Paul Collier: 4 ways to improve the lives of the "bottom bil

53,474 views ・ 2008-06-02

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: Jae Yeon KIM κ²€ν† : Surie Lee
00:19
So, can we dare to be optimistic?
0
19330
3000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 낙관적일 수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
00:22
Well, the thesis of "The Bottom Billion"
1
22330
1000
빈곀의 κ²½μ œν•™μ˜ μ£Όμ œλŠ”
00:23
is that a billion people have been stuck living
2
23330
5000
λ°”λ‹₯ 10μ–΅ 인ꡬ의 삢이 μ²˜μ°Έν•œ μƒνƒœμ—μ„œ μ •μ²΄λ˜μ–΄ μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:28
in economies that have been stagnant for 40 years,
3
28330
5000
경제적으둜 그듀은 κ·Έ μƒνƒœκ°€ 40λ…„ λ™μ•ˆμ΄λ‚˜ κ³„μ†λ˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:33
and hence diverging from the rest of mankind.
4
33330
4000
λ˜ν•œ λ‹€λ₯Έ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€κ³Ό λΉˆλΆ€μ˜ μ°¨κ°€ λ”μš± 컀지고 있죠
00:37
And so, the real question to pose is not, "Can we be optimistic?"
5
37330
3000
λ”°λΌμ„œ 우리의 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€, "μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 낙관적일 수 μžˆλŠλƒ?"κ°€ μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:40
It's, "How can we give credible hope to that billion people?"
6
40330
5000
그것은 μš°λ¦¬κ°€ "μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ κ·Έ 10μ–΅μ˜ μΈκ΅¬μ—κ²Œ μ‹ λ’°ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” 희망을 μ£ΌλŠλƒ" ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:45
That, to my mind, is the fundamental challenge now of development.
7
45330
6000
그리고 κ·Έ 것이 제 μƒκ°μ—λŠ” ꡭ제개발 μ˜μ—­μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œ 근본적인 λ„μ „μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:51
What I'm going to offer you is a recipe,
8
51330
3000
μ œκ°€ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ—κ²Œ μ£Όλ €κ³  ν•˜λŠ” 건 λŒ€μ•ˆμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
00:54
a combination of the two forces that changed the world for good,
9
54330
5000
그것은 이 세상을 μ„ ν•œ λ°©ν–₯으둜 λ°”κΎΌ 두 힘의 합이죠
00:59
which is the alliance of compassion and enlightened self-interest.
10
59330
7000
그것은 인λ₯˜μ• μ˜ μ—°λŒ€μ™€ 계λͺ½λœ μ΄μ΅μΆ”κ΅¬μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:06
Compassion, because a billion people are living in societies
11
66330
5000
인λ₯˜μ• κ°€ ν•„μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€ μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ λ°”λ‹₯ 10μ–΅μ˜ 인ꡬ가 μ‚΄κ³  μžˆλŠ” μ‚¬νšŒλŠ”
01:11
that have not offered credible hope.
12
71330
5000
μ‹ λ’°ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” 희망을 μ œκ³΅ν•˜μ§€ λͺ»ν•˜κ³  있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:16
That is a human tragedy.
13
76330
3000
이것은 μΈκ°„μ˜ λΉ„κ·Ήμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:19
Enlightened self-interest, because if that economic divergence
14
79330
5000
계λͺ½λœ 이읡좔ꡬ가 μ€‘μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λ§Œμ•½μ— 이 경제적 격차가
01:24
continues for another 40 years,
15
84330
5000
μ•žμœΌλ‘œ 40λ…„ λ™μ•ˆ 더 μ§€μ†λœλ‹€λ©΄
01:29
combined with social integration globally,
16
89330
4000
그리고 μ„Έκ³„μ μœΌλ‘œ μ§„ν–‰λ˜λŠ” μ‚¬νšŒμ˜ 톡합과 합쳐진닀면
01:33
it will build a nightmare for our children.
17
93330
4000
이것은 ν›„μ„ΈλŒ€λ“€μ—κ²Œ μ•…λͺ½μ„ κ°€μ Έλ‹€ 쀄 κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:37
We need compassion to get ourselves started,
18
97330
4000
이 문제λ₯Ό ν•΄κ²°ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄ μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²ŒλŠ” 인λ₯˜μ• κ°€ ν•„μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:41
and enlightened self-interest to get ourselves serious.
19
101330
6000
λ˜ν•œ μ§„μ§€ν•˜κ²Œ 이 λ¬Έμ œμ— μ ‘κ·Όν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œ 계λͺ½λœ 자발적 관심이 ν•„μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:47
That's the alliance that changes the world.
20
107330
3000
λ°”λ‘œ 이것이 세상을 λ°”κΏ€ 수 μžˆλŠ” 두 힘의 ν•©μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:50
So, what does it mean to get serious about providing hope for the bottom billion?
21
110330
7000
κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€λ©΄ λ°”λ‹₯ 10얡을 μœ„ν•΄μ„œ μ§„μ§€ν•΄μ§„λ‹€λŠ” 것이 무엇을 μ˜λ―Έν•©λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
01:57
What can we actually do?
22
117330
4000
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ‹€μ œλ‘œ 무엇을 ν•  수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
02:01
Well, a good guide is to think,
23
121330
3000
μ΄λ ‡κ²Œ μƒκ°ν•˜λ©΄ 쒋은 좜발일 것 κ°™μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:04
"What did we do last time the rich world got serious
24
124330
5000
μ–Έμ œκ°€ 전세계 뢀ꡭ듀이 μ§„μ§€ν•˜κ²Œ
02:09
about developing another region of the world?"
25
129330
4000
κ·Έ λ°˜λŒ€νŽΈμ— μžˆλŠ” 개발 지역을 λ„μš°λ € ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
02:13
That gives us, it turns out, quite a good clue,
26
133330
4000
κ·Έ μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€ μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ 쒋은 증거λ₯Ό κ°€μ Έλ‹€ μ€λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:17
except you have to go back quite a long time.
27
137330
3000
μ•„μ£Ό 였래 μ „μœΌλ‘œ λŒμ•„κ°€μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:20
The last time the rich world got serious
28
140330
2000
전세계 뢀ꡭ듀이 λ§ˆμ§€λ§‰μœΌλ‘œ μ§„μ§€ν•˜κ²Œ
02:22
about developing another region was in the late 1940s.
29
142330
6000
λ‹€λ₯Έ λ‚˜λΌλ“€μ˜ κ°œλ°œμ„ λ„μš°λ € ν–ˆλ˜ 것은 1940λ…„λŒ€ ν›„λ°˜μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
02:28
The rich world was you, America,
30
148330
5000
그리고 κ·Έ 뢀ꡭ은 λ°”λ‘œ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„, λ―Έκ΅­μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:33
and the region that needed to be developed was my world, Europe.
