Do 9 out of 10 dentists really recommend that toothpaste? | Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi

Transcriber:

When it comes to toothpaste commercials,

翻译人员: Mia Cheng 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

当说到牙膏的广告，

you've probably heard claims like,

你可能会在广告里听到这样的说法：

nine out of 10 dentists recommend "Brighter, Whiter."

十分之九的牙医都会推荐 使牙齿“更亮、更白”的牙膏。

Or maybe it's four out of five or 80 percent.

或者可能是五分之四或百分之八十。

But either way, these companies expect you to see a wall of white coats,

但无论哪一种，商家都希望你 看到一排白大褂牙医，

trust their authority and think no further.

然后相信专家的权威， 别自己思考了。

Now that approach is basically BS, and you probably know it's BS,

这种方法说的就是废话， 你可能也知道这是废话。

but the question is: How can you trust your BS radar?

但问题是， 你是否相信自己的“废话”雷达？

[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]

【我正常吗？ 和莫娜莎拉比一起】

Well, when I'm faced with suspicious statistics,

当我碰到这些可疑的数据，

I tend to ask myself three questions.

我会问自己三个问题。

First, what were people actually asked?

首先，被问的人究竟是谁？

Sometimes the question that is put to survey respondents

有时，一些问题的问卷受访者，

is wildly different than the one that ends up on posters and billboards.

与最终出现在 海报和广告牌上的人完全不同。

For instance, in 2007, one toothpaste ad in the UK

比如，2007 年英国的一个牙膏广告，

claimed that more than 80 percent of dentists recommended their products.

声称百分之八十的牙医 推荐了他们的产品。

What that sounds like

这听起来好像，

is that a majority of dentists prefer their product over all others,

大部分的牙医喜欢他们的产品 远胜其他产品。

that those dentists were asked if this was the best product.

就好像那些牙医被问到的问题是 这是否是最好的产品。

But when the Advertising Standards Authority looked into it,

但是当广告标准局调查这个广告时，

they discovered that the dentists were asked to recommend several toothpastes,

他们发现牙医被问的问题是 能否推荐一些牙膏，

not one single choice.

并不是单一选项的问题。

In fact, another brand was found to be almost as popular.

事实上，另外一个品牌 几乎同样受欢迎。

To no one's surprise, the ad was deemed misleading.

不出所料，该广告被认定 具有误导性。

Now, the second question to ask is: What aren’t you telling me?

第二个问题， 你没告诉我的内容是什么？

In the 1970s, a sugarless gum company claimed that four out five dentists

1970 年代，一家无糖口香糖公司 声称五位牙医里有四位

recommended their product.

推荐了他们的产品。

Now, their slogan was pretty upfront

现在，他们的宣传词坦然承认，

about the fact that these dentists were only recommending the product

这些牙医只是向嚼口香糖的人

to people who already chewed gum,

推荐了他们的产品。

but they weren't so forthcoming about the fifth dentist.

但他们对第五位没推荐 他们产品的牙医没那么坦然。

Decades later, the manufacturer made fun of it in a new ad campaign

几十年后，商家在新的广告中，

where they blamed the fifth dentist's different thinking

打趣指责了这第五位牙医。

on a freak accident, like a sudden squirrel bite.

说他有不同的想法是因为 一次奇怪的意外，比如被松鼠咬伤。

Now, since I'm all about the deviations in the data,

现在，因为我只关心数据的偏差，

I decided to look into this a little bit further.

所以我决定进一步研究这个事。

In fact, it's not that the fifth dentist recommended chewing sugary gum.

事实上，并不是第五个牙医 推荐有糖口香糖。

What they don't say is that most of them recommended

他们没说的是，大多数牙医

that their patients don't chew gum at all.

根本不推荐嚼口香糖。

The last thing to ask is: What was the survey context?

最后一个问题， 调查的背景是怎么样的？

Because there's a really big difference

因为当你说：

between saying "nine out of 10 dentists agree,"

“十位牙医里九位都同意”

and "nine out of these 10 dentists agree."

与“在这里的十位牙医里有九位同意” 意思完全不同。

Size matters and so does methodology.

数据样本大小很重要，方法也是。

According to the American Dental Association,

根据美国牙医协会的数据，

there are about 200,000 registered dentists in the US.

美国大概有 20 万注册牙医。

I’m not going to bore you with the maths here,

这里我不想让数学让你觉得无聊，

but to get a statistically significant sample of 200,000 people,

但是要获得 20 万人有意义的统计样本，

you need about 400.

你大概需要 400 人。

So if you're reading in the fine print that only 50 dentists were surveyed,

所以如果你在细则中读到， 只有 50 名牙医接受了调查。

you know that's not statistically significant.

你就知道这在统计学角度看， 数据结果并不可靠。

It's just a marketing ploy.

这只是营销策略，

So the next time you see one of these ads,

所以你下次看到这些广告，

ask yourself:

问你自己这几个问题：

What were people actually asked?

被问的人到底是谁？

What's gone unsaid?

没有告诉的你的内容是什么？

And what was the survey context?

还有调查的背景是什么？

Hopefully, with those three questions and a little bit of skepticism,

希望有了这三个问题 和一些敢于质疑的精神，

you will be able to understand when the data is legit

你就会知道何时数据是可靠的，

and when it's irrelevant.

何时数据是不相关的。

Nine out of 10 Monas agree.

十位莫娜中有九位都赞同我。

[*No such survey took place]

【*我可没调查过】