The world's first crowdsourced space traffic monitoring system | Moriba Jah

Prevoditelj: Martina Peraic Recezent: Sanda L

I am an astrodynamicist --

Ja sam astrodinamičar --

you know, like that guy Rich Purnell in the movie "The Martian."

znate, kao onaj Rich Purnell u filmu "Marsovac".

And it's my job to study and predict motion of objects in space.

Posao mi je proučavati i predvidjeti kretanje predmeta u svemiru.

Currently we track about one percent of hazardous objects on orbit --

Trenutno pratimo oko jedan posto opasnih predmeta u orbiti --

hazardous to services like location,

opasnih po usluge kao što su lociranje,

agriculture, banking,

poljoprivreda, bankarstvo,

television and communications,

televizija i komunikacije,

and soon -- very soon --

a uskoro -- vrlo uskoro --

even the internet itself.

čak i sam internet.

Now these services are not protected from, roughly, half a million objects

Sve te usluge nisu zaštićene od oko pola milijuna predmeta

the size of a speck of paint

veličine mrlje boje,

all the way to a school bus in size.

pa sve do veličine školskog autobusa.

A speck of paint,

Mrlja boje,

traveling at the right speed,

putujući odgovarajućom brzinom,

impacting one of these objects,

u doticaju s jednim od ovih objekata

could render it absolutely useless.

mogla bi ih oštetiti do stanja neupotrebljivosti.

But we can't track things as small as a speck of paint.

Ali ne možemo pratiti predmete sićušne poput mrlje boje.

We can only track things as small as say, a smartphone.

Možemo pratiti samo stvari veličine, primjerice, mobitela.

So of this half million objects that we should be concerned about,

Od tih pola milijuna predmeta koji bi nas trebali zabrinjavati,

we can only track about 26,000 of these objects.

možemo pratiti samo oko 26 000 tih predmeta.

And of these 26,000, only 2,000 actually work.

A od tih 26 000 samo 2000 doista funkcioniraju.

Everything else

Sve ostalo

is garbage.

je smeće.

That's a lot of garbage.

To je puno smeća.

To make things a little bit worse,

Da još pogoršamo situaciju,

most of what we launch into orbit never comes back.

većina toga što pošaljemo u orbitu nikada se ne vrati.

We send the satellite in orbit,

Pošaljemo satelit u orbitu,

it stops working, it runs out of fuel,

pokvari se, ostane bez goriva,

and we send something else up ...

a mi pošaljemo gore nešto drugo...

and then we send up something else ...

pa zatim nešto drugo...

and then something else.

pa još nešto drugo.

And every once in a while,

Prije ili kasnije

two of these things will collide with each other

dva takva predmeta se sudare

or one of these things will explode,

ili jedan od njih eksplodira,

or even worse,

ili još gore,

somebody might just happen to destroy one of their satellites on orbit,

netko slučajno uništi svoje satelite u orbiti,

and this generates many, many more pieces,

što stvara još puno, puno sitnih komada

most of which also never come back.

od kojih se većina također nikad ne vrati.

Now these things are not just randomly scattered in orbit.

Ti predmeti nisu samo proizvoljno razbacani po orbiti.

It turns out that given the curvature of space-time,

Ispostavlja se da, uzmemo li u obzir prostorno-vremensku strukturu,

there are ideal locations

postoje idealne lokacije

where we put some of these satellites --

gdje postavljamo satelite --

think of these as space highways.

zamislite to kao svemirske autoceste.

Very much like highways on earth,

Baš poput autocesta na Zemlji,

these space highways can only take up a maximum capacity of traffic

te autoceste mogu primiti određeni kapacitet prometa

to sustain space-safe operations.

kako bi funkcionirale na sigurnoj razini.

Unlike highways on earth,

Za razliku od autocesta na Zemlji,

there are actually no space traffic rules.

svemirska prometna pravila doslovno ne postoje.

None whatsoever, OK?

