请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Odile Bai
校对人员: Bighead Ge
00:12
I'm an exhausted dad.
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我是一个精疲力尽的老父亲。
00:15
Currently owned and dominated
by two mini dictators,
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目前为两个小独裁者所有,受其支配,
00:19
who rule my life with an iron fist
while wearing their Huggies diapers.
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他们对我实行铁腕统治,
尽管还穿着尿不湿。
00:23
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
00:24
Now probably because I've been
drowning in small people lately,
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或许是因为
最近一直和小孩子待在一起,
00:28
I've been paying close attention
to a particular headline.
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我对于一个话题格外关注。
00:31
It seems around the world,
in developed countries,
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看起来在全球所有发达国家,
00:33
people are having fewer babies.
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人们都在减少生育。
00:36
From North America to Europe
to China to Japan,
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从北美到欧洲,从中国到日本,
00:39
there's actually been
a consistent decline in birth rates.
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出生率确实呈现连续下降的趋势。
00:43
In fact, over the past 50 years,
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事实上,在过去的50年里,
00:45
the global fertility rate has halved.
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全球的生育率下降了一半。
00:50
What the heck is going on?
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到底发生了什么?
00:52
Now, my friends who don't want kids,
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我身边不想生孩子的朋友
00:54
all point to climate change
as a reason for never having babies.
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都把气候变化
说成是不要孩子的原因。
00:57
And many of you are sitting there
right now, saying,
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在座的很多人现在肯定想说:
01:00
"Waj, there's also overpopulation,
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“嘿,人口过剩问题
01:02
there's also high birth rates,
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以及在很多非洲和中东国家
01:05
which still exist in many African
and Middle Eastern countries,
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仍然有高生育率,
01:08
there's also orphan kids
who still need parents,
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而且还有孤儿需要养父母,
01:10
there's also a lack of resources
to go around for everyone,
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总体资源仍然处于不足,
01:13
and oh, by the way,
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啊顺便说一句,
01:14
we have a ginormous carbon footprint
that is destroying this planet.
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我们正面临严重的碳排放问题,
它正在毁灭地球。”
01:19
I hear you, I hear you.
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我听到了,都听到了。
01:21
And yet, despite all this chaos,
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但是尽管有这些声音,
01:25
I still think we should have babies.
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我还是认为我们应该生孩子。
01:28
I believe we can and should
fight for the earth and humanity,
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我相信我们可以,且应当,
为地球、为人类,
01:32
side by side.
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并肩作战。
01:34
Now, if I could take it
personal for a second,
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此刻,如果允许我暂时以己度人,
01:36
I get it, I get why some of you
might be skeptical about having babies.
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我能理解为什么有些人
对于要孩子持怀疑态度。
01:40
Here's a photo of my wife and me
before we had kids.
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这里有张照片,
是我和我太太有孩子之前拍的。
01:44
Young, happy, fresh.
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年轻,快乐,有活力。
01:48
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:49
Here's a photo of me after having kids.
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这一张照片是有孩子后的我
01:52
A broken, defeated husk of a man.
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一名憔悴落魄的老父亲。
01:55
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:56
Here's the photo of the car
I thought I'd be driving as an adult.
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这是我以为,
作为一名成年人我会开的车,
02:01
A Porsche.
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一辆保时捷。
02:03
Here's what I actually drive.
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这是我现实里的车,
02:07
A Honda Odyssey minivan.
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本田奥德赛家用车。
02:11
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:12
(Applause)
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(掌声)
02:13
For the minivan.
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说到家用车,
02:15
Where there was once hope,
now there is convenient space,
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现在我只在意舒适的空间,
02:18
and good mileage, good mileage.
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还有低油耗,还省油哦。
02:21
Now, I just want to stress
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在这里我想要强调,
02:24
that I'm completely aware
of the very dire threats
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我完全了解全球变暖和气候变化
02:29
of global warming and climate change.
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带来的巨大而可怕的风险。
02:31
I just want to acknowledge
that choosing to have babies
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我只是想说明选择生孩子
02:34
is a deeply, profoundly personal choice.
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是一个非常认真而深刻的个人选择。
02:37
And that many who want to are unable.
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但很多人的选择其实身不由己。
02:40
But just for today, let's examine
the flip side of the coin.
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不过今天在这里,
我们来看看问题的另一面:
02:43
At how not having enough new people
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新生人口不足将如何成为
02:46
is going to be a major problem
moving forward.
