請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。
譯者: Allen Kuo
審譯者: Mingjie Jiang
00:12
What I'd like to do
is talk to you a little bit about fear
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今天我要做的是
和各位稍微談談恐懼這件事,
00:16
and the cost of fear
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以及恐懼的代價,
00:18
and the age of fear
from which we are now emerging.
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還有正在浮現的恐懼時代。
00:22
I would like you to feel comfortable
with my doing that
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如果我告訴你們我對恐懼
和焦慮有所瞭解的話。
00:26
by letting you know that I know something
about fear and anxiety.
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希望這可以讓你們感到舒服些
00:31
I'm a Jewish guy from New Jersey.
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我是個來自紐澤西的猶太人。
00:33
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:35
I could worry before I could walk.
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在我學會走路之前就學會憂慮了。
00:37
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:39
Please, applaud that.
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請為此給點掌聲。
00:41
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
00:44
Thank you.
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謝謝。
00:46
But I also grew up in a time
where there was something to fear.
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但是我的確在一個令人憂慮的時代長大。
00:52
We were brought out in the hall
when I was a little kid
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在我還是個小孩時,
我們就被帶到門廊,
00:56
and taught how to put
our coats over our heads
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大人教導我們如何把外套套在頭上,
00:59
to protect us from global
thermonuclear war.
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以保護自己在全球熱核
戰爭中免受侵害。
01:03
Now even my seven-year-old brain
knew that wasn't going to work.
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現在想想,即使我七歲的腦袋,
都知道那沒用。
01:09
But I also knew
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但我同時也知道,
01:10
that global thermonuclear war
was something to be concerned with.
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全球熱核戰爭確實是需要擔憂的事情。
01:15
And yet, despite the fact
that we lived for 50 years
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但是,儘管我們有50年的時間
01:19
with the threat of such a war,
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都活在這個戰爭的威脅裡,
01:21
the response of our government
and of our society
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我們的政府和社會對此的回應
01:25
was to do wonderful things.
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卻是做出一些很棒的事。
01:28
We created the space program
in response to that.
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作為回應,我們建立了太空計畫
01:31
We built our highway system
in response to that.
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作為回應,作為回應,
我們我們建造了公路系統
01:34
We created the Internet
in response to that.
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網際網路作為回應,我們創造了網際網路
01:37
So sometimes fear can produce
a constructive response.
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所以恐懼有時能促使
一些建設性的回應。
01:42
But sometimes it can produce
an un-constructive response.
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但有時也會產生無用的的回應。
01:47
On September 11, 2001,
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2001年9月11日,
01:49
19 guys took over four airplanes
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19個人劫持了四架飛機,
01:54
and flew them into a couple of buildings.
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將他們開向幾棟大樓。
01:57
They exacted a horrible toll.
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他們帶來了恐怖的傷亡。
02:00
It is not for us to minimize
what that toll was.
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這傷亡並非我們所能減少的。
02:04
But the response that we had
was clearly disproportionate --
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但我們的回應卻很明顯地
與此不成比例 --
02:11
disproportionate to the point
of verging on the unhinged.
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不成比例到幾乎要精神分裂。
02:16
We rearranged the national security
apparatus of the United States
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我們重整美國國家安全的機關
02:20
and of many governments
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和許多相關的政府單位
02:22
to address a threat that,
at the time that those attacks took place,
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來對付像當時這樣的恐怖攻擊,
02:27
was quite limited.
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這樣有限的威脅。
02:28
In fact, according to our
intelligence services,
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事實上,根據我們的情報局,
02:32
on September 11, 2001,
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在2001年9月11日,
02:35
there were 100 members of core Al-Qaeda.
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蓋達組織的核心成員數是100人。
02:39
There were just a few thousand terrorists.
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恐怖分子的人數也只有幾千人。
02:42
They posed an existential threat
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而他們對誰有著持續存在的威脅?
02:45
to no one.
