Chris Anderson (Wired): Technology's Long Tail

翻译人员: Jenny Yang 校对人员: Haohao Chen

I'd like to speak about technology trends,

我想谈谈技术的发展趋势。

which is something that many of you follow --

那是你们很多人关注的问题

but we also follow, for related reasons.

我们因为相关的原因也关注它。

Obviously, being a technology magazine, technology trends

显然，做为技术杂志，

are something that we write about and need to know about.

技术趋势是我们需要撰写和了解的东西。

But also it's part of being any monthly magazine --

但是和所有月刊一样，

you live in the future. And we have a long lead-time.

你们读者生活在未来。所以我们需要提前准备。

We have to plan issues many months in advance;

我们每一期杂志都是几个月前就需要准备，

we have to guess at what public appetites are going to be six months,

我们需要揣测六个月以后公众的阅读口味，

nine months down the road. So we're in the forecasting business.

甚至九个月以后的。所以我们做的是预报工作。

We also, like a lot of companies, create a product

我们也和其他公司一样，创造产品

that's based on technology trends.

那是建立在技术走势的基础上的产品

In this case, ours is about ideas and information, and, if we're lucky,

在这种情况下, 我们的产品是思想和信息，如果幸运的话

some entertainment. But the concept's quite the same.

还有一些娱乐，但是概念是一样的。

And so we have to understand

所以我们需要了解

not only why tech's important, where it's going,

不但为什么某些技术是重要的，它们朝哪个方向发展

but also, very importantly, when -- the timing is everything.

更重要的是，什么时候 ─ 时间就是一切

And it's interesting, when you look at the predictions made

有趣的是，当你回顾一些预言

during the peak of the boom in the 1990s, about e-commerce,

那些在90年代技术爆炸高潮期关于电子商务的预言

or Internet traffic, or broadband adoption, or Internet advertising,

或者有关互联网流量，宽带使用和网络广告的预言

they were all right -- they were just wrong in time.

他们都是正确的，只不过预言的时间不对

Almost every one of those has come true just a few years later.

而且几乎所有这些都在几年以后成为现实。

But the difference of a few years on stock-market valuations

但是几年时间在股票市场价值上造成的差异

is obviously extreme. And that's why timing is everything.

显然是巨大的。所以说时间就是一切。

You've probably seen something like this before.

你以前很可能也见过这个。

This is the classic Gartner Hype Curve, which talks about

这是经典的Gartner Hype曲线，讲述了

kind of the trajectory of a technology's lifespan.

技术生命周期的轨迹

And just for fun, we put a bunch of technologies on it,

为了好玩，我们在上面放过很多技术

to show whether they were kind of rising for the first high peak,

来展示它们是正在迎接第一个高峰来临的上升期

or whether they were about to crash

还是将要毁灭，

into the trough of disillusionment,

跌入低谷期，

or rise back in the slope of enlightenment, etc.

或是回到攀升期，徘徊期

And this is one way to do technology forecasting: get a sense

这是预测技术走势的一种方法，估算一下

of where technology is and then anticipate the next upturn.

技术在哪里，然后预见下一个转机

We tend to do any technology that we think is sufficiently important;

我们倾向于分析任何我们认为足够重要的技术

we'll typically do it twice. Once, we want to do it first.

我们通常做两次，第一次是为了抢先

We want to be the first to do it, for the geeks who appreciate that,

第一次是为那些喜欢获取这些信息的奇客而做，

we'll catch it right there at the technology-trigger.

我们会在萌芽期抓住了这些新技术。

You can see in 1997, we put Linux on the cover.

你们可以看到我们把 Linux 放在了1997的封面上

But then it comes back. And sufficiently big technologies

然而它们又会回来。任何重大技术

are going to hit the mainstream, and they're going to burst out.

都会进入主流，然后爆发。

And then it's time to do it again. Last year.

所以去年， 就是再做一次的好时机

And that's one way that we try to time technology trends.

这就是我们为技术趋势计时的一种办法。

I'd like to talk about a way of thinking about technology trends

我还想说说怎样思考技术趋势。

that I call my "grand unified theory of predicting the future,"

我可以将之称为预言未来的宏大统一理论，

but it's closer to a petite unified theory of predicting the future.

