How Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google manipulate our emotions | Scott Galloway

866,471 views ・ 2017-12-12

TED


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Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković
00:12
[This talk contains graphic language Viewer discretion is advised]
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[Ovaj govor sadrži slikovit jezik, savetuje se diskrecija gledalaca]
00:16
So, this is the first and the last slide
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Dakle, ovo je prvi i poslednji slajd
00:19
each of my 6,400 students over the last 15 years has seen.
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koji je video svaki od mojih 6.400 studenata u proteklih 15 godina.
00:24
I do not believe you can build a multibillion-dollar organization
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Ne verujem da možete da sagradite višemilijardsku organizaciju
00:27
unless you are clear on which instinct or organ you are targeting.
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ukoliko niste svesni na koji instinkt ili organ da ciljate.
00:33
Our species has a need for a superbeing.
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Naša vrsta ima potrebu za nadbićem.
00:36
Our competitive advantage as a species is our brain.
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Naša konkurentna prednost kao vrste je naš mozak.
00:39
Our brain is robust enough to ask these really difficult questions,
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Naš mozak je dovoljno snažan da postavlja ova zaista teška pitanja,
00:42
but, unfortunately, it doesn't have the processing power to answer them,
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ali, nažalost, nema dovoljnu moć obrade da odgovori na njih,
00:46
which creates a need for a superbeing
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što stvara potrebu za superbićem
00:48
that we can pray to and look to for answers.
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kome možemo da se molimo i obraćamo za odgovore.
00:51
What is prayer?
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Šta je molitva?
00:52
Sending a query into the universe,
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Slanje upita univerzumu,
00:54
and hopefully there's some sort of divine intervention --
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i nadamo se da postoji nekakva božanska intervencija -
00:57
we don't need to understand what's going on --
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ne moramo da razumemo šta se dešava -
00:59
from an all-knowing, all-seeing superbeing
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od nekakvog sveznajućeg, svevidećeg superbića
01:01
that gives us authority that this is the right answer.
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koje nam daje autoritet da je dati odgovor pravi.
01:05
"Will my kid be all right?"
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"Da li će mi detetu biti dobro?"
01:08
You have your planet of stuff,
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Imate svoj svet stvari,
01:10
you have your planet of work,
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imate svoj svet rada,
01:11
you have your planet of friends.
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imate svoj svet prijatelja.
01:13
If you have kids,
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Ako imate decu,
01:15
you know that once something comes off the rails with your kids,
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znate da čim nešto ne ispadne kako treba kod vaše dece,
01:18
everything melts,
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sve se rastače
01:19
in your universe to the Sun that is your kids.
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u vašem univerzumu zbog Sunca koje su vaša deca.
01:22
"Will my kid be all right?"
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"Da li će moje dete da budu dobro?"
01:25
"Symptoms and treatment of croup" in the Google query box.
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"Simptomi i lečenje gušobolje" upit u Guglovom pretraživaču.
01:29
One in six queries presented to Google have never been asked before
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Jedan od šest upita postavljenih Guglu nikad pre nije tražen
01:33
in the history of mankind.
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u istoriji čovečanstva.
01:34
What priest, teacher, rabbi, scholar, mentor, boss has so much credibility
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Koji pop, učitelj, rabin, akademik, mentor, šef ima toliko kredibiliteta
01:40
that one in six questions posed to that person
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da jedno od šest pitanja postavljenih toj osobi
01:42
have never been asked before?
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nikad pre nije upitano?
01:44
Google is our modern man's God.
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Gugl je naš savremni čovekov Bog.
01:47
Imagine your face and your name above everything you've put into that box,
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Zamislite svoje lice i ime iznad svega što stavljate u to polje,
01:52
and you're going to realize you trust Google more than any entity
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i shvatićete da verujete Guglu više nego bilo kom entitetu
01:56
in your history.
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u vašoj istoriji.
01:57
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:58
Let's move further down the torso.
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Pomerimo se niže niz torzo.
02:00
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:02
One of the other wonderful things about our species
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Još jedna divna stvar kod naše vrste
02:05
is we not only need to be loved, but we need to love others.
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je što ne samo da nam je potrebna ljubav već imamo potrebu da volimo druge.
02:08
Children with poor nutrition but a lot of affection
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Deca koja se loše hrane, ali imaju mnogo ljubavi
02:11
have better outcomes than children with good nutrition and poor affection.
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imaju bolje izglede od dece koja se dobro hrane, ali ih malo vole.
02:16
However, the best signal that you might make it
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Međutim, najbolji znak da ćete uspeti
02:19
to be part of the number-one fastest growing demographic in the world --
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da budete deo najbrže rastuće demografije u svetu -
02:24
centenarians, people who live to triple digits --
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stogodišnjaka, ljudi koji dožive do tri cifre -
02:26
there are three signals.
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postoje tri znaka.
02:27
In reverse order: your genetics -- not as important as you'd like to think,
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Obrnutim redosledom: vaša genetika - ne toliko važna, koliko volite da mislite,
02:31
so you can continue to treat your body like shit
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pa možete i dalje da se rđavo odnosite prema telu
02:33
and think, "Oh, Uncle Joe lived to 95,
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i mislite: "Ah, ujka Džo je doživeo 95,
02:35
the die have been cast."
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kocka je bačena."
02:37
It's less important than you think.
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Manje je važno nego što mislite.
02:38
Number two is lifestyle.
