lines
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宗教差别造成的分离远远比
07:03
than we would think
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我们想象的要小
07:04
and poised for the demands of democracy.
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而且表现出了渴求民主的姿态。
07:08
Whether they support Islamists or liberals,
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不管他们是支持伊斯兰份子,还是开明派,
07:11
Egyptians' priorities for this government are identical,
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埃及人对于政府优先考虑的问题的看法非常一致,
07:14
and they are jobs, stability and education,
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那就是工作,稳定和教育,
07:17
not moral policing.
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并不是道德上的管制。
07:19
But most of all,
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但是归根结底
07:20
for the first time in decades,
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在过去数十年中,首次
07:22
they expect to be active participants, not spectators,
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他们想活跃地成为参与者,而不是旁观者,
07:25
in the affairs of their country.
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在他们国家的事物中。
07:28
I was meeting with a group of newly-elected parliamentarians
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我曾经和一群刚刚当选的议员们见面
07:32
from Egypt and Tunisia
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埃及和突尼斯的,
07:33
a couple of weeks ago.
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在几个周之前。
07:35
And what really struck me about them
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真正使得我对于他们感到惊奇的,
07:38
was that they weren't only optimistic,
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是他们不仅仅乐观,
07:43
but they kind of struck me as nervous,
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他们让我惊奇的对于一个更好的
07:46
for lack of a better word.
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世界的渴求。
07:47
One said to me,
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他们中的一个人对我说,
07:48
"Our people used to gather in cafes to watch football" --
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“我们的人曾经习惯于聚集在咖啡馆看足球比赛”——
07:51
or soccer, as we say in America --
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或者是我们北美叫的所谓英式足球——
07:54
"and now they gather to watch Parliament."
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“现在他们聚集在一起看议会会议。”
07:59
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:02
"They're really watching us,
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“他们真的在看我们,
08:04
and we can't help but worry
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我们不由自主的担心
08:08
that we're not going to live up to their expectations."
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我们不能达到他们的期望。”
08:11
And what really struck me
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真正让我震撼的
08:12
is that less than 24 months ago,
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是在不到两年之前,
08:14
it was the people that were nervous
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真正让人们感到紧张的
08:17
about being watched by their government.
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是担心他们被他们的政府监视。
08:20
And the reason that they're expecting a lot
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他们有那么多期待的原因
08:23
is because they have a new-found hope for the future.
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正是因为他们有一个刚刚建立起来的,对于未来的期望。
08:26
So right before the revolution
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所以就在革命发生之前
08:28
we said that Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives,
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我们说,埃及人对于自己的生活从来没有感到如此的糟糕,
08:31
but not only that, they thought their future would be no better.
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但是不仅仅是那样,他们认为他们的未来也不会更好。
08:36
What really changed after the ouster of Mubarak
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当穆巴拉克被赶下台之后,真正发生改变的,
08:39
wasn't that life got easier.
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不是生活变得容易了。
08:41
It actually got harder.
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实际上更困难了。
08:43
But people's expectations for their future
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但是人们对于未来的期许
08:46
went up significantly.
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在明显的变好。
08:48
And this hope, this optimism,
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这种期待,这种乐观,
08:50
endured a year of turbulent transition.
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在一年的动荡中一直在延续着。
08:55
One reason that there's this optimism
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他们如此乐观的一个原因
08:58
is because, contrary to what many people have said,
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是因为,和很多人说的不同,
09:02
most Egyptians think things really have changed in many ways.
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大多数埃及人都认为,事情在很多方面都真得在发生变化。
09:06
So while Egyptians were known
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所以,以前埃及人
09:09
for their single-digit turnout
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参加选举的投票率是个位数
09:12
in elections before the revolution,
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在革命之前,
09:15
the last election had around 70 percent voter turnout --
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上次选举的投票率是在70%左右——
09:18
men and women.
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男人和女人。
09:20
Where scarcely a quarter believed in the honesty of elections in 2010 --
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2010年选举的时候,仅仅有大概25%的人相信选举的可信度——
09:25
I'm surprised it was a quarter --
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我很惊奇是四分之一——
09:27
90 percent thought that this last election was honest.
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90%的人认为上次选举是可信的。
09:31
Now why this matters
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这一点很重要,
09:33
is because we discovered a link
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是因为我们发现了一种联系:
09:36
between people's faith in their democratic process
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在人们对于他们民主进程的信念
09:40
and their faith that oppressed people
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和他们对于被 压迫的人们
09:44
can change their situation
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可以改变他们的处境的这种信念之间
09:46
through peaceful means alone.
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这种改变仅仅是通过和平的方式。
09:51
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
10:00
Now I know what some of you are thinking.
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现在我知道你们中的一些人在想什么。
10:03
The Egyptian people,
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埃及人,
10:05
and many other Arabs who've revolted and are in transition,
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和其他的那些站起来,处在变革中的阿拉伯人,
10:08
have very high expectations of the government.
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对政府有很高的期许。
10:12
They're just victims of a long-time autocracy,
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他们是长期的独裁统治的受害者,
10:17
expecting a paternal state
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向往着一个父亲般的国家
10:19
to solve all their problems.
