How the US should use its superpower status | Ian Bremmer

90,160 views ・ 2016-11-16

TED


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00:12
When you come to TEDx, you always think about technology,
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the world changing, becoming more innovative.
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You think about the driverless.
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Everyone's talking about driverless cars these days,
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and I love the concept of a driverless car,
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but when I go in one, you know,
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I want it really slow,
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I want access to the steering wheel and the brake, just in case.
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I don't know about you, but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
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I am not ready for a driverless airplane.
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How about a driverless world?
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And I ask you that
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because we are increasingly in one.
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It's not supposed to be that way.
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We're number one,
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the United States is large and in charge.
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Americanization and globalization for the last several generations
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have basically been the same thing.
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Right? Whether it's the World Trade Organization
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or it's the IMF, the World Bank,
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the Bretton Woods Accord on currency,
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these were American institutions,
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our values, our friends, our allies, our money, our standards.
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That was the way the world worked.
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So it's sort of interesting, if you want to look at how the US looks,
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here it is.
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This is our view of how the world is run.
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President Obama has got the red carpet,
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he goes down Air Force One,
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and it feels pretty good, it feels pretty comfortable.
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Well, I don't know how many of you saw the China trip last week
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and the G20.
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Oh my God. Right?
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This is how we landed
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for the most important meeting of the world's leaders in China.
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The National Security Advisor was actually spewing expletives
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on the tarmac --
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no red carpet,
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kind of left out the bottom of the plane
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along with all the media and everybody else.
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Later on in the G20,
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well, there's Obama.
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(Laughter)
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02:19
Hi, George.
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02:21
Hi, Norman.
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They look like they're about to get into a cage match, right?
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And they did. It was 90 minutes long, and they talked about Syria.
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That's what Putin wanted to talk about.
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He's increasingly calling the shots.
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He's the one willing to do stuff there.
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There's not a lot of mutual like or trust,
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but it's not as if the Americans are telling him what to do.
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How about when the whole 20 are getting together?
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Surely, when the leaders are all onstage,
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then the Americans are pulling their weight.
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Uh-oh.
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(Laughter)
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Xi Jinping seems fine.
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Angela Merkel has -- she always does --
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that look, she always does that.
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But Putin is telling Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
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and Obama is like, what's going on over there?
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03:11
You see. And the problem is it's not a G20,
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the problem is
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it's a G-Zero world that we live in,
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a world order where there is no single country or alliance
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that can meet the challenges of global leadership.
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The G20 doesn't work,
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the G7, all of our friends, that's history.
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So globalization is continuing.
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Goods and services and people and capital are moving across borders
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faster and faster than ever before,
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but Americanization is not.
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So if I've convinced you of that,
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I want to do two things with the rest of this talk.
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I want to talk about the implications of that
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for the whole world.
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I'll go around it.
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And then I want to talk about
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what we think right here
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in the United States and in New York.
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So why? What are the implications. Why are we here?
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Well, we're here
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because the United States,
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we spent two trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
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that were failed.
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We don't want to do that anymore.
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We have large numbers of middle and working classes
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that feel like they've not benefited from promises of globalization,
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so they don't want to see it particularly.
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And we have an energy revolution
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where we don't need OPEC or the Middle East the way we used to.
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We produce all that right here in the United States.
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So the Americans don't want to be the global sheriff for security
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or the architect of global trade.
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The Americans don't want to even be the cheerleader of global values.
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Well, then you look to Europe,
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and the most important alliance in the world
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has been the transatlantic relationship.
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But it is now weaker than it has been at any point since World War II,
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all of the crises, the Brexit conversations,
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the hedging going on between the French and the Russians,
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or the Germans and the Turks, or the Brits and the Chinese.
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China does want to do more leadership.
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They do, but only in the economic sphere,
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and they want their own values, standards, currency,
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in competition with that of the US.
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The Russians want to do more leadership.
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You see that in Ukraine,
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in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,
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but not with the Americans.
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They want their own preferences and order.
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That's why we are where we are.
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So what happens going forward?
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Let's start easy,
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with the Middle East.
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(Laughter)
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You know, I left a little out,
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but you get the general idea.
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Look, there are three reasons
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why the Middle East has had stability such as it is. Right?
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One is because there was a willingness to provide
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some level of military security by the US and allies.
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Number two, it was easy to take a lot of cheap money out of the ground
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because oil was expensive.
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And number three
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was no matter how bad the leaders were, the populations were relatively quiescent.
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They didn't have the ability, and many didn't have the will
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to really rise up against.
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Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world,
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all three of those things are increasingly not true,
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and so failed states,
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terrorism, refugees and the rest.
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Does the entire Middle East fall apart?
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No, the Kurds will do better, and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
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But generally speaking, it's not a good look.
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OK, how about this guy?
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He's playing a poor hand very well.
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There's no question he's hitting above his weight.
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But long term -- I didn't mean that.
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But long term, long term,
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if you think that the Russians
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were antagonized by the US and Europe expanding NATO right up to their borders
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when we said they weren't going to,
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and the EU encroaching them,
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just wait until the Chinese put hundreds of billions of dollars
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in every country around Russia they thought they had influence in.
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The Chinese are going to dominate it. The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
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In a G-Zero world, this is going to be a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
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It's not all bad. Right?
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Asia actually looks a lot better.
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There are real leaders across Asia,
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they have a lot of political stability.
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They're there for a while.
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Mr. Modi in India,
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Mr. Abe, who is probably about to get a third term written in
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in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan,
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of course Xi Jinping who is consolidating enormous power,
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the most powerful leader in China