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Broj dva je način života.
02:40
Don't smoke, don't be obese, and prescreen --
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Ne pušite, ne budite gojazni i idite na preglede -
02:42
get rid of about two-thirds of early cancers
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rešite se dve trećine ranih karcinoma
02:45
and cardiovascular disease.
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i kardiovaskularnih bolesti.
02:47
The number one indicator or signal that you'll make it to triple digits:
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Glavni indikator ili znak da ćete doživeti stotu:
02:50
How many people do you love?
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koliko ljudi volite?
02:54
Caretaking is the security camera --
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Briga je naša bezbednosna kamera -
02:57
we call the low-resolution security camera in our brain --
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nazivamo je bezbednosnom kamerom male rezolucije u našem mozgu -
03:00
deciding whether or not you are adding value.
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odlučivanje da li dodajete vrednost.
03:02
Facebook taps into our instinctive need not only to be loved,
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Fejsbuk dotiče našu instinktivnu potrebu ne samo da budemo voljeni,
03:06
but to love others,
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vać i da volimo druge,
03:07
mostly through pictures that create empathy,
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uglavnom kroz slike koje stvaraju empatiju,
03:09
catalyze and reinforce our relationships.
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katališu i ojačavaju naše odnose.
03:12
Let's continue our journey down the torso.
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Nastavimo putovanje niz torzo.
03:15
Amazon is our consumptive gut.
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Amazon je naše potrošačko crevo.
03:18
The instinct of more is hardwired into us.
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Instinkt za obiljem je ugrađen u nas.
03:21
The penalty for too little is starvation and malnutrition.
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Kazna za veliku oskudicu je izgladnjivanje i neuhranjenost.
03:25
Open your cupboards, open your closets,
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Otvorite kredence, otvorite ormare,
03:28
you have 10 to 100x times what you need.
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imate 10 do 100 puta više nego što vam je potrebno.
03:31
Why?
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Zašto?
03:32
Because the penalty for too little is much greater
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Jer je kazna za premalo mnogo veća
03:35
than the penalty for too much.
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nego kazna za previše.
03:37
So "more for less" is a business strategy that never goes out of style.
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Dakle, "više za manje" je poslovna strategija koja ne zastareva.
03:41
It's the strategy of China,
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To je strategija Kine,
03:42
it's a the strategy of Walmart,
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to je strategija Volmarta,
03:44
and now it's the strategy of the most successful company in the world,
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a trenutno je to strategija najuspešnije firme na svetu,
03:47
Amazon.
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Amazona.
03:48
You get more for less into your gut;
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Dobijate više za manje u vaš stomak;
03:51
digest, send it to your muscular and skeletal system of consumption.
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varite i šaljete to vašem mišićnom i skeletnom sistemu konzumacije.
03:54
Moving further,
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Idemo dalje,
03:56
once we know we will survive, the basic instinct,
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čim smo svesni da ćemo preživeti, osnovni instinkt,
04:00
we move to the second most powerful instinct,
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pomeramo se ka drugom najsnažnijem instinktu,
04:02
and that is to spread and select the strongest, smartest and fastest seed
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a to je širenje i biranje najsnažnijeg, najpametnijeg i najbržeg semena
04:07
to the four corners of the earth,
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na sve četiri strane sveta
04:09
or pick the best seed.
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ili biranje najboljeg semena.
04:11
This is not a timepiece.
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Ne radi se o časovniku.
04:13
I haven't wound it in five years.
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Nisam ga navio za pet godina.
04:15
It's my vain attempt to say to people,
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To je moj tašti pokušaj da saopštim ljudima:
04:17
"If you mate with me, your children are more likely to survive
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"Ako se parite sa mnom, vaša deca imaju više izgleda da prežive
04:20
than if you mate with someone wearing a Swatch watch."
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nego ako se parite s nekim ko nosi sat Svoč."
04:23
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:25
The key to business is tapping into the irrational organs.
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Za poslovanje je ključno da dotaknete iracionalne organe.
04:29
"Irrational" is Harvard Business School's and New York Business School's term
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"Iracionalno" je termin u Harvardovoj i Njujorškoj poslovnoj školi
04:33
for fat profit margins and shareholder value.
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za masne marže prihodovanja i akcionarske vrednosti.
04:36
"High-caloric paste for your children."
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"Visokokalorična pasta za vašu decu."
04:39
No?
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Ne?
04:40
You love your choosy mom.
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Volite svoju izbirljivu majku.
04:42
Why choosy moms choose Jif: you love your kids more.
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Zašto izbirljive majke biraju Džif: više volite svoju decu.
04:46
The greatest algorithm for shareholder creation from World War II
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Najbolji algoritam stvoren od strane akcionara, od II svetskog rata
04:49
to the advent of Google
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do pojave Gugla,
04:50
was taking an average product and appealing to people's hearts.
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je bio uzimanje prosečnog proizvoda i obraćanje ljudskim srcima.
04:53
You're a better a mom, a better person, a better patriot
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Vi ste bolja majka, bolja osoba, bolji patriota,
04:56
if you buy this average soap versus this average soap.
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ako kupite ovaj prosečni sapun naspram ovog prosečnog sapuna.
05:00
Now, the number one algorithm for shareholder value isn't technology.
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Sad, algoritam broj jedan za akcionarsku vrednost nije tehnologija.
05:03
Look at the Forbes 400.
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Pogledajte Forbsovih 400.