31
153330
5000
그리고 κ·Έ 미ꡭ이 λ„μš°λ €κ³  ν–ˆλ˜ 개발 지역은 λ°”λ‘œ μ œκ°€ μ‚΄κ³ μžˆλŠ”, μœ λŸ½μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:38
That was post-War Europe.
32
158330
3000
κ·Έ 것은 μ–‘μ°¨λŒ€μ „μ΄ λλ‚œ μœ λŸ½μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:41
Why did America get serious?
33
161330
3000
μ™œ 미ꡭ이 κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ μ§„μ§€ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
02:44
It wasn't just compassion for Europe, though there was that.
34
164330
4000
μ•„μ£Ό μ—†λ‹€κ³  ν•  μˆ˜λŠ” μ—†μ§€λ§Œ 인λ₯˜μ• κ°€ μ „λΆ€κ°€ μ•„λ‹ˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:48
It was that you knew you had to,
35
168330
3000
그건 κ·Έ λ•Œ 미ꡭ이 κ·Έ 일을 ν–ˆμ–΄μ•Ό ν–ˆκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:51
because, in the late 1940s, country after country in Central Europe
36
171330
5000
1940λ…„λŒ€ ν›„λ°˜μ— 쀑앙 유럽의 ꡭ가듀은 ν•˜λ‚˜μ”©
02:56
was falling into the Soviet bloc, and so you knew you'd no choice.
37
176330
6000
μ†ŒλΉ„μ—νŠΈ μ§„μ˜μœΌλ‘œ λ“€μ–΄κ°€κ³  μžˆμ—ˆκ³  κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 미ꡭ은 λ‹€λ₯Έ 선택이 μ—†μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:02
Europe had to be dragged into economic development.
38
182330
3000
μœ λŸ½μ€ 경제적으둜 μ„±μž₯ν–ˆμ–΄μ•Όλ§Œ ν–ˆμ£ .
03:05
So, what did you do, last time you got serious?
39
185330
4000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 미ꡭ이 μ§„μ§€ν–ˆμ„ λ•Œ, κ·Έ λ•Œ 미ꡭ은 무엇을 ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
03:09
Well, yes, you had a big aid program. Thank you very much.
40
189330
4000
미ꡭ은 μ•„μ£Ό μ»€λ‹€λž€ 원쑰 κ³„νšμ„ 가지고 μžˆμ—ˆμ£ . μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜ κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:13
That was Marshall aid: we need to do it again. Aid is part of the solution.
41
193330
5000
그것은 λ§ˆμ…œ ν”Œλžœμ΄μ—ˆμ£ . μš°λ¦¬λŠ” κ·Έκ±Έ λ‹€μ‹œ ν•„μš”λ‘œ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ›μ‘°λŠ” ν•΄κ²°μ±…μ˜ μΌλΆ€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:18
But what else did you do?
42
198330
3000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 미ꡭ은 또 무얼 ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
03:21
Well, you tore up your trade policy, and totally reversed it.
43
201330
7000
미ꡭ은 무역 정책을 λ°”κΏ¨μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ™„μ „νžˆ μ—­μ „μ‹œμΌ°μ£ .
03:28
Before the war, America had been highly protectionist.
44
208330
4000
μ „μŸ μ „μ—λŠ” 미ꡭ은 ꡉμž₯히 λ³΄ν˜Έμ£Όμ˜μ μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:32
After the war, you opened your markets to Europe,
45
212330
4000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ „μŸ ν›„μ—λŠ” 미ꡭ은 κ·Έλ“€μ˜ μ‹œμž₯을 μœ λŸ½μ— μ—΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:36
you dragged Europe into the then-global economy, which was your economy,
46
216330
4000
미ꡭ은 μœ λŸ½μ„ κΈ€λ‘œλ²Œ μ‹œμž₯으둜 λŒμ–΄ λ“€μ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. 자ꡭ μ‹œμž₯μ΄μ—ˆμ£ .
03:40
and you institutionalized that trade liberalization
47
220330
2000
그리고 미ꡭ은 무역 μžμœ ν™”λ₯Ό μ œλ„ν™” μ‹œμΌ°μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:42
through founding the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.
48
222330
4000
GATT의 섀립을 ν†΅ν•΄μ„œμš”.
03:46
So, total reversal of trade policy.
49
226330
3000
κ·Έλ ‡μ§€μš”. 무역 전체λ₯Ό μ™„μ „νžˆ 뒀집은 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:49
Did you do anything else?
50
229330
1000
κ·Έ 외에 미ꡭ은 또 무얼 ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
03:50
Yes, you totally reversed your security policy.
51
230330
3000
λ§žμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. 미ꡭ은 μ•ˆλ³΄ 정책을 μ™„μ „νžˆ λ’€μ§‘μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:53
Before the war, your security policy had been isolationist.
52
233330
4000
μ „μŸ μ „μ˜ 미ꡭ의 μ•ˆλ³΄ 정책은 κ³ λ¦½μ£Όμ˜μ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:57
After the war, you tear that up, you put 100,000 troops in Europe
53
237330
6000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ „μŸ ν›„μ—λŠ” 미ꡭ은 10만λͺ…μ˜ 병사λ₯Ό μœ λŸ½μ— νŒŒλ³‘ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:03
for over 40 years.
54
243330
2000
κ·Έ ν›„ 40λ…„ λ™μ•ˆμ΄λ‚˜μš”.
04:05
So, total reversal of security policy. Anything else?
55
245330
5000
μ•ˆλ³΄ μ •μ±…μ˜ μ™„μ „ν•œ μ—­μ „μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. κ·Έ 외에 무엇이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
04:10
Yes, you tear up the "Eleventh Commandment" --
56
250330
4000
λ§žμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. ν—Œλ²• 11쑰에 변경을 κ°€ν•œ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:14
national sovereignty.
57
254330
3000
κ΅­κ°€μ˜ μ£ΌκΆŒμ— κ΄€ν•œ 것이죠.
04:17
Before the war, you treated national sovereignty as so sacrosanct
58
257330
5000
μ „μŸ μ „μ—λŠ” λ―Έκ΅­μ—κ²Œ μžˆμ–΄μ„œ κ΅­κ°€μ˜ μ£ΌκΆŒμ΄λž€ μ‹ μ„± λΆˆκ°€μΉ¨μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:22
that you weren't even willing to join the League of Nations.
59
262330
3000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 미ꡭ은 κ΅­μ œμ—°ν•©μ— κ°€μž…ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμœΌλ € ν–ˆμ£ .
04:25
After the war, you found the United Nations,
60
265330
3000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ „μŸ 후에 미ꡭ은 UN을 μ„Έμ› μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:28
you found the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
61
268330
4000
미ꡭ은 OECD와,
04:32
you found the IMF, you encouraged Europe to create the European Community --
62
272330
5000
IMFλ₯Ό μ„Έμ› κ³ , 유럽으둜 ν•˜μ—¬κΈˆ 유럽 곡동체(EC)λ₯Ό μ„Έμš°κ²Œ ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:37
all systems for mutual government support.
