The case for having kids | Wajahat Ali

譯者: Helen Chang 審譯者: Marssi Draw

I'm an exhausted dad.

我是個筋疲力盡的爸爸。

Currently owned and dominated by two mini dictators,

目前被兩個迷你獨裁者 所擁有及支配著，

who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers.

他們穿著好奇寶寶尿布， 用鐵腕統治著我。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now probably because I've been drowning in small people lately,

可能是因為我近來 一直淹沒在小小人堆裡，

I've been paying close attention to a particular headline.

我密切關注某個特定的頭條：

It seems around the world, in developed countries,

似乎在世界各地的已開發國家裡，

people are having fewer babies.

人們生育得更少了。

From North America to Europe to China to Japan,

從北美到歐洲，從中國到日本，

there's actually been a consistent decline in birth rates.

出生率真的在持續下降。

In fact, over the past 50 years,

事實上，在過去的 50 年裡，

the global fertility rate has halved.

全球生育率已經減半。

What the heck is going on?

到底怎麼搞的？

Now, my friends who don't want kids,

如今我那些不想要孩子的朋友們

all point to climate change as a reason for never having babies.

都把氣候變遷當作不生孩子的理由。

And many of you are sitting there right now, saying,

現在坐在你們當中的許多人說：

"Waj, there's also overpopulation,

「瓦巨，還有人口過剩，

there's also high birth rates,

高出生率仍是許多非洲 和中東國家的景況，

which still exist in many African and Middle Eastern countries,

there's also orphan kids who still need parents,

還有孤兒需要父母認養，

there's also a lack of resources to go around for everyone,

資源不夠給每個人用，

and oh, by the way,

哦，順便提一下，

we have a ginormous carbon footprint that is destroying this planet.

還有巨量的碳足跡正摧毀這個星球。

I hear you, I hear you.

我聽到了，聽到了。

And yet, despite all this chaos,

然而，儘管有這些亂糟糟的情況，

I still think we should have babies.

我仍然認為我們應該生孩子。

I believe we can and should fight for the earth and humanity,

我相信我們能夠而且應該

為地球和人類並肩作戰。

side by side.

Now, if I could take it personal for a second,

請讓我稍以自身為例，

I get it, I get why some of you might be skeptical about having babies.

我完全明白你們當中有些人 對生孩子抱持著懷疑的態度。

Here's a photo of my wife and me before we had kids.

這是愛妻和我生小孩前的一張照片。

Young, happy, fresh.

年輕、快樂、清新。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Here's a photo of me after having kids.

這是我有孩子後的照片。

A broken, defeated husk of a man.

一具破碎、被擊垮的身軀。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Here's the photo of the car I thought I'd be driving as an adult.

原先我以為成年後 要開照片裡這樣的車。

A Porsche.

保時捷。

Here's what I actually drive.

這是我實際上開的車。

A Honda Odyssey minivan.

本田奧德賽休旅車。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

For the minivan.

休旅車。

Where there was once hope, now there is convenient space,

曾經有過的希望 現在換成方便的空間，

and good mileage, good mileage.

還省油。

Now, I just want to stress

我只想強調，

that I'm completely aware of the very dire threats

我完全清楚全球暖化和氣候變遷

of global warming and climate change.

帶來的極端威脅。

I just want to acknowledge that choosing to have babies

我只想確認選擇生孩子

is a deeply, profoundly personal choice.

是個極為深刻的個人選擇。

And that many who want to are unable.

許多想生的人無法生。

But just for today, let's examine the flip side of the coin.

但今天讓我們看看另一面。

At how not having enough new people

沒有足夠的新生兒

is going to be a major problem moving forward.

何以成為向前邁進的主要問題。

According to the World Health Organization,

世界衛生組織指出，

we need to average about 2.1 children per woman today

現在每名婦女 平均要生 2.1 個孩子，

just so we have enough people to replace the previous generation.

才有足夠的人來接替上一代。

A lot of you thought overpopulation was going to be a problem in 100 years --

很多人認為百年內 人口過剩將會成為問題——

對啦，問題也可能會是人口不足。

yeah, it might be underpopulation.

So a question:

試問：

what happens if that number dips below 2.1?

如果生育率低於 2.1 會怎樣？

There's going to be a domino effect.

會發生骨牌效應。

As all of us get older, and live longer,

隨著我們所有人變老、活得更久，

there's going to be a shrinking younger population,

年輕的人口將會萎縮，

which is going to lead to rising labor shortages

將導致世界最大經濟體的 勞動力短缺問題日益嚴重。

in the world's biggest economies.

I'm talking about United States, China, Japan, Germany.

我說的是美國、中國、日本、德國。

Fewer younger working people means less tax revenue.