但是其实它更接近预言未来的袖珍统一理论。

It's based on the presumption, the observation even,

它是基于假定甚至观察。

that all important technologies go through four stages in their life --

那就是： 所有的重要技术都经历过四个阶段--

at least one of the four stages, sometimes all four of the stages.

至少四个中的一个阶段，有时是所有四个阶段。

And at each one of these stages, can be seen as a collision --

而其中的每个阶段都可以被看做一次撞击。

a collision with something else --

一次与其他的事物的撞击--

for example, a critical price-line that changes both the technology

比如，一个临界价格线会改变技术

and also changes its effect on the world. It's an inflection point.

和它对世界的影响。它是一个转变的契机。

And these are the inflection points that tell you

这些契机会告诉你

what the next chapter in that technology's life is going to be,

这项技术的下一个篇章是什么，

and maybe how you can do something about it.

以及你可以对它做些什么。

The first is the critical price.

第一阶段就是临界价格

The first stage in a technology's advance

技术发展的第一个阶段是

is that it'll fall below a critical price.

它的价格降到临界价格以下。

After it falls below a critical price, it will tend,

当它低于临界价格后，

if it's successful, to rise above a critical mass, a penetration.

如果它是一种成功的技术， 就会超越临界量， 形成突破。

Many technologies, at that point, displace another technology,

很多技术在各这个时候就取代了另一个技术，

and that's another important point.

这也是另外一个重点。

And then finally, a lot of technologies commoditize.

最终，很多技术商品化了。

Towards the end of their life, they become nearly free.

接近它们生命周期的尾声时，它们就几乎成了免费的了。

Each one of those is an opportunity to do something about it;

这其中， 每个阶段都提供了机会给我们。

it's an opportunity for the technology to change.

它是一种技术转折的机会。

And even if you missed, you know, the first boom of Wi-Fi --

即便是你错过了第一阶段，比如第一波 Wi-Fi 热潮

you know, Wi-Fi did the critical price, it did the critical mass,

你知道，Wi-Fi经历了临界价格和临界量两个阶段

but hasn't done displacement yet, and hasn't done free yet --

但是它还完成取代阶段，更还没去到免费的阶段 ─

there's still more opportunity in that.

所以其中还有机会。

I'd like to demonstrate what I mean by this

我想用DVD的故事来说明

by telling the story of the DVD,

我想表达的意思。

which is a technology which has done all of these.

因为这个技术已经经历了所有这些阶段。

The DVD, as you know, was introduced in the mid-1990s

众所周知，DVD 在九十年代中期开始进入市场。

and it was quite expensive. But you can see that by 1998,

那时它还很贵。但是到了1998年，

it had fallen below 400 dollars, and 400 dollars was a psychological threshold.

它的价格跌到了400美元以下，400美元是个关键的心理价位，

And it started to take off. And you can see that the units

于是它开始腾飞了，你们可以看见产品销量

started to trend up, the hidden inflection point -- it was taking off.

呈上升趋势，这是一个潜在的转折点，从此迅速上升。

The next thing it hit, a year later, was critical mass. In this case,

一年以后，它进入下一个阶段，也就是临界量。

20 percent is often a good proxy for critical mass in a household.

通常，20% 的家庭拥有量是技术达到临界量的一个合理标志。

And what's interesting here

有趣的是

is that something else took off along with it: home-theater units.

另一个随之腾飞的是家庭影院设备

Suddenly you have a DVD in the house;

突然你家里有了DVD

you've got high-quality digital video;

你有了高质量的数字化视频图象，

you have a reason to have a big-screen television;

你也就有了购买大屏幕电视的理由

you have a reason for Dolby 5.1 surround-sound.

有了购买杜比 5.1 环绕立体声系统的理由。

And maybe you have reasons for starting to connect them,

你也有了把它们连在一起

and bring the rest of your entertainment in.

并也连接起其他娱乐设备的理由。

What's interesting also is -- note that Netflix was founded in 1999.

有趣的是，Netflix 是1999 年成立的。

Reed Hastings is here. He clearly saw that that was a moment,

Reed Hastings 今天也在这里。他当时清楚地看到了这一刻，

that was an inflection point that he could do something with.

认识到这是他可以有所作为的转折点，

The next phase it hit was displacement.

下一个阶段就是取代，

You can see around 2001 it finally out-sold the VCR.

你们可以看到，到了2001年，它的销售量超越了录像机

And here too, you can see the implications in the world at large.

