Paul Collier: 4 ways to improve the lives of the "bottom bil

53,474 views ใƒป 2008-06-02

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Shlomo Adam ืžื‘ืงืจ: Ido Dekkers
00:19
So, can we dare to be optimistic?
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ื”ืื ื ืขื™ื– ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืื•ืคื˜ื™ืžื™ื™ื?
00:22
Well, the thesis of "The Bottom Billion"
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ื”ื”ื ื—ื” ื‘ื™ืกื•ื“ "ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ"
00:23
is that a billion people have been stuck living
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ืื•ืžืจืช ืฉืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ื‘ื ื™-ืื“ื ื ื•ืชืจื• ืชืงื•ืขื™ื
00:28
in economies that have been stagnant for 40 years,
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ื‘ื›ืœื›ืœื•ืช ืฉืงืคืื• ืขืœ ืฉืžืจื™ื”ืŸ ืžื–ื” 40 ืฉื ื”,
00:33
and hence diverging from the rest of mankind.
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ื•ืœืคื™ื›ืš ื”ืชื ืชืงื• ืžืฉืืจ ื”ืžื™ืŸ ื”ืื ื•ืฉื™.
00:37
And so, the real question to pose is not, "Can we be optimistic?"
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ื›ืš ืฉื”ืฉืืœื” ืื™ื ื”, "ื”ืื ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืื•ืคื˜ื™ืžื™ื™ื?"
00:40
It's, "How can we give credible hope to that billion people?"
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ืืœื, "ืื™ืš ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ืขื ื™ืง ืชืงื•ื•ื” ืžื‘ื•ืกืกืช ืœืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืื ืฉื™ื ืืœื”?"
00:45
That, to my mind, is the fundamental challenge now of development.
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ืœื“ืขืชื™, ื”ื™ื•ื ื–ื”ื• ืืชื’ืจ ื”ืคื™ืชื•ื— ื”ืืžื™ืชื™.
00:51
What I'm going to offer you is a recipe,
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ืื ื™ ืขื•ืžื“ ืœื”ืฆื™ื’ ื›ืืŸ ืžืชื›ื•ืŸ,
00:54
a combination of the two forces that changed the world for good,
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ืฉื™ืœื•ื‘ ืฉืœ ืฉื ื™ ื”ื›ื•ื—ื•ืช ืฉืฉื™ื ื• ืืช ื”ืขื•ืœื ืœื˜ื•ื‘ื”,
00:59
which is the alliance of compassion and enlightened self-interest.
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ื•ื”ื ื‘ืจื™ืช ื”ื—ืžืœื” ื•ื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจืก ื”ืขืฆืžื™ ื”ื ืื•ืจ.
01:06
Compassion, because a billion people are living in societies
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ื—ืžืœื” - ื›ื™ ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ื‘ื ื™-ืื“ื ื—ื™ื™ื ื‘ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช
01:11
that have not offered credible hope.
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ืฉืœื ื”ืขื ื™ืงื• ืœื”ื ืชืงื•ื•ื” ืžื‘ื•ืกืกืช.
01:16
That is a human tragedy.
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ื–ืืช ื”ื™ื ื˜ืจื’ื“ื™ื” ืื ื•ืฉื™ืช.
01:19
Enlightened self-interest, because if that economic divergence
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ืื™ื ื˜ืจืก ืขืฆืžื™ ื ืื•ืจ - ื›ื™ ืื ื”ืฉื•ื ื™ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™ ื”ื–ื”
01:24
continues for another 40 years,
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ื™ื™ืžืฉืš ืขื•ื“ 40 ืฉื ื”,
01:29
combined with social integration globally,
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ื”ืจื™ ืฉืœืฆื“ ื”ืื™ื ื˜ื’ืจืฆื™ื” ื”ื—ื‘ืจืชื™ืช ื”ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™ืช
01:33
it will build a nightmare for our children.
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ื–ื” ื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ืกื™ื•ื˜ ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื™ืœื“ื™ื ื•.
01:37
We need compassion to get ourselves started,
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ืื ื• ื–ืงื•ืงื™ื ืœื—ืžืœื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœืฆืืช ืœื“ืจืš,
01:41
and enlightened self-interest to get ourselves serious.
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ื•ืื™ื ื˜ืจืก ืขืฆืžื™ ื ืื•ืจ ื›ื“ื™ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืžืขืฉื”.
01:47
That's the alliance that changes the world.
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ื–ืืช ื”ื™ื ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช ืฉืฉื™ื ืชื” ืืช ื”ืขื•ืœื.
01:50
So, what does it mean to get serious about providing hope for the bottom billion?
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ืžื” ื”ืžืฉืžืขื•ืช ืฉืœ ืขืฉื™ื™ืช ืžืขืฉื” ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ืช ืžืชืŸ ืชืงื•ื•ื” ืœืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ?
01:57
What can we actually do?
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ืžื” ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื‘ืคื•ืขืœ?
02:01
Well, a good guide is to think,
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ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ื˜ื•ื‘ ืื—ื“ ื”ื•ื ืœืฉืื•ืœ,
02:04
"What did we do last time the rich world got serious
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ืื™ืš ื ื”ื’ื ื• ื‘ืคืขื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื” ืฉื”ืขื•ืœื ื”ืขืฉื™ืจ ืขืฉื” ืžืขืฉื”
02:09
about developing another region of the world?"
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ื‘ื™ื—ืก ืœืคื™ืชื•ื—ื• ืฉืœ ืื–ื•ืจ ืื—ืจ ื‘ืขื•ืœื?
02:13
That gives us, it turns out, quite a good clue,
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ืžืกืชื‘ืจ ืฉื–ื” ื ื•ืชืŸ ืœื ื• ืจืžื– ื˜ื•ื‘ ืœืžื“ื™,
02:17
except you have to go back quite a long time.
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ืื‘ืœ ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื—ื–ื•ืจ ื”ืจื—ืง ืœืื—ื•ืจ.
02:20
The last time the rich world got serious
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ื”ืคืขื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื” ืฉื‘ื” ื”ืขื•ืœื ื”ืขืฉื™ืจ ืขืฉื” ืžืขืฉื”
02:22
about developing another region was in the late 1940s.
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืคื™ืชื•ื— ืื–ื•ืจ ืื—ืจ ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื”ื™ืชื” ื‘ืกื•ืฃ ืฉื ื•ืช ื”-40.