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沒有。
02:47
But we rearranged our entire
national security apparatus
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但我們在二次世界大戰後,
就用最全面徹底的方式
02:52
in the most sweeping way
since the end of the Second World War.
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重整我們整個國家安全機關。
02:56
We launched two wars.
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我們發動了兩個戰爭。
02:58
We spent trillions of dollars.
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我們花了好幾兆美金。
03:00
We suspended our values.
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我們擱置了自己的價值觀。
03:02
We violated international law.
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我們違反了國際法。
03:04
We embraced torture.
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我們信奉酷刑這套。
03:06
We embraced the idea
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我們接受這個想法:
03:07
that if these 19 guys could do this,
anybody could do it.
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如果有19個人做這種事,
全世界的人都有可能做這種事。
03:11
And therefore,
for the first time in history,
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也因為這樣,歷史上頭一遭,
03:14
we were seeing everybody as a threat.
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我們把每個人都視為威脅。
03:17
And what was the result of that?
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這麼做的結果是什麼?
03:19
Surveillance programs that listened in
on the emails and phone calls
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監控程式不斷監聽電子郵件和電話,
03:23
of entire countries --
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針對全世界所有國家 --
03:25
hundreds of millions of people --
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好幾億人口 --
03:27
setting aside whether
those countries were our allies,
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不顧那些國家是否是我們的同盟國,
03:30
setting aside what our interests were.
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不顧國家利益在哪裡。
03:34
I would argue that 15 years later,
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我認為在未來的15年,
03:38
since today there are more terrorists,
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從今天開始世上會有更多恐怖份子,
03:40
more terrorist attacks,
more terrorist casualties --
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更多恐怖攻擊行動、更多不幸傷亡
03:44
this by the count
of the U.S. State Department --
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--來自美國國務院的統計--
03:47
since today the region
from which those attacks emanate
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今天之後恐怖攻擊發送的區域
03:50
is more unstable
than at any time in its history,
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會比歷史上任何時刻更不規則,
03:54
since the Flood, perhaps,
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恐怕在這波恐怖浪潮之後,
03:57
we have not succeeded in our response.
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我們還沒有成功做出過回應。
04:02
Now you have to ask,
where did we go wrong?
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現在你們得問,我們哪裡做錯了?
04:04
What did we do?
What was the mistake that was made?
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我們做了什麼? 犯了什麼錯?
04:06
And you might say, well look,
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
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然後你可能會說,看吧,
華府就是個功能失調的地方。
04:10
There are political food fights.
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存在許多政治鬥爭。
04:12
We've turned our discourse
into a cage match.
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我們把許多對談變成鐵籠格鬥。
04:16
And that's true.
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這是事實。
04:18
But there are bigger problems,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
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但不管你信不信,
還有比這種功失調更大的問題,
04:21
even though I would argue
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儘管我主張
04:23
that dysfunction that makes it impossible
to get anything done
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這種讓世上最富裕、最強盛國家
04:28
in the richest and most powerful
country in the world
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無法完成任何事情的功能失調,
04:31
is far more dangerous than anything
that a group like ISIS could do,
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遠比任何像ISIS這樣的組織
所做的事更加危險,
04:37
because it stops us in our tracks
and it keeps us from progress.
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因為這讓我們脫離軌道、無法進步。
04:42
But there are other problems.
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但還有其他問題。
04:44
And the other problems
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而這些問題
04:45
came from the fact that in Washington
and in many capitals right now,
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來自華府與許多重要城市,
04:48
we're in a creativity crisis.
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現在面臨的創意危機。
04:51
In Washington, in think tanks,
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在華府的智囊團裡,
04:53
where people are supposed to be
thinking of new ideas,
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原本人們應該不斷想出新主意,
04:56
you don't get bold new ideas,
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但現在你不會看到任何大膽的新主意,
04:59
because if you offer up a bold new idea,
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因為每當你提出大膽的新主意,
05:01
not only are you attacked on Twitter,
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不只會在推特上遭到抨擊,
05:03
but you will not get confirmed
in a government job.
