Chris Anderson (Wired): Technology's Long Tail

譯者: Jenny Yang 審譯者: Grace Tung

I'd like to speak about technology trends,

我想談談科技的發展趨勢

which is something that many of you follow --

這是很多人會去關注

but we also follow, for related reasons.

我們因為相關性，所以很關注

Obviously, being a technology magazine, technology trends

顯然地，出版科技雜誌

are something that we write about and need to know about.

"科技趨勢"是我們撰寫的內容，我們需要去瞭解

But also it's part of being any monthly magazine --

但是它也像一本月刊

you live in the future. And we have a long lead-time.

你們在未來　而我們需要長時間來籌備

We have to plan issues many months in advance;

我們每一期雜誌都是幾個月前就需要準備

we have to guess at what public appetites are going to be six months,

我們需要揣測六個月以後公眾的閱讀口味

nine months down the road. So we're in the forecasting business.

甚至九個月以後的,所以我們做的是預測工作

We also, like a lot of companies, create a product

我們也和其他公司一樣，創造產品

that's based on technology trends.

是以科技趨勢為基礎的產品

In this case, ours is about ideas and information, and, if we're lucky,

在這種情況下，我們的產品是想法和訊息，如果幸運的話

some entertainment. But the concept's quite the same.

還有一些娛樂，但概念都是一樣的

And so we have to understand

所以我們需要了解

not only why tech's important, where it's going,

科技為何重要，它將往何處發展

but also, very importantly, when -- the timing is everything.

更重要的是，什麼時間點﹣時間就是一切

And it's interesting, when you look at the predictions made

有趣的是，當你回顧一些預測

during the peak of the boom in the 1990s, about e-commerce,

90年代景氣時,那些關於電子商務的分析

or Internet traffic, or broadband adoption, or Internet advertising,

或是網路流量，或是宽頻應用或是網路廣告的預言

they were all right -- they were just wrong in time.

都是正確的，只是，預測的時間點不對

Almost every one of those has come true just a few years later.

幾乎都是在幾年後預測才成真

But the difference of a few years on stock-market valuations

但幾年的差異，在股價上所造成的影響

is obviously extreme. And that's why timing is everything.

顯然是相當巨大，所以，時間點是一切

You've probably seen something like this before.

你以前可能也看過這個

This is the classic Gartner Hype Curve, which talks about

這是經典的Gartner「炒作週期」的曲線模型,它談到了

kind of the trajectory of a technology's lifespan.

技術生命週期的軌跡

And just for fun, we put a bunch of technologies on it,

為了好玩，我們在上面放了很多技術

to show whether they were kind of rising for the first high peak,

來展示它們是正往上邁向第一個頂點

or whether they were about to crash

還是往下毀滅

into the trough of disillusionment,

跌入幻滅的谷底

or rise back in the slope of enlightenment, etc.

或是回到啟示的上坡，還是...等等

And this is one way to do technology forecasting: get a sense

這是一種預測技術走勢的方法,估算一下

of where technology is and then anticipate the next upturn.

技術在哪裡，然後預測下一個轉機

We tend to do any technology that we think is sufficiently important;

我們傾向去分析我們認為足夠重要的技術

we'll typically do it twice. Once, we want to do it first.

我們通常做兩次，一次是為了搶先

We want to be the first to do it, for the geeks who appreciate that,

我們為了那些喜歡獲取這類資訊的奇客而搶先

we'll catch it right there at the technology-trigger.

我們會在技術的觸發期報導這些

You can see in 1997, we put Linux on the cover.

各位可以看到在1997我們就把Linux當成封面故事

But then it comes back. And sufficiently big technologies

但回過來，任何非常重要的技術

are going to hit the mainstream, and they're going to burst out.

都會進入主流，然後爆發

And then it's time to do it again. Last year.

所以，去年就是再做一次的好時機

And that's one way that we try to time technology trends.

這是我們試著去為技術分析時間趨勢的一種方法

I'd like to talk about a way of thinking about technology trends

我想談談我們分析科技趨勢的一種方法

that I call my "grand unified theory of predicting the future,"

我稱之為預測未來的宏大「大統一理論」

but it's closer to a petite unified theory of predicting the future.