从这里，你可以纵观这在全球的影响

Netflix was right -- the Netflix model could capitalize on the DVD

Netflix 是对的，Netflix 可以用一种

in a way that the video-rental stores couldn't.

录像出租店无法做到的模式来经营DVD。

Among the DVD's many assets is that it's very small;

DVD众多的特点之一就是它很小

you can stick it in the mailer and post it cheaply.

你可以把它放在信件里，很便宜地邮寄。

That gave an advantage; that was an implication

这就提供了优势；这种技术崛起的含义

of the technology's rise that wasn't obvious to everybody.

并不是那么显而易见的。

And then finally, DVDs are approaching free.

最后呢，DVD机几乎接近免费。

There's a company called Apex, a no-name Chinese firm,

有一个叫Apex的公司，一个默默无闻的中国公司。

who has, several times in the past year, been the number-one

在过去的几年里，已经好几次成了DVD

DVD seller in America. Their average price, for last year, was 48 dollars.

在美国销售的大户。去年它们的平均价格是48美元。

You're aware of the

你大概也知道

perhaps apocryphal Wal-Mart stampede

沃尔玛曾用难以置信的

over the 30-dollar DVD.

30美元的低价DVD机来吸引大促销时的狂潮。

But they're getting very, very cheap,

但是，它们的确变得非常便宜。

and look at the interesting implication of it. As they get cheaper,

结果呢，当它们变得更为便宜，

the premium brands, the Sonys and such, are losing market share,

高档的品牌，比如Sony, 就失去了市场份额，

and the no-names, the Apexes, are gaining them.

而无名的Apex们，则会获取这些市场份额。

They're being commodified, and that's what happens

它们被商品化了，这就是

when things go to zero. It's a tough market out there.

当事物触及最低点时会发生的事情。市场竞争是残酷的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now they've introduced these four ways of looking at technology,

现在，介绍了看待技术的四种方法：

these four stages of technology's life.

技术的四个发展阶段。

I'd like to talk about some other technologies out there,

我再想说一下另外一些技术，

just technologies on our radar -- and I'll use this lens,

我们一直关注的一些技术，我将用这个视角，

these four, as a way to kind of tell you

这四个发展阶段，来告诉你

where each one of those technologies is in its development.

每一种技术在发展的哪个阶段。

They're not necessarily the top-10 technologies out there --

它们不一定是最顶尖的前10种技术

they're just examples of technologies

它们只是

that are in each one of these periods.

正处于其中一种阶段的例子。

But I think that the implications of them approaching

但是我觉得琢磨它们的走向

these crossovers, these intersections, are interesting to think about.

这些十字路口，这些转折的交叉口，是很有趣味的。

Start with gene sequencing.

先从基因测序说起

As you probably know, gene sequencing -- in a large part,

如你所知，大部分的基因测序

because it's built on computers -- is falling in price

是在计算机上做的，因此价格正在

at a kind of a Moore's Law-like level.

象摩尔定义预测的那样下跌

It is now possible -- will be possible,

现在这已经是可能的 ─ 将是可能的，

and if Craig Venter indeed comes today,

如果 Craig Venter 今天来了的话

he may tell you something about this --

他会告诉你

to sequence the human genome for 40 million dollars by the end of this year.

到今年年底，只要4千万美元就可以完成人类基因排序

That's as opposed to billions just a few years ago.

在几年前，这需要几十亿。

You know, our ability to capture the tools of creation

你们知道，我们已经越来越接近

is getting closer and closer.

掌握创造天地万物的工具

What's interesting is that at the same time, the number of genes

有趣的是，我们发现的基因数量也

that we're discovering is rising very quickly.

迅速地增长

Each one of these genes has potential diagnostic test.

每一种基因都有诊断试验的潜力。

There will come a day

终有一天

when you can have hundreds of thousands of tests done, very cheaply,

当成千上万的试验可以很廉价地完成时，

if you want to know. You can learn about your own mosaic.

如果你感兴趣，你可以了解你的基因镶嵌。

Here's another technology that's approaching a critical price.

这里是另一个技术接近临界价值的例子。

This is a fascinating research from WHO that shows the effect

一个世界卫生组织令人惊喜的研究展现了

of generic drugs on anti-retroviral drug compounds and cocktails.