02:28
The rich world was you, America,
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ื”ืขื•ืœื ื”ืขืฉื™ืจ ื”ื™ื” ืืชื, ืืžืจื™ืงื”,
02:33
and the region that needed to be developed was my world, Europe.
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ื•ื”ืื–ื•ืจ ืฉื ื–ืงืง ืœืคื™ืชื•ื— ื”ื™ื” ื”ืขื•ืœื ืฉืœื™, ืื™ืจื•ืคื”,
02:38
That was post-War Europe.
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ืื™ืจื•ืคื” ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™ ื”ืžืœื—ืžื”.
02:41
Why did America get serious?
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ืžื“ื•ืข ืืžืจื™ืงื” ืขืฉืชื” ืžืขืฉื”?
02:44
It wasn't just compassion for Europe, though there was that.
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ืœื ืจืง ืžืชื•ืš ื—ืžืœื” ืœืื™ืจื•ืคื”, ืœืžืจื•ืช ืฉื”ื™ืชื” ื—ืžืœื”,
02:48
It was that you knew you had to,
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ืืœื ืžืฉื•ื ืฉื™ื“ืขืชื ืฉืขืœื™ื›ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช,
02:51
because, in the late 1940s, country after country in Central Europe
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ื›ื™ ื‘ืกื•ืฃ ืฉื ื•ืช ื”-40, ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืื—ืจ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื‘ืžืจื›ื– ืื™ืจื•ืคื”
02:56
was falling into the Soviet bloc, and so you knew you'd no choice.
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ื ืคืœื• ืœื™ื“ื™ ื”ื’ื•ืฉ ื”ืกื•ื‘ื™ื™ื˜ื™, ื•ื™ื“ืขืชื ืฉืื™ืŸ ืœื›ื ื‘ืจื™ืจื”.
03:02
Europe had to be dragged into economic development.
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ื”ื™ื” ื”ื›ืจื— ืœื’ืจื•ืจ ืืช ืื™ืจื•ืคื” ืœืคื™ืชื•ื— ื›ืœื›ืœื™.
03:05
So, what did you do, last time you got serious?
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ืื– ืื™ืš ื ื”ื’ืชื ื‘ืคืขื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื” ืฉืขืฉื™ืชื ืžืขืฉื”?
03:09
Well, yes, you had a big aid program. Thank you very much.
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ื ื›ื•ืŸ. ื”ื’ื™ืชื ืชื›ื ื™ืช ืกื™ื•ืข ืžืขื•ืœื”. ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื” ืœื›ื.
03:13
That was Marshall aid: we need to do it again. Aid is part of the solution.
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ื”ื™ืชื” ื–ื• ืชื›ื ื™ืช ืžืจืฉืœ. ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื—ื–ื•ืจ ืขืœ ื›ืš. ื”ืกื™ื•ืข ื”ื•ื ื—ืœืง ืžื”ืคืชืจื•ืŸ.
03:18
But what else did you do?
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ืืš ืžื” ืขื•ื“ ืขืฉื™ืชื?
03:21
Well, you tore up your trade policy, and totally reversed it.
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ืงืจืขืชื ืœื’ื–ืจื™ื ืืช ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ืกื—ืจ ืฉืœื›ื ื•ื”ืคื›ืชื ืื•ืชื” ืขืœ ืคื ื™ื”.
03:28
Before the war, America had been highly protectionist.
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ืœืคื ื™ ื”ืžืœื—ืžื” ืืžืจื™ืงื” ื”ื™ืชื” ืžืื“ ืžื’ื•ื ื ืช.
03:32
After the war, you opened your markets to Europe,
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ื•ืื—ืจื™ ื”ืžืœื—ืžื” ืคืชื—ืชื ืืช ืฉื•ื•ืงื™ื›ื ืœืื™ืจื•ืคื”,
03:36
you dragged Europe into the then-global economy, which was your economy,
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ื’ืจืจืชื ืืช ืื™ืจื•ืคื” ืœื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™ืช ืฉืœ ืื–, ืฉื”ื™ืชื” ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื” ืฉืœื›ื,
03:40
and you institutionalized that trade liberalization
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ื•ืขื™ื’ื ืชื›ื ื‘ื—ื•ืงื” ืืช ื—ื•ืคืฉ ื”ืกื—ืจ
03:42
through founding the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.
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ืข"ื™ ื›ื™ื ื•ืŸ ื”ืกื›ื ื”ืชืขืจื™ืคื™ื ื•ื”ืกื—ืจ.
03:46
So, total reversal of trade policy.
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ, ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืžื•ื—ืœื˜ ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ืกื—ืจ.
03:49
Did you do anything else?
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ื”ืื ืขืฉื™ืชื ืขื•ื“ ืžืฉื”ื•?
03:50
Yes, you totally reversed your security policy.
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ื›ืŸ. ื”ืคื›ืชื ืขืœ ืคื ื™ื” ืืช ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื›ื.
03:53
Before the war, your security policy had been isolationist.
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ืœืคื ื™ ื”ืžืœื—ืžื”, ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื›ื ื”ื™ืชื” ืฉืœ ื‘ื™ื“ื•ื“,
03:57
After the war, you tear that up, you put 100,000 troops in Europe
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ื•ืื—ืจื™ ื”ืžืœื—ืžื” ื–ื ื—ืชื ืื•ืชื” ื•ื”ืฆื‘ืชื 100,000 ื—ื™ื™ืœื™ื ื‘ืื™ืจื•ืคื”
04:03
for over 40 years.
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ืœืžืฉืš ื™ื•ืชืจ ืž-40 ืฉื ื”.
04:05
So, total reversal of security policy. Anything else?
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ ื”ื™ืคื•ืš ืžื•ื—ืœื˜ ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ. ื”ื™ื” ืขื•ื“ ืžืฉื”ื•?
04:10
Yes, you tear up the "Eleventh Commandment" --
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ื›ืŸ. ืงืจืขืชื ืœื’ื–ืจื™ื ืืช "ื”ื“ื™ื‘ืจ ื”ืื—ื“-ืขืฉืจ"--
04:14
national sovereignty.
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ืฉื”ื™ื ื”ืจื™ื‘ื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ืช.
04:17
Before the war, you treated national sovereignty as so sacrosanct
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ืœืคื ื™ ื”ืžืœื—ืžื” ืจืื™ืชื ื‘ืจื™ื‘ื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ืช ืขืจืš ื›ื” ืžืงื•ื“ืฉ
04:22
that you weren't even willing to join the League of Nations.
