Economic growth has stalled. Let's fix it | Dambisa Moyo

翻译人员: Ziqian Xu 校对人员: 易帆 余

Our ability to create and sustain economic growth

我们去创造和保持经济增长的能力，

is the defining challenge of our time.

是我们这个时代的标志性的一个挑战。

Of course there are other challenges --

当然， 不是说就没有别的挑战了，

health care, disease burdens and pandemics,

医疗保健，疾病，流行病，环境问题

environmental challenges

都是我们正在面对的挑战

and, of course, radicalized terrorism.

当然，还有激进的恐怖主义。

However,

然而，

to the extent that we can actually solve the economic growth challenge,

要解决我刚刚说到的 这些问题的难度

it will take us a long way

远远大于

to solving the challenges that I've just elucidated.

创造与维持经济增长的难度。

More importantly,

更重要的是，

unless and until we solve economic growth

除非直到我们解决

and create sustainable, long-term economic growth,

并创造了稳定、长期的经济成长，

we'll be unable to address

否则我们将不能解决

the seemingly intractable challenges that continue to pervade the globe today,

那些棘手的，如今仍散播在全球的挑战，

whether it's health care, education or economic development.

不论是医疗保健，教育，还是经济发展。

The fundamental question is this:

所以根本问题是：

How are we going to create economic growth

我们要怎样在经历金融危机后不断挣扎的

in advanced and developed economies like the United States and across Europe

高度发达的经济体中，

例如美国和欧洲，

at a time when they continue to struggle

to create economic growth after the financial crisis?

制造经济增长呢？

They continue to underperform

这些经济体持续失常发挥，

and to see an erosion in the three key drivers of economic growth:

并且使经济增长的三大要素垮下

capital, labor and productivity.

这三个要素是：资本，劳动和生产力。

In particular,

特别需要注意的是，

these developed economies continue to see debts and deficits,

那些发达的经济体中， 持续有负债、财政赤字、

the decline and erosion of both the quality and quantity of labor

劳动力质量与数量上的下降与侵蚀的问题、

and they also see productivity stalling.

同时也看到生产力停滞现象。

In a similar vein,

同样的脉络下，

how are we going to create economic growth in the emerging markets,

我们要如何在

where 90 percent of the world's population lives

住着世界上90%的人口，

其中平均70%人口25岁以下的新兴市场里

and where, on average,

70 percent of the population is under the age of 25?

创造经济增长呢？

In these countries,

在发达国家，

it is essential that they grow at a minimum of seven percent a year

每年保持最低 7% 的经济增长至关重要，

in order to put a dent in poverty

以此保证贫困人口的减少，

and to double per capita incomes in one generation.

完成人均收入在一代人的时间里翻倍的目标。

And yet today,

但是现在，

the largest emerging economies --

最大的新兴经济体--

countries with at least 50 million people --

那些至少有五千万人口的国家 --

continue to struggle to reach that seven percent magic mark.

仍然很难达到那百分之七的增长。

Worse than that,

更可怕的是，

countries like India, Russia, South Africa, Brazil and even China

像印度、俄罗斯、南非、 巴西这些国家，甚至是中国，

are falling below that seven percent number

经济增长远远落后于百分之七。

and, in many cases, actually regressing.

而且，很多国家实际上正在倒退。

Economic growth matters.

经济增长至关重要。

With economic growth,

只有经济进步了，

countries and societies enter into a virtuous cycle

国家和社会才可以有一个

of upward mobility, opportunity and improved living standards.

社会经济地位上升流动性、机遇、 和高生活质量的良性循环，

Without growth, countries contract and atrophy,

假设没有了经济增长，

不仅这个国家每年的经济统计数据会缩水

not just in the annals of economic statistics

but also in the meaning of life and how lives are lived.

同时人们的生活水平也会降低。

Economic growth matters powerfully for the individual.

经济增长对个体的影响十分巨大。

一旦增长趋势平缓了，

If growth wanes,

the risk to human progress

人类发展

and the risk of political and social instability rises,

和社会政局动荡的风险大大提高，

and societies become dimmer, coarser and smaller.

