How the US should use its superpower status | Ian Bremmer

90,126 views ใƒป 2016-11-16

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Joo Young Moon ๊ฒ€ํ† : Jihyeon J. Kim
00:12
When you come to TEDx, you always think about technology,
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TEDx ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์— ์˜ค์‹ค ๋•Œ๋ฉด
์œผ๋ ˆ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ณผ ์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”์™€ ์ข€ ๋” ํ˜์‹ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์ƒ๊ฐ๋“ค ํ•˜์‹œ์ฃ .
00:15
the world changing, becoming more innovative.
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00:17
You think about the driverless.
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์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์€์š”?
00:19
Everyone's talking about driverless cars these days,
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์š”์ฆ˜ ๋“ค์–ด์„œ ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ
00:22
and I love the concept of a driverless car,
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์ „ ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ตฌ์ƒ์€ ๋ง˜์— ๋“ค์ง€๋งŒ
00:26
but when I go in one, you know,
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๊ทธ ์ฐจ์— ์ง์ ‘ ํƒ„๋‹ค๋ฉด
00:29
I want it really slow,
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์†๋„๋Š” ์ •๋ง ์ฒœ์ฒœํžˆ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
00:32
I want access to the steering wheel and the brake, just in case.
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๋งŒ์ผ์„ ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•ด์„œ ํ•ธ๋“ค๊ณผ ๋ธŒ๋ ˆ์ดํฌ ์กฐ์ž‘์€ ์ง์ ‘ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ด์š”.
00:37
I don't know about you, but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰ ๋ฒ„์Šค๋ฅผ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”์ง„ ๋ชจ๋ฅด์ง€๋งŒ
00:42
I am not ready for a driverless airplane.
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์ „ ์•„์ง ์ž๋™ ์กฐ์ข… ๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ์—๋„ ์ ์‘์„ ๋ชป ํ–ˆ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
00:46
How about a driverless world?
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์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰์˜ ์„ธ์ƒ์€ ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ์š”?
00:50
And I ask you that
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์ด ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š”
00:52
because we are increasingly in one.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์„ธ์ƒ์ด ์ ์  ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์›Œ์ง€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:56
It's not supposed to be that way.
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๊ผญ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฒ•์€ ์—†๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋„˜๋ฒ„ ์›์ด์ž–์š”.
00:58
We're number one,
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01:00
the United States is large and in charge.
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๋ฏธํ•ฉ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ํฌ๊ณ  ๋งก์€๋ฐ” ์†Œ์ž„์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ณ ์š”.
01:04
Americanization and globalization for the last several generations
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๋ฏธ๊ตญํ™”์™€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”๋Š” ์ง€๋‚œ ๋ช‡ ์„ธ๋Œ€ ๋™์•ˆ
01:09
have basically been the same thing.
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๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ™์€ ์˜๋ฏธ๋กœ ์—ฌ๊ฒจ์ ธ ์™”์ฃ .
01:12
Right? Whether it's the World Trade Organization
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋ฌด์—ญ ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ๋‚˜
01:15
or it's the IMF, the World Bank,
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๊ตญ์ œ ํ†ตํ™” ๊ธฐ๊ธˆ๊ณผ ์„ธ๊ณ„์€ํ–‰ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
01:18
the Bretton Woods Accord on currency,
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๋ธŒ๋ ˆํŠผ ์šฐ์ฆˆ ํ†ตํ™” ํ˜‘์•ฝ ๋“ฑ์€
๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ œ๋„์ด๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€์น˜์ด์ž ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
01:20
these were American institutions,
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01:21
our values, our friends, our allies, our money, our standards.
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๋™์ง€์™€ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์ž์ด๋ฉฐ ๋ˆ์ด๊ณ  ํ‘œ์ค€์ด๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
01:26
That was the way the world worked.
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๊ทธ์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ์—ˆ์ฃ .
01:30
So it's sort of interesting, if you want to look at how the US looks,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์ข€ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ๊ฒŒ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ด๊ฑธ ๋ณด์‹œ๋ฉด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์œ„์ƒ์ด
์–ด๋Š ์ •๋„์ธ์ง€ ์•„์‹ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
01:35
here it is.
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01:36
This is our view of how the world is run.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ์˜ ๊ด€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๋Š” ์„ธ์ƒ์ธ๋ฐ
01:39
President Obama has got the red carpet,
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์˜ค๋ฐ”๋งˆ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด ๋ ˆ๋“œ ์นดํŽซ์ด ๊น”๋ฆฐ
01:42
he goes down Air Force One,
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๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น ์ „์šฉ๊ธฐ์—์„œ ๋‚ด๋ ค์˜ค๋Š” ๋ชจ์Šต์€
01:44
and it feels pretty good, it feels pretty comfortable.
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๋ณด๊ธฐ์— ์•„์ฃผ ๊ธฐ๋ถ„ ์ข‹๊ณ  ํก์กฑํ•˜์ฃ .
01:47
Well, I don't know how many of you saw the China trip last week
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์ง€๋‚œ ์ฃผ G20 ์ •์ƒ ํšŒ์˜์ฐจ
01:50
and the G20.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์— ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธํ•œ ๋ชจ์Šต์„ ๋ช‡ ๋ถ„์ด๋‚˜ ๋ณด์…จ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ชจ๋ฅด์ง€๋งŒ
01:52
Oh my God. Right?
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์ด๋Ÿด ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€!
01:54
This is how we landed
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์ฐฉ๋ฅ™ ํ›„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์€
01:56
for the most important meeting of the world's leaders in China.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์—์„œ ๊ฐœ์ตœํ•˜๋Š” ์ œ์ผ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ •์ƒ๋“ค์˜ ํšŒ๋‹ด์ธ๋ฐ๋„
02:00
The National Security Advisor was actually spewing expletives
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์•ˆ๋ณด๋ณด์ขŒ๊ด€์ด ํ™œ์ฃผ๋กœ์—์„œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์š•์„ ํ•  ์ •๋„๋กœ
02:04
on the tarmac --
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ํ˜•ํŽธ์—†์—ˆ์ฃ .