年輕勞動力的減少意味著稅收減少。

Less tax revenue means less money and resources

稅收減少意味著更少的資金和資源

to go to safety net programs that all of us are going to depend upon.

用在我們人人依賴的安全網上。

I'm talking about pensions and health care.

我說的是養老金和醫療保健，

It seems every generation is indeed connected.

那似乎與每一個世代都息息相關。

But how the heck did we get here in the first place?

但首先到底為什麼 我們會淪落到這步田地？

Well, in some cases, it was intentional.

某些情況是故意為之。

Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times.

讓我們把迪羅倫時光汽車 開回到昔時單純的年代。

Let's stop in China.

讓我們停在中國，

Somewhere between the death of disco and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980.

停在迪斯可沒落 和 《星戰五部曲：帝國大反擊》間，

1980 年。

In 1980, China decided to implement the one-child policy,

中國在 1980 年決定 實施一胎化政策，

largely limiting most parents to having just one kid

大規模限制多數父母 只能夠生一個孩子，

to combat overpopulation.

來對抗人口過剩問題。

Check out some good old-fashioned Chinese propaganda, lovely.

看這些可愛、老式的中國宣傳。

Now, fast-forward to 2019.

現在，快轉到 2019 年。

Even after ending its one-child policy in 2015,

即使一胎化政策 已在 2015 年鬆綁了，

China's birth rates have largely declined.

中國的出生率已然大幅下降。

In fact, the falling population in China

事實上，中國的人口下降正消泯

is removing one of its biggest drivers of growth -- people.

其最大增長推動力之一

——人。

If trends continue,

倘若此趨勢持續下去，

China's population is actually going to peak in 2029,

中國的人口將在 2029 年達到頂峰，

before entering "unstoppable decline."

然後陷入「無法阻擋的衰退」。

China's government is so freaked out right now

現在中國政府嚇壞了，

that it's actually doing new propaganda --

所以正推出新的宣傳——

it's begging couples to have children for the country.

懇求夫妻「為國家」生孩子。

Let's take the DeLorean and hop over to Japan,

讓我們乘坐迪羅倫時光汽車跳到日本，

home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.

我心愛的本田奧德賽休旅車的故鄉。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Japan is now producing more adult diapers than infant ones.

日本現在生產的成人紙尿褲 比嬰兒尿布還多。

The number of kids in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year.

日本的孩子人口連續減少 37 年。

And unlike other countries,

與其他國家不同，

it has not been able to replace its population numbers

它無法透過移工填補人口數。

through immigrant workers.

There will be labor shortages

日本將出現勞動力短缺，

and not enough money to fund the safety-net programs.

以及安全網計劃的資金不足。

Now, Japan has introduced two solutions.

現在日本推出了兩種解決方案。

First, a financial incentive.

一是經濟的獎勵。

Some local governments in Japan have offered couples money to have babies,

有些日本地方政府發獎金鼓勵生育，

with the money increasing with each additional child being born.

生越多，給的錢就越多。

This actually worked for one year in 2014 in this town called Ama.

2014 年時用在這個名為 海士町的小鎮真的有效。

It actually raised the birth rate from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8.

將出生率從每名婦女約生 1.66 個孩子提高到 1.8 個。

But it did not gain traction across Japan.

但未能在日本各地帶起風潮。

In 2018, a leader of Japan's ruling party tried a new tack.

2018年，日本執政黨 領導人嘗試新策略。

He told young people,

他告訴年輕人：

"You're selfish for not having babies."

「不生孩子是自私的行為。」

Shockingly, shaming was not a rousing aphrodisiac.

令人大吃一驚的是， 羞辱並不是激動人心的壯陽藥。

Surprise, I know, surprise.

意外，真意外。

Who would have thought?

誰想得到？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Let's take the DeLorean to Europe,

讓我們搭乘迪羅倫時光汽車到歐洲，

the continent of delicious cheeses I love to eat but cannot pronounce.

歐陸出產我愛吃 卻叫不出名字的美味起司。

The UK and much of Western Europe

英國和西歐大部分地區的出生率

has a birth rate of about 1.7 kids per woman,

約為每名婦女生 1.7 個孩子，

which at least is better than Hungary, where it hovers around 1.45.

至少比匈牙利的 1.45 上下來的好。

Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán

現在，匈牙利總理 維克多·奧爾班

has proposed a new solution to try to incentivize people to have kids.

提出一個新的解決方案， 試圖鼓勵人們生孩子。

He said families where the women have four or more kids

他說，女性生了四個孩子以上的家庭

will no longer pay income tax.

無需再繳納所得稅。

Pretty good, right, pretty good.

