How the US should use its superpower status | Ian Bremmer

譯者: JiYuan Zhang

When you come to TEDx, you always think about technology,

各位來參加TED的演講， 心中想的大都是科技議題，

the world changing, becoming more innovative.

世界正在改變，變的更有創造力了。

You think about the driverless.

各位可能會想到無人駕駛。

Everyone's talking about driverless cars these days,

現在每個人都在討論 無人駕駛汽車，

and I love the concept of a driverless car,

我也喜歡無人駕駛汽車的概念，

但是說實話，當我走進去時，

but when I go in one, you know,

I want it really slow,

我真的希望它開慢一點，

I want access to the steering wheel and the brake, just in case.

我希望在發生意外的時候， 我能親自操控方向盤和刹車。

I don't know about you, but I am not ready for a driverless bus.

我不知道在座的各位是怎麼想的， 至少我還沒有準備好登上無人駕駛巴士。

I am not ready for a driverless airplane.

我也還沒有準備好 要乘坐無人駕駛的飛機。

How about a driverless world?

那麼，一個無人領導的世界會是怎樣呢？

我會這樣問的原因，

And I ask you that

because we are increasingly in one.

是因為我們都正逐漸融為一體。

It's not supposed to be that way.

本來事情不應該是這樣的。

We're number one,

我們是全球第一的國家，

the United States is large and in charge.

我們美國喊水能結凍。

Americanization and globalization for the last several generations

對於近年來的幾代人而言，

美國化和全球化基本上 談的都是同一件事，對吧？

have basically been the same thing.

Right? Whether it's the World Trade Organization

不論是WTO

or it's the IMF, the World Bank,

亦或是IMF、世界銀行、

the Bretton Woods Accord on currency,

布列敦森林的貨幣協定、

它們都是美國的機構，

these were American institutions,

our values, our friends, our allies, our money, our standards.

我們的價值評斷、朋友、 同盟、貨幣、標準等

That was the way the world worked.

這就是這個世界運行的方式。

So it's sort of interesting, if you want to look at how the US looks,

開玩笑說，如果你想知道 美國看起來是什麼樣的，

here it is.

那麼這張圖就是了。

This is our view of how the world is run.

這就是我們美國人 對於世界如何運轉的印象，

President Obama has got the red carpet,

奧巴馬總統踩著紅地毯

he goes down Air Force One,

走下空軍一號，

and it feels pretty good, it feels pretty comfortable.

這看起來很美妙，讓人感覺很舒服。

我不知道你們有多少人看過 上周總統的中國之行

Well, I don't know how many of you saw the China trip last week

and the G20.

與G20峰會的報導，

Oh my God. Right?

天啊，

This is how we landed

在中國舉辦的全球峰會，

for the most important meeting of the world's leaders in China.

這麼重要的場合， 這就是我們總統著陸的方式？

國家安全顧問站在柏油路面上

The National Security Advisor was actually spewing expletives

直接開飆——

on the tarmac --

總統沒有紅地毯鋪路，

no red carpet,

kind of left out the bottom of the plane

就直接從飛機上下來，

還和媒體還有其他人混在一起！

along with all the media and everybody else.

Later on in the G20,

在稍後的G20會議中……

well, there's Obama.

好吧，這是奧巴馬總統

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Hi, George.

「你好，喬治 」

Hi, Norman.

「你好，諾曼 」

They look like they're about to get into a cage match, right?

他們看起好像馬上就要對幹了，是不是？

And they did. It was 90 minutes long, and they talked about Syria.

的確，他們花了90分鐘 討論敘利亞的問題。

That's what Putin wanted to talk about.

這也是普京想要討論的，

He's increasingly calling the shots.

他超想開戰的，

He's the one willing to do stuff there.

他想成為歷史人物。

There's not a lot of mutual like or trust,

實際上他們並不互相喜歡或信任，

but it's not as if the Americans are telling him what to do.

也不是我們美國喜歡對他指手畫腳。

How about when the whole 20 are getting together?