05:05
Take out inherited wealth, take out finance.
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Oduzmite nasleđeno bogatstvo, oduzmite finansije.
05:07
The number one source of wealth creation:
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Izvor stvaranja bogatstva broj jedan je:
05:09
appealing to your reproductive organs.
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obraćanje vašim reproduktivnim organima.
05:11
The Lauders; the number one wealthiest man in Europe, LVMH.
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Lauders; najimućniji čovek u Evropi, LVMH.
05:16
Numbers two and three: H&M and Inditex.
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Na mestu broj dva i tri: H&M i Inditeks.
05:19
You want to target the most irrational organs for shareholder value.
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Želite da ciljate najiracionalnije organe radi akcionarske vrednosti.
05:25
As a result, these four companies -- Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google --
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Kao posledica toga, ove četiri firme - Epl, Amazon, Fejsbuk i Gugl -
05:29
have disarticulated who we are.
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su raščlanili to što smo.
05:30
God, love, consumption, sex.
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Bog, ljubav, potrošnja, seks.
05:33
The proportion in your approach to those things is who you are,
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Proporcija u vašem pristupu svemu ovome vas čini onim što jeste,
05:36
and they have reassembled who we are in the form of for-profit companies.
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a oni su nanovo sklopili to ko smo u obliku profitnih firmi.
05:40
At the end of the Great Recession,
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Na kraju Velike recesije,
05:42
the market capitalization of these companies was equivalent
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tržišna kapitalizacija ovih firmi je bila ravna
05:45
to the GDP of Niger.
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BDP-u Nigerije.
05:46
Now it is equivalent to the GDP of India,
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Sada je ravna BDP-u Indije,
05:49
having blown past Russia and Canada in '13 and '14.
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ostavivši za sobom Rusiju i Kanadu u '13. i '14.
05:52
There are only five nations
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Postoji samo pet nacija
05:54
that have a GDP greater than the combined market capitalization
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koje imaju BDP veći od zajedničke tržišne kapitalizacije
05:57
of these four firms.
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ove četiri firme.
05:59
Something is happening, though.
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Nešto se ipak dešava.
06:01
The conversation just a year ago was, which CEO was more Jesus-like?
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Pre samo godinu dana vodio se razgovor koji izvršni direktor više liči na Isusa.
06:06
Who was running for president?
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Ko će da se kandiduje za predsednika?
06:08
Now the worm has turned.
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Sada su se stvari preokrenule.
06:10
Everything they're doing is bothering us.
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Sve što rade nama smeta.
06:12
We're worried they're tax avoiders.
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Brinemo se da izbegavaju poreze.
06:14
Walmart, since the Great Recession, has paid 64 billion dollars
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Volmart je od Velike recesije platio 64 milijarde dolara
06:17
in corporate income tax;
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u korporativnom porezu na dohodak;
06:19
Amazon has paid 1.4.
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Amazon je platio 1,4.
06:21
How do we pay our firefighters, our soldiers and our social workers
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Kako da plaćamo vatrogasce, naše vojnike i naše socijalne radnike,
06:25
if the most successful companies in the world don't pay their fair share?
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ako najuspešnije firme na svetu ne plaćaju svoj deo?
06:28
Pretty easy.
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Prilično lako.
06:30
That means the less successful companies have to pay
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To znači da manje uspešne firme moraju da plate
06:32
more than their fair share.
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više nego što ih sleduje.
06:33
Alexa, is this a good thing?
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Aleksa, da li je ovo dobro?
06:35
This is despite that fact --
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Ovo je uprkos činjenici -
06:37
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:38
This is despite the fact
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Ovo je uprkos činjenici
06:41
that Amazon has added the entire market capitalization of Walmart
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da je Amazon dodao čitavu tržišnu kapitalizaciju Volmarta
06:45
to its market cap in the last 19 months.
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svojoj tržišnoj kapitalizaciji u poslednjih 19 meseci.
06:52
Whose fault is it? It's our fault.
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Čija je to krivica? Kirivica je naša.
06:54
We're electing regulators who don't have the backbone
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Biramo regulatore koji nemaju petlju
06:58
to actually go after these companies.
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da se zapravo ustreme na ove firme.
07:00
Facebook lies to EU regulators
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Fejsbuk laže EU regulatorima
07:02
and says, "It would be impossible for us to share the data
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i kaže: "Nemoguće nam je da delimo podatke
07:06
between our core platform and our proposed acquisition of WhatsApp.
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između naše glavne platforme i predloženog pripajanja Votsapa.
07:09
Approve the merger."
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Odobrite pripajanje."
07:11
They approve the merger and then -- spoiler alert! -- they figure it out.
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Odobrili su pripajanje i onda - spojler upozorenje! - ovi su ih provalili.
07:15
And the EU says, "I feel lied to.
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Pa je EU rekla: "Osećamo da nas lažete.
07:16
We're fining you 120 [million] dollars,"
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Kaznićemo vas sa 120 milijardi dolara",
07:20
about .6 percent of the acquisition price of 19 billion dollars.
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oko 0.6 procenata stečene cene od 19 milijardi dolara.
07:24
If Mark Zuckerberg could take out an insurance policy
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Da je Mark Zakerberg mogao da izvadi polisu osiguranja
07:27
that the acquisition would go through for .6 percent,
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da će pripajanje proći za 0.6 procenata,
07:29
wouldn't he do it?
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zar to ne bi uradio?
07:31
Anticompetitive behavior.
