Paul Romer: Why the world needs charter cities

162,269 views ・ 2009-08-05

TED


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譯者: Sherri Wu 審譯者: Shelley Krishna Tsang
00:18
Take a look at this picture.
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請看一下這張照片
00:21
It poses a very fascinating puzzle for us.
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擺在我們眼前的是一個很妙的謎題
00:24
These African students are doing their homework
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這些非洲學生正在做功課
00:28
under streetlights at the airport in the capital city
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地點是在首都機場的路燈下
00:31
because they don't have any electricity at home.
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因為他們家裡沒有電
00:35
Now, I haven't met these particular students,
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我並沒有見過照片裡的這些學生
00:37
but I've met students like them.
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但我碰過像他們一樣的學生
00:39
Let's just pick one -- for example, the one in the green shirt.
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讓我們挑一位做例子, 就那位穿綠衣服的好了
00:43
Let's give him a name, too: Nelson.
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我們姑且稱呼他為尼爾森吧
00:45
I'll bet Nelson has a cellphone.
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我想尼爾森應該有手機
00:48
So here is the puzzle.
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所以謎題來了:
00:50
Why is it that Nelson has access
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為什麼尼爾森可以擁有
00:52
to a cutting-edge technology, like the cellphone,
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像手機這樣尖端的科技產品
00:55
but doesn't have access to a 100-year-old technology
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卻無法享受老早就有的科技
00:58
for generating electric light in the home?
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好讓自己家裡有電燈用?
01:02
Now, in a word, the answer is "rules."
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簡單來說, 謎底就是: 體制
01:05
Bad rules can prevent the kind of win-win solution that's available
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不良的制度會阻礙雙贏辦法的產生
01:10
when people can bring new technologies in
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譬如即使有人可以把新科技帶進(非洲)
01:13
and make them available to someone like Nelson.
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像尼爾森這樣的學生也無法受惠
01:16
What kinds of rules?
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那麼這些(不良)制度是什麼呢?
01:18
The electric company in this nation
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這個國家的電力公司
01:21
operates under a rule, which says that it has to sell
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遵循一套營運的制度,就是在政府補貼的情況下
01:23
electricity at a very low, subsidized price --
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跟用戶收取極低的電費
01:26
in fact, a price that is so low it loses money on every unit that it sells.
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事實上,這個電費低到每賣一度電,就虧一度電
01:30
So it has neither the resources, nor the incentives,
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所以公司既無資源、也無動機
01:34
to hook up many other users.
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去幫許多用戶配電
01:36
The president wanted to change this rule.
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於是總統想改變這個制度
01:39
He's seen that it's possible to have a different set of rules,
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他見過也因此知道體制的改革是可行的
01:42
rules where businesses earn a small profit,
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改變後的體制可以幫助企業獲利
01:45
so they have an incentive to sign up more customers.
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使他們有動機去服務更多客戶
01:47
That's the kind of rules that the cellphone company
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提供尼爾森手機服務的電信業者
01:51
that Nelson purchases his telephony from operates under.
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就是在這樣的體制下運作的
01:55
The president has seen how those rules worked well.
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總統知道這種體制的好處
01:58
So he tried to change the rules for pricing on electricity,
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所以想如法炮製改變電價制定的方式
02:01
but ran into a firestorm of protest
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但他面臨的卻是來自企業及客戶
02:03
from businesses and consumers
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排山倒海的抗議
02:05
who wanted to preserve the existing subsidized rates.
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這些人想維持現有的補助制度
02:09
So he was stuck with rules that prevented him
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因此阻撓總統,使他無法藉由雙贏辦法
02:13
from letting the win-win solution help his country.
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來幫助他的國家
02:18
And Nelson is stuck studying under the streetlights.
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而尼爾森也只得困在路燈下讀書
02:23
The real challenge then, is to try to figure out
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由此看來,我們真正的挑戰在於找出
02:25
how we can change rules.
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改變體制的辦法
02:28
Are there some rules we can develop for changing rules?
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那麼我們可以發展甚麼“改變制度的制度”呢?
