Rachel Botsman: The currency of the new economy is trust

152,421 views ・ 2012-09-24

TED


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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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譯者: Feiyi Kuai 審譯者: James Hung
00:15
So if someone asked you
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如果有人要你
00:17
for the three words that would sum up
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用三個詞來總括你自己的名望
00:20
your reputation, what would you say?
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你會用哪些詞?
00:23
How would people describe your judgment,
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他們會怎樣看你在不同處境下
00:26
your knowledge, your behaviors, in different situations?
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的判斷、知識、和行為?
00:30
Today I'd like to explore with you
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今天,我想與你們一起探索
00:32
why the answer to this question
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為甚麼這問題的答案變得至為重要
00:34
will become profoundly important
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為甚麼這問題的答案變得至為重要
00:36
in an age where reputation will be your most valuable asset.
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在一個信譽是你最有價值資產的年代
00:40
I'd like to start by introducing you to someone
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我想先介紹你們認識一個人
00:43
whose life has been changed by a marketplace
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他的生活因為一個由信譽主導的市場
00:47
fueled by reputation.
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產生了改變
00:49
Sebastian Sandys has been a bed and breakfast host
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賽巴斯汀桑迪斯(Sebastian Sandys)開了一家民宿
00:52
on Airbnb since 2008.
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從2008年開始便通過Airbnb網站經營
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I caught up with him recently, where, over the course
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我最近認識了他
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of several cups of tea, he told me how
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一次跟他喝茶時他告訴我
01:00
hosting guests from all over the world
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藉着招待世界各地來的客人
01:03
has enriched his life.
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如何豐富了他的生活
01:04
More than 50 people have come to stay in the 18th-century
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已有超過50人入住於他跟家貓史奎克(Squeak)共住
01:07
watchhouse he lives in with his cat, Squeak.
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由18世紀哨房所改建的民宿
01:10
Now, I mention Squeak because Sebastian's first guest
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我要提到史奎克(Squeak), 因為他民宿的第一位客人
01:15
happened to see a rather large mouse run across the kitchen,
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發現一隻碩大的老鼠在他的廚房內跑過
01:19
and she promised that she would refrain from leaving
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後來她答應不留下負面評語
01:21
a bad review on one condition: he got a cat.
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但條件是,他要養一隻貓
01:25
And so Sebastian bought Squeak to protect his reputation.
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於是賽巴斯汀桑迪斯(Sebastian Sandys) 為保聲譽買下了史奎克(Squeak)
01:29
Now, as many of you know, Airbnb is a peer-to-peer
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眾所皆知的是Airbnb是一個由客戶互相推介
01:32
marketplace that matches people who have space to rent
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遍及192個國家以上的市場平台
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with people who are looking for a place to stay
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把有地方出租的人
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in over 192 countries.
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與找尋住宿的人撮合起來
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The places being rented out are things that you might
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這些出租的地方跟你期待的民宿一樣
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expect, like spare rooms and holiday homes,
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有多出的房間和給人渡假的旅館
01:47
but part of the magic is the unique places
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但它們奇妙之處在於你現在可以入住
01:50
that you can now access: treehouses, teepees,
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一些獨特的地方:如樹屋、 印第安帳篷
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airplane hangars, igloos.
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飛機庫、雪屋
01:56
If you don't like the hotel, there's a castle down the road
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如果你不想住酒店,往前走便有一座城堡
01:59
that you can rent for 5,000 dollars a night.
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你可以用5000租住一晚
02:02
It's a fantastic example of how technology
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這是一個很好的例子
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is creating a market
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說明科技如何為
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for things that never had a marketplace before.
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從未有市場的東西創造市場平台
02:09
Now let me show you these heat maps of Paris
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現在我想給你們看這些巴黎的熱點地圖
02:13
to see how insanely fast it's growing.
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看看這些市場如何成長性狂飆
02:15
This image here is from 2008.
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這是2008年的影像
02:18
The pink dots represent host properties.
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粉紅色的點代表經營民宿的房子
02:21
Even four years ago, letting strangers stay in your home
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即使四年前,讓陌生人留宿你家
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seemed like a crazy idea.
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會令人覺得難以想像
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Now the same view in 2010.
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這是2010年的同一影像
02:30
And now, 2012.