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ืขื“ ื›ื™ ืœื ืจืฆื™ืชื ืœื”ืฆื˜ืจืฃ ืœื—ื‘ืจ ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ื,
04:25
After the war, you found the United Nations,
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ื•ืื™ืœื• ืื—ืจื™ ื”ืžืœื—ืžื” ื™ื™ืกื“ืชื ืืช ื”ืื•"ื,
04:28
you found the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
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ืืช ื”ืืจื’ื•ืŸ ืœืฉื™ืชื•ืฃ ืคืขื•ืœื” ื•ืคื™ืชื•ื— ื›ืœื›ืœื™,
04:32
you found the IMF, you encouraged Europe to create the European Community --
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ืืช ืงืจืŸ ื”ืžื˜ื‘ืข ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ืช, ืขื•ื“ื“ืชื ืืช ืื™ืจื•ืคื” ืœื”ืงื™ื ืืช ื”ืงื”ื™ืœื” ื”ืื™ืจื•ืคื™ืช--
04:37
all systems for mutual government support.
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ื›ืœ ื”ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื”ื ื—ื•ืฆื•ืช ืœืชืžื™ื›ื” ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ืช ื”ื“ื“ื™ืช.
04:41
That is still the waterfront of effective policies:
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ื–ื• ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื—ื•ื“ ื”ื—ื ื™ืช ืฉืœ ื›ืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื™ืขื™ืœื”:
04:47
aid, trade, security, governments.
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ืกื™ื•ืข, ืกื—ืจ, ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ, ืžืžืฉืœ.
04:51
Of course, the details of policy are going to be different,
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ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ืฉืคืจื˜ื™ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ืขืชื™ื“ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืฉื•ื ื™ื,
04:54
because the challenge is different.
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ื›ื™ ื”ืืชื’ืจ ืฉื•ื ื”.
04:56
It's not rebuilding Europe, it's reversing the divergence
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ืœื ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ืฉื™ืงื•ืžื” ืฉืœ ืื™ืจื•ืคื” ืืœื ื‘ื”ื™ืคื•ืš ืชื”ืœื™ืš ื”ื ื™ืชื•ืง
05:02
for the bottom billion, so that they actually catch up.
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ืฉืœ ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ, ื›ื“ื™ ืฉื™ืฆืœื™ื—ื• ืœื’ืฉืจ ืขืœ ื”ืคืขืจ.
05:05
Is that easier or harder?
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ื”ืื ื–ื” ืงืœ ืื• ืงืฉื” ื™ื•ืชืจ?
05:09
We need to be at least as serious as we were then.
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ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืžืขืฉื” ื’ื“ื•ืœ ืœืคื—ื•ืช ื›ืžื• ืื–.
05:14
Now, today I'm going to take just one of those four.
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ื”ื™ื•ื ืืชื™ื™ื—ืก ืจืง ืœืื—ื“ ืžืืจื‘ืขืช ื”ืžืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ื ื”ืืœื•,
05:19
I'm going to take the one that sounds the weakest,
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ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ืžืจื›ื™ื‘ ืฉื ืจืื” ื”ื—ืœืฉ ืžื›ื•ืœื,
05:22
the one that's just motherhood and apple pie --
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ื–ื” ืฉืžื–ื›ื™ืจ ืจืง ืื™ืžื”ื•ืช ื•ืขื•ื’ื•ืช ืชืคื•ื—ื™ื--
05:25
governments, mutual systems of support for governments --
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ืžืžืฉืœื™ื, ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืชืžื™ื›ื” ื”ื“ื“ื™ืช ื‘ืžืžืฉืœื™ื--
05:28
and I'm going to show you one idea
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ื•ืืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืื—ื“,
05:32
in how we could do something to strengthen governance,
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ื›ื™ืฆื“ ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืžืฉื”ื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื—ื–ืง ืืช ื”ืžืžืฉืœ,
05:37
and I'm going to show you that that is enormously important now.
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ืืฆื™ื’ ืœื›ื ืืช ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืฉื”ื™ื•ื ื”ื•ื ื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืžืื“.
05:44
The opportunity we're going to look to
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ื”ื”ื–ื“ืžื ื•ืช ืฉืื•ืชื” ื ื‘ื—ืŸ
05:49
is a genuine basis for optimism about the bottom billion,
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ืžื”ื•ื•ื” ื‘ืกื™ืก ืืžื™ืชื™ ืœืื•ืคื˜ื™ืžื™ื•ืช ื‘ืงืจื‘ ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ,
05:55
and that is the commodity booms.
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ื•ื”ื™ื ื”ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ื‘ืฆืจื™ื›ื”.
05:58
The commodity booms are pumping unprecedented amounts of money
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ื”ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ื‘ืฆืจื™ื›ื” ื“ื•ื—ืฃ ื›ืžื•ื™ื•ืช ื›ืกืฃ ื—ืกืจื•ืช-ืชืงื“ื™ื
06:04
into many, though not all, of the countries of the bottom billion.
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ืœืจื‘ื•ืช - ืœืžืจื•ืช ืฉืœื ื›ืœ - ืžืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ.
06:10
Partly, they're pumping money in because commodity prices are high,
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ื—ืœืงื™ืช ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืžื—ื™ืจื™ ื”ืžืฆืจื›ื™ื ื”ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื™ื,
06:14
but it's not just that. There's also a range of new discoveries.
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ืืš ืœื ืจืง ื‘ื’ืœืœ ื–ื”. ื™ืฉ ื’ื ื”ืจื‘ื” ืชื’ืœื™ื•ืช ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช.
06:21
Uganda has just discovered oil, in about the most disastrous location on Earth;
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ืื•ื’ื ื“ื” ืžืฆืื” ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื ืคื˜, ื‘ืื—ื“ ืžืื–ื•ืจื™ ื”ืืกื•ืŸ ื”ื’ืจื•ืขื™ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื;
06:27
Ghana has discovered oil;
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ื’ืื ื” ืžืฆืื” ื ืคื˜;
06:29
Guinea has got a huge new exploitation of iron ore coming out of the ground.
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ื‘ื’ื™ื ื™ืื” ื™ืฉ ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื” ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ ืขืฆื•ื ืฉืœ ืžื—ืฆื‘ื™ ื‘ืจื–ืœ.
06:34
So, a mass of new discoveries.
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ, ื”ืžื•ืŸ ื’ื™ืœื•ื™ื™ื ื—ื“ืฉื™ื.
06:37
Between them, these new revenue flows dwarf aid.