02:32
I want to argue that there is a general abstract insight
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我的論點是,我們可以將一個抽象的想法
02:36
that we can make practical,
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化為實際行動
02:38
which is that, if we can give more choices to people,
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亦即提供人民更多選擇
02:41
and more choices to leaders --
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也給統治者更多選擇
02:45
who, in many countries, are also people.
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雖然在很多國家裡統治者就是人民
02:48
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:51
But, it's useful to present the opposition between these two.
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不過區分這二者還是有必要的
02:55
Because the kind of choice you might want to give to a leader,
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因為有時候你想給統治者的那種選擇
02:58
a choice like giving the president the choice
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譬如在賦予總統
03:00
to raise prices on electricity,
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提高電價的抉擇權時
03:03
takes away a choice that people in the economy want.
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你同時也剝奪了人民想要的某種經濟自由
03:06
They want the choice to be able to continue consuming
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那就是他們希望能選擇繼續享有
03:08
subsidized electric power.
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政府補貼的電價
03:11
So if you give just to one side or the other,
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所以如果你只提供某一方選擇的自由
03:13
you'll have tension or friction.
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你將面臨對立或是摩擦
03:16
But if we can find ways to give more choices to both,
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但如果我們可以想辦法給雙方更多的選擇
03:19
that will give us a set of rules
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我們就能發展出一套制度
03:21
for changing rules that get us out of traps.
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來改變體制,救民於水火
03:26
Now, Nelson also has access to the Internet.
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尼爾森也有網路用
03:29
And he says that if you want to see
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他說如果你想見識
03:31
the damaging effects of rules,
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(不良)體制的破壞力
03:33
the ways that rules can keep people in the dark,
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是如何使人民生活在黑暗中
03:35
look at the pictures from NASA of the earth at night.
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不妨看看美國太空總署拍攝的地球夜景
03:39
In particular check out Asia.
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特別是亞洲
03:41
If you zoom in here,
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如果拉近一點來看這裡
03:44
you can see North Korea, in outline here,
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你可以看到北韓這塊
03:46
which is like a black hole compared to its neighbors.
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跟她的鄰國比起來就像是個黑洞
03:49
Now, you won't be surprised to learn
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我想你不會對這樣的發現感到驚訝
03:51
that the rules in North Korea
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就是北韓的體制
03:53
keep people there in the dark.
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如何陷他們的人民於黑暗之中
03:55
But it is important to recognize
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但值得我們正視的是
03:57
that North Korea and South Korea
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北韓和南韓
03:59
started out with identical sets of rules
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開始時用的是同一套制度
04:02
in both the sense of laws and regulations,
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無論在法條還是一般規範上
04:04
but also in the deeper senses of understandings,
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甚至更深層的方面:認知、
04:08
norms, culture, values and beliefs.
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社會習俗、文化、價值觀以及信念
04:12
When they separated, they made choices
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但當他們分裂時,他們各自做了決定
04:14
that led to very divergent paths
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因此在體制面走上了
04:16
for their sets of rules.
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截然不同的道路
04:18
So we can change -- we as humans can change the rules
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所以我們是可以改變的;人類可以改變
04:21
that we use to interact with each other,
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彼此互動的準則
04:23
for better, or for worse.
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儘管結果是未知數
04:27
Now let's look at another region, the Caribbean.
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現在讓我們來看看另一區:加勒比海
04:30
Zoom in on Haiti,
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鏡頭拉到海地
04:32
in outline here.
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框起來的這裡
04:34
Haiti is also dark,
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海地也很暗
04:36
compared to its neighbor here, the Dominican Republic,
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與她的鄰居多明尼加相比
04:39
which has about the same number of residents.
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二國的人口數差不多
04:42
Both of these countries are dark compared to Puerto Rico,
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也都比波多黎各暗
04:45
which has half as many residents
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而波多黎各的人口數卻只有
04:47
as either Haiti or the Dominican Republic.
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海地或多明尼加的一半
04:50
What Haiti warns us is that
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所以海地提醒我們的是
04:52
rules can be bad because governments are weak.
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體制之所以不良,有可能是因為政府的軟弱
04:56
It's not just that the rules are bad because
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不見得都是因為強權或政府專制
04:58
the government is too strong and oppressive, as in North Korea.