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影响进步的主要问题。
02:49
According to the World
Health Organization,
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根据世界卫生组织的数据,
02:51
we need to average about
2.1 children per woman today
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基于当前人口,
每位女性平均需要生育2.1个子女
02:54
just so we have enough people
to replace the previous generation.
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才能保证有足够的人口完成代际更替。
02:58
A lot of you thought overpopulation
was going to be a problem in 100 years --
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很多人认为在100年内
人口过剩将成为问题,
03:01
yeah, it might be underpopulation.
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但事实上,问题可能是人口稀缺。
03:03
So a question:
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那么问题来了:
03:04
what happens if that number
dips below 2.1?
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如果女性人均生育数
低于2.1会怎样?
03:08
There's going to be a domino effect.
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这会引发一场多米诺效应。
03:10
As all of us get older, and live longer,
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当所有人年龄逐步增加,
平均寿命延长,
03:13
there's going to be a shrinking
younger population,
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青年人口数量将不断减少,
03:16
which is going to lead
to rising labor shortages
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这会导致劳动力短缺,
03:18
in the world's biggest economies.
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尤其是在世界几大经济体国家。
03:19
I'm talking about United States,
China, Japan, Germany.
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比如说美国、中国、日本、德国,
03:22
Fewer younger working people
means less tax revenue.
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青年工作人口减少意味着税收减少,
03:25
Less tax revenue
means less money and resources
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税收减少意味着更少的钱和资源
03:28
to go to safety net programs
that all of us are going to depend upon.
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来用于我们都将赖以生存的
社会保障工程,
03:31
I'm talking about pensions
and health care.
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也就是养老金和医疗保险。
03:34
It seems every generation
is indeed connected.
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看起来每一代人其实都息息相关,
03:38
But how the heck did we get here
in the first place?
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但我们一开始是怎么会
走到这条路上的呢?
03:41
Well, in some cases, it was intentional.
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在某些情况下,这是人为造成的。
03:44
Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times.
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让我们跟着这辆德罗宁车
回到更简单的时代,
03:48
Let's stop in China.
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停下看看中国的情况,
03:50
Somewhere between the death of disco
and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980.
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在迪斯科衰败和帝国反击战之间的
1980年代。
03:55
In 1980, China decided to implement
the one-child policy,
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1980年代,
中国决定实施独生子女政策,
04:00
largely limiting most parents
to having just one kid
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限制了大多数夫妻只能生育一个孩子
04:02
to combat overpopulation.
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以抑制人口过剩问题。
04:04
Check out some good old-fashioned
Chinese propaganda, lovely.
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来看看当时中国的一些宣传画报,
很漂亮。
04:07
Now, fast-forward to 2019.
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现在,我们快进到2019年。
04:10
Even after ending
its one-child policy in 2015,
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尽管在2015年
中国停止了计划生育,
04:13
China's birth rates have largely declined.
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生育率仍然有显著下降。
04:16
In fact, the falling population in China
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事实上,中国的人口下降
04:18
is removing one of its biggest
drivers of growth -- people.
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正在削弱其发展的最大推动力——
人口。
04:22
If trends continue,
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如果这个趋势继续下去,
04:24
China's population
is actually going to peak in 2029,
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中国的人口将在2029年达到顶峰,
04:27
before entering "unstoppable decline."
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然后就开始进入“无法阻止的下降”。
04:31
China's government
is so freaked out right now
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中国政府现在对此非常担忧,
04:34
that it's actually doing new propaganda --
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并制作了新的宣传政策——
04:36
it's begging couples
to have children for the country.
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鼓励夫妻们为了国家而生孩子。
04:40
Let's take the DeLorean
and hop over to Japan,
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再来看看日本的情况,
04:42
home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.
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那是我爱的本田奥德赛家用车的故乡。
04:45
(Laughter)
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(大笑)
04:47
Japan is now producing more
adult diapers than infant ones.
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日本目前的成人纸尿裤产量
已经高于婴儿纸尿裤,
04:55
The number of kids in Japan
has fallen for the 37th straight year.
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日本的儿童数量
已经连续37年呈现下降趋势。
05:00
And unlike other countries,
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不同于其他国家,
05:01
it has not been able to replace
its population numbers
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日本还无法通过外来移民工作者
05:04
through immigrant workers.
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实现人口数量更替。
05:06
There will be labor shortages
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日本将面临劳动力短缺,
05:07
and not enough money to fund
the safety-net programs.
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将没有足够的钱维持社会保障工程。
05:10
Now, Japan has introduced two solutions.
