How the US should use its superpower status | Ian Bremmer

翻译人员: JiYuan Zhang 校对人员: Diana Li

When you come to TEDx, you always think about technology,

各位来参加TED的演讲， 心中想的大都是科技议题，

the world changing, becoming more innovative.

世界正在改变，变的更有创造力了。

You think about the driverless.

各位可能会想到无人驾驶。

Everyone's talking about driverless cars these days,

现在每个人都在讨论 无人驾驶汽车，

and I love the concept of a driverless car,

我也喜欢无人驾驶汽车的概念，

但是说实话，当我坐进去时，

but when I go in one, you know,

I want it really slow,

我真的希望它开慢一点，

I want access to the steering wheel and the brake, just in case.

我希望在发生意外的时候， 我能亲自操控方向盘和刹车。

I don't know about you, but I am not ready for a driverless bus.

我不知道在座的各位是怎么想的， 至少我还没有准备好登上无人驾驶公交车。

I am not ready for a driverless airplane.

我也还没有准备好 要乘坐无人驾驶的飞机。

How about a driverless world?

那么，一个无人领导的世界会是怎样呢？

我会这样问的原因，

And I ask you that

because we are increasingly in one.

是因为我们都正逐渐融为一体。

It's not supposed to be that way.

本来事情不应该是这样的。

We're number one,

我们是全球第一的国家，

the United States is large and in charge.

我们美国说一不二。

Americanization and globalization for the last several generations

对于近年来的几代人而言，

美国化和全球化基本上 谈的都是同一件事，对吧？

have basically been the same thing.

Right? Whether it's the World Trade Organization

不论是WTO

or it's the IMF, the World Bank,

亦或是IMF、世界银行、

the Bretton Woods Accord on currency,

布莱顿森林货币协定、

它们都是美国的机构，

these were American institutions,

our values, our friends, our allies, our money, our standards.

我们的价值观、朋友、 同盟、货币、标准等。

That was the way the world worked.

这就是这个世界运行的方式。

So it's sort of interesting, if you want to look at how the US looks,

开玩笑说，如果你想知道 美国看起来是什么样的，

here it is.

那么这张图就是了。

This is our view of how the world is run.

这就是我们美国人 对于世界如何运转的印象，

President Obama has got the red carpet,

奥巴马总统脚踏红地毯

he goes down Air Force One,

走下空军一号，

and it feels pretty good, it feels pretty comfortable.

这看起来很美妙，让人感觉很舒服。

我不知道你们有多少人看过 上周总统的中国之行

Well, I don't know how many of you saw the China trip last week

and the G20.

与G20峰会的报导，

Oh my God. Right?

天啊，

This is how we landed

在中国举办的全球峰会，

for the most important meeting of the world's leaders in China.

这么重要的场合， 这就是我们总统着陆的方式？

国家安全顾问站在柏油路面上

The National Security Advisor was actually spewing expletives

咒骂着——

on the tarmac --

总统没有红地毯铺路，

no red carpet,

kind of left out the bottom of the plane

就直接从飞机上下来，

还和媒体还有其他人混在一起！

along with all the media and everybody else.

Later on in the G20,

在稍后的G20会议中……

well, there's Obama.

好吧，这是奥巴马总统

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Hi, George.

“你好，乔治”

Hi, Norman.

“你好，诺曼”

They look like they're about to get into a cage match, right?

他们看起好像马上就要打架了，是不是？

And they did. It was 90 minutes long, and they talked about Syria.

的确，他们花了90分钟 讨论叙利亚的问题。

That's what Putin wanted to talk about.

这也是普京想要讨论的，

He's increasingly calling the shots.

他超想开战的，

He's the one willing to do stuff there.

他想成为历史人物。

There's not a lot of mutual like or trust,

实际上他们并不互相喜欢或信任，

but it's not as if the Americans are telling him what to do.

也不是我们美国喜欢对他指手画脚。

How about when the whole 20 are getting together?