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能解决他们所有的问题。
10:21
But this conclusion would ignore
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但是这样的结论忽视了
10:25
a tectonic shift taking place in Egypt
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正在埃及发生的一次上层建筑的变革
10:28
far from the cameras in Tahrir Square.
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而不仅仅是在Tahrir广场摄像机拍摄下的景象。
10:32
And that is Egyptians' elevated expectations
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那就是,埃及人对于他们自己提出了更高
10:36
are placed first on themselves.
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的希望。
10:39
In the country once known for its passive resignation,
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在一个一直以来被认为是非常顺从的国家,
10:43
where, as bad as things got,
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在那儿,事情变得很糟糕,
10:45
only four percent expressed their opinion to a public official,
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只有4%的人向公众的官方表达他们的不满,
10:48
today 90 percent tell us
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今天,90%的人告诉我们
10:52
that if there's a problem in their community,
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如果他们的社会中有问题,
10:54
it's up to them to fix it.
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将由他们来决定解决这些问题。
10:57
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
11:04
And three-fourths
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四分之三的人
11:06
believe they not only have the responsibility,
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相信他们不仅仅有责任,
11:09
but the power to make change.
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而且有能力做出改变。
11:12
And this empowerment
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这种情况
11:14
also applies to women,
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也发生在女性身上,
11:17
whose role in the revolts
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她们在变革中的角色
11:19
cannot be underestimated.
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不能被低估。
11:21
They were doctors and dissidents,
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她们中有医生,持不同政见者,
11:23
artists and organizers.
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艺术家和组织者。
11:25
A full third of those who braved tanks and tear gas
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多达三分之一的和坦克和催泪弹作斗争的人
11:30
to ask or to demand liberty and justice in Egypt
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争取埃及自由和公正
11:35
were women.
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的是妇女。
11:37
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
11:42
Now people have raised some real concerns
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现在人们开始认真的关注
11:45
about what the rise of Islamist parties means for women.
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伊斯兰派别的兴起对于妇女意味着什么。
11:49
What we've found about the role of religion in law
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我们发现,关于宗教在法律
11:53
and the role of religion in society
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和社会中的角色的结论
11:55
is that there's no female consensus.
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是妇女的地位的不一致。
11:58
We found that women in one country
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我们发现妇女在一个国家
12:03
look more like the men in that country
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看起来更像是男人在另外一个国家
12:05
than their female counterparts across the border.
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而不是像那个国家里的女性。
12:09
Now what this suggests
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这一点给我们的启示是
12:11
is that how women view religion's role in society
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女性如何看待宗教在社会中的角色
12:15
is shaped more by their own country's culture and context
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更多地是由她们自己的国家的文化和环境塑造的
12:20
than one monolithic view
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而不是由单一的观点
12:23
that religion is simply bad for women.
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这种观点是,宗教就是简单地对女性不利。
12:25
Where women agree, however,
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女性们认为,
12:29
is on their own role,
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她们自己的角色
12:31
and that it must be central and active.
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必须是起到关键作用,并且是主动的。
12:33
And here is where we see the greatest gender difference within a country --
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这是我们看到的在一个国家里,性别的差距最大的地方——
12:38
on the issue of women's rights.
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在女性权利的问题上。
12:41
Now how men feel about women's rights
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现在,女性对于女性权利的感觉
12:44
matters to the future of this region.
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对于这个地区的将来是很重要的。
12:47
Because we discovered a link
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因为我们发现了一种关联
12:49
between men's support for women's employment
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在男性对于女性就业的支持率
12:53
and how many women are actually employed
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和多少妇女实际被雇佣之间
12:56
in professional fields in that country.
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在那个国家的职业领域。
13:00
So the question becomes,
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问题就变成了,
13:01
What drives men's support for women's rights?
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什么导致了男性对于女性权利的支持?
13:05
What about men's views of religion and law?
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男人对于宗教和法律的观点是怎么样的?
13:12
[Does] a man's opinion
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一个人
13:15
of the role of religion in politics
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对于整治中宗教的角色的观点
13:18
shape their view of women's rights?
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是不是塑造他们对于女性权利的看法?
13:21
The answer is no.
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答案是不。
13:23
We found absolutely no correlation,
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我们没有发现任何关联,
13:26
no impact whatsoever,
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无论如何没有任何相互影响
13:27
between these two variables.
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在这两个变量之间。
13:30
What drives men's support for women's employment
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决定男性对于女性就业的支持的
13:34
is men's employment,
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是男人的就业,
13:37
their level of education
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他们受教育的水平
13:39
as well as a high score
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和
13:42
on their country's U.N. Human Development Index.
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联合国人类发展指数的高分数。
13:46
What this means
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这意味着
13:47
is that human development,
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人类的发展
13:50
not secularization,
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而不是把宗教从教育中分离
13:52
is what's key to women's empowerment
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是女性参与的关键
13:55
in the transforming Middle East.
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在中东变革中。
13:59
And the transformation continues.
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这种变革还在继续。
14:02
From Wall Street to Mohammed Mahmoud Street,
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从华尔街到Mohammed Mahmoud大街
14:06
it has never been more important
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理解普通人的理想理想
14:08
to understand the aspirations
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从来没有如此的
14:10
of ordinary people.
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重要过。
14:12
Thank you.
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谢谢。
14:14
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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