The case for having kids | Wajahat Ali

133,566 views ・ 2019-05-31

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:12
I'm an exhausted dad.
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Currently owned and dominated by two mini dictators,
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who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers.
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(Laughter)
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Now probably because I've been drowning in small people lately,
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I've been paying close attention to a particular headline.
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It seems around the world, in developed countries,
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people are having fewer babies.
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From North America to Europe to China to Japan,
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there's actually been a consistent decline in birth rates.
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In fact, over the past 50 years,
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the global fertility rate has halved.
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What the heck is going on?
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Now, my friends who don't want kids,
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all point to climate change as a reason for never having babies.
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And many of you are sitting there right now, saying,
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"Waj, there's also overpopulation,
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there's also high birth rates,
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which still exist in many African and Middle Eastern countries,
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there's also orphan kids who still need parents,
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there's also a lack of resources to go around for everyone,
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and oh, by the way,
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we have a ginormous carbon footprint that is destroying this planet.
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I hear you, I hear you.
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And yet, despite all this chaos,
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I still think we should have babies.
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I believe we can and should fight for the earth and humanity,
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side by side.
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Now, if I could take it personal for a second,
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I get it, I get why some of you might be skeptical about having babies.
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Here's a photo of my wife and me before we had kids.
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Young, happy, fresh.
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(Laughter)
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Here's a photo of me after having kids.
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A broken, defeated husk of a man.
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(Laughter)
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Here's the photo of the car I thought I'd be driving as an adult.
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A Porsche.
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Here's what I actually drive.
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A Honda Odyssey minivan.
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(Laughter)
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(Applause)
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For the minivan.
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Where there was once hope, now there is convenient space,
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and good mileage, good mileage.
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Now, I just want to stress
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that I'm completely aware of the very dire threats
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of global warming and climate change.
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I just want to acknowledge that choosing to have babies
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is a deeply, profoundly personal choice.
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And that many who want to are unable.
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But just for today, let's examine the flip side of the coin.
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At how not having enough new people
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is going to be a major problem moving forward.
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According to the World Health Organization,
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we need to average about 2.1 children per woman today
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just so we have enough people to replace the previous generation.
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A lot of you thought overpopulation was going to be a problem in 100 years --
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yeah, it might be underpopulation.
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So a question:
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what happens if that number dips below 2.1?
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There's going to be a domino effect.
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As all of us get older, and live longer,
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there's going to be a shrinking younger population,
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which is going to lead to rising labor shortages
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in the world's biggest economies.
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I'm talking about United States, China, Japan, Germany.
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Fewer younger working people means less tax revenue.
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Less tax revenue means less money and resources
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to go to safety net programs that all of us are going to depend upon.
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I'm talking about pensions and health care.
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It seems every generation is indeed connected.
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But how the heck did we get here in the first place?
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Well, in some cases, it was intentional.
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Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times.
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Let's stop in China.
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Somewhere between the death of disco and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980.
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In 1980, China decided to implement the one-child policy,
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largely limiting most parents to having just one kid
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to combat overpopulation.
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Check out some good old-fashioned Chinese propaganda, lovely.
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Now, fast-forward to 2019.
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Even after ending its one-child policy in 2015,
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China's birth rates have largely declined.
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In fact, the falling population in China
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is removing one of its biggest drivers of growth -- people.
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If trends continue,
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China's population is actually going to peak in 2029,
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before entering "unstoppable decline."
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China's government is so freaked out right now
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that it's actually doing new propaganda --
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it's begging couples to have children for the country.
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Let's take the DeLorean and hop over to Japan,
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home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.
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(Laughter)
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Japan is now producing more adult diapers than infant ones.
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The number of kids in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year.
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And unlike other countries,
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it has not been able to replace its population numbers
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through immigrant workers.
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There will be labor shortages
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and not enough money to fund the safety-net programs.
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Now, Japan has introduced two solutions.
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First, a financial incentive.
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Some local governments in Japan have offered couples money to have babies,
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with the money increasing with each additional child being born.
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This actually worked for one year in 2014 in this town called Ama.
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It actually raised the birth rate from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8.
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But it did not gain traction across Japan.
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In 2018, a leader of Japan's ruling party tried a new tack.
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He told young people,
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"You're selfish for not having babies."
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Shockingly, shaming was not a rousing aphrodisiac.
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Surprise, I know, surprise.
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Who would have thought?
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(Laughter)
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Let's take the DeLorean to Europe,
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the continent of delicious cheeses I love to eat but cannot pronounce.
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The UK and much of Western Europe
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has a birth rate of about 1.7 kids per woman,
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which at least is better than Hungary, where it hovers around 1.45.
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Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán
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has proposed a new solution to try to incentivize people to have kids.