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Nekonkurentno ponašanje.
07:33
A two-and-a-half-billion-dollar fine,
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Dve i po milijarde dolara kazne,
07:35
three billion of the cash flow,
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tri milijarde protoka novca,
07:38
three percent of the cash on Google's balance sheet.
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tri procenta novca na Guglovom završnom računu.
07:41
We are telling these companies, "The smart thing to do,
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Govorimo ovim firmama: "Pametna stvar,
07:45
the shareholder-driven thing to do,
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akcionarski isplativa stvar
07:47
is to lie and to cheat."
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je da lažete i varate."
07:49
We are issuing 25-cent parking tickets
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Dajemo kazne od 25 centi za parking
07:53
on a meter that costs 100 dollars an hour.
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na brojilu koje košta 100 dolara na sat.
07:56
The smart thing to do is lie.
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Pametno je lagati.
07:57
Job destruction!
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Uništavanje poslova!
07:59
Amazon only needs one person for two at Macy's.
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Amazonu je potrebna jedna osoba za dve u Macy's.
08:02
If they grow their business 20 billion dollars this year, which they will,
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Ako im posao poraste za 20 milijardi ove godine, a hoće,
08:06
we will lose 53,000 cashiers and clerks.
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izgubićemo 53.000 kasira i službenika.
08:08
This is nothing unusual;
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Nije to ništa neobično;
08:09
this has happened all through our economy,
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ovo se stalno dešava u ekonomiji,
08:12
we've just never seen companies this good at it.
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ali prvi put vidimo firme kojima ovako dobro ide.
08:14
That's one Yankee Stadium of workers.
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To je jedan Jenkijev stadion radnika.
08:16
It's even worse in media.
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Još je gore u medijima.
08:18
If Facebook and Google grow their businesses
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Ako Fejsbuk i Gugl prošire svoj posao
08:20
22 billion dollars this year, which they will,
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za 22 milijarde dolara ove godine, a hoće,
08:22
we're going to lose approximately 150,000 creative directors,
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izgubićemo otprilike 150.000 kreativnih direktora,
08:26
planners and copywriters.
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planera i kopirajtera.
08:28
Or we can fill up two-and-a-half Yankee Stadiums
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Ili možemo da ispunimo dva i po Jenkijeva stadiona
08:30
and say, "You are out of work, courtesy of Amazon."
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i kažemo: "Otpušteni ste ljubaznošću Amazona."
08:34
We now get the majority of our news from our social media feeds,
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Sada dobijamo većinu vesti iz objava na društvenim medijima,
08:37
and the majority of our news coming off of social media feeds is ...
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a većina naših vesti koje stižu sa društvenih medija su...
08:41
fake news.
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lažne vesti.
08:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:44
I am not allowed to be political or use curse words,
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Nije mi dozvoljeno da budem političan ili koristim psovke
08:48
or talk about religion in class,
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ili da govorim o religiji na času,
08:49
so I can definitely not say,
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pa definitivno ne mogu da kažem:
08:53
"Zuckerberg has become Putin's bitch."
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"Zakerberg je postao Putinov potrčko."
08:56
I definitely cannot say that.
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Definitivno ne mogu to da kažem.
08:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:59
Their defense:
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Njihova odbrana:
09:00
"Facebook is not a media company; it's a technology company."
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"Fejsbuk nije medijska firma; radi se o tehnološkoj firmi."
09:03
You create original content,
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Stvarate originalni sadržaj,
09:05
you pay sports leagues to give you original content,
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plaćate sportskim ligama da vam dostavljaju originalni sadržaj,
09:08
you run advertising against it -- boom! -- you're a media company.
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ubacujete reklame na to - bum! - vi jeste medijska firma.
09:11
Just in the last few days,
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Samo u poslednjih nekoliko dana,
09:13
Sheryl Sandberg has repeated this lie, that "We are not a media company."
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Šeril Sendberg je ponovila ovu laž da: "Mi nismo medijska firma."
09:17
Facebook has openly embraced the margins of celebrity
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Fejsbuk je otvoreno prigrlio marže poznate ličnosti
09:21
and the influence of a media company
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i uticaj medijske firme,
09:23
yet seems to be allergic to the responsibilities
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a ipak se čini alergičnim na odgovornosti
09:27
of a media company.
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medijske firme.
09:29
Imagine McDonald's.
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Zamislite Mekdonalds.
09:31
We find 80 percent of their beef is fake,
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Otkrijemo da je 80 procenata njihove govedine lažno
09:33
and it's giving us encephalitis,
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i da nam uzrokuje encefalitis,
09:35
and we're making terrible decisions.
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i da donosimo grozne odluke.
09:37
And we say, "McDonald's, we're pissed off!"
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I kažemo: "Mekdonaldse, besni smo!"
09:40
And they say, "Wait, wait --
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A oni kažu: "Čekajte, čekajte -
09:43
we're not a fast-food restaurant,
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mi nismo restoran brze hrane,
09:45
we're a fast-food platform."
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mi smo platforma brze hrane."
09:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:50
These companies and CEOs wrap themselves
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Ove firme i izvršni direktori se ušuškavaju
09:52
in a neon-blue pink rainbow and blue blanket
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u neonskoplavu rozu dugu i plavo ćebe
09:56
to create an illusionist trick from their behavior each day,
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kako bi svakodnevno svojim ponašanjem izvodili trik iluzioniste,
09:59
which is more indicative of the spawn of Darth Vader and Ayn Rand.