但其實它更接近預言未來的袖珍統一理論

It's based on the presumption, the observation even,

它是基於假設，甚至是基於觀察

that all important technologies go through four stages in their life --

那就是： 所有的重要技術都經歴過四個階段

at least one of the four stages, sometimes all four of the stages.

至少四個中的一階段，有時四個都有

And at each one of these stages, can be seen as a collision --

當中的每一個階段都可以視為一次的撞擊

a collision with something else --

一次與其他事物的撞擊

for example, a critical price-line that changes both the technology

比如，一個關鍵的價格線會改變技術

and also changes its effect on the world. It's an inflection point.

也會改變它對世界的影響，這是一個轉捩點

And these are the inflection points that tell you

這些轉捩點會告訴你

what the next chapter in that technology's life is going to be,

這項技術發展的下一段篇章是什麼

and maybe how you can do something about it.

以及也許你和這些新技術有什麼相關

The first is the critical price.

首先是關鍵的價格

The first stage in a technology's advance

技術發展的第一階段就是

is that it'll fall below a critical price.

它的價格降到關鍵價格以下

After it falls below a critical price, it will tend,

當它低於關鍵價格以後，往往會

if it's successful, to rise above a critical mass, a penetration.

如果它是一種成功的技術，它就會超越臨界質量，形成突破

Many technologies, at that point, displace another technology,

很多技術在各這個時候就取代了另一個技術

and that's another important point.

這也是另外一個重點

And then finally, a lot of technologies commoditize.

最後，很多技術商品化

Towards the end of their life, they become nearly free.

接近它們生命週期的尾聲時，它們就幾乎成為免費

Each one of those is an opportunity to do something about it;

這其中， 每個階段都提供了機會給我們

it's an opportunity for the technology to change.

它是一個技術改變的機會

And even if you missed, you know, the first boom of Wi-Fi --

即便是你錯過了第一階段，比如第一波Wi-Fi 熱潮

you know, Wi-Fi did the critical price, it did the critical mass,

你知道，Wi-Fi經歷了臨界價格和臨界質量兩個階段

but hasn't done displacement yet, and hasn't done free yet --

但是它還未進入取代階段，更還没到達免费的階段 ─

there's still more opportunity in that.

所以其中還有許多機會

I'd like to demonstrate what I mean by this

我想用DVD的故事來说明

by telling the story of the DVD,

我想表達的意思

which is a technology which has done all of these.

因為這個技術已經經歷了所有這些階段

The DVD, as you know, was introduced in the mid-1990s

眾所周知，DVD 在九十年代中期開始進入市場

and it was quite expensive. But you can see that by 1998,

那時它還很貴。但是到了1998年

it had fallen below 400 dollars, and 400 dollars was a psychological threshold.

它的價格跌到了400美元以下，400美元是個關鍵的心理價位

And it started to take off. And you can see that the units

於是它開始起飛了，你們可以看見產品銷量

started to trend up, the hidden inflection point -- it was taking off.

呈上升趨勢，這是一個潛在的轉折點，從此迅速上升

The next thing it hit, a year later, was critical mass. In this case,

一年以後，它進入下一個階段，也就是臨界量

20 percent is often a good proxy for critical mass in a household.

通常，20% 的家庭擁有率是技術達到臨界量的一個合理標誌

And what's interesting here

有趣的是

is that something else took off along with it: home-theater units.

另一個隨之起飛的是家庭劇院設備

Suddenly you have a DVD in the house;

突然你家裡有了DVD

you've got high-quality digital video;

你有了高畫質的數位影片

you have a reason to have a big-screen television;

你也就有了購買大螢幕電視的理由

you have a reason for Dolby 5.1 surround-sound.

有了購買杜比5.1 環繞立體聲系統的理由

And maybe you have reasons for starting to connect them,

你也有了把它們連結在一起

and bring the rest of your entertainment in.

並也連接起其他娛樂設備的理由

What's interesting also is -- note that Netflix was founded in 1999.

有趣的是，Netflix 是1999 年成立的

Reed Hastings is here. He clearly saw that that was a moment,

Reed Hastings 今天也在這裡。他當時清楚地看到了這一刻

that was an inflection point that he could do something with.

這是一個他可以有所做為的轉折點

The next phase it hit was displacement.

下一個階段就是取代

You can see around 2001 it finally out-sold the VCR.

你们可以看到，到了2001年，它的銷售量超越了錄影機

And here too, you can see the implications in the world at large.