02:06
no red carpet,
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๋ ˆ๋“œ์นดํŽซ๋„ ์•ˆ ๊น”๋ฆฐ ๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ์—์„œ ๋‚ด๋ฆฐ ํ›„์—”
02:07
kind of left out the bottom of the plane
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๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฏธ๋””์–ด์™€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ๋’ค์„ž์—ฌ์„œ ๋น ์ ธ๋‚˜์™”์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
02:10
along with all the media and everybody else.
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02:13
Later on in the G20,
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G20 ์ •์ƒ ํšŒ์˜ ํ›„ ์˜ค๋ฐ”๋งˆ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์˜ ๋ชจ์Šต์ด์ฃ .
02:15
well, there's Obama.
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02:18
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
02:19
Hi, George.
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- ์•ˆ๋…•ํ•˜์‹ ๊ฐ€, ์ฃ ์ง€. - ์•ˆ๋…•ํ•˜์‹œ์˜ค, ๋…ธ๋จผ.
02:21
Hi, Norman.
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02:24
They look like they're about to get into a cage match, right?
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๋‘˜์ด ๊ณง ์ฒ ์žฅ์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€์„œ ํ•œ ํŒ ๋ถ™์„ ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™์•„ ๋ณด์ด์ฃ ?
02:28
And they did. It was 90 minutes long, and they talked about Syria.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ 90๋ถ„ ๋™์•ˆ ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์•„ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ ์„ค์ „์„ ๋ฒŒ์ด๊ธด ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
02:31
That's what Putin wanted to talk about.
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ํ‘ธํ‹ด์€ ์ ์  ์ด์„ฑ์„ ๋†’์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ๋„
02:33
He's increasingly calling the shots.
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02:35
He's the one willing to do stuff there.
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋“ ์ง€ ํ•˜๊ฒ ๋‹ค๋Š” ์˜์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€์ฃ .
02:37
There's not a lot of mutual like or trust,
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์–ด๋–ค ์ƒํ˜ธ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋‚˜ ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋„ ์ฐพ์•„๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์ž๋ฆฌ์˜€๊ณ 
02:41
but it's not as if the Americans are telling him what to do.
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ํ‘ธํ‹ด์ด ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ๋†€๋ผ์šธ ๋”ฐ๋ฆ„์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
02:44
How about when the whole 20 are getting together?
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20๊ฐœ ๋‚˜๋ผ์˜ ์ •์ƒ์ด ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ชจ์—ฌ์„œ ๋ฌด๋Œ€์— ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์žˆ์„ ๋• ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ์š”?
02:47
Surely, when the leaders are all onstage,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ข€ ๋” ๋ถ„๋ฐœํ•ด์•ผ๊ฒ ์–ด์š”.
02:49
then the Americans are pulling their weight.
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02:51
Uh-oh.
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02:52
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
02:55
Xi Jinping seems fine.
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์‹œ์ง„ํ•‘์€ ๊ดœ์ฐฎ์•„ ๋ณด์ด๋Š”๊ตฐ์š”.
02:58
Angela Merkel has -- she always does --
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์•™๊ฒ”๋ผ ๋ฉ”๋ฅด์ผˆ์˜ ๋ชจ์Šต์€ ๋ณ€ํ•จ์—†์ด ๋˜‘๊ฐ™๊ณ 
03:00
that look, she always does that.
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03:03
But Putin is telling Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
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ํ‘ธํ‹ด์€ ํ„ฐํ‚ค์˜ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น๊ณผ ๋ฐ€๋‹ด ์ค‘์ด์ฃ .
03:06
and Obama is like, what's going on over there?
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์˜ค๋ฐ”๋งˆ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์€ ๋ญ” ์ผ์ธ๊ฐ€ ์‹ถ์–ด์„œ
์ƒํ™ฉ ํŒŒ์•… ์ค‘์ด์ฃ .
03:11
You see. And the problem is it's not a G20,
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๋”ฐ์ง€๊ณ  ๋ณด๋ฉด G20์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
03:15
the problem is
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์งˆ์„œ์˜ ๋ฆฌ๋”์‹ญ์ด ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง„ G-์ œ๋กœ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ฃ .
03:16
it's a G-Zero world that we live in,
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03:19
a world order where there is no single country or alliance
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๋‹จ์ผ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋‚˜ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ์ด ์•„๋‹Œ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์งˆ์„œ ์†์—์„ 
03:23
that can meet the challenges of global leadership.
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๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๋ฆฌ๋”์‹ญ์ด ๋„์ „๋ฐ›์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
03:27
The G20 doesn't work,
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G20์€ ์œ ๋ช…๋ฌด์‹คํ•˜๊ณ 
03:29
the G7, all of our friends, that's history.
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G7์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์šฐ๋ฐฉ๊ตญ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ์˜›๋‚ ์–˜๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋์ฃ .
03:34
So globalization is continuing.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜๋„ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”๋Š” ์ง€์†๋˜๋Š” ์ค‘์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:36
Goods and services and people and capital are moving across borders
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์žฌํ™”, ์šฉ์—ญ, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ
์ž๋ณธ์€ ์ด์ „๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ
03:40
faster and faster than ever before,
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๊ตญ๊ฒฝ์„ ๋„˜๋‚˜๋“ค๋ฉฐ ์ด๋™ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
03:42
but Americanization is not.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฏธ๊ตญํ™”๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:45
So if I've convinced you of that,
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์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ•œ ์–˜๊ธฐ์— ๋‚ฉ๋“์ด ๊ฐ€์‹ ๋‹ค๋ฉด
03:47
I want to do two things with the rest of this talk.