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ื•ื‘ื™ืŸ ื›ืœ ื”ื”ื›ื ืกื•ืช ื”ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช ื”ืืœื”, ื”ืŸ ืžื’ืžื“ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืกื™ื•ืข.
06:42
Just to give you one example:
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ืจืง ื›ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ืื—ืช:
06:45
Angola alone is getting 50 billion dollars a year in oil revenue.
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ืื ื’ื•ืœื” ืœื‘ื“ื” ืžืจื•ื•ื™ื—ื” 50 ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ื“ื•ืœืจ ื‘ืฉื ื” ื‘ื”ื›ื ืกื•ืช ืžื ืคื˜.
06:50
The entire aid flows to the 60 countries of the bottom billion last year were 34 billion.
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ื›ืœ ื”ืกื™ื•ืข ืœ-60 ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ ื‘ืฉื ื” ืฉืขื‘ืจื” ื”ื™ื” 34 ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“.
06:56
So, the flow of resources from the commodity booms
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ื›ืš ืฉื–ืจื™ืžืช ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื ืžื”ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ื‘ืฆืจื™ื›ื”
07:01
to the bottom billion are without precedent.
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ืืœ ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ื—ืกืจ-ืชืงื“ื™ื,
07:06
So there's the optimism.
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ื•ื–ื”ื• ื”ื‘ืกื™ืก ืœืื•ืคื˜ื™ืžื™ื•ืช.
07:08
The question is, how is it going to help their development?
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ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ื™ื ืื™ืš ื–ื” ื™ืขื–ื•ืจ ืœืคื™ืชื•ื— ืฉืœื”ื?
07:12
It's a huge opportunity for transformational development.
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ื–ื• ื”ื–ื“ืžื ื•ืช ื›ื‘ื™ืจื” ืœืคื™ืชื•ื— ืฉื™ื”ืคื•ืš ืกื“ืจื™-ืขื•ืœื.
07:16
Will it be taken?
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ื”ืื ื”ื™ื ืชื ื•ืฆืœ?
07:18
So, here comes a bit of science, and this is a bit of science I've done
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ื”ื ื” ืงืฆืช ืคืจื˜ื™ื ืžื“ืขื™ื™ื. ื–ื”ื• ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉืขืจื›ืชื™
07:22
since "The Bottom Billion," so it's new.
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ืžืื– "ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ", ื›ืš ืฉื–ื” ื—ื“ืฉ.
07:25
I've looked to see what is the relationship between
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ื‘ื“ืงืชื™ ืžื” ื”ื™ื—ืกื™ื ืฉื‘ื™ืŸ
07:29
higher commodity prices of exports,
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ืžื—ื™ืจื™ ืžืฆืจื›ื™ ื”ื™ืฆื•ื ื”ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ,
07:32
and the growth of commodity-exporting countries.
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ืœื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืžื™ื™ืฆืื•ืช.
07:34
And I've looked globally, I've taken all the countries in the world
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ื‘ื“ืงืชื™ ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™ืช, ืœืงื—ืชื™ ืืช ื›ืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืขื•ืœื
07:37
for the last 40 years,
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ื‘-40 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช,
07:39
and looked to see what the relationship is.
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ื•ื‘ื“ืงืชื™ ืžื”ื ื”ื™ื—ืกื™ื.
07:42
And the short run -- say, the first five to seven years -- is just great.
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ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ - ื ื ื™ื—, 5-7 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื•ืช - ื–ื” ืžืขื•ืœื”.
07:51
In fact, it's hunky dory: everything goes up.
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ื–ื” ืžืžืฉ ื™ื•ืคื™-ื˜ื•ืคื™: ื”ื›ืœ ื‘ืฆืžื™ื—ื”.
07:56
You get more money because your terms of trade have improved,
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ื ื›ื ืก ื™ื•ืชืจ ื›ืกืฃ ื›ื™ ืชื ืื™ ื”ืกื—ืจ ื”ืฉืชืคืจื•,
07:58
but also that drives up output across the board.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื’ื ื“ื•ื—ืฃ ืืช ื”ืชืคื•ืงื” ืœื›ืœ ืื•ืจืš ื”ืงื•.
08:01
So GDP goes up a lot -- fantastic! That's the short run.
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ื”ืชื•ืฆืจ ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ ื”ื’ื•ืœืžื™ ืขื•ืœื” ืžืื“. ืžืฆื•ื™ืŸ. ื–ื” ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ.
08:07
And how about the long run?
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ื•ืžื” ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืืจื•ืš?
08:09
Come back 15 years later.
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ื‘ื“ืงืชื™ ืžื” ืงื•ืจื” ืื—ืจื™ 15 ืฉื ื”.
08:12
Well, the short run, it's hunky dory,
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ืื– ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ ื”ื›ืœ ื™ื•ืคื™-ื˜ื•ืคื™,
08:14
but the long run, it's humpty dumpty.
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืืจื•ืš ื”ื›ืœ ืžืชื—ืจื‘ืฉ.
08:19
You go up in the short run, but then most societies
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ื™ืฉ ืขืœื™ื” ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ, ืืš ืจื•ื‘ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช
08:23
historically have ended up worse than if they'd had no booms at all.
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ื ืงืœืขื• ืœืื•ืจืš ื–ืžืŸ ืœืžืฆื‘ ื’ืจื•ืข ืžืืฉืจ ืื™ืœื•ืœื ื”ื™ื” ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ื›ืœืœ.
08:28
That is not a forecast about how commodity prices go;
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ื–ื• ืื™ื ื ื” ืชื—ื–ื™ืช ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืขืœื™ื™ืช ืžื—ื™ืจื™ ื”ืกื—ื•ืจื•ืช;
08:32
it's a forecast of the consequences, the long-term consequences,
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ื–ื• ืชื—ื–ื™ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช, ืฉืœ ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืืจื•ืš,
08:36
for growth of an increase in prices.
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื”ืงืฉื•ืจื” ื‘ืขืœื™ื™ืช ื”ืžื—ื™ืจื™ื.
08:41
So, what goes wrong? Why is there this "resource curse," as it's called?
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ืื– ืžื” ืžืฉืชื‘ืฉ? ืžื” ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœ"ืงืœืœืช ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื" ื”ื–ื•, ื›ืคื™ ืฉื”ื™ื ืžื›ื•ื ื”?
