The infamous overpopulation bet: Simon vs. Ehrlich - Soraya Field Fiorio

翻译人员: Shuhui Huang 校对人员: Helen Chang

In 1980, two American professors bet $1,000

1980年，两个美国教授 打了个1000美元的赌

on a question with stakes that couldn’t be higher:

而赌约事关重大

would the earth run out of resources to sustain a growing human population?

赌的是地球会不会 因为人口过剩而耗尽资源

One of them was Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich,

其中一位教授是斯坦福的 生态学家保罗·埃利希

who wrote the bestselling 1968 book, “The Population Bomb.”

他撰写了1968年的 畅销书《人口爆炸》

The global population had grown rapidly since World War II,

自从二战结束 全球人口一直在快速增长

and Ehrlich predicted that millions would starve to death

埃利希预测，数百万人 将会因为粮食供给跟不上

as the population increased faster than the food supply.

人口增长速度而饿死

He drew from the ideas of 18th century economist Thomas Malthus

他的想法来自于十八世纪的 经济学家托马斯·马尔萨斯

and related work from the 20th century.

和一些二十世纪的相关著作

Malthus had posited that population growth,

马尔萨斯认为如果不加以控制

if unchecked over time, would always outpace food supply.

人口增速总是会比粮食产量快

Through the 1970s, it seemed like Ehrlich was right:

在 70 年代看似埃利希正确

famines, pollution, and political unrest

饥荒、污染、政治斗争

had many concerned that humanity was on the brink of such a crisis,

都让人感到危机即将爆发

and some governments considered and even implemented

有些政府衡量甚至执行了

policies to limit population growth.

限制人口的政策

Betting against Ehrlich was Julian Simon, a professor of business and economics.

和埃利希打赌的是朱利安·西蒙

一位商业经济学教授

He analyzed historic data from around the world,

他分析了各个国家的历史数据得出

and found no correlation between a growing population

人口增长和生活质量下降

and a decrease in standards of living—

是没有必然联系的

in fact, he found the opposite.

事实上，他的结论是相反的

He argued that Ehrlich’s work, and that of Malthus before him,

他反驳埃利希以及之前的马尔萨斯

was based on theoretical calculations,

基于理论计算

while the real-world data told a different story.

而真实数据的结果是不一样的

But then, he departed from the data himself,

然而，他后来的理论也脱离了数据

claiming human ingenuity would always find alternatives

认为人类的智慧总是会找到办法

to compensate for diminishing resources.

以弥补资源的减少

If that seems overly optimistic to you, well, you're not alone.

不只是你觉得这过于乐观

Ehrlich and other experts found Simon’s claims preposterous.

埃利希和其他专家 都觉得西蒙的观点很荒唐

In June 1980, Simon wrote a scathing article for Science Magazine

1980年6月，西蒙投稿科学杂志

写了一篇很尖刻的文章

that incited a heated debate of published articles between the two men.

两个人随之开始激烈地 发表文章驳斥对方

Simon said he should have placed a wager against Ehrlich years before,

西蒙说他早该在几年前 就与埃利希打赌

when Ehrlich ventured that,

那时埃利希大言不惭地说

“England would not exist in the year 2000.”

”英格兰到21世纪将不复存在“

Later that year, Simon called Ehrlich a false prophet

那一年稍后，西蒙公开宣称 埃利希是一个假预言家

and challenged him to a bet.

并挑战他打一个赌

Their feud also touched on the debate

他们的争执也恰好与当时

about whether to prioritize environmental protections or economic growth,

是环境还是经济为先的讨论不谋而合

a key issue in the American presidential race

这是当时竞选总统的 吉米·卡特和罗纳德·里根

between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.

辩论的重要话题

After some debate, they set the final terms:

经过一番辩论，两人最终商定：

$200 on the price of each of five metals.

赌五种金属的价格，各两百美元

If the price of the metal decreased or held steady over the next decade,

如果金属的价格十年后下降或不变

Simon won.

则西蒙赢

If the price increased, Ehrlich won.

如果价格上升，则埃利希赢

Wait, what?

啥？

Weren’t we talking about overpopulation and famine?

我们不是再说人口过剩和饥荒吗？

What could the price of metals possibly have to do with that?

和金属价格有什么关系？

Well, the reality is that the price of metals may not have been the best choice—

其实，金属的价格 可能的确不是最好的选择

many factors impact these prices that have nothing to do with overpopulation.

因为金属价格会受很多 与人口无关的因素影响

But their reasoning was as follows: metals are finite natural resources

但他们的理由如下：

金属是有限的自然资源

used in all sorts of manufacturing.

而且是各种工业生产的必需品

Ehrlich believed a growing population would consume such finite resources,

埃利希相信人口增长会导致资源稀缺

and scarcity would drive the prices up.

并使价格上涨

Simon thought humanity would find substitutes for the metals,

而西蒙认为人类会找到 金属的替代资源

and the prices would stay stable or even decrease.

所以价格不仅不涨，甚至还会跌

So, what happened?

所以，结果是什么呢？

The world population continued to increase over the next 10 years,

之后的十年，世界人口持续增加

but the price of all five metals decreased,

但这五种金属矿物的价格却都下跌了

making Simon the clear winner of a bet that may not have been a great proxy

所以西蒙完胜

虽然金属价格对他们辩题来说

for the question they were debating, anyway.

可能并不是一个好的衡量标准

As for the question itself, today,

再回到人口过剩的问题

their focus on overpopulation represent a snapshot of history.

他们的论点其实展现了我们过去的认知

Our understanding of what causes starvation and famine has progressed:

我们对导致饥荒原因的理解有所进展：

we have the resources to support a growing human population,

虽然我们拥有足够的粮食

but we’re currently failing to distribute those resources equitably,

但我们的问题在于没有公平分配

and changing that should be our priority.

这是我们要优先解决的

And we no longer see population size as a primary cause

我们也不再认为环境恶化、 气候变化的主要原因

of environmental degradation and climate change,

是人口数量了

or limiting population growth as a viable solution to these problems.

也不再觉得限制人口是解决办法

Rather, experts largely agree that our focus should be

业界专家已达成共识，我们应该注重

on replacing unsustainable technologies and practices with sustainable ones,

开发可以持续的新能源 来替代旧的不可再生能源

and that economic growth and environmental protections

经济发展和环境保护

don’t have to be at odds.

也并不一定对立

In October 1990, Julian Simon received a check from Paul Ehrlich.

1990年10月朱利安·西蒙 收到了一张来自保罗·埃利希的支票

There was no note.

没有附言