How much will you change in the future? More than you think - Bence Nanay

翻译人员: Chloe Ma 校对人员: Lipeng Chen

When trains began to shuttle people across the coutryside,

当火车开始载着人们 穿越在乡村间之时，

many insisted they would never replace horses.

很多人坚持说 它们永远也无法代替马匹。

Less than a century later, people repeated that same prediction about cars,

不到一个世纪， 人们对车辆重复了同样的预测，

telephones,

电话，

radio,

television,

广播，

电视，

and computers.

和电脑。

Each had their own host of detractors.

它们各有各的批评者。

Even some experts insisted they wouldn’t catch on.

甚至很多专家坚持 它们永远无法追赶上。

Of course, we can’t predict exactly what the future will look like

当然，我们无法准确的预测 未来是什么样子

or what new inventions will populate it.

或是什么样的发明 会成为潮流。

But time and time again,

但是历史总是相似的，

we’ve also failed to predict that the technologies of the present

我们又没有预测到 当代的技术

will change the future.

会改变未来。

And recent research has revealed a similar pattern in our individual lives:

近期的研究人员发现了 我们个人生活的相似模式；

we’re unable to predict change in ourselves.

我们无法预测 将会发生在我们自己身上的改变。

Three psychologists documented our inability to predict personal change

三位心理学家在2013年的论文 《历史幻想的终结》中

in a 2013 paper called, “The End of History Illusion.”

论证了我们无法预测个人的改变。

Named after political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s prediction

政治学家法兰西斯·福山的预测

that liberal democracy was the final form of government,

阐述自由民主将会是 最后一种形式的政府结构，

or as he called it, “the end of history,”

或者他称其为， “历史的终结”，

their work highlights the way we see ourselves as finished products

他们的工作强调了 在任何的时期

at any given moment.

我们把自己看作是成品。

The researchers recruited over 7,000 participants ages 18 to 68.

研究人员招募了超过7000位 16到68岁的参与者。

They asked half of these participants to report their current personality traits,

他们询问了一半的参与者 报告他们当前的人格，

values,

价值，

and preferences,

和喜好，

along with what each of those metrics had been ten years before.

还有他们十年前相同的指标。

The other half described those features in their present selves,

另一半描述他们现在的特点，

and predicted what they would be ten years in the future.

然后预测十年后 他们会变成什么样子。

Based on these answers,

基于这些答案，

the researchers then calculated the degree of change

研究人员计算了 每一位参与者报告或是预测的

each participant reported or predicted.

改变的程度。

For every age group in the sample,

每一个年龄组为样本，

they compared the predicted changes to the reported changes.

他们对比了预测的改变 和实际上的改变。

So they compared the degree to which 18-year-olds thought they would change

所以他们对比了18岁参与者 认为他们可能会改变的程度

to the degree to which 28-year-olds reported they had changed.

和28岁参与者 认为他们已经改变的程度。

Overwhelmingly, at all ages,

压倒性的，所有的年龄组，

people’s future estimates of change came up short

人们对未来变化的估计 相比年长被试回忆的

compared to the changes their older counterparts recalled.

变化远远不够。

20-year-olds expected to still like the same foods at 30,

20岁的人们认为他们30岁时 仍然会喜欢同样的食物，

but 30-year-olds no longer had the same tastes.

但30岁的时候 便不再喜欢同样的味道了。

30-year-olds predicted they’d still have the same best friend at 40,

30岁的预测在40岁的时候 会有同样的朋友，

but 40-year-olds had lost touch with theirs.

但是40岁的时候 他们早已失去联系。

And 40-year-olds predicted they’d maintain the same core values

40岁的人们预测他们 留有同样的喜好

that 50-year-olds had reconsidered.

而在50岁时已经不再是了。

While older people changed less than younger people on the whole,

当年长的人们与年轻的人们相比 改变的更少，

they underestimated their capacity for change just as much.

他们低估了 他们的改变能力。

Wherever we are in life, the end of history illusion persists:

在我们人生中的任何时点， 历史幻象的终结持续着：

we tend to think that the bulk of our personal change is behind us.

我们倾向于认为 我们人生大部分的改变已经过去。

One consequence of this thinking

这种思考方式的结果

is that we’re inclined to overinvest in future choices

是我们倾向去过度投资 基于我们现在的喜好形成的

based on present preferences.

未来的选择。

On average, people are willing to pay about 60% more

平均来说 人们愿意多付60%

to see their current favorite musician ten years in the future

在未来十年里 去看他们当前最喜欢的音乐家

than they’d currently pay to see their favorite musician from ten years ago.

相较于现在付钱去看 他们十年前最喜欢的音乐家。

While the stakes involved in concert-going are low,

即使关于去演唱会的 时间成本不高，

we’re susceptible to similar miscalculations

我们总是会在更加严肃的事情中

in more serious commitments,

被这种错误的思考而误导，

like homes,

像是家庭，

partners,

伙伴，

and jobs.

和工作。

At the same time, there’s no real way to predict

同时， 并没有真正的方式去预测

what our preferences will be in the future.

我们未来的爱好将会 变成什么样子。

Without the end of history Illusion,

除去历史幻象的终结，

it would be difficult to make any long-term plans.

做出长期的计划 是非常困难的。

So the end of history illusion applies to our individual lives,

所有历史幻象的终结 适用于我们每一个个体，

but what about the wider world?

但是如果是更大的世界呢？

Could we be assuming that how things are now is how they will continue to be?

我们能不能假设 现在的事情以后也会发生？

If so, fortunately, there are countless records

如果是的话，幸运的， 有不计其数的记录

to remind us that the world does change, sometimes for the better.

提醒我们世界会改变的， 有时变得更好。

Our own historical moment isn’t the end of history,

我们自己的历史性瞬间 并不是世界的终结，

and that can be just as much a source of comfort as a cause for concern.

这既可以让人感到心安， 也能让人感到担忧。