Do 9 out of 10 dentists really recommend that toothpaste? | Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi

98,091 views

2021-10-26 ใƒป TED


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Do 9 out of 10 dentists really recommend that toothpaste? | Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi

98,091 views ใƒป 2021-10-26

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

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Transcriber:
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When it comes to toothpaste commercials,
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ืชืจื’ื•ื: Miriam Cohen ืขืจื™ื›ื”: Ido Dekkers
ื›ืฉืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ืคืจืกื•ืžื•ืช ืœืžืฉื—ื•ืช ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื,
00:02
you've probably heard claims like,
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ื›ื ืจืื” ืฉืฉืžืขืชื ื˜ืขื ื•ืช ื›ืžื•,
00:03
nine out of 10 dentists recommend "Brighter, Whiter."
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ืชืฉืขื” ืžืชื•ืš ืขืฉืจื” ืจื•ืคืื™ ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ืžืžืœื™ืฆื™ื โ€œื‘ื”ื™ืจ ื•ืœื‘ืŸ ื™ื•ืชืจโ€
00:06
Or maybe it's four out of five or 80 percent.
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ืื• ืื•ืœื™ ื–ื” ืืจื‘ืขื” ืžืชื•ืš ื—ืžื™ืฉื” ืื• 80 ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื
00:08
But either way, these companies expect you to see a wall of white coats,
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ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงืจื”, ื”ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ืœืœื• ืžืฆืคื•ืช ืฉืืชื ืชืจืื• ืงื™ืจ ืฉืœ ืฉื›ื‘ื•ืช ืœื‘ื ื•ืช,
00:12
trust their authority and think no further.
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ืฉืชื‘ื˜ื—ื• ื‘ืกืžื›ื•ืช ืฉืœื”ื, ื•ืฉืœื ืชื—ืฉื‘ื• ืžืขื‘ืจ ืœื›ืš.
00:15
Now that approach is basically BS, and you probably know it's BS,
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื”ื’ื™ืฉื” ื”ื–ื• ื”ื™ื ืฉื˜ื•ืช ื’ืžื•ืจื”, ื•ืืชื ื›ื ืจืื” ืžื•ื“ืขื™ื ืœื›ืš,
00:19
but the question is: How can you trust your BS radar?
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืฉืืœื” ื‘ืขืฆื ื”ื™ื: ืื™ืš ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื‘ื˜ื•ื— ื‘ืจื“ืืจ ืฉืœื›ื?
00:22
[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]
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[ื”ืื ืื ื™ ื ื•ืจืžืœื™? ืขื ืžื•ื ื” ื—ืœื‘ื™]
00:24
Well, when I'm faced with suspicious statistics,
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ื›ืฉืื ื™ ื ื™ืฆื‘ืช ื‘ืคื ื™ ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงื” ื—ืฉื•ื“ื”,
00:27
I tend to ask myself three questions.
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ืื ื™ ื ื•ื˜ื” ืœืฉืื•ืœ ืืช ืขืฆืžื™ ืฉืœื•ืฉ ืฉืืœื•ืช.
00:29
First, what were people actually asked?
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ืจืืฉื™ืช, ืžื” ื‘ืืžืช ืฉืืœื• ืืช ื”ืื ืฉื™ื?
00:32
Sometimes the question that is put to survey respondents
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ืœืคืขืžื™ื ื”ืฉืืœื” ืฉื”ื ืกืงืจื™ื ืžืงื‘ืœื™ื
00:35
is wildly different than the one that ends up on posters and billboards.
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ืฉื•ื ื” ืœื—ืœื•ื˜ื™ืŸ ืžื”ืฉืืœื” ืฉืœื‘ืกื•ืฃ ืžื’ื™ืขื” ืœืคื•ืกื˜ืจื™ื ื•ืœืจืืฉื™ ื—ื•ืฆื•ืช.
00:38
For instance, in 2007, one toothpaste ad in the UK
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ืœืžืฉืœ, ื‘ืฉื ืช 2007, ืคืจืกื•ืžืช ืœืžืฉื—ืช ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ื‘ื‘ืจื™ื˜ื ื™ื”
00:42
claimed that more than 80 percent of dentists recommended their products.
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ื˜ืขื ื” ืฉื™ื•ืชืจ ืž 80 ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื ืžืจื•ืคืื™ ื”ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ื”ืžืœื™ืฆื• ืขืœ ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ืฉืœื”ื.
00:46
What that sounds like
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ื–ื” ื ืฉืžืข
00:47
is that a majority of dentists prefer their product over all others,
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ืฉืจื•ื‘ ืจื•ืคืื™ ื”ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ืžืขื“ื™ืคื™ื ืืช ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ืฉืœื”ื ืขืœ ืคื ื™ ื›ืœ ื”ืื—ืจื™ื,