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a ono je priličnije potomku Darta Vejdera i Ejn Rand.
10:04
Why? Because we as progressives are seen as nice but weak.
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Zašto? Jer nas progresivce vide kao fine, ali slabe.
10:09
If Sheryl Sandberg had written a book on gun rights
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Da je Šeril Sandberg napisala knjigu o pravu na oružje
10:12
or on the pro-life movement,
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ili za pokret protiv abortusa,
10:14
would they be flying Sheryl to Cannes?
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da li bi Šeril pozivali u Kan?
10:17
No.
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Ne.
I ne sumnjam ja u njihove progresivne vrednosti,
10:19
And I'm not doubting their progressive values,
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10:21
but it foots to shareholder value,
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ali doprinosi akcionarskoj vrednosti
10:23
because we as progressives are seen as weak.
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jer nas progresivce gledaju kao slabiće.
10:25
They're so nice -- remember Microsoft?
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Tako su fini - sećate se Majkrosofta?
10:27
They didn't seem as nice,
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Nisu se činili finim,
10:29
and regulators stepped in much earlier than the regulators now,
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te su regulatori znatno ranije ušetali nego današnji regulatori,
10:33
who would never step in on those nice, nice people.
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koji nikad ne bi nagazili na te fine, fine ljude.
10:37
I'm about to get on a plane tonight,
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Večeras ću da se ukrcam na avion
10:39
and I'm going to have a guy named Roy from TSA molest me.
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i maltretiraće me lik iz obezbeđenja po imenu Roj.
10:41
If I am suspected of a DUI on the way home,
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Ako posumnjaju da sam vozio pijan na putu do kuće,
10:45
I can have blood taken from my person.
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mogu da mi uzmu krv.
10:48
But wait! Don't tap into the iPhone --
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Ali čekajte! Ne dirajte mi Ajfon -
10:51
it's sacred.
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on je svetinja.
10:53
This is our new cross.
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Ovo je naš novi krst.
10:54
It shouldn't be the iPhone X,
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Ne bi trebalo da se zove Ajfon iks,
10:56
it should be called the "iPhone Cross."
239
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trebalo bi da se zove "Ajfon krst."
10:58
We have our religion; it's Apple.
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Imamo religiju; zove se Epl.
11:00
Our Jesus Christ is Steve Jobs,
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Naš Isus Hrist je Stiv Džobs,
11:02
and we've decided this is holier than our person, our house
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3286
i odlučili smo da je ovo svetije od nas lično, od naše kuće
11:05
or our computer.
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ili našeg kompjutera.
11:06
We have become totally out of control
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Potpuno smo van kontrole
11:09
with the gross idolatry of innovation and of youth.
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zbog odvratne idolatrije inovacije i mladosti.
11:13
We no longer worship at the altar of character,
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Više se ne molimo na oltaru karaktera,
11:15
of kindness,
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dobrote,
11:16
but of innovation and people who create shareholder value.
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već inovacije i ljudi koji stvaraju akcionarsku vrednost.
11:20
Amazon has become so powerful in the marketplace,
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Amazon je postao tako moćan na tržištu
11:23
it can conduct Jedi mind tricks.
250
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1562
da može izvoditi džedajske umne trikove.
11:24
It can begin damaging other industries just by looking at them.
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Može početi da oštećuje druge industrije samo gledajući u njih.
11:27
Nike announces they're distributing on Amazon, their stock goes up,
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3164
Najki najavi plasiranje robe preko Amazona, njihove deonice skaču,
11:31
every other footwear stock goes down.
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deonice ostalih proizvođača obuće padaju.
11:33
When Amazon stock goes up, the rest of retail stocks go down,
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Kada deonice Amazona skaču, ostalim preprodavcima padaju
11:36
because they assume what's good for Amazon is bad for everybody else.
255
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3309
jer se pretpostavlja da ono što je dobro za Amazon, loše je za ostale.
11:39
They cut the cost on salmon 33 percent when they acquired Whole Foods.
256
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4369
Snizili su cenu lososa za 33 procenta nakon što su pripojili Whole Foods.
11:43
In between the time they announced the acquisition of Whole Foods
257
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Između vremena kada su najavili pripajanje Whole Foods-a
11:46
and when it closed,
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i kada je završeno,
11:48
Kroger, the largest pure-play grocer in America,
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Kroger, najveći bakalin u Americi
11:50
shed a third of its value,
260
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1735
je izgubio trećinu vrednosti
11:52
because Amazon purchased a grocer one-eleventh the size of Kroger.
261
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jer je Amazon otkupio bakalina koji je jedna jedanaestina Krogera.
11:59
I got very lucky.
262
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1228
Posrećilo mi se.
12:00
I predicted the acquisition of Whole Foods by Amazon
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3417
Predvideo sam pripajanje Whole Foods-a od strane Amazona
12:03
the week before it happened.
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1344
nedelju ranije.
12:05
This is me boasting; I said this publicly in the media.
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Ovo se ja hvališem; Saopštio sam ovo javno u medijima.
12:07
This was the largest acquisition in their history,
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Ovo je bilo najveće pripajanje u njihovoj istoriji,
12:10
they'd never made an acquisition over a billion,
267
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2335
nikada nisu imali pripajanje od preko milijardu,
12:12
and people asked, "How did you know this?"
268
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2118
pa su se ljudi pitali: "Kako si to znao?"