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還可能無法繼續在政府體系工作。
05:07
Because we are reactive to the heightened
venom of the political debate,
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因為我們需要顧慮政治鬥爭的遺毒,
05:12
you get governments that have
an us-versus-them mentality,
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我們的政府都有選邊站的心態,
05:15
tiny groups of people making decisions.
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都是小團體在進行決策。
05:17
When you sit in a room with a small group
of people making decisions,
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當你坐在一個房間裡,
少數一群人做決策,
05:21
what do you get?
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你會得到什麼?
05:22
You get groupthink.
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你得到集體思維。
05:24
Everybody has the same worldview,
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每個人有著一樣的世界觀,
05:25
and any view from outside of the group
is seen as a threat.
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而任何群體外的人的觀點都被視為威脅。
05:29
That's a danger.
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這是很危險的。
05:31
You also have processes
that become reactive to news cycles.
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你也正在經歷被
新聞連播牽著走的過程。
05:35
And so the parts of the U.S. government
that do foresight, that look forward,
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所以當部分美國政府
在長遠規畫、在向前看、
05:39
that do strategy --
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在做策略時--
05:41
the parts in other governments
that do this -- can't do it,
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其他政府都可以做的事情--
將無從施展,
05:43
because they're reacting
to the news cycle.
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因為他們需要顧慮媒體言論。
05:46
And so we're not looking ahead.
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所以我們並沒有在向前看。
05:48
On 9/11, we had a crisis
because we were looking the wrong way.
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在911,我們的危機來自
過去沒看到正確方向。
05:52
Today we have a crisis because,
because of 9/11,
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今天我們的危機來自,
因為911的緣故,
05:55
we are still looking
in the wrong direction,
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我們還是沒看到正確的方向,
05:58
and we know because we see
transformational trends on the horizon
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而且我們知道因為我們看見
即將來臨的變革趨勢
06:04
that are far more important
than what we saw on 9/11;
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遠比我們在911中看到的更重要;
06:09
far more important than the threat
posed by these terrorists;
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遠比任何恐怖份子的威脅更重要;
06:13
far more important even
than the instability that we've got
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甚至遠比任何動盪--
06:16
in some areas of the world
that are racked by instability today.
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正在世界上某些地方遭受的動盪重要。
06:21
In fact, the things that we are seeing
in those parts of the world
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事實上,這部分我們所見的世事
06:25
may be symptoms.
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可能只是一些症狀而已。
06:28
They may be a reaction to bigger trends.
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可能只是反映更龐大的
趨勢的一些症狀。
06:32
And if we are treating the symptom
and ignoring the bigger trend,
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而如果我們只設法治癒這些症狀,
卻忽略更龐大的趨勢,
06:37
then we've got far bigger
problems to deal with.
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就會有遠比現在更大的問題要處理。
06:41
And so what are those trends?
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所以,那些趨勢是什麼?
06:43
Well, to a group like you,
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對於像你們這樣的群眾來說,
06:45
the trends are apparent.
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這些趨勢很明顯。
06:48
We are living at a moment
in which the very fabric of human society
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我們活在一個人類社會的結構
06:53
is being rewoven.
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正在被重新編織的時刻
06:57
If you saw the cover of The Economist
a couple of days ago --
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如果你有看到前幾天
《經濟學人》的封面,
07:00
it said that 80 percent
of the people on the planet,
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上面說地球上將有高達80%的人口
07:03
by the year 2020, would have a smartphone.
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在2020年時擁有智慧型手機。
07:07
They would have a small computer
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
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將會有個連結網路的
小電腦在他們口袋裡
07:11
In most of Africa, the cell phone
penetration rate is 80 percent.
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在非洲大部分地區,
手機的滲透率是80%。
07:17
We passed the point last October
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去年10月開始,
07:20
when there were more
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
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世界上個人行動裝置、SIM卡的數量
07:24
out in the world than there were people.