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這幅是2012年的
02:33
There is an Airbnb host on almost every main street in Paris.
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巴黎每條大街幾乎都有Airbnb的經營者
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Now, what's happening here is people are realizing
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現在人們已開始發現
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the power of technology to unlock the idling capacity
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科技的力量可以釋放閑置的生產力
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and value of all kinds of assets,
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和不同類型資產的價值
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from skills to spaces to material possessions,
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不論是技能、空間或物質資產
02:53
in ways and on a scale never possible before.
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都能以前所未有的方式和規模釋放出來
02:57
It's an economy and culture called collaborative consumption,
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這是一種名之為協同消費的經濟和文化
03:00
and, through it, people like Sebastian
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透過它,像賽巴斯汀(Sebastian)這樣的人
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are becoming micro-entrepreneurs.
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都成為微型創業者
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They're empowered to make money and save money
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他們的固有的資產
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from their existing assets.
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可以被強化用於賺錢和儲錢之途
03:10
But the real magic and the secret source behind
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但在如Airbnb這些平台的協同消費
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collaborative consumption marketplaces like Airbnb
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其背後的真正魔力和秘密源頭
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isn't the inventory or the money.
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不是那些存貨或金錢
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It's using the power of technology to build trust
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而是利用科技的力量
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between strangers.
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令陌生人互相信任
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This side of Airbnb really hit home to Sebastian last summer
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賽巴斯汀(Sebastian)在去年夏天倫敦發生暴亂期間
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during the London riots.
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才真正理解Airbnb這方面的作用
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He woke up around 9, and he checked his email
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他一天早上九時醒來查看電郵
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and he saw a bunch of messages all asking him
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他看到一連串電郵
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if he was okay.
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全都問他是否安好
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Former guests from around the world had seen that
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世界各地的前度客人
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the riots were happening just down the street, and wanted
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看到暴亂就在他那條街上發生
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to check if he needed anything.
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都發電郵問他是否有甚麼需要
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Sebastian actually said to me, he said, "Thirteen former guests
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賽巴斯汀(Sebastian)向我訴說「共有13位前度客人
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contacted me before my own mother rang." (Laughter)
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在媽媽打來之前就已聯絡了他」
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Now, this little anecdote gets to the heart of why
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這件事說中了為甚麼
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I'm really passionate about collaborative consumption,
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我那麼熱衷於協同消費
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and why, after I finished my book, I decided
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和為甚麼我寫完我那本書後
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I'm going to try and spread this into a global movement.
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決定把這模式推廣為全球運動
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Because at its core, it's about empowerment.
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因為它的核心就在於賦權
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It's about empowering people to make meaningful connections,
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它促使人們創造有意義的結連
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connections that are enabling us to rediscover
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這些結連讓我們去重新發現
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a humanness that we've lost somewhere along the way,
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我們已失落的人性
04:17
by engaging in marketplaces like Airbnb, like Kickstarter,
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讓人參予Airbnb、Kickstarter、Etsy等市場空間
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like Etsy, that are built on personal relationships
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這些空間所建基的是人與人的關係
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versus empty transactions.
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而不是空洞的交易
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Now the irony is that these ideas are actually taking us back
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弔詭的是這些想法的確把我們帶回
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to old market principles and collaborative behaviors
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在我們裏面根深蒂固的古舊市場原則
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that are hard-wired in all of us.
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和協作行為
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They're just being reinvented in ways that are relevant
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它們只不過是在臉書世代
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for the Facebook age.
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以適切的模式給再發明出來
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We're literally beginning to realize that we have wired
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我們的確才開始了解我們已把世界連結起來
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our world to share, swap, rent, barter or trade
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可以分享、交換、租賃或交易任何東西
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just about anything. We're sharing our cars on WhipCar,
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我們在WhipCar上共用車子
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our bikes on Spinlister, our offices on Loosecubes,
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在Spinlister上分享單車、Loosecubes上共用辦公室
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our gardens on Landshare. We're lending and borrowing
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Landshare上分享園圃、在Zopah和Lending Club上
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money from strangers on Zopa and Lending Club.
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向和給陌生人借錢
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We are trading lessons on everything from sushi-making
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我們可以在Skillshare交換任何課堂
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to coding on Skillshare,
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從做壽司到如何做程式編碼
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and we're even sharing our pets on DogVacay.