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๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋กœ ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์„ ์ด์–ด๊ฐ€๋ฉด์„œ
03:50
I want to talk about the implications of that
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์งš์–ด ๋ณด์ฃ .
03:53
for the whole world.
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03:55
I'll go around it.
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03:56
And then I want to talk about
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๊ทธ๋‹ค์Œ์—” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋•…์˜ ๋‰ด์š• ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด ์ž๋ฆฌ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๋Š”
03:58
what we think right here
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04:01
in the United States and in New York.
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๋ฌด์Šจ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€๋„ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ์ฃ .
04:04
So why? What are the implications. Why are we here?
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์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์™œ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
04:07
Well, we're here
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์„œ
04:09
because the United States,
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์ด ์ž๋ฆฌ์— ์™”์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ด๋ผํฌ์™€ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์˜
04:12
we spent two trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
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์‹คํŒจํ•œ ์ „์Ÿ์—๋‹ค 2์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ผ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
04:16
that were failed.
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04:17
We don't want to do that anymore.
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๋” ์ด์ƒ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ์ง€ ์•Š๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ฉฐ
04:19
We have large numbers of middle and working classes
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์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”์˜ ์•ฝ์†์—์„œ ํ˜œํƒ์„ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์—ฌ๊ธฐ๋Š”
04:22
that feel like they've not benefited from promises of globalization,
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์ค‘์‚ฐ์ธต๊ณผ ๋…ธ๋™๊ณ„์ธต์˜ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ง ๋งŽ์€๋ฐ
04:26
so they don't want to see it particularly.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ํŠนํžˆ ์›ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:29
And we have an energy revolution
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ฐœํ˜์œผ๋กœ
04:32
where we don't need OPEC or the Middle East the way we used to.
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์˜ˆ์ „์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์„์œ  ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ์ค‘๋™์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜์ง€๋„ ์•Š๊ณ 
04:35
We produce all that right here in the United States.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ์ฃ .
04:38
So the Americans don't want to be the global sheriff for security
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ๋กœ์„œ
๊ตญ์ œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์•ˆ๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ฑ…์ž„์ง€๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
04:43
or the architect of global trade.
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋ฌด์—ญ์„ ์„ค๊ณ„ํ•˜๊ณ 
04:45
The Americans don't want to even be the cheerleader of global values.
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์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๋…๋ คํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์กฐ์ฐจ๋„ ์›์น˜ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
04:49
Well, then you look to Europe,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ, ์ด์ œ
์œ ๋Ÿฝ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ฃ .
04:52
and the most important alliance in the world
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๊ทธ๊ณณ์€ ๋Œ€์„œ์–‘์„ ๊ฐ€๋กœ์งˆ๋Ÿฌ์„œ ๋งบ์–ด์ง„
04:54
has been the transatlantic relationship.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๋™๋งน ๊ด€๊ณ„์ด์ง€๋งŒ
04:57
But it is now weaker than it has been at any point since World War II,
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์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ 2์ฐจ ๋Œ€์ „ ์ดํ›„๋กœ
๊ทธ ์–ด๋–ค ๋•Œ๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ด€๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์•ฝํ•ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:02
all of the crises, the Brexit conversations,
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์œ„๊ธฐ์—๋‹ค ๋ธŒ๋ ‰์‹œํŠธ ๋‹ด๋ก ๊นŒ์ง€
05:04
the hedging going on between the French and the Russians,
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ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค์™€ ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„ ์‚ฌ์ด์—์„œ ๊ฐ‘๋ก ์„๋ฐ• ์ค‘์ด๊ณ 
05:08
or the Germans and the Turks, or the Brits and the Chinese.
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๋…์ผ๊ณผ ํ„ฐํ‚ค์—์„œ ๋˜๋Š” ์˜๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ค‘๊ตญ์—์„œ๋„ ์˜ค๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ค‘์ด์ฃ .
05:13
China does want to do more leadership.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๋‹จ์ง€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์˜์—ญ์—์„œ๋งŒ ๋ฆฌ๋”์‹ญ์„ ๋” ๋ฐœํœ˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์›ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ
05:14
They do, but only in the economic sphere,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿํ•ด์„œ
05:18
and they want their own values, standards, currency,
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์ž๊ตญ์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜์™€ ๊ธฐ์ถ• ํ†ตํ™”์—๋งŒ ๊ตญํ•œํ•˜์ฃ .
05:21
in competition with that of the US.
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05:23
The Russians want to do more leadership.
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๊ทธ์™€ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๋Š” ์šฐํฌ๋ผ์ด๋‚˜์™€
05:25
You see that in Ukraine,
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05:27
in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,
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๋ฐœํŠธ ์ œ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ค‘๋™์—์„œ๋„ ๋” ๋ฐœํœ˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ด ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
05:30
but not with the Americans.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ๋ฐฐ์ œํ•œ ์ฑ„๋กœ ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๊ฐ€ ์šฐ์„ ๊ถŒ๊ณผ ์งˆ์„œ๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฃจ๊ธฐ ์›ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:31
They want their own preferences and order.
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05:34
That's why we are where we are.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฐ ์ด ์ž๋ฆฌ์— ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋œ ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
05:37
So what happens going forward?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์•ž์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ฐœ๋  ์ƒํ™ฉ์€ ์–ด๋–จ์ง€
05:40
Let's start easy,
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์‹œ์ž‘์€ ์–ด๋ ต์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒŒ ์ค‘๋™๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ์ฃ .
05:42
with the Middle East.
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05:45
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
05:48
You know, I left a little out,
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๊ธธ๊ฒŒ ์„ค๋ช… ์•ˆ ๋“œ๋ ค๋„ ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ดํ•ด๋˜์‹ค ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:51
but you get the general idea.
