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00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell
Reviewer: Morton Bast
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譯者: Anny Chung
審譯者: Regina Chu
00:17
My talk today is about something
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我今天的演講主題
00:19
maybe a couple of you have already heard about.
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也許你們之中一些人已經聽說過了,
00:21
It's called the Arab Spring.
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它的名字叫作「阿拉伯之春」。
00:23
Anyone heard of it?
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有人聽說過嗎?
00:25
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
00:28
So in 2011, power shifted,
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在西元2011年,權勢的重心
00:33
from the few to the many,
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由少數轉移至多數,
00:36
from oval offices to central squares,
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自白宮移往市民的中央廣場,
00:39
from carefully guarded airwaves
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由被謹慎看管的廣播頻道
00:42
to open-source networks.
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轉移至開放的社群網路。
00:45
But before Tahrir was a global symbol of liberation,
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但在塔利爾廣場成為國際間自由解放的象徵之前,
00:50
there were representative surveys
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具代表性的民意調查
00:52
already giving people a voice
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已經悄悄但權威性地
00:55
in quieter but still powerful ways.
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為人民發聲。
00:58
I study Muslim societies around the world at Gallup.
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我在蓋洛普 (美國民調機構) 研究世界各地的穆斯林社區。
01:03
Since 2001,
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自2001年,
01:06
we've interviewed hundreds of thousands of people --
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我們已經訪問了數十萬人,
01:09
young and old, men and women,
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老的少的,男性與女性,
01:11
educated and illiterate.
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知識份子與文盲。
01:13
My talk today draws on this research
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今天的演講將引用這些研究結果
01:16
to reveal why Arabs rose up
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來揭發為什麼阿拉伯人民憤而崛起,
01:20
and what they want now.
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以及他們現在到底想得到什麼。
01:23
Now this region's very diverse,
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你要知道這個地區非常多元化,
01:27
and every country is unique.
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而且每一個國家都是獨一無二的。
01:29
But those who revolted
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但是,那些參與革命的人們,
01:30
shared a common set of grievances
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曾懷著共同的怨憤不平,
01:33
and have similar demands today.
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並於今日有著相似的訴求。
01:36
I'm going to focus a lot of my talk on Egypt.
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我將會把演講的重心放在埃及。
01:39
It has nothing to do with the fact that I was born there, of course.
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當然,這跟我在那裡出生的事實毫無關聯。
01:43
But it's the largest Arab country
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它是最大的阿拉伯國家,
01:46
and it's also one with a great deal of influence.
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並擁有極大的影響力。
01:50
But I'm going to end by widening the lens to the entire region
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但在演講結束前我會把鏡頭放大到整個區域,
01:54
to look at the mundane topics
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來探索一些較世俗的課題。
01:56
of Arab views of religion and politics
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像是,阿拉伯人們對宗教與政治的看法,
01:59
and how this impacts women,
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以及這些看法如何影響阿拉伯女性,
02:02
revealing some surprises along the way.
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並於途中揭開一些令人訝異的結果。
02:06
So after analyzing mounds of data,
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所以在分析了如小山般高的資料之後,
02:10
what we discovered was this:
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我們發現了這個結果:
02:13
Unemployment and poverty alone
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失業率上升和人民的窮困
02:16
did not lead to the Arab revolts of 2011.
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並不是引起2011年阿拉伯國家革命的唯一原因。
02:20
If an act of desperation by a Tunisian fruit vendor
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若一位突尼西亞水果販的絕望之行
02:24
sparked these revolutions,
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是引起革命的火花,
02:25
it was the difference between what Arabs experienced
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那麼阿拉伯人所經歷的
02:29
and what they expected
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與他們的期望之間的鴻溝,
02:32
that provided the fuel.
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正是革命延續的燃料。
02:34
To tell you what I mean,
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我來舉個例,
02:35
consider this trend in Egypt.
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想想埃及的這個趨勢:
02:37
On paper the country was doing great.
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表面上這個國家運行得很好。
02:40
In fact, it attracted accolades
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埃及的數據還吸引
02:43
from multinational organizations
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許多國際組織
02:45
because of its economic growth.
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讚賞它的經濟成長。
02:47
But under the surface was a very different reality.