那麼全部20國在一起的時候 又是什麼樣的？

誠然，當所有領導聚在一起

Surely, when the leaders are all onstage,

美國人就會仔細觀察他們的互動了。

then the Americans are pulling their weight.

Uh-oh.

噢哦

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Xi Jinping seems fine.

習近平看起來氣色不錯，

Angela Merkel has -- she always does --

安格拉·默克爾還是老樣子，

that look, she always does that.

她一直看起來就那樣。

But Putin is telling Turkish president Erdogan what to do,

但是普京正在跟土耳其總統 埃爾多安交頭接耳，

and Obama is like, what's going on over there?

奧巴馬看起來就像是在想， 他們兩個是不是準備要亂搞了？

You see. And the problem is it's not a G20,

你看，問題不在G20，

the problem is

真正的問題是

it's a G-Zero world that we live in,

我們生活在一個G0的世界中，

a world order where there is no single country or alliance

一個沒有任何一個單獨的國家或聯盟

that can meet the challenges of global leadership.

可以擔起領導全球重任的世界。

The G20 doesn't work,

G20並沒有什麼實際用處，

the G7, all of our friends, that's history.

由我們的盟友組成的G7 也成為歷史了。

但全球化仍在不斷繼續，

So globalization is continuing.

Goods and services and people and capital are moving across borders

商品、服務、人員和資本 也在不斷跨境流動，

流動的越來越快，遠超從前，

faster and faster than ever before,

但美國化並不是這樣。

but Americanization is not.

So if I've convinced you of that,

所以如果你也接受上述論點，

I want to do two things with the rest of this talk.

那麼我在剩下的 演講時間中做兩件事。

I want to talk about the implications of that

一是我想和各位談談

for the whole world.

各地全球化的進展。

我會圍繞這個主題討論。

I'll go around it.

And then I want to talk about

然後我會再進一步討論

what we think right here

身處在美國及紐約的我們是怎麼想的。

in the United States and in New York.

So why? What are the implications. Why are we here?

為什麼？這又有什麼影響？ 我們今天為什麼會卡在這裡？

Well, we're here

我們會卡在這裡，

是因為美國

because the United States,

we spent two trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

花費兩萬億美元去打 伊拉克和阿富汗的戰爭，

that were failed.

然後我們失敗了。

We don't want to do that anymore.

我們再也不想做這樣的事情了，

我們有大量的中產和工人階級國民，

We have large numbers of middle and working classes

that feel like they've not benefited from promises of globalization,

但他們並沒有感覺到承諾中的 全球化所帶來的好處。

so they don't want to see it particularly.

尤其他們更不想再看到戰爭。

And we have an energy revolution

同時我們還在進行能源革命，

where we don't need OPEC or the Middle East the way we used to.

這使我們不再像往常那樣 依賴OPEC和中東的石油。

We produce all that right here in the United States.

讓我們能自給自足。

所以美國不想 再做全球安全的護航者。

So the Americans don't want to be the global sheriff for security

or the architect of global trade.

或者國際貿易的設計師。

The Americans don't want to even be the cheerleader of global values.

美國人甚至不想去當全球價值觀的宣導者。

好吧，你再去看歐洲——

Well, then you look to Europe,

and the most important alliance in the world

我們在大西洋對岸的，

has been the transatlantic relationship.

最重要的盟友。

But it is now weaker than it has been at any point since World War II,

它自二戰以來正每況愈下，危機頻發：

英國脫歐，

all of the crises, the Brexit conversations,

the hedging going on between the French and the Russians,

法俄衝突，

or the Germans and the Turks, or the Brits and the Chinese.

還有德國-土耳其衝突和英中之間的不愉快。

中國的確想更進一步的領導全球，

China does want to do more leadership.

They do, but only in the economic sphere,

他們真的有在想， 但只想在經濟領域上。

中國更加希望的是， 自己的價值觀、標準和貨幣，

and they want their own values, standards, currency,

能夠與美國競爭。

in competition with that of the US.