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已經超過世界人口數了。
07:27
We are within years
of a profound moment in our history,
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我們活在對歷史影響最深遠的時代裡,
07:33
when effectively every single
human being on the planet
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在這個時代裡,世界上每一個人
07:38
is going to be part of a man-made
system for the first time,
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實際上都是一個人造系統的一部份,
有史以來第一次。
07:43
able to touch anyone else --
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我們可以接觸任何人 --
07:45
touch them for good, touch them for ill.
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為好事接觸他們,或為壞事接觸他們。
07:47
And the changes associated with that
are changing the very nature
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隨著這些改變而來的是它正在改變
地球上任何政府與任何生命的
每一個面相的本質,
07:53
of every aspect of governance
and life on the planet
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07:57
in ways that our leaders
ought to be thinking about,
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這是我們的領導人在思考當前威脅時
08:00
when they're thinking about
these immediate threats.
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應該思考的事情。
08:03
On the security side,
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至於安全這方面,
08:05
we've come out of a Cold War in which
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
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我們已經從冷戰裡出來
-- 因為核戰代價太高,
08:11
and so we didn't,
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所以我們沒這麼做--
08:12
to a period that I call
Cool War, cyber war,
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進入一個我稱為『涼戰』
的時期,也就是網路戰爭,
08:16
where the costs of conflict are actually
so low, that we may never stop.
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因為衝突成本很低,
所以可能永遠不會停止。
08:22
We may enter a period of constant warfare,
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我們可能進入了一個持續交戰的時期,
08:24
and we know this because
we've been in it for several years.
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我們知道這點因為我們曾有多年經驗。
08:29
And yet, we don't have the basic doctrines
to guide us in this regard.
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但這次並沒有任何教條可以指點我們。
08:35
We don't have the basic ideas formulated.
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我們並沒有規劃出任何基本概念。
08:37
If someone attacks us with a cyber attack,
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如果有人對我們發動網路攻擊,
08:39
do have the ability to respond
with a kinetic attack?
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我們是否有能力做出有力的回應?
08:43
We don't know.
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我們不知道。
08:45
If somebody launches a cyber attack,
how do we deter them?
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如果有人發動網路攻擊,
我們如何嚇阻他們?
08:49
When China launched
a series of cyber attacks,
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當中國發動一連串網路攻擊時,
08:51
what did the U.S. government do?
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美國政府做了什麼?
08:53
It said, we're going to indict
a few of these Chinese guys,
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他們只說,我們要對
幾個中國人提出訴訟,
08:57
who are never coming to America.
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而這些人根本沒來過美國。
08:59
They're never going to be anywhere near
a law enforcement officer
159
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他們甚至永遠不會到任何
接近執法人員的地方,
09:03
who's going to take them into custody.
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2005
接近那些有可能拘留他們的人。
09:06
It's a gesture -- it's not a deterrent.
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這只是作勢而已--毫無威攝作用。
09:09
Special forces operators
out there in the field today
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今天前線的特種部隊人員
09:13
discover that small groups
of insurgents with cell phones
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4871
發現少部分的叛亂團體用手機
09:18
have access to satellite imagery
that once only superpowers had.
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就可以取得衛星影像,
這曾經是世界強權才拿得到的東西。
09:23
In fact, if you've got a cell phone,
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事實上,只要你有手機,
09:25
you've got access to power
that a superpower didn't have,
166
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3316
就能取得過去世界強權
無法擁有的力量。
09:29
and would have highly
classified 10 years ago.
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2155
獲得10年前還是高度機密的東西。
09:31
In my cell phone,
I have an app that tells me
168
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2891
在我的手機裡,有個程式可以告訴我
09:34
where every plane in the world is,
and its altitude, and its speed,
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地球上任何一架飛機在哪裡,
還有它的高度、它的速度,
09:38
and what kind of aircraft it is,
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1822
還有它是哪種飛機,
09:40
and where it's going
and where it's landing.
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它的目的地是哪,將在哪裡降落。
09:44
They have apps that allow them to know
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4549
他們擁有手機程式讓他們可以得知
09:49
what their adversary is about to do.