那么全部20国在一起的时候 又是什么样的？

诚然，当所有领导聚在一起

Surely, when the leaders are all onstage,

美国人就会仔细观察他们的互动了。

then the Americans are pulling their weight.

Uh-oh.

噢哦。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Xi Jinping seems fine.

习近平看起来气色不错，

Angela Merkel has -- she always does --

安格拉·默克尔还是老样子，

that look, she always does that.

她一直看起来就那样。

But Putin is telling Turkish president Erdogan what to do,

但是普京正在跟土耳其总统 埃尔多安交头接耳，

and Obama is like, what's going on over there?

奥巴马看起来就像是在想， 他们两个是不是又要搞事了？

You see. And the problem is it's not a G20,

你看，问题不在G20，

the problem is

真正的问题是

it's a G-Zero world that we live in,

我们生活在一个G0的世界中，

a world order where there is no single country or alliance

一个没有任何一个单独的国家或联盟

that can meet the challenges of global leadership.

可以担起领导全球重任的世界。

The G20 doesn't work,

G20并没有什么实际用处，

the G7, all of our friends, that's history.

由我们的盟友组成的G7 也成为历史了。

但全球化仍在不断继续，

So globalization is continuing.

Goods and services and people and capital are moving across borders

商品、服务、人员和资本 也在不断跨境流动，

流动的越来越快，远超从前，

faster and faster than ever before,

但美国化并不是这样。

but Americanization is not.

So if I've convinced you of that,

所以如果你也接受上述论点，

I want to do two things with the rest of this talk.

那么我在剩下的 演讲时间中做两件事。

I want to talk about the implications of that

一是我想和各位谈谈

for the whole world.

各地全球化的进展。

我会围绕这个主题讨论。

I'll go around it.

And then I want to talk about

然后我会再进一步​​讨论

what we think right here

身处在美国及纽约的我们是怎么想的。

in the United States and in New York.

So why? What are the implications. Why are we here?

为什么？这又有什么影响？ 我们今天为什么会卡在这里？

Well, we're here

我们会卡在这里，

是因为美国

because the United States,

we spent two trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

花费两万亿美元去打 伊拉克和阿富汗的战争，

that were failed.

然后我们失败了。

We don't want to do that anymore.

我们再也不想做这样的事情了，

我们有大量的中产和工人阶级国民，

We have large numbers of middle and working classes

that feel like they've not benefited from promises of globalization,

但他们并没有感觉到承诺中的 全球化所带来的好处。

so they don't want to see it particularly.

尤其他们更不想再看到战争。

And we have an energy revolution

同时我们还在进行能源革命，

where we don't need OPEC or the Middle East the way we used to.

这使我们不再像往常那样 依赖OPEC和中东的石油。

We produce all that right here in the United States.

让我们能自给自足。

所以美国不想 再做全球安全的护航者。

So the Americans don't want to be the global sheriff for security

or the architect of global trade.

或者环球经贸的设计师。

The Americans don't want to even be the cheerleader of global values.

美国人甚至不想去当全球价值观的倡导者。

好吧，你再去看欧洲——

Well, then you look to Europe,

and the most important alliance in the world

我们在大西洋对岸的

has been the transatlantic relationship.

最重要的盟友。

But it is now weaker than it has been at any point since World War II,

它自二战以来正每况愈下，危机频发：

英国脱欧，

all of the crises, the Brexit conversations,

the hedging going on between the French and the Russians,

法俄冲突，

or the Germans and the Turks, or the Brits and the Chinese.

还有德国-土耳其冲突和英中之间的不愉快。

中国的确想更进一步的领导全球，

China does want to do more leadership.

They do, but only in the economic sphere,

他们真的有在想， 但只想在经济领域上。

中国更加希望的是， 自己的价值观、标准和货币，

and they want their own values, standards, currency,

能够与美国竞争。

in competition with that of the US.