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since Mao.
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Those are the three most important economies in Asia.
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Now look, there are problems in Asia.
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We see the sparring over the South China Sea.
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We see that Kim Jong Un, just in the last couple of days,
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tested yet another nuclear weapon.
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But the leaders in Asia do not feel the need
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to wave the flag,
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to go xenophobic,
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to actually allow escalation
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of the geopolitical and cross-border tensions.
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They want to focus on long-term economic stability and growth.
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And that's what they're actually doing.
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Let's turn to Europe.
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Europe does look a little scared in this environment.
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So much of what is happening in the Middle East
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is washing up quite literally onto European shores.
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You see Brexit and you see the concerns of populism
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across all of the European states.
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Let me tell you that over the long term,
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in a G-Zero world,
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European expansion will be seen to have gone too far.
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Europe went right up to Russia, went right down to the Middle East,
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and if the world were truly becoming more flat and more Americanized,
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that would be less of a problem,
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but in a G-Zero world, those countries nearest Russia
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and nearest the Middle East
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actually have different economic capabilities,
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different social stability
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and different political preferences and systems than core Europe.
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So Europe was able to truly expand
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under the G7,
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but under the G-Zero, Europe will get smaller.
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Core Europe around Germany and France and others
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will still work, be functional, stable, wealthy, integrated.
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But the periphery,
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countries like Greece and Turkey and others,
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will not look that good at all.
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Latin America, a lot of populism,
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made the economies not go so well.
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They had been more opposed to the United States for decades.
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Increasingly, they're coming back.
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We see that in Argentina.
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We see it with the openness in Cuba.
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We will see it in Venezuela when Maduro falls.
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We will see it in Brazil after the impeachment
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and when we finally see a new legitimate president elected there.
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The only place you see that is moving in another direction
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is the unpopularity of Mexican president Peña Nieto.
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There you could actually see a slip away from the United States
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over the coming years.
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The US election matters a lot on that one, too.
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(Laughter)
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Africa, right?
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A lot of people have said it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.
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In a G-Zero world, it is absolutely an amazing time
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for a few African countries,
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those governed well with a lot of urbanization,
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a lot of smart people, women really getting into the workforce,
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entrepreneurship taking off.
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But for most of the countries in Africa,
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it's going to be a lot more dicey:
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extreme climate conditions,
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radicalism both from Islam and also Christianity,
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very poor governance,
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borders you can't defend, lots of forced migration.
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Those countries can fall off the map.
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So you're really going to see an extreme segregation going on
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between the winners and the losers across Africa.
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Finally, back to the United States.
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What do I think about us?
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Because there are a lot of upset people,
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not here at TEDx, I know,
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but in the United States, my God,
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after 15 months of campaigning, we should be upset.
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I understand that.
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But a lot of people are upset because they say, "Washington's broken,
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we don't trust the establishment, we hate the media."
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Heck, even globalists like me are taking it on the chin.
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Look, I do think we have to recognize,
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my fellow campers,
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that when you are being chased by the bear,
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in the global context, you need not outrun the bear,
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you need to only outrun your fellow campers.
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(Laughter)
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Now, I just told you
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about our fellow campers.
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Right? And from that perspective,
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we look OK.
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A lot of people in that context say,
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"Let's go dollar. Let's go New York real estate.
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Let's send our kids to American universities."
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You know, our neighbors are awesome:
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Canada, Mexico and two big bodies of water.
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You know how much Turkey would love to have neighbors like that?
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Those are awesome neighbors.
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Terrorism is a problem in the United States.
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God knows we know it here in New York.
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But it's a much bigger problem in Europe than the US.
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It's a much bigger problem in the Middle East
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than it is in Europe.
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These are factors of large magnitude.
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We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees, and we're complaining bitterly about it.
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You know why? Because they can't swim here.
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Right? I mean, the Turks would love to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
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The Jordanians, the Germans, the Brits. Right?
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That's not the situation.
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That's the reality of the United States.
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Now, that sounds pretty good.
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Here's the challenge.
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In a G-Zero world, the way you lead
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is by example.
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If we know we don't want to be the global cop anymore,
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if we know we're not going to be the architect of global trade,
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we're not going to be the cheerleader of global values,
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we're not going to do it the way we used to,
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the 21st century is changing,
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we need to lead by example -- be so compelling
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that all these other people are going to still say,
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it's not just they're faster campers.
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Even when the bear is not chasing us, this is a good place to be.
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We want to emulate them.
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The election process this year is not proving a good option
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for leading by example.
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Hillary Clinton says it's going to be like the '90s.
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We can still be that cheerleader on values.
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We can still be the architect of global trade.
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We can still be the global sheriff.
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And Donald Trump wants to bring us back to the '30s.
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He's saying, "Our way or the highway. You don't like it, lump it." Right?
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Neither are recognizing a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
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which is that even though the US is not in decline,
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it is getting objectively harder
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for the Americans to impose their will,
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even have great influence,
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on the global order.
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Are we prepared to truly lead by example?
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What would we have to do to fix this
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14:39
after November,
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after the next president comes in?
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14:42
Well, either we have to have another crisis that forces us to respond.
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14:47
A depression would do that.
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Another global financial crisis could do this.
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God forbid, another 9/11 could do that.
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14:53
Or, absent crisis,
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we need to see that the hollowing out, the inequality, the challenges
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15:01
that are growing and growing in the United States,
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are themselves urgent enough
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to force our leaders to change,
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and that we have those voices.
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15:11
Through our cell phones, individually,
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we have those voices to compel them to change.
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There is, of course, a third choice,
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perhaps the most likely one,
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15:22
which is that we do neither of those things,
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and in four years time you invite me back,
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and I will give this speech yet again.
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Thank you very, very much.
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(Applause)
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