How much will you change in the future? More than you think - Bence Nanay

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

When trains began to shuttle people across the coutryside,

當火車開始穿過鄉村運載乘客時，

many insisted they would never replace horses.

許多人堅持火車永遠不會取代馬。

Less than a century later, people repeated that same prediction about cars,

不到一世紀後，人們又做出了 同樣的預測，只是對象改為汽車、

telephones,

電話、收音機、

radio,

television,

電視機，和電腦。

and computers.

Each had their own host of detractors.

每一項都有一票自己的抵毀者。

Even some experts insisted they wouldn’t catch on.

甚至有些專家都堅持 它們不會流行起來。

Of course, we can’t predict exactly what the future will look like

當然，我們無法精確預測 未來會是什麼樣子，

or what new inventions will populate it.

會是未來會流行什麼新發明。

But time and time again,

但，再三地，

we’ve also failed to predict that the technologies of the present

我們也沒能預測到現今的科技

will change the future.

會改變未來。

And recent research has revealed a similar pattern in our individual lives:

近期的研究顯示，在我們 個人的生活中也有類似的模式：

we’re unable to predict change in ourselves.

我們無法預測我們自己的改變。

Three psychologists documented our inability to predict personal change

三位心理學家記錄了我們 無法預測個人改變的無能，

in a 2013 paper called, “The End of History Illusion.”

在 2013 年寫成一篇論文，

叫做「歷史終止錯覺」。

Named after political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s prediction

這個名字是來自政治科學家 法蘭西斯福山的預測，

that liberal democracy was the final form of government,

他認為自由民主 是政府的最後一種形式，

or as he called it, “the end of history,”

或者，是他所謂的「歷史終止」。

their work highlights the way we see ourselves as finished products

這篇論文強調我們在任何時候

都會把自己視為是成品。

at any given moment.

The researchers recruited over 7,000 participants ages 18 to 68.

研究者招募了七千名受試者，

年齡從 18 歲到 68 歲不等。

They asked half of these participants to report their current personality traits,

他們請一半的受試者 陳述他們目前的個人特質、

values,

價值觀，以及偏好，

and preferences,

along with what each of those metrics had been ten years before.

還有上述每個項目 在十年前是什麼樣子的。

The other half described those features in their present selves,

另一半人則要描述 他們目前自我的特徵，

and predicted what they would be ten years in the future.

並預測十年之後 這些特徵會變成怎樣。

Based on these answers,

根據這些答案，

the researchers then calculated the degree of change

研究者計算出了每位受試者 所陳述的過去改變

each participant reported or predicted.

或所預測的未來改變程度有多高。

For every age group in the sample,

針對樣本中的每個年齡組，

they compared the predicted changes to the reported changes.

他們比較了預測的未來改變 和陳述的過去改變。

So they compared the degree to which 18-year-olds thought they would change

他們把 18 歲受試者 認為將來會做的改變，

to the degree to which 28-year-olds reported they had changed.

和 28 歲受試者陳述過去 已經發生的改變做比較。

Overwhelmingly, at all ages,

各年齡組的結果都是一面倒，

people’s future estimates of change came up short

大家對於未來改變的預測，都不及

compared to the changes their older counterparts recalled.

相對他們未來年齡的那些人 所回憶的過去改變。

20-year-olds expected to still like the same foods at 30,

20 歲受試者預測他們在 30 歲時 還會喜歡同樣的食物，

but 30-year-olds no longer had the same tastes.

但 30 歲受試者的口味 已經和以前不同。

30-year-olds predicted they’d still have the same best friend at 40,

30 歲受試者預測他們到 40 歲時 最好的朋友仍然不會變，

but 40-year-olds had lost touch with theirs.

但 40 歲受試者已經 和他們最好的朋友失聯了。

And 40-year-olds predicted they’d maintain the same core values

40 歲受試者預測他們將來 會保有相同的核心價值觀，

that 50-year-olds had reconsidered.

但 50 歲受試者已重新思考過 他們的核心價值觀。

While older people changed less than younger people on the whole,

雖然整體來說，年長者的改變 沒有年輕人來得多，

they underestimated their capacity for change just as much.

但他們同樣都會低估了 他們改變的能力。

Wherever we are in life, the end of history illusion persists:

不論我們在人生的哪個階段，

歷史終止錯覺都會一直存在：

we tend to think that the bulk of our personal change is behind us.

我們傾向會認為我們已經 經歷過了個人的重大改變。

One consequence of this thinking

這種想法的後果就是

is that we’re inclined to overinvest in future choices

我們會想要依據目前的偏好，

對未來的選擇做過度的投資。

based on present preferences.

On average, people are willing to pay about 60% more

平均說來，一般人 願意花多少錢去聽

他們目前最愛的音樂家 未來十年後的音樂，

to see their current favorite musician ten years in the future

than they’d currently pay to see their favorite musician from ten years ago.

以及多少錢去聽十年前的音樂會， 一般來說，前者高出 60%。

While the stakes involved in concert-going are low,

雖然去聽音樂會 所涉及的利害關係很低，

we’re susceptible to similar miscalculations

但我們在做更重要的承諾時，

也會受到類似的錯誤計算所影響，

in more serious commitments,

like homes,

包括和家、另一半， 以及工作有關的承諾。

partners,

and jobs.

At the same time, there’s no real way to predict

同時，我們不可能預測

what our preferences will be in the future.

我們未來的偏好會是什麼。

Without the end of history Illusion,

若沒有歷史終止幻覺，

it would be difficult to make any long-term plans.

就很難做任何長期的計畫。

So the end of history illusion applies to our individual lives,

所以，歷史終止錯覺會被 應用在我們個人的生活中，

but what about the wider world?

但若在更廣大的世界中呢？

Could we be assuming that how things are now is how they will continue to be?

我們有沒有可能假設了

事物現在的樣子會一直持續下去？

If so, fortunately, there are countless records

如果是的話，很幸運， 有無數的記錄

to remind us that the world does change, sometimes for the better.

提醒我們，世界會改變，

有時會變得更好。

Our own historical moment isn’t the end of history,

我們自己的歷史性時刻 並不是歷史終止的時刻，

and that can be just as much a source of comfort as a cause for concern.

這一點，既讓人感到安慰， 也讓人感到擔心。