從這裡，你可以縱觀這在全球的影響

Netflix was right -- the Netflix model could capitalize on the DVD

Netflix 是對的，Netflix 可以用一種

in a way that the video-rental stores couldn't.

錄影帶出租店無法經營的模式來經營

Among the DVD's many assets is that it's very small;

DVD眾多特點之一就是它很小

you can stick it in the mailer and post it cheaply.

你可以把它放在信件裡，郵資便宜

That gave an advantage; that was an implication

這就是優勢，這種技術的崛起

of the technology's rise that wasn't obvious to everybody.

並不是那麼顯而易見

And then finally, DVDs are approaching free.

最後呢，DVD放映機幾乎接近免費

There's a company called Apex, a no-name Chinese firm,

有一個叫Apex的公司，一個默默無聞的中國公司

who has, several times in the past year, been the number-one

在過去的幾年裡，已經好幾次成了DVD

DVD seller in America. Their average price, for last year, was 48 dollars.

在美國銷售的大戶。去年它們的平均價格是48美元

You're aware of the

你大概也知道

perhaps apocryphal Wal-Mart stampede

沃爾瑪曾用難以置信的

over the 30-dollar DVD.

30美元的低價DVD機來吸引大促銷時的狂潮

But they're getting very, very cheap,

但是，它們的確變得非常便宜

and look at the interesting implication of it. As they get cheaper,

結果，當它變得很便宜

the premium brands, the Sonys and such, are losing market share,

高價的品牌，比如Sony, 就失去了市場占有率

and the no-names, the Apexes, are gaining them.

而沒有名的Apex們，則獲得市場

They're being commodified, and that's what happens

它們被商品化了，這就是

when things go to zero. It's a tough market out there.

當事物觸及最低點時會發生情形。市場競争是残酷的

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now they've introduced these four ways of looking at technology,

現在，介绍了看待技術的四種方法：

these four stages of technology's life.

技術的四個發展階段

I'd like to talk about some other technologies out there,

我再想說一下另外一些技術

just technologies on our radar -- and I'll use this lens,

我们一直關注的一些技術，我將用這些鏡頭

these four, as a way to kind of tell you

這四個發展階段，來告訴你

where each one of those technologies is in its development.

每一種技術在發展的哪個階段

They're not necessarily the top-10 technologies out there --

它們不一定是最頂尖的前10種技術

they're just examples of technologies

它們只是

that are in each one of these periods.

正處於其中一種階段的例子。

But I think that the implications of them approaching

但是我覺得思考它們走往

these crossovers, these intersections, are interesting to think about.

這些十字路口，這些交集後產生的影響,是很有趣的。

Start with gene sequencing.

先從基因測序談起

As you probably know, gene sequencing -- in a large part,

如你所知，大部分的基因測序

because it's built on computers -- is falling in price

是在電腦上做的，因此價格正在

at a kind of a Moore's Law-like level.

像摩爾定律預測的那樣下跌

It is now possible -- will be possible,

現在這已經是可能的 ─ 將是可能的，

and if Craig Venter indeed comes today,

如果 Craig Venter 今天能來

he may tell you something about this --

他會告訴你

to sequence the human genome for 40 million dollars by the end of this year.

到今年年底，只要4千萬美元就可以完成人類基因排序

That's as opposed to billions just a few years ago.

在幾年前，這需要幾十億

You know, our ability to capture the tools of creation

你們知道，我們已經越來越接近

is getting closer and closer.

創造天地萬物的工具

What's interesting is that at the same time, the number of genes

有趣的是，我們發現的基因数量也

that we're discovering is rising very quickly.

迅速地增長

Each one of these genes has potential diagnostic test.

每一種基因都有診斷試驗的潛力

There will come a day

终有一天

when you can have hundreds of thousands of tests done, very cheaply,

當成千上萬的試驗可以很廉價地完成時

if you want to know. You can learn about your own mosaic.

如果你感興趣，你可以了解你的基因鑲嵌

Here's another technology that's approaching a critical price.

這裡是另一個技術接近關鍵價格的例子

This is a fascinating research from WHO that shows the effect

世界衛生組織一項令人驚喜的研究展現了

of generic drugs on anti-retroviral drug compounds and cocktails.

