The world's first crowdsourced space traffic monitoring system | Moriba Jah

53,714 views ・ 2019-08-06

TED


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譯者: Helen Chang 審譯者: Marssi Draw
00:13
I am an astrodynamicist --
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我是個天體動力學家,
00:15
you know, like that guy Rich Purnell in the movie "The Martian."
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就像電影《絕地救援》中的 李察·普奈爾。
00:19
And it's my job to study and predict motion of objects in space.
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我研究和預測物體在太空中的運動。
00:27
Currently we track about one percent of hazardous objects on orbit --
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目前我們追蹤大約 1% 在軌道上的危險物體,
00:33
hazardous to services like location,
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它們會危害衛星定位、
00:36
agriculture, banking,
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農業、銀行、
00:39
television and communications,
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電視和通信等服務,
00:41
and soon -- very soon --
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很快也會危害到網際網路本身。
00:43
even the internet itself.
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00:45
Now these services are not protected from, roughly, half a million objects
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這些服務也許會 被大約五十萬種物品危害,
00:52
the size of a speck of paint
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這些東西的大小可能從一滴油漆
00:55
all the way to a school bus in size.
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到一台校車。
00:58
A speck of paint,
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如果一點漆的行進速度恰好,
01:00
traveling at the right speed,
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它撞上其中的任一物體
01:03
impacting one of these objects,
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01:04
could render it absolutely useless.
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都可能令其作廢。
01:08
But we can't track things as small as a speck of paint.
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但我們無法追蹤 像油漆這樣小的東西,
01:12
We can only track things as small as say, a smartphone.
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只能追蹤像智慧手機 這樣大小的東西。
01:17
So of this half million objects that we should be concerned about,
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因此在應該注意的五十萬個對象中,
01:22
we can only track about 26,000 of these objects.
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我們只能追蹤其中大約兩萬六千個,
01:26
And of these 26,000, only 2,000 actually work.
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而這兩萬六千個當中 只有兩千個仍有作用。
01:33
Everything else
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其他一切都是垃圾。
01:35
is garbage.
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01:38
That's a lot of garbage.
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很多垃圾。
01:40
To make things a little bit worse,
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更糟的是
01:43
most of what we launch into orbit never comes back.
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我們射上軌道的大部分東西
不會回地球。
01:49
We send the satellite in orbit,
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我們將衛星送入軌道,
01:52
it stops working, it runs out of fuel,
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它壞了或燃料耗盡了,
01:55
and we send something else up ...
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我們就發射其他的......
01:57
and then we send up something else ...
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再發射其他的......
02:00
and then something else.
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又再發射其他的。
02:01
And every once in a while,
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每隔一段時間,
02:03
two of these things will collide with each other
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有些可能會相撞
02:05
or one of these things will explode,
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或爆炸;
02:07
or even worse,
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甚至更糟糕的是
02:08
somebody might just happen to destroy one of their satellites on orbit,
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軌道上的衛星被人摧毀,
02:13
and this generates many, many more pieces,
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產生更多的碎片,
02:17
most of which also never come back.
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大部分永遠不會回到地面上。
02:20
Now these things are not just randomly scattered in orbit.
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這些東西不僅隨機散落在軌道中;
02:25
It turns out that given the curvature of space-time,
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根據時空的曲率,
02:28
there are ideal locations
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存在著一些放置衛星的理想位置,
02:30
where we put some of these satellites --
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02:32
think of these as space highways.
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可將其視為太空公路。
02:37
Very much like highways on earth,
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這些太空公路非常像 地球上的高速公路,
02:39
these space highways can only take up a maximum capacity of traffic
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它們佔用最大的交通容量
以安全地維持太空營運。
02:44
to sustain space-safe operations.
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02:49
Unlike highways on earth,
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但它與地球上的高速公路不同,
02:51
there are actually no space traffic rules.
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它們沒有實際的太空交通規則。
02:53
None whatsoever, OK?
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沒有,知道嗎?
02:57
Wow.
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哇。
03:00
What could possibly go wrong with that?
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能出什麼差錯呢?
03:02
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:04
Now, what would be really nice
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如果我們有太空的交通地圖就很棒,
03:06
is if we had something like a space traffic map,
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03:10
like a Waze for space that I could look up
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就像我可以查太空版的位智(Waze),
03:13
and see what the current traffic conditions are in space,
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看看當前的太空交通狀況,
03:16
maybe even predict these.
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甚至還可以預測交通。
03:17
The problem with that, however,
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然而問題是
03:19
is that ask five different people,
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問五個不同的人:
03:24
"What's going on in orbit?
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「軌道上發生了什麼事?在哪裡?」
03:25
Where are things going?"
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03:27
and you're probably going to get 10 different answers.
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可能會得到十個不同的答案。
03:29
Why is that?
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為什麼呢?
03:31
It's because information about things on orbit is not commonly shared either.
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是因為軌道上物體的 相關訊息沒被共享。
03:37
So what if we had a globally accessible,
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那麼,如果我們有個
可供全球讀取、開放和透明的 太空交通訊息系統,
03:39
open and transparent space traffic information system
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03:43
that can inform the public of where everything is located
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能夠告知公眾一切所在的位置,
03:46
to try to keep space safe and sustainable?
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得以確保太空的安全和永續發展呢?
03:49
And what if the system could be used
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如果可以透過運用該系統
03:52
to form evidence-based norms of behavior --
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來建立以實證為基礎的 太空交通規則行為規範呢?
03:55
these space traffic rules?
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03:57
So I developed ASTRIAGraph,
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因此,我開發了 ASTRIAGraph,
04:00
the world's first crowdsourced, space traffic monitoring system
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這是位在德州大學奧斯汀分校,
世上第一個以群眾外包 完成的太空交通監控系統。
04:03
at the University of Texas at Austin.
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04:06
ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources of information from around the globe --
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ASTRIAGraph 結合 來自全球各地的多種訊息來源——
04:12
government, industry and academia --
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政府、工業和學術界——
04:13
and represents this in a common framework that anybody can access today.
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建在人人都可以讀取的共同框架中。
04:19
Here, you can see 26,000 objects orbiting the earth,
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在這裡看得到圍繞地球運行的 兩萬六千個物體、
04:23
multiple opinions,
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源自多個看法,
04:25
and it gets updated in near real time.
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並且近乎即時更新。
04:28
But back to my problem of space traffic map:
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回到我的太空交通地圖問題:
04:32
What if you only had information from the US government?
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如果只收得到美國政府 提供的訊息會怎樣?
04:36
Well, in that case, that's what your space traffic map would look like.
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那麼,太空交通地圖就是這模樣。
04:39
But what do the Russians think?
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俄國人的呢?
04:45
That looks significantly different.
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看起來迥異。
04:47
Who's right? Who's wrong?
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誰對誰錯?
04:50
What should I believe?
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我應該相信哪個?我能夠相信什麼?
04:51
What could I trust?
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04:52
This is part of the issue.
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這是部分問題。
04:55
In the absence of this framework to monitor space-actor behavior,
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在欠缺監測太空行為的框架——
05:03
to monitor activity in space --
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無法監測太空活動 和物體所在位置——
05:05
where these objects are located --
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05:07
to reconcile these inconsistencies
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若沒調和這些不一致性
05:10
and make this knowledge commonplace,
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和讓這知識觸手可及,
05:12
we actually risk losing the ability
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我們真的有可能失去
利用太空來造福人類的能力。
05:17
to use space for humanity's benefit.
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05:22
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝你們。
05:23
(Applause and cheers)
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(掌聲)
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