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我們甚至在DogVacay與人共享寵物
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Now welcome to the wonderful world of collaborative consumption
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歡迎大家來到協同消費這個奇妙世界
05:13
that's enabling us to match wants with haves
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它以更民主的方式
05:17
in more democratic ways.
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撮合不同人的需求和供給
05:19
Now, collaborative consumption is creating the start
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協同消費引發了一次改革
05:22
of a transformation in the way we think about supply and demand,
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改變我們對供需面的想法
05:26
but it's also a part of a massive value shift underway,
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它也是進行中的巨大價值轉移的一部份
05:30
where instead of consuming to keep up with the Joneses,
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人們不再為追上潮流而消費
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people are consuming to get to know the Joneses.
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他們要消費才知道甚麼是潮流
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But the key reason why it's taking off now so fast
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這轉變發生得這麼快的主要原因
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is because every new advancement of technology
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是因為每項新科技的出現
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increases the efficiency and the social glue of trust
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都加強了信任的效率和信任對社會的凝聚
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to make sharing easier and easier.
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使得互相分享變得越加容易
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Now, I've looked at thousands of these marketplaces,
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我已研究過數以千計這些市場
05:54
and trust and efficiency are always the critical ingredients.
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發現信任和效率是不可或缺的因素
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Let me give you an example.
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讓我給大家一個例子
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Meet 46-year-old Chris Mok, who has, I bet,
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這位是46歲的克力斯莫克(Chris Mok)
06:05
the best job title here of SuperRabbit.
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我猜,現在他的職銜「超級兔」 是全派遣兔公司(Taskrabbit)最好的
06:09
Now, four years ago, Chris lost his job, unfortunately,
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四年前克力斯(Chris)不幸地失業了
06:13
as an art buyer at Macy's, and like so many people,
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他是美詩百貨(Macy's)的藝術品採購,像許多人一樣
06:17
he struggled to find a new one during the recession.
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他努力地要在不景氣期間找新工作
06:19
And then he happened to stumble across a post about
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他碰巧遇到一份
06:23
TaskRabbit.
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在派遣兔(Taskrabbit)公司的工作
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Now, the story behind TaskRabbit starts like so many
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這間派遣兔公司(Taskrabbit)背後的故事 跟很多其他故事一樣
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great stories with a very cute dog by the name of Kobe.
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由一隻名叫高比(Kobe)的可愛小狗開始
06:32
Now what happened was, in February 2008,
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故事發生於2008年二月
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Leah and her husband were waiting for a cab to take them
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莉亞和她丈夫在等計程車接他們外出晚餐時
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out for dinner, when Kobe came trotting up to them
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高比蹓躂到他們面前
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and he was salivating with saliva.
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嘴角流着口水
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They realized they'd run out of dog food.
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他們發現家中狗糧已吃光了
06:46
Kevin had to cancel the cab and trudge out in the snow.
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於是凱文取消了計程車冒着大雪蹣跚地走出去
06:49
Now, later that evening, the two self-confessed tech geeks
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那天晚上,這兩個自嘲為科技怪咖的人
06:53
starting talking about how cool it would be if some kind of
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談到如果eBay可以提供一些跑腿服務那有多好
06:56
eBay for errands existed.
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談到如果eBay可以提供一些跑腿服務那有多好
06:59
Six months later, Leah quit her job,
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六個月後,莉亞辭掉了工作
07:01
and TaskRabbit was born.
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接着派遣兔(Taskrabbit)誕生了
07:04
At the time, she didn't realize that she was actually hitting
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那時她還沒有意識到她無意中
07:08
on a bigger idea she later called service networking.
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巧巧遇上一個她後來稱之為「服務網絡」的大生意
07:12
It's essentially about how we use our online relationships
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這生意的要訣在於如何運用我們的線上關係
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to get things done in the real world.
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在現實世界中完成一些工作
07:19
Now the way TaskRabbit works is, people outsource
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現時派遣兔(Taskrabbit)的運作模式
07:22
the tasks that they want doing, name the price
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是有人想外包他們想要做的工作
07:24
they're willing to pay, and then vetted Rabbits
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說出他們願付的價錢
07:27
bid to run the errand.