非专利药对治疗艾滋病的抗逆转录病毒复合药和鸡尾酒药的影响。

In January 2000, the price was 10,000 dollars, or 27 dollars a day.

2000年1月时，它的价格是1万美元，也就是27美元一天

The generics came in, first in Brazil and elsewhere,

非专利药最先是从巴西引进的，

and the effect was just dramatic on pricing.

它对价格的影响是引入注目的，

Today it's less than 50 cents a day.

今天它的价格已经是低于50美分一天。

And what's interesting is if you look at the price elasticity,

最有意思的是，如果你观察价格弹性，

if you look at the correlation between these two,

如果你观察两者的相互关系，

as the anti-retrovirals come down, the number of people you can treat

抗逆转录病药的价格下降，能够得到治疗

goes radically up. And the Clinton Foundation and WHO

的人数就急剧上升。克林顿基金会和世界卫生组织

believe that they can treat three million people worldwide by 2005 --

相信到2005年他们可以给全世界3百万人提供治疗--

two million in sub-Saharan Africa.

其中2百万在撒哈拉以南的非洲

And the falling price of drugs has a lot to do with that.

药价的降低对这起到了很大的作用。

Linux is another good example.

Linux 是另外一个例子。

Now we've switched to critical mass.

现在我们换过来讲临界量。

These are now technologies that are hitting critical mass.

有一些技术现在正即将到达临界量。

If you look here, here's Linux in red, and it's hit 20 percent.

你看这里，Linux是红色的，它到达了20%，

Interestingly, it's done a crossover before,

有趣的是，它们以前也交叉过，

but not the crossovers that matter.

但是那个交叉并不重要，

The crossover that's going to matter is the one with the blue.

重要的是和蓝线的交叉。

But you can look and see the direction those lines are going,

但是你可以看见这些曲线的走向

you can see that at the 20 percent, it's now taken seriously.

你可以看见到了20%，它就显得像模像样了。

It's not just for the geeks any more.

它不再只是奇客专用的了

That is, I imagine, what people in Redmond

我想，这就是让在Redmond的人们

wake up in the middle of the night thinking about.

半夜里辗转难眠的问题。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Another technology that we see all around us out here is hybrid cars.

另外一个在我们身边存在的技术是混合动力轿车。

I don't know whether anybody has a Prius 2004, but they're fantastic.

我不知道你们中间谁有2004年的Prius车，它们真很不错。

And if you look at the trends here, by about 2008 --

你们看看这里的趋势：到2008年，

and I don't think this is a crazy forecast --

我觉得这并不是什么疯狂的预测，

they'll be two percent of auto sales.

它们会占到汽车销售的百分之二。

Two percent isn't 20 percent, but in the car business,

百分之二虽然不是百分之二十，但是对于进程缓慢的汽车行业，

which is slow moving, that's huge; that's arrival.

这就是巨大的发展，而它正在降临。

At two percent, you start seeing them on the roads everywhere.

到达百分之二后，它们会在路上随处可见。

And what's interesting about the hybrids taking off

而关于混合动力轿车的腾飞最有意思的是

is you've now introduced electric motors to the automobile industry.

人们将电动马达引入了汽车工业。

It's the first radical change in automobile technology in 100 years.

这是100年来汽车工业技术的首要重大改变。

And once you have electric motors, you can do anything:

而有了电动马达以后，你可以做任何事情：

you can change the structure of the car in any way you want.

你可以随意地改变汽车的构造

You can have regenerative braking; you can have drive-by-wire;

你可以做再生制动，你可以做电传线控，

you can have replaceable body shapes --

你可以做可替换的车身 ─

it's a little thing that starts with a hybrid,

从混合动力轿车这一小事开始，

but it can lead to a whole new era of the car.

它会引导汽车业走向一个新的时代。

Voice Over IP is something you may have heard something about.

你也许听说过在IP网上传输话音

Again, it's kind of coming out of nowhere;

这又是一个不知从哪儿冒出来的东西，

it's a little hard to use right now.

现在还不太好用。

There's a company created by the Kazaa founders called Skype.

Kazza 的创始人建立了一个公司叫 Skype。

Look at these numbers. They launched it in August of last year;

来看一下数字，他们是去年8月启动的，

they already have nearly four million registered users --

现在已经有了4百万注册用户。

that's critical mass.

这就是临界量。

And the same thing's happening on the carrier side.

