How to spot a pyramid scheme - Stacie Bosley

6,017,905 views ・ 2019-04-02

TED-Ed


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: shuping Lai 校对人员: Ziyao Wang
00:07
In 2004,
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2004年,
00:08
a new company called Vemma Nutrition
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一家名为Vemma营养的公司
00:10
started offering a life-changing opportunity
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开始提供一个改变人生的机会,
00:13
to earn full time income for part time work.
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只需要做兼职即可获得全职报酬。
00:17
Vemma’s offer was open to everybody,
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Vemma的这个职位向所有人敞开,
00:19
regardless of prior experience or education.
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不论你是否有工作经验或教育背景。
00:22
There were only two steps to start get started earning:
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只要两步即可开始赚钱:
00:25
purchase a $500-600 kit of their liquid nutrition products,
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购买一份500到600美元的 该公司营养饮料产品的装备,
00:29
and recruit two more members to do the same.
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并招募再两名成员也来做这件事。
00:32
Vemma Nutrition Company grew quickly,
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这家公司成长迅速,
00:34
becoming a global operation
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并在国际范围内运转,
00:36
that brought in 30,000 new members per month at its peak.
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最高时每月能招募 30000名新成员。
00:41
There was just one problem—
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这其中只有一个问题--
00:42
while the company generated $200 million of annual revenue by 2013,
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当这家公司在2013年 达到年利润达到2亿美元时,
00:48
the vast majority of participants earned less than they paid in.
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大部分的参与者 赚的没有投入的多。
00:52
Vemma was eventually charged with operating a pyramid scheme:
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Vemma最终被以层压式推销 (也就是金字塔骗局)起诉:
00:56
a common type of fraud
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这是一种常见的骗局,
00:57
where members make money
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参与者们通过
00:58
by recruiting more people to buy in.
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招来更多的人投资来赚钱。
01:01
Typically, the founder solicits an initial group of people
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创始人一般说服 起始的小团队
01:04
to buy in and promote the scheme.
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投资并宣传他们的计划。
01:06
They are then encouraged to recruit others
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接着鼓励他们招募新人
01:08
and promised part of the money those people invest,
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并允诺回报他们投资的那部分钱财,
01:12
while the founder also takes a share.
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同时创始人也捞上一笔。
01:14
The pattern repeats for each group of new participants,
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这一模式在新的参与者中重复,
01:17
with money from recent arrivals funneled to those who recruited them.
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最后新投资人的钱汇总回馈给招募者。
01:21
This differs from a Ponzi scheme,
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这和庞氏骗局不同,
01:23
where the founders recruit new members
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庞氏骗局的创始者招募新人
01:25
and secretly use their fees to pay existing members,
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并私底下用新投资者的钱 回馈现存的老投资者,
01:28
who think the payments come from a legitimate investment.
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老投资者们认为回馈是来自合法的投资。
01:32
As a pyramid scheme grows,
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当金字塔骗局壮大时,
01:34
it becomes increasingly difficult for new recruits to make money.
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新投资人很难再赚到钱。
01:37
That’s because the number of participants expands exponentially.
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因为加入者的数量呈指数型递增。
01:42
Take a structure where each person has to recruit six more to earn a profit.
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就拿一个需要招募六人 来实现盈利的结构来说。
01:46
The founder recruits six people to start,
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创始人招募六个人来开始计划,
01:49
and each of them recruits six more.
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每一个人再招募六个人。
01:51
There are 36 people in that second round of recruits,
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完成第二轮招募就有36个人,
01:54
who then each recruit 6 people—
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他们再每人招募6人--
01:57
a total of 216 new recruits.
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--总共216个新投资者
02:01
By the twelfth round of recruiting,
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在第12轮招募过后,
02:03
the 2.1 billion newest members would have to recruit
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将有21亿人在这个团伙中, 亟需招募新人,
02:07
over 13 billion more people total to make money–
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总共130亿人参与盈利--
02:11
more than the entire world population.
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超过整个世界人口。
02:14
In this scenario,
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这个情况下,
02:15
the most recent recruits,
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最新加入的投资者,
02:16
over 80% of the scheme’s participants,
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即整个骗局的80%,
02:19
lose all the money they paid in.
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将会失去他们投入的全部钱。
02:22
And in real life,
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在现实生活中,
02:23
