Economic growth has stalled. Let's fix it | Dambisa Moyo

Prevodilac: Nikolina Ajdukovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

Our ability to create and sustain economic growth

Naša sposobnost da stvorimo i očuvamo ekonomski razvoj

is the defining challenge of our time.

je definišući izazov našeg vremena.

Of course there are other challenges --

Naravno, postoje i drugi izazovi,

health care, disease burdens and pandemics,

zdravstvo, previše bolesti i epidemije,

environmental challenges

ekološki izazovi

and, of course, radicalized terrorism.

i naravno, radikalizovani terorizam.

However,

Ipak,

to the extent that we can actually solve the economic growth challenge,

da zaista možemo da rešimo izazov ekonomskog razvoja,

it will take us a long way

pred nama je jako dug put

to solving the challenges that I've just elucidated.

da rešimo izazove koje smo pomenuli.

More importantly,

Najvažnije,

unless and until we solve economic growth

ukoliko i dok ne rešimo ekonomski razvoj

and create sustainable, long-term economic growth,

i stvorimo održivi, dugoročni ekonomski razvoj

we'll be unable to address

nećemo moći da ukažemo

the seemingly intractable challenges that continue to pervade the globe today,

na najteže izazove koji nastavljaju da prožimaju svet,

whether it's health care, education or economic development.

bilo to zdravstvo, obrazovanje ili ekonomski razvoj.

The fundamental question is this:

Osnovno pitanje je sledeće:

How are we going to create economic growth

kako ćemo da stvorimo ekonomski razvoj

in advanced and developed economies like the United States and across Europe

u naprednim i ravijenim ekonomijama poput Sjedinjenih Država i Evrope

at a time when they continue to struggle

u vremenu gde se oni bore

to create economic growth after the financial crisis?

da stvore ekonomski razvoj posle finansijske krize?

They continue to underperform

Oni nastavljaju da posustaju

and to see an erosion in the three key drivers of economic growth:

i vide erozije u tri ključne stvari ekonomskog razvoja:

capital, labor and productivity.

kapitalu, radu i produktivnosti.

In particular,

Posebno,

these developed economies continue to see debts and deficits,

ove razvijene ekonomije suočavaju se sa dugovanjima i deficitima,

the decline and erosion of both the quality and quantity of labor

padom kvaliteta i količine rada

and they also see productivity stalling.

i takođe zastojem u produktivnosti.

In a similar vein,

Na sličan način,

how are we going to create economic growth in the emerging markets,

kako ćemo da stvorimo ekonomski razvoj na tržištima u razvoju,

where 90 percent of the world's population lives

gde 90% svetske populacije živi

and where, on average,

i gde, u proseku,

70 percent of the population is under the age of 25?

70% populacije ima ispod 25 godina?

In these countries,

U ovim zemljama,

it is essential that they grow at a minimum of seven percent a year

potrebno je da se oni razvijaju 7% godišnje

in order to put a dent in poverty

kako bi ostavili trag u siromaštvu

and to double per capita incomes in one generation.

i da udvostruče primanja po glavi stanovnika u jednoj generaciji.

And yet today,

A ipak, danas,

the largest emerging economies --

najveće rastuće ekonomije

countries with at least 50 million people --

zemlje sa najmanje 50 miliona ljudi,

continue to struggle to reach that seven percent magic mark.

nastavljaju da se bore kako bi dostigle tu magičnu oznaku od 7%.

Worse than that,

Još gore od toga,

countries like India, Russia, South Africa, Brazil and even China

zemlje poput Indije, Rusije, Južne Afrike, Brazila čak i Kine

are falling below that seven percent number

padaju ispod tog broja od 7%,

and, in many cases, actually regressing.

i u mnogim slučajevima, čak i nazaduju.

Economic growth matters.

Ekonomski razvoj je bitan.

With economic growth,

Sa ekonomskim razvojem,

countries and societies enter into a virtuous cycle

zemlje i društva ulaze u začarani ciklus,

of upward mobility, opportunity and improved living standards.

vertikalne mobilnosti, mogućnosti i unapređenih životnih standarda.

Without growth, countries contract and atrophy,

Bez razvoja, zemlje se grče i atrofiraju,

not just in the annals of economic statistics

ne samo u analima ekonomske statistike

but also in the meaning of life and how lives are lived.

nego i u značenjima života i kako se živi život.

Economic growth matters powerfully for the individual.

Ekonomski razvoj ima veliki uticaj za pojedinca.

If growth wanes,

Ako razvoj opada,

the risk to human progress

rizik za ljudski napredak

and the risk of political and social instability rises,

rizik za političke i socijalne nestabilnosti se uvećava,

and societies become dimmer, coarser and smaller.

društva postaju mračnija, grublja i manja.