非專利藥對治療愛滋病的抗逆轉錄病毒複合藥和雞尾酒藥的影響

In January 2000, the price was 10,000 dollars, or 27 dollars a day.

2000年1月時，它的價格是1萬美元，也就是27美元一天

The generics came in, first in Brazil and elsewhere,

非專利藥最先是從巴西引進的

and the effect was just dramatic on pricing.

它對價格的影響是引入注目的

Today it's less than 50 cents a day.

今天它的價格已經是低於 一天50分（美元）

And what's interesting is if you look at the price elasticity,

最有意思的是，如果你觀察價格彈性

if you look at the correlation between these two,

如果你觀察兩者的相互關係

as the anti-retrovirals come down, the number of people you can treat

抗逆轉錄病藥的價格下降，能夠得到治療的人數

goes radically up. And the Clinton Foundation and WHO

就急劇上升。克林頓基金會和世界衛生組織

believe that they can treat three million people worldwide by 2005 --

相信到2005年　全世界3百萬人將可獲治療

two million in sub-Saharan Africa.

其中2百萬在撒哈拉以南的非洲

And the falling price of drugs has a lot to do with that.

藥價的降低　起了很大的作用

Linux is another good example.

Linux 是另外一个例子

Now we've switched to critical mass.

現在我們換過來講臨界質量

These are now technologies that are hitting critical mass.

有一些技術現在將到達臨界質量

If you look here, here's Linux in red, and it's hit 20 percent.

你看這裡，Linux是红色的，它到達了20%，

Interestingly, it's done a crossover before,

有趣的是，它們以前也交叉過

but not the crossovers that matter.

但是那個交叉並不重要

The crossover that's going to matter is the one with the blue.

重要的是和藍線的交叉

But you can look and see the direction those lines are going,

但是你可以看見這些曲線的走向

you can see that at the 20 percent, it's now taken seriously.

你可以看見到了20%，它就顯得有模有樣

It's not just for the geeks any more.

它不再只是奇客專用的了

That is, I imagine, what people in Redmond

我想，這就是讓在Redmond的人們

wake up in the middle of the night thinking about.

半夜裡輾轉難眠的問題

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Another technology that we see all around us out here is hybrid cars.

另外一個在我們週遭存在的技術是混合動力汽車

I don't know whether anybody has a Prius 2004, but they're fantastic.

我不知道各位誰有2004年的Prius車，它們真的很不錯

And if you look at the trends here, by about 2008 --

你們看看這裡的趨勢：到2008年

and I don't think this is a crazy forecast --

我覺得這並不是什麼瘋狂的預測

they'll be two percent of auto sales.

它們會佔汽車銷售的百分之二

Two percent isn't 20 percent, but in the car business,

百分之二雖然不是百分之二十，但是對於進步緩慢的汽車行業

which is slow moving, that's huge; that's arrival.

這就是巨大的發展，而它正在來臨

At two percent, you start seeing them on the roads everywhere.

到達百分之二後，它們會在路上隨處可見

And what's interesting about the hybrids taking off

而關於混合動力汽車起飛的最有意思的是

is you've now introduced electric motors to the automobile industry.

人們將電動馬達引入了汽車工業

It's the first radical change in automobile technology in 100 years.

這是100年來汽車工業技術的首要重大改變

And once you have electric motors, you can do anything:

而有了電動馬達以後，你可以做任何事情：

you can change the structure of the car in any way you want.

你可以隨意地改變汽車的構造

You can have regenerative braking; you can have drive-by-wire;

你可以做再生制動，可以做線控驅動系統

you can have replaceable body shapes --

你可以做可替換的車身 ─

it's a little thing that starts with a hybrid,

從混合動力汽車這一小事開始

but it can lead to a whole new era of the car.

它會引導汽車業走向一個新時代

Voice Over IP is something you may have heard something about.

你也許聽說過在IP網上傳輸語音

Again, it's kind of coming out of nowhere;

這又是一個不知從哪冒出來的東西

it's a little hard to use right now.

現在還不太好用

There's a company created by the Kazaa founders called Skype.

Kazza 的創始人建立了一個公司叫 Skype

Look at these numbers. They launched it in August of last year;

看一下數字，他們是去年8月啟動的

they already have nearly four million registered users --

現在已經有了4百萬註冊用戶

that's critical mass.

這就是臨界質量

And the same thing's happening on the carrier side.