The Russians want to do more leadership.

俄罗斯确实想更有领袖地位。

You see that in Ukraine,

看看他们在乌克兰

in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,

以及波罗的海诸国还有中东所做的。

但那些都和美国无关，

but not with the Americans.

They want their own preferences and order.

他们想独树一帜，独掌大权。

That's why we are where we are.

这就是为什么我们卡在这里。

So what happens going forward?

所以接下来世界会发生什么？

Let's start easy,

我们先从简单的开始讨论，

with the Middle East.

就从中东开始吧。

（笑声）

(Laughter)

You know, I left a little out,

你们知道的，我只是点拨一下，

but you get the general idea.

但你们会不约而同地想到中东的稳定问题。

Look, there are three reasons

你看，有三个原因，

说明了中东过去 曾经稳定的原因，是不是？

why the Middle East has had stability such as it is. Right?

一是他们当时愿意，

One is because there was a willingness to provide

some level of military security by the US and allies.

让美国及其盟友 提供一定程度的军事安全保障。

Number two, it was easy to take a lot of cheap money out of the ground

第二，中东遍地黄金，

because oil was expensive.

因为石油曾相当昂贵。

第三点：

And number three

was no matter how bad the leaders were, the populations were relatively quiescent.

不论中东的领导人是多么差劲， 当地人口数量却相对稳定。

They didn't have the ability, and many didn't have the will

他们不能、也不想，

to really rise up against.

互相敌对。

Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world,

但，对于一个G0的世界，我可以说：

all three of those things are increasingly not true,

这三个理由正逐渐失效。

所以失败国家、恐怖主义、

and so failed states,

terrorism, refugees and the rest.

难民还有其他事故开始出现。

Does the entire Middle East fall apart?

然而整个中东四分五裂了么？

No, the Kurds will do better, and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.

并不，库尔德人做的更好一些， 伊拉克，以色列，伊朗也会逐渐好起来。

But generally speaking, it's not a good look.

但总体上说，中东依旧不是很好。

OK, how about this guy?

好，那普京这家伙如何呢？

He's playing a poor hand very well.

他简直一塌糊涂。

There's no question he's hitting above his weight.

毫无疑问他好高骛远。

But long term -- I didn't mean that.

但长期——我不是有意要这么说

But long term, long term,

——从长期而言，

if you think that the Russians

如果你认为俄罗斯是被 美国和欧盟所挑衅，

were antagonized by the US and Europe expanding NATO right up to their borders

让北约组织扩军到 他们的国界附近。

when we said they weren't going to,

当时我们说他们不会这样做。

and the EU encroaching them,

且有欧盟在蚕食他们，

just wait until the Chinese put hundreds of billions of dollars

只要等中国花数千亿美元，

投入到俄罗斯周边 他们认为拥有影响力的国家，

in every country around Russia they thought they had influence in.

The Chinese are going to dominate it. The Russians are picking up the crumbs.

中国就能从中获益 而俄罗斯只能捡剩下的。

在这个G0的世界中 普京先生未来10年会非常难熬。

In a G-Zero world, this is going to be a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.

这还是有点好的，对么？

It's not all bad. Right?

Asia actually looks a lot better.

亚洲看起来更好一点，

那里有真正的领导者，

There are real leaders across Asia,

they have a lot of political stability.

那边有着相当的政治稳定，

They're there for a while.

而且保持了一段时间。

Mr. Modi in India,

印度的莫迪总理、

安倍晋三，可能要取得第三个任期的 日本自由民主党党魁、

Mr. Abe, who is probably about to get a third term written in

in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan,

当然还有习近平—— 他正在巩固自己的权利，

of course Xi Jinping who is consolidating enormous power,

the most powerful leader in China

他是自毛泽东以来

since Mao.

最具影响力的中国领导人。

Those are the three most important economies in Asia.

他们领导着三个最重要的亚洲经济体。

Now look, there are problems in Asia.