这样一来，社会就变得灰暗，动乱， 脆弱。

The context matters.

这个背景是重要的。

And countries in emerging markets

而新兴市场的国家

do not need to grow at the same rates as developed countries.

不需要和发达国家发展的一样快。

Now, I know some of you in this room find this to be a risky proposition.

是的，我知道在场的你们中间一些人 会觉得这是一个大胆的说法。

There are some people here

这里的一部分人

who will turn around and be quite disillusioned

会转过身去，

对地球上正在发生的种种坏事唏嘘不已，

by what's happened around the world

and basically ascribe that to economic growth.

并把一切归咎于经济增长。

You worry about the overpopulation of the planet.

你们会担心全球人口过多。

And looking at the UN's recent statistics and projections

联合国最新的数据表明

that the world will have 11 billion people on the planet

世界人口增长在2100年会进入平稳

before it plateaus in 2100,

但那之前人口会到达110亿之多，

you're concerned about what that does to natural resources --

因此你们开始担心自然资源的问题--

arable land, potable water, energy and minerals.

可耕种的土地，可饮用水源， 能源和矿产是否够用。

You are also concerned about the degradation of the environment.

你们同样也会担心环境的恶化。

And you worry about how man,

你们还会想

embodied in the corporate globalist,

提倡全世界和平共处的人类

has become greedy and corrupt.

是怎么会变的这样贪婪和腐败。

But I'm here to tell you today that economic growth

但是我今天在这里是要告诉你们的是

经济增长

has been the backbone of changes in living standards

恰恰是改善成千上万人生活的脊柱。

of millions of people around the world.

And more importantly,

更要强调的是，

it's not just economic growth that has been driven by capitalism.

经济成长并不是 只被资本主义所主导。

The definition of capitalism, very simply put,

资本主义的定义，简单地说，

is that the factors of production,

就是那些生产力因素，

such as trade and industry, capital and labor,

像是，贸易、工业、资本和劳动力，

are left in the hands of the private sector and not the state.

掌握在私人企业而非国家手上的部分。

It's really essential here that we understand

在这里，非常关键的一点是要知道

that fundamentally the critique is not for economic growth per se

应被指责的不是经济增长本身，

but what has happened to capitalism.

而是资本主义的变味。

And to the extent that we need to create economic growth over the long term,

所以考虑到长期制造经济增长的需求，

we're going to have to pursue it with a better form of economic stance.

我们必須用较好的 经济角度去追寻它。

Economic growth needs capitalism,

经济增长确实需要资本主义，

but it needs it to work properly.

但是必须是适当运作的资本主义。

And as I mentioned a moment ago,

正如我之前提到的

the core of the capitalist system has been defined by private actors.

资本主义系统的核心已经被 私人企业所定义控制住了。

And even this, however, is a very simplistic dichotomy.

然而，即使这只是很简单的二分法：

Capitalism: good; non-capitalism: bad.

资本主义：好；非资本主义：不好。

When in practical experience,

但要知道在实践中，

capitalism is much more of a spectrum.

资本主义像是个光谱。 （资本的分配有很多种方式）

And we have countries such as China,

我们有像是中国​​这类的国家，

which have practiced more state capitalism,

是实行国家资本主义的 （国家掌控资本），

and we have countries like the Unites States

而像美国那样的国家，

which are more market capitalist.

是实行市场经济主义的 （资本在市场流通）。

Our efforts to critique the capitalist system, however,

两个都是资本主义，但对资本主义的批评，

have tended to focus on countries like China

却基本是冲着中国那样的

that are in fact not blatantly market capitalism.

不是纯市场资本主义的国家去的。

However, there is a real reason and real concern

然而，我们有一个真正的理由 及真正要注意的地方就是

for us to now focus our attentions on purer forms of capitalism,

现在要把注意力放在 有较单纯架构的资本主义上面，

particularly those embodied by the United States.

特别是那些由美国 体现出来的资本主义。

This is really important

这个非常之重要，

because this type of capitalism

因为这一类的市场资本主义

has increasingly been afforded the critique

滋养腐败的一面开始遭受

that it is now fostering corruption

越来越多的批判，

and, worse still,

更可怕的是

it's increasing income inequality --

市场资本主义导致的 贫富收入差距越来越严峻 --

the idea that the few are benefiting at the expense of the many.

