The world's first crowdsourced space traffic monitoring system | Moriba Jah

53,801 views ใƒป 2019-08-06

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืชืจื’ื•ื: Allon Sasson ืขืจื™ื›ื”: Ido Dekkers
00:13
I am an astrodynamicist --
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ืื ื™ ืืกื˜ืจื•ื“ื™ื ืžื™ืงืื™ --
00:15
you know, like that guy Rich Purnell in the movie "The Martian."
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ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื, ื›ืžื• ื”ื‘ื—ื•ืจ ื”ื–ื”, ืจื™ืฅ' ืคืืจื ืœ, ื‘ืกืจื˜ "ืœื”ืฆื™ืœ ืืช ื˜ื•ืจืื™ ื•ื•ืื˜ื ื™".
00:19
And it's my job to study and predict motion of objects in space.
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ื•ื”ืชืคืงื™ื“ ืฉืœื™ ื”ื•ื ืœื—ืงื•ืจ ื•ืœื—ื–ื•ืช ืชื ื•ืขื” ืฉืœ ืขืฆืžื™ื ื‘ื—ืœืœ.
00:27
Currently we track about one percent of hazardous objects on orbit --
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ื›ื™ื•ื ืื ื—ื ื• ืขื•ืงื‘ื™ื ืื—ืจื™ ื›ืื—ื•ื– ืื—ื“ ืžื”ืขืฆืžื™ื ื”ืžืกื•ื›ื ื™ื ืฉื ืžืฆืื™ื ื‘ืžืกืœื•ืœ --
00:33
hazardous to services like location,
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ืžืกื•ื›ื ื™ื ืœืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื›ืžื• ืžื™ืงื•ื,
00:36
agriculture, banking,
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ื—ืงืœืื•ืช, ื‘ื ืงืื•ืช,
00:39
television and communications,
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ื˜ืœื•ื•ื™ื–ื™ื” ื•ืชืงืฉื•ืจืช,
00:41
and soon -- very soon --
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ื•ื‘ืงืจื•ื‘ -- ื‘ืงืจื•ื‘ ืžืื“ --
00:43
even the internet itself.
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ื’ื ืœืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜ ืขืฆืžื•.
00:45
Now these services are not protected from, roughly, half a million objects
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ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื”ืœืœื• ืื™ื ื ืžื•ื’ื ื™ื ืžืคื ื™, ื‘ืขืจืš, ื—ืฆื™ ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืขืฆืžื™ื
00:52
the size of a speck of paint
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ื‘ื’ื“ืœื™ื ื”ื—ืœ ืžื›ืชื ืฉืœ ืฆื‘ืข
00:55
all the way to a school bus in size.
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ื•ืขื“ ืœื’ื•ื“ืœ ืฉืœ ืื•ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืก ื‘ื™ืช-ืกืคืจ.
00:58
A speck of paint,
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ื›ืชื ืฆื‘ืข,
01:00
traveling at the right speed,
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ืฉื˜ืก ื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช ื”ื ื›ื•ื ื”,
01:03
impacting one of these objects,
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ื•ืคื•ื’ืข ื‘ืื—ื“ ืžื”ืขืฆืžื™ื ื”ืœืœื•,
01:04
could render it absolutely useless.
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ืขืœื•ืœ ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืื•ืชื• ืœื—ืกืจ ืชื•ืขืœืช ืœื—ืœื•ื˜ื™ืŸ.
01:08
But we can't track things as small as a speck of paint.
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ืžืกื•ื’ืœื™ื ืœืขืงื•ื‘ ืื—ืจื™ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืงื˜ื ื™ื ื›ืžื• ื›ืชื ืฆื‘ืข.
01:12
We can only track things as small as say, a smartphone.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืขืงื•ื‘ ืจืง ืื—ืจื™ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœ ืฉืœ ืกืžืืจื˜ืคื•ืŸ.
01:17
So of this half million objects that we should be concerned about,
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ื›ืš ืฉืžืชื•ืš ื—ืฆื™ ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื”ืขืฆืžื™ื ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื•ื“ืื’ื™ื ื‘ื’ืœืœื,
01:22
we can only track about 26,000 of these objects.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืกื•ื’ืœื™ื ืœืขืงื•ื‘ ืื—ืจื™ ื‘ืขืจืš 26,000 ืขืฆืžื™ื ื‘ืœื‘ื“.
01:26
And of these 26,000, only 2,000 actually work.
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ื•ืžืชื•ืš ื”- 26,000 ื”ืืœื•, ืจืง 2,000 ื‘ืืžืช ืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ื.