173
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他們的對手即將要做什麼
09:51
They're using these tools in new ways.
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2376
他們正在用新方法運用這些工具。
09:53
When a cafe in Sydney
was taken over by a terrorist,
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4114
當恐怖份子控制雪梨一家咖啡廳時,
09:57
he went in with a rifle...
176
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2293
他拿著一把來福槍...
10:00
and an iPad.
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還有一台iPad。
10:01
And the weapon was the iPad.
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2561
他的武器就是那台iPad。
10:04
Because he captured people,
he terrorized them,
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3299
因為他幫裡面的人
拍攝照片、脅迫他們,
10:08
he pointed the iPad at them,
180
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2705
他拿著iPad指向他們,
10:11
and then he took the video
and he put it on the Internet,
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2672
然後錄影並放到網路上,
10:13
and he took over the world's media.
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2023
攻佔了全世界的媒體。
10:17
But it doesn't just affect
the security side.
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3468
但它不只在安全方面有所影響。
10:22
The relations between great powers --
184
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1829
世界強權之間的關係--
10:23
we thought we were past the bipolar era.
185
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2365
我們認為兩大強權對立
的時期已經結束。
10:27
We thought we were in a unipolar world,
186
627259
1874
我們認為現在世上只有一個強權,
10:29
where all the big issues were resolved.
187
629157
1894
尤其在最大的麻煩都解決了之後。
10:31
Remember? It was the end of history.
188
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1717
記得嗎? 這是那段歷史的終點。
10:34
But we're not.
189
634129
1296
但我們還沒結束。
10:35
We're now seeing that our
basic assumptions about the Internet --
190
635449
4388
我們現在對於網際網路
的基本假設 --
10:39
that it was going to connect us,
weave society together --
191
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4061
它可以連結我們,
將整個社會織在一起 --
10:43
are not necessarily true.
192
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1656
已經不見得是對的了。
10:46
In countries like China,
you have the Great Firewall of China.
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3196
像中國這樣的國家,
他們擁有「防火長城」。
10:49
You've got countries saying no,
if the Internet happens within our borders
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3520
你會看到一些國家,會說我們不允許
網際網路在國界內恣意流竄,
10:52
we control it within our borders.
195
652847
1575
我們要在國界內對其加以控制。
10:54
We control the content.
We are going to control our security.
196
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2860
我們要控制它的內容。
我們要控制我們的安全。
10:57
We are going to manage that Internet.
197
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1766
我們要管好網際網路。
10:59
We are going to say what can be on it.
198
659120
1813
我們要決定自己可以在裡面扮演什麼。
11:00
We're going to set
a different set of rules.
199
660957
2051
我們要設定一些不同的規則。
11:03
Now you might think,
well, that's just China.
200
663032
2097
現在你可能在想,嗯,那只是中國。
11:05
But it's not just China.
201
665153
1714
但其實不只中國。
11:07
It's China, India, Russia.
202
667651
2729
而是中國、印度、俄羅斯、
11:10
It's Saudi Arabia,
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
203
670708
3100
沙烏地阿拉伯、新加坡、巴西。
11:13
After the NSA scandal, the Russians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
204
673832
4514
在國家安全局的醜聞後,
蘇聯人、中國人、印度人、巴西人,
11:18
they said, let's create
a new Internet backbone,
205
678370
3055
他們都說要創造自己的網路架構,
11:21
because we can't be dependent
on this other one.
206
681449
2482
因為不能再信賴別人的系統。
11:23
And so all of a sudden, what do you have?
207
683955
1969
所以一瞬之間,你還有什麼?
11:26
You have a new bipolar world
208
686400
2499
你得到一個新的強權對立的世界,
11:28
in which cyber-internationalism,
209
688923
2191
在此網路國際主義,
11:31
our belief,
210
691138
1151
我們的信念,
11:32
is challenged by cyber-nationalism,
211
692313
2837
受到網路民族主義的挑戰,
11:35
another belief.
