Do politics make us irrational? - Jay Van Bavel

譯者: Clement Fu 審譯者: Helen Chang

In 2013, a team of researchers held a math test.

2013 年，研究小組舉辦了數學測驗

The exam was administered to over 1,100 American adults,

測驗對象是超過 1,100 名美國成人

and designed, in part, to test their ability to evaluate sets of data.

一部分是測試他們評估資料集的能力

Hidden among these math problems were two almost identical questions.

數學題中卻暗藏兩條幾近一樣的問題

Both problems used the same difficult data set,

兩道題採用同一組艱澀的資料

and each had one objectively correct answer.

各有一個客觀正確的答案

The first asked about the correlation between rashes and a new skin cream.

第一條問皮疹與新款護膚霜之相關

The second asked about the correlation between crime rates

第二條問犯罪率與槍械管制立法

and gun control legislation.

兩者之相關

Participants with strong math skills

熟諳數學的參與者

were much more likely to get the first question correct.

答對第一條的機會相對高很多

But despite being mathematically identical,

不過，即使數學上是如出一轍

the results for the second question looked totally different.

答對第二條的結果大不相同

Here, math skills weren’t the best predictor

此時，數學技能並非 最佳的預測子（predictor）

of which participants answered correctly.

用來預估哪些參與者會答對

Instead, another variable the researchers had been tracking came into play:

相反，研究員追蹤的另一個變數

則左右大局：政治認同 （political identity）

political identity.

Participants whose political beliefs

參與者的政治信念

aligned with a correct interpretation of the data

與資料的正確詮釋吻合的話

were far more likely to answer the problem right.

答對問題的機會就大大增加

Even the study’s top mathematicians

即使是研究中頂尖的數學高手

were 45% more likely to get the second question wrong

都有 45% 較大機會答錯第二題

when the correct answer challenged their political beliefs.

倘若正確答案有悖他們的政治信念

What is it about politics that inspires this kind of illogical error?

政治如何激起這種不合邏輯的錯誤？

Can someone’s political identity actually affect their ability

一個人的政治認同

會實際影響其處理資訊的能力嗎？

to process information?

The answer lies in a cognitive phenomenon

答案在於一種認知現象

that has become increasingly visible in public life: partisanship.

而且是日趨在社會生活顯而易見：

黨派性（partisanship）

While it’s often invoked in the context of politics,

雖然論述的場合大多是談政治

partisanship is more broadly defined as a strong preference or bias

黨派性廣義指一種強烈偏好或偏誤

towards any particular group or idea.

傾向任何特定一個群體或主張

Our political, ethnic, religious, and national identities

政治、種族、宗教、國家認同

are all different forms of partisanship.

全都是我們形形色色的各種黨派性

Of course, identifying with social groups

當然，與社會群體認同是人類生活中

is an essential and healthy part of human life.

不可或缺而且健康的一部分

Our sense of self is defined not only by who we are as individuals,

自己身為個體是怎樣的一個人以外

我們歸屬的群體也塑造自我的意識

but also by the groups we belong to.

As a result, we’re strongly motivated to defend our group identities,

因此我們有強烈動機捍衞群體認同

protecting both our sense of self and our social communities.

保護自我意識，同時保護社會社群

But this becomes a problem when the group’s beliefs

不過，當群體的信念與現實睽違

are at odds with reality.

問題就隨之而來

Imagine watching your favorite sports team commit a serious foul.

想像一下你心愛的球隊嚴重犯規

You know that’s against the rules,

你知道這是球例所不容

but your fellow fans think it’s totally acceptable.

但身旁的球迷都覺得完全沒問題

The tension between these two incompatible thoughts

這兩個不相容想法之間的張力

is called cognitive dissonance,

稱為「認知失調」，驅使大部分人

and most people are driven to resolve this uncomfortable state of limbo.

去化解這種戚戚然、不踏實的狀態

You might start to blame the referee, complain that the other team started it,

你或會開始怪責裁判

控訴是敵隊違規在先

or even convince yourself there was no foul in the first place.

甚至說服自己，根本沒有犯規

In a case like this,

這種情況下，人通常有較大動機

people are often more motivated to maintain a positive relationship

去維持與群體的正面關係

with their group than perceive the world accurately.

多於準確地覺察這世界

This behavior is especially dangerous in politics.

這種行為，放諸政治尤其危險

On an individual scale,

在個人層面而言

allegiance to a party allows people to create a political identity

對政黨的忠誠讓人建立起政治認同

and support policies they agree with.

並讓人支持自己認同的政策

But partisan-based cognitive dissonance can lead people to reject evidence

但黨派性而來的認知失調可使人排斥

that’s inconsistent with the party line or discredits party leaders.

不符政黨路線或貶損政黨領袖的證據

And when entire groups of people revise the facts in service of partisan beliefs,

當整群人修改事實以侍奉黨派性信念

it can lead to policies that aren’t grounded in truth or reason.

政策可能由此不再立足於真相或理由

This problem isn’t new—

這個問題由來已久

political identities have been around for centuries.

政治認同已存在數個世紀

But studies show that partisan polarization

但研究顯示

過去數十年黨派性兩極化急劇增加

has increased dramatically in the last few decades.

One theory explaining this increase

其中一個解釋這種上升的理論

is the trend towards clustering geographically in like-minded communities.

歸因思想類近的社群日趨群聚起來

Another is the growing tendency to rely on partisan news

另一個理論是人日益依賴黨派性新聞

or social media bubbles.

或社交媒體泡泡

These often act like echo chambers,

結果就像是回聲室，呈現的都是

delivering news and ideas from people with similar views.

見解相近的人發表的意見和新聞

Fortunately, cognitive scientists have uncovered some strategies

幸好，認知科學家發掘了

一些抗拒這種扭曲篩選的策略

for resisting this distortion filter.

One is to remember that you’re probably more biased than you think.

其一是記住你或比自己想像更偏頗

So when you encounter new information,

每當遇到新的資訊

make a deliberate effort to push through your initial intuition

使勁摒除你先入為主的直覺

and evaluate it analytically.

花點功夫條分縷析地評估

In your own groups, try to make fact-checking and questioning assumptions

在群體中嘗試樹立良好的文化風氣

多查證事實，對假設抱疑三分

a valued part of the culture.

Warning people that they might have been presented with misinformation

警醒旁人可能收到不盡不實的資訊

can also help.

也助己助人

And when you’re trying to persuade someone else,

而當你說服別人時要讓人更易接納

affirming their values and framing the issue in their language

可以試試肯定他們抱持的價值觀

並迎合他們的談吐，好示同聲之誼

can help make people more receptive.

We still have a long way to go before solving the problem of partisanship.

解決黨派性的問題仍長路漫漫

But hopefully, these tools can help keep us better informed,

但願這些工具能讓我們知情更全面

and capable of making evidence-based decisions about our shared reality.

並立足證據上就天下同一現實決策