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像北韓的情況那樣
05:01
So that if we want to create environments with good rules,
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所以如果我們想創造一個有良好體制的環境
05:04
we can't just tear down.
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我們不能只是破壞
05:06
We've got to find ways to build up, as well.
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還要想辦法建設
05:10
Now, China dramatically demonstrates
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現在,中國戲劇性地向我們展示了
05:13
both the potential and the challenges
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與體制周旋時所遇到的
05:15
of working with rules.
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危機與轉機
05:18
Back in the beginning of the data presented in this chart,
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讓我們回這份資料的一開頭
05:21
China was the world's high-technology leader.
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中國曾引領世界高科技
05:24
Chinese had pioneered technologies like steel, printing, gunpowder.
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中國人的科技像煉鋼、印刷、火藥等都是先驅
05:29
But the Chinese never adopted, at least in that period,
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然而中國人從未採用,至少在當時
05:32
effective rules for encouraging the spread of those ideas --
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一套有效的制度來推動想法的傳播,例如
05:36
a profit motive that could have encouraged the spread.
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他們從未由利益觀點出發,來推動思想的傳播
05:38
And they soon adopted rules which
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而且他們很快就採用一套制度
05:40
slowed down innovation
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來放慢自己創新的腳步
05:43
and cut China off from the rest of the world.
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使中國與世界隔絕
05:45
So as other countries in the world innovated,
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所以當其他國家開始創新
05:48
in the sense both of developing
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不僅發展
05:50
newer technologies,
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新科技
05:52
but also developing newer rules,
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更建立新制度時
05:54
the Chinese were cut off from those advances.
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中國卻無緣參與這些進步
05:58
Income there stayed stagnant,
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國民所得停滯不前
06:00
as it zoomed ahead in the rest of the world.
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也不再是世界舞台的焦點
06:03
This next chart looks at more recent data.
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下張圖表是比較近期的資料
06:06
It plots income, average income in China
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顯示的是中國的平均所得
06:08
as a percentage of average income in the United States.
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佔美國平均所得的百分比
06:11
In the '50s and '60s you can see that it was hovering at about three percent.
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在50、60年代時你們可以看到這個數字大約是3%
06:14
But then in the late '70s something changed.
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但到了70年代末期,情況有些改變了
06:17
Growth took off in China. The Chinese started catching up
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中國經濟開始起飛
06:20
very quickly with the United States.
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中國人開始迎頭趕上美國
06:23
If you go back to the map at night, you can get a clue
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如果你們回過來看一下這個夜景圖,就會發現
06:26
to the process that lead to the dramatic change in rules in China.
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是什麼樣的過程帶動中國體制的大轉變
06:29
The brightest spot in China,
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中國最亮的這點
06:32
which you can see on the edge of the outline here,
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就是你們在輪廓邊上看到的這點
06:35
is Hong Kong.
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是香港
06:37
Hong Kong was a small bit of China
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香港本來是中國領土中很小的一點
06:40
that, for most of the 20th century,
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在20世紀大部分的時候
06:42
operated under a very different set of rules
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都是遵循一套很不一樣的體制在運作
06:44
than the rest of mainland China --
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與中國其他地方都不同
06:46
rules that were copied
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這套制度是仿效
06:48
from working market economies of the time,
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當時盛行的, 由英國主導的
06:50
and administered by the British.
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市場經濟體制
06:53
In the 1950s, Hong Kong was a place where
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在50年代, 香港是一個
06:56
millions of people could go, from the mainland,
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成千上萬中國人都可以去
06:58
to start in jobs like sewing shirts, making toys.
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打工的地方, 譬如成衣業、玩具業
07:03
But, to get on a process of increasing income,
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而這原本只是為了增加收入
07:06
increasing skills
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增進技能的過程
07:08
led to very rapid growth there.
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卻帶動了地方上快速的成長
07:11
Hong Kong was also the model
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香港當時也是一個範本
07:13
which leaders like Deng Xiaoping
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是讓中國領導人如鄧小平
07:16
could copy, when they decided to move
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可以拿來複製的一個對象,當他們決定
07:18
all of the mainland towards the market model.