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然而在表面之下的現實卻孑然不同。
02:50
In 2010, right before the revolution,
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在2010年,革命的前夕,
02:54
even though GDP per capita
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雖然人均GDP(國內生產毛額)
02:56
had been growing at five percent for several years,
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已數年以5%的速率成長,
02:59
Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives.
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埃及人卻從來沒有對自己的生活如此悲觀。
03:04
Now this is very unusual,
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這挺奇怪的。
03:06
because globally we find that, not surprisingly,
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因為於國際間我們通常預料,
03:09
people feel better as their country gets richer.
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國家愈富足,人民感覺就愈良好。
03:13
And that's because they have better job opportunities
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這是因為他們擁有更好的工作機會,
03:16
and their state offers better social services.
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而他們的政府也提供更完善的社會福利。
03:19
But it was exactly the opposite in Egypt.
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但在埃及卻不然。
03:21
As the country got more well-off,
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隨著國家愈來愈富有,
03:24
unemployment actually rose
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失業率竟然上升,
03:27
and people's satisfaction
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而人民對於生活和教育等的品質,
03:29
with things like housing and education plummeted.
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滿意度直直下滑。
03:35
But it wasn't just anger at economic injustice.
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但不只是對於經濟正義之不公的怨憤,
03:39
It was also people's deep longing for freedom.
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人民對自由的深深渴望也同時促進革命。
03:47
Contrary to the clash of civilizations theory,
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不同於文明衝突論的觀點,
03:51
Arabs didn't despise Western liberty,
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阿拉伯人並不厭恨西方的自由主義,
03:55
they desired it.
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他們渴望自由。
03:57
As early as 2001,
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早於2001年,
03:59
we asked Arabs, and Muslims in general around the world,
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我們就問世界各地的阿拉伯人和穆斯林,
04:03
what they admired most about the West.
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他們對西方社會最讚賞的是什麼。
04:06
Among the most frequent responses
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我們最常得到的答案之一,
04:08
was liberty and justice.
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就是自由與正義。
04:11
In their own words to an open-ended question
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我們聽見他們如此回答這個開放式的問題:
04:14
we heard, "Their political system is transparent
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「他們(西方國家)的政治系統很透明,
04:17
and it's following democracy in its true sense."
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並真實地實現民主。」
04:20
Another said it was "liberty and freedom
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另一個人回答「擁有自由,
04:22
and being open-minded with each other."
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以及能夠以開放的心胸對待彼此。」
04:25
Majorities as high as 90 percent and greater
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甚至有高達90%或更多的民眾,
04:29
in Egypt, Indonesia and Iran
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來自於埃及、印尼、和伊朗,
04:32
told us in 2005
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於2005年就告訴我們,
04:34
that if they were to write a new constitution
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若他們要為一個假想的新國度,
04:39
for a theoretical new country
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寫一份新憲法,
04:42
that they would guarantee freedom of speech
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他們會將視言論自由為人民的基本權利
04:44
as a fundamental right,
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並加以保障。
04:47
especially in Egypt.
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這在埃及尤其顯著。
04:49
Eighty-eight percent said moving toward greater democracy
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88%的人認為增進民主
04:53
would help Muslims progress --
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將有助於穆斯林教徒發展。
04:55
the highest percentage of any country we surveyed.
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這是我們所訪問的國家之中,百分比最高的。
05:00
But pressed up against these democratic aspirations
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然而人們日常生活的經驗
05:03
was a very different day-to-day experience,
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和這些民主志願形成強烈對比。
05:06
especially in Egypt.
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尤其是在埃及。
05:09
While aspiring to democracy the most,
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雖然他們是最嚮往民主的族群,
05:12
they were the least likely population in the world
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但他們卻是全世界最不可能
05:17
to say that they had actually voiced their opinion
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於調查中回答說自己曾在最近一個月
05:21
to a public official in the last month --
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對公職人員表達看法的族群。
05:23
at only four percent.
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僅有4%。
05:27
So while economic development made a few people rich,
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所以經濟發展讓少數人富有的同時,
05:31
it left many more worse off.
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卻使多數人生活情況更糟。
05:34
As people felt less and less free,
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隨著人民感到愈來愈不自由,
05:38
they also felt less and less provided for.