01:33
Everything else
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ื›ืœ ื”ืฉืืจ
01:35
is garbage.
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ื”ื ื–ื‘ืœ.
01:38
That's a lot of garbage.
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ื–ื” ื”ืžื•ืŸ ื–ื‘ืœ.
01:40
To make things a little bit worse,
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ื—ืžื™ืจ ืžืขื˜ ืืช ื”ืžืฆื‘,
01:43
most of what we launch into orbit never comes back.
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ืจื•ื‘ ืžื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉื’ืจื™ื ืœืžืกืœื•ืœ ืื™ื ื• ื—ื•ื–ืจ ืœืขื•ืœื.
01:49
We send the satellite in orbit,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉื’ืจื™ื ืœื•ื•ื™ื™ืŸ ืœืžืกืœื•ืœ,
01:52
it stops working, it runs out of fuel,
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ื”ื•ื ืžืคืกื™ืง ืœืขื‘ื•ื“, ื ื’ืžืจ ืœื• ื”ื“ืœืง,
01:55
and we send something else up ...
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ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉื’ืจื™ื ืžืฉื”ื• ืื—ืจ...
01:57
and then we send up something else ...
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ื•ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉื’ืจื™ื ืžืฉื”ื• ืื—ืจ...
02:00
and then something else.
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ื•ืื– ืžืฉื”ื• ืื—ืจ.
02:01
And every once in a while,
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ื•ืื—ืช ืœืคืจืง ื–ืžืŸ ืžืกื•ื™ื,
02:03
two of these things will collide with each other
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ืฉื ื™ื™ื ืžื”ืขืฆืžื™ื ื”ืืœื• ื™ืชื ื’ืฉื• ื”ืื—ื“ ื‘ืฉื ื™
02:05
or one of these things will explode,
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ืื• ืฉืื—ื“ ืžื”ื ื™ืชืคื•ืฆืฅ,
02:07
or even worse,
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ืื• ื’ืจื•ืข ืžื›ืš,
02:08
somebody might just happen to destroy one of their satellites on orbit,
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ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืขืœื•ืœ ืœื”ืฉืžื™ื“ ืืช ืื—ื“ ื”ืœื•ื•ื™ื™ื ื™ื ื‘ืžืกืœื•ืœ
02:13
and this generates many, many more pieces,
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ื•ื–ื” ื™ื•ืฆืจ ื”ืจื‘ื” ืžืื“ ื—ืชื™ื›ื•ืช ื ื•ืกืคื•ืช,
02:17
most of which also never come back.
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ืฉืจื•ื‘ืŸ ืœืขื•ืœื ืœื ื™ื—ื–ืจื•.
02:20
Now these things are not just randomly scattered in orbit.
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืืœื• ืœื ืจืง ืžืคื•ื–ืจื™ื ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืืงืจืื™ ื‘ืžืกืœื•ืœ.
02:25
It turns out that given the curvature of space-time,
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ืžืกืชื‘ืจ ืฉื‘ื’ืœืœ ืขื™ืงื•ื ื”ืžืจื—ื‘ ื•ื”ื–ืžืŸ,
02:28
there are ideal locations
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ื™ืฉื ื ืžื™ืงื•ืžื™ื ืื™ื“ื™ืืœื™ื™ื
02:30
where we put some of these satellites --
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ืฉื‘ื”ื ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืžืงืžื™ื ืืช ื”ืœื•ื•ื™ื™ื ื™ื ื”ืืœื• --
02:32
think of these as space highways.
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ืชื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœื™ื”ื ื›ืžื• ืขืœ ื›ื‘ื™ืฉื™ื ืžื”ื™ืจื™ื ื‘ื—ืœืœ.
02:37
Very much like highways on earth,
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ื‘ื“ื•ืžื” ืžืื“ ืœื›ื‘ื™ืฉื™ื ืžื”ื™ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื›ื“ื•ืจ ื”ืืจืฅ,
02:39
these space highways can only take up a maximum capacity of traffic
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ื”ื›ื‘ื™ืฉื™ื ื”ืžื”ื™ืจื™ื ื‘ื—ืœืœ ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื›ื™ืœ ื›ืžื•ืช ืžื™ืจื‘ื™ืช ืฉืœ ืชื ื•ืขื”
02:44
to sustain space-safe operations.
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ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœื”ื‘ื˜ื™ื— ืคืขื™ืœื•ืช ื—ืœืœ ื‘ื˜ื•ื—ื”.