非常好，對，非常好。

At least it's better than Russia's 2007 proposal,

至少比俄羅斯 2007 年的提案要好，

which once offered women in a particular region

他們曾為某個地區的女性 提供獲得冰箱的機會，

the opportunity of winning a fridge if they had more kids.

只要她們多生幾個孩子。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work.

沒錯，沒有用，無效。

But hold on, pump the brakes.

但等一下，踩個剎車。

Orbán is primarily proposing this because he wants to limit

奧爾班這個提議主要是因為

他想限制穆斯林和有色人種的人口。

the population of Muslims and people of color.

He says he doesn't think Hungary's traditions and culture and color

他說他不認為匈牙利的 傳統、文化和色彩

has to be "mixed with those of others."

必須「與其他人混合」。

Subtle.

微妙。

Unfortunately for Orbán, and much of the EU,

不幸的是，對於奧爾班 和歐盟的大部分地區而言，

the birth rates are not high enough right now

如果除去移民，

to be replenished without immigration.

目前的出生率不足以補充人口。

Among EU countries, there is a demographic decline.

歐盟國家的人口減少。

So it seems, in Europe, karma is going to be brown and Muslim.

因此似乎在歐洲，業力 將轉化為棕皮膚和穆斯林。

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑聲）（掌聲）

Just saying.

說說而已。

The question remains:

問題仍然存在：

Why aren't people having enough kids?

為什麼大家生的孩子不夠多？

Why is the birth rate declining in these countries?

為什麼這些國家的出生率會下降？

In some cases,

某些情況下

it's because women are more literate, more educated.

是因為女性的文化程度更高， 受教育的程度更高。

They have more economic opportunities -- applaud.

她們有更多的經濟機會——鼓掌。

All good things, all good things, yes.

這些都很好，都些都很好，沒錯。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

In India, this has been fantastic,

在印度很神奇，

it has actually reduced the birth rate but kept it above that magic 2.1 number.

實際上印度的出生率降低了， 但保持略高於 2.1 那個神奇數字。

Women also have more access to birth control,

婦女也獲得更多節育的機會，

more control over their reproductive lives,

更能掌控其生育的生活，

all good things.

這些都很好。

But in the United States, in particular,

但是尤其在美國，

a lot of young people are opting out of having kids,

很多年輕人選擇不生孩子，

largely cite the same reason:

主要歸究於同樣的原因：

financial concerns.

財務問題。

Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland, the United States of America,

讓我們把迪羅倫時空汽車 開到我的祖國：美國，

where the birth rate hit its historic low in 2017.

那裡的出生率在 2017 年 達到歷史新低。

The United States is the most expensive country in the world

美國是世界上

生育最昂貴的國家。

to give birth.

If you do not have insurance,

如果沒有保險，

it will cost you 32,000 dollars to have a baby,

生個孩子將花費 32,000 美元，

if everything goes perfectly.

前提是一切順利。

That's like buying a brand new Honda Odyssey minivan, OK?

這就像買一輛全新的 本田奧德賽休旅車，知道嗎？

So, congratulations, you just had a baby,

因此，恭喜你剛喜獲麟兒，

but the baby's economic productivity is zero, and guess what?

但寶寶沒任何經濟生產力，

猜猜怎麼著？

The United States is the only industrialized country in the world

美國是世上唯一不要求雇主

that does not require employers to offer paid parental leave.

提供帶薪育嬰假的工業化國家。

"Mom, you just had a baby, congratulations, that's lovely.

「恭喜年輕的媽媽， 妳剛生了個孩子，很好，

Get back to work or you're fired, young mom!"

回去工作，

要不然妳就要被解雇了！」

My wife and I, both working parents,

我們夫婦兩人都工作，

pay about 3,500 dollars a month -- a month -- in Virginia for childcare.

在維吉尼亞州每個月托兒大約 支付 3500 美元，一個月哦。

If you do the math, that's 40,000 dollars a year.

加總起來是每年 4 萬美元。

That's like buying a brand new, souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK.

這就像買一輛全新、配備齊全的 本田奧德賽小型貨車，知道吧。

I have one, I do not need 10.

我有一輛，不需要 10 輛。

So here's my bold suggestion.

所以我大膽提議：

Let's make it easier for people to have babies.

讓生兒育女變輕鬆一點。

It seems in order to invest in our future, we actually have to invest in the present

看來為了投資未來，

我們真的必須投資於現在，

and help those people who want to become parents.

幫助那些想當父母親的人。

Give them affordable health care,

給他們負擔得起的醫療保健，

give them affordable childcare,

給他們負擔得起的托兒服務，

give them paid parental leave.

給他們帶薪育嬰假。

Among the EU states in 2017, France reported the highest birth rates.