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现在日本开始引入两种解决方案。
05:12
First, a financial incentive.
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第一是经济激励。
05:15
Some local governments in Japan
have offered couples money to have babies,
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日本一些地方政府
向生育的夫妻提供经济补贴,
05:20
with the money increasing
with each additional child being born.
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生的越多补贴越多。
05:23
This actually worked for one year in 2014
in this town called Ama.
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这种方法2014年在Ama镇
产生了效果,
05:27
It actually raised the birth rate
from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8.
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当年该地的女性人均生育数
从1.66上升到了1.8,
05:32
But it did not gain traction across Japan.
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但纵观日本全国
这一方法并未取得显著效果。
05:35
In 2018, a leader of Japan's
ruling party tried a new tack.
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2018年,日本执政党的一位领导人
尝试了新方法,
05:39
He told young people,
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他告诉年轻人,
05:41
"You're selfish for not having babies."
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“你们不生孩子是非常自私的行为。"
05:44
Shockingly, shaming was not
a rousing aphrodisiac.
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令人震惊的是,
羞辱并没有产生激励作用。
05:49
Surprise, I know, surprise.
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太震惊了,我知道,
05:51
Who would have thought?
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谁能想到会这样呢?
05:52
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:54
Let's take the DeLorean to Europe,
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现在再把目光移到欧洲,
05:56
the continent of delicious cheeses
I love to eat but cannot pronounce.
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芝士的故乡,我喜欢吃,
就是不会读。
06:01
The UK and much of Western Europe
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英国和西欧的一些国家
06:03
has a birth rate of about
1.7 kids per woman,
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女性人均生育数大约在1.7左右,
06:06
which at least is better than Hungary,
where it hovers around 1.45.
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这至少比匈牙利的1.45要好一些。
06:11
Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán
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现在匈牙利首相维克托·欧尔班
06:13
has proposed a new solution
to try to incentivize people to have kids.
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正推行一种新政以激励人们生孩子。
06:17
He said families where the women
have four or more kids
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他宣布育有四名
或更多孩子的女性所在家庭
06:20
will no longer pay income tax.
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可以永久不用缴纳所得税。
06:23
Pretty good, right, pretty good.
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很棒对不对?
06:25
At least it's better
than Russia's 2007 proposal,
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再怎么说也比俄罗斯2007年的提案
好多了,
06:28
which once offered women
in a particular region
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当时在俄罗斯某个特定区域,
06:31
the opportunity of winning a fridge
if they had more kids.
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生育多的女性会被奖励一台冰箱。
06:34
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
06:36
Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work.
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好吧,这个政策也没有什么效果。
06:39
But hold on, pump the brakes.
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但别着急,我们言归正传,
06:41
Orbán is primarily proposing this
because he wants to limit
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欧尔班一开始提出这个提案的目的
06:45
the population of Muslims
and people of color.
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是想限制穆斯林和
有色人种的人口数量。
06:49
He says he doesn't think Hungary's
traditions and culture and color
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他表示他不认为匈牙利的传统、
文化和肤色
06:54
has to be "mixed with those of others."
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一定要“和其他民族进行融合”。
06:58
Subtle.
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这很微妙。
06:59
Unfortunately for Orbán,
and much of the EU,
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很不幸,
无论是匈牙利还是多数欧盟国家,
07:04
the birth rates are not
high enough right now
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就目前的生育率而言,
07:06
to be replenished without immigration.
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都无法在没有移民人口的情况下
实现代际更替。
07:09
Among EU countries,
there is a demographic decline.
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纵观欧盟各国,
都呈现人口下降趋势。
07:13
So it seems, in Europe, karma
is going to be brown and Muslim.
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所以在欧洲,
棕色皮肤和穆斯林将是大势所趋。
07:18
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(笑声)(鼓掌)
07:22
Just saying.
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我只是说说而已。
07:24
The question remains:
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那么还是这个问题:
07:26
Why aren't people having enough kids?
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为什么儿童人口数不足?
07:29
Why is the birth rate declining
in these countries?
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为什么这些国家的生育率在降低?
07:32
In some cases,
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在有些国家,
07:33
it's because women
are more literate, more educated.
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这是由于女性的受教育程度
较以前更高了。
07:37
They have more economic
opportunities -- applaud.
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她们在经济上有了更多的机会——
为她们喝彩。
07:40
All good things, all good things, yes.
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没错,这都是好的现象。
07:42
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
07:44
In India, this has been fantastic,
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印度的情况则非常神奇,
07:46
it has actually reduced the birth rate
but kept it above that magic 2.1 number.