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在整個中國大陸推行市場經濟
07:22
But Deng Xiaoping instinctively understood
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不過鄧小平直覺地了解到
07:24
the importance of offering choices to his people.
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提供人民選擇的重要性
07:28
So instead of forcing everyone in China
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因此與其強迫所有人
07:31
to shift immediately to the market model,
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立刻轉而支持市場經濟模式
07:33
they proceeded by creating some special zones
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不如從設立一些特區著手
07:36
that could do, in a sense, what Britain did:
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從某方面來說,類似英國人採用的辦法
07:38
make the opportunity to go work with the market rules
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使機會與市場體制結合
07:40
available to the people who wanted to opt in there.
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讓想參與的民眾有地方可以發揮
07:43
So they created four special economic zones around Hong Kong:
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因此他們在香港周圍建了四個經濟特區
07:46
zones where Chinese could come and work,
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讓中國人民可以到這些地方工作
07:49
and cities grew up very rapidly there;
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於是城市很快地發展起來
07:51
also zones where foreign firms could come in
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外國企業同樣也可以到這些特區
07:54
and make things.
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設點、生產製造
07:56
One of the zones next to Hong Kong has a city called Shenzhen.
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在香港旁邊的這些特區裡有個城市 - 深圳
07:59
In that city there is a Taiwanese firm
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有台灣企業在那裡設廠
08:02
that made the iPhone that many of you have,
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生產在座很多人都在使用的iPhone
08:05
and they made it with labor from Chinese
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而他們就是利用從中國其他地方來到深圳
08:08
who moved there to Shenzhen.
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打工的這些勞動力
08:10
So after the four special zones,
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所以繼這四個特區之後
08:12
there were 14 coastal cites
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又有14個沿海城市
08:14
that were open in the same sense,
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依循相同的模式發展起來
08:16
and eventually demonstrated successes
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最後,這些地方的成功
08:19
in these places that people could opt in to,
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就是人民可以選擇
08:21
that they flocked to because of the advantages they offered.
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接受它們提供的有利條件來到這些地方工作
08:24
Demonstrated successes there led to a consensus for
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更成功促成了全國性的共識
08:28
a move toward the market model for the entire economy.
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使整體經濟向市場模式靠攏
08:33
Now the Chinese example shows us several points.
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中國的例子顯示了以下幾點
08:37
One is: preserve choices for people.
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第一:保留人民選擇的權力
08:40
Two: operate on the right scale.
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第二:運作的規模要選對
08:42
If you try to change the rules in a village, you could do that,
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如果你想改變一個村落的體制,你可以這麼做
08:45
but a village would be too small
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但村落這個單位太小了
08:47
to get the kinds of benefits you can get if you have millions of people
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對一個有上億人口的國家來說,想要透過改變村落
08:49
all working under good rules.
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來改善一國的體制,恐怕很難成功
08:51
On the other hand, the nation is too big.
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另一方面,以國家為單位又太大
08:54
If you try to change the rules in the nation,
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如果你想一下子改變一國的體制
08:56
you can't give some people a chance
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就無法給那些暫時不想改變的人一個機會
08:58
to hold back, see how things turn out,
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多觀望一會兒,看看事情的結果如何
09:00
and let others zoom ahead and try the new rules.
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同時又能讓其他想嘗試新制度的人放手去做
09:03
But cities give you this opportunity
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而以城市為單位卻能給你這個機會
09:05
to create new places,
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去創立新地點
09:07
with new rules that people can opt in to.
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藉由新制度讓人民來此從事經濟活動
09:09
And they're large enough
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而且城市作為改變的單位也夠大
09:11
to get all of the benefits that we can have
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當成千上萬人在新體制下工作
09:13
when millions of us work together under good rules.
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這規模足以讓我們獲得所有預期的好處
09:17
So the proposal is that we
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所以我的提議是
09:20
conceive of something called a charter city.
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建構一個叫做“特區市”的東西
09:23
We start with a charter that specifies
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我們從一個囊括各項細則的整體規劃開始
09:25
all the rules required
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制定各項必需的制度
09:27
to attract the people who we'll need to build the city.
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來吸引建造這座城市所需的人力
09:31
We'll need to attract the investors
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我們會需要吸引投資者
09:33
who will build out the infrastructure --
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這些人將投資興建各項基礎建設
09:35
the power system, the roads, the port, the airport, the buildings.
