Do 9 out of 10 dentists really recommend that toothpaste? | Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi

Transcriber:

When it comes to toothpaste commercials,

譯者: 鈞奕 張 審譯者: Helen Chang

當談到牙膏廣告時，

you've probably heard claims like,

你大概會聽到像是這樣的說法：

nine out of 10 dentists recommend "Brighter, Whiter."

九成的牙醫推薦「更亮、更白」。

Or maybe it's four out of five or 80 percent.

或者可能是80%。

But either way, these companies expect you to see a wall of white coats,

但無論如何，這些公司都希望你 見到醫師白大褂排成的牆，

trust their authority and think no further.

相信權威，不再繼續追究。

Now that approach is basically BS, and you probably know it's BS,

那是胡說八道， 而且你大概也知道是胡說八道，

but the question is: How can you trust your BS radar?

但是問題在於： 如何相信自己辨識胡說八道的雷達?

[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]

[我正常嗎？莫娜·查拉比曲]

Well, when I'm faced with suspicious statistics,

嗯，當我面對可疑的統計數據時，

I tend to ask myself three questions.

我習慣會問自己三個問題。

First, what were people actually asked?

第一，人們真正問的是什麼？

Sometimes the question that is put to survey respondents

有時候向調查對象提出的問題

is wildly different than the one that ends up on posters and billboards.

和最終出現在海報和廣告牌的問題 大不相同。

For instance, in 2007, one toothpaste ad in the UK

例如，2007年英國的一則牙膏廣告

claimed that more than 80 percent of dentists recommended their products.

宣稱超過80％的牙醫 推薦他們的產品。

What that sounds like

這聽起來像是

is that a majority of dentists prefer their product over all others,

大部分的牙醫喜歡他們的產品，

that those dentists were asked if this was the best product.

而那些牙醫會被問到 推薦的牙膏是否是最好的牙膏。

But when the Advertising Standards Authority looked into it,

但是當廣告標準局調查時，

they discovered that the dentists were asked to recommend several toothpastes,

他們發現牙醫們 被要求推薦幾種牙膏，

not one single choice.

並非只有一種。

In fact, another brand was found to be almost as popular.

事實上，另一個品牌 幾乎一樣受到歡迎。

To no one's surprise, the ad was deemed misleading.

不出所料， 這些廣告被認為具有誤導性。

Now, the second question to ask is: What aren’t you telling me?

現在，要問的第二個問題是： 你隱瞞了什麼？

In the 1970s, a sugarless gum company claimed that four out five dentists

在1970年代，一間無糖口香糖公司 宣稱五分之四的牙醫

recommended their product.

推薦他們的產品。

Now, their slogan was pretty upfront

他們的標語直稱

about the fact that these dentists were only recommending the product

這些牙醫只推薦這項產品

to people who already chewed gum,

給已經嚼口香糖的人，

but they weren't so forthcoming about the fifth dentist.

但沒透露第五位牙醫的看法。

Decades later, the manufacturer made fun of it in a new ad campaign

十年後，製造商在新的廣告中 幽默地解釋此事，

where they blamed the fifth dentist's different thinking

將第五位牙醫不同的想法

on a freak accident, like a sudden squirrel bite.

歸咎於怪誕的意外， 像是有松鼠咬過。

Now, since I'm all about the deviations in the data,

由於我特別關注數據中的偏差，

I decided to look into this a little bit further.

因此決定更深入探究一下。

In fact, it's not that the fifth dentist recommended chewing sugary gum.

事實上，並不是第五個牙醫 推薦去嚼含糖的口香糖。

What they don't say is that most of them recommended

他們沒說的是那些牙醫

that their patients don't chew gum at all.

全都建議患者根本不要嚼口香糖。

The last thing to ask is: What was the survey context?

最後一個要問的是： 問卷的背景是什麼？

Because there's a really big difference

因為以下這兩句大不相同：

between saying "nine out of 10 dentists agree,"

「十個牙醫中有九個同意」

and "nine out of these 10 dentists agree."

及「這十個牙醫中有九個同意。」

Size matters and so does methodology.

調查規模及調查方法都很重要。

According to the American Dental Association,

根據美國牙醫協會，

there are about 200,000 registered dentists in the US.

美國有約二十萬名註冊的牙醫。

I’m not going to bore you with the maths here,

我並沒有要在此用數學 使你感到厭煩。

but to get a statistically significant sample of 200,000 people,

但要得到這二十萬人中， 統計上較明顯的樣本，

you need about 400.

必須要有四百人接受調查。

So if you're reading in the fine print that only 50 dentists were surveyed,

因此如果小字寫著 只有五十人參與調查，

you know that's not statistically significant.

你便知道這統計並不顯著。

It's just a marketing ploy.

這只是個行銷策略。

So the next time you see one of these ads,

因此下次你看到這種廣告，

ask yourself:

問問自己：

What were people actually asked?

這些人實際上在問什麼？

What's gone unsaid?

有什麼沒說的？

And what was the survey context?

調查的背景是什麼？

Hopefully, with those three questions and a little bit of skepticism,

希望透過這三個問題和一些質疑，

you will be able to understand when the data is legit

你可以了解何時數據會是正確的，

and when it's irrelevant.

及何時會是無關緊要的。

Nine out of 10 Monas agree.

十分之九的聽眾都同意。

[*No such survey took place]

[Monas 沒進行此類調查]