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05:54
Look, there are three reasons
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์ค‘๋™์ด ๊ทธ๋‚˜๋งˆ
์•ˆ์ •์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
05:56
why the Middle East has had stability such as it is. Right?
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06:01
One is because there was a willingness to provide
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์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ด์œ ๋Š”
์ค‘๋™์—์„  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ
06:05
some level of military security by the US and allies.
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์ผ์ • ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ์•ˆ๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋งก๊ธฐ๋ ค๋Š” ์˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ 
06:08
Number two, it was easy to take a lot of cheap money out of the ground
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๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ์œ ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋น„์‹ธ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ตญ์™ธ์—์„œ
06:13
because oil was expensive.
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์ €๋ฆฌ ์ž๊ธˆ์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ๋ฉฐ
06:15
And number three
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์„ธ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ์ง€๋„์ž์—๊ฒŒ ์–ด๋–ค ํ ์ด ์žˆ๋”๋ผ๋„
06:16
was no matter how bad the leaders were, the populations were relatively quiescent.
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๊ตญ๋ฏผ์ด ์ž˜๋ชป์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๋ณ„ ๋ฐ˜์‘์ด ์—†๊ณ 
06:21
They didn't have the ability, and many didn't have the will
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๊ทธ๋Ÿด ๋งŒํ•œ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๋„ ์—†์„๋ฟ๋”๋Ÿฌ ๊ตณ์ด ์ €ํ•ญํ•  ์˜์ง€๋„ ์—†์–ด์„œ์ฃ .
06:24
to really rise up against.
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06:25
Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world,
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๋ฆฌ๋”์‹ญ์ด ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง„ ์„ธ์ƒ์ธ G-์ œ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„ 
06:28
all three of those things are increasingly not true,
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์œ„์— ๋‚˜์—ดํ•œ ์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ ์  ์‚ฌ์‹ค๊ณผ ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์ง€๊ณ 
06:32
and so failed states,
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์™„์ „ํžˆ ์‹คํŒจํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ๋กœ
06:34
terrorism, refugees and the rest.
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ํ…Œ๋Ÿฌ ํ–‰์œ„์™€ ๋‚œ๋ฏผ๋“ค ๊ทธ ๋ฐ–์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
06:37
Does the entire Middle East fall apart?
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์ค‘๋™ ์ „์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฐ๋‹จ๋‚ ๊นŒ์š”?
06:39
No, the Kurds will do better, and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์ฃ . ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ํ๋ฅผ์ˆ˜๋ก ์ฟ ๋ฅด๋“œ, ์ด๋ผํฌ
06:43
But generally speaking, it's not a good look.
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์ด์Šค๋ผ์—˜, ์ด๋ž€์ด ๋” ์ž˜ํ•  ํ…Œ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
06:45
OK, how about this guy?
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ์š”?
06:49
He's playing a poor hand very well.
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๋ฏธ์ˆ™ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์ง์ด ์—†๊ณ 
06:51
There's no question he's hitting above his weight.
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๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๋„ ์—†์œผ๋ฉด์„œ ์ผ ๋ฒŒ์ด๋Š” ๋ด ์„ ์ˆ˜์ฃ .
06:54
But long term -- I didn't mean that.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์˜๋ฏธ๋กœ์š”.
06:57
But long term, long term,
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์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ฑธ์ณ์„œ์š”.
์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ฑธ์ณ์„œ
07:02
if you think that the Russians
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๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์— ๋ฐ˜๊ฐ์„ ์‚ฌ๊ณ 
07:03
were antagonized by the US and Europe expanding NATO right up to their borders
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๋” ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€ ๊ตญ๊ฒฝ ์ง€๋Œ€์— ์ธ์ ‘ํ•œ ๋‚˜ํ† ๊นŒ์ง€๋„ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด
07:09
when we said they weren't going to,
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์„ค๋งˆ ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ์ด์—
07:11
and the EU encroaching them,
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EU๋Š” ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๋ฅผ ์นจํ•ดํ•˜๊ณ 
07:13
just wait until the Chinese put hundreds of billions of dollars
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์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„ ์ฃผ๋ณ€ ๋‚˜๋ผ์— ์ˆ˜์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ํˆฌ์ž…ํ•  ๋•Œ๋งŒ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๋ฉด
07:17
in every country around Russia they thought they had influence in.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ž๊ตญ์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฏฟ๊ณ 
07:20
The Chinese are going to dominate it. The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
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๊ทธ๊ณณ์„ ์ง€๋ฐฐํ•˜๊ณ  ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๋Š” ๊ทธ ๋ถ€์Šค๋Ÿฌ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ฃผ์›Œ ๋จน๊ฒ ์ฃ .
G-์ œ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„  ํ‘ธํ‹ด ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ นํ•œํ… 10๋…„๊ฐ„ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ๊ธด์žฅ๊ฐ์ด ๊ฐ๋„๋Š”
07:24
In a G-Zero world, this is going to be a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
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์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:33
It's not all bad. Right?
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๋‚˜์œ ๊ฒƒ๋งŒ ์žˆ์ง„ ์•Š์•„์š”.
07:35
Asia actually looks a lot better.
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์•„์‹œ์•„๋Š” ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ์ข‹์•„ ๋ณด์ด๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
07:38
There are real leaders across Asia,
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์•„์‹œ์•„์—” ์ง„์งœ ์ง€๋„์ž๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ
07:41
they have a lot of political stability.
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์ •์น˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์•ˆ์ •๋๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
07:43
They're there for a while.