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生育率确实下降了,
但仍然保持在神奇的2.1之上。
07:50
Women also have
more access to birth control,
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女性对计划生育有了更多的控制,
07:53
more control over
their reproductive lives,
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对育龄也有了更多的掌控。
07:55
all good things.
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这都是很棒的变化。
07:58
But in the United States, in particular,
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但是在另一些区域,尤其是美国,
08:01
a lot of young people
are opting out of having kids,
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很多年轻人拒绝生育
08:03
largely cite the same reason:
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给出的都是同一个原因:
08:06
financial concerns.
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经济上的考量。
08:08
Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland,
the United States of America,
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我们一起来到我的故乡,美国,
08:12
where the birth rate
hit its historic low in 2017.
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2017年美国生育率达到历史新低。
08:18
The United States is the most expensive
country in the world
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在全世界范围内,
美国是生育花费最高的一个国家。
08:23
to give birth.
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08:25
If you do not have insurance,
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如果你没有保险,
08:26
it will cost you 32,000 dollars
to have a baby,
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生一个孩子大概要花3.2万美元
(约22万人民币),
08:30
if everything goes perfectly.
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这还是在一切顺利的理想情况下。
08:33
That's like buying a brand new
Honda Odyssey minivan, OK?
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这差不多能买一辆新的本田
奥德赛了好嘛!
08:36
So, congratulations, you just had a baby,
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那么,恭喜你,
假如你刚刚生了一个孩子,
08:38
but the baby's economic productivity
is zero, and guess what?
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但这个孩子的经济生产力为0,
而且你知道吗?
08:41
The United States is the only
industrialized country in the world
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美国是世界上唯一一个
08:44
that does not require employers
to offer paid parental leave.
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不强制执行带薪产假的工业国家。
08:48
"Mom, you just had a baby,
congratulations, that's lovely.
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“年轻的母亲,恭喜你刚生了个孩子,
真可爱,
08:52
Get back to work
or you're fired, young mom!"
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快回去工作,否则你就要被辞退了!“
08:55
My wife and I, both working parents,
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我和我太太都是全职工作者,
08:58
pay about 3,500 dollars a month --
a month -- in Virginia for childcare.
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在弗吉尼亚州每月找人看孩子
大约要花3500美元。
09:03
If you do the math,
that's 40,000 dollars a year.
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算算看,一年就是4万美元
(约27.5万人民币)。
09:06
That's like buying a brand new,
souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK.
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这简直可以买一辆全新
高配的本田奥德赛了啊!
09:10
I have one, I do not need 10.
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我有一辆了,不需要再买十辆了。
09:15
So here's my bold suggestion.
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所以这是我大胆的建议。
09:17
Let's make it easier
for people to have babies.
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让生养孩子更容易一些吧。
09:22
It seems in order to invest in our future,
we actually have to invest in the present
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看起来为了将来,
我们现在就要开始努力,
09:26
and help those people
who want to become parents.
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帮助那些希望为人父母的夫妻。
09:29
Give them affordable health care,
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为他们提供能承受的医疗保险,
09:31
give them affordable childcare,
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为他们提供合适的儿童保育,
09:33
give them paid parental leave.
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为他们提供带薪产假。
09:36
Among the EU states in 2017,
France reported the highest birth rates.
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2017年,
法国生育率在欧盟居于首位。
09:40
Why?
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为什么会这样?
09:41
Largely due to its pronatal policies
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很大程度上是因为其生育政策
09:43
that actually kept women in the workforce.
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对职业女性的保护。
09:46
I'm talking about subsidized daycare
and paid maternal leave.
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包括有补贴的儿童托管及带薪育儿假。
09:50
China and Japan, thank God,
are finally wisening up
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感谢上帝,中国和日本终于也醒悟了,
09:53
and proposing such policies.
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开始推行类似的政策。
09:55
This is great.
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这真是太棒了。
09:56
That being said, I know
some of you have listened to me
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3045
我知道你们很多人听我说了这么多,
09:59
and you still think the best investment
we can make in the future
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还是觉得我们能对未来进行的最好投资
10:02
is not having babies.
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就是不生孩子。
10:05
I respect that.
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我尊重你们的选择。
10:06
I get where you're coming from.
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我知道你们为什么会这么想。
10:07
And I know many of you in this audience
want to have babies
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我也知道在座的很多人想要生孩子,
10:12
but you are terrified about the future.
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但你们对未来充满恐惧。
10:15
And as a parent, I feel you.