The Russians want to do more leadership.

俄羅斯確實想更有領袖地位。

You see that in Ukraine,

看看他們在烏克蘭

in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,

以及波羅的海諸國還有中東所做的。

但那些都和美國無關，

but not with the Americans.

They want their own preferences and order.

他們想獨樹一幟，獨掌大權。

That's why we are where we are.

這就是為什麼我們卡在這裡。

So what happens going forward?

所以接下來世界會發生什麼？

Let's start easy,

我們先從簡單的開始討論，

with the Middle East.

就從中東開始吧。

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

You know, I left a little out,

你們知道的，我只是點撥一下，

but you get the general idea.

但你們會不約而同地想到中東的穩定問題。

Look, there are three reasons

你看，有三個原因，

說明了中東過去 曾經穩定的原因，是不是？

why the Middle East has had stability such as it is. Right?

一是他們當時願意，

One is because there was a willingness to provide

some level of military security by the US and allies.

讓美國及其盟友 提供一定程度的軍事安全保障。

Number two, it was easy to take a lot of cheap money out of the ground

第二，中東遍地黃金，

because oil was expensive.

因為石油曾相當昂貴。

第三點：

And number three

was no matter how bad the leaders were, the populations were relatively quiescent.

不論中東的領導人是多麼差勁， 當地人口數量卻相對穩定。

They didn't have the ability, and many didn't have the will

他們不能、也不想，

to really rise up against.

互相敵對。

Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world,

但，對於一個G0的世界，我可以說：

all three of those things are increasingly not true,

這三個理由正逐漸失效。

所以失敗的國家、恐怖主義、

and so failed states,

terrorism, refugees and the rest.

難民還有其他事故開始出現。

Does the entire Middle East fall apart?

然而整個中東四分五裂了麼？

No, the Kurds will do better, and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.

並不，庫爾德人做得更好一些， 伊拉克、以色列、伊朗也會逐漸好起來。

But generally speaking, it's not a good look.

但總體上說，中東依舊不是很好。

OK, how about this guy?

好，那普京這傢伙如何呢？

He's playing a poor hand very well.

他簡直一塌糊塗。

There's no question he's hitting above his weight.

毫無疑問他好高騖遠。

But long term -- I didn't mean that.

但長期——我不是有意要這麼說

But long term, long term,

——從長期而言，

if you think that the Russians

如果你認為俄羅斯是被 美國和歐盟所挑倖，

were antagonized by the US and Europe expanding NATO right up to their borders

讓北約組織擴軍到 他們的國界附近。

when we said they weren't going to,

當時我們說他們不會這樣做。

and the EU encroaching them,

且有歐盟在蠶食他們，

just wait until the Chinese put hundreds of billions of dollars

只要等中國花數千億美元，

投入到俄羅斯周邊 他們認為擁有影響力的國家，

in every country around Russia they thought they had influence in.

The Chinese are going to dominate it. The Russians are picking up the crumbs.

中國就能從中獲益 而俄羅斯只能撿剩下的。

在這個G0的世界中 普京先生未來10年會非常難熬。

In a G-Zero world, this is going to be a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.

這還是有點好的，對麼？

It's not all bad. Right?

Asia actually looks a lot better.

亞洲看起來更好一點，

那裡有真正的領導者，

There are real leaders across Asia,

they have a lot of political stability.

那邊有著相當的政治穩定，

They're there for a while.

而且保持了一段時間。

Mr. Modi in India,

印度的莫迪總理、

Mr. Abe, who is probably about to get a third term written in

安倍晉三，可能要取得第三個任期的 日本自由民主黨黨魁、

in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan,

當然還有習近平—— 他正在鞏固自己的權力，

of course Xi Jinping who is consolidating enormous power,

the most powerful leader in China

他是自毛澤東以來最具影響力的，

since Mao.

中國領導人

Those are the three most important economies in Asia.

——他們領導著三個最重要的亞洲經濟體。

Now look, there are problems in Asia.