00:51
that those dentists were asked if this was the best product.
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ืฉืื•ืชื ืจื•ืคืื™ ื”ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ื ืฉืืœื• ืื ื–ื” ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ.
00:55
But when the Advertising Standards Authority looked into it,
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ืืš ื›ืฉื”ืจืฉื•ืช ืœืชืงื ื™ ืคืจืกื•ืžื•ืช ื‘ื“ืงื” ืืช ื”ื ื•ืฉื,
00:57
they discovered that the dentists were asked to recommend several toothpastes,
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ื”ื™ื ื’ื™ืœืชื” ืฉื”ื ื”ืชื‘ืงืฉื• ืœื”ืžืœื™ืฅ ืขืœ ื›ืžื” ืžืฉื—ื•ืช,
ื•ืœื ืขืœ ืžืฉื—ืช ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ืžืกื•ื™ืžืช.
01:01
not one single choice.
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01:03
In fact, another brand was found to be almost as popular.
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืžื•ืชื’ ืื—ืจ ื”ืชื’ืœื” ื›ืคื•ืคื•ืœืจื™ ื›ืžืขื˜ ื‘ืื•ืชื” ืžื™ื“ื”.
01:07
To no one's surprise, the ad was deemed misleading.
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ืืฃ ืื—ื“ ืœื ื”ื•ืคืชืข, ื›ืฉื”ืคืจืกื•ืžืช ื ื—ืฉื‘ื” ื›ืžื˜ืขื”.
01:09
Now, the second question to ask is: What arenโ€™t you telling me?
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ืฉื ื™ื” ืฉืขืœื™ื›ื ืœืฉืื•ืœ ื”ื™ื: ืžื” ืืชื ืœื ืžืกืคืจื™ื ืœื™?
01:13
In the 1970s, a sugarless gum company claimed that four out five dentists
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ื‘ืฉื ื•ืช ื”ืฉื‘ืขื™ื, ื—ื‘ืจื” ืœื’ื•ืžื™ ืœืขื™ืกื” ืœืœื ืกื•ื›ืจ ื˜ืขื ื” ืฉืืจื‘ืขื” ืžืชื•ืš ื—ืžื™ืฉื” ืจื•ืคืื™ ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื
01:17
recommended their product.
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ื”ืžืœื™ืฆื• ืขืœ ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ืฉืœื”.
01:18
Now, their slogan was pretty upfront
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื”ืคืจืกื•ืžืช ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื“ื™ ื›ื ื”
01:20
about the fact that these dentists were only recommending the product
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉืื•ืชื ืจื•ืคืื™ ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ื”ืžืœื™ืฆื• ืขืœ ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ
01:23
to people who already chewed gum,
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ืœืื ืฉื™ื ืฉื›ื‘ืจ ืœืขืกื• ื’ื•ืžื™ ืœืขื™ืกื”
01:25
but they weren't so forthcoming about the fifth dentist.
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ืืš ื”ื ืœื ื”ื™ื• ื›ืœ-ื›ืš ื›ื ื™ื ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืจื•ืคื ื”ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ื”ื—ืžื™ืฉื™.
01:28
Decades later, the manufacturer made fun of it in a new ad campaign
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ืขืฉืจื•ืช ืฉื ื™ื ืœืื—ืจ ืžื›ืŸ, ื”ื™ืฆืจืŸ ืขืฉื” ืฆื—ื•ืง ืžืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ื–ื• ื‘ืคืจืกื•ืžืช ื—ื“ืฉื”
01:31
where they blamed the fifth dentist's different thinking
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ืฉื‘ื” ื”ืืฉื™ืžื• ืืช ืจื•ืคื ื”ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ื”ื—ืžื™ืฉื™ ื‘ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืฉื•ื ื”
01:34
on a freak accident, like a sudden squirrel bite.
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืชืื•ื ื” ืžืฉื•ื ื” ื›ืžื• ื ืฉื™ื›ืช ืกื ืื™ ืคืชืื•ืžื™ืช.
01:37
Now, since I'm all about the deviations in the data,
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ืžื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉืื ื™ ื‘ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ืกื˜ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืžื™ื“ืข,
01:39
I decided to look into this a little bit further.
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ื”ื—ืœื˜ืชื™ ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื”ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืœืขื•ืžืง.
01:42
In fact, it's not that the fifth dentist recommended chewing sugary gum.
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื–ื” ืœื ืฉืจื•ืคื ื”ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ื”ื—ืžื™ืฉื™ ื”ืžืœื™ืฅ ืœืœืขื•ืก ื’ื•ืžื™ ืœืขื™ืกื” ืขื ืกื•ื›ืจ.
01:45
What they don't say is that most of them recommended