many earlier joiners lose out too.
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许多老投资者也会亏本。
02:27
Pyramid schemes are illegal in most countries,
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金字塔骗局在大多数国家是非法的,
02:29
but they can be difficult to detect.
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但它们很难被察觉。
02:31
They are presented as many different things,
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他们以很多种外表呈现,
02:34
including gifting groups,
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包括礼品销售团队,
02:36
investment clubs, and multi-level marketing businesses.
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投资俱乐部,多层营销公司。
02:39
The distinction between pyramid schemes and legitimate multi-level marketing
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合法的分级营销和 金字塔骗局有区别,
02:44
can be particularly hazy.
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但界线非常模糊。
02:46
In theory, the difference is that
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理论上,它们的区别在于,
02:47
the members of the multi-level marketing companies
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分级营销公司的员工
02:50
primarily earn compensation from selling a particular product or a service
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主要通过销售特定商品或服务得到报酬,
02:54
to retail customers,
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且卖给零售消费者,
02:56
while pyramid schemes primarily compensate members for recruitment of new sellers.
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而金字塔骗局主要通过 招揽新投资人给老投资人报酬。
03:01
In practice, though,
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实际上,
03:02
many multi-level marketing companies make it all but impossible
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许多分级营销公司让员工 通过单纯销售
03:05
for members to profit purely through sales.
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而可能获得盈利。
03:08
And many pyramid schemes, like Vemma Nutrition,
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而像Vemma这样的层压式推销组织,
通过所谓的产品或服务 掩盖招募-回馈的架构,
03:11
disguise themselves as legal multi-level marketing businesses,
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03:15
using a product or service to hide the pay-and-recruit structure.
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把自己伪装成合法的分级营销产业。
03:19
Many pyramid schemes also capitalize on already existing trust within churches,
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许多层压式推销组织还利用
教堂,移民社区或其他紧密联结的团体 成员之间的信任。
03:25
immigrant communities, or other tightly knit groups.
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03:28
The first few members are encouraged to report a good experience
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最先加入的投资者 在真的开始获取利润之前
被要求说自己体验良好。
03:32
before they actually start making a profit.
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03:34
Others in their network follow their example,
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团体中的其他人也效仿这种做法,
03:37
and the schemes balloon in size
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在大多数人意识到 他们并未赚到钱之前
03:39
before it comes clear that most members aren’t actually profiting.
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骗局像气球一样不断膨胀。
通常骗局的受害者会羞于启齿。
03:43
Often, the victims are embarrassed into silence.
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03:46
Pyramid schemes entice people with the promise of opportunity and empowerment.
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层压式推销组织还利用机会 和授权的口头保证诱骗人们。
所以当投资者没有赚到钱时,
03:51
So when members don’t end up making money,
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03:53
they can blame themselves rather than the scheme,
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他们会责怪自己而非这个组织,
03:56
thinking they weren’t tenacious enough to earn the returns promised.
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他们认为自己不够顽强, 所以赚不到事先保证的收益。
04:00
Some victims keep trying,
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一些受害者受骗后会继续尝试,
04:02
investing in multiple schemes,
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在多个金字塔骗局中投资,
04:04
and losing money each time.
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但每次都无功而返。
04:06
In spite of all these factors,
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尽管有上述因素,
04:08
there are ways to spot a pyramid scheme.
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还是有办法能识别金字塔骗局。
04:11
Time pressure is one red flag—
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“时间紧迫性”是一个警告--
04:13
be wary of directives to “act now or miss a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”
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一定要警惕“现在入手 否则错失人生良机”的指示。
04:19
Promises of large, life-altering amounts of income are also suspect.
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一些诸如“巨大的,改变人生 数额的收益”的承诺也很可疑。
04:24
And finally, a legitimate multi-level marketing business
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最后,合法的分级营销
不应该要求员工为销售 该组织产品的机会付款。
04:28
shouldn’t require members to pay for the opportunity to sell a product or service.
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04:33
Pyramid schemes can be incredibly destructive to individuals,
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金字塔骗局对个体, 团体,甚至整个国家,
04:37
communities, and even entire countries.
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是毁灭性的。
04:40
But you can fight fire with fire
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但你可以以毒攻毒,
04:42
by sending this video to three people you know,
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把这个视频发送给你认识的三个人,
04:45
and encouraging them to do the same.
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也让他们继续转发下去。
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