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然後交由兔群們替他們服務
07:28
Yes, there's actually a four-stage, rigorous interview process
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那些兔子要經過一個四階段的嚴謹面試
07:33
that's designed to find the people that would make
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目的是找出那些出色的個人助理
07:35
great personal assistants and weed out the dodgy Rabbits.
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和除掉那些只會躲賴的人
07:38
Now, there's over 4,000 Rabbits across the United States
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現時全美國有超過4000名兔子
07:43
and 5,000 more on the waiting list.
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超過5000人在後備名單上
07:46
Now the tasks being posted are things that you might
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那些張貼出來的都是些意料之中的工作
07:49
expect, like help with household chores
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像幫助家務
07:52
or doing some supermarket runs.
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或到超市購物跑腿
07:55
I actually learned the other day that 12 and a half thousand
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我後來發現原來有一萬二千五百籃子的衣服
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loads of laundry have been cleaned and folded
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是經由工作兔送往
08:01
through TaskRabbit.
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清洗與摺疊
08:02
But I love that the number one task posted,
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但我喜愛那最多人張貼的工作
08:06
over a hundred times a day, is something that many of us
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每天超過100人張貼它
08:09
have felt the pain of doing:
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是不少人都感到痛苦的工作
08:12
yes, assembling Ikea furniture. (Laughter) (Applause)
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是的,就是組合宜家宜居(IKEA)的傢俱
08:18
It's brilliant. Now, we may laugh, but Chris here
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真的棒極了。我們也許會笑,但克力斯(Chris)
08:22
is actually making up to 5,000 dollars a month
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每月所賺的5000元
08:25
running errands around his life.
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就是靠替人服務而得的
08:28
And 70 percent of this new labor force
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這勞動力中有百分之七十的人
08:31
were previously unemployed or underemployed.
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之前都是失業或就業不足的人
08:35
I think TaskRabbit and other examples of collaborative consumption
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我覺得工作兔和其他協同消費的例子
08:38
are like lemonade stands on steroids. They're just brilliant.
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就像以檸檬汁對付類固醇那樣。真是棒極了。
08:41
Now, when you think about it, it's amazing, right,
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大家想想看,這真的很奇妙,對吧
08:45
that over the past 20 years, we've evolved
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對去二十年來
08:49
from trusting people online to share information
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我們從信任線上的人到互相分享資訊
08:52
to trusting to handing over our credit card information,
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演化至交出我們信用卡的資料
08:55
and now we're entering the third trust wave:
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現在我們進入了信任的第三波
08:58
connecting trustworthy strangers to create all kinds
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把值得信任的陌生人連繫起來
09:02
of people-powered marketplaces.
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去創造出各種各樣以人為動力的市場空間
09:05
I actually came across this fascinating study
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我這個星期才在皮優研究中心(Pew Center)
09:06
by the Pew Center this week that revealed
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發現這份令人着迷的報告
09:09
that an active Facebook user is three times as likely
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就是活躍的臉書使用者較非網際網路使用者
09:12
as a non-Internet user to believe that most people are trustworthy.
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三倍於認為大部份是都是可靠的
09:17
Virtual trust will transform the way we trust one another
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虛擬的信任會變了我們要面對面
09:22
face to face.
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才互相信任的態度
09:23
Now, with all of my optimism, and I am an optimist,
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隨着我的樂觀態度,而我是樂觀主義者
09:26
comes a healthy dose of caution, or rather, an urgent need
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出現了一定程度健康的審慎
09:30
to address some pressing, complex questions.
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可以說出現了解決一些緊急、複雜問題的迫切需要
09:35
How to ensure our digital identities reflect our
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如何確保我們的數位身份真的是
09:37
real world identities? Do we want them to be the same?
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我們在真實世界的身份?我們希望兩者一樣嗎?
09:41
How do we mimic the way trust is built face-to-face online?
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我們如何在線上摹擬面對面建立的信任?
09:44
How do we stop people who've behaved badly
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如何防止一些在某個羣體做了壞事的人
09:46
in one community doing so under a different guise?
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以假名去做同樣的事?