63
277330
4000
이 λͺ¨λ“  μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ€ 각ꡭ μ •λΆ€κ°€ μ„œλ‘œ 돕기 μœ„ν•΄μ„œμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:41
That is still the waterfront of effective policies:
64
281330
6000
그것은 μ—¬μ „νžˆ 효과적인 정책듀을 μœ„ν•΄μ„œ μ€‘μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:47
aid, trade, security, governments.
65
287330
4000
원쑰, 무역, μ•ˆλ³΄, 그리고 μ •λΆ€ 행정에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ λ§μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:51
Of course, the details of policy are going to be different,
66
291330
3000
λ¬Όλ‘ , κ·Έ λ•Œμ™€ μ§€κΈˆμ€ μ •μ±…λ“€μ˜ μ„ΈλΆ€ 사항은 많이 λ‹€λ₯΄κ² μ§€μš”.
04:54
because the challenge is different.
67
294330
2000
그것은 λ„μ „μ˜ λ‚΄μš©μ΄ λ‹€λ₯΄κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:56
It's not rebuilding Europe, it's reversing the divergence
68
296330
6000
이것은 μœ λŸ½μ„ λ‹€μ‹œ μ„Έμš°λŠ” 것이 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€. 이것은 격차λ₯Ό μ€„μ΄κ³ μž ν•˜λŠ” 것이죠.
05:02
for the bottom billion, so that they actually catch up.
69
302330
3000
λ°”λ‹₯ 10μ–΅μ˜ 인ꡬ둜 ν•˜μ—¬κΈˆ 그듀이 μ‹€μ œλ‘œ 일어섀 수 있게 ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•œ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:05
Is that easier or harder?
70
305330
4000
이것이 더 μ‰¬μšΈκΉŒμš” μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄ 더 μ–΄λ €μšΈκΉŒμš”?
05:09
We need to be at least as serious as we were then.
71
309330
5000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ΅œμ†Œν•œ κ·Έ λ•Œ 만큼 진지할 ν•„μš”κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:14
Now, today I'm going to take just one of those four.
72
314330
5000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ˜€λŠ˜μ€ μ €λŠ” κ·Έ λ„€ 개 쀑에 ν•˜λ‚˜λ₯Ό λ‹€λ£¨κ³ μž ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:19
I'm going to take the one that sounds the weakest,
73
319330
3000
μ €λŠ” 였늘 κ·Έλž˜λ„ κ·Έ μ€‘μ—μ„œ κ°€μž₯ μ•½ν•˜κ²Œ λ“€λ¦¬λŠ” 것을 λ‹€λ£¨κ³ μž ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:22
the one that's just motherhood and apple pie --
74
322330
3000
λͺ¨μ„±μ• μ™€ μ• ν”ŒνŒŒμ΄...
05:25
governments, mutual systems of support for governments --
75
325330
3000
μ •λΆ€λ“€, 정뢀듀이 μ„œλ‘œ 돕기 μœ„ν•œ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œ...
05:28
and I'm going to show you one idea
76
328330
4000
그리고 μ €λŠ” μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ ν•œ 가지 아이디어λ₯Ό λ“œλ¦¬κ³ μž ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:32
in how we could do something to strengthen governance,
77
332330
5000
μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ ν•˜λ©΄ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이 ν†΅μ œλ₯Ό κ°•ν™”μ‹œν‚¬ 수 μžˆμ„ 지에 λŒ€ν•΄μ„œ λ§μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:37
and I'm going to show you that that is enormously important now.
78
337330
7000
그리고 μ œκ°€ λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬κ³ μž ν•˜λŠ” 건 그게 μ•„μ£Ό μ€‘μš”ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:44
The opportunity we're going to look to
79
344330
5000
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λ³΄κ³ μžν•˜λŠ” κΈ°νšŒλŠ”
05:49
is a genuine basis for optimism about the bottom billion,
80
349330
6000
이듀 λ°”λ‹₯의 10얡에 λŒ€ν•˜ λ‚™κ΄€μ£Όμ˜μ˜ μ§„μ‹€ν•œ κ·Όκ±°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:55
and that is the commodity booms.
81
355330
3000
그것은 μ›μžμž¬ κ°€κ²©μ˜ μƒμŠΉμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:58
The commodity booms are pumping unprecedented amounts of money
82
358330
6000
μ›μžμž¬ κ°€κ²©μ˜ μƒμŠΉμ€ μ˜ˆμƒν•˜μ§€ λͺ»ν–ˆλ˜ λ§Žμ€ 돈이
06:04
into many, though not all, of the countries of the bottom billion.
83
364330
6000
비둝 μ „λΆ€λŠ” μ•„λ‹ˆμ§€λ§Œ μ΅œν•˜μΈ΅μ˜ 10μ–΅ μΈκ΅¬μ—κ²Œ ν˜λŸ¬λ“€μ–΄κ°€κ²Œ ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:10
Partly, they're pumping money in because commodity prices are high,
84
370330
4000
λΆ€λΆ„μ μœΌλ‘œ μ΄λ ‡κ²Œ 돈이 ν˜λŸ¬λ“€μ–΄κ°€λŠ”κ±΄ κ·Έ μ›μžμž¬ 가격이 λ†’κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:14
but it's not just that. There's also a range of new discoveries.
85
374330
7000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 그게 μ „λΆ€λŠ” μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€. κ±°κΈ°μ—λŠ” μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ λ°œκ²¬λ“€μ΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:21
Uganda has just discovered oil, in about the most disastrous location on Earth;
86
381330
6000
μš°κ°„λ‹€λŠ” μ„μœ λ₯Ό λ°œκ²¬ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ§€κ΅¬μƒμ—μ„œ κ°€μž₯ μœ„ν—˜ν•œ λ•… 쀑에 ν•˜λ‚˜μ—μ„œμš”.
06:27
Ghana has discovered oil;
87
387330
2000
κ°€λ‚˜λŠ” μ˜€μΌμ„ λ°œκ²¬ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:29
Guinea has got a huge new exploitation of iron ore coming out of the ground.
88
389330
5000
κΈ°λ‹ˆλŠ” μ§€λ°˜μ—μ„œ λ°œκ²¬λ˜λŠ” μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ λ°©λŒ€ν•œ 철을 μ±„μΆœν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:34
So, a mass of new discoveries.
89
394330
3000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ—¬κΈ°μ—λŠ” λ§Žμ€ λ°œκ²¬λ“€μ΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:37
Between them, these new revenue flows dwarf aid.
90
397330
5000
κ·Έ μ‚¬μ΄μ—μ„œ μ΄λ ‡κ²Œ ν˜λŸ¬λ“€μ–΄μ˜€λŠ” λˆμ€ 원쑰λ₯Ό μ΄ˆλΌν•˜κ²Œ λ§Œλ“­λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:42
Just to give you one example:
91
402330
3000
μ—¬κΈ° ν•œ 가지 μ˜ˆμ‹œλ₯Ό λ“€κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:45
Angola alone is getting 50 billion dollars a year in oil revenue.
