The case for having kids | Wajahat Ali

133,362 views ・ 2019-05-31

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:12
I'm an exhausted dad.
0
12659
1400
00:15
Currently owned and dominated by two mini dictators,
1
15310
4055
00:19
who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers.
2
19389
4182
00:23
(Laughter)
3
23595
1000
00:24
Now probably because I've been drowning in small people lately,
4
24976
3015
00:28
I've been paying close attention to a particular headline.
5
28015
2961
00:31
It seems around the world, in developed countries,
6
31428
2514
00:33
people are having fewer babies.
7
33966
2849
00:36
From North America to Europe to China to Japan,
8
36839
2433
00:39
there's actually been a consistent decline in birth rates.
9
39296
3784
00:43
In fact, over the past 50 years,
10
43104
2158
00:45
the global fertility rate has halved.
11
45286
3357
00:50
What the heck is going on?
12
50286
1974
00:52
Now, my friends who don't want kids,
13
52284
1806
00:54
all point to climate change as a reason for never having babies.
14
54114
3266
00:57
And many of you are sitting there right now, saying,
15
57688
2485
01:00
"Waj, there's also overpopulation,
16
60197
2267
01:02
there's also high birth rates,
17
62982
2031
01:05
which still exist in many African and Middle Eastern countries,
18
65037
2977
01:08
there's also orphan kids who still need parents,
19
68038
2634
01:10
there's also a lack of resources to go around for everyone,
20
70696
2818
01:13
and oh, by the way,
21
73538
1385
01:14
we have a ginormous carbon footprint that is destroying this planet.
22
74947
4011
01:19
I hear you, I hear you.
23
79538
1533
01:21
And yet, despite all this chaos,
24
81474
3788
01:25
I still think we should have babies.
25
85286
2400
01:28
I believe we can and should fight for the earth and humanity,
26
88001
4277
01:32
side by side.
27
92302
1277
01:34
Now, if I could take it personal for a second,
28
94299
2151
01:36
I get it, I get why some of you might be skeptical about having babies.
29
96474
3400
01:40
Here's a photo of my wife and me before we had kids.
30
100228
2518
01:44
Young, happy, fresh.
31
104287
3721
01:48
(Laughter)
32
108032
1048
01:49
Here's a photo of me after having kids.
33
109104
2334
01:52
A broken, defeated husk of a man.
34
112728
3087
01:55
(Laughter)
35
115839
1071
01:56
Here's the photo of the car I thought I'd be driving as an adult.
36
116934
3468
02:01
A Porsche.
37
121846
1150
02:03
Here's what I actually drive.
38
123989
1933
02:07
A Honda Odyssey minivan.
39
127330
3683
02:11
(Laughter)
40
131037
1319
02:12
(Applause)
41
132380
1062
02:13
For the minivan.
42
133466
1177
02:15
Where there was once hope, now there is convenient space,
43
135220
3540
02:18
and good mileage, good mileage.
44
138784
2066
02:21
Now, I just want to stress
45
141434
3016
02:24
that I'm completely aware of the very dire threats
46
144474
4651
02:29
of global warming and climate change.
47
149149
1937
02:31
I just want to acknowledge that choosing to have babies
48
151110
3118
02:34
is a deeply, profoundly personal choice.
49
154252
3489
02:37
And that many who want to are unable.
50
157765
1957
02:40
But just for today, let's examine the flip side of the coin.
51
160202
3311
02:43
At how not having enough new people
52
163940
2312
02:46
is going to be a major problem moving forward.
53
166276
2571
02:49
According to the World Health Organization,
54
169180
2016
02:51
we need to average about 2.1 children per woman today
55
171220
3070
02:54
just so we have enough people to replace the previous generation.
56
174314
3739
02:58
A lot of you thought overpopulation was going to be a problem in 100 years --
57
178077
3625
03:01
yeah, it might be underpopulation.
58
181726
1681
03:03
So a question:
59
183431
1167
03:04
what happens if that number dips below 2.1?
60
184622
3254
03:08
There's going to be a domino effect.