12:14
So I'm letting this very impressive audience in on the secret.
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3219
Pa ću ovoj veoma impresivnoj publici da odam tajnu.
12:18
How did I know this?
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1195
Kako sam znao za ovo?
12:19
I'm going to tell you how I knew.
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1970
Reći ću vam kako sam znao.
12:21
I bark at Alexa all day long
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Dovikujem se s Aleksom po čitavi dan
12:24
and try to figure out what's going on.
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i pokušavam da provalim šta se dešava.
12:26
(Scott Galloway) Alexa, buy whole milk.
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(Skot Galovej) Aleksa, kupi punomasno mleko.
12:29
(Alexa) I couldn't find anything for whole milk,
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(Aleksa) Nisam mogla da nađem punomasno mleko,
12:31
so I've added whole milk to your shopping list.
276
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pa sam dodala punomasno mleko na tvoj spisak za kupovinu.
12:34
SG: Then I asked,
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1286
SG: Potom sam upitao,
12:35
(SG) Alexa, buy organic foods.
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3142
(SG) Aleksa, kupi organsku hranu.
12:38
(Alexa) The top search result for organic food
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(Aleksa) Najpretraživaniji rezultat za organsku hranu
12:41
is Plum Organics baby food, banana and pumpkin,
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2973
je hrana za bebe Plum Organics, banana i bundeva,
12:44
12-pack of four ounces each.
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2017
12 pakovanja, svako po 113 grama.
12:46
It's 15 dollars total.
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1623
Ukupno je 15 dolara.
12:48
Would you like to buy it?
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1193
Da li želiš to da kupiš?
12:49
SG: And then, as often happens at my age,
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1999
SG: I onda, kao što biva u mojim godinama,
12:51
I got confused.
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zbunio sam se.
12:52
(SG) Alexa, buy whole foods.
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2790
(SG) Aleksa, kupi gotovu hranu (whole foods).
12:56
(Alexa) I have purchased the outstanding stock of Whole Foods Incorporated
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3534
(Aleksa) Kupila sam izvanredne deonice Whole Foods Incorporated-a
12:59
at 42 dollars per share.
288
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1789
42 dolara po deonici.
13:01
I have charged 13.7 billion to your American Express card.
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3861
Naplatila sam 13,7 milijardi na tvoju Amerikan ekspres karticu.
13:05
(Laughter)
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1380
(Smeh)
13:07
SG: I thought that'd be funnier.
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1607
SG: Mislio sam da će da bude smešnije.
13:09
(Laughter)
292
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1498
(Smeh)
13:11
We've personified these companies,
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1683
Personifikovali smo ove firme,
13:12
and just as when you're really angry over every little thing someone does
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3435
i baš kao kad ste krajnje ljuti na svaku sitnicu koju neko radi
13:16
in your life and relationships,
295
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1495
u vašem životu i odnosima,
13:17
you've got to ask yourself,
296
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1304
morate da se zapitate:
13:19
"What's going on here? Why are we so disappointed in technology?"
297
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3050
"Šta se ovde dešava? Zašto smo toliko razočarani u tehnologiju?"
13:22
I believe it's because the ratio of one-percent pursuit
298
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2679
Verujem da je tako zbog odnosa gde jedan procenat juri
13:24
of shareholder value
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1167
akcionarsku vrednost,
13:26
and 99 percent the betterment of humanity
300
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2541
a 99 procenata unapređenje čovečanstva
13:28
that technology used to play
301
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1385
koju je tehnologija nekad imala,
13:29
has been flipped,
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1155
sad je preokrenut,
13:31
and now we're totally focused on shareholder value instead of humanity.
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3367
i sad smo potpuno usredsređeni na akcionarsku vrednost, a ne na čovečanstvo.
13:34
One hundred thousand people came together for the Manhattan Project
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3279
Sto hiljada ljudi se okupilo oko Projekta Menhetn
13:37
and literally saved the world.
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1461
i bukvalno su spasili svet.
13:39
Technology saved the world.
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1311
Tehnologija je spasila svet.
13:40
My mother was a four-year-old Jew living in London at the outset of the war.
307
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3687
Majka mi je bila četvorogodišnja Jevrejka koja je početkom rata živela u Londonu.
13:44
If we had not won the footrace towards splitting the atom,
308
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3105
Da nismo dobili u trci cepanja atoma,
13:47
would she have survived?
309
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1688
da li bi preživela?
13:49
It's unlikely.
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1163
Nije izvesno.
13:50
Twenty-five years later,
311
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1307
Dvadeset pet godina kasnije,
13:52
the most impressive accomplishment, arguably, ever in all of humankind:
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4433
najimpresivnije dostignuće, verovatno, ikada u čitavom čovečanstvu:
13:56
put a man on the moon.
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1152
odvesti čoveka na mesec.
13:57
Four hundred thirty thousand Canadians, British and Americans came together,
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3624
Sastalo se četiri stotine trideset Kanađana, Britanaca i Amerikanca,
14:01
again, with very basic technology,
315
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1831
opet, sa krajnje prostom tehnologijom
14:03
and put a man on the moon.
316
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1318
i odveli su čoveka na mesec.
14:04
Now we have the 700,000 best and brightest,
317
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3607
Sad imamo 700.000 najboljih i najbistrijih,
14:08
and these are the best and brightest from the four corners of the earth.
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3445
a to su nabolji i najbistriji sa svih krajeva planete.