08:46
And again, I've looked at that, and it turns out
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ื•ืฉื•ื‘, ื‘ื“ืงืชื™ ืืช ื–ื”, ื•ื”ืกืชื‘ืจ
08:49
that the critical issue is the level of governance,
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ืฉื”ืกื•ื’ื™ื” ื”ืžื›ืจืขืช ื”ื™ื ืจืžืช ื”ืžืžืฉืœ,
08:53
the initial level of economic governance,
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ืจืžืช ื”ืžืžืฉืœ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™ ื‘ื”ืชื—ืœื”,
08:55
when the resource booms accrue.
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ื›ืฉืžืชืจื—ืฉ ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื.
08:58
In fact, if you've got good enough governance,
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื›ืฉื”ืžืžืฉืœ ื˜ื•ื‘ ื“ื™ื•,
09:00
there is no resource boom.
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ืื™ืŸ ืฉื•ื ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื.
09:02
You go up in the short term, and then you go up even more in the long term.
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ื™ืฉ ืขืœื™ื” ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ, ื•ืื—ืจ ืขืœื™ื” ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืืจื•ืš.
09:07
That's Norway, the richest country in Europe. It's Australia. It's Canada.
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ื›ืš ื‘ื ื•ืจื•ื•ื’ื™ื”, ื”ืืจืฅ ื”ืขืฉื™ืจื” ื‘ืื™ืจื•ืคื”. ื‘ืื•ืกื˜ืจืœื™ื”. ื‘ืงื ื“ื”.
09:13
The resource curse is entirely confined to countries
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ืงืœืœืช ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื ืžื•ื’ื‘ืœืช ื›ื•ืœื” ืœืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช
09:15
below a threshold of governance.
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ืฉืžืชื—ืช ืœืกืฃ ืžืกื•ื™ื ืฉืœ ืžืžืฉืœ.
09:17
They still go up in the short run.
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ื’ื ื‘ื”ืŸ ื™ืฉ ืขืœื™ื” ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ.
09:19
That's what we're seeing across the bottom billion at the moment.
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ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉืื ื• ืžื•ืฆืื™ื ื›ื™ื•ื ืืฆืœ ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ.
09:23
The best growth rates they've had -- ever.
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ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ืฉืœื”ื - ืื™-ืคืขื.
09:26
And the question is whether the short run will persist.
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ื•ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ื™ื ื”ืื ืžื’ืžืช ื”ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ ืชื™ืžืฉืš.
09:32
And with bad governance historically, over the last 40 years, it hasn't.
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ื”ื™ื›ืŸ ืฉื”ืžืžืฉืœ ื”ื™ื” ื›ื‘ืจ ื’ืจื•ืข, ื‘-40 ื”ืฉื ื” ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช, ื–ื” ืœื ืงืจื”.
09:36
It's countries like Nigeria, which are worse off than if they'd never had oil.
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ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ืืจืฆื•ืช ื›ืžื• ื ื™ื’ืจื™ื”, ืฉืžืฆื‘ืŸ ื”ื™ื” ื˜ื•ื‘ ืื™ืœื•ืœื ื”ื ืคื˜.
09:44
So, there's a threshold level above which you go up in the long term,
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ื›ืš ืฉื™ืฉ ืกืฃ ืžืกื•ื™ื ืฉืžืขื‘ืจ ืœื• ืชื™ืชื›ืŸ ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืืจื•ืš.
09:49
and below which you go down.
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ื•ืžืชื—ืชื™ื• - ื™ืฉ ื™ืจื™ื“ื”.
09:51
Just to benchmark that threshold,
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ืจืง ื›ืืžืช-ืžื™ื“ื” ืœืกืฃ ื”ื–ื”,
09:53
it's about the governance level of Portugal in the mid 1980s.
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ื–ื• ื‘ืขืจืš ืจืžืช ื”ืžืžืฉืœ ื‘ืคื•ืจื˜ื•ื’ืœ ื‘ืืžืฆืข ืฉื ื•ืช ื”-80.
10:00
So, the question is, are the bottom billion above or below that threshold?
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ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ื™ื ื”ืื ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ ื ืžืฆื ืžืขืœ ืื• ืžืชื—ืช ืœืกืฃ ื”ื–ื”?
10:05
Now, there's one big change since the commodity booms of the 1970s,
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ื™ืฉ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืื—ื“ ืžืื– ื”ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ื”ืฆืจื›ื ื™ ืฉืœ ืฉื ื•ืช ื”-70,
10:10
and that is the spread of democracy.
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ื•ื”ื•ื ื”ืชืคืฉื˜ื•ืช ื”ื“ืžื•ืจืงื˜ื™ื”.
10:13
So I thought, well, maybe that is the thing
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ืื– ื—ืฉื‘ืชื™ ืœืขืฆืžื™ ืฉืื•ืœื™ ื–ื” ื”ื“ื‘ืจ
10:15
which has transformed governance in the bottom billion.
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ืฉืฉื™ื ื” ืืช ื”ืžืžืฉืœ ื‘ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ.
10:17
Maybe we can be more optimistic because of the spread of democracy.
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ืื•ืœื™ ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ืื•ืคื˜ื™ืžื™ื™ื ื”ื•ื“ื•ืช ืœื”ืชืคืฉื˜ื•ืช ื”ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื”.
10:21
So, I looked. Democracy does have significant effects --
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ืื– ื‘ื“ืงืชื™. ืœื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื” ื™ืฉ ืื›ืŸ ื”ืฉืคืขื•ืช ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ื•ืช --
10:26
and unfortunately, they're adverse.
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ื•ืœืžืจื‘ื” ื”ืฆืขืจ ื”ืŸ ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื•ืช.
10:29
Democracies make even more of a mess of these resource booms than autocracies.
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ื”ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื•ืช ืขืฉื• ืขื•ื“ ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ืœื’ืŸ ืžื”ืื•ื˜ื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื ื”ื–ื”.
10:35
At that stage I just wanted to abandon the research, but --
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ื•ื›ืขืช ื›ื‘ืจ ืจืฆื™ืชื™ ืœื ื˜ื•ืฉ ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ, ืื‘ืœ --
10:38
(Laughter)
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[ืฆื—ื•ืง]
10:40
-- it turns out that democracy is a little bit more complicated than that.
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ืžืชื‘ืจืจ ืฉื”ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื” ืงืฆืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื•ืจื›ื‘ืช ืžื›ืš,
10:43
Because there are two distinct aspects of democracy:
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ื›ื™ ื™ืฉ ืœื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื” ืฉื ื™ ื”ื™ื‘ื˜ื™ื ืžื•ื‘ื”ืงื™ื:
10:47
there's electoral competition, which determines how you acquire power,
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ื™ืฉ ื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ื•ืช ื‘ื‘ื—ื™ืจื•ืช, ืฉืงื•ื‘ืขืช ืื™ืš ืžืฉื™ื’ื™ื ื›ื•ื—,
10:52
and there are checks and balances, which determine how you use power.