但是現在，亞洲也沒法獨善其身：

We see the sparring over the South China Sea.

我們可以看到南海衝突頻發，

可以看到北韓的金正日在幾天前

We see that Kim Jong Un, just in the last couple of days,

tested yet another nuclear weapon.

又一次測試了新核武器。

但是這些亞洲領導人認為，

But the leaders in Asia do not feel the need

他們無需發揮領導力

to wave the flag,

to go xenophobic,

去排除外部勢力，

to actually allow escalation

他們坐視事態擴大。

of the geopolitical and cross-border tensions.

在面對跨國政治和邊境衝突的時候，

They want to focus on long-term economic stability and growth.

他們著眼於長期經濟穩定與增長，

And that's what they're actually doing.

而這也正是他們正在做的。

Let's turn to Europe.

轉到歐洲。

Europe does look a little scared in this environment.

歐洲看起來似乎被 現在的國際環境嚇到了，

So much of what is happening in the Middle East

所以那些發生在中東的事情，

is washing up quite literally onto European shores.

毫不誇張地說， 已經波及到了歐洲邊境。

你們可以看到欧洲人對英國脫歐 還有民粹主義的關注

You see Brexit and you see the concerns of populism

across all of the European states.

已經遍及了歐洲全境。

Let me tell you that over the long term,

要我說，長期而言，

在G0的世界中，

in a G-Zero world,

European expansion will be seen to have gone too far.

歐洲的擴張太快了。

Europe went right up to Russia, went right down to the Middle East,

歐洲現在十分靠近俄羅斯和中東，

and if the world were truly becoming more flat and more Americanized,

如果這個世界真的變得 更加扁平化及美國化，

that would be less of a problem,

這不值一提。

but in a G-Zero world, those countries nearest Russia

但對於G0的世界來說，

那些緊鄰俄羅斯和中東的國家，

and nearest the Middle East

actually have different economic capabilities,

他們實際上與歐洲核心 有著不同的經濟量體、

different social stability

不同的社會穩定因素、

and different political preferences and systems than core Europe.

以及不同的政治觀點與系統。

So Europe was able to truly expand

所以歐盟確實可以在 G7的幫助下進行擴張，

under the G7,

but under the G-Zero, Europe will get smaller.

但是對於G0，歐洲會重新縮小。

Core Europe around Germany and France and others

圍繞著德法的歐洲核心國家，

will still work, be functional, stable, wealthy, integrated.

能依舊正常運行， 依舊穩定、富裕、互相補益。

But the periphery,

但那些周邊國家，

就像希臘、土耳其還有其他的一些，

countries like Greece and Turkey and others,

will not look that good at all.

可能就會很糟糕了。

Latin America, a lot of populism,

拉丁美洲，民粹主義的樂園，

made the economies not go so well.

經濟被搞得差強人意。

They had been more opposed to the United States for decades.

幾十年間他們都對美國陽奉陰違，

Increasingly, they're coming back.

但是現在，他們逐漸地靠攏回來了。

We see that in Argentina.

我們可以看到阿根廷的變化、

看到古巴的開放、

We see it with the openness in Cuba.

We will see it in Venezuela when Maduro falls.

看到委內瑞拉的馬杜羅下臺、

看到發生在巴西的彈劾、

We will see it in Brazil after the impeachment

and when we finally see a new legitimate president elected there.

並最終看到一個新的合法總統當選。

The only place you see that is moving in another direction

唯一頑固不化的地方，

is the unpopularity of Mexican president Peña Nieto.

是墨西哥，總統佩尼亞·尼托正失去民意。

There you could actually see a slip away from the United States

在接下來的幾年中， 你將看到他們逐漸離了美國單幹。

over the coming years.

The US election matters a lot on that one, too.

儘管美國大選 會對那裡會產生巨大的影響。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Africa, right?

非洲，

A lot of people have said it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.