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電力系統、道路、港口、機場、及樓房
09:38
You'll need to attract firms,
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你會需要吸引企業
09:40
who will come hire the people who move there first.
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他們所雇用的人力將是這城市第一批移入的居民
09:43
And you'll need to attract families,
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然後你會需要吸引家家戶戶
09:45
the residents who will come and live there permanently,
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願意搬來成為永久居民的人
09:47
raise their children, get an education for their children,
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在這裡養育子女
09:49
and get their first job.
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並開始他們的第一份工作
09:51
With that charter, people will move there.
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一旦有了整體規劃,人群會開始移入
09:54
The city can be built.
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城市就可以被建造起來
09:56
And we can scale this model.
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然後我們可以評估這個模式
09:58
We can go do it over and over again.
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進而不斷重複這個模式
10:02
To make it work, we need good rules. We've already discussed that.
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為了成功,我們需要好的制度。這點剛已經討論過了
10:05
Those are captured in the charter.
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也已經包含在所謂的整體規劃裡
10:07
We also need the choices for people.
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另外我們還需要提供人民許多選擇
10:10
That's really built into the model
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這也是這個模式的真諦
10:12
if we allow for the possibility of building cities
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如果我們接受在無人之地
10:15
on uninhabited land.
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造市的可能性
10:17
You start from uninhabited territory.
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你著手開發無人之地
10:19
People can come live under the new charter,
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人們可以搬來按照新的規劃生活
10:21
but no one is forced to live under it.
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但沒有一個人是被迫的
10:24
The final thing we need are choices for leaders.
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最後我們需要的是給領導者選擇
10:27
And, to achieve the kind of choices we want for leaders
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而為了使領導者做出符合我們期望的選擇
10:29
we need to allow for the potential for partnerships between nations:
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我們需要發展國際合作的可能性
10:33
cases where nations work together,
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創造國與國之間
10:35
in effect, de facto,
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有效的合作模式
10:37
the way China and Britain worked together
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就像從前中國和英國之間的合作
10:39
to build, first a little enclave of the market model,
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先在一個小小的殖民地試行市場經濟模式
10:43
and then scale it throughout China.
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然後再推行到全中國
10:45
In a sense, Britain, inadvertently,
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從這個方面來看,英國倒是無意間
10:47
through its actions in Hong Kong,
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藉由她在香港所行的措施
10:49
did more to reduce world poverty
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減少了世界貧窮
10:52
than all the aid programs that we've undertaken
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所得的成果比上個世紀
10:54
in the last century.
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所有援助計畫加起來還要大
10:56
So if we allow for these kind of partnerships
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所以如果我們願意讓這樣的合作模式
10:58
to replicate this again,
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再度重現
11:00
we can get those kinds of benefits scaled throughout the world.
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我們可以使全世界都受惠
11:04
In some cases this will involve a delegation of responsibility,
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在某些情況下這種模式當然也包含了權力的分配
11:08
a delegation of control from one country to another
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一國將統治權下放給另一國
11:12
to take over certain kinds of administrative responsibilities.
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使其能行使某些特定的行政權
11:16
Now, when I say that,
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當我提到這點
11:19
some of you are starting to think,
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在座有些開始會想
11:21
"Well, is this just bringing back colonialism?"
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“這豈不是讓殖民主義死灰復燃?”
11:26
It's not. But it's important to recognize that the kind of emotions
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當然不是。不過正視這樣的情緒是很重要的
11:30
that come up when we start to think about these things,
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因為當我們開始思考這些事情
11:32
can get in the way, can make us pull back,
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那樣的情緒會扯我們的後腿
11:35
can shut down our ability,
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消耗我們的能力
11:37
and our interest in trying to explore new ideas.
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和探索新想法的意願
11:40
Why is this not like colonialism?
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為甚麼這跟殖民主義不同?
11:42
The thing that was bad about colonialism,
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殖民主義不好的地方在於
11:45
and the thing which is residually bad in some of our aid programs,
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其實今天我們有些援助計畫也有這個遺毒
11:49
is that it involved elements of
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就是它具有
11:51
coercion and condescension.