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ื•ื™ืฉ ื‘ืœืžื™ื ื•ืื™ื–ื•ื ื™ื, ืฉื•ืงื‘ืขื™ื ืื™ืš ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ื ื‘ื›ื•ื—.
10:58
It turns out that electoral competition is the thing
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ืžืชื‘ืจืจ ืฉื”ื‘ื—ื™ืจื•ืช ื”ืŸ ื”ื“ื‘ืจ
11:00
that's doing the damage with democracy,
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ืฉื’ื•ืจื ื ื–ืง ื‘ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื”,
11:02
whereas strong checks and balances make resource booms good.
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ื‘ืขื•ื“ ืฉื‘ืœืžื™ื ื•ืื™ื–ื•ื ื™ื ื˜ื•ื‘ื™ื ืžื™ื˜ื™ื‘ื™ื ืขื ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื.
11:07
And so, what the countries of the bottom billion need
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ื›ืš ืฉืžื” ืฉืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ ื–ืงื•ืงื•ืช ืœื•
11:10
is very strong checks and balances.
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ื”ื•ื ื‘ืœืžื™ื ื•ืื™ื–ื•ื ื™ื ื—ื–ืงื™ื ืžืื“.
11:12
They haven't got them.
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ื•ืื™ืŸ ืฉื ื›ืืœื”.
11:14
They got instant democracy in the 1990s:
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ื”ื ืงื™ื‘ืœื• ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื” ืžืŸ ื”ืžื•ื›ืŸ ื‘ืฉื ื•ืช ื”-90
11:17
elections without checks and balances.
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ื‘ื—ื™ืจื•ืช ืœืœื ื‘ืœืžื™ื ื•ืื™ื–ื•ื ื™ื.
11:20
How can we help improve governance and introduce checks and balances?
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ืื™ืš ื ื•ื›ืœ ืื ื• ืœืขื–ื•ืจ ื‘ืฉื™ืคื•ืจ ื”ืžืžืฉืœ ื•ื‘ื›ื™ื ื•ืŸ ื‘ืœืžื™ื ื•ืื™ื–ื•ื ื™ื?
11:26
In all the societies of the bottom billion,
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ื‘ื›ืœ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืชื•ืŸ
11:28
there are intense struggles to do just that.
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ืžืชื—ื•ืœืœื™ื ืžืื‘ืงื™ื ืขื–ื™ื ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืกื‘ื™ื‘ ื–ื”.
11:33
The simple proposal is that we should have some international standards,
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ื”ื”ืฆืขื” ื”ืคืฉื•ื˜ื” ื”ื™ื ืฉื ื™ืฆื•ืจ ืชืงื ื™ื ื‘ื™ื "ืœ ืžืกื•ื™ืžื™ื,
11:38
which will be voluntary, but which would spell out the key decision points
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ืฉืœื ื™ื”ื™ื• ื‘ื’ื“ืจ ื—ื•ื‘ื”, ืืš ื™ื ืกื—ื• ืืช ืฆืžืชื™ ื”ื”ื—ืœื˜ื” ื”ืขื™ืงืจื™ื•ืช
11:43
that need to be taken in order
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื ืงื•ื˜ ื‘ื”ืŸ ืขืœ ืžื ืช
11:46
to harness these resource revenues.
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ืœืจืชื•ื ืืช ืื•ืชืŸ ื”ื›ื ืกื•ืช ืžื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื.
11:49
We know these international standards work
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ืื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉืœืชืงื ื™ื ื”ื‘ื™ื "ืœ ื™ืฉ ื›ื•ื—
11:51
because we've already got one.
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ื›ื™ ื›ื‘ืจ ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืชืงืŸ ื›ื–ื”.
11:53
It's called the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.
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ื”ื•ื ืงืจื•ื™ "ื”ื™ื•ื–ืžื” ืœืฉืงื™ืคื•ืช ื‘ืชืขืฉื™ื™ืช ื”ื›ืจื™ื™ื”".
11:56
That is the very simple idea that governments should report
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ื–ื”ื• ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืžืื“, ื”ืื•ืžืจ ืฉืžืžืฉืœื•ืช ืฆืจื™ื›ื•ืช ืœื“ื•ื•ื—
12:01
to their citizens what revenues they have.
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ืœืื–ืจื—ื™ื ืžื” ื”ื”ื›ื ืกื•ืช ืฉืœื”ืŸ.
12:04
No sooner was it proposed
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ืžื™ื“ ืฉืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื–ื” ื”ื•ืฆืข
12:06
than reformers in Nigeria adopted it, pushed it and published the revenues in the paper.
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ื”ืจืคื•ืจืžื˜ื•ืจื™ื ื‘ื ื™ื’ืจื™ื” ืื™ืžืฆื• ื•ืงื™ื“ืžื• ืื•ืชื•, ื•ืคื™ืจืกืžื• ืืช ื”ื”ื›ื ืกื•ืช ื‘ืขื™ืชื•ืŸ.
12:13
Nigerian newspapers circulations spiked.
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ืžื›ื™ืจื•ืช ื”ืขื™ืชื•ื ื™ื ื‘ื ื™ื’ืจื™ื” ื–ื™ื ืงื•.
12:15
People wanted to know what their government was getting
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ืื ืฉื™ื ืจืฆื• ืœื“ืขืช ืžื” ื”ืžืžืฉืœื” ืฉืœื”ื ืžืคื™ืงื”
12:18
in terms of revenue.
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ื‘ืžื•ื ื—ื™ ืจื•ื•ื—ื™ื ืžื”ื›ื ืกื•ืช.
12:21
So, we know it works. What would the content be of these international standards?
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ื›ืš ืฉื™ื“ื•ืข ืœื ื• ืฉื–ื” ืคื•ืขืœ. ืžื” ื™ื”ื™ื” ืชื•ื›ืŸ ื”ืชืงื ื™ื ื”ื‘ื™ื "ืœ ื”ืืœื”?
12:28
I can't go through all of them, but I'll give you an example.
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ืœื ืื•ื›ืœ ืœืขื‘ื•ืจ ืขืœ ื›ื•ืœื, ืืš ืืชืŸ ืœื›ื ื“ื•ื’ืžื”.