The context matters.

Kontekst je bitan.

And countries in emerging markets

Zemlje u rastućim tržištima

do not need to grow at the same rates as developed countries.

ne treba da rastu isto kao razvijene zemlje.

Now, I know some of you in this room find this to be a risky proposition.

Neki ovde smatraju ovo riskantnim predlogom.

There are some people here

Ovde su pojedini ljudi

who will turn around and be quite disillusioned

koji će se okrenuti i postati sasvim razočarani

by what's happened around the world

onim što se dogodilo oko sveta

and basically ascribe that to economic growth.

i pripisati to ekonomskom razvoju.

You worry about the overpopulation of the planet.

Brinete o prenaseljenosti planete.

And looking at the UN's recent statistics and projections

I gledajući na statistike UN-a

that the world will have 11 billion people on the planet

da će svet imati 11 milijardi ljudi

before it plateaus in 2100,

do 2100 godine,

you're concerned about what that does to natural resources --

zabrinuti ste šta to čini prirodnim resursima,

arable land, potable water, energy and minerals.

obradivoj zemlji, pitkoj vodi, energiji i mineralima.

You are also concerned about the degradation of the environment.

Takođe ste zabrinuti o degradaciji životne sredine.

And you worry about how man,

I brinete kako je čovek,

embodied in the corporate globalist,

otelovljen u korporativnog globalistu,

has become greedy and corrupt.

postao pohlepan i pokvaren.

But I'm here to tell you today that economic growth

Ja sam ovde da vam kažem da je ekonomski razvoj

has been the backbone of changes in living standards

bio srž promene životnih standarda

of millions of people around the world.

miliona ljudi na svetu.

And more importantly,

I što je najvažnije,

it's not just economic growth that has been driven by capitalism.

nije samo ekonomski razvoj bio pokrenut kapitalizmom.

The definition of capitalism, very simply put,

Definicija kapitalizma, najprostije rečeno,

is that the factors of production,

je da su faktori produktivnosti,

such as trade and industry, capital and labor,

kao što su trgovina, industrija, kapital i rad,

are left in the hands of the private sector and not the state.

ostavljeni u rukama privatnog sektora, a ne države.

It's really essential here that we understand

Ovde je bitno da razumemo

that fundamentally the critique is not for economic growth per se

da fundamentalno, ne treba kritikovati ekonomski razvoj

but what has happened to capitalism.

već ono što se dogodilo kapitalizmu.

And to the extent that we need to create economic growth over the long term,

I kako bismo stvorili dugoročni ekonomski razvoj,

we're going to have to pursue it with a better form of economic stance.

moramo to da sledimo sa boljim ekonomskim stavom.

Economic growth needs capitalism,

Ekonomskom razvoju je potreban kapitalizam,

but it needs it to work properly.

ali mora da radi kako treba.

And as I mentioned a moment ago,

I kao što sam prethodno spomenula,

the core of the capitalist system has been defined by private actors.

srž kapitalističkog sistema je definisana privatnim učesnicima.

And even this, however, is a very simplistic dichotomy.

Čak je i ovo veoma jednostavna dihotomija.

Capitalism: good; non-capitalism: bad.

Kapitalizam je dobar, ne-kapitalizam je loš.

When in practical experience,

U praktičnom iskustvu,

capitalism is much more of a spectrum.

kapitalizam je više spektar.

And we have countries such as China,

Imamo zemlje poput Kine,

which have practiced more state capitalism,

koja je praktikovala više državnog kapitalizma

and we have countries like the Unites States

i imamo zemlje poput Sjedinjenih Država

which are more market capitalist.

koje su više tržišni kapitalisti.

Our efforts to critique the capitalist system, however,

Naši pokušaji da kritikujemo kapitalistički sistem su ipak

have tended to focus on countries like China

težili da se fokusiraju na zemlje poput Kine

that are in fact not blatantly market capitalism.

koje nisu u tržišnom kapitalizmu.

However, there is a real reason and real concern

Ipak, postoji stvarni razlog i briga

for us to now focus our attentions on purer forms of capitalism,

da obratimo pažnju na čistije forme kapitalizma,

particularly those embodied by the United States.

posebno one otelovljene od Sjedinjenih Država.

This is really important

Ovo je veoma važno,

because this type of capitalism

jer ovaj tip kapitalizma

has increasingly been afforded the critique

sve više zaslužuje kritiku

that it is now fostering corruption

da sada podstiče korupciju

and, worse still,

i još gore,

it's increasing income inequality --

povećava nejednakost prihoda -

the idea that the few are benefiting at the expense of the many.

ideja da manjina uživa na račun većine.