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作为一个父亲,我感同身受。
10:18
I'm scared about the future.
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我对未来感到害怕。
10:20
I wrote that last line a month ago.
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1973
一个月前我写下了这句话。
10:23
But it really hit home
three days ago for me,
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但是三天前的一件事才是直击要害,
10:25
while I was at TED.
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当时我正在TED。
10:29
Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying.
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三天前,我的妻子哭着给我打电话,
10:32
I pick it up in my hotel room.
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1667
我在酒店房间里接到电话,
10:34
And she said, "I'm calling
from the hospital."
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2388
她说,“我正在医院打电话。”
10:36
We had to take my baby daughter Nusayba,
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2019
我们的小女儿Nusayba,
10:38
who was named after a warrior princess,
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1944
得名于一位勇敢的公主,
10:40
to the hospital, because she found
a bump on the stomach.
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2921
因为胃里有个肿块而被送到医院。
10:43
We got back the results,
and there were bumps all around her liver.
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3238
检查结果显示
她的肝脏中有很多肿块。
10:47
Today, this morning, we found out
that she has stage IV liver cancer.
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今天早上,
我们得知她已经是肝癌四期。
10:51
(Audience gasps)
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(观众惊呼)
11:00
It has been a challenging week.
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2067
这一周对我来说太挑战了。
11:03
It has been a challenging week.
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1595
太挑战了。
11:04
And if I may, I just want to take a moment
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如果可以,我想占用一点时间,
11:07
to acknowledge the TED staff,
everyone, top-down,
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3151
感谢TED的所有工作人员,
上上下下每个人,
11:10
everyone in the back, in the green room,
some of the speakers, word has spread.
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3801
幕后的、绿幕室的、以及其他演讲者。
11:14
On behalf of my family, my wife,
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1905
我谨代表我的家庭、我的太太,
11:16
and my parents -- my Pakistani parents
said I had to say this --
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3015
以及父母—我来自巴基斯坦的父母
让我一定要说:
11:19
thank you for just being decent
and kind this week.
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2699
谢谢你们在这一周对我的友好和善意,
11:22
So thank you.
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1286
真的非常感谢。
11:23
(Applause)
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(掌声)
11:31
These are my beloveds,
my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies.
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4242
这是我的挚爱,我的宝贝
Ibrahim和Nusayba。
11:36
I talked to my wife,
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1802
我和我太太聊过,
11:37
and despite the terrible news
and the fight ahead,
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2365
尽管有这样可怕的消息和
接下来的一场苦战,
11:40
we both concluded that we regret nothing.
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4275
我们都觉得毫不后悔。
11:45
Deciding to have babies
was the best decision we ever made.
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3941
觉得要孩子是我们一生中
做过最好的决定。
11:50
Our babies have brought us so much joy
and they've brought the world so much joy,
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4008
我们的孩子带给我们和
这个世界如此多的快乐,
11:54
and having kids is a risk,
but life is a risk.
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3133
生孩子确实是一场冒险,
但人生就是一场冒险。
11:58
And yes, I hope you've been
paying attention,
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是的,我希望你们都已经注意到,
12:00
we need to invest in babies
in developed countries
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在发达国家我们需要有更高的生育率
12:02
if we want to help save
our economy and pensions.
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以促进或是拯救经济和社会保障体系。
12:05
But that's not the reason you have babies.
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2008
但这不是你们生育的原因。
12:07
That's not the main reason.
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1778
至少不是主要的原因。
12:09
Babies have always represented
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孩子总是能代表
12:10
humanity's best, boldest,
most beautiful infinite possibilities.
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人性中最美好、最迷人的无限可能性。
12:16
And if we in developed countries,
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如果身处发达国家的我们,
12:18
as a whole, opt out,
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2603
从整体上选择拒绝,
12:20
and don't invest in present
and future generations,
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对这一代和下一代不抱有希望,
12:23
then what the hell's the point?
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1904
那人生还有什么意义?
12:25
What's the point of being
on this absurd journey together?
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3934
这荒谬的人生还有什么意义?
12:29
And so, for those who can
and who choose to,
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4318
那么对于那些有能力的人,
12:34
for those who can
and who choose to have kids,
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那么对于那些有能力并选择生育的人,
12:38
may you pass on
this beautiful thing called life,
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愿你们传承这名为生命的美好之物,
12:42
with kindness, generosity,
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心怀善良、宽容、
12:46
decency and love.
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体面、与爱。
12:50
Thank you.
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谢谢。
12:51
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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