Nikakvih, OK?

Wow.

Wow.

What could possibly go wrong with that?

Što bi tu moglo uopće poći po zlu?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Now, what would be really nice

Stoga bi bilo vrlo lijepo

is if we had something like a space traffic map,

kad bismo imali nešto poput svemirske karte prometa,

like a Waze for space that I could look up

kao Waze aplikacije za svemir, gdje bih mogao pogledati

and see what the current traffic conditions are in space,

i vidjeti trenutne prometne uvjete u svemiru,

maybe even predict these.

možda ih čak i predvidjeti.

The problem with that, however,

Međutim, problem u tome je

is that ask five different people,

ako pitate petero različitih ljudi,

"What's going on in orbit?

"Što se događa u orbiti?",

Where are things going?"

"Kamo odlaze predmeti?",

and you're probably going to get 10 different answers.

vjerojatno ćete dobiti 10 različitih odgovora.

Why is that?

Zašto?

It's because information about things on orbit is not commonly shared either.

Zato što podaci o predmetima u orbiti nisu javno dostupni.

So what if we had a globally accessible,

Što ako bismo imali globalno dostupan,

open and transparent space traffic information system

otvoren i transparentan sustav svemirskog prometa

that can inform the public of where everything is located

koji bi informirao javnost o lokaciji svakog predmeta,

to try to keep space safe and sustainable?

kako bismo pokušali svemir učiniti sigurnim i održivim?

And what if the system could be used

I što ako bi se taj sustav moglo koristiti

to form evidence-based norms of behavior --

kako bismo oblikovali norme ponašanja zasnovane na dokazima --

these space traffic rules?

ta svemirska prometna pravila?

So I developed ASTRIAGraph,

Zato sam razvio ASTRIAGraph,

the world's first crowdsourced, space traffic monitoring system

prvi svjetski skupno financirani sustav praćenja svemirskog prometa

at the University of Texas at Austin.

na Sveučilištu Teksas u Austinu.

ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources of information from around the globe --

ASTRIAGraph kombinira više izvora podataka iz cijelog svijeta --

government, industry and academia --

vlade, industrije i akademije --

and represents this in a common framework that anybody can access today.

i predstavlja zajednički okvir kojemu danas bilo tko može pristupiti.

Here, you can see 26,000 objects orbiting the earth,

Ovdje možete vidjeti 26 000 predmeta kako kruže oko Zemlje,

multiple opinions,

brojna mišljenja,

and it gets updated in near real time.

a podaci se očitavaju u stvarnom vremenu.

But back to my problem of space traffic map:

Ali vratimo se na moj problem karte svemirskog prometa.

What if you only had information from the US government?

Što ako podatke dobivate jedino od američke vlade?

Well, in that case, that's what your space traffic map would look like.

U tom slučaju, vaša karta svemirskog prometa bi izgledala ovako.

But what do the Russians think?

Ali što Rusi misle?

That looks significantly different.

Ovo izgleda znatno drugačije.

Who's right? Who's wrong?

Tko je u pravu? Tko je u krivu?

What should I believe?

U što bih trebao vjerovati?

What could I trust?

Čemu mogu vjerovati?

This is part of the issue.

To je dio problema.

In the absence of this framework to monitor space-actor behavior,

U nedostatku takvog okvira za praćenje ponašanja svemirskih igrača,

to monitor activity in space --

nedostatku promatranja aktivnosti u svemiru --

where these objects are located --

gdje su ovi predmeti locirani --

to reconcile these inconsistencies

izbjegavanjem pomirenja ovih nejasnoća

and make this knowledge commonplace,

i nečinjenjem tog znanja sveopćim,

we actually risk losing the ability

zapravo riskiramo izgubiti mogućnost

to use space for humanity's benefit.

da koristimo svemir za dobrobit čovječanstva.

Thank you very much.

Puno vam hvala.

(Applause and cheers)

(Pljesak i navijanje)