92
405330
5000
μ•™κ³¨λΌλŠ” 일년에 였일 μž¬μ •μ„ ν†΅ν•΄μ„œ 50μ–΅ λ‹¬λŸ¬λ₯Ό λ²Œμ–΄ λ“€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:50
The entire aid flows to the 60 countries of the bottom billion last year were 34 billion.
93
410330
6000
이 λ°”λ‹₯ 10얡에 μ†ν•œ 60μ–΅ 인ꡬ에 흘러 λ“€μ–΄κ°„ λˆμ€ μž‘λ…„ ν•œ ν•΄ 34μ–΅ λ‹¬λŸ¬μ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
06:56
So, the flow of resources from the commodity booms
94
416330
5000
λ”°λΌμ„œ μ›μžμž¬ 가격 μƒμŠΉμ— 따라
07:01
to the bottom billion are without precedent.
95
421330
5000
λ°”λ‹₯ 10얡에 ν˜λŸ¬λ“€μ–΄κ°€λŠ” λˆμ€ 전에 μ—†λŠ” 규λͺ¨μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:06
So there's the optimism.
96
426330
2000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 여기에 λ‚™κ΄€μ£Όμ˜κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:08
The question is, how is it going to help their development?
97
428330
4000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ λ¬Έμ œλŠ” μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μ΄λ“€μ˜ κ°œλ°œμ„ λ•λŠλƒν•˜λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:12
It's a huge opportunity for transformational development.
98
432330
4000
이건 개발 μ˜μ—­μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œ μ‹œλŒ€λ₯Ό 뒀집을 큰 κΈ°νšŒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:16
Will it be taken?
99
436330
2000
κ·Έ 기회λ₯Ό μž‘μ„ 수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
07:18
So, here comes a bit of science, and this is a bit of science I've done
100
438330
4000
그리고 여기에 μ œκ°€ μˆ˜ν–‰ν•œ μ•½κ°„μ˜ κ³Όν•™ μ‹€ν—˜μ΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:22
since "The Bottom Billion," so it's new.
101
442330
3000
빈곀의 κ²½μ œν•™μ„ μ“΄ 이후기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ— 이 것은 μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:25
I've looked to see what is the relationship between
102
445330
4000
μ €λŠ” κ·Έ 관계가 무엇인 지 μ•Œκ³ μž ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:29
higher commodity prices of exports,
103
449330
3000
μ›μžμž¬ 수좜의 높은 가격과
07:32
and the growth of commodity-exporting countries.
104
452330
2000
그리고 κ·Έ μ›μžμž¬ 수좜 κ΅­κ°€μ˜ 경제 μ„±μž₯과의 관계 λ§μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:34
And I've looked globally, I've taken all the countries in the world
105
454330
3000
그리고 μ €λŠ” κ·Έκ±Έ μ„Έκ³„μ μœΌλ‘œ 보렀고 ν–ˆμ£ . μ €λŠ” λͺ¨λ“  ꡭ가듀을 μƒκ°ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:37
for the last 40 years,
106
457330
2000
μ§€λ‚œ 40λ…„ λ™μ•ˆμ—μš”.
07:39
and looked to see what the relationship is.
107
459330
3000
그리고 μ œκ°€ 깨달은 κ·Έ κ΄€κ³„λŠ”
07:42
And the short run -- say, the first five to seven years -- is just great.
108
462330
9000
λ‹¨κΈ°μ μœΌλ‘œλŠ” 5μ—μ„œ 7λ…„ μ •λ„λŠ” 이것은 ꡉμž₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:51
In fact, it's hunky dory: everything goes up.
109
471330
5000
이보닀 더 쒋을 수 μ—†μ£ . λͺ¨λ“  μ§€ν‘œκ°€ λ‹€ μ˜¬λΌκ°‘λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:56
You get more money because your terms of trade have improved,
110
476330
2000
무역 쑰건이 κ°œμ„ λ˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ— 돈이 더 λ“€μ–΄μ˜€κ²Œ 됐죠.
07:58
but also that drives up output across the board.
111
478330
3000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ κ·Έ 것은 λ™μ‹œμ— μ „ μ˜μ—­μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œ 생산λ ₯을 ν–₯μƒμ‹œν‚΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
08:01
So GDP goes up a lot -- fantastic! That's the short run.
112
481330
6000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ GDPλŠ” 많이 올라 κ°‘λ‹ˆλ‹€. ꡉμž₯ν•˜μ£ ! λ‹¨κΈ°κ°„μ—λŠ” κ·Έλ ‡μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:07
And how about the long run?
113
487330
2000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μž₯κΈ°κ°„μ—λŠ” μ–΄λ–»μŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
08:09
Come back 15 years later.
114
489330
3000
15λ…„ ν›„λ‘œ λŒμ•„κ°€ λ΄…μ‹œλ‹€.
08:12
Well, the short run, it's hunky dory,
115
492330
2000
λ‹¨κΈ°κ°„μ—λŠ” 이보닀 더 쒋을 수 μ—†λ‹€, μ˜€μ§€λ§Œ
08:14
but the long run, it's humpty dumpty.
116
494330
5000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μž₯κΈ°κ°„μ—λŠ” 이보닀 더 λ‚˜μ  수 μ—†λ‹€, μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:19
You go up in the short run, but then most societies
117
499330
4000
λ‹¨κΈ°κ°„μ—λŠ” ν–₯상이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€ κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„μ˜ μ‚¬νšŒμ—μ„œ
08:23
historically have ended up worse than if they'd had no booms at all.
118
503330
5000
μ—­μ‚¬μ μœΌλ‘œ 그듀은 μ• μ΄ˆμ— 그런 μ›μžμž¬ 가격이 μƒμŠΉμ΄ μ—†μ—ˆλ”λΌλ©΄ ν–ˆμ„ 만큼 더 λ‚˜μœ μƒνƒœμ— μ΄λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:28
That is not a forecast about how commodity prices go;
119
508330
4000
이건 μ›μžμž¬ 가격이 μƒμŠΉλ  λ•Œ μ–΄λ–€ 일이 μΌμ–΄λ‚˜λŠ” 지에 λŒ€ν•œ μ˜ˆκ³ κ°€ μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:32
it's a forecast of the consequences, the long-term consequences,
120
512330
4000
이건 결과에 λŒ€ν•œ μž₯κΈ°κ°„μ˜ 결과에 λŒ€ν•œ μ˜ˆκ³ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:36
for growth of an increase in prices.
121
516330
5000
가격 μƒμŠΉμ΄ 경제 κ°œλ°œμ— λ―ΈμΉ˜λŠ” 결과에 λŒ€ν•΄μ„œ λ§μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:41
So, what goes wrong? Why is there this "resource curse," as it's called?