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He said families where the women have four or more kids
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will no longer pay income tax.
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Pretty good, right, pretty good.
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At least it's better than Russia's 2007 proposal,
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which once offered women in a particular region
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the opportunity of winning a fridge if they had more kids.
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(Laughter)
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Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work.
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But hold on, pump the brakes.
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Orbán is primarily proposing this because he wants to limit
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the population of Muslims and people of color.
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He says he doesn't think Hungary's traditions and culture and color
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has to be "mixed with those of others."
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Subtle.
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Unfortunately for Orbán, and much of the EU,
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the birth rates are not high enough right now
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to be replenished without immigration.
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Among EU countries, there is a demographic decline.
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So it seems, in Europe, karma is going to be brown and Muslim.
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(Laughter) (Applause)
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Just saying.
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The question remains:
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Why aren't people having enough kids?
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Why is the birth rate declining in these countries?
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In some cases,
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it's because women are more literate, more educated.
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They have more economic opportunities -- applaud.
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All good things, all good things, yes.
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(Applause)
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In India, this has been fantastic,
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it has actually reduced the birth rate but kept it above that magic 2.1 number.
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Women also have more access to birth control,
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more control over their reproductive lives,
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all good things.
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But in the United States, in particular,
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a lot of young people are opting out of having kids,
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largely cite the same reason:
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financial concerns.
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Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland, the United States of America,
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where the birth rate hit its historic low in 2017.
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The United States is the most expensive country in the world
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to give birth.
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If you do not have insurance,
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it will cost you 32,000 dollars to have a baby,
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if everything goes perfectly.
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That's like buying a brand new Honda Odyssey minivan, OK?
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So, congratulations, you just had a baby,
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but the baby's economic productivity is zero, and guess what?
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The United States is the only industrialized country in the world
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that does not require employers to offer paid parental leave.
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"Mom, you just had a baby, congratulations, that's lovely.
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Get back to work or you're fired, young mom!"
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My wife and I, both working parents,
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pay about 3,500 dollars a month -- a month -- in Virginia for childcare.
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If you do the math, that's 40,000 dollars a year.
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That's like buying a brand new, souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK.
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I have one, I do not need 10.
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So here's my bold suggestion.
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Let's make it easier for people to have babies.
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It seems in order to invest in our future, we actually have to invest in the present
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and help those people who want to become parents.
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Give them affordable health care,
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give them affordable childcare,
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give them paid parental leave.
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Among the EU states in 2017, France reported the highest birth rates.
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Why?
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Largely due to its pronatal policies
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that actually kept women in the workforce.
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I'm talking about subsidized daycare and paid maternal leave.
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China and Japan, thank God, are finally wisening up
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and proposing such policies.
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This is great.
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That being said, I know some of you have listened to me
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and you still think the best investment we can make in the future
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is not having babies.
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I respect that.
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I get where you're coming from.
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And I know many of you in this audience want to have babies
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but you are terrified about the future.
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And as a parent, I feel you.
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I'm scared about the future.
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I wrote that last line a month ago.
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But it really hit home three days ago for me,
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while I was at TED.
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Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying.
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I pick it up in my hotel room.
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And she said, "I'm calling from the hospital."
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We had to take my baby daughter Nusayba,
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who was named after a warrior princess,
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to the hospital, because she found a bump on the stomach.
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We got back the results, and there were bumps all around her liver.
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Today, this morning, we found out that she has stage IV liver cancer.
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(Audience gasps)
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It has been a challenging week.
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It has been a challenging week.
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And if I may, I just want to take a moment
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to acknowledge the TED staff, everyone, top-down,
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everyone in the back, in the green room, some of the speakers, word has spread.
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On behalf of my family, my wife,
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and my parents -- my Pakistani parents said I had to say this --
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thank you for just being decent and kind this week.
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So thank you.
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(Applause)
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These are my beloveds, my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies.
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I talked to my wife,
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and despite the terrible news and the fight ahead,
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we both concluded that we regret nothing.
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Deciding to have babies was the best decision we ever made.
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Our babies have brought us so much joy and they've brought the world so much joy,
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and having kids is a risk, but life is a risk.
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And yes, I hope you've been paying attention,
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we need to invest in babies in developed countries
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if we want to help save our economy and pensions.
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But that's not the reason you have babies.
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That's not the main reason.
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Babies have always represented
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humanity's best, boldest, most beautiful infinite possibilities.
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And if we in developed countries,
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as a whole, opt out,
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and don't invest in present and future generations,
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then what the hell's the point?
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What's the point of being on this absurd journey together?
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And so, for those who can and who choose to,
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for those who can and who choose to have kids,
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may you pass on this beautiful thing called life,
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with kindness, generosity,
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decency and love.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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