61
188413
2040
03:10
As all of us get older, and live longer,
62
190477
2730
03:13
there's going to be a shrinking younger population,
63
193231
2806
03:16
which is going to lead to rising labor shortages
64
196061
2255
03:18
in the world's biggest economies.
65
198340
1610
03:19
I'm talking about United States, China, Japan, Germany.
66
199974
2888
03:22
Fewer younger working people means less tax revenue.
67
202886
2913
03:25
Less tax revenue means less money and resources
68
205823
2714
03:28
to go to safety net programs that all of us are going to depend upon.
69
208561
3246
03:31
I'm talking about pensions and health care.
70
211831
2460
03:34
It seems every generation is indeed connected.
71
214807
3476
03:38
But how the heck did we get here in the first place?
72
218855
2476
03:41
Well, in some cases, it was intentional.
73
221355
2841
03:44
Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times.
74
224220
3032
03:48
Let's stop in China.
75
228353
1898
03:50
Somewhere between the death of disco and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980.
76
230275
4579
03:55
In 1980, China decided to implement the one-child policy,
77
235275
4871
04:00
largely limiting most parents to having just one kid
78
240170
2643
04:02
to combat overpopulation.
79
242837
1722
04:04
Check out some good old-fashioned Chinese propaganda, lovely.
80
244583
3367
04:07
Now, fast-forward to 2019.
81
247974
2119
04:10
Even after ending its one-child policy in 2015,
82
250616
3255
04:13
China's birth rates have largely declined.
83
253895
2720
04:16
In fact, the falling population in China
84
256639
1936
04:18
is removing one of its biggest drivers of growth -- people.
85
258599
3640
04:22
If trends continue,
86
262615
1365
04:24
China's population is actually going to peak in 2029,
87
264004
3637
04:27
before entering "unstoppable decline."
88
267665
3688
04:31
China's government is so freaked out right now
89
271879
2651
04:34
that it's actually doing new propaganda --
90
274554
2023
04:36
it's begging couples to have children for the country.
91
276601
2910
04:40
Let's take the DeLorean and hop over to Japan,
92
280188
2588
04:42
home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.
93
282800
3040
04:45
(Laughter)
94
285864
1706
04:47
Japan is now producing more adult diapers than infant ones.
95
287594
5150
04:55
The number of kids in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year.
96
295212
5238
05:00
And unlike other countries,
97
300474
1318
05:01
it has not been able to replace its population numbers
98
301816
2723
05:04
through immigrant workers.
99
304563
1427
05:06
There will be labor shortages
100
306014
1469
05:07
and not enough money to fund the safety-net programs.
101
307507
2705
05:10
Now, Japan has introduced two solutions.
102
310236
2706
05:12
First, a financial incentive.
103
312966
1934
05:15
Some local governments in Japan have offered couples money to have babies,
104
315204
4809
05:20
with the money increasing with each additional child being born.
105
320037
3334
05:23
This actually worked for one year in 2014 in this town called Ama.
106
323395
4000
05:27
It actually raised the birth rate from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8.
107
327419
4986
05:32
But it did not gain traction across Japan.
108
332867
2635
05:35
In 2018, a leader of Japan's ruling party tried a new tack.
109
335526
4007
05:39
He told young people,
110
339855
1627
05:41
"You're selfish for not having babies."
111
341506
2600
05:44
Shockingly, shaming was not a rousing aphrodisiac.
112
344569
4784
05:49
Surprise, I know, surprise.
113
349851
1293
05:51
Who would have thought?
114
351168
1548
05:52
(Laughter)
115
352740
1150
05:54
Let's take the DeLorean to Europe,
116
354295
2441
05:56
the continent of delicious cheeses I love to eat but cannot pronounce.
117
356760
3907
06:01
The UK and much of Western Europe
118
361151
2000
06:03
has a birth rate of about 1.7 kids per woman,
119
363175
3119
06:06
which at least is better than Hungary, where it hovers around 1.45.
120
366318
4887
06:11
Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán
121
371545
2039
06:13
has proposed a new solution to try to incentivize people to have kids.
122
373608
3750
06:17
He said families where the women have four or more kids
123
377846
2659
06:20
will no longer pay income tax.