122
521330
5000
κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€λ©΄ 무엇이 문제인 κ²λ‹ˆκΉŒ? 이 "μžμ›μ˜ μ €μ£Ό"λΌλŠ” 건 μ™œ μƒκΈ°λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
08:46
And again, I've looked at that, and it turns out
123
526330
3000
그리고 λ‚΄κ°€ λ‹€μ‹œ 이 이슈λ₯Ό λ³Ό λ•Œλ§ˆλ‹€ λ‚΄κ°€ κΉ¨λ‹«λŠ” 것은
08:49
that the critical issue is the level of governance,
124
529330
4000
μ€‘μš”ν•œ μ΄μŠˆλŠ” μ •μΉ˜μ˜ μˆ˜μ€€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:53
the initial level of economic governance,
125
533330
2000
초기 단계에 경제적 ν†΅μ œκ°€ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ λ˜λŠ”μ§€κ°€ μ€‘μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:55
when the resource booms accrue.
126
535330
3000
μ›μžμž¬ 뢐이 λˆ„μ λ  λ•Œ 말이죠.
08:58
In fact, if you've got good enough governance,
127
538330
2000
사싀 λ§Œμ•½ ν•œ κ΅­κ°€κ°€ μΆ©λΆ„νžˆ 쒋은 μ •μΉ˜ 체제λ₯Ό 가지고 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄
09:00
there is no resource boom.
128
540330
2000
μ›μžμž¬ 뢐 같은 건 μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:02
You go up in the short term, and then you go up even more in the long term.
129
542330
5000
그런 κ΅­κ°€λŠ” 단기간에 μ„±μž₯ν•˜κ³  μž₯κΈ°κ°„μ—λŠ” 더 μ„±μž₯ν•˜μ£ .
09:07
That's Norway, the richest country in Europe. It's Australia. It's Canada.
130
547330
6000
그게 λ…Έλ₯΄μ›¨μ΄μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. μœ λŸ½μ—μ„œ κ°€μž₯ λΆ€μœ ν•œ λ‚˜λΌμ£ . λ˜ν•œ μ˜€μŠ€νŠΈλ ˆμΌλ¦¬μ•„μ™€ μΊλ‚˜λ‹€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:13
The resource curse is entirely confined to countries
131
553330
2000
μžμ›μ˜ μ €μ£ΌλŠ” μ •μΉ˜κ°€ 잘 이루어지지 μ•ŠλŠ”
09:15
below a threshold of governance.
132
555330
2000
λ‚˜λΌμ— κ΅­ν•œλ˜μ„œ μΌμ–΄λ‚©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:17
They still go up in the short run.
133
557330
2000
κ·Έ λ‚˜λΌλ“€μ€ λ‹¨κΈ°κ°„μ—λŠ” κ²½μ œκ°€ μ„±μž₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:19
That's what we're seeing across the bottom billion at the moment.
134
559330
4000
κ·Έ μˆœκ°„μ— μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이듀 10μ–΅ μΈκ΅¬μ—μ„œ λ³΄λŠ” ν˜„μƒμ΄μ£ 
09:23
The best growth rates they've had -- ever.
135
563330
3000
그리고 그것이 그듀이 κ°€μ§ˆ 수 μžˆλŠ” 졜고 경제 μ„±μž₯λ₯ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:26
And the question is whether the short run will persist.
136
566330
6000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€ 이 λ‹¨κΈ°κ°„μ˜ μ„±μž₯λ₯ μ΄ μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ μ§€μ†λ˜λŠλƒ ν•˜λŠ” 것이죠
09:32
And with bad governance historically, over the last 40 years, it hasn't.
137
572330
4000
그리고 μ§€λ‚œ 40λ…„ λ™μ•ˆμ˜ ν˜•νŽΈμ—†λŠ” μ •λΆ€μ²΄μ œμ˜ 역사 μ†μ—μ„œ 그건 μ§€μ†λ˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:36
It's countries like Nigeria, which are worse off than if they'd never had oil.
138
576330
8000
λ‚˜μ΄μ§€λ¦¬μ•„ 같은 λ‚˜λΌλŠ” 차라리 그듀이 기름이 μ—†μ—ˆλ˜ 것이 λ‚˜μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:44
So, there's a threshold level above which you go up in the long term,
139
584330
5000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μž₯κΈ°κ°„μ—λŠ” ν•œκ³„μ μ΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:49
and below which you go down.
140
589330
2000
그리고 κ·Έ λ°‘μœΌλ‘œ 계속 λ‚΄λ €κ°€κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€
09:51
Just to benchmark that threshold,
141
591330
2000
κ·Έ ν•œκ³„μ μ— λŒ€ν•΄ μƒκ°ν•΄λ³΄μžλ©΄
09:53
it's about the governance level of Portugal in the mid 1980s.
142
593330
7000
1980λ…„λŒ€ μ€‘λ°˜μ˜ 포λ₯΄νˆ¬κ°ˆμ˜ μ •μΉ˜ μˆ˜μ€€μ΄ κ·Έ 예일 κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:00
So, the question is, are the bottom billion above or below that threshold?
143
600330
5000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€ μ΅œν•˜μΈ΅μ˜ 10μ–΅ 인ꡬ가 κ·Έ ν•œκ³„μ  μœ„μ— μžˆλŠλƒ, 밑에 μžˆλŠλƒν•˜λŠ” 것이죠
10:05
Now, there's one big change since the commodity booms of the 1970s,
144
605330
5000
1970λ…„λŒ€μ˜ μ›μžμž¬ 뢐 이후에 큰 λ³€ν™”κ°€ ν•˜λ‚˜ μžˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:10
and that is the spread of democracy.
145
610330
3000
그건 민주주의의 ν™•μ‚°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:13
So I thought, well, maybe that is the thing
146
613330
2000
μ €λŠ” 이 뢀뢄을 μ€‘μš”ν•˜κ²Œ μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:15
which has transformed governance in the bottom billion.
147
615330
2000
이게 이 λ°”λ‹₯ 10μ–΅μ˜ μ •μΉ˜λ₯Ό λ°”κΏ”λ†“μ•˜μ„ μˆ˜λ„ μžˆκ±°λ“ μš”
10:17
Maybe we can be more optimistic because of the spread of democracy.
148
617330
4000
민주주의의 ν™•μ‚° λ•Œλ¬Έμ— μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ’€ 더 낙관적일 수 μžˆμ„ 지도 λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:21
So, I looked. Democracy does have significant effects --
149
621330
5000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ €λŠ” κ·Έ ν˜„μƒμ„ μ§€μΌœλ΄€κ³  λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜λŠ” μ‹¬κ°ν•œ 영ν–₯을 미치긴 ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:26
and unfortunately, they're adverse.
150
626330
3000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ λΆˆν–‰νžˆλ„ 그건 λ‚˜μœ μͺ½μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:29
Democracies make even more of a mess of these resource booms than autocracies.
151
629330
6000
λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜λŠ” λ…μž¬λ³΄λ‹€λ„ 이 μ›μžμž¬ 뢐을 더 ν˜Όλž€μŠ€λŸ½κ²Œ λ§Œλ“€μ–΄ λ†“μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:35
At that stage I just wanted to abandon the research, but --
152
635330
3000
그리고 κ·Έ λ‹¨κ³„μ—μ„œ μ „ κ·Έλƒ₯ 이 연ꡬλ₯Ό λ•Œλ €μΉ˜κ³  μ‹Άμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€ κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜
10:38
(Laughter)
153
638330
2000
(μ›ƒμŒ)
10:40
-- it turns out that democracy is a little bit more complicated than that.