但是现在，亚洲也没法独善其身：

We see the sparring over the South China Sea.

我们可以看到南海冲突频发，

可以看到朝鲜的金正日在几天前

We see that Kim Jong Un, just in the last couple of days,

tested yet another nuclear weapon.

又一次测试了新核武器。

但是这些亚洲领导人认为，

But the leaders in Asia do not feel the need

to wave the flag,

他们无需发挥领导力

to go xenophobic,

去排除外部势力，

to actually allow escalation

他们坐视事态扩大。

of the geopolitical and cross-border tensions.

在面对跨国政治和边境冲突的时候，

They want to focus on long-term economic stability and growth.

他们着眼于长期经济稳定与增长，

And that's what they're actually doing.

而这也正是他们正在做的。

Let's turn to Europe.

转到欧洲。

Europe does look a little scared in this environment.

欧洲看起来似乎被 现在的国际环境吓到了，

So much of what is happening in the Middle East

所以那些发生在中东的事情，

is washing up quite literally onto European shores.

毫不夸张地说， 已经波及到了欧洲边境。

你们可以看到欧洲人对英国脱欧 还有民粹主义的关注

You see Brexit and you see the concerns of populism

across all of the European states.

已经遍及了欧洲全境。

Let me tell you that over the long term,

要我说，长期而言，

在G0的世界中，

in a G-Zero world,

European expansion will be seen to have gone too far.

欧洲的扩张太快了。

Europe went right up to Russia, went right down to the Middle East,

欧洲现在十分靠近俄罗斯和中东，

and if the world were truly becoming more flat and more Americanized,

如果这个世界真的变的 更加扁平化及美国化，

that would be less of a problem,

这不值一提。

but in a G-Zero world, those countries nearest Russia

但对于G0的世界来说，

那些紧邻俄罗斯和中东的国家，

and nearest the Middle East

actually have different economic capabilities,

他们实际上与欧洲核心 有着不同的经济体量、

different social stability

不同的社会稳定因素、

and different political preferences and systems than core Europe.

以及不同的政治观点与系统。

So Europe was able to truly expand

所以欧盟确实可以在 G7的帮助下进行扩张，

under the G7,

but under the G-Zero, Europe will get smaller.

但是对于G0，欧洲会重新缩小。

Core Europe around Germany and France and others

围绕着德法的欧洲核心国家，

will still work, be functional, stable, wealthy, integrated.

能依旧正常运行， 依旧稳定、富裕、互相补益。

But the periphery,

但那些周边国家，

就像希腊、土耳其还有其他的一些，

countries like Greece and Turkey and others,

will not look that good at all.

可能就会很糟糕了。

Latin America, a lot of populism,

拉丁美洲，民粹主义的乐园，

made the economies not go so well.

经济被搞得差强人意。

They had been more opposed to the United States for decades.

几十年间他们都对美国阳奉阴违，

Increasingly, they're coming back.

但是现在，他们逐渐地靠拢回来了。

We see that in Argentina.

我们可以看到阿根廷的变化、

看到古巴的开放、

We see it with the openness in Cuba.

We will see it in Venezuela when Maduro falls.

看到委内瑞拉的马杜罗下台、

看到发生在巴西的弹劾、

We will see it in Brazil after the impeachment

and when we finally see a new legitimate president elected there.

并最终看到一个新的合法总统当选。

The only place you see that is moving in another direction

唯一顽固不化的地方，

is the unpopularity of Mexican president Peña Nieto.

是墨西哥，总统佩尼亚·尼托正失去民意。

There you could actually see a slip away from the United States

在接下来的几年中， 你将看到他们逐渐背弃美国。

over the coming years.

The US election matters a lot on that one, too.

尽管美国大选 会对那里会产生巨大的影响。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Africa, right?

非洲，

A lot of people have said it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.