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ง€๋„์ž ์ค‘์— ์ธ๋„์˜ ๋ชจ๋”” ์ด๋ฆฌ์™€
07:44
Mr. Modi in India,
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07:47
Mr. Abe, who is probably about to get a third term written in
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์ผ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฏผ๋‹น์˜ ์ด์žฌ์ง์— 3์„  ์—ฐ์ž„์„ ์•ž๋‘”
์•„๋ฒ  ์ด๋ฆฌ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
07:51
in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan,
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07:53
of course Xi Jinping who is consolidating enormous power,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์—” ์‹œ์ง„ํ•‘์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
๋งˆ์˜ค์ฉŒ๋‘ฅ ์ดํ›„๋กœ
07:56
the most powerful leader in China
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์„ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•œ ์ œ์ผ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์ง€๋„์ž๋กœ์„œ
07:58
since Mao.
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์ •์น˜์ ์ธ ์•ˆ์ •์„ ๋˜์ฐพ์•˜์ฃ .
08:00
Those are the three most important economies in Asia.
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๊ทธ ์„ธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋Š” ์•„์‹œ์•„์—์„œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
08:03
Now look, there are problems in Asia.
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๋ฌธ์ œ๋„ ์žˆ๊ธด ํ•ด์š”.
08:05
We see the sparring over the South China Sea.
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๋‚จ์ค‘๊ตญํ•ด๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๋ถ„์Ÿ๊ณผ
08:08
We see that Kim Jong Un, just in the last couple of days,
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๊น€์ •์€์ด ์ง€๋‚œ ๋ฉฐ์น  ๋™์•ˆ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ•ต๋ฌด๊ธฐ ์‹คํ—˜์„
08:10
tested yet another nuclear weapon.
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๊ฐ•ํ–‰ํ–ˆ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
08:14
But the leaders in Asia do not feel the need
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์•„์‹œ์•„์˜ ์ง€๋„์ž๋“ค์€ ์• ๊ตญ์‹ฌ์„ ๊ณ ์–‘ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”
08:18
to wave the flag,
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ํ•„์š”๋ฅผ ๋ชป ๋Š๋ผ๊ณ 
08:19
to go xenophobic,
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์™ธ๊ตญ์ธ ํ˜์˜ค ๋ฌธ์ œ์™€
08:21
to actually allow escalation
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์ง€์ •ํ•™์ ์ธ ์˜ํ†  ๋ถ„์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตญ๊ฒฝ ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ ๊ธด์žฅ์ด ๊ณ ์กฐ๋˜๋Š”
08:24
of the geopolitical and cross-border tensions.
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๋ฌธ์ œ์—์„œ ์ž์œ ๋กญ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
08:27
They want to focus on long-term economic stability and growth.
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์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์•ˆ์ •๊ณผ ์„ฑ์žฅ์— ๋” ์ฃผ๋ ฅํ•˜๊ธฐ ์›ํ•˜๊ณ 
08:32
And that's what they're actually doing.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์‹ค์ฒœํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:35
Let's turn to Europe.
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๋‹ค์‹œ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด์ฃ .
08:38
Europe does look a little scared in this environment.
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์œ ๋Ÿฝ์€ ๋‘๋ ค์›Œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™์€๋ฐ
08:40
So much of what is happening in the Middle East
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์š”์ฆ˜ ์ค‘๋™์—์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ
08:43
is washing up quite literally onto European shores.
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์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์˜ ๋’ท๊ฐ๋‹น์„ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์˜ ํ•ด์•ˆ๊ฐ€์—์„œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์„œ์ฃ .
08:48
You see Brexit and you see the concerns of populism
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์˜๊ตญ์˜ ๋ธŒ๋ ‰์‹œํŠธ์™€ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์ „์—ญ์˜ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋งˆ๋‹ค
08:51
across all of the European states.
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ํฌํ”Œ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์šฐ๋ ค๋„ ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
08:55
Let me tell you that over the long term,
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์•ž์„œ ์–˜๊ธฐํ–ˆ๋˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ฑธ์นœ G-์ œ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„ 
08:58
in a G-Zero world,
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08:59
European expansion will be seen to have gone too far.
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์œ ๋Ÿฝ์ด ์ง€๋‚˜์น˜๊ฒŒ ํ™•์žฅ๋์Œ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
09:04
Europe went right up to Russia, went right down to the Middle East,
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์œ ๋Ÿฝ ๋Œ€๋ฅ™์˜ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์œ„๋Š” ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๊ณ 
09:08
and if the world were truly becoming more flat and more Americanized,
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๋ฐ‘์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ค‘๋™์ธ๋ฐ ์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์ง„์ •์œผ๋กœ
๋” ์•ˆ์ •๋˜๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๊ตญํ™”๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๊ทธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ๋œ ํ•  ํ…Œ์ง€๋งŒ
09:12
that would be less of a problem,
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09:14
but in a G-Zero world, those countries nearest Russia
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๋ฆฌ๋”๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง„ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„  ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„์™€ ์ค‘๋™์—
09:17
and nearest the Middle East
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์ œ์ผ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€
09:19
actually have different economic capabilities,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ ฅ, ์‚ฌํšŒ ์•ˆ์ „์„ฑ ์ •์น˜ ์„ ํ˜ธ๋„์™€
09:22
different social stability
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๋“ฑ์ด
09:24
and different political preferences and systems than core Europe.
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์œ ๋Ÿฝ ๋Œ€๋ฅ™์˜ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค๊ณผ ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์„œ
09:28
So Europe was able to truly expand
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G7 ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์งˆ์„œ์—์„  ํ™•์žฅํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
09:31
under the G7,
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๋ฆฌ๋”์‹ญ์ด ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง„ G-์ œ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„ 
09:33
but under the G-Zero, Europe will get smaller.
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์ ์  ์ถ•์†Œ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:36
Core Europe around Germany and France and others
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ๋‚ด๋ฅ™์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋…์ผ๊ณผ ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค๋Š” ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ
09:40
will still work, be functional, stable, wealthy, integrated.