也就是少数人享受着 多数人劳动成果的问题。

The two really critical questions that we need to address

这里有两个我们需要解决的关键性问题。

is how can we fix capitalism

第一个是我们要怎样修正资本主义，

so that it can help create economic growth

使它有利于经济增长

but at the same time can help to address social ills.

而同时又有助于铲除社会诟病。

In order to think about that framing, we have to ask ourselves,

为了要思考这个架构， 我们必须问我们自己，

how does capitalism work today?

如今的资本主义到底是怎样运作的。

Very simplistically,

答案很简单，

capitalism is set on the basis of an individual utility maximizer --

资本主义是在个人效益 最大化的基础上建成的，

a selfish individual who goes after what he or she wants.

简而言之，人们自私地追寻自己想要的东西。

And only after they've maximized their utility

只有当最他们的效益最大化了后，

do they then decide it's important

他们才会去认真思考，

to provide support to other social contracts.

提供援助履行「社会契约」的重要性。

Of course, in this system governments do tax,

当然，在这样一个系统里，政府也会赋税，

and they use part of their revenues to fund social programs,

然后再用部分的税收 来资助社会项目，

recognizing that government's role is not just regulation

为的是让人民知道，政府的存在 不是只有立法管理，

but also to be arbiter of social goods.

同时也扮演了社会福利仲裁者的角色。

But nevertheless,

但尽管如此，

this framework --

这个框架结构--

this two-stage framework --

这两个阶段的框架结构--

is the basis from which we must now start

是我们现在必须开始思考

to think about how we can improve the capitalist model.

要如何改善资本主义模式的基础。

I would argue that there are two sides to this challenge.

为了实现这个蓝图， 我认为可以从两方面入手。

First of all,

首先，

we can draw on the right-wing policies

我们可以借鉴右翼政策，

to see what could be beneficial for us

去看看对我们有什么利益，

to think about how we can improve capitalism.

去思考如何改善资本主义。

In particular,

特别要说的是，

right-leaning policies

偏右派的政策

have tended to focus on things like conditional transfers,

偏向于关注像「条件转移」这样的事，

where we pay and reward people for doing the things

所谓条件转移，指的就是 付钱并奖励人民做我们认为

that we actually think can help enhance economic growth.

可以帮助经济增长的事。

For example,

举个例子，

sending children to school,

我们可以出钱

parents could earn money for that,

请父母送孩子去上学，

or getting their children inoculated or immunized,

或者出钱

请他们带孩子去打疫苗，

parents could get paid for doing that.

Now, quite apart from the debate

现在，不用去争论

on whether or not we should be paying people

我们是否应该付钱

to do what we think they should do anyway,

给父母亲做他们 本来就应该做的事，

the fact of the matter is that pay for performance

真正重要的事实是， 这种 付钱让人做事的效果

has actually yielded some positive results

已经产生一些正向的结果，

in places like Mexico,

像是在墨西哥这个地方、

in Brazil

巴西

and also in pilot programs in New York.

和其他在纽约的试点项目。

But there are also benefits

同时，那些

and significant changes underway on left-leaning policies.

偏左派的做法也是有可取之处的。

Arguments that government should expand its role and responsibility

那些阐述政府需要扩张其职责和责任，

so that it's not so narrowly defined

使其不再定义狭窄，

and that government should be much more of an arbiter

而是更大意义上成为

of the factors of production

生产因素仲裁者的言论

have become commonplace with the success of China.

在中国已经取得了显著的成绩。

But also we've started to have debates

但是同时我们也要开始争论

about how the role of the private sector

有关于私人企业该扮演的角色

should move away from just being a profit motive

应该跳脱只顾营利的动机，

and really be more engaged in the delivery of social programs.

而真正参与到社会项目中去。

Things like the corporate social responsibility programs,

像社会合作责任项目这样的活动，

albeit small in scale,

尽管规模比较小，

are moving in that right direction.