14:11
They are literally playing with lasers relative to slingshots,
319
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4080
Bukvalno se igraju laserima veličine praćki,
14:15
relative to the squirt gun.
320
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1287
veličine vodenog pištolja.
14:17
They have the GDP of India to work at.
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2272
Imaju BDP Indije da s njim rade.
14:19
And after studying these companies for 10 years,
322
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2530
A nakon 10 godina izučavanja ovih firm,
14:22
I know what their mission is.
323
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1656
znam koja im je misija.
14:23
Is it to organize the world's information?
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2624
Da li je to sređivanje svetskih informacija?
14:26
Is it to connect us?
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1505
Da li je to povezivanje?
14:27
Is it to create greater comity of man?
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2924
Da li je to stvaranje značajnijeg čovečanskog komiteta?
14:30
It isn't.
327
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1162
Nije.
14:32
I know why we have brought together --
328
872019
1896
Znam zašto smo se okupili -
14:33
I know that the greatest collection of IQ capital and creativity,
329
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4309
znam da je najznačajniji zbornik kapitala inteligencije i kreativnosti,
14:38
that their sole mission is:
330
878272
1854
njihova jedina misija je:
14:40
to sell another fucking Nissan.
331
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2130
da prodaju još jedan jebeni nisan.
14:42
My name is Scott Galloway, I teach at NYU, and I appreciate your time.
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Moje ime je Skot Galovej, predajem na Njujorškom univerzitetu i hvala na pažnji.
14:46
(Applause)
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4343
(Aplauz)
14:54
Chris Anderson: Not planned,
334
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1475
Kris Anderson: Nije planirano,
14:56
but you prompted some questions in me, Scott.
335
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2960
ali naveo si me na neka pitanja, Skot.
14:59
(Laughter)
336
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1071
(Smeh)
15:00
That was a spectacular rant.
337
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2308
To je bila spektakularna tirada.
15:02
SG: Is this like Letterman?
338
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1365
SG: Je li ovo poput Letermana?
15:03
When you do well, he calls you onto the couch?
339
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2916
Kad ste dobri, pozove vas na kauč?
15:06
CA: No, no, you're going to the heart of the conversation right now.
340
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3667
KA: Ne, ne, zadireš u srž trenutne diskusije.
15:10
Everyone's aware that after years of worshipping Silicon Valley,
341
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6134
Svi su svesni da nakon godina obožavanja Silicijumske doline,
15:16
suddenly the worm has turned
342
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1854
iznenada su se stvari preokrenule
15:18
and in such a big way.
343
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1534
i to drastično.
15:20
To some people here, it will just feel like you're piling on,
344
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3405
Neki će ovde prosto imati utisak da se nadovezuješ,
15:23
you're kicking the kids who've already been kicked to pieces anyway.
345
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3390
da šutiraš klince koji su već i tako razneseni na komade.
15:27
Don't you feel any empathy for them at all?
346
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2365
Zar uopšte nemaš saosećanja za njih?
15:29
SG: None whatsoever.
347
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1397
SG: Ni najmanje.
15:31
Look, this is the issue:
348
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1947
Pazi, evo o čemu se radi:
15:33
it's not their fault, it's our fault.
349
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1813
nije njihova krivica, naša je.
15:35
They're for-profit companies.
350
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2116
To su profitne kompanije.
15:37
They're not concerned with the condition of our souls.
351
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2547
Ne mare za stanje naših duša.
15:40
They're not going to take care of us when we get older.
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Neće se brinuti za nas kad ostarimo.
15:42
We have set up a society that values shareholder value over everything,
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Izgradili smo društvo koje ceni akcionarsku vredost iznad svega ostalog,
15:46
and they're doing what they're supposed to be doing.
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a oni rade ono što i treba da rade.
15:49
But we need to elect people,
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Ali moramo da biramo ljude,
15:50
and we need to force ourselves to force them
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i moramo da nateramo sebe da nateraju njih
15:52
to be subject to the same scrutiny
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da budu predmet jednakog nadzora
15:54
that the rest of business endures, full stop.
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kao i ostale firme, i tačka.
15:56
CA: There's another narrative
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KA: To je drugi narativ
15:58
that is arguably equally consistent with the facts,
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koji je verovatno jednako u skladu sa činjenicama,
16:01
which is that there actually is good intent in much of the leadership --
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a to je da zapravo postoji dobra namera kod većine vođa -
16:08
I won't say everyone, necessarily --
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neću reći nužno kod svih -
16:10
many of the employees.
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mnogih zaposlenih.
16:12
We all know people who work in those companies,
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Svi znamo ljude koji rade u ovim firmama
16:15
and they still are pretty convincing that their mission is to --
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i koji su i dalje prilično ubeđeni da je njihova misija da -
16:18
so, the alternative narrative is that there have been
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dakle, alternativni narativ je da je ovde došlo
16:22
unintended consequences here,
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do neželjenih posledica,
16:24
that the technologies that we're unleashing,
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da je tehnologija koju stvaramo,
16:26
the algorithms, that we're attempting to personalize the internet, for example,
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algoritmi, naš pokušaj personalizovanja interneta, na primer,
16:31
have A, resulted in weird effects like filter bubbles
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da su pod A, rezultirali čudnim efektima, poput filterskih mehura,
16:37
that we weren't expecting;
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koje nismo očekivali:
16:38
and B, made themselves vulnerable to weird things like --
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i pod B, postali su podložni čudnim stvarima poput -
16:41
oh, I don't know, Russian hackers creating accounts
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oh, ne znam, ruskih hakera koji otvaraju naloge
16:44
and doing things that we didn't expect.