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๊ฑด์žฌํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์กฐ์ง์ ์ด๋ฉฐ ์•ˆ์ •๋˜๋ฉฐ ๋ถ€์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ํ†ตํ•ฉ์„ ์ด๋ฃฐ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์ง€๋งŒ
09:44
But the periphery,
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๋Œ€๋ฅ™์˜ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ„์— ์žˆ๋Š”
09:46
countries like Greece and Turkey and others,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ์Šค, ํ„ฐํ‚ค ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ์™ธ์˜ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์€
09:48
will not look that good at all.
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๋‚˜์•„์งˆ ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:52
Latin America, a lot of populism,
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ํฌํ”Œ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์ด ํŒ์„ ์น˜๋Š” ๋‚จ์•„๋ฉ”๋ฆฌ์นด์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋„
09:55
made the economies not go so well.
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์ž˜ ํ’€๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์‹ญ ๋…„๊ฐ„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—
09:57
They had been more opposed to the United States for decades.
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๋”์šฑ ๋ฐ˜๊ฐ์„ ํ’ˆ๊ธด ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
10:00
Increasingly, they're coming back.
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์ ์  ๋Œ์•„์˜ค๋Š” ์ค‘์ธ๋ฐ
10:02
We see that in Argentina.
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์•„๋ฅดํ—จํ‹ฐ๋‚˜์—์„œ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ  ์ฟ ๋ฐ”์˜ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ .
10:04
We see it with the openness in Cuba.
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10:05
We will see it in Venezuela when Maduro falls.
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๋งˆ๋‘๋กœ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์˜ ์‹ค์ฑ… ์ดํ›„์— ๋ฒ ๋„ค์ˆ˜์—˜๋ผ๋„ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ
10:09
We will see it in Brazil after the impeachment
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๋ธŒ๋ผ์งˆ์€ ํƒ„ํ•ต ์ดํ›„ ํ•ฉ๋ฒ•์ ์ธ ์ƒˆ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด ์„ ์ถœ๋œ ๋•Œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
10:12
and when we finally see a new legitimate president elected there.
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์ตœ์ข…์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทธ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:16
The only place you see that is moving in another direction
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๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ”์˜ ์ธ๊ธฐ ์—†๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ธ
10:19
is the unpopularity of Mexican president Peรฑa Nieto.
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ํŽ˜๋ƒ ๋‹ˆ์—ํ† ๋งŒ ์œ ์ผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ์™€ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€ ๋…ธ์„ ์„ ์ทจํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ
10:23
There you could actually see a slip away from the United States
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์•ž์œผ๋กœ ๋ช‡ ๋…„ ์ด์ƒ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ์ดํƒˆํ•˜๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
10:27
over the coming years.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์„ ๊ฑฐ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋” ํ•ด์ ธ์„œ ๋ถˆ๋‚œ ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฆ„ ๋ถ“๋Š” ๊ผด์ด ๋์ฃ .
10:28
The US election matters a lot on that one, too.
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10:31
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:33
Africa, right?
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์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด๋Š” ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ์š”?
10:35
A lot of people have said it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.
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๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์˜ 10๋…„์ด ๋  ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:38
In a G-Zero world, it is absolutely an amazing time
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G-์ œ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์†์—์„œ ๊ต‰์žฅํ•œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋งž๊ธด ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
10:42
for a few African countries,
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์†Œ์ˆ˜์˜ ๋‚˜๋ผ์— ํ•œํ•ด์„œ์ฃ .
10:44
those governed well with a lot of urbanization,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋Š” ๋„์‹œํ™”๊ฐ€ ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์ง„์ฒ™๋˜๊ณ 
10:46
a lot of smart people, women really getting into the workforce,
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๋˜‘๋˜‘ํ•œ ์ธ์žฌ์™€ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋“ค์ด ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋…ธ๋™ ํ˜„์žฅ์— ๋›ฐ์–ด๋“ค๋„๋ก
10:50
entrepreneurship taking off.
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๊ธฐ์—…๋„ ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ค„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:52
But for most of the countries in Africa,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€
๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋  ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ ์•„์ฃผ ๋‚ฎ์ฃ .
10:55
it's going to be a lot more dicey:
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10:56
extreme climate conditions,
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๊ทนํ•œ์˜ ๊ธฐํ›„ ์กฐ๊ฑด๊ณผ
10:59
radicalism both from Islam and also Christianity,
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์ด์Šฌ๋žŒ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ๋…๊ต๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ์˜ ๊ธ‰์ง„์ฃผ์˜์™€
11:04
very poor governance,
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๋ถ€์‹คํ•œ ์ •๋ถ€์™€
11:05
borders you can't defend, lots of forced migration.
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์ทจ์•ฝํ•œ ๊ตญ๊ฒฝ ๋ฐฉ์–ด๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๊ฐ•์ œ ์ด์ฃผ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๊ณ 
11:08
Those countries can fall off the map.
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์ง€๋„์—์„œ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๋“ค์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜์ฃ .
11:10
So you're really going to see an extreme segregation going on
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์ „์—ญ์˜ ์Šน์ž์™€ ํŒจ์ž ์‚ฌ์ด์—์„œ
11:14
between the winners and the losers across Africa.
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๊ทน๋‹จ์ ์ธ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:17
Finally, back to the United States.
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๋“œ๋””์–ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์˜ฌ ์ฐจ๋ก€๊ตฐ์š”.
11:21
What do I think about us?
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋ถ„๋…ธ๋ฅผ ์ฃผ์ฒด ๋ชป ํ•˜๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ
11:24
Because there are a lot of upset people,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ•  ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™๋‚˜์š”?