124
380529
2000
06:23
Pretty good, right, pretty good.
125
383617
2024
06:25
At least it's better than Russia's 2007 proposal,
126
385665
3141
06:28
which once offered women in a particular region
127
388830
2262
06:31
the opportunity of winning a fridge if they had more kids.
128
391116
3532
06:34
(Laughter)
129
394672
2039
06:36
Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work.
130
396735
2593
06:39
But hold on, pump the brakes.
131
399688
1707
06:41
Orbán is primarily proposing this because he wants to limit
132
401419
4134
06:45
the population of Muslims and people of color.
133
405577
3249
06:49
He says he doesn't think Hungary's traditions and culture and color
134
409286
4722
06:54
has to be "mixed with those of others."
135
414032
3961
06:58
Subtle.
136
418017
1339
06:59
Unfortunately for Orbán, and much of the EU,
137
419380
4865
07:04
the birth rates are not high enough right now
138
424269
2515
07:06
to be replenished without immigration.
139
426808
2533
07:09
Among EU countries, there is a demographic decline.
140
429974
3071
07:13
So it seems, in Europe, karma is going to be brown and Muslim.
141
433553
4476
07:18
(Laughter) (Applause)
142
438053
4539
07:22
Just saying.
143
442616
1150
07:24
The question remains:
144
444362
2175
07:26
Why aren't people having enough kids?
145
446561
2114
07:29
Why is the birth rate declining in these countries?
146
449157
2905
07:32
In some cases,
147
452530
1405
07:33
it's because women are more literate, more educated.
148
453959
3706
07:37
They have more economic opportunities -- applaud.
149
457689
2293
07:40
All good things, all good things, yes.
150
460006
2505
07:42
(Applause)
151
462535
2352
07:44
In India, this has been fantastic,
152
464911
1658
07:46
it has actually reduced the birth rate but kept it above that magic 2.1 number.
153
466593
4198
07:50
Women also have more access to birth control,
154
470815
2270
07:53
more control over their reproductive lives,
155
473109
2428
07:55
all good things.
156
475561
1921
07:58
But in the United States, in particular,
157
478141
3142
08:01
a lot of young people are opting out of having kids,
158
481307
2627
08:03
largely cite the same reason:
159
483958
2460
08:06
financial concerns.
160
486442
1267
08:08
Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland, the United States of America,
161
488022
4896
08:12
where the birth rate hit its historic low in 2017.
162
492942
5507
08:18
The United States is the most expensive country in the world
163
498473
4865
08:23
to give birth.
164
503362
1150
08:25
If you do not have insurance,
165
505196
1730
08:26
it will cost you 32,000 dollars to have a baby,
166
506950
3389
08:30
if everything goes perfectly.
167
510363
2047
08:33
That's like buying a brand new Honda Odyssey minivan, OK?
168
513133
2769
08:36
So, congratulations, you just had a baby,
169
516339
1984
08:38
but the baby's economic productivity is zero, and guess what?
170
518347
2874
08:41
The United States is the only industrialized country in the world
171
521245
3355
08:44
that does not require employers to offer paid parental leave.
172
524624
3785
08:48
"Mom, you just had a baby, congratulations, that's lovely.
173
528433
3794
08:52
Get back to work or you're fired, young mom!"
174
532251
2973
08:55
My wife and I, both working parents,
175
535865
2825
08:58
pay about 3,500 dollars a month -- a month -- in Virginia for childcare.
176
538714
4804
09:03
If you do the math, that's 40,000 dollars a year.
177
543905
2447
09:06
That's like buying a brand new, souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK.
178
546376
4095
09:10
I have one, I do not need 10.
179
550495
2910
09:15
So here's my bold suggestion.
180
555161
1934
09:17
Let's make it easier for people to have babies.
181
557820
4103
09:22
It seems in order to invest in our future, we actually have to invest in the present
182
562677
4000
09:26
and help those people who want to become parents.
183
566701
2937
09:29
Give them affordable health care,
184
569662
1912
09:31
give them affordable childcare,
185
571598
1842
09:33
give them paid parental leave.
186
573464
2000
09:36
Among the EU states in 2017, France reported the highest birth rates.
