This one weird trick will help you spot clickbait - Jeff Leek & Lucy McGowan

翻译人员: Candace Hwang 校对人员: Carol Wang

One simple vitamin can reduce your risk of heart disease.

“一种简单的维生素 即可降低患心脏病的风险”，

Eating chocolate reduces stress in students.

“吃巧克力可为学生减压”，

New drug prolongs lives of patients with rare disease.

“新药延长了罕见病患者寿命”，

Health headlines like these are published every day,

类似的健康标题每天都在发表，

sometimes making opposite claims from each other.

有时提出相互矛盾的主张。

There can be a disconnect between broad,

宽泛且引人注目的头条新闻，

attention-grabbing headlines and the often specific,

与涵盖的具体医学研究结果之间

incremental results of the medical research they cover.

可能存在脱节。

So how can you avoid being misled by grabby headlines?

那么，如何避免被“标题党”误导呢？

The best way to assess a headline’s credibility

评估标题可信度的最佳方式

is to look at the original research it reports on.

是查看原始研究报告。

We’ve come up with a hypothetical research scenario

我们为每一个头条新闻

for each of these three headlines.

构思了假设的研究场景，

Keep watching for the explanation of the first example;

先查看第一个例子的解释，

then pause at the headline to answer the question.

然后在标题处暂停，回答问题。

These are simplified scenarios.

这是简化的流程，

A real study would detail many more factors and how it accounted for them,

真正的研究会详细说明 多种因素及其影响。

but for the purposes of this exercise,

但就本练习而言，

assume all the information you need is included.

假设已包含需要的所有信息。

Let’s start by considering the cardiovascular effects

让我们首先思考 一种维生素 Healthium

of a certain vitamin, Healthium.

The study finds that participants taking Healthium

该研究发现， 服用 Healthium 的参与者

had a higher level of healthy cholesterol than those taking a placebo.

相较于服用安慰剂的人 健康胆固醇指标更高。

Their levels became similar to those of people with naturally high levels

他们的该项指标 与天生健康胆固醇高的人

指标一样。

of this kind of cholesterol.

Previous research has shown that people with naturally high levels

以前的研究表明，

健康胆固醇水平高的人 患心脏病的几率较低。

of healthy cholesterol have lower rates of heart disease.

So what makes this headline misleading:

“Healthium 可降低患心脏病的风险”，

"Healthium reduces risk of heart disease."

此标题产生误导的根源是什么呢？

The problem with this headline is that the research didn’t actually investigate

此标题的问题在于， 该研究实际上没有调查

whether Healthium reduces heart disease.

Healthium 是否可降低心脏病。

It only measured Healthium’s impact

它只测量了

on levels of a particular kind of cholesterol.

Healthium 对某种胆固醇水平的影响。

The fact that people with naturally high levels of that cholesterol

该胆固醇天生水平高的人

have lower risk of heart attacks

心脏病发作的风险较低，

doesn’t mean that the same will be true of people

并不意味着

who elevate their cholesterol levels using Healthium.

用 Healthium 提高胆固醇水平的人也如此。

Now that you’ve cracked the case of Healthium,

现在你已经破解了 Healthium 的案例，

try your hand at a particularly alluring mystery:

试着破解一个特别诱人的谜题吧：

the relationship between eating chocolate and stress.

“吃巧克力和压力之间的关系”。

This hypothetical study recruits ten students.

这项假设的研究招募了十名学生。

Half begin consuming a daily dose of chocolate,

一半人开始每天吃一定量的巧克力，

while half abstain.

而另一半没有吃。

As classmates, they all follow the same schedule.

他们同班，所以时间表也相同。

By the end of the study, the chocolate eaters are less stressed

研究结束时，巧克力食用者

than their chocolate-free counterparts.

相较于未食用者压力较小。

What’s wrong with this headline:

“吃巧克力可减少学生压力”，

"Eating chocolate reduces stress in students"

此标题的问题是什么呢？

It’s a stretch to draw a conclusion about students in general from a sample of ten.

从十个样本中得出关于一般 学生的结论是牵强附会的。

That’s because the fewer participants are in a random sample,

因为随机选取样本的人数越少，

the less likely it is that the sample will closely represent

样本就越不能代表

the target population as a whole.

整体的目标人群。

For example, if the broader population of students is half male and half female,

例如，更广泛的学生群体 是一半男生一半女生，

the chance of drawing a sample of 10

抽 10 人的样本，

that’s skewed 70% male and 30% is about 12%.

其中 70％ 男生 30% 女生 概率约为 12％。

In a sample of 100 that would be less than a .0025% chance,

100 人的样本中， 则概率小于 0.0025％，

and for a sample of 1000,

对于 1000 的样本，

the odds are less than 6 x 10^-36.

其概率小于 6 x 10 ^ -36。

Similarly, with fewer participants,

同样，由于参与者较少，

each individual’s outcome has a larger impact on the overall results—

个人结果对整体结果影响较大——

and can therefore skew big-picture trends.

因此会扭曲大局趋势。

Still, there are a lot of good reasons for scientists to run small studies.

不过，仍有很多好的理由 支持科学家们进行小型研究。

By starting with a small sample,

以小样本开始，

they can evaluate whether the results are promising enough

他们能评估结果是否有希望

to run a more comprehensive, expensive study.

进行更全面、昂贵的研究。

And some research requires very specific participants

有些研究需要特殊参与者，

that may be impossible to recruit in large numbers.

可能无法大量招募。

The key is reproducibility—

关键在于可重复性——

if an article draws a conclusion from one small study,

如果一篇文章从一项 小型研究中得出结论，

that conclusion may be suspect—

结论也许是可疑的——

but if it’s based on many studies that have found similar results,

但如果它从许多研究中 都得到类似结论，

it’s more credible.

结论便更可信。

We’ve still got one more puzzle.

我们还剩一个难题，

In this scenario, a study tests a new drug for a rare, fatal disease.

此案例中，一项研究测试了一种 治疗罕见致命疾病的新药。

In a sample of 2,000 patients,

2000 名患者的样本中，

the ones who start taking the drug upon diagnosis

被诊断患病并开始服用该药的人

live longer than those who take the placebo.

比服用安慰剂的人活得久。

This time, the question is slightly different.

这一次，问题略有不同。

What’s one more thing you’d like to know before deciding if the headline,

在判断标题“新药延长了罕见疾病 患者的生命”是否恰当之前，

"New drug prolongs lives of patients with rare disease", is justified?

你还要再清楚一件什么事呢？

Before making this call,

做这个决定之前，

you’d want to know how much the drug prolonged the patients’ lives.

你想知道用药 对病人生命药延长多久。

Sometimes, a study can have results that,

有时，一项研究结果

while scientifically valid, don’t have much bearing on real world outcomes.

虽然科学上讲是有效的， 但对现实世界的结果影响不大。

For example, one real-life clinical trial of a pancreatic cancer drug

例如，一项胰腺癌药物的 现实临床试验发现，

found an increase in life expectancy— of ten days.

预期寿命增加了 10 天。

The next time you see a surprising medical headline,

当你下次看到令人惊讶的医学标题，

take a look at the science it’s reporting on.

看看它报道的科学性。

Even when full papers aren’t available without a fee,

即使没有免费提供完整的论文，

you can often find summaries of experimental design

也可以在免费摘要中

and results in freely available abstracts,

找到实验设计概要和实验结果，

or even within the text of a news article.

甚至在新闻文本中也能找到。

It’s exciting to see scientific research covered in the news,

看到新闻报道的科学研究令人兴奋，

and important to understand the studies’ findings.

但理解研究结果也很重要。