11:27
not here at TEDx, I know,
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TEDx์˜ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ œ์™ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:29
but in the United States, my God,
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์„ ๊ฑฐ ์šด๋™ 15๊ฐœ์›”์ด ์ง€๋‚œ ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์šฐ๋ฆฐ ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋‚ด์•ผ ํ•˜์ฃ .
11:31
after 15 months of campaigning, we should be upset.
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11:34
I understand that.
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์ „ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ ์„ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜์ฃ .
11:36
But a lot of people are upset because they say, "Washington's broken,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์›Œ์‹ฑํ„ด์€ ๋์žฅ๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ •๋ถ€ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์€
๋ฏธ๋ฅ์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ์–ธ๋ก ๋งˆ์ €๋„ ํ˜์˜ค์Šค๋Ÿฝ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:39
we don't trust the establishment, we hate the media."
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์‚ฌํšŒํ•™์ž์ธ ์ €๋„ ๊ฐ™์€ ์‹ฌ์ •์ด๊ณ 
11:42
Heck, even globalists like me are taking it on the chin.
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์”์“ธํ•  ๋”ฐ๋ฆ„์ด์ฃ .
11:46
Look, I do think we have to recognize,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜๋„
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ์ด์ ์„ ์ธ์‹ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:50
my fellow campers,
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๋™์ง€์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜
11:53
that when you are being chased by the bear,
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๊ณฐ์—๊ฒŒ ์ซ“๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด
11:57
in the global context, you need not outrun the bear,
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์„ธ๊ณ„์  ๋งฅ๋ฝ์—์„œ ๋ณด๋ฉด ๊ณฐ์„ ์•ž์ง€๋ฅผ ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์—†๊ณ 
12:01
you need to only outrun your fellow campers.
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๋™์ง€๋งŒ ์•ž์ง€๋ฅด๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:04
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
12:07
Now, I just told you
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์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ์˜ค๋กœ์ง€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋™์ง€์—๊ฒŒ๋งŒ ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜์ž๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
12:09
about our fellow campers.
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12:12
Right? And from that perspective,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์„ธ๊ณ„๊ด€์—์„œ ์ถœ๋ฐœํ•˜๋ฉด
12:14
we look OK.
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์šฐ๋ฆฐ ๊ดœ์ฐฎ์•„ ๋ณด์ด์ž–์•„์š”.
12:17
A lot of people in that context say,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋งฅ๋ฝ์—์„  ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด
'๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ตœ๊ณ ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ๋‰ด์š•์˜ ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ๋„ ์‚ฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์• ๋“ค์€
12:19
"Let's go dollar. Let's go New York real estate.
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12:22
Let's send our kids to American universities."
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋Œ€ํ•™์— ๋ณด๋‚ด์ž'๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜์ฃ .
12:25
You know, our neighbors are awesome:
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ฃผ๋ณ€๊ตญ์€ ๋๋‚ด์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:27
Canada, Mexico and two big bodies of water.
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์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค์™€ ๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ” ๋‘ ๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ฐ•์ค„๊ธฐ์™€๋„ ๊ฐ™์ฃ .
12:30
You know how much Turkey would love to have neighbors like that?
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ํ„ฐํ‚ค์—์„  ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ฃผ๋ณ€๊ตญ์„ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ๋Š”์ง€ ์•„์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
12:35
Those are awesome neighbors.
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์ •๋ง ์ด์ƒ์ ์ธ ์ฃผ๋ณ€๊ตญ์ด์ฃ .
12:38
Terrorism is a problem in the United States.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ํ…Œ๋Ÿฌ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”
12:40
God knows we know it here in New York.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๋‰ด์š•์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋„ ์ž˜ ์•Œ์ง€๋งŒ
12:44
But it's a much bigger problem in Europe than the US.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋ณด๋‹ค ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์€
12:46
It's a much bigger problem in the Middle East
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์œ ๋Ÿฝ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ์ค‘๋™์ด ๋” ์‹ฌํ•˜์ฃ .
12:48
than it is in Europe.
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12:50
These are factors of large magnitude.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ ์ด ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ์–ด์„œ
12:52
We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees, and we're complaining bitterly about it.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‹จ์ง€ 1๋งŒ ๋ช…์˜ ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์•„ ๋‚œ๋ฏผ์„ ๋ฐ›์•„ ๋“ค์—ฌ๋†“๊ณ ๋„
๋ชน์‹œ ๋ถˆํ‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:57
You know why? Because they can't swim here.
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์ด๊ณณ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ—ค์—„์ณ์„œ ์˜ค์ง€๋„ ์•Š๋Š”๋ฐ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ .
13:00
Right? I mean, the Turks would love to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
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ํ„ฐํ‚ค์—์„ 
๋‹จ์ง€ 1๋งŒ ๋ช…์˜ ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์•„ ๋‚œ๋ฏผ๋งŒ ๋ฐ›์•„๋„ ๋งŒ์กฑํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:05
The Jordanians, the Germans, the Brits. Right?
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์š”๋ฅด๋‹จ, ๋…์ผ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์˜๊ตญ๋„ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์„๊นŒ์š”?
13:08
That's not the situation.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ฒ˜์ง€์™€ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ํ˜„์‹ค์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:09
That's the reality of the United States.
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13:13
Now, that sounds pretty good.
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๋“ฃ๊ธฐ์—” ๊ฝค ๊ทธ๋Ÿด๋“ฏํ•˜์ฃ .
13:16
Here's the challenge.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์— ๋„์ „์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑด๋ฐ
13:18
In a G-Zero world, the way you lead
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G-์ œ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋Œ์–ด๊ฐˆ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€
13:22
is by example.