The two really critical questions that we need to address

Dva kritična pitanja kojima moramo da se pozabavimo,

is how can we fix capitalism

su kako možemo da popravimo kapitalizam,

so that it can help create economic growth

kako bi mogao da pomogne ekonomskom razvoju

but at the same time can help to address social ills.

ali u isto vreme da pomogne rešavanju društvenih problema.

In order to think about that framing, we have to ask ourselves,

Da bismo tako mislili, moramo da se zapitamo,

how does capitalism work today?

kako kapitalizam danas funkcioniše?

Very simplistically,

Veoma jednostavno,

capitalism is set on the basis of an individual utility maximizer --

osnova kapitalizma je povećana korisnost pojedinca -

a selfish individual who goes after what he or she wants.

sebičnog pojedinca koji ide za onim što želi.

And only after they've maximized their utility

I tek nakon što su maksimalno podmirili svoje potrebe,

do they then decide it's important

odluče da je bitno

to provide support to other social contracts.

da pruže podršku drugim socijalnim ugovorima.

Of course, in this system governments do tax,

Naravno, u ovom sistemu, vlada naplaćuje porez,

and they use part of their revenues to fund social programs,

kako bi iskoristila prihode da finansira socijalne programe,

recognizing that government's role is not just regulation

prepoznaje da uloga vlade nije samo regulativna

but also to be arbiter of social goods.

već i da je arbitar socijalnih dobara.

But nevertheless,

Ali ipak,

this framework --

ovaj okvir,

this two-stage framework --

ovaj okvir od dva stepena,

is the basis from which we must now start

je osnova onoga od čega moramo da počnemo

to think about how we can improve the capitalist model.

da razmišljamo kako možemo unaprediti kapitalizam.

I would argue that there are two sides to this challenge.

Rekla bih da postoje dve strane ovog izazova.

First of all,

Najpre,

we can draw on the right-wing policies

možemo da učimo na desničarskoj politici

to see what could be beneficial for us

da vidimo šta je delotvorno za nas

to think about how we can improve capitalism.

u razmišljanju kako da unapredimo kapitalizam.

In particular,

Posebno,

right-leaning policies

desničarska politika

have tended to focus on things like conditional transfers,

je pokušala da se fokusira na stvari poput uslovljenih transfera,

where we pay and reward people for doing the things

gde plaćamo i nagrađujemo ljude koji rade stvari

that we actually think can help enhance economic growth.

koje mi mislimo da mogu da pomognu u jačanju ekonomskog razvoja.

For example,

Na primer,

sending children to school,

kad deca idu u školu,

parents could earn money for that,

roditelji mogu da zarade novac za to,

or getting their children inoculated or immunized,

ili da njihovu decu inokulišu ili vakcinišu

parents could get paid for doing that.

roditelji mogu biti plaćeni za to.

Now, quite apart from the debate

Sad, pored debate

on whether or not we should be paying people

da li treba ili ne plaćati ljude

to do what we think they should do anyway,

za ono što bi svejedno trebalo da rade,

the fact of the matter is that pay for performance

da se zaista plaća učinak

has actually yielded some positive results

donelo je pozitivne rezultate

in places like Mexico,

u mestima poput Meksika,

in Brazil

u Brazilu

and also in pilot programs in New York.

i čak u pilot programima u Njujorku.

But there are also benefits

Takođe postoje beneficije

and significant changes underway on left-leaning policies.

i značajne promene u levičarskoj politici.

Arguments that government should expand its role and responsibility

Argumenti da vlade trebaju da prošire ulogu i odgovornost

so that it's not so narrowly defined

da ne bude usko definisana,

and that government should be much more of an arbiter

i da bi vlade trebalo da budu više arbitar

of the factors of production

faktora proizvodnje,

have become commonplace with the success of China.

postalo je uobičajeno kod uspeha u Kini.

But also we've started to have debates

Takođe smo počeli da vodimo debate

about how the role of the private sector

o tome kako uloga privatnog sektora

should move away from just being a profit motive

treba da se promeri od toga da ima motiv profita

and really be more engaged in the delivery of social programs.

na to da bude više uključen u donošenje socijalnih programa.

Things like the corporate social responsibility programs,

Stvari kao korporativni programi socijalne odgovornosti,

albeit small in scale,

iako, mali po obimu,

are moving in that right direction.

kreću se u tom pozitivnom pravcu.