09:50
In a similar way that companies often use some kind of
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一些公司常用某些信賴評價方法
09:53
credit rating to decide whether to give you a mobile plan,
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去決定是否為你提供無線電話服務計劃
09:56
or the rate of a mortgage, marketplaces that depend
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或決定你的抵押貸款利率
09:59
on transactions between relative strangers
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以陌生人之間交易為主的市場
10:02
need some kind of device to let you know that Sebastian
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也需要一些方法讓你知道
10:05
and Chris are good eggs,
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賽巴斯汀(Sebastian)或克力斯(Chris)是否是好咖
10:07
and that device is reputation.
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而那個方法的聲譽
10:10
Reputation is the measurement of how much a community trusts you.
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信譽代表了一個社群對你的信任度
10:15
Let's just take a look at Chris.
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讓我們看看莫先生的例子
10:17
You can see that over 200 people have given him
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你看到若以5分為滿分 超過200人給了他
10:20
an average rating over 4.99 out of 5.
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平均4.99的分數
10:23
There are over 20 pages of reviews of his work
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超過20頁有關他工作的評價
10:26
describing him as super-friendly and fast,
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說他超級友善和快速
10:28
and he's reached level 25, the highest level,
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他更達到最高級的第25級
10:32
making him a SuperRabbit.
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使他榮膺超級兔
10:34
Now — (Laughter) -- I love that word, SuperRabbit.
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我喜愛這稱呼--超級兔
10:37
And interestingly, what Chris has noted is that as his reputation
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有趣的是,克力斯(Chris)注意到
10:40
has gone up, so has his chances of winning a bid
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隨着他信譽上升,他獲派工作的機會
10:43
and how much he can charge.
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和他可以要求的報酬也上升
10:45
In other words, for SuperRabbits, reputation
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換言之,對超級兔來說
10:48
has a real world value.
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信譽在真實世界有其價值
10:50
Now, I know what you might be thinking.
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我知道你或許在想
10:52
Well, this isn't anything new. Just think of power sellers
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這不是甚麼真事物。想想那些eBay上的超級售貨員
10:55
on eBay or star ratings on Amazon.
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或亞瑪遜上的星星評級
10:58
The difference today is that, with every trade we make,
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今天不同之處,在於我們做的每單買賣
11:02
comment we leave, person we flag, badge we earn,
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寫的每個意見,標籤的每個人,贏的每個奬章
11:05
we leave a reputation trail
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都會留下信譽足跡
11:07
of how well we can and can't be trusted.
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讓人知道我們值不值得信任
11:10
And it's not just the breadth but the volume
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驚人的不單是這些信譽資訊的廣度
11:13
of reputation data out there that is staggering.
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而是它們的數量
11:16
Just consider this: Five million nights have been booked
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試想想:單在過去六個月
11:19
on Airbnb in the past six months alone.
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在Airbnb已有人預約了五百萬個夜晚
11:22
30 million rides have been shared on Carpooling.com.
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在Carpooling.com有人分享了三千萬次車程
11:26
This year, two billion dollars worth of loans
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今年,值二百億元的貸款
11:29
will go through peer-to-peer lending platforms.
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便是透過客戶與客戶之間的借貸平台借出
11:31
This adds up to millions of pieces of reputation data
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這一切加起來便有數以百萬
11:35
on how well we behave or misbehave.
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有關我們是否可信的信貸資料
11:39
Now, capturing and correlating the trails of information
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獲取和勾稽我們在不同地方
11:42
that we leave in different places is a massive challenge,
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留下的資料是艱巨的挑戰
11:46
but one we're being asked to figure out.
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但它也是我們被要求處理的工作
11:48
What the likes of Sebastian are starting to rightfully ask
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像賽巴斯汀(Sebastion)那樣的人 開始理直氣壯地問
11:52
is, shouldn't they own their reputation data?
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他們的聲譽資料豈不應由他們擁有嗎?
11:54
Shouldn't the reputation that he's personally invested
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他個人投放在Airbnb的努力而建立的聲譽
11:57
on building on Airbnb mean that it should travel with him
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豈不應隨着他
12:01
from one community to another?
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從一個社群走到另一個嗎?
12:03
What I mean by this is, say he started selling second-hand
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我的意思是,假如他開始在亞瑪遜售賣二手書
12:06
books on Amazon. Why should he have to start from scratch?
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為甚麼他要從頭開始建立聲譽?
12:09
It's a bit like when I moved from New York to Sydney.