12:33
The first is how to take the resources out of the ground --
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ืงื•ื“ื ื›ืœ, ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืคืงืช ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื ืžืŸ ื”ืื“ืžื”--
12:37
the economic processes, taking the resources out of the ground
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ื”ืชื”ืœื™ื›ื™ื ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™ื™ื, ื”ื•ืฆืืช ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื ืžืŸ ื”ืื“ืžื”
12:40
and putting assets on top of the ground.
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ื•ื”ืฆื‘ืช ื ื›ืกื™ื ืขืœ ืคื ื™ ื”ืื“ืžื”.
12:43
And the first step in that is selling the rights to resource extraction.
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ื•ื”ืฆืขื“ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ืžื›ื™ืจืช ื”ื–ื›ื•ื™ื•ืช ืœื”ืคืงืช ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื.
12:47
You know how rights to resource extraction are being sold at the moment,
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ื”ืจื™ ื™ื“ื•ืข ืœื›ื ืื™ืš ืžื•ื›ืจื™ื ื”ื™ื•ื ื–ื›ื•ื™ื•ืช ืœื”ืคืงืช ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื.
12:51
how they've been sold over the last 40 years?
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ื•ืื™ืš ืžื›ืจื• ืื•ืชืŸ ื‘-40 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช.
12:53
A company flies in, does a deal with a minister.
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ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ื˜ืกื” ืœืฉื, ืกื•ื’ืจืช ืขื™ืกืงื” ืขื ืื™ื–ื” ืฉืจ,
12:57
And that's great for the company,
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ื•ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ื–ื” ืžืฆื•ื™ืŸ,
12:59
and it's quite often great for the minister --
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ื•ืœืขืชื™ื ืงืจื•ื‘ื•ืช ื’ื ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœ ื”ืฉืจ --
13:01
(Laughter)
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[ืฆื—ื•ืง]
13:02
-- and it's not great for their country.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืœื ื›ืœ-ื›ืš ืžืฆื•ื™ืŸ ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ืช ื”ืืจืฅ.
13:05
There's a very simple institutional technology
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ื™ืฉ ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืžืžืกื“ื™ืช ืคืฉื•ื˜ื” ืžืื“
13:07
which can transform that,
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ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœืฉื ื•ืช ื–ืืช,
13:09
and it's called verified auctions.
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ื•ื”ื™ื ืงืจื•ื™ื” ืžื›ื™ืจื•ืช ืคื•ืžื‘ื™ื•ืช ืžืื•ืžืชื•ืช.
13:14
The public agency with the greatest expertise on Earth
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ื”ืกื•ื›ื ื•ืช ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ืขืœื™-ืื“ืžื•ืช
13:20
is of course the treasury -- that is, the British Treasury.
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ื”ื™ื ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ืžืฉืจื“ ื”ืื•ืฆืจ, ืžืฉืจื“ ื”ืื•ืฆืจ ื”ื‘ืจื™ื˜ื™.
13:23
And the British Treasury decided that it would sell the rights
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ื•ืžืฉืจื“ ื”ืื•ืฆืจ ื”ื‘ืจื™ื˜ื™ ื”ื—ืœื™ื˜ ืœืžื›ื•ืจ ืืช ื”ื–ื›ื•ื™ื•ืช
13:26
to third-generation mobile phones
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ืœื˜ืœืคื•ื ื™ื ื ื™ื™ื“ื™ื ืžื”ื“ื•ืจ ื”ืฉืœื™ืฉื™
13:28
by working out what those rights were worth.
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ืข"ื™ ื—ื™ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืจื›ืŸ ืฉืœ ื–ื›ื•ื™ื•ืช ืืœื”.
13:31
They worked out they were worth two billion pounds.
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ืœืคื™ ื”ื—ื™ืฉื•ื‘ ืฉืœื”ื, ืขืจื›ืŸ ื”ื™ื” 2 ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืœื™ืฉ"ื˜.
13:34
Just in time, a set of economists got there and said,
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ืžืขืจืš ืฉืœ ื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ื ื”ืชืขืจื‘ ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ื•ื”ืฆื™ืข,
13:37
"Why not try an auction? It'll reveal the value."
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"ื‘ื•ืื• ื ื ืกื” ืžื›ื™ืจื” ืคื•ืžื‘ื™ืช. ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉื™ืจืื” ืืช ื”ืขืจืš."
13:40
It went for 20 billion pounds through auction.
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ื”ื–ื›ื•ื™ื•ืช ื ืžื›ืจื• ื‘ืžื›ื™ืจื” ืคื•ืžื‘ื™ืช ื‘-20 ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืœื™ืฉ"ื˜.
13:44
If the British Treasury can be out by a factor of 10,
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ืื ืžืฉืจื“ ื”ืื•ืฆืจ ื”ื‘ืจื™ื˜ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื˜ืขื•ืช ื‘ืคื™ 10,
13:47
think what the ministry of finance in Sierra Leone is going to be like.
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ื—ื™ืฉื‘ื• ืื™ืš ื™ืชืคืงื“ ืžืฉืจื“ ื”ืื•ืฆืจ ืฉืœ ืกื™ื™ืจื” ืœืื•ื ื”.
13:50
(Laughter)
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[ืฆื—ื•ืง]
13:51
When I put that to the President of Sierra Leone,
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ื›ืฉื”ืฆื’ืชื™ ื–ืืช ืœื ืฉื™ื ืกื™ื™ืจื” ืœืื•ื ื”,
13:53
the next day he asked the World Bank to send him a team
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ื”ื•ื ื‘ื™ืงืฉ ืœืžื—ืจืช ืžื”ื‘ื ืง ื”ืขื•ืœืžื™ ืœืฉืœื•ื— ืืœื™ื• ืฆื•ื•ืช
13:56
to give expertise on how to conduct auctions.
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ืฉื™ื™ืขืฅ ืœื• ื‘ื ื•ืฉื ื ื™ื”ื•ืœ ืžื›ื™ืจื•ืช ืคื•ืžื‘ื™ื•ืช.
14:01
There are five such decision points;
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ื™ืฉ ื—ืžืฉ ืฆืžืชื™ ื”ื—ืœื˜ื” ื›ืืœื”;
14:03
each one needs an international standard.
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ื›ืœ ืื—ืช ืžื”ืŸ ื–ืงื•ืงื” ืœืชืงื™ื ื” ื‘ื™ื ืœืื•ืžื™ืช.
14:07
If we could do it, we would change the world.
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ืื ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช, ื ืฉื ื” ืืช ื”ืขื•ืœื.