187
576067
4399
09:40
Why?
188
580490
1151
09:41
Largely due to its pronatal policies
189
581665
2245
09:43
that actually kept women in the workforce.
190
583934
2215
09:46
I'm talking about subsidized daycare and paid maternal leave.
191
586173
3758
09:50
China and Japan, thank God, are finally wisening up
192
590614
3032
09:53
and proposing such policies.
193
593670
1405
09:55
This is great.
194
595099
1150
09:56
That being said, I know some of you have listened to me
195
596797
3045
09:59
and you still think the best investment we can make in the future
196
599866
3106
10:02
is not having babies.
197
602996
1455
10:05
I respect that.
198
605025
1317
10:06
I get where you're coming from.
199
606366
1492
10:07
And I know many of you in this audience want to have babies
200
607882
4915
10:12
but you are terrified about the future.
201
612821
2150
10:15
And as a parent, I feel you.
202
615399
1946
10:18
I'm scared about the future.
203
618304
1566
10:20
I wrote that last line a month ago.
204
620680
1973
10:23
But it really hit home three days ago for me,
205
623117
2770
10:25
while I was at TED.
206
625911
1920
10:29
Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying.
207
629320
3000
10:32
I pick it up in my hotel room.
208
632344
1667
10:34
And she said, "I'm calling from the hospital."
209
634035
2388
10:36
We had to take my baby daughter Nusayba,
210
636447
2019
10:38
who was named after a warrior princess,
211
638490
1944
10:40
to the hospital, because she found a bump on the stomach.
212
640458
2921
10:43
We got back the results, and there were bumps all around her liver.
213
643403
3238
10:47
Today, this morning, we found out that she has stage IV liver cancer.
214
647945
3992
10:51
(Audience gasps)
215
651961
1507
11:00
It has been a challenging week.
216
660493
2067
11:03
It has been a challenging week.
217
663271
1595
11:04
And if I may, I just want to take a moment
218
664890
2655
11:07
to acknowledge the TED staff, everyone, top-down,
219
667569
3151
11:10
everyone in the back, in the green room, some of the speakers, word has spread.
220
670744
3801
11:14
On behalf of my family, my wife,
221
674569
1905
11:16
and my parents -- my Pakistani parents said I had to say this --
222
676498
3015
11:19
thank you for just being decent and kind this week.
223
679537
2699
11:22
So thank you.
224
682260
1286
11:23
(Applause)
225
683570
6435
11:31
These are my beloveds, my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies.
226
691109
4242
11:36
I talked to my wife,
227
696010
1802
11:37
and despite the terrible news and the fight ahead,
228
697836
2365
11:40
we both concluded that we regret nothing.
229
700225
4275
11:45
Deciding to have babies was the best decision we ever made.
230
705625
3941
11:50
Our babies have brought us so much joy and they've brought the world so much joy,
231
710601
4008
11:54
and having kids is a risk, but life is a risk.
232
714633
3133
11:58
And yes, I hope you've been paying attention,
233
718339
2119
12:00
we need to invest in babies in developed countries
234
720482
2341
12:02
if we want to help save our economy and pensions.
235
722847
2309
12:05
But that's not the reason you have babies.
236
725180
2008
12:07
That's not the main reason.
237
727212
1778
12:09
Babies have always represented
238
729014
1904
12:10
humanity's best, boldest, most beautiful infinite possibilities.
239
730942
4786
12:16
And if we in developed countries,
240
736435
1753
12:18
as a whole, opt out,
241
738212
2603
12:20
and don't invest in present and future generations,
242
740839
2389
12:23
then what the hell's the point?
243
743252
1904
12:25
What's the point of being on this absurd journey together?
244
745180
3934
12:29
And so, for those who can and who choose to,
245
749823
4318
12:34
for those who can and who choose to have kids,
246
754165
3849
12:38
may you pass on this beautiful thing called life,
247
758038
4605
12:42
with kindness, generosity,
248
762667
3746
12:46
decency and love.
249
766437
2746
12:50
Thank you.
250
770604
1150
12:51
(Applause)
251
771778
7000
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7