但也正在向正确的方向运作。

Of course, left-leaning policies have also tended to blur the lines

当然，偏左派的政策有时

between government, NGOs and private sector.

也会把政府、非政府组织 和私人企业的界限模糊掉。

Two very good examples of this are the 19th-century United States,

这个概念有两个特别合适的例子， 一个是十九世纪的美国

when the infrastructure rollout

推出的基础设施项目

was really about public-private partnerships.

真的就是公私企业的合作伙伴关系，

More recently, of course,

另一个例子更近一些，

the advent of the Internet has also proven to the world

因特网的出现也告诉了这个世界

that public and private can work together for the betterment of society.

公众与私人是可以一起合作改善社会。

My fundamental message to you is this:

我最想表达的信息其实是这个：

We cannot continue to try and solve the world economic growth challenges

我们不能藉由固执己见或 坚持不必要的意识形态来

by being dogmatic and being unnecessarily ideological.

继续尝试并解决世界经济成长的挑战。

In order to create sustainable, long-term economic growth

为了创造长期可持续的经济发展

and solve the challenges and social ills that continue to plague the world today,

并且解决其他的猖狂的 危机和社会腐败问题，

we're going to have to be more broad-minded

我们必须要有更包容的心胸

about what might work.

了解什么是可行的。

Ultimately,

最终，

we have to recognize that ideology is the enemy of growth.

我们必须要认清 意识形态是增长之敌。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Bruno Giussani: I want to ask a couple of questions, Dambisa,

主持人Bruno Giussani： 我想问你一些问题，丹碧莎,

because one could react to your last sentence

因为人们可以回应你的最后一句话，

by saying growth is also an ideology,

说增长本身也是一种意识形态，

it's possibly the dominant ideology of our times.

它本身还可能是我们这一时代最主要的一个。

What do you say to those who react that way?

你想怎样回复这个观点呢？

DM: Well, I think that that's completely legitimate,

我得说， 这个观点是完全合理的，

and I think that we're already having that discussion.

我认为我们已经讨论过，

There's a lot of work going on around happiness

针对幸福这件事还有很多工作要做，

and other metrics being used for measuring people's success

而且，还有其他的测量方式 可以衡量人们的成功，

and improvements in living standards.

以及生活水平的改善。

And so I think that we should be open

所以，我认为我们应该敞开心胸，

to what could deliver improvements in people's living standards

讨论做什么事可以增进人类的生活水平，

and continue to reduce poverty around the world.

并且持续减少世界上的贫穷现象。

BG: So you're basically pleading for rehabilitating growth,

BG：所以，基本上，你是在为 「增长恢复」辩护，

but the only way for that happen

但是唯一的

without compromising the capacity of the earth,

不威胁到地球的

to take us on a long journey,

长期发展之路

is for economic growth

就是让经济增长

somehow to decouple from the underlying use of resources.

以某种方式消除对资源的过度利用。

Do you see that happening?

你认为这会真的发生吗？

DM: Well, I think that I'm more optimistic about human ability and ingenuity.

我认为我对人类的能力与智慧 是持比较乐观的看法。

I think if we start to constrain ourselves

我认为我们可以开始限制我们自己

using the finite, scarce and depleting resources

对稀缺资源的滥用

that we know today,

毕竟现如今大家

we could get quite negative

都知道也都关心

and quite concerned about the way the world is.

滥用资源所产生的副作用。

However, we've seen the Club of Rome,

但是， 我们已经看到罗马聚乐部

we've seen previous claims

之前宣称

that the world would be running out of resources,

世界最终还是会用尽资源，

and it's not to argue that those things are not valid.

不用去争论这些事情不可能。

But I think, with ingenuity we could see desalination,

但我认为拥有才智我们可以淡化这一过程，

I think we could reinvest in energy,

我人认为我们可以重新利用资源，

so that we can actually get better outcomes.

然后我们就会有更好的结果。

And so in that sense,

所以这样一想，

I'm much more optimistic about what humans can do.