14:11
We would be helping the reformers in these societies,
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ื ืขื–ื•ืจ ืœืจืคื•ืจืžื˜ื•ืจื™ื ื‘ืื•ืชืŸ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช,
14:15
who are struggling for change.
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ื”ื ืื‘ืงื™ื ืœืฉื™ื ื•ื™.
14:18
That's our modest role. We cannot change these societies,
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ื–ื”ื• ืชืคืงื™ื“ื ื• ื”ืฆื ื•ืข. ืœื ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืฉื ื•ืช ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืืœื”,
14:22
but we can help the people in these societies
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ืืš ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืขื–ื•ืจ ืœื‘ื ื™ ื”ืื“ื ื‘ืื•ืชืŸ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช
14:25
who are struggling and usually failing,
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ืฉื ืื‘ืงื™ื ื•ื‘ื“ืจืš-ื›ืœืœ ื ื›ืฉืœื™ื,
14:28
because the odds are so stacked against them.
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ื›ื™ ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ื ื ื’ื“ื ื›ื” ืขืฆื•ืžื™ื.
14:34
And yet, we've not got these rules.
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ื•ืฉื•ื‘, ืื™ืŸ ืœื ื• ื”ื—ื•ืงื™ื ื”ืืœื”.
14:37
If you think about it, the cost of promulgating international rules
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ืื ืชื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ื›ืš, ื”ืžื—ื™ืจ ืฉืœ ื”ืคืฆืช ื—ื•ืงื™ื ื‘ื™ื "ืœ,
14:41
is zilch -- nothing.
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ื”ื•ื ืืคืก - ื›ืœื•ื.
14:44
Why on Earth are they not there?
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ืžื“ื•ืข ื‘ืฉื ืืœื•ื”ื™ื ืื™ืŸ ื—ื•ืงื™ื ื›ืืœื”?
14:48
I realized that the reason they're not there
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ื”ื‘ื ืชื™ ืฉื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื›ืš ืฉืื™ืŸ ื›ืืœื” ื”ื™ื,
14:52
is that until we have a critical mass of informed citizens in our own societies,
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ืฉืขื“ ืฉืชื”ื™ื” ืœื ื• ืžืกื” ืงืจื™ื˜ื™ืช ืฉืœ ืื–ืจื—ื™ื ืžื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ื‘ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•,
14:58
politicians will get away with gestures.
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ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงืื™ื ื™ื•ื›ืœื• ืœื”ืชื—ืžืง ืข"ื™ ื›ืœ ืžื™ื ื™ ืžื—ื•ื•ืช.
15:01
That unless we have an informed society,
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ื•ืื ืœื ืชื”ื™ื” ืœื ื• ื—ื‘ืจื” ืžื™ื•ื“ืขืช,
15:06
what politicians do, especially in relation to Africa, is gestures:
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ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงืื™ื, ื‘ืคืจื˜ ื‘ื™ื—ืก ืœืืคืจื™ืงื”, ื™ืžืฉื™ื›ื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืจืง ืžื—ื•ื•ืช:
15:12
things that look good, but don't work.
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ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉื ืจืื™ื ื˜ื•ื‘, ืื‘ืœ ืœื ืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ื.
15:15
And so I realized we had to go through the business
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื”ื‘ื ืชื™ ืฉืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื”ืฉืงื™ืข
15:18
of building an informed citizenry.
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ื‘ื™ืฆื™ืจืชื• ืฉืœ ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจ ืื–ืจื—ื™ ืžื™ื•ื“ืข.
15:22
That's why I broke all the professional rules of conduct for an economist,
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื”ืคืจืชื™ ืืช ื›ืœ ื›ืœืœื™ ื”ืžืงืฆื•ืข ืฉืœ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ื,
15:27
and I wrote an economics book that you could read on a beach.
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ื•ื›ืชื‘ืชื™ ืกืคืจ ื›ืœื›ืœื” ืฉืืคืฉืจ ืœืงืจื•ื ื‘ื—ื•ืคืฉื”.
15:30
(Laughter).
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[ืฆื—ื•ืง]
15:35
However, I have to say, the process of communication
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ืืš ืขืœื™ ืœื”ื•ื“ื•ืช ืฉืชื”ืœื™ืš ืžืกื™ืจืช ื”ืžื™ื“ืข
15:39
does not come naturally to me.
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ืื™ื ื• ื˜ื‘ืขื™ ืœื™.
15:41
This is why I'm on this stage, but it's alarming.
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืื ื™ ืขื•ืžื“ ืขืœ ื”ื‘ืžื” ื”ื–ืืช. ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืžื‘ื”ื™ืœ.
15:45
I grew up in a culture of self-effacement.
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ื’ื“ืœืชื™ ื‘ืชืจื‘ื•ืช ืฉืœ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ืœ-ืขืฆืžื™.
15:53
My wife showed me a blog comment on one of my last talks,
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ืืฉืชื™ ื”ืจืืชื” ืœื™ ื”ืขืจืช-ื‘ืœื•ื’ ืขืœ ืื—ืช ืžื”ืจืฆืื•ืชื™ ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช,
15:57
and the blog comment said, "Collier is not charismatic --
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ื•ื”ื”ืขืจื” ืืžืจื”, "ืงื•ืœื™ื™ืจ ืื™ื ื ื• ื›ืจื™ื–ืžื˜ื™ --
16:03
(Laughter)
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[ืฆื—ื•ืง]
16:06
-- but his arguments are compelling."
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"-- ืืš ื˜ื™ืขื•ื ื™ื• ื›ื•ื‘ืฉื™ื."
16:09
(Laughter)
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[ืฆื—ื•ืง]
16:13
(Applause)
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[ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื]
16:20
If you agree with that sentiment,
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ืื ืืชื ืžืกื›ื™ืžื™ื ืขื ื“ืขื” ื–ื•,
16:23
and if you agree that we need a critical mass of informed citizenry,
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ื•ืขืœ ื›ืš ืฉื ื—ื•ืฆื” ืœื ื• ืžืกื” ืงืจื™ื˜ื™ืช ืฉืœ ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจ ืžื™ื•ื“ืข,
16:29
you will realize that I need you.
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ืชื‘ื™ื ื• ืฉืื ื™ ื–ืงื•ืง ืœื›ื.
16:33
Please, become ambassadors.
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ื‘ื‘ืงืฉื”, ื”ื™ืขืฉื• ืœืฉื’ืจื™ืจื™ื.
16:35
Thank you.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืœื›ื.
16:37
(Applause)
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[ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื]
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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