212
695174
1265
另一種信念。
11:37
We are seeing these changes
everywhere we look.
213
697593
3171
我們到處都可以看到這些改變。
11:41
We are seeing the advent of mobile money.
214
701629
1978
我們看到行動貨幣正在來臨。
11:43
It's happening in the places
you wouldn't expect.
215
703631
2297
它發生在你沒想到的地方。
11:45
It's happening in Kenya and Tanzania,
216
705952
2377
它發生在肯亞和坦尚尼亞,
11:48
where millions of people who haven't
had access to financial services
217
708353
3269
那裡有上百萬人
還沒機會使用金融服務,
11:51
now conduct all those
services on their phones.
218
711646
2495
現在卻可以在他們的手機上享用。
11:54
There are 2.5 million people
who don't have financial service access
219
714702
4500
所以250萬無法獲得金融服務的人,
11:59
that are going to get it soon.
220
719226
2016
很快就要得到了。
12:01
A billion of them are going
to have the ability to access it
221
721740
2813
有10億人很快地將得以透過手機
12:04
on their cell phone soon.
222
724577
1195
取得這項服務。
12:05
It's not just going to give them
the ability to bank.
223
725796
2853
這不只讓他們即將有能力開戶存款,
12:08
It's going to change
what monetary policy is.
224
728957
2877
也即將改變貨幣政策,
12:11
It's going to change what money is.
225
731858
2636
即將改變貨幣本身。
12:15
Education is changing in the same way.
226
735262
2171
教育也在以相同的方式改變。
12:18
Healthcare is changing in the same way.
227
738430
2461
醫療也在以相同的方式改變。
12:20
How government services are delivered
is changing in the same way.
228
740915
3494
政府服務如何履行
也在以相同的方式改變。
12:25
And yet, in Washington, we are debating
229
745607
4262
但是在華府,我們還在爭論
12:29
whether to call the terrorist group
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
230
749893
5465
要叫那個已經控制敘利亞
和伊拉克的恐怖組織
12:35
ISIS or ISIL or Islamic State.
231
755382
4160
ISIS還是ISIL還是伊斯蘭國。
12:40
We are trying to determine
232
760540
3111
我們還在試著決定
12:43
how much we want to give
in a negotiation with the Iranians
233
763675
5289
要在和伊朗人做核能交易的談判中
12:48
on a nuclear deal which deals
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
234
768988
4799
退讓多少,針對這種50年前的科技,
12:53
when in fact, we know that the Iranians
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
235
773811
5358
就在我們知道伊朗人事實上
正忙著和我們進行網路戰爭的時候。
12:59
and we're ignoring it, partially
because businesses are not willing
236
779193
6034
而我們忽略這點,
部分因為商業界不希望
13:05
to talk about the attacks
that are being waged on them.
237
785251
3118
去談論在他們身上的一些攻擊。
13:09
And that gets us to another breakdown
238
789399
2809
而這為我們帶來了另一次崩解,
13:12
that's crucial,
239
792232
1224
這是決定性的,
13:13
and another breakdown that couldn't be
more important to a group like this,
240
793480
3711
對我們這樣的群體而言,
沒有任何比這個崩解更重要的事情,
13:17
because the growth of America
and real American national security
241
797215
3652
因為美國的發展以及真正的國家安全
13:20
and all of the things that drove progress
even during the Cold War,
242
800891
4441
還有所有讓我們即使在冷戰中
都能繼續進步的東西,
13:25
was a public-private partnership
between science, technology and government
243
805356
4751
就是在科學、科技和政治之間,
政府和民間的合作,
13:30
that began when Thomas Jefferson
sat alone in his laboratory
244
810131
3508
始於傑佛遜總統獨自坐在他的實驗室裡
13:33
inventing new things.
245
813663
1843
發明新東西時。
13:36
But it was the canals
and railroads and telegraph;
246
816528
3810
但那些東西是運河、鐵路、電信;
13:40
it was radar and the Internet.