很多人說接下來十年是非洲的十年。

In a G-Zero world, it is absolutely an amazing time

在這個G0的世界中， 對少數非洲國家而言，

for a few African countries,

這無疑會是一個令人驚奇的時代。

那些「少數國家」施政良好、 同時城市化進程較快，

those governed well with a lot of urbanization,

a lot of smart people, women really getting into the workforce,

還有大量富有智慧的國民， 那裡婦女真正地有活可幹，

entrepreneurship taking off.

創業也蓬勃興起。

But for most of the countries in Africa,

但對於大多數非洲國家，

這無疑是場冒險：

it's going to be a lot more dicey:

extreme climate conditions,

他們要面對極端氣候環境、

radicalism both from Islam and also Christianity,

來自伊斯蘭教和基督教的激進主義、

very poor governance,

乏善可陳的統治、

borders you can't defend, lots of forced migration.

無法禦敵於國門之外、 甚至大量強行吞併……

Those countries can fall off the map.

那些國家可能從地圖上消失。

So you're really going to see an extreme segregation going on

所以你將會看到巨大的隔閡逐漸產生，

between the winners and the losers across Africa.

它橫貫於非洲的勝利者與失敗者之間。

Finally, back to the United States.

最後，讓我們回歸美國。

What do I think about us?

我們怎麼看自己的國家的？

Because there are a lot of upset people,

這裡有大量對政治失望的人，

not here at TEDx, I know,

當然我知道不會出現在這個TEDx會場裡。

but in the United States, my God,

但是他們遍佈美國，天啊！

after 15 months of campaigning, we should be upset.

在15個月的競選長跑後 我們會變得失望，

I understand that.

我能理解這個心情。

But a lot of people are upset because they say, "Washington's broken,

但是很多人失望地說： 「華盛頓變差了」

we don't trust the establishment, we hate the media."

「我們不相信當權者」 「我們痛恨媒體」

哎，像我這樣的全球主義者，

Heck, even globalists like me are taking it on the chin.

都會把這些話掛在嘴邊。

注意！我認為我們必須認清，

Look, I do think we have to recognize,

my fellow campers,

我們與和我們一同野營的國家夥伴們，

當一同被某頭危機巨熊追逐著的時候，

that when you are being chased by the bear,

in the global context, you need not outrun the bear,

我們不需要跑過那頭巨熊，

you need to only outrun your fellow campers.

只需要跑過那些夥伴， 讓他們成為被吃掉的就好了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now, I just told you

現在，我剛剛跟你們分析過，

about our fellow campers.

我們那些夥伴的糟糕情況。

不是麼？從這個角度來看，

Right? And from that perspective,

we look OK.

我們做的超棒的。

很多人在現在都說，

A lot of people in that context say,

「我們去賺得美元」 「我們去紐約買房」

"Let's go dollar. Let's go New York real estate.

Let's send our kids to American universities."

「我們去把我們的孩子送進美國的大學」

You know, our neighbors are awesome:

眾所周知，我們的鄰居都很出色：

Canada, Mexico and two big bodies of water.

加拿大，墨西哥，還有兩灘海水。

You know how much Turkey would love to have neighbors like that?

你們知不知道土耳其做夢都想 擁有這樣的鄰居？

他們確實都是好鄰居！

Those are awesome neighbors.

Terrorism is a problem in the United States.

在美國，恐怖主義確實是個問題，

God knows we know it here in New York.

任誰都知道身處紐約的我們知道這些。

但對於歐洲而言這更是一個問題。

But it's a much bigger problem in Europe than the US.

It's a much bigger problem in the Middle East

和歐洲比起來，

than it is in Europe.

中東問題更大了。

These are factors of large magnitude.

這其中有大尺度的因素，

We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees, and we're complaining bitterly about it.

我們剛剛接受了一萬名敘利亞難民， 而且我們對此抱怨不斷。

You know why? Because they can't swim here.

知道為什麼麼？ 因為他們沒有辦法游到這裡。

Right? I mean, the Turks would love to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.

對麼？我的意思是，土耳其會很樂於看見 他們只需接收一萬名難民，

The Jordanians, the Germans, the Brits. Right?