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他們也同時感受經濟愈來愈不穩定。
05:42
So rather than viewing their former regimes
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以致於他們對當時政權的看法,
05:45
as generous if overprotective fathers,
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並不是如慷慨但過分保護的嚴父,
05:49
they viewed them as essentially prison wardens.
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而實際是像獄卒一般。
05:53
So now that Egyptians have ended Mubarak's 30-year rule,
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如今埃及人成功地結束穆巴拉克三十年的獨裁,
05:58
they potentially could be
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他們有機會成為
06:00
an example for the region.
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整個地區的模範。
06:02
If Egypt is to succeed
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倘若埃及成功地
06:04
at building a society based on the rule of law,
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組織一個基於法治的新社會,
06:08
it could be a model.
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它有可能成為一個範例。
06:10
If, however,
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但是,
06:12
the core issues that propelled the revolution aren't addressed,
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如果那些激起革命的核心問題並沒有受到重視的話,
06:16
the consequences could be catastrophic --
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將會引發災難性的後果。
06:20
not just for Egypt,
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而且不只是對於埃及,
06:21
but for the entire region.
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而是整個地區。
06:24
The signs don't look good, some have said.
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有些人說,現在的跡象並不看好。
06:28
Islamists, not the young liberals that sparked the revolution,
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伊斯蘭主義者,而不是那些引起革命的年輕自由主義份子,
06:33
won the majority in Parliament.
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贏得了議會的多數席位。
06:35
The military council
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軍事委員組織
06:37
has cracked down on civil society and protests
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已嚴格鎮壓民間社會及抗議行動。
06:41
and the country's economy continues to suffer.
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而埃及的經濟仍持續受創。
06:45
Evaluating Egypt on this basis alone, however,
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但單靠這些依據衡量埃及的現況,
06:50
ignores the real revolution.
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並沒有考慮到真正的革命結果。
06:54
Because Egyptians are more optimistic
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因為現在的埃及人民比起從前
06:56
than they have been in years,
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要樂觀多了。
06:59
far less divided on religious-secular lines
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他們看待宗教的隔閡,
07:03
than we would think
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比我們想像的要和睦多了,
07:04
and poised for the demands of democracy.
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並且認真地迎接民主的種種責任。
07:08
Whether they support Islamists or liberals,
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不管他們支持伊斯蘭主義者或是自由主義者,
07:11
Egyptians' priorities for this government are identical,
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埃及人對這個政府的主要期望都一模一樣:
07:14
and they are jobs, stability and education,
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要工作、穩定政局、和教育,
07:17
not moral policing.
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而不是道德監控。
07:19
But most of all,
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最重要的昰,
07:20
for the first time in decades,
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於數十年來,
07:22
they expect to be active participants, not spectators,
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他們第一次期望成為國家政治中主動的參與者,
07:25
in the affairs of their country.
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而不是觀眾。
07:28
I was meeting with a group of newly-elected parliamentarians
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我幾星期前和一些埃及和突尼西亞
07:32
from Egypt and Tunisia
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新勝選的議員
07:33
a couple of weeks ago.
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一起會面。
07:35
And what really struck me about them
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他們引起我注意的在於,
07:38
was that they weren't only optimistic,
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他們不只是樂觀,
07:43
but they kind of struck me as nervous,
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他們在我眼中看起來有些緊張,
07:46
for lack of a better word.
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我不知該如何形容得更好。
07:47
One said to me,
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其中一人對我說:
07:48
"Our people used to gather in cafes to watch football" --
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「我們的人民以前都一起在酒館看足球(football)」
07:51
or soccer, as we say in America --
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-- 就是我們美國人說的soccer --
07:54
"and now they gather to watch Parliament."
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「而現在他們都聚在一塊看議會。」
07:59
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:02
"They're really watching us,
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「他們其實是在看著我們,
08:04
and we can't help but worry
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而我們不自禁擔心,
08:08
that we're not going to live up to their expectations."
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會不會沒有辦法滿足他們的期待。」
08:11
And what really struck me
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引起我深深共鳴的是,
08:12
is that less than 24 months ago,
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不到兩年前,
08:14
it was the people that were nervous
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是人民感到緊張,
08:17
about being watched by their government.