02:49
Unlike highways on earth,
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ื‘ืฉื•ื ื” ืžื›ื‘ื™ืฉื™ื ืžื”ื™ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื›ื“ื•ืจ ื”ืืจืฅ,
02:51
there are actually no space traffic rules.
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ืื™ืŸ ืœืžืขืฉื” ื›ืœืœื™ื ืœืชื ื•ืขื” ื‘ื—ืœืœ.
02:53
None whatsoever, OK?
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ืื™ืŸ ื‘ื›ืœืœ, ืื•ืงื™ื™?
02:57
Wow.
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ื•ื•ืื•.
03:00
What could possibly go wrong with that?
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ืžื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ืฉืชื‘ืฉ ื‘ืžืฆื‘ ื”ื–ื”?
03:02
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
03:04
Now, what would be really nice
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ื™ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืืžืช ื ื—ืžื“
03:06
is if we had something like a space traffic map,
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ืื ื™ื”ื™ื” ืœื ื• ืžืฉื”ื• ื›ืžื• ืžืคืช ืชื ื•ืขื” ื‘ื—ืœืœ,
03:10
like a Waze for space that I could look up
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ื›ืžื• "ื•ื•ื™ื™ื–" ืœื—ืœืœ ืฉืื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ื‘ื™ื˜ ื‘ื•
03:13
and see what the current traffic conditions are in space,
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ื•ืœืจืื•ืช ืžื” ืชื ืื™ ื”ื ืกื™ืขื” ื”ื ื•ื›ื—ื™ื™ื ื‘ื—ืœืœ.
03:16
maybe even predict these.
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ืื•ืœื™ ืืคื™ืœื• ืœื—ื–ื•ืช ืื•ืชื.
03:17
The problem with that, however,
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ืขื ื–ื”,
03:19
is that ask five different people,
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ื”ื™ื ืฉืื ืชืฉืืœื• ื—ืžื™ืฉื” ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉื•ื ื™ื,
03:24
"What's going on in orbit?
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"ืžื” ืงื•ืจื” ื‘ืžืกืœื•ืœ?
03:25
Where are things going?"
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ืœืืŸ ื–ื” ืžืชืงื“ื?"
03:27
and you're probably going to get 10 different answers.
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ืชืงื‘ืœื• ื›ื ืจืื” ืขืฉืจ ืชืฉื•ื‘ื•ืช ืฉื•ื ื•ืช.
03:29
Why is that?
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ืœืžื” ื–ื” ื”ืžืฆื‘?
03:31
It's because information about things on orbit is not commonly shared either.
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ื–ื” ืžืคื ื™ ืฉื”ืžื™ื“ืข ืขืœ ืขืฆืžื™ื ื‘ืžืกืœื•ืœ ื‘ื“ืจืš ื›ืœืœ ืื™ื ื• ืžืฉื•ืชืฃ.
03:37
So what if we had a globally accessible,
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ืื– ืžื” ืื ืชื”ื™ื” ืœื ื• ืžืขืจื›ืช ืžื™ื“ืข ื ื’ื™ืฉื” ืขื•ืœืžื™ืช,
03:39
open and transparent space traffic information system
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ืคืชื•ื—ื” ื•ืฉืงื•ืคื” ืขืœ ืชื ื•ืขื” ื‘ื—ืœืœ
03:43
that can inform the public of where everything is located
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ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœืขื“ื›ืŸ ืืช ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจ ื”ื™ื›ืŸ ื›ืœ ื“ื‘ืจ ืžืžื•ืงื
03:46
to try to keep space safe and sustainable?
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืืช ื”ื—ืœืœ ืœื‘ื˜ื•ื— ื•ื‘ืจ-ืงื™ื™ืžื?
03:49
And what if the system could be used
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ื•ืžื” ืื ื ื™ืชืŸ ื™ื”ื™ื” ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ืžืขืจื›ืช
03:52
to form evidence-based norms of behavior --
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ื›ืœืœื™ ื”ืชื ื”ื’ื•ืช ืžื‘ื•ืกืกื™-ื”ื•ื›ื—ื•ืช --
03:55
these space traffic rules?
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ืื•ืชื ื›ืœืœื™ ืชื ื•ืขื” ื‘ื—ืœืœ?
03:57
So I developed ASTRIAGraph,
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ืœื›ืŸ ืคื™ืชื—ืชื™ ืืช ASTRIAGraph,
04:00
the world's first crowdsourced, space traffic monitoring system
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ืžืขืจื›ืช ื ื™ื˜ื•ืจ ื”ืชื ื•ืขื” ื‘ื—ืœืœ ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืฉืžื‘ื•ืกืกืช ืขืœ ืžื™ืงื•ืจ ื”ืžื•ื ื™ื,
04:03
at the University of Texas at Austin.