我对人类可以做的事还是挺乐观的。

BG: The thing that strikes me

BG：我对你所说的

about your proposals for rehabilitating growth

恢复经济增长

and taking a different direction

并且考虑其他方向所感到震惊的是

is that you're kind of suggesting to fix capitalism with more capitalism --

你好像在说要用资本主义 去改变资本主义--

with putting a price tag on good behavior as incentive

给善意的行为打个标价做为诱因，

or developing a bigger role for business in social issues.

或者就是让企业在社会问题中有更大的作用。

Is that what you're suggesting?

这是你所认为的吗？

DM: I'm suggesting we have to be open-minded.

DM：我是认为我们必须心胸开阔。

I think it is absolutely the case

有一点绝对的是

that traditional models of economic growth

我认为传统经济增长的模式

are not working the way we would like them to.

并没有像我们期待的那样有效。

And I think it's no accident

我还认为

that today the largest economy in the world, the United States,

如今世界最大经济体美国

has democracy,

实行民主制、

liberal democracy, as it's core political stance

自由民主，作为它的核心政治立场，

and it has free market capitalism --

美国还实行自由的市场资本主义--

to the extent that it is free --

某種程度上，它是自由的--

free market capitalism as its economic stance.

自由的市场资本主义是它的经济立场。

The second largest economy is China.

世界第二大经济体是中国。

It has deprioritized democracy

它有民主非优先顺位发展的政治制度，

and it has state capitalism, which is a completely different model.

而它的国家资本主义， 则是另一个完全不同的体质。

These two countries, completely different political models

这两个国家，是完全不同的政治模式，

and completely different economic models,

经济模式上也是完全不一样，

and yet they have the same income inequality number

但是它们一样有收入不平等指数，

measured as a Gini coefficient.

测量时用的是基尼系数。

I think those are the debates we should have,

我认为这才是我们应有的辩论，

because it's not clear at all

因为我们不清楚

what model we should be adopting,

应采用什么样的体制，

and I think there needs to be much more discourse

我们也需要再讨论，

and much more humility about what we know and what we don't know.

以及更多的谦卑之心来面对 我们知道的和不知道的事物。

BG: One last question. The COP21 is going on in Paris.

BG：最后一个问题， 联合国气候变化大会即将在巴黎举行。

If you could send a tweet

如果你可以

to all the heads of state and heads of delegations there,

给在那里的所有国家代表发条推特，

what would you say?

你会说什么？

DM: Again, I would be very much about being open-minded.

DM：再次地，我很希望大家敞开心胸讨论。

As you're aware,

就像你注意到的一样，

the issues around the environmental concerns

关于环境的问题

have been on the agenda many times now --

逐渐被提上日程,

in Copenhagen, '72 in Stockholm --

在哥本哈根，72年在斯德歌尔摩。 （举办​​的联合国人类环境大会--)

and we keep revisiting these issues

我们会持续关注这些议题，

partly because there is not a fundamental agreement,

部分原因是，根本没有基本的共识协议，

in fact there's a schism

事实上甚至

between what the developed countries believe and want

在发达国家和

and what emerging market countries want.

发展中国家的意见上有分歧。

Emerging market countries need to continue to create economic growth

发展中国家需要持续的经济增长

so that we don't have political uncertainty in the those countries.

如此，我们才不会有「政治不确定性」的国家。

Developed countries recognize

发达国家认为

that they have a real, important responsibility

他们真的有责任

not only just to manage their CO2 emissions

去管理二氧化碳的排放

and some of the degradation that they're contributing to the world,

及一些他们对全世界所造成的破坏，

but also as trendsetters in R&D.

并同时在研究和发展的事业中成为领头羊。

And so they have to come to the table as well.

所以它们必须参加关于环境的讨论会。

But in essence, it cannot be a situation

但是基本上，

where we start ascribing policies to the emerging markets

把所有政策归给发展中国家

without developed countries themselves

而不涉及发达国家

also taking quite a swipe at what they're doing

在他们自己的

both in demand and supply in developed markets.

市场需求和供应中所做的事是不可能的。

BG: Dambisa, thank you for coming to TED. DM: Thank you very much.

BG：丹碧莎，非常感谢你来到TED. DM:谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）