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ืžื” ืฉื”ื ืœื ืื•ืžืจื™ื ื‘ืคืจืกื•ืžืช, ื–ื” ืฉืจื•ื‘ ืจื•ืคืื™ ื”ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ื”ืžืœื™ืฆื•
01:48
that their patients don't chew gum at all.
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ืฉื”ืžื˜ื•ืคืœื™ื ืฉืœื”ื ืœื ื™ืœืขืกื• ื’ื•ืžื™ ืœืขื™ืกื” ื‘ื›ืœืœ.
01:50
The last thing to ask is: What was the survey context?
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ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื” ืฉื™ืฉ ืœืฉืื•ืœ: ืžื” ื”ื™ื” ื”ืงืฉืจ ื”ืกืงืจ?
01:53
Because there's a really big difference
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ืžืื—ืจ ืฉื™ืฉ ื”ื‘ื“ืœ ื’ื“ื•ืœ
01:55
between saying "nine out of 10 dentists agree,"
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ืœื•ืžืจ โ€œืชืฉืขื” ืžืชื•ืš 10 ืจื•ืคืื™ ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ืžืกื›ื™ืžื™ื,โ€
01:57
and "nine out of these 10 dentists agree."
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ืœื‘ื™ืŸ โ€œืชืฉืขื” ืžืชื•ืš 10 ื”ืจื•ืคืื™ื ื”ืœืœื• ืžืกื›ื™ืžื™ื.โ€
02:00
Size matters and so does methodology.
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ื”ื’ื•ื“ืœ ืงื•ื‘ืข ื•ื›ืš ื’ื ื”ืžืชื•ื“ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
02:03
According to the American Dental Association,
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ืœืคื™ ืื™ื’ื•ื“ ืจื•ืคืื™ ื”ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ื”ืืžืจื™ืงืื™,
02:05
there are about 200,000 registered dentists in the US.
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ื™ืฉ ื‘ืขืจืš 200,000 ืจื•ืคืื™ ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื ืจืฉื•ืžื™ื ื‘ืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช.
02:08
Iโ€™m not going to bore you with the maths here,
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืžืชื›ื•ื•ื ืช ืœืฉืขืžื ืืชื›ื ืขื ื”ื—ื™ืฉื•ื‘ ื›ืืŸ,
02:10
but to get a statistically significant sample of 200,000 people,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ื“ื™ ืœืงื‘ืœ ื“ื•ื’ืžื™ืช ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ืช ืž 200,000 ืื ืฉื™ื,
02:13
you need about 400.
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ืชืฆื˜ืจื›ื• ื‘ืขืจืš 400.
02:15
So if you're reading in the fine print that only 50 dentists were surveyed,
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ื›ืš ืฉืื ืชืงืจืื• ืืช ื”ืื•ืชื™ื•ืช ื”ืงื˜ื ื•ืช ืฉืกืงืจื• ืจืง 50 ืจื•ืคืื™ ืฉื™ื ื™ื™ื,
02:18
you know that's not statistically significant.
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ืชื“ืขื• ืฉื–ื” ืœื ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ื” ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืช.
02:21
It's just a marketing ploy.
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ื–ื” ืจืง ืชื›ืกื™ืก ืฉื™ื•ื•ืงื™.
02:22
So the next time you see one of these ads,
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ื›ืš ืฉืคืขื ื”ื‘ืื” ืฉืชืจืื• ืคืจืกื•ืžืช ื›ื–ื•,
02:24
ask yourself:
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ืชืฉืืœื• ืืช ืขืฆืžื›ื:
02:25
What were people actually asked?
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ืžื” ืœืžืขืฉื” ืฉืืœื• ืืช ื”ืื ืฉื™ื?
02:27
What's gone unsaid?
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ืžื” ืœื ื ืืžืจ?
02:28
And what was the survey context?
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ื•ืžื” ื”ื™ื” ื”ืงืฉืจ ื”ืกืงืจ?
02:30
Hopefully, with those three questions and a little bit of skepticism,
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ื‘ืชืงื•ื•ื” ืฉืขื ืฉืœื•ืฉ ื”ืฉืืœื•ืช ื”ืืœื• ื•ืขื ืžืขื˜ ืกืคืงื ื•ืช
02:34
you will be able to understand when the data is legit
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ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืžืชื™ ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืœื’ื™ื˜ื™ืžื™ื™ื
02:37
and when it's irrelevant.
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ื•ืžืชื™ ื”ื ืœื ืจืœื•ื•ื ื˜ื™ื.
02:38
Nine out of 10 Monas agree.
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ืชืฉืขื” ืžืชื•ืš 10 ืžื•ื ื•ืช ืžืกื›ื™ืžื•ืช.
02:40
[*No such survey took place]
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[*ืกืงืจ ื›ื–ื” ืœื ื ืขืฉื”]
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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