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這有點像我從紐約搬到雪梨
12:13
It was ridiculous. I couldn't get a mobile phone plan
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這真是荒謬。我不能取得手提電話服務
12:16
because my credit history didn't travel with me.
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因為我的信貸歷史沒有隨我來到雪梨
12:20
I was essentially a ghost in the system.
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我基本上是制度裏的一個幽靈
12:23
Now I'm not suggesting that the next stage
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我不是要提出信譽經濟的下一階段
12:26
of the reputation economy is about
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是要把不同的評級
12:28
adding up multiple ratings into some kind of empty score.
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加起來成為一些空洞白的評分
12:32
People's lives are too complex, and who wants to do that?
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人的生活太過複雜了,誰人會想這樣做?
12:36
I also want to be clear that this isn't about adding up
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我也想說清楚,這不是簡單地把
12:38
tweets and likes and friends in a Klout-like fashion.
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社交網站上的讚好或朋友數目加起來
12:42
Those guys are measuring influence, not behaviors
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這量度的是影響力
12:45
that indicate our trustworthiness.
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不是反映我們可靠度的行為
12:47
But the most important thing that we have to keep in mind
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但最重要的是我們要記著
12:50
is that reputation is largely contextual.
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信譽是可以被言語化
12:54
Just because Sebastian is a wonderful host
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賽巴斯汀(Sebastion)是一位好的民宿老闆
12:57
does not mean that he can assemble Ikea furniture.
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不代表他懂得組合宜家宜居(IKEA)的傢俱
13:01
The big challenge is figuring out what data
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我們面對的重大挑戰
13:04
makes sense to pull, because the future's
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在於找出有用的資訊
13:07
going to be driven by a smart aggregation of reputation,
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因為未來將被巧妙聚集的信譽而推動
13:11
not a single algorithm.
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而不是一個簡單的演算方法
13:13
It's only a matter of time before we'll be able to perform
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我們不但需要時間
13:17
a Facebook- or Google-like search
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才能進行臉書或類似Google那樣的搜尋引擎
13:20
and see a complete picture of someone's behaviors
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讓我們能夠湊合出一個人
13:22
in different contexts over time.
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在不同時間和場境下的完整行為模式
13:25
I envision a realtime stream of who has trusted you,
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我預見我們要有實時的串流,去查看誰人
13:29
when, where and why, your reliability on TaskRabbit,
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甚麼時候、在那裏和為甚麼信任你 你在派遣免(Taskrabbit)的可靠度
13:33
your cleanliness as a guest on Airbnb,
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你在Airbnb作為客人的整潔度
13:35
the knowledge that you display on Quora or Tripovo,
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你在Quora(類似知識+論壇網站)展現的知識
13:39
they'll all live together in one place,
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這些資訊都要聚集在一處
13:41
and this will live in some kind of reputation dashboard
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成為某種關於你的信譽指標版
13:45
that will paint a picture of your reputation capital.
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它會繪畫出你的信譽資產
13:49
Now this is a concept that I'm currently researching
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這是我現正研究的一個概念
13:52
and writing my next book on, and currently define
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我下一本書也以此為主題
13:55
as the worth of your reputation, your intentions,
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現時這概念可定義為你在不同社羣和市場
13:58
capabilities and values across communities and marketplaces.
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信譽、動機、能力的價值
14:03
This isn't some far-off frontier.
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這不是一些偏遠的領域
14:06
There are actually a wave of startups like Connect.Me
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一些網站如Connect.me、Legit和TrustCloud
14:09
and Legit and TrustCloud that are figuring out how
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正啓動一連串計劃,試圖找出
14:12
you can aggregate, monitor and use your online reputation.
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如何集合、監控和運用你在網上的信譽
14:17
Now, I realize that this concept may sound a little
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我明白這會令你們部份人感到像被監視
14:21
Big Brother to some of you, and yes, there are some
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是的,我們有很多
14:24
enormous transparency and privacy issues to solve,
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關乎網路透明度和隱私的問題有待解決
14:28
but ultimately, if we can collect our personal reputation,
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但最終來說,我們可以收集自己的信譽
14:32
we can actually control it more, and extract
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可以實質上更有效控制它
14:35
the immense value that will flow from it.