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強制和優越的元素
11:54
This model is all about choices,
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而我們的模式則完全關乎選擇
11:56
both for leaders and for the people who will live in these new places.
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在這些新地方的領導者與人民同樣都有選擇
12:00
And, choice is the antidote to coercion and condescension.
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而“選擇”正是化解強制和優越的良方
12:04
So let's talk about how this could play out in practice.
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所以讓我們來談談如何落實這個想法
12:07
Let's take a particular leader, Raul Castro, who is the leader of Cuba.
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讓我們以古巴領導人卡斯楚為例
12:10
It must have occurred to Castro
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卡斯楚一定也想過
12:12
that he has the chance to do for Cuba
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他有機會為古巴做到
12:15
what Deng Xiaoping did for China,
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像鄧小平為中國做到的事
12:17
but he doesn't have a Hong Kong there on the island in Cuba.
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然而古巴並沒有像香港那樣的小島
12:21
He does, though, have a little bit of light down in the south
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但他還是在南部一個小點那看見契機
12:25
that has a very special status.
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那個地方有著非常特別的地位
12:27
There is a zone there, around Guantanamo Bay,
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在關塔那摩灣周圍有一區
12:31
where a treaty gives the United States
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依照二國協定,美國
12:33
administrative responsibility
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在那裡有行政權
12:35
for a piece of land that's about twice the size of Manhattan.
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地方差不多是曼哈頓的二倍大
12:38
Castro goes to the prime minister of Canada
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卡斯楚跑去找加拿大總理
12:41
and says, "Look, the Yankees have a terrible PR problem.
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對他說:“欸,美國佬的人際關係糟透了
12:45
They want to get out.
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他們想退出
12:47
Why don't you, Canada, take over?
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你們加拿大何不接手呢?
12:49
Build -- run a special administrative zone.
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治理一個特別行政區
12:53
Allow a new city to be built up there.
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在那裡建造一座新城市
12:55
Allow many people to come in.
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鼓勵許多人移居
12:57
Let us have a Hong Kong nearby.
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讓我們附近能有一個香港
12:59
Some of my citizens will move into that city as well.
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我們的一些國民也會移居那座城市
13:02
Others will hold back. But this will be
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其他人會觀望
13:04
the gateway that will connect
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但這將是一座橋梁
13:06
the modern economy and the modern world
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能讓我國與現代化經濟
13:08
to my country."
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和世界接軌“。
13:10
Now, where else might this model be tried?
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這個模式還可以在哪裡試行呢?
13:13
Well, Africa. I've talked with leaders in Africa.
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我想是非洲。我已經與一些非洲領導人談過
13:15
Many of them totally get the notion of a special zone
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他們大都能理解特區的想法
13:19
that people can opt into as a rule.
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讓人民可以自由參與的制度
13:22
It's a rule for changing rules.
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正是可以"改變制度的制度"
13:24
It's a way to create new rules, and let people opt-in
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它可以創造新體制, 讓人民自由參與
13:27
without coercion, and the opposition that coercion can force.
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而非強制性的, 因此也不會引發抗爭
13:31
They also totally get the idea that in some instances
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他們也完全理解, 在某些情況下
13:34
they can make more credible promises to long-term investors --
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他們甚至能對長期投資者做出更有保障的承諾
13:38
the kind of investors who will come build the port,
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而這些投資者正是能建港口
13:40
build the roads, in a new city --
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並在新城市裡造橋鋪路的人
13:43
they can make more credible promises
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如果他們能與另一個國家合夥
13:45
if they do it along with a partner nation.
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便能做出更有保障的承諾
13:47
Perhaps even in some arrangement
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也許透過一些安排
13:49
that's a little bit like an escrow account,
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有點像信託管理帳戶
13:51
where you put land in the escrow account
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你把土地放在信託管理帳戶裡
13:53
and the partner nation takes responsibility for it.
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然後交由合夥的國家管理
13:56
There is also lots of land in Africa
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非洲有很多的土地
13:59
where new cities could be built.
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可以用來建造新城市
14:01
This is a picture I took when I was flying along the coast.
