The origin of countless conspiracy theories - PatrickJMT

譯者: Helen Chang 審譯者: SF Huang

If you line up the entire text of “Moby Dick,”

若把1851年出版的 《白鯨記》整本書的文字，

which was published in 1851,

into a giant rectangle,

排成大的矩形文字格，

you may notice some peculiar patterns:

你可能會注意到一些奇特的模式，

like these words,

像這些字

which seem to predict the assassination of Martin Luther King.

似乎預言馬丁‧路德‧金會被暗殺，

Or these references to the 1997 death of Princess Di.

或是關於1997年 黛安娜王妃的死亡。

So, was Herman Melville a secret prophet?

那麼，赫爾曼‧梅爾維爾 是個秘密先知嗎？

The answer is no,

當然不是，

and we know that thanks to a mathematical principle called Ramsey theory.

我們之所以知道，是因為根據 「拉姆西理論」這個數學原理。

It's the reason we can find geometric shapes in the night sky,

因著這個理論， 我們能在夜空中發現幾何圖形，

it's why we can know without checking

也因著它，我們不用查就知道

that at least two people in London

在倫敦至少有兩個 頭髮數量完全一樣的人，

have exactly the same number of hairs on their head,

and it explains why patterns can be found in just about any text...

它也解釋了

何以在任何形式的文字裡， 幾乎都能找到所謂的模式，

even Vanilla Ice lyrics.

甚至在香草冰的歌詞中 也能找到。

So what is Ramsey theory?

什麼是「拉姆西理論」？

Simply put, it states that given enough elements in a set or structure,

簡單說，若組合或結構中 有足夠的元素，

some particular interesting pattern among them is guaranteed to emerge.

那麼一些奇特有趣的模式 必然會發生。

As a simple example, let’s look at what’s called the Party Problem—

簡單舉例，讓我們來看看

拉姆西理論中典型的例證 ── 派對習題。

a classic illustration of Ramsey theory.

Suppose there are at least six people at a party.

假設至少有6個人出席派對，

Amazingly enough, we can say for sure

很奇妙地，

我們確知必定有3個人認識彼此，

that some group of three of them either all know each other,

or have never met before,

或者從未見過面，

without knowing a single thing about them.

即使我們完全不知 他們的任何背景資料。

We can demonstrate that by graphing out all the possibilities.

我們可以圖解， 來說明所有的可能性。

Each point represents a person,

每一點代表一個人，

and a line indicates that the pair know each other.

一條線表示兩個人彼此相識。

Every pair only has two possibilities: they either know each other or they don't.

任何兩人只存在兩種可能性： 他們認識或者不認識對方。

There are a lot of possibilities,

有眾多的可能性，

but every single one has the property that we're looking for.

但是，每一種 都有我們想尋找的特性。

Six is the lowest number of guests where that's guaranteed to be the case,

6是讓這個例子成立的 最少賓客人數，

which we can express like this.

可以用這式子表示。

Ramsey theory gives us a guarantee

拉姆西理論保證

that such a minimum number exists for certain patterns,

像這樣的最小數， 必定存在某些模式中，

but no easy way to find it.

但未必容易找得出來。

In this case, as the total number of guests grows higher,

在這情形下，當賓客數增多，

the combinations get out of control.

組合數就會超出可控制的範圍。

For instance, say you're trying to find out the minimum size of a party

例如，假設你要找一組 5人彼此認識

where there's a group of five people who all know each other or all don't.

或是互不認識的最少賓客數，

Despite five being a small number,

雖然，5是一個小數目，

the answer is virtually impossible to discover

但實際上，無法以窮舉搜索法 來找出來答案。

through an exhaustive search like this.

That's because of the sheer volume of possibilities.

原因是可能性極為龐大。

A party with 48 guests

在有48位賓客的派對中， 存在2的1128次方種可能性。

has 2^(1128) possible configurations,

more than the number of atoms in the universe.

遠超過全宇宙中的原子總數。

Even with the help of computers,

即使有電腦的幫忙，

the best we know is that the answer to this question

我們對這問題所能求得的最佳解答，

is somewhere between 43 and 49 guests.

只能得出賓客人數 落在43~49這個區間。

What this shows us is that specific patterns

這告訴我們，

有著像天文數字般大的 可能性的特定模式，

with seemingly astronomical odds

can emerge from a relatively small set.

可源自於相對小的組合。

And with a very large set, the possibilities are almost endless.

而大組合的可能性， 幾乎是無窮大的。

Any four stars where no three lie in a straight line

任何4顆星，若有任3顆不共線，

will form some quadrilateral shape.

就會組成某種四邊形。

Expand that to the thousands of stars we can see in the sky,

因此，觀看天空中數千顆的星星，

and it's no surprise that we can find all sorts of familiar shapes,

我們能看到各種熟悉的形狀， 甚至動物的樣子，

and even creatures if we look for them.

就一點也不奇怪了。

So what are the chances of a text concealing a prophecy?

所以，文字中隱藏著預言 的可能性有多少？

Well, when you factor in the number of letters,

如果你計入字母的總數，

the variety of possible related words,

它們所能組合的各式字詞，

and all their abbreviations and alternate spellings,

還有簡寫，和替代拼法，

they're pretty high.

可能性非常的高。

You can try it yourself.

你可以自己試試。

Just pick a favorite text,

選一篇你喜歡的文章，

arrange the letters in a grid,

把字母排成格子狀，

and see what you can find.

看看你能找到什麼。

The mathematician T.S. Motzkin once remarked that,

數學家莫茲金曾說 :

「雖然一般而言， 混亂失序的機率較高，

“while disorder is more probable in general,

complete disorder is impossible."

但是， 全然的混亂失序是不可能的。」

The sheer size of the universe guarantees that some of its random elements

在廣大遼闊的宇宙中，

必定有些隨機的元素 會形成特定的排列，

will fall into specific arrangements,

and because we evolved to notice patterns and pick out signals among the noise,

由於我們進化到 能從雜訊中找出訊號和模式，

we are often tempted to find intentional meaning where there may not be any.

所以，我們常禁不住想從可能 無意義的事物中找出隱含的訊息。

So while we may be awed by hidden messages in everything from books,

因此，當我們驚嘆隱藏於

書中、吐司上、

to pieces of toast,

to the night sky,

或夜空中的訊息時，

their real origin is usually our own minds.

其實，我們自己的心智 才是發出訊息的源頭。