154
640330
3000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜λŠ” μ œκ°€ μƒκ°ν•œ 것보닀 μ’€ 더 μ„¬μ„Έν•˜λ”κ΅°μš”
10:43
Because there are two distinct aspects of democracy:
155
643330
4000
λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜λŠ” 두 κ°€μ§€μ˜ λ‘λ“œλŸ¬μ§„ νŠΉμ§•λ“€μ΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:47
there's electoral competition, which determines how you acquire power,
156
647330
5000
μ„ κ±° 경쟁이 있죠 이건 μ§€λ„μžκ°€ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ νž˜μ„ μ–»λŠ” 지λ₯Ό κ²°μ •ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:52
and there are checks and balances, which determine how you use power.
157
652330
6000
κ·Έ λ‹€μŒμ—” κ²¬μ œμ™€ κ· ν˜•μ΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€ 그건 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ κ·Έ νž˜μ„ μ“°λŠ” 지와 κ΄€κ³„λœ 것이죠
10:58
It turns out that electoral competition is the thing
158
658330
2000
μ„ κ±° 경쟁이 λ¬Έμ œκ°€ λμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:00
that's doing the damage with democracy,
159
660330
2000
그게 λ―Όμ£Όμ£Όμ˜μ— ν•΄κ°€ λμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:02
whereas strong checks and balances make resource booms good.
160
662330
5000
λ°˜λŒ€λ‘œ κ°•λ ₯ν•œ κ²¬μ œμ™€ κ· ν˜•μ€ μ›μžμž¬ 뢐에 μ’‹μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:07
And so, what the countries of the bottom billion need
161
667330
3000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ œκ°€ λ‚΄λ¦° 결둠은 μ΅œν•˜μΈ΅ 10얡에 ν•„μš”ν•œ 것은
11:10
is very strong checks and balances.
162
670330
2000
κ°•λ ₯ν•œ κ²¬μ œμ™€ κ· ν˜•μ΄λΌλŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:12
They haven't got them.
163
672330
2000
그듀은 아직 이걸 갖지 λͺ»ν–ˆμ£ 
11:14
They got instant democracy in the 1990s:
164
674330
3000
그듀은 1990λ…„λŒ€μ— 민주주의λ₯Ό μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:17
elections without checks and balances.
165
677330
3000
κ²¬μ œμ™€ κ· ν˜•μ΄ μ—†λŠ” μ„ κ±°λ“€μ΄μ—ˆμ£ 
11:20
How can we help improve governance and introduce checks and balances?
166
680330
6000
μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ ν•˜λ©΄ μ΄λ“€μ˜ μ •μΉ˜μ  μˆ˜μ€€μ„ ν–₯μƒμ‹œν‚€κ³  κ²¬μ œμ™€ κ· ν˜•μ„ λ„μž…ν•  수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
11:26
In all the societies of the bottom billion,
167
686330
2000
μ΅œν•˜μΈ΅ 10μ–΅μ˜ λͺ¨λ“  μ‚¬νšŒμ—μ„œ
11:28
there are intense struggles to do just that.
168
688330
5000
κ±°κΈ°μ—” 이 일을 ν•˜λ €λŠ” κ°•λ ₯ν•œ λ…Έλ ₯이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:33
The simple proposal is that we should have some international standards,
169
693330
5000
κ°„λ‹¨ν•œ μ œμ•ˆμ€ μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ ꡭ제적인 ν‘œμ€€μ΄ ν•„μš”ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:38
which will be voluntary, but which would spell out the key decision points
170
698330
5000
그것을 ν•˜λŠ” 건 μžλ°œμ μ΄μ§€λ§Œ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” ν‚€ ν¬μΈνŠΈλ“€μ΄ 무엇인지 μ •ν•  ν•„μš”κ°€ 있고
11:43
that need to be taken in order
171
703330
3000
κ·Έκ±Έ μˆœμ„œλŒ€λ‘œ ν•  ν•„μš”κ°€ 있으며
11:46
to harness these resource revenues.
172
706330
3000
μž¬μ •μ„ 효율적으둜 λ°°λΆ„ν•  ν•„μš”κ°€ μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:49
We know these international standards work
173
709330
2000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 이듀 ꡭ제 ν‘œμ€€μ΄ λœλ‹€λŠ” κ±Έ μ••λ‹ˆλ‹€
11:51
because we've already got one.
174
711330
2000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 그게 λœλ‹€λŠ” κ±Έ μ•Œκ³  μžˆμœΌλ‹ˆκΉŒμš”
11:53
It's called the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.
175
713330
3000
λ°”λ‘œ EITI(μžμ›κ°œλ°œμ‚¬μ—… 투λͺ…μ„  확보선언) μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:56
That is the very simple idea that governments should report
176
716330
5000
κ΅­λ―Όλ“€μ—κ²Œ μˆ˜μž…μ„ 투λͺ…ν•˜κ²Œ κ³΅κ°œν•˜λŠ”
12:01
to their citizens what revenues they have.
177
721330
3000
μ•„μ£Ό μ‰¬μš΄ λ°©λ²•μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:04
No sooner was it proposed
178
724330
2000
λ‚˜μ΄μ§€λ¦¬μ•„μ˜ κ°œν˜κ°€λ“€μ€ 곧 이 방법을 λ°›μ•„λ“€μ—¬μ„œ
12:06
than reformers in Nigeria adopted it, pushed it and published the revenues in the paper.
179
726330
7000
μˆ˜μž…μ„ κ³΅μ‹λ¬Έμ„œλ‘œ λ°œν–‰ν•˜μ—¬ κ³΅κ°œν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:13
Nigerian newspapers circulations spiked.
180
733330
2000
λ‚˜μ΄μ§€λ¦¬μ•„ 신문듀은 게재λ₯Ό κ±°λΆ€ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
12:15
People wanted to know what their government was getting
181
735330
3000
μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ μžμ‹ λ“€μ˜ μ •λΆ€μ˜ μˆ˜μž…μ— λŒ€ν•΄
12:18
in terms of revenue.
182
738330
3000
μ•Œκ³  μ‹Άμ–΄ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:21
So, we know it works. What would the content be of these international standards?
183
741330
7000
즉 이 μ •μ±…μ˜ νš¨μš©μ„±μ„ μ•Œ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. ꡭ제적 ν‘œμ€€μ—λŠ” μ–΄λ–€ λ‚΄μš©μ΄ ν¬ν•¨λ˜μ–΄μ•Ό ν• κΉŒμš”?
12:28
I can't go through all of them, but I'll give you an example.
184
748330
5000
λͺ¨λ‘ λ‹€ μ†Œκ°œλŠ” λͺ»ν•˜κ² μ§€λ§Œ, 예λ₯Ό ν•˜λ‚˜ λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦¬μ§€μš”.