Of course, left-leaning policies have also tended to blur the lines

Naravno, levičarska politika je takođe pokušala da izbledi veze između

between government, NGOs and private sector.

vlade, nevladinih organizacija i privatnog sektora.

Two very good examples of this are the 19th-century United States,

Dva odlična primera ovoga su Sjedinjene Države u 19. veku,

when the infrastructure rollout

kad je gradnja infrastrukture

was really about public-private partnerships.

bila stvar javno-privatnih partnerstava.

More recently, of course,

Nedavno, naravno,

the advent of the Internet has also proven to the world

dolazak interneta je takođe dokazao svetu

that public and private can work together for the betterment of society.

da javno i privatno mogu da rade zajedno za dobrobit društva.

My fundamental message to you is this:

Moja suštinska poruka vama je ovo:

We cannot continue to try and solve the world economic growth challenges

ne možemo da rešimo svetske izazove ekonomskog razvoja

by being dogmatic and being unnecessarily ideological.

tako što ćemo biti nepopustljivi i nepotrebno ideološki.

In order to create sustainable, long-term economic growth

Kako bismo stvorili održivi, dugoročni ekonomski razvoj

and solve the challenges and social ills that continue to plague the world today,

i rešili izazove i socijalne probleme koji nastavljaju da truju svet,

we're going to have to be more broad-minded

moraćemo da budemo otvorenijeg uma

about what might work.

u vezi s tim šta može da uspe.

Ultimately,

Na kraju,

we have to recognize that ideology is the enemy of growth.

moramo da shvatimo da je ideologija neprijatelj razvoja.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Bruno Giussani: I want to ask a couple of questions, Dambisa,

Bruno Đuzani: Hteo bih da Vam postavim par pitanja, Dambisa,

because one could react to your last sentence

jer neko bi reagovao na vašu poslednju rečenicu

by saying growth is also an ideology,

time da je razvoj takođe ideologija,

it's possibly the dominant ideology of our times.

moguće i dominantna ideologija našeg vremena.

What do you say to those who react that way?

Šta kažete onima koji tako reaguju?

DM: Well, I think that that's completely legitimate,

DM: Mislim da je to potpuno legitimno,

and I think that we're already having that discussion.

i mislim da već imamo tu diskusiju.

There's a lot of work going on around happiness

Dosta posla se obavlja u vezi sa srećom

and other metrics being used for measuring people's success

i druga metrika se koristi kako bi se izračunao uspeh ljudi

and improvements in living standards.

i poboljšanja životnih standarda.

And so I think that we should be open

Mislim da treba da budemo otvoreni

to what could deliver improvements in people's living standards

prema tome šta može da pomogne ljudskom životnom standardu

and continue to reduce poverty around the world.

i smanji siromaštvo u svetu.

BG: So you're basically pleading for rehabilitating growth,

BĐ: Znači, bukvalno molite za rehabilitaciju razvoja,

but the only way for that happen

ali jedini način da se to dogodi

without compromising the capacity of the earth,

bez ugrožavanja kapaciteta zemlje

to take us on a long journey,

da nas dugo izdržava,

is for economic growth

jeste da ekonomski razvoj

somehow to decouple from the underlying use of resources.

nekako razdvojimo od osnovnog korišćenja resursa.

Do you see that happening?

Da li to možete da vidite?

DM: Well, I think that I'm more optimistic about human ability and ingenuity.

DM: Mislim da sam optimističnija oko ljudske sposobnosti i domišljatosti.

I think if we start to constrain ourselves

Ako počnemo sebe da ograničavamo

using the finite, scarce and depleting resources

koristeći ograničene, retke i iscrpne resurse

that we know today,

koji su nam poznati,

we could get quite negative

postaćemo krajnje negativni

and quite concerned about the way the world is.

i zabrinuti o tome kakav je svet.

However, we've seen the Club of Rome,

Ipak, videli smo u Rimskom klubu

we've seen previous claims

prethodne tvrdnje

that the world would be running out of resources,

da će svet ostati bez resursa,

and it's not to argue that those things are not valid.

i ne radi se o tome da te stvari nisu tačne.

But I think, with ingenuity we could see desalination,

Sa genijalnošću, videli bismo desalinizaciju,

I think we could reinvest in energy,

možemo da reinvestiramo u energiju,

so that we can actually get better outcomes.

kako bismo dobili bolje ishode.

And so in that sense,

U tom smislu,

I'm much more optimistic about what humans can do.

optimističnija sam u vezi s tim šta ljudi mogu da učine.