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ื‘ืื•ื ื™ื‘ืจืกื™ื˜ืช ื˜ืงืกืก ื‘ืื•ืกื˜ื™ืŸ.
04:06
ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources of information from around the globe --
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ASTRIAGraph ืžืฉืœื‘ืช ืžืงื•ืจื•ืช ืžื™ื“ืข ืฉื•ื ื™ื ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื --
04:12
government, industry and academia --
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ืžืžืฉืœื”, ืชืขืฉื™ื™ื” ื•ืืงื“ืžื™ื” --
04:13
and represents this in a common framework that anybody can access today.
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ื•ืžืฆื™ื’ื” ืื•ืชื• ืขืœ ืชืฉืชื™ืช ืžืฉื•ืชืคืช ืฉื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื’ืฉืช ืืœื™ื” ื”ื™ื•ื.
04:19
Here, you can see 26,000 objects orbiting the earth,
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ื›ืืŸ ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืจืื•ืช 26,000 ืขืฆืžื™ื ืฉืžืงื™ืคื™ื ืืช ื›ื“ื•ืจ ื”ืืจืฅ,
04:23
multiple opinions,
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ื‘ืฉื™ื˜ื•ืช ืฉื•ื ื•ืช,
04:25
and it gets updated in near real time.
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ื•ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืžืชืขื“ื›ื ื™ื ืงืจื•ื‘ ืœื–ืžืŸ ืืžืช.
04:28
But back to my problem of space traffic map:
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ืื‘ืœ, ื‘ื—ื–ืจื” ืœื‘ืขื™ื” ืฉืœื™ ืฉืœ ืžืคืช ืชื ื•ืขืช ื—ืœืœ:
04:32
What if you only had information from the US government?
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ืžื” ืื ื”ื™ื• ืœื ื• ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืจืง ืžืžืžืฉืœืช ืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช?
04:36
Well, in that case, that's what your space traffic map would look like.
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ื‘ืžืงืจื” ื›ื–ื” ื›ืš ื”ื™ืชื” ื ืจืื™ืช ืžืคืช ื”ืชื ื•ืขื” ื‘ื—ืœืœ.
04:39
But what do the Russians think?
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ื”ืจื•ืกื™ื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื?
04:45
That looks significantly different.
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ื–ื” ื ืจืื” ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืื“.
04:47
Who's right? Who's wrong?
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ืžื™ ืฆื•ื“ืง? ืžื™ ื˜ื•ืขื”?
04:50
What should I believe?
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ืœืžื” ืื ื™ ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ืืžื™ืŸ?
04:51
What could I trust?
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ื‘ืžื” ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื‘ื˜ื•ื—?
04:52
This is part of the issue.
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ื–ื” ื—ืœืง ืžื”ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ.
04:55
In the absence of this framework to monitor space-actor behavior,
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ื‘ื”ื™ืขื“ืจ ืชืฉืชื™ืช ื›ื–ื• ืœื ื™ื˜ื•ืจ ื”ืชื ื”ื’ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืฉื—ืงื ื™ื ื‘ื—ืœืœ,
05:03
to monitor activity in space --
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ืœื ื™ื˜ื•ืจ ืคืขื™ืœื•ืช ื‘ื—ืœืœ --
05:05
where these objects are located --
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ื”ื™ื›ืŸ ื”ืขืฆืžื™ื ื”ืืœื• ืžืžื•ืงืžื™ื --
05:07
to reconcile these inconsistencies
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ืœื”ืกื“ื™ืจ ืืช ื—ื•ืกืจ ื”ืขืงื‘ื™ื•ืช ื”ื–ื•
05:10
and make this knowledge commonplace,
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ื•ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืืช ื”ื™ื“ืข ื”ื–ื” ืœื ืคื•ืฅ,
05:12
we actually risk losing the ability
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืœืžืขืฉื” ืžืกืชื›ื ื™ื ื‘ืื™ื‘ื•ื“ ื”ื™ื›ื•ืœืช
05:17
to use space for humanity's benefit.
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ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ื—ืœืœ ืœืชื•ืขืœืช ื”ืื ื•ืฉื•ืช.
05:22
Thank you very much.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื”.
05:23
(Applause and cheers)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื ื•ืชืฉื•ืื•ืช)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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