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害怕被政府監控。
08:20
And the reason that they're expecting a lot
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而他們現在期望很高的原因是
08:23
is because they have a new-found hope for the future.
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因為他們對於未來有著新的希望。
08:26
So right before the revolution
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我之前說,在革命發生前夕
08:28
we said that Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives,
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埃及人對他們的生活感觀是有史以來最差的,
08:31
but not only that, they thought their future would be no better.
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並認為他們的未來並不可能過得更好。
08:36
What really changed after the ouster of Mubarak
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穆巴拉克下台所帶來的真正改變,
08:39
wasn't that life got easier.
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並不是使人民生活變得輕鬆,
08:41
It actually got harder.
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事實上人民的生活反而更艱辛。
08:43
But people's expectations for their future
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而是人們對於未來的期望,
08:46
went up significantly.
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顯著提升。
08:48
And this hope, this optimism,
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這充滿希望和樂觀的態度,
08:50
endured a year of turbulent transition.
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克服了這一年以來動盪的過渡時期。
08:55
One reason that there's this optimism
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而這樂觀態度背後的原因之一
08:58
is because, contrary to what many people have said,
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是因為,相反於許多人所說的,
09:02
most Egyptians think things really have changed in many ways.
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多數的埃及人真正相信他們的世界有了許多改變。
09:06
So while Egyptians were known
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即使我們知道埃及人
09:09
for their single-digit turnout
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於革命前的選舉
09:12
in elections before the revolution,
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投票率僅有個位數。
09:15
the last election had around 70 percent voter turnout --
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最近一次的選舉投票率高達70%,
09:18
men and women.
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男性與女性共同參與。
09:20
Where scarcely a quarter believed in the honesty of elections in 2010 --
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在2010年的選舉中,不到四分之一的人相信選舉是公正的
09:25
I'm surprised it was a quarter --
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-- 我其實覺得有四分之一已挺令人訝異了 --
09:27
90 percent thought that this last election was honest.
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相較之下,90%的人民認為最近這一次選舉是公正誠實的。
09:31
Now why this matters
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為甚麼這如此重要?
09:33
is because we discovered a link
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因為我們發現
09:36
between people's faith in their democratic process
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人民對於民主程序的信任
09:40
and their faith that oppressed people
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和他們對於以和平的方式
09:44
can change their situation
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就能改變受欺壓的人民生活的牢固信念,
09:46
through peaceful means alone.
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環環相扣。
09:51
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
10:00
Now I know what some of you are thinking.
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然而我知道你們心裡都在想些什麼。
10:03
The Egyptian people,
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埃及人民
10:05
and many other Arabs who've revolted and are in transition,
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以及其他參與革命的阿拉伯人正在過渡時期,
10:08
have very high expectations of the government.
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對政府有極高的期許。
10:12
They're just victims of a long-time autocracy,
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他們僅是長久以來獨裁政權的受害者,
10:17
expecting a paternal state
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期待著國家
10:19
to solve all their problems.
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如褓母般地解決他們所有的難題。
10:21
But this conclusion would ignore
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但是如此的結論卻忽略
10:25
a tectonic shift taking place in Egypt
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發生在埃及的社會構造轉變。
10:28
far from the cameras in Tahrir Square.
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這些改變並不為塔利爾廣場中的攝影機所捕捉。
10:32
And that is Egyptians' elevated expectations
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這正是埃及人民所提高的期許,
10:36
are placed first on themselves.
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首先是針對自己。
10:39
In the country once known for its passive resignation,
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這個國家的人們曾以被動屈服聞名,
10:43
where, as bad as things got,
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即使情況再糟,
10:45
only four percent expressed their opinion to a public official,
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也僅有4%的人會向公職人員反應。
10:48
today 90 percent tell us
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今日90%的民眾向我們說,
10:52
that if there's a problem in their community,
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他們的社區若是出了問題
10:54
it's up to them to fix it.
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他們所有人都有責任解決。
10:57
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
11:04
And three-fourths
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而且,三分之四的民眾
11:06
believe they not only have the responsibility,
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相信他們不只有責任
11:09
but the power to make change.