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這是一張我沿著海岸飛行時照的照片
14:04
There are immense stretches of land like this --
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像這樣一大片延伸出去的土地有很多
14:06
land where hundreds of millions of people could live.
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可以讓成千上萬的人居住
14:09
Now, if we generalize this and think about
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現在我們約略地來想一想:
14:11
not just one or two charter cites, but dozens --
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如果我們所考慮的不是一、二個特區市
14:14
cities that will help create places for the
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而是好幾個能為數億人創造
14:18
many hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people
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居住地方的城市,也許下個世紀
14:21
who will move to cities in the coming century --
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就會有數十億人移居到這些城市去
14:23
is there enough land for them?
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我們有足夠的土地容納他們嗎?
14:25
Well, throughout the world, if we look at the lights at night,
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當我們看到全世界這些夜晚的燈光
14:28
the one thing that's misleading is that, visually, it looks
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有一件事可能會誤導我們,就是表面看起來
14:30
like most of the world is already built out.
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世界上大部分的地區都已被開發
14:32
So let me show you why that's wrong.
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但我要告訴大家為何這是個誤解
14:35
Take this representation of all of the land.
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這個代表所有的土地
14:37
Turn it into a square that stands for
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把它變成一個方塊
14:39
all the arable land on Earth.
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代表地球上所有的可耕地
14:41
And let these dots represent the land that's already taken up
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然後這些點代表的
14:43
by the cities that three billion people now live in.
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是擁有30億城市人口的已開發地
14:46
If you move the dots down to the bottom of the rectangle
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如果你把這些點移到這個長方形的底部
14:49
you can see that the cities for the existing three billion urban residents
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你會發現這些有30億人口的城市
14:53
take up only three percent of the arable land on earth.
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只佔了地球上所有可耕地面積的3%
14:57
So if we wanted to build cities for another billion people,
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所以如果我們想再為數十億人建造城市
15:00
they would be dots like this.
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那些城市看起來也就像這些點
15:02
We'd go from three percent of the arable land, to four percent.
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所佔的可耕地面積將從3%升到4%
15:05
We'd dramatically reduce the human footprint on Earth
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透過建造更多適合人居的城市
15:09
by building more cities that people can move to.
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我們將大幅減少人類在地表上留下的足跡
15:11
And if these are cities governed by good rules,
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而且如果這些城市是依照良好的體制運作
15:14
they can be cities where people are safe from crime,
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城市的居民將免受犯罪、
15:17
safe from disease and bad sanitation,
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疾病、及公共衛生不良的威脅
15:20
where people have a chance to get a job.
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城市也會提供他們工作的機會
15:22
They can get basic utilities like electricity.
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他們可以享有譬如電力這樣的基礎設施
15:24
Their kids can get an education.
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他們的孩子可以受教育
15:27
So what will it take to get started
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那麼要建造特區市
15:29
building the first charter cities,
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我們該如何著手
15:31
scaling this so we build many more?
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並評估成效,好建造更多這樣的城市呢?
15:33
It would help to have a manual.
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要是有本(傻瓜也能建城市)說明書就好了
15:35
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
15:39
What university professors could do
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大學教授們會做的
15:41
is write some details that might go into this manual.
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就是為這本說明書撰寫一些使用細則
15:45
You wouldn't want to let us run the cities,
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所以你不會想讓我們管理這些城市的
15:48
go out and design them.
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更別說設計它們了
15:50
You wouldn't let academics out in the wild. (Laughter)
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你們不會想讓所謂的學者們胡搞瞎搞的(笑聲)
15:53
But, you could set us to work thinking about questions like,
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但是,你們可以讓我們去思考一些問題
15:56
suppose it isn't just Canada
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譬如,假設不只加拿大
15:58
that does the deal with Raul Castro.
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跟卡斯楚之間有這個協定
16:01
Perhaps Brazil comes in as a participant,
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如果巴西也參一腳
16:04
and Spain as well. And perhaps Cuba wants to be
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再加上西班牙,然後也許古巴想成為
16:06
one of the partners in a four-way joint venture.
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四邊合作的一員
16:09
How would we write the treaty to do that?
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那麼我們該如何草擬這個協定呢?
16:11
There is less precedent for that, but that could easily be worked out.