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i rade stvari koje nismo očekivali.
16:46
Isn't the unintended consequence a possibility here?
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Da li su neželjene posledice mogućnost ovde?
16:51
SG: I don't think --
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SG: Ne verujem -
16:52
I'm pretty sure, statistically,
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prilično sam siguran, statistički,
16:54
they're no less or better people than any other organization
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da oni nisu gori ili bolji ljudi od drugih organizacija
16:57
that has 100,000 or more people.
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koje imaju 100.000 i više ljudi.
16:58
I don't think they're bad people.
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Ne mislim da su loši ljudi.
17:00
As a matter of fact, I would argue
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Zapravo bih tvrdio
da tu ima mnogo građanski orijentisanog, pristojnog predvodništva.
17:02
that there's a lot of very civic-minded, decent leadership.
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17:05
But this is the issue:
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Ali evo šta je problem:
17:06
when you control 90 percent points of share in a market, search,
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kada kontrolišete 90 procenata deonica na tržištu, 90% pretraga,
17:10
that is now bigger than the entire advertising market of any nation,
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a to je trenutno više od sveukupnog reklamnog tržišta bilo koje nacije,
17:14
and you're primarily compensated and trying to develop economic security
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i prvenstveno kompenzujete i pokušavate da ostvarite ekonomsku sigurnost
17:17
for you and the families of your employees,
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za vas i porodice vaših zaposlenih,
17:19
to increase that market share,
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kako biste povećali udeo u tržištu,
17:21
you can't help but leverage all the power at your disposal.
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ne možete a da ne koristite svu moć koja vam je na raspolaganju.
17:24
And that is the basis for regulation,
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A to je osnova za regulaciju,
17:26
and it's the basis for the truism throughout history
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i na tome se zasniva drevna izreka
17:28
that power corrupts.
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da moć kvari.
17:30
They're not bad people;
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Nisu oni loši ljudi;
17:31
we've just let them get out of control.
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samo smo im dopustili da se otrgnu kontroli.
17:34
CA: So maybe the case is slightly overstated?
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KA: Dakle, možda je slučaj blago prenaglašen?
17:38
I know at least a bit --
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Znam bar malo -
17:40
Larry Page, for example, Jeff Bezos --
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Lari Pejdž, na primer, Džef Bezos -
17:42
I don't actually believe they wake up thinking,
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zapravo ne verujem da se bude, misleći:
17:45
"I've got to sell a fucking Nissan."
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"Moram da prodam jebeni nisan."
17:47
I don't think they think that.
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Ne mislim da tako razmišljaju.
17:48
I think they are trying to build something cool, and are probably,
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Mislim da pokušavaju da izgrade nešto sjajno i, verovatno,
17:54
in moments of reflection,
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u momentima razmišljanja,
17:55
as horrified that some of the things that have happened as we might be.
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jednako su prestravljeni nekim stvarima koje su se desile, baš kao i mi.
17:59
So is there a different way of framing this,
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Dakle, postoji li drugačiji način da se ovo formuliše,
18:04
to say that when your model is advertising,
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takoreći da kada reklamirate svoj model,
18:09
that there are dangers there that you have to take on more explicitly?
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da tu postoje opasnosti koje morate eksplicitnije da shvatite?
18:14
SG: I think it's very difficult to set an organization up as we do,
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SG: Mislim da je veoma teško izgraditi organizaciju nalik našim,
18:19
to pursue shareholder value above all else.
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da juri akcionarsku vrednost iznad svega drugog.
18:21
They're not non-profits.
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Nisu to neprofitne organizacije.
18:22
The reason people go to work there is they want to create economic security
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Razlog zašto ljudi tamo rade je što žele da stvore ekonomsku sigurnost
18:26
for them and their families,
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za sebe i svoju porodicu,
18:27
mostly first and foremost.
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iznad svega drugog.
18:29
And when you get to a point where you control so much economic power,
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A kada stignete do tačke gde upravljate tolikom ekonomskom moći,
18:32
you use all the weapons at your disposal.
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koristite sve raspoloživo oružje.
18:34
I don't think they're bad people,
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Ne mislim da su loši ljudi,
18:36
but I think the role of government and the role of us as consumers
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ali mislim da je uloga vlade i uloga nas kao potrošača,
18:39
and people who elect our officials
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i ljudi koji biraju naše zvaničnike
18:41
is to ensure that there are some checks here.
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ta da se postaramo da tu bude nekih regulativa.
18:43
And we have given them the mother of all hall passes
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A njima smo dali majku svih propusnica
18:46
because we find them just so fascinating.
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jer su nam tako očaravajući.
18:48
CA: Scott, eloquently put, spectacularly put.
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KA: Skote, rečito iskazano, spektakularno iskazano.
18:51
Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Larry Page, Tim Cook, if you're watching,
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Mark Zakerberg, Džef Bezos, Lari Pejdž, Tim Kuk, ako gledate,
18:56
you're welcome to come and make the counterargument as well.
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dobrodošli ste da dođete i iznesete protivargument takođe.
18:59
Scott, thank you so much.
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Skote, mnogo ti hvala.
19:00
SG: Thanks very much.
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SG: Mnogo hvala.
19:02
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
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