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還有能力,來引起這些改變。
11:12
And this empowerment
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這支強心劑作用的對象
11:14
also applies to women,
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也包含阿拉伯女性。
11:17
whose role in the revolts
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她們在革命中的地位,
11:19
cannot be underestimated.
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可不容忽視。
11:21
They were doctors and dissidents,
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她們有些是醫生和異議者,
11:23
artists and organizers.
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藝術家和總籌。
11:25
A full third of those who braved tanks and tear gas
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在那些為了埃及追求自由與正義
11:30
to ask or to demand liberty and justice in Egypt
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勇敢面對坦克車以及催淚瓦斯的人民中,
11:35
were women.
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有三分之一是女性。
11:37
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
11:42
Now people have raised some real concerns
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最近有些人提出實質的顧慮,
11:45
about what the rise of Islamist parties means for women.
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擔憂伊斯蘭主義政黨的崛起對於女性的影響。
11:49
What we've found about the role of religion in law
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我們發現的昰,針對宗教於法律的地位
11:53
and the role of religion in society
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以及宗教在社會上的角色這個問題,
11:55
is that there's no female consensus.
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於女性中並無共識。
11:58
We found that women in one country
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我們發現一個國家中女性的看法,
12:03
look more like the men in that country
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比較類似該國家的男性,
12:05
than their female counterparts across the border.
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而與鄰國的女性想法歧異。
12:09
Now what this suggests
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這告訴我們,
12:11
is that how women view religion's role in society
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女性如何看待宗教信仰於社會中扮演的角色
12:15
is shaped more by their own country's culture and context
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會受他們國家的文化現況影響,
12:20
than one monolithic view
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而不是單一化地認為,
12:23
that religion is simply bad for women.
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宗教對於女性是不利的。
12:25
Where women agree, however,
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但是多數的女性都同意,
12:29
is on their own role,
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他們自己所扮演的角色
12:31
and that it must be central and active.
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必須是積極並有重要性的。
12:33
And here is where we see the greatest gender difference within a country --
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而我們就是在女性權益這塊,看到同一國家中
12:38
on the issue of women's rights.
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兩性看法的最大差異。
12:41
Now how men feel about women's rights
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而男性如何看待女權,
12:44
matters to the future of this region.
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將影響這個地區的未來。
12:47
Because we discovered a link
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因為我們發現,
12:49
between men's support for women's employment
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男性對女性工作權的支持度
12:53
and how many women are actually employed
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和女性於專業領域的就業率
12:56
in professional fields in that country.
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是緊緊相關的。
13:00
So the question becomes,
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所以問題變成,
13:01
What drives men's support for women's rights?
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是什麼因素使男性支持女性權益?
13:05
What about men's views of religion and law?
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和男性對於宗教和法律的看法有關嗎?
13:12
[Does] a man's opinion
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男人對於
13:15
of the role of religion in politics
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宗教於政治中扮演的角色的看法,
13:18
shape their view of women's rights?
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會影響他們對女性權益的意見嗎?
13:21
The answer is no.
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答案是不會。
13:23
We found absolutely no correlation,
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我們在這兩個因子間,
13:26
no impact whatsoever,
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找不出任何關聯
13:27
between these two variables.
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或任何影響。
13:30
What drives men's support for women's employment
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影響男性對於女性就業的支持度
13:34
is men's employment,
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其實是男性就業率、
13:37
their level of education
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他們的教育程度、
13:39
as well as a high score
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以及他們國家
13:42
on their country's U.N. Human Development Index.
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是否於聯合國人類發展指數(HDI)獲得高分。
13:46
What this means
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意思是
13:47
is that human development,
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人類發展,
13:50
not secularization,
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而不是去宗教化,
13:52
is what's key to women's empowerment
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才是在瞬息萬變的中東地區
13:55
in the transforming Middle East.
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增進女性權利的關鍵。
13:59
And the transformation continues.
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這個蛻變會持續延燒。
14:02
From Wall Street to Mohammed Mahmoud Street,
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自華爾街至Mohammed Mahmoud街(開羅街名),
14:06
it has never been more important
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現今最重要不過的事,
14:08
to understand the aspirations
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就是了解普通百姓
14:10
of ordinary people.
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心中的願望。
14:12
Thank you.
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謝謝。
14:14
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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