Ian Goldin: Navigating our global future

92,050 views ・ 2009-10-23

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:15
The future, as we know it, is very unpredictable.
0
15260
4000
00:19
The best minds in the best institutions
1
19260
2000
00:21
generally get it wrong.
2
21260
2000
00:23
This is in technology. This is in the area of politics,
3
23260
4000
00:27
where pundits, the CIA, MI6 always get it wrong.
4
27260
3000
00:30
And it's clearly in the area of finance.
5
30260
3000
00:33
With institutions established to think about the future,
6
33260
2000
00:35
the IMF, the BIS, the Financial Stability Forum, couldn't see what was coming.
7
35260
4000
00:39
Over 20,000 economists
8
39260
2000
00:41
whose job it is, competitive entry to get there,
9
41260
2000
00:43
couldn't see what was happening.
10
43260
2000
00:45
Globalization is getting more complex.
11
45260
2000
00:47
And this change is getting more rapid.
12
47260
2000
00:49
The future will be more unpredictable.
13
49260
2000
00:51
Urbanization, integration,
14
51260
2000
00:53
coming together, leads to a new renaissance.
15
53260
3000
00:56
It did this a thousand years ago.
16
56260
2000
00:58
The last 40 years have been extraordinary times.
17
58260
3000
01:01
Life expectancy has gone up by about 25 years.
18
61260
3000
01:04
It took from the Stone Age to achieve that.
19
64260
3000
01:07
Income has gone up for a majority of the world's population,
20
67260
2000
01:09
despite the population going up by about two billion people over this period.
21
69260
5000
01:14
And illiteracy has gone down, from a half to about a quarter of the people on Earth.
22
74260
3000
01:17
A huge opportunity, unleashing of new potential
23
77260
3000
01:20
for innovation, for development.
24
80260
2000
01:22
But there is an underbelly.
25
82260
2000
01:24
There are two Achilles' heels of globalization.
26
84260
3000
01:27
There is the Achilles' heel of growing inequality --
27
87260
2000
01:29
those that are left out, those that feel angry,
28
89260
3000
01:32
those that are not participating. Globalization
29
92260
2000
01:34
has not been inclusive.
30
94260
2000
01:36
The second Achilles' heel is complexity --
31
96260
3000
01:39
a growing fragility, a growing brittleness.
32
99260
4000
01:43
What happens in one place very quickly affects everything else.
33
103260
3000
01:46
This is a systemic risk, systemic shock.
34
106260
3000
01:49
We've seen it in the financial crisis. We've seen it in the pandemic flu.
35
109260
3000
01:52
It will become virulent and it's something we have to build resilience against.
36
112260
4000
01:56
A lot of this is driven by what's happening in technology.
37
116260
3000
01:59
There have been huge leaps. There will be a million-fold improvement
38
119260
3000
02:02
in what you can get for the same price
39
122260
2000
02:04
in computing by 2030.
40
124260
2000
02:06
That's what the experience of the last 20 years has been.
41
126260
2000
02:08
It will continue.
42
128260
2000
02:10
Our computers, our systems will be as primitive
43
130260
3000
02:13
as the Apollo's are for today.
44
133260
2000
02:15
Our mobile phones are more powerful than the total Apollo space engine.
45
135260
3000
02:18
Our mobile phones are more powerful than
46
138260
2000
02:20
some of the strongest computers of 20 years ago.
47
140260
2000
02:22
So what will this do?
48
142260
2000
02:24
It will create huge opportunities in technology.
49
144260
3000
02:27
Miniaturization as well.
50
147260
2000
02:29
There will be invisible capacity. Invisible capacity in our bodies,
51
149260
3000
02:32
in our brains, and in the air.
52
152260
2000
02:34
This is a dust mite on a nanoreplica.
53
154260
3000
02:37
This sort of ability to do everything in new ways unleashes potential,
54
157260
4000
02:41
not least in the area of medicine.
55
161260
2000
02:43
This is a stem cell that we've developed here in Oxford,
56
163260
3000
02:46
from an embryonic stem cell.
57
166260
2000
02:48
We can develop any part of the body.
58
168260
2000
02:50
Increasingly, over time, this will be possible from our own skin --
59
170260
3000
02:53
able to replicate parts of the body.
60
173260
2000
02:55
Fantastic potential for regenerative medicine.
61
175260
2000
02:57
I don't think there will be a Special Olympics long after 2030,
62
177260
4000
03:01
because of this capacity to regenerate parts of the body.
63
181260
3000
03:04
But the question is, "Who will have it?"
64
184260
2000
03:06
The other major development is going to be
65
186260
2000
03:08
in the area of what can happen in genetics.
66
188260
2000
03:10
The capacity to create, as this mouse has been genetically modified,
67
190260
6000
03:16
something which goes three times faster,
68
196260
2000
03:18
lasts for three times longer, we could produce,
69
198260
2000
03:20
as this mouse can, to the age of our equivalent of 80 years,
70
200260
4000
03:24
using about the same amount of food.
71
204260
3000
03:27
But will this only be available for the super rich,
72
207260
2000
03:29
for those that can afford it? Are we headed for a new eugenics?
73
209260
3000
03:32
Will only those that are able to afford it
74
212260
3000
03:35
be able to be this super race of the future?