很多人说接下来十年是非洲的十年。

In a G-Zero world, it is absolutely an amazing time

在这个G0的世界中， 对少数非洲国家而言，

for a few African countries,

这无疑会是一个令人惊奇的时代。

那些“少数国家”施政良好、 同时城市化进程较快，

those governed well with a lot of urbanization,

a lot of smart people, women really getting into the workforce,

还有大量富有智慧的国民， 那里妇女真正地有活可干，

entrepreneurship taking off.

创业也蓬勃兴起。

But for most of the countries in Africa,

但对于大多数非洲国家，

这无疑是场冒险：

it's going to be a lot more dicey:

extreme climate conditions,

他们要面对极端气候环境、

radicalism both from Islam and also Christianity,

来自伊斯兰教和基督教的激进主义、

very poor governance,

乏善可陈的统治、

borders you can't defend, lots of forced migration.

无法御敌于国门之外、 甚至大量强行吞并……

Those countries can fall off the map.

那些国家可能从地图上消失。

So you're really going to see an extreme segregation going on

所以你将会看到巨大的隔阂逐渐产生，

between the winners and the losers across Africa.

它横贯于非洲的胜利者与失败者之间。

Finally, back to the United States.

最后，让我们回归美国。

What do I think about us?

我们怎么看自己的国家的？

Because there are a lot of upset people,

这里有大量对政治失望的人，

not here at TEDx, I know,

当然我知道不会出现在这个TEDx会场里。

but in the United States, my God,

但是他们遍布美国，天啊，

after 15 months of campaigning, we should be upset.

在15个月的竞选长跑后 我们会变的失望，

I understand that.

我能理解这个心情。

But a lot of people are upset because they say, "Washington's broken,

但是很多人失望地说： “华盛顿变差了”，

we don't trust the establishment, we hate the media."

“我们不相信当权者”， “我们痛恨媒体”，

哎，像我这样的全球主义者，

Heck, even globalists like me are taking it on the chin.

都会把这些话挂在嘴边。

注意！我认为我们必须认清，

Look, I do think we have to recognize,

my fellow campers,

我们与和我们一同野营的国家伙伴们，

当一同被某头危机巨熊追逐着的时候，

that when you are being chased by the bear,

in the global context, you need not outrun the bear,

我们不需要跑过那头巨熊，

you need to only outrun your fellow campers.

只需要跑过那些伙伴， 让他们成为被吃掉的就好了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now, I just told you

现在，我刚刚跟你们分析过，

about our fellow campers.

我们那些伙伴的糟糕情况。

不是么？从这个角度来看，

Right? And from that perspective,

we look OK.

我们做的可圈可点。

很多人在现在都说，

A lot of people in that context say,

“我们去赚得美元”， “我们去纽约买房”，

"Let's go dollar. Let's go New York real estate.

Let's send our kids to American universities."

“我们去把我们的孩子送进美国的大学”，

You know, our neighbors are awesome:

众所周知，我们的邻居都很出色：

Canada, Mexico and two big bodies of water.

加拿大，墨西哥，还有两滩海水。

You know how much Turkey would love to have neighbors like that?

你们知不知道土耳其做梦都想 拥有这样的邻居？

他们确实都是好邻居！

Those are awesome neighbors.

Terrorism is a problem in the United States.

在美国，恐怖主义确实是个问题，

God knows we know it here in New York.

任谁都知道身处纽约的我们知道这些。

但对于欧洲而言这更是一个问题。

But it's a much bigger problem in Europe than the US.

It's a much bigger problem in the Middle East

和欧洲比起来，

than it is in Europe.

中东问题更大了。

These are factors of large magnitude.

这其中有大尺度的因素，

We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees, and we're complaining bitterly about it.

我们刚刚接受了一万名叙利亚难民， 而且我们对此抱怨不断。

You know why? Because they can't swim here.

知道为什么么？ 因为他们没有办法游到这里。

Right? I mean, the Turks would love to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.

对么？我的意思是，土耳其会很乐于看见 他们只需接收一万名难民，

The Jordanians, the Germans, the Brits. Right?