同樣的事情在電訊公司也發生了

You're looking at IP taking over from some of the traditional

你可以看到IP正在取代傳统的

telecom standards. This is a tipping point --

電訊標準，這是一個引爆點

if Malcolm's here, forgive me -- and it's going to change the economics,

如果 Malcom 在這裡的話，請原諒我，這將會改變

and the speed, and the players in the industry.

這個行業的經濟模式，速度，和玩家

It's going to look a little bit like that.

這個看上去有點像那樣的情況

And finally, free. Free is really, really interesting.

到最後，免費。免費是真的非常非常有意思

Free is something that comes with digital, because

免費是隨数位化而產生的

the reproduction costs are essentially free. It comes with IP,

因為複制的成本基本上是免費的，免費隨著IP而來

because it's such an efficient protocol. It comes with fiber optics,

因為這是一個非常有效的協議。 免費從光纖技術而來

because there's so much bandwidth.

因為它帶來了那麼多的寛頻

Free is really, you know, the gift of Silicon Valley to the world.

你要知道，免費才是矽谷帶给世界的禮物

It's an economic force; it's a technical force.

這是一股經濟力量，也是一股技術力量

It's a deflationary force, if not handled right.

如果處理不當， 還會是一股通貨緊縮壓力

It is abundance, as opposed to scarcity.

這是一種豐盛，而不是缺乏

Free is probably the most interesting thing.

免費大概是最有意思的事情

And here you have just the number of songs

這是你在一個硬碟中

that can be stored on a hard drive.

能儲存歌曲的數量

You know, there could be a film's [unclear] there,

你知道那還可以用來儲存影片[此处不清]，

but it's basically, every song ever made could be stored

基本上，到2008年，世界上所有的歌都可以被儲存在

on 400 dollars worth of storage by 2008. It takes that entire element,

一個價值400美元的儲存空間裡，所以，用來儲存歌曲的

the physical element, of songs off the table.

物質要素已經可以忽略了

And you've seen the numbers.

你也看過這些數字了

I mean, you know, the music industry is imploding

我的意思是說，整個音樂界正在垮掉，

in front of our very eyes, and Hollywood's worried as well.

就在我們眼前， 好莱塢也很擔心

They're facing a force that they haven't faced before.

他們正在面臨一種前所未有的壓力

And their response is draconian, and not necessarily

而他們的反應是嚴厲的，但那並不能

the one that's going to get them out of this.

把他們從中解救出來

And finally, I'll give you one last example of free --

最後，我再提供一個免費的例子

perhaps the most powerful of all. I mentioned fiber optics --

也是最有力量的一個，我提到過光纖：

their abundance tends to make things free.

光纖的興起會使很多事物變免費

This is the price of a phone call to India per minute.

這是打到印度的國際長途每分鐘的價格

And what's interesting is that it was just 1990

有趣的是，這是1990年的價格

when it was more than two dollars a minute.

那時的價格是每分鐘兩塊多美元。

India had, still has, a regulated phone system and so did we.

印度和我們一樣有常規的電話系统

It was surprisingly non-innovative, moved very slowly,

它令人吃驚地缺乏創造力，發展缓慢

but then there was just so much fiber out there,

然而因為光纖多得到處都是了

you couldn't hold back, and look how quickly the price fell.

你想不發展也不行，所以你看價格跌得非常快。

It's seven cents a minute, in many cases.

通常現在是一分鐘7角美元

And the consequence of cheap phone calling, free phone calling,

而便宜電話費甚至免費電話引發的结果呢

to India, is the pissed-off programmer, is the outsourcing.

對印度而言，是怨氣衝天的程式員，是工作外包，

It is probably one of the most dramatic shifts in globalization

這大概是全球化中最戲劇性的轉變

and one of the most powerful economic tools

也是如今我們世界上最有力的

that we're seeing in our world today.

經濟工具

The force of India, and then China, and any other country

印度，中國，和任何其他國家的人

that can contact our markets

都可以聯絡我們的市場

and will work with our companies -- because the communications are free --

通訊免費使他們可以和我們的公司合作 ─ 這股影響力

is just beginning to be felt.

才剛剛被我們所知

And I think that's probably one

而我認為，這也許就是

of the most important technology trends that we're looking at today.

我們今天應該關注的最重要的技術趨勢

Thank you.

謝謝