12:33
The first is how to take the resources out of the ground --
185
753330
4000
첫 λ²ˆμ§ΈλŠ” μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μžμ›λ“€μ„ μ§€λ°˜μœΌλ‘œλΆ€ν„° μ±„μ·¨ν•˜λŠλƒν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:37
the economic processes, taking the resources out of the ground
186
757330
3000
κ·Έ μžμ›λ“€μ„ μ±„μ·¨ν•˜λŠ” 경제적 μ ˆμ°¨λ“€μ— κ΄€ν•œ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:40
and putting assets on top of the ground.
187
760330
3000
그리고 μžμ‚°μ„ κ·Έ 기반 μœ„μ— μΆ•μ ν•˜λŠ” 것에 λŒ€ν•΄μ„œμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:43
And the first step in that is selling the rights to resource extraction.
188
763330
4000
κ·Έ 첫 번째 과정은 λ¨Όμ € μžμ› 채취 κΆŒλ¦¬λ“€μ„ νŒŒλŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:47
You know how rights to resource extraction are being sold at the moment,
189
767330
4000
당신은 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ κ·Έ μžμ› 채취 κΆŒλ¦¬λ“€μ΄ κ·Έ μˆœκ°„μ— νŒ”λ¦¬λŠ” 지 μ•Œκ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€
12:51
how they've been sold over the last 40 years?
190
771330
2000
그리고 κ·Έ 것이 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ κ·Έ ν›„ 40λ…„ λ™μ•ˆ νŒ”λ¦¬λŠ” 지에 λŒ€ν•΄μ„œλ„μš”
12:53
A company flies in, does a deal with a minister.
191
773330
4000
기업이 κ΄€μ—¬ν•˜κ²Œ 되고, μ •λΆ€ μž₯κ΄€κ³Ό 거래λ₯Ό ν•˜κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:57
And that's great for the company,
192
777330
2000
κ·Έ νšŒμ‚¬μ— ꡉμž₯ν•œ μΌμ΄μ§€μš”.
12:59
and it's quite often great for the minister --
193
779330
2000
그리고 κ·Έ μž₯κ΄€ν•œν…Œλ„ 쒋은 일이죠, λ§Žμ€ κ²½μš°μ—.
13:01
(Laughter)
194
781330
1000
(μ›ƒμŒ)
13:02
-- and it's not great for their country.
195
782330
3000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ κ·Έ λ‚˜λΌμ—λŠ” 쒋지 μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
13:05
There's a very simple institutional technology
196
785330
2000
여기에 λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€ 수 μžˆλŠ” μ•„μ£Ό λ‹¨μˆœν•œ
13:07
which can transform that,
197
787330
2000
μ œλ„μ  방법이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:09
and it's called verified auctions.
198
789330
5000
μž…μ¦λœ 경맀라고 λΆˆλ¦¬λŠ” λ°©λ²•μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:14
The public agency with the greatest expertise on Earth
199
794330
6000
지ꡬ에 λŒ€ν•΄μ„œ 전문성이 κ°€μž₯ λ›°μ–΄λ‚œ 곡적 κΈ°κ΅¬λŠ”
13:20
is of course the treasury -- that is, the British Treasury.
200
800330
3000
λ¬Όλ‘  μž¬λ¬΄λΆ€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 이 κ²½μš°μ— 영ꡭ μž¬λ¬΄λΆ€μ£ 
13:23
And the British Treasury decided that it would sell the rights
201
803330
3000
그리고 이 영ꡭ μž¬λ¬΄λΆ€κ°€ κ·Έ κΆŒλ¦¬λ“€μ„ 3μ„ΈλŒ€ λͺ¨λ°”일 νšŒμ‚¬μ—
13:26
to third-generation mobile phones
202
806330
2000
λ§€κ°ν•˜κΈ°λ‘œ ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:28
by working out what those rights were worth.
203
808330
3000
이 κΆŒλ¦¬λ“€μ˜ κ°€μΉ˜λ₯Ό νŒλ³„ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œ 말이죠.
13:31
They worked out they were worth two billion pounds.
204
811330
3000
그듀은 그것이 20μ‘° νŒŒμš΄λ“œ κ°€μΉ˜κ°€ μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ±Έ μ•Œμ•„λƒˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:34
Just in time, a set of economists got there and said,
205
814330
3000
κ·Έ μˆœκ°„ κ²½μ œν•™μžλ“€μ΄ λ“€μ–΄μ™€μ„œ λ§ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:37
"Why not try an auction? It'll reveal the value."
206
817330
3000
"μ™œ 경맀λ₯Ό ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ? κ°€μΉ˜λ₯Ό 더 λ†’μ—¬ μ€„ν…λ°μš”."
13:40
It went for 20 billion pounds through auction.
207
820330
4000
그건 20 μ‘° νŒŒμš΄λ“œλ‘œ 경맀에 μ˜¬λΌκ°”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:44
If the British Treasury can be out by a factor of 10,
208
824330
3000
λ§Œμ•½ 영ꡭ μž¬λ¬΄λΆ€κ°€ μ—΄ λ°° 높은 κ±°λž˜κ°€μ— μ˜ν•΄μ„œ λ°€λ¦°λ‹€λ©΄
13:47
think what the ministry of finance in Sierra Leone is going to be like.
209
827330
3000
μ‹œμ—λΌ 리옹의 재무 μž₯관이 μ–΄λ–€ ν‘œμ •μ„ 지을 지 μƒκ°ν•΄λ΄…μ‹œλ‹€.
13:50
(Laughter)
210
830330
1000
(μ›ƒμŒ)
13:51
When I put that to the President of Sierra Leone,
211
831330
2000
μ œκ°€ 이 아이디어λ₯Ό μ‹œμ—λΌ 리옹의 λŒ€ν†΅λ Ήμ—κ²Œ μ œμ•ˆν–ˆμ„ λ•Œ,
13:53
the next day he asked the World Bank to send him a team
212
833330
3000
κ·Έ λ‹€μŒ 날에 κ·ΈλŠ” μ„Έκ³„μ€ν–‰μ—κ²Œ κ·Έμ—κ²Œ νŒ€μ„ 보내달라고 ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:56
to give expertise on how to conduct auctions.
213
836330
5000
μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 경맀λ₯Ό ν•˜λŠ” 지에 λŒ€ν•œ 전문가듀을 λ§μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:01
There are five such decision points;
214
841330
2000
κ±°κΈ°μ—” λ‹€μ„― 가지 κ²°μ • μš”μΈλ“€μ΄ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:03
each one needs an international standard.
215
843330
4000
κ·Έ λͺ¨λ“  μš”μΈλ“€μ€ ꡭ제적 ν‘œμ€€μ„ μš”κ΅¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:07
If we could do it, we would change the world.
216
847330
4000
λ§Œμ•½ κ·Έκ±Έ ν•  수 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 세상을 λ°”κΏ€ 수 있죠.