對於約旦人、德國人 和英國人也是，不是麼？

That's not the situation.

這不是假設，

That's the reality of the United States.

美國現在就是這樣。

現在，一切似乎都很好。

Now, that sounds pretty good.

Here's the challenge.

那麼接下來就輪到挑戰了。

In a G-Zero world, the way you lead

在這個G0的世界中， 你要領導世界的方式，

is by example.

就是要當楷模。

If we know we don't want to be the global cop anymore,

如果我們知道，我們不想再 擔任維持秩序的警察角色、

if we know we're not going to be the architect of global trade,

不會再擔任全球貿易的建築師、

we're not going to be the cheerleader of global values,

那我們會失去擔任價值觀引領者的角色。

we're not going to do it the way we used to,

我們的行事作風要變一變了。

21世紀正在改變，

the 21st century is changing,

we need to lead by example -- be so compelling

我們需要擔起楷模 ——那是多麼多令人嚮往。

that all these other people are going to still say,

其他國人都仍將引以為豪，

it's not just they're faster campers.

並不是因為他們跑得快，

Even when the bear is not chasing us, this is a good place to be.

即使巨熊不再追著我們， 這裡仍是個好地方，

We want to emulate them.

我們想要效仿他們。

The election process this year is not proving a good option

今年的選舉， 並沒有一個很好的候選人，

能夠引領美國。

for leading by example.

Hillary Clinton says it's going to be like the '90s.

希拉莉·克林頓說 美國會像90年代那樣，

我們依舊會是價值觀宣導者、

We can still be that cheerleader on values.

我們依舊會是是全球貿易的建築師、

We can still be the architect of global trade.

We can still be the global sheriff.

我們依舊會是世界警察。

And Donald Trump wants to bring us back to the '30s.

而川普想把我們帶回30年代，

He's saying, "Our way or the highway. You don't like it, lump it." Right?

他說：「我們的路或者高速公路。 你不高興也得忍耐」，不是麼？

Neither are recognizing a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,

他們兩個都沒有認清 G0世界的根本真理，

which is that even though the US is not in decline,

這真理就算美國也沒有否認：

it is getting objectively harder

客觀而言，一切正變得更加困難，

for the Americans to impose their will,

不論是對外施加意志

even have great influence,

還是在世界秩序上取得更大的影響力。

on the global order.

Are we prepared to truly lead by example?

我們真的有做好 用模範引領世界的準備了麼？

What would we have to do to fix this

我們應該如何去修正這些錯誤？

after November,

在11月大選之後？

after the next president comes in?

在新一任總統進入白宮之後？

Well, either we have to have another crisis that forces us to respond.

我們必須面對另一個危機 來迫使我們作出反應。

A depression would do that.

一場全民狂踩總統的大失望可以做到、

或者再一次的全球金融危機也行、

Another global financial crisis could do this.

God forbid, another 9/11 could do that.

求上帝原諒， 再來一次九一一襲擊事件也可以。

Or, absent crisis,

或者，如果沒有危機發生，

we need to see that the hollowing out, the inequality, the challenges

我們需要認清空洞化、 不平等以及新的挑戰

that are growing and growing in the United States,

正逐漸在美國生根發芽。

are themselves urgent enough

我們有足夠的緊迫感嗎？

to force our leaders to change,

足夠到迫使我們的領導人去改變。

and that we have those voices.

民意的聲音可以迫使他們改變，

Through our cell phones, individually,

透過我們每個人的電話，

we have those voices to compel them to change.

我們用自己的聲音 去強迫他們改變。

There is, of course, a third choice,

當然，還有第三種選擇，

perhaps the most likely one,

也是最有可能的選擇。

which is that we do neither of those things,

而那個選擇就是 我們什麼都不做，

and in four years time you invite me back,

四年後你們再度邀我過來，

and I will give this speech yet again.

然後我再念一遍稿子。

Thank you very, very much.

謝謝，非常感謝！

(Applause)

（掌聲）