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和抽取其中巨大的價值
14:37
Also, more so than our credit history,
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另一方面,較諸我們的信任度歷史
14:40
we can actually shape our reputation.
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我們更可以塑造我們的信譽
14:43
Just think of Sebastian
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只要想想賽巴斯汀(Sebastion)
14:44
and how he bought the cat to influence his.
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他如何透過買下那隻貓來影響他的信譽
14:47
Now privacy issues aside, the other really interesting issue
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除了私隱問題外,另一個我正在研究的
14:51
I'm looking at is how do we empower digital ghosts,
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真正有趣問題是我們如何強化這些數位幽靈
14:54
people [who] for whatever reason, are not active online,
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就是那些無論為了甚麼原因在線上不活躍
14:58
but are some of the most trustworthy people in the world?
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但在現實世界又極其值得信賴的人?
15:00
How do we take their contributions to their jobs,
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我們如何將他們對工作、
15:04
their communities and their families,
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社區和家庭的貢獻
15:06
and convert that value into reputation capital?
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轉化為聲譽資產的價值?
15:10
Ultimately, when we get it right, reputation capital
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最終來說,若我們走對了方向
15:13
could create a massive positive disruption
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信譽資產會對誰擁有權力、得人信任、和有影響力
15:16
in who has power, trust and influence.
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產生巨大而正面的衝擊
15:20
A three-digit score, your traditional credit history,
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一個代表你傳統信任度歷史的三位數字
15:24
that only 30 percent of us actually know what it is,
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我們之中只有百份之三十的人知道它的意義
15:26
will no longer be the determining factor
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它不再成為我們要付出多少成本、我們可以得到甚麼
15:29
in how much things cost, what we can access,
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的決定性因素
15:33
and, in many instances, limit what we can do in the world.
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在許多情況下,也不再成為我們可以做甚麼的限制
15:36
Indeed, reputation is a currency that I believe will become
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事實上,我認為信譽會在二十一世紀成為
15:40
more powerful than our credit history in the 21st century.
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較我們的信任度歷史更強勢的貨幣
15:45
Reputation will be the currency that says
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信譽會成為一種貨幣
15:48
that you can trust me.
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它告訴人你可以信任我
15:50
Now the interesting thing is, reputation
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有趣的是
15:53
is the socioeconomic lubricant
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目前信譽是個社會經濟的潤滑劑
15:55
that makes collaborative consumption work and scale,
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令協同消費得以運作並可以衡量
16:00
but the sources it will be generated from,
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但它的產生的源頭和應用模式
16:02
and its applications, are far bigger than this space alone.
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遠超出這個層面
16:07
Let me give you one example from the world of recruiting,
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大家可以以招募人才為例
16:09
where reputation data will make the résumé seem
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信譽的資料將會令個人履歷
16:13
like an archaic relic of the past.
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成為過時的遺跡
16:18
Four years ago, tech bloggers and entrepreneurs
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四年前,科技的部落客和企業家們
16:22
Joel Spolsky and Jeff Atwood, decided to start something
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喬爾斯波斯基(Joel Spolsky)和 傑夫艾特伍(Jeff Atwood)決意要開展
16:27
called Stack Overflow.
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一項名為積智滿溢的計劃
16:29
Now, Stack Overflow is basically a platform where
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現在堆積智滿溢基本上是一個平台
16:33
experienced programmers can ask
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讓有經驗的程式員向其他優秀的程式員
16:35
other good programmers highly detailed technical questions
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在如細小像素和谷哥瀏覽器擴充功能等事項上
16:40
on things like tiny pixels and chrome extensions.
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提出極其技術性的仔細問題
16:44
This site receives five and a half thousand questions a day,
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這個網站每天收到5500條問題
16:48
and 80 percent of these receive accurate answers.
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其中百份之八十都可獲得正確的答案
16:51
Now users earn reputation in a whole range of ways,
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現在使用者可以以不同方式贏取信譽
16:54
but it's basically by convincing their peers
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但基本上都是透過令同儕信服
16:57
they know what they're talking about.
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這些人真的是內行人
16:59
Now a few months after this site launched, the founders
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這個網站運行數月後
17:02
heard about something interesting,
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建立這網站的人聽到一些有趣的東西
17:04
and it actually didn't surprise them.