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即便沒有前例可循,要完成也不是太難
16:14
How would we finance this?
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錢從哪裡來?
16:16
Turns out Singapore and Hong Kong
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新加坡跟香港
16:18
are cities that made huge gains
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是二個很會賺錢的城市
16:20
on the value of the land that they owned when they got started.
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他們一開始是靠炒地皮
16:23
You could use the gains on the value of the land
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然後用賺來的錢
16:25
to pay for things like the police, the courts,
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支付如警察、法院等費用
16:28
but the school system and the health care system too,
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以及學校和健保
16:30
which make this a more attractive place to live,
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好吸引更多人來居住
16:33
makes this a place where people have higher incomes --
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並使這個地方的居民能有高所得
16:35
which, incidentally, makes the land more valuable.
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進而使土地更值錢
16:38
So the incentives for the people helping to construct this zone
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因此有好條件,自然吸引人來建設
16:41
and build it, and set up the basic rules,
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發展這塊區域,並建立基礎制度
16:44
go very much in the right direction.
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一切就能步上正軌
16:46
So there are many other details like this.
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其他很多細節也像這樣
16:48
How could we have buildings that are
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譬如我們如何提供
16:50
low cost and affordable for people who work
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低成本的住房給才剛開始工作的人
16:52
in a first job, assembling something like an iPhone,
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例如iPhone的組裝工人?
16:55
but make those buildings energy efficient,
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這些住房還要節能
16:57
and make sure that they are safe, so they don't fall down
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而且安全
16:59
in an earthquake or a hurricane.
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不會因為地震或是颱風而倒下
17:02
Many technical details to be worked out,
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這有很多技術上的細節尚待處理
17:04
but those of us who are already starting to pursue these things
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不過我們這群已經打算追求這些事的人
17:08
can already tell that there is no roadblock,
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早已發現到除了放棄想像
17:10
there's no impediment, other than a failure of imagination,
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沒有其他東西可以阻礙我們
17:13
that will keep us from delivering on
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傳播一個真正的
17:15
a truly global win-win solution.
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全球性的雙贏辦法
17:20
Let me conclude with this picture.
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讓我用這張照片做個總結
17:23
The reason we can be so well off,
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今天我們能夠這麼幸福
17:25
even though there is so many people on earth,
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儘管地球上人口這麼多
17:27
is because of the power of ideas.
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都是因為“想法”的力量
17:30
We can share ideas with other people,
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我們可以跟別人分享想法
17:32
and when they discover them, they share with us.
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當別人有新想法,他們也跟我們分享
17:34
It's not like scarce objects,
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這與稀有物品的概念不同
17:36
where sharing means we each get less.
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一經分享每個人獲得的部份就變少
17:38
When we share ideas we all get more.
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當我們分享的是想法時,所有人都獲益更多
17:41
When we think about ideas in that way,
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而我們提到想法時
17:43
we usually think about technologies.
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通常想到的是科技
17:45
But there is another class of ideas:
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但還有另一類想法
17:47
the rules that govern how we interact with each other;
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指的是主導人與人之間互動的體制
17:50
rules like, let's have a tax system
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例如我們來訂個賦稅制
17:52
that supports a research university
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用以支撐一個研究型大學
17:54
that gives away certain kinds of knowledge for free.
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使這個大學能免費提供某些知識
17:57
Let's have a system where we have ownership of land
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或者一個土地制
17:59
that is registered in a government office,
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讓人民需要的時候
18:01
that people can pledge as collateral.
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可以把土地抵押給政府
18:03
If we can keep innovating on our space of rules,
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如果我們能不斷在制度上創新
18:05
and particularly innovate in the sense
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特別是在開發
18:07
of coming up with rules for changing rules,
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可以“改變制度的制度”時
18:09
so we don't get stuck with bad rules,
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我們就不會卡在不良的制度上
18:12
then we can keep moving progress forward
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而可以不斷進步
18:15
and truly make the world a better place,
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真正使這個世界變得更好
18:17
so that people like Nelson and his friends
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使尼爾森和他的朋友
18:20
don't have to study any longer under the streetlights. Thank you.
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再也不用在路燈下讀書了。謝謝。
18:23
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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