247
820362
2316
是雷達和網際網路。
13:43
It was Tang, the breakfast drink --
248
823129
2284
是菓珍,那種早餐飲品--
13:45
probably not the most important
of those developments.
249
825437
2877
可能不是這些發展中最重要的項目。
13:48
But what you had was
a partnership and a dialogue,
250
828795
2879
但我們曾有合作和對話,
13:51
and the dialogue has broken down.
251
831698
2265
而對話現在已經瓦解。
13:53
It's broken down because in Washington,
252
833987
2379
它瓦解是因為在華府,
13:56
less government is considered more.
253
836390
1766
大家認為政府介入越少越好,
13:58
It's broken down because there is,
believe it or not,
254
838180
2479
是因為,無論你信不信
14:00
in Washington, a war on science --
255
840683
1840
在華府,竟有人和科學作對--
14:02
despite the fact that
in all of human history,
256
842547
3039
儘管事實上在所有人類歷史中,
14:05
every time anyone has waged
a war on science,
257
845610
2960
任何時刻有任何人對科學宣戰,
14:08
science has won.
258
848594
1601
科學都獲得最終勝利。
14:11
(Applause)
259
851463
4927
(掌聲)
14:16
But we have a government
that doesn't want to listen,
260
856712
4196
但我們有個不願意傾聽的政府,
14:20
that doesn't have people
at the highest levels
261
860932
2159
不願意讓最高層的人
14:23
that understand this.
262
863115
1154
去了解這些。
14:24
In the nuclear age,
263
864293
1151
在核戰時期,
14:25
when there were people
in senior national security jobs,
264
865468
3167
在國家安全位居要職的人,
14:28
they were expected to speak throw-weight.
265
868659
3028
大家期待他們談論的是導彈荷載量。
14:32
They were expected to know
the lingo, the vocabulary.
266
872005
3018
大家期待他們懂行話、聽不懂的字彙。
14:35
If you went to the highest level
of the U.S. government now
267
875047
2799
現在如果你到美國政府最高層
14:37
and said, "Talk to me about cyber,
about neuroscience,
268
877870
2533
跟他們說:「和我談談
網路、談談神經科學
14:40
about the things that are going
to change the world of tomorrow,"
269
880427
3140
談談即將改變未來世界的事」,
14:43
you'd get a blank stare.
270
883591
1151
你會得到一個白眼。
14:44
I know, because when I wrote this book,
271
884766
1921
我知道這個,因為在我寫這本書時,
14:46
I talked to 150 people,
many from the science and tech side,
272
886711
3040
曾和150個人對談,
許多來自科學和科技領域,
14:49
who felt like they were being
shunted off to the kids' table.
273
889775
3056
他們都覺得自己被分配到小孩桌。
14:53
Meanwhile, on the tech side,
274
893389
2082
與此同時,在科技領域,
14:55
we have lots of wonderful people
creating wonderful things,
275
895495
3805
我們有很多很棒的人、
創造出很棒的東西,
14:59
but they started in garages
and they didn't need the government
276
899324
2957
但他們是從自家車庫出發,
他們不需要政府,
15:02
and they don't want the government.
277
902305
1673
他們也不想要政府。
15:04
Many of them have a political view
that's somewhere between
278
904002
2767
他們大部分對政治的觀點
介於解放和無政府主義之間:
15:06
libertarian and anarchic:
279
906793
1894
15:08
leave me alone.
280
908711
1361
離我遠一點。
15:11
But the world's coming apart.
281
911305
1814
但這世界正在逐漸分裂,
15:13
All of a sudden, there are going to be
massive regulatory changes
282
913668
3389
一瞬之間,將會產生巨大的規律變化、
15:17
and massive issues
associated with conflict
283
917081
2918
巨大的衝突相關議題、
15:20
and massive issues associated
with security and privacy.
284
920023
4285
巨大的安全與隱私相關議題。
15:24
And we haven't even gotten
to the next set of issues,
285
924332
2495
我們甚至會有下一套議題,
15:26
which are philosophical issues.