同样的事情在电讯公司也发生了

You're looking at IP taking over from some of the traditional

你可以看到IP正在取代传统的

telecom standards. This is a tipping point --

电讯标准，这是一个引爆点

if Malcolm's here, forgive me -- and it's going to change the economics,

如果 Malcom 在这里的话，请原谅我，这将会改变

and the speed, and the players in the industry.

这个行业的经济模式，速度，和玩家。

It's going to look a little bit like that.

这个看上去有点象那样的情况。

And finally, free. Free is really, really interesting.

最终，免费。免费是真的非常非常有意思。

Free is something that comes with digital, because

免费是随数字化而产生的

the reproduction costs are essentially free. It comes with IP,

因为复制的成本基本上是免费的，免费随着IP而来，

because it's such an efficient protocol. It comes with fiber optics,

因为这是一个非常有效的协议。 免费从光纤技术而来，

because there's so much bandwidth.

因为它带来了那么多的带宽。

Free is really, you know, the gift of Silicon Valley to the world.

你要知道，免费才是硅谷带给世界的礼物。

It's an economic force; it's a technical force.

这是一股经济力量，也是一股技术力量。

It's a deflationary force, if not handled right.

如果处理不当， 还会是一股通缩力量。

It is abundance, as opposed to scarcity.

这是一种丰盛而不是稀缺。

Free is probably the most interesting thing.

免费大概是最有意思的事情。

And here you have just the number of songs

这是你在一个硬盘上

that can be stored on a hard drive.

能储存的歌曲的数量。

You know, there could be a film's [unclear] there,

你知道那还可以用来存电影[此处不清]，

but it's basically, every song ever made could be stored

说到底，到2008年，这世界上所有的歌都可以被储存在

on 400 dollars worth of storage by 2008. It takes that entire element,

一个价值400美元的存储器里。所以，用来储存歌曲,

the physical element, of songs off the table.

的物理要素已经可以忽略不计了。

And you've seen the numbers.

你也看过这些数字了。

I mean, you know, the music industry is imploding

我的意思是说，整个音乐界正在垮掉，

in front of our very eyes, and Hollywood's worried as well.

就在我们眼皮底下， 好莱坞也很担心。

They're facing a force that they haven't faced before.

他们正在面临一种前所未有的压力。

And their response is draconian, and not necessarily

而他们的反映是苛刻的，但那并不能

the one that's going to get them out of this.

把他们从中解救出来。

And finally, I'll give you one last example of free --

最后，我再给你们一个免费的例子

perhaps the most powerful of all. I mentioned fiber optics --

也是最有力量的一个。我提到过光纤：

their abundance tends to make things free.

他们的繁荣会很多东西变得免费。

This is the price of a phone call to India per minute.

这是打到印度的国际长途每分钟的价格，

And what's interesting is that it was just 1990

有趣的是，这是1990年的价格，

when it was more than two dollars a minute.

那时的价格是每分钟两块多美元。

India had, still has, a regulated phone system and so did we.

印度和我们一样有常规的电话系统

It was surprisingly non-innovative, moved very slowly,

它令人吃惊地缺乏创造力，发展缓慢

but then there was just so much fiber out there,

然而因为光纤多得到处都是了

you couldn't hold back, and look how quickly the price fell.

你想不发展也不行，所以你看价格跌得非常快。

It's seven cents a minute, in many cases.

通常现在是7美分一分钟了

And the consequence of cheap phone calling, free phone calling,

而便宜电话费甚至免费电话引发的结果呢

to India, is the pissed-off programmer, is the outsourcing.

是怨气冲天的计算机程序员，是工作外包，

It is probably one of the most dramatic shifts in globalization

这大概是全球化中最戏剧性的转变，

and one of the most powerful economic tools

也是如今我们世界上最有力的

that we're seeing in our world today.

经济工具。

The force of India, and then China, and any other country

印度，中国，和任何其他国家的人

that can contact our markets

都可以联络我们的市场。

and will work with our companies -- because the communications are free --

通讯免费使得他们可以和我们的公司合作 ─ 这股影响力

is just beginning to be felt.

才刚刚被我们所知。

And I think that's probably one

而我认为，这也许就是

of the most important technology trends that we're looking at today.

我们今天应该关注的最重要的技术趋势。

Thank you.

谢谢。