对于约旦人、德国人 和英国人也是，不是么？

That's not the situation.

这不是假设，

That's the reality of the United States.

美国现在就是这样。

现在，一切似乎都很好。

Now, that sounds pretty good.

Here's the challenge.

那么接下来就轮到挑战了。

In a G-Zero world, the way you lead

在这个G0的世界中， 你要领导世界的方式，

is by example.

就是要当楷模。

If we know we don't want to be the global cop anymore,

如果我们知道，我们不想再 担任世界警察角色，

if we know we're not going to be the architect of global trade,

不会再担任全球贸易的建筑师，

we're not going to be the cheerleader of global values,

那我们会失去担任价值观引领者的角色。

we're not going to do it the way we used to,

我们的行事作风要变一变了。

21世纪正在改变，

the 21st century is changing,

we need to lead by example -- be so compelling

我们需要担起楷模 ——那是多么多令人向往。

that all these other people are going to still say,

其他国人都仍将引以为豪，

it's not just they're faster campers.

并不是因为他们跑的快，

Even when the bear is not chasing us, this is a good place to be.

即使巨熊不再追着我们， 这里仍是个好地方，

We want to emulate them.

我们想要效仿他们。

The election process this year is not proving a good option

今年的选举， 并没有一个很好的候选人

能够引领美国。

for leading by example.

Hillary Clinton says it's going to be like the '90s.

希拉里·克林顿说 美国会像90年代那样，

我们依旧会是价值观引领者，

We can still be that cheerleader on values.

我们依旧会是是全球贸易的建筑师，

We can still be the architect of global trade.

We can still be the global sheriff.

我们依旧会是世界警察。

And Donald Trump wants to bring us back to the '30s.

而唐纳德·特朗普想把我们带回30年代，

He's saying, "Our way or the highway. You don't like it, lump it." Right?

他说：“我们的路或者高速公路。 你不高兴也得忍耐”，不是么？

Neither are recognizing a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,

他们两个都没有认清 G0世界的根本真理，

which is that even though the US is not in decline,

这真理就算美国也没有否认：

it is getting objectively harder

客观而言一切正变得更加困难，

for the Americans to impose their will,

不论是对外施加意志

even have great influence,

还是在世界秩序上取得更大的影响力。

on the global order.

Are we prepared to truly lead by example?

我们真的有做好 用模范引领世界的准备了么？

What would we have to do to fix this

我们应该如何去修正这些错误？

after November,

在11月大选之后？

after the next president comes in?

在新一任总统进入白宫之后？

Well, either we have to have another crisis that forces us to respond.

我们必须面对另一个危机 来迫使我们作出反应。

A depression would do that.

一场全民批驳总统的大失望可以做到，

或者再一次的全球金融危机也行，

Another global financial crisis could do this.

God forbid, another 9/11 could do that.

求上帝原谅， 再来一次9.11事件也可以。

Or, absent crisis,

或者，如果没有危机发生，

we need to see that the hollowing out, the inequality, the challenges

我们需要认清空洞化、 不平等以及新的挑战

that are growing and growing in the United States,

正逐渐在美国生根发芽。

are themselves urgent enough

我们有足够的紧迫感吗？

to force our leaders to change,

足够到迫使我们的领导人去改变。

and that we have those voices.

民意的声音可以迫使他们改变，

Through our cell phones, individually,

通过我们每个人的电话，

we have those voices to compel them to change.

我们用自己的声音 去强迫他们改变。

There is, of course, a third choice,

当然，还有第三种选择，

perhaps the most likely one,

也是最有可能的选择。

which is that we do neither of those things,

而那个选择就是 我们什么都不做，

and in four years time you invite me back,

四年后你们再度邀我过来，

and I will give this speech yet again.

然后我再念一遍稿子。

Thank you very, very much.

谢谢，非常感谢！

(Applause)

（掌声）