BG: The thing that strikes me

BĐ: Ono što me zanima,

about your proposals for rehabilitating growth

o predlogu za rehabilitaciju razvoja

and taking a different direction

i pokretu u drugom pravcu

is that you're kind of suggesting to fix capitalism with more capitalism --

je da vi predlažete da se popravi kapitalizam sa još više kapitalizma,

with putting a price tag on good behavior as incentive

da se stavi cena na dobro ponašanje kao podsticaj

or developing a bigger role for business in social issues.

ili to da se da veća uloga firmama u socijalnim problemima.

Is that what you're suggesting?

Da li to predlažete?

DM: I'm suggesting we have to be open-minded.

DM: Predlažem da široko razmišljamo.

I think it is absolutely the case

Mislim da je zaista slučaj

that traditional models of economic growth

to da tradicionalni modeli ekonomskog razvoja

are not working the way we would like them to.

ne rade na način kako bismo mi želeli.

And I think it's no accident

Mislim da nije slučajno to da

that today the largest economy in the world, the United States,

najveća ekonomija na svetu, Sjedinjene Države,

has democracy,

ima demokratiju,

liberal democracy, as it's core political stance

liberalnu demokratiju kao srž političkog stava

and it has free market capitalism --

i ima kapitalizam slobodnog tržišta

to the extent that it is free --

do mere da je slobodno,

free market capitalism as its economic stance.

kapitalizam slobodnog tržišta kao ekonomski stav.

The second largest economy is China.

Druga najveća ekonomija je Kina.

It has deprioritized democracy

Demokratija je manjeg prioriteta

and it has state capitalism, which is a completely different model.

i ima državni kapitalizam, koji je potpuno drugačiji model.

These two countries, completely different political models

Ove dve zemlje, potpuno drugačiji politički modeli

and completely different economic models,

i potpuno drugačiji ekonomski modeli,

and yet they have the same income inequality number

ipak imaju isti broj nejednakosti prihoda

measured as a Gini coefficient.

izmerenu po koeficijentu Džini.

I think those are the debates we should have,

Mislim da takve debate treba da imamo,

because it's not clear at all

jer uopšte nije jasno

what model we should be adopting,

koji model bi trebalo da prihvatimo,

and I think there needs to be much more discourse

i mislim da treba da bude mnogo više razgovora

and much more humility about what we know and what we don't know.

i više skromnosti u vezi s tim šta znamo, a šta ne.

BG: One last question. The COP21 is going on in Paris.

BĐ: Poslednje pitanje. COP21 se održava u Parizu.

If you could send a tweet

Kada biste mogli da tvitujete

to all the heads of state and heads of delegations there,

svim šefovima države i delegacije tamo,

what would you say?

šta biste rekli?

DM: Again, I would be very much about being open-minded.

DM: Opet, govorila bih o širokom razmišljanju.

As you're aware,

Kao što ste svesni,

the issues around the environmental concerns

pitanja o zaštiti životne sredine,

have been on the agenda many times now --

bila su na dnevnom redu više puta -

in Copenhagen, '72 in Stockholm --

U Kopenhagenu, '72. u Stokholmu -

and we keep revisiting these issues

i vraćamo se na iste probleme

partly because there is not a fundamental agreement,

delom zato što nema zajedničkog dogovora,

in fact there's a schism

u stvari, postoji raskol

between what the developed countries believe and want

između toga šta razvijenje zemlje veruju i šta žele

and what emerging market countries want.

i šta zemlje sa razvojem tržišta žele.

Emerging market countries need to continue to create economic growth

Zemlje sa razvojem tržišta treba da nastave da stvaraju razvoj

so that we don't have political uncertainty in the those countries.

da ne bismo imali političku nesigurnost u tim zemljama.

Developed countries recognize

Razvijene zemlje znaju

that they have a real, important responsibility

da imaju stvarnu i bitnu odgovornost

not only just to manage their CO2 emissions

ne samo da održavaju emisije CO2

and some of the degradation that they're contributing to the world,

i neke degradacije koje pridodaju svetu,

but also as trendsetters in R&D.

ali su vodeći u istraživanju i razvoju.

And so they have to come to the table as well.

Zato oni moraju da sednu za sto takođe.

But in essence, it cannot be a situation

U suštini, to ne sme da bude situacija

where we start ascribing policies to the emerging markets

gde počnemo da pripisujemo politiku tržištima u razvoju,

without developed countries themselves

bez samih razvijenih država,

also taking quite a swipe at what they're doing

koji uzimaju udeo

both in demand and supply in developed markets.

u ponudi i potražnji tržišta u razvoju.

BG: Dambisa, thank you for coming to TED. DM: Thank you very much.

BĐ: Dambisa, hvala što ste došli na TED. DM: Hvala Vama puno.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)