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๋ชจ๋ฒ”์„ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
13:24
If we know we don't want to be the global cop anymore,
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๋” ์ด์ƒ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ์ด ๋˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ 
13:27
if we know we're not going to be the architect of global trade,
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋ฌด์—ญ์˜ ์„ค๊ณ„์ž๋„ ์›์น˜ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉฐ
13:30
we're not going to be the cheerleader of global values,
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์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๋…๋ คํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋ฉด
13:32
we're not going to do it the way we used to,
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๊ตฌํƒœ์— ๋จธ๋ฌผ๋Ÿฌ์„  ์•ˆ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
21์„ธ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋ณ€ํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
13:35
the 21st century is changing,
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13:36
we need to lead by example -- be so compelling
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฐ ๋ชจ๋ฒ”์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•˜์ฃ .
13:39
that all these other people are going to still say,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ
13:41
it's not just they're faster campers.
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๋™์ง€๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ๋„ ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ณ 
13:43
Even when the bear is not chasing us, this is a good place to be.
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๊ณฐ์ด ์ซ“์•„์˜ค์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๋•Œ๋ผ ์‚ด๊ธฐ ์ข‹์€ ๊ณณ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด์„œ
13:46
We want to emulate them.
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๋”ฐ๋ผ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
13:48
The election process this year is not proving a good option
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์˜ฌํ•ด์˜ ์„ ๊ฑฐ ๊ณผ์ •์€ ๋ชจ๋ฒ”์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฉด์—์„œ
๋ฐ”๋ฅธ ์„ ํƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฑฐ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:54
for leading by example.
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13:56
Hillary Clinton says it's going to be like the '90s.
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ํž๋Ÿฌ๋ฆฌ ํด๋ฆฐํ„ด์€ ๋งˆ์น˜ 90๋…„๋Œ€์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
13:59
We can still be that cheerleader on values.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋…๋ คํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
14:02
We can still be the architect of global trade.
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋ฌด์—ญ์˜ ์„ค๊ณ„์ž์™€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ์ด ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ๊ณ 
14:04
We can still be the global sheriff.
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14:06
And Donald Trump wants to bring us back to the '30s.
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๋„๋„๋“œ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„๋Š” 30๋…„๋Œ€๋กœ ํ‡ด๋ณดํ•ด์„œ
14:10
He's saying, "Our way or the highway. You don't like it, lump it." Right?
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๋‚ด ๋ง๋Œ€๋กœ ๋ชป ํ•˜๊ฒ ์œผ๋ฉด ๋– ๋‚˜๊ณ  ์‹ซ์–ด๋„ ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์‹์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
14:14
Neither are recognizing a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
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G-์ œ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ผ๋Š” ๋ณธ์งˆ์ ์ธ ์ง„์‹ค๋„ ์ธ์ • ์•ˆ ํ•˜๊ณ 
14:18
which is that even though the US is not in decline,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์‡ ํ‡ดํ•œ ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์˜์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ•์š”ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
14:22
it is getting objectively harder
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๋” ์–ด๋ ค์›Œ์ง„ ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์ธ์‹ ๋ชป ํ•ด์„œ์ฃ .
14:24
for the Americans to impose their will,
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ์งˆ์„œ์—์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์ด ํฌ๊ธด ํ•ด๋„
14:27
even have great influence,
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์ผ๋ฐฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์˜์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ•์š”ํ•  ์ˆœ ์—†๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
14:29
on the global order.
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14:32
Are we prepared to truly lead by example?
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์ง€๊ธˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋ฒ”์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์ด๋Œ ์ค€๋น„๊ฐ€ ๋๋‚˜์š”?
14:36
What would we have to do to fix this
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์ฐจ๊ธฐ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด ์„ ์ถœ๋œ 11์›” ์ดํ›„์—
14:39
after November,
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ฐ”๋กœ์žก๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
14:40
after the next president comes in?
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14:42
Well, either we have to have another crisis that forces us to respond.
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์–ด์ฉŒ๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฐ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์œ„๊ธฐ๋กœ
์ด ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์žก์•„์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์ฃ .
14:47
A depression would do that.
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๋ถˆ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๊ณ 
14:49
Another global financial crisis could do this.
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๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์ธ ๊ธˆ์œต ์œ„๊ธฐ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
14:51
God forbid, another 9/11 could do that.
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๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ 911์‚ฌํƒœ์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์ฃ .
14:53
Or, absent crisis,
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์œ„๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋ฉด
14:55
we need to see that the hollowing out, the inequality, the challenges
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ฆ๊ถŒ๊ณผ ๊ธˆ์œต์˜ ๊ณต๋™ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋งž๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
๋ถˆํ‰๋“ฑ์— ์žˆ์–ด์„œ
15:01
that are growing and growing in the United States,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ ์  ๋” ํฐ ๋„์ „์„ ๋ฐ›๋Š” ์ผ์ด ๋  ๊ฑฐ๊ณ 
15:04
are themselves urgent enough
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๊ทธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์€ ์ง€๋„์ž์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋˜๋Š”
15:06
to force our leaders to change,
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์‹œ๊ธ‰ํ•œ ์ผ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ชฉ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋‚ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:08
and that we have those voices.
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15:11
Through our cell phones, individually,
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๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™”๋ผ๋„ ํ•ด์„œ
15:13
we have those voices to compel them to change.
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์ง€๋„์ž์—๊ฒŒ ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์‹œ๊ธ‰ํ•จ์„ ์ฃผ์žฅํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:17
There is, of course, a third choice,
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑด
15:20
perhaps the most likely one,
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์„ธ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋ฅผ ์„ ํƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
15:22
which is that we do neither of those things,
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๊ทธ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋„ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ 4๋…„ ํ›„์—๋„
15:24
and in four years time you invite me back,
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์ œ๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์„ ๋ถ€ํƒํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
15:27
and I will give this speech yet again.
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์ „ ์˜ค๋Š˜ ์ด ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์„ ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ํ…Œ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
15:30
Thank you very, very much.
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:32
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์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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