75
215260
3000
03:38
(Laughter)
76
218260
1000
03:39
So the big question for us is,
77
219260
2000
03:41
"How do we manage this technological change?"
78
221260
2000
03:43
How do we ensure that it creates
79
223260
2000
03:45
a more inclusive technology,
80
225260
2000
03:47
a technology which means
81
227260
3000
03:50
that not only as we grow older,
82
230260
2000
03:52
that we can also grow wiser, and that we're able to support
83
232260
2000
03:54
the populations of the future?
84
234260
2000
03:56
One of the most dramatic manifestations of these improvements
85
236260
3000
03:59
will be moving from population pyramids
86
239260
2000
04:01
to what we might term population coffins.
87
241260
3000
04:04
There is unlikely to be a pension
88
244260
2000
04:06
or a retirement age in 2030.
89
246260
3000
04:09
These will be redundant concepts. And this isn't only something of the West.
90
249260
3000
04:12
The most dramatic changes will be the skyscraper
91
252260
3000
04:15
type of new pyramids
92
255260
2000
04:17
that will take place in China and in many other countries.
93
257260
3000
04:20
So forget about retirements if you're young.
94
260260
2000
04:22
Forget about pensions. Think about life and where it's going to be going.
95
262260
3000
04:25
Of course, migration will become even more important.
96
265260
3000
04:28
The war on talent, the need to attract people
97
268260
2000
04:30
at all skill ranges,
98
270260
2000
04:32
to push us around in our wheelchairs,
99
272260
2000
04:34
but also to drive our economies. Our innovation will be vital.
100
274260
3000
04:37
The employment in the rich countries
101
277260
2000
04:39
will go down from about 800
102
279260
2000
04:41
to about 700 million of these people.
103
281260
2000
04:43
This would imply a massive leap in migration.
104
283260
2000
04:45
So the concerns, the xenophobic concerns of today,
105
285260
3000
04:48
of migration, will be turned on their head,
106
288260
2000
04:50
as we search for people to help us sort out
107
290260
3000
04:53
our pensions and our economies in the future.
108
293260
2000
04:55
And then, the systemic risks.
109
295260
2000
04:57
We understand that these will become much more virulent,
110
297260
3000
05:00
that what we see today
111
300260
2000
05:02
is this interweaving of societies, of systems,
112
302260
3000
05:05
fastened by technologies and hastened by just-in-time management systems.
113
305260
5000
05:10
Small levels of stock push resilience into other people's responsibility.
114
310260
5000
05:15
The collapse in biodiversity,
115
315260
2000
05:17
climate change, pandemics, financial crises:
116
317260
3000
05:20
these will be the currency that we will think about.
117
320260
3000
05:23
And so a new awareness will have to arise,
118
323260
2000
05:25
of how we deal with these, how we mobilize ourselves,
119
325260
3000
05:28
in a new way, and come together as a community
120
328260
3000
05:31
to manage systemic risk.
121
331260
2000
05:33
It's going to require innovation.
122
333260
2000
05:35
It's going to require an understanding that the glory of globalization
123
335260
4000
05:39
could also be its downfall.
124
339260
2000
05:41
This could be our best century ever because of the achievements,
125
341260
3000
05:44
or it could be our worst.
126
344260
2000
05:46
And of course we need to worry about the individuals,
127
346260
2000
05:48
particularly the individuals that feel that they've
128
348260
2000
05:50
been left out in one way or another.
129
350260
2000
05:52
An individual, for the first time in the history of humanity,
130
352260
3000
05:55
will have the capacity, by 2030,
131
355260
2000
05:57
to destroy the planet, to wreck everything,
132
357260
3000
06:00
through the creation, for example, of a biopathogen.
133
360260
3000
06:03
How do we begin to weave these tapestries together?
134
363260
2000
06:05
How do we think about complex systems in new ways?
135
365260
3000
06:08
That will be the challenge of the scholars,
136
368260
2000
06:10
and of all of us engaged in thinking about the future.
137
370260
3000
06:13
The rest of our lives will be in the future. We need to prepare for it now.
138
373260
3000
06:16
We need to understand that the governance structure in the world is fossilized.
139
376260
3000
06:19
It cannot begin to cope with the challenges that this will bring.
140
379260
4000
06:23
We have to develop a new way of managing the planet,
141
383260
3000
06:26
collectively, through collective wisdom.
142
386260
2000
06:28
We know, and I know from my own experience,
143
388260
2000
06:30
that amazing things can happen,
144
390260
2000
06:32
when individuals and societies come together
145
392260
2000
06:34
to change their future.
146
394260
2000
06:36
I left South Africa, and 15 years later,
147
396260
2000
06:38
after thinking I would never go back,
148
398260
2000
06:40
I had the privilege and the honor to work in the government of Nelson Mandela.
149
400260
3000
06:43
This was a miracle. We can create miracles,
150
403260
2000
06:45
collectively, in our lifetime.
151
405260
2000
06:47
It is vital that we do so.
152
407260
2000
06:49
It is vital that the ideas that are nurtured in TED,
153
409260
2000
06:51
that the ideas that we think about
154
411260
2000
06:53
look forward, and make sure that this will be the most glorious century,
155
413260
3000
06:56
and not one of eco-disaster and eco-collapse.
156
416260
3000
06:59
Thank you. (Applause)
157
419260
2000
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7