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這些東西令他們感到意外
17:06
What they heard was that users were putting
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他們聽到有些用戶把他們的信譽評分
17:10
their reputation scores on the top of their résumés,
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放在他們的履歷之上
17:13
and that recruiters were searching the platform
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而負責招募的人則在這網站上
17:16
to find people with unique talents.
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尋找那些有特殊才幹的人
17:18
Now thousands of programmers today are finding
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現時有數以千計的程式員
17:21
better jobs this way, because Stack Overflow
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以這方法覓得更好的工作
17:25
and the reputation dashboards provide a priceless window
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因為積智滿溢和信譽儀表板開了一個無價的窗口
17:28
into how someone really behaves,
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讓人可以從中窺探一些人的真正行為
17:30
and what their peers think of them.
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和他們的同儕對這些人的評價
17:33
But the bigger principle of what's happening behind Stack Overflow,
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然而積智滿溢背後有一個更大原則
17:35
I think, is incredibly exciting.
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在我看來是非常令人興奮的
17:38
People are starting to realize that the reputation
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人們可以發現他們在一個地方所累積的信譽
17:41
they generate in one place has value
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在其他地方
17:44
beyond the environments from which it was built.
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同樣是有價值的
17:47
You know, it's very interesting.
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你知嗎,這真有意思
17:49
When you talk to super-users, whether that's SuperRabbits
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你與一些超級用戶談話時
17:52
or super-people on Stack Overflow, or Uberhosts,
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不論他們屬於超級免、積智滿溢或Uberhost網站
17:57
they all talk about how having a high reputation
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他們都會告訴你好的信譽
18:00
unlocks a sense of their own power.
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讓他們感受到自己的能力
18:03
On Stack Overflow, it creates a level playing field,
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在堆叠溢流,信譽形成一個公平的競技場
18:06
enabling the people with the real talent to rise to the top.
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讓有真材實料的人出人頭地
18:09
On Airbnb, the people often become more important
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在Airbnb,人往往較空置的的地方重要
18:12
than the spaces. On TaskRabbit,
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在派遣免(Taskrabbit),它給人權力
18:15
it gives people control of their economic activity.
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去控制自己的經濟活動
18:18
Now at the end of my tea with Sebastian, he told me how,
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我與賽巴斯汀(Sebastion)茶聚結束時
18:21
on a bad, rainy day, when he hasn't had a customer
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他告訴我在雨天時 他的書室一個客人也沒有
18:25
in his bookstore, he thinks of all the people around
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他會想起那些在世界各地
18:28
the world who've said something wonderful about him,
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曾讚賞過他的人
18:31
and what that says about him as a person.
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和他們覺得他是怎樣的人
18:34
He's turning 50 this year, and he's convinced
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他今年將屆50歲
18:37
that the rich tapestry of reputation he's built on Airbnb
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他確信他在Airbnb所建立的信譽
18:41
will lead him to doing something interesting
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會終其一生
18:43
with the rest of his life.
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引領他做有意義的事情
18:46
You know, there are only a few windows in history
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你知嗎,歷史上只有少數窗口
18:50
where the opportunity exists to reinvent
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可以給我們機會去重新發現
18:53
part of how our socioeconomic system works.
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我們的社會經濟制度是如何運作的
18:56
We're living through one of those moments.
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我們正經歷其中一個這樣的時刻
18:59
I believe that we are at the start of a collaborative revolution
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我相信我們位於一個協同革命的起點
19:03
that will be as significant as the Industrial Revolution.
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這革命像工業革命那樣意義重大
19:06
In the 20th century, the invention of traditional credit
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在20世紀,隨着發明了傳統的信任資訊
19:10
transformed our consumer system, and in many ways
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因而改變了我們的消費制度
19:13
controlled who had access to what.
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它也在很多方面決定誰可得到甚麼
19:16
In the 21st century, new trust networks,
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在21世紀,出現了新的信任網絡
19:19
and the reputation capital they generate, will reinvent
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它們產生的信譽資產
19:22
the way we think about wealth, markets, power
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會重新界定我們對財富、市場、能力
19:27
and personal identity, in ways we can't yet even imagine.
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和個人身份的看法,是我們還沒法想像的
19:31
Thank you very much. (Applause)
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多謝大家
19:34
(Applause)
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(鼓掌喝采)
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