在 2017 年的歐盟國家中， 法國的出生率最高。

Why?

為什麼？

Largely due to its pronatal policies

主要是由於法國有利的生育政策

that actually kept women in the workforce.

讓女性真能留在勞動市場上。

I'm talking about subsidized daycare and paid maternal leave.

我說的是補貼日托和帶薪的產假。

China and Japan, thank God, are finally wisening up

感謝上帝，中國和日本

終於提出這樣的政策。

and proposing such policies.

This is great.

這很棒。

That being said, I know some of you have listened to me

話雖如此，我知道有些人

聽了我的話仍然認為

and you still think the best investment we can make in the future

對最好的未來投資就是不生孩子。

is not having babies.

I respect that.

我尊重。

I get where you're coming from.

我明白你們的思維。

And I know many of you in this audience want to have babies

我也知道聽眾裡 有很多人想要生孩子，

but you are terrified about the future.

但是對未來感到害怕。

And as a parent, I feel you.

作為父母，我感同身受。

I'm scared about the future.

我害怕未來。

I wrote that last line a month ago.

我在一個月前寫下剛剛那句話。

But it really hit home three days ago for me,

但是三天前我才充分意識到，

while I was at TED.

當時我就在 TED 這裡。

Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying.

三天前，我妻子哭著打電話給我。

I pick it up in my hotel room.

我在旅館房裡接到電話。

And she said, "I'm calling from the hospital."

她說：「我是從醫院打來的。」

We had to take my baby daughter Nusayba,

我們不得不帶著女兒努賽巴——

who was named after a warrior princess,

她以一位公主戰士的名字命名——

to the hospital, because she found a bump on the stomach.

去了醫院，因為她發現 孩子的肚子上有一硬塊。

We got back the results, and there were bumps all around her liver.

我們獲知她的肝臟周圍都是腫瘤。

Today, this morning, we found out that she has stage IV liver cancer.

今天早上我們得知她肝癌第四期。

(Audience gasps)

（觀眾震驚，倒抽一口氣）

It has been a challenging week.

這是充滿挑戰的一週。

It has been a challenging week.

這是充滿挑戰的一週。

And if I may, I just want to take a moment

請讓我花一點時間

to acknowledge the TED staff, everyone, top-down,

答謝 TED 的工作人員， 每個人，從上到下，

everyone in the back, in the green room, some of the speakers, word has spread.

後面的、休息室的每個人， 一些講者，話傳開來了。

On behalf of my family, my wife,

我代表家人、妻子

and my parents -- my Pakistani parents said I had to say this --

和父母——我巴基斯坦的父母——

我必須說：

thank you for just being decent and kind this week.

謝謝你們在過去一週 對我如此親切與和善。

So thank you.

謝謝你們。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

These are my beloveds, my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies.

這是我心愛的易卜拉欣和努賽巴，

我的寶貝。

I talked to my wife,

我和妻子談過，

and despite the terrible news and the fight ahead,

儘管有可怕的消息和眼前的挑戰，

we both concluded that we regret nothing.

我們都得出結論，我們不後悔。

Deciding to have babies was the best decision we ever made.

決定生孩子是我們做過的最好決定。

Our babies have brought us so much joy and they've brought the world so much joy,

孩子給我們帶來如此多的快樂，

給世界帶來如此多的快樂，

and having kids is a risk, but life is a risk.

擁有孩子有風險， 但生命本來就有風險。

And yes, I hope you've been paying attention,

沒錯，我希望你們一直在注意聽，

we need to invest in babies in developed countries

如果想挽救經濟和養老金，

if we want to help save our economy and pensions.

我們已開放國家 必需投資在嬰兒身上。

But that's not the reason you have babies.

但這不是你生孩子的原因。

That's not the main reason.

不是主要的原因。

Babies have always represented

嬰兒一直代表著人類最好、

humanity's best, boldest, most beautiful infinite possibilities.

最大膽、最美麗的無限可能。

And if we in developed countries,

如果我們已開放國家

as a whole, opt out,

作為整體，選擇退出，

and don't invest in present and future generations,

不投資於當代和後代，

then what the hell's the point?

那還有什麼意義呢？

What's the point of being on this absurd journey together?

共同走一趟這荒謬的 人生旅程有什麼意義呢？

And so, for those who can and who choose to,

因此，對於那些能選而且選了的人，

for those who can and who choose to have kids,

那些能選而且選擇生孩子的人來說，

may you pass on this beautiful thing called life,

你們將美好的生命

with kindness, generosity,

與善良、慷慨、

decency and love.

正直和愛傳遞下去。

Thank you.

謝謝你們。

(Applause)

（掌聲）