14:11
We would be helping the reformers in these societies,
217
851330
4000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 이 λ‚˜λΌλ“€μ˜ κ°œν˜κ°€λ“€μ„ λ„μšΈ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:15
who are struggling for change.
218
855330
3000
그듀은 λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό μœ„ν•΄μ„œ μ• μ“°κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:18
That's our modest role. We cannot change these societies,
219
858330
4000
이것은 우리의 κ²Έμ†ν•œ μ—­ν• μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. μš°λ¦¬λŠ” κ·Έλ“€ μ‚¬νšŒλ₯Ό 바꾸지 λͺ»ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ,
14:22
but we can help the people in these societies
220
862330
3000
이 μ‚¬νšŒμ— μžˆλŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ„ λ„μšΈ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:25
who are struggling and usually failing,
221
865330
3000
λ…Έλ ₯ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ, λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„ μ‹€νŒ¨ν•˜λŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ„μš”.
14:28
because the odds are so stacked against them.
222
868330
6000
그것은 κ·Έλ“€μ—κ²Œ λ‹₯친 곀경이 λ„ˆλ¬΄ 많기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:34
And yet, we've not got these rules.
223
874330
3000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 아직 μš°λ¦¬λŠ” κ·Έκ±Έ 룰둜 받아듀이지 μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:37
If you think about it, the cost of promulgating international rules
224
877330
4000
μƒκ°ν•΄λ³΄μ„Έμš” ꡭ제적 룰듀을 κ³΅ν‘œν•˜λŠ” λΉ„μš©μ— λŒ€ν•΄μ„œ
14:41
is zilch -- nothing.
225
881330
3000
그것은... κ³΅μ§œμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:44
Why on Earth are they not there?
226
884330
4000
그런데 μ™œ 그것듀이 μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
14:48
I realized that the reason they're not there
227
888330
4000
μ €λŠ” 그것듀이 거기에 μ—†λŠ” 이유λ₯Ό κΉ¨λ‹¬μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:52
is that until we have a critical mass of informed citizens in our own societies,
228
892330
6000
그것은 μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이 지ꡬ상에 μΆ©λΆ„ν•œ 지식을 가진 μ‹œλ―Όλ“€μ΄ 있기 μ „κΉŒμ§€λŠ”
14:58
politicians will get away with gestures.
229
898330
3000
μ •μΉ˜μΈλ“€μ€ κ·Έλƒ₯ μ œμΈ μΈ„μ–΄λ§Œ μ·¨ν•˜κ³  λ¬ΌλŸ¬λ‚  수 있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:01
That unless we have an informed society,
230
901330
5000
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 지식을 가진 μ‚¬νšŒλ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€κΈ° μ „κΉŒμ§€λŠ”
15:06
what politicians do, especially in relation to Africa, is gestures:
231
906330
6000
μ •μΉ˜μΈλ“€μ΄ ν•˜λŠ” 것, 특히 아프리카에 κ΄€ν•΄μ„œλŠ” μ œμŠ€μΈ„μ–΄μ— λΆˆκ³Όν•˜λ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:12
things that look good, but don't work.
232
912330
3000
그건 보기에 μ’‹μ§€λ§Œ μ‹€μš©μ„±μ΄ μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:15
And so I realized we had to go through the business
233
915330
3000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ œκ°€ 깨달은 것은 μš°λ¦¬κ°€ ν•΄μ•Ό ν•  일은 λ°”λ‘œ
15:18
of building an informed citizenry.
234
918330
4000
ꡭ민듀을 κΉ¨λ‹«κ²Œ ν•˜λŠ” μΌμ΄λΌλŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:22
That's why I broke all the professional rules of conduct for an economist,
235
922330
5000
그것이 μ œκ°€ κ²½μ œν•™μžλ‘œμ„œμ˜ λͺ¨λ“  직업적인 ν–‰μœ„ 양식을 져버리고
15:27
and I wrote an economics book that you could read on a beach.
236
927330
3000
μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ ν•΄λ³€κ°€μ—μ„œ 읽을 수 μžˆλŠ” κ²½μ œν•™ 책을 μ“°λŠ” μ΄μœ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:30
(Laughter).
237
930330
5000
(μ›ƒμŒ)
15:35
However, I have to say, the process of communication
238
935330
4000
κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ œκ°€ λ§ν•΄μ•Όλ§Œ ν•˜λŠ” 것은 μ†Œν†΅μ˜ κ³Όμ •μ΄λž€ 것이
15:39
does not come naturally to me.
239
939330
2000
μžμ—°μŠ€λŸ½κ²Œ λŠκ»΄μ§€μ§€ μ•ŠλŠ”λ‹€λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:41
This is why I'm on this stage, but it's alarming.
240
941330
4000
그것이 μ œκ°€ μ—¬κΈ° μžˆλŠ” μ΄μœ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 이건 경각심을 일깨우기 μœ„ν•΄μ„œ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:45
I grew up in a culture of self-effacement.
241
945330
8000
μ €λŠ” 겸양이 미덕인 λ¬Έν™” 속에 μžλžμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:53
My wife showed me a blog comment on one of my last talks,
242
953330
4000
제 μ•„λ‚΄κ°€ μ–Όλ§ˆ 전에 강연에 κ΄€ν•œ λΈ”λ‘œκ·Έμ— 달린 λŒ“κΈ€μ„ λ³΄μ—¬μ€¬μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
15:57
and the blog comment said, "Collier is not charismatic --
243
957330
6000
κ·Έ λŒ“κΈ€μ€ "μ½œλ¦¬μ–΄λŠ” μΉ΄λ¦¬μŠ€λ§ˆμ μ΄μ§€ μ•Šλ„€μš”", μ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
16:03
(Laughter)
244
963330
3000
(μ›ƒμŒ)
16:06
-- but his arguments are compelling."
245
966330
3000
"κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 그의 μ£Όμž₯ν•˜λŠ” λ°”λŠ” 섀득될 수 밖에 μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€"
16:09
(Laughter)
246
969330
4000
(μ›ƒμŒ)
16:13
(Applause)
247
973330
7000
(λ°•μˆ˜)
16:20
If you agree with that sentiment,
248
980330
3000
λ§Œμ•½ 당신이 이 μ •μ„œμ— λ™μ‘°ν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
16:23
and if you agree that we need a critical mass of informed citizenry,
249
983330
6000
그리고 당신이 μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²ŒλŠ” κ΅μœ‘λ°›μ€ μ‹œλ―Όμ΄ ν•„μš”ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” 것에 λ™μ˜ν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
16:29
you will realize that I need you.
250
989330
4000
당신은 μ œκ°€ 당신이 ν•„μš”ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” 것을 κΉ¨λ‹«κ²Œ 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:33
Please, become ambassadors.
251
993330
2000
제발 그듀을 μœ„ν•œ 외ꡐ관이 λ˜μ–΄μ£Όμ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.
16:35
Thank you.
252
995330
2000
κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:37
(Applause)
253
997330
13000
(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7