286
926841
1974
就是哲學議題。
15:29
If you can't vote,
if you can't have a job,
287
929601
2822
如果你不能在沒有網路
的狀態下投票、工作、
15:32
if you can't bank,
if you can't get health care,
288
932447
2492
開戶、看醫生,
15:34
if you can't be educated
without Internet access,
289
934963
2442
和接受教育,
15:37
is Internet access a fundamental right
that should be written into constitutions?
290
937429
4911
那網路連線是該被寫進
憲法的基本權利嗎?
15:42
If Internet access is a fundamental right,
291
942364
3171
如果網路連線是基本權利,
15:45
is electricity access for the 1.2 billion
who don't have access to electricity
292
945559
4158
那對1.2億無法取得
電力供應的人口而言
15:49
a fundamental right?
293
949741
1417
電力供應是個基本權利嗎?
15:51
These are fundamental issues.
Where are the philosophers?
294
951500
3029
這些都是基礎問題,哲學家在哪裡?
15:54
Where's the dialogue?
295
954553
1660
對話在哪裡?
15:57
And that brings me
to the reason that I'm here.
296
957590
2516
這些構成了我今天來到這裡的原因,
16:00
I live in Washington. Pity me.
297
960559
2518
我住在華府。可憐可憐我吧。
16:03
(Laughter)
298
963101
1770
(笑聲)
16:04
The dialogue isn't happening there.
299
964895
2267
在那裡並沒有對話發生。
16:07
These big issues
that will change the world,
300
967932
2395
這些會改變世界、
16:10
change national security,
change economics,
301
970351
2648
改變國家安全、改變經濟、
16:13
create hope, create threats,
302
973023
2883
創造機會、創造威脅的重大議題,
16:15
can only be resolved
when you bring together
303
975930
2714
只有在你將懂科學、懂科技
16:18
groups of people who understand
science and technology
304
978668
3381
的群體聚在一起,
恢復和政府的合作時,
16:22
back together with government.
305
982073
1673
才有可能解決。
16:23
Both sides need each other.
306
983770
2180
雙方互相需要。
16:26
And until we recreate that connection,
307
986486
4752
而唯有在我們重新創造連結,
16:31
until we do what helped America grow
and helped other countries grow,
308
991262
5431
做一些幫助美國成長、
也幫助其他國家成長的事之後,
16:36
then we are going to grow
ever more vulnerable.
309
996717
3070
我們才不會越來越脆弱。
16:40
The risks associated with 9/11
will not be measured
310
1000547
3811
911所帶來風險的衡量方式,
16:44
in terms of lives lost by terror attacks
311
1004382
3006
不該是恐怖攻擊帶走幾條人命、
16:47
or buildings destroyed
or trillions of dollars spent.
312
1007412
4085
摧毀幾棟建築或花掉幾兆美元。
16:52
They'll be measured in terms of the costs
of our distraction from critical issues
313
1012040
4903
他們的衡量方式,應該是讓我們從
緊要的議題上分心造成的代價,
16:56
and our inability to get together
314
1016967
3733
以及無法聚集起
17:00
scientists, technologists,
government leaders,
315
1020724
4196
科學家、科技專家和政府領導人 --
17:04
at a moment of transformation
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
316
1024944
5135
在這樣的轉變時刻,類似於
文藝復興剛開始的時刻、
17:10
akin to the beginning
of the major transformational eras
317
1030103
3718
類似於地球上許多
重大轉變剛開始時的時刻 --
17:13
that have happened on Earth,
318
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17:16
and start coming up with,
if not the right answers,
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想出正確的答案,
17:20
then at least the right questions.
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或至少想出正確的問題。
17:23
We are not there yet,
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我們還沒有辦到這點,
17:25
but discussions like this
and groups like you
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但像這樣的討論、跟你們這樣的群眾,
17:28
are the places where those questions
can be formulated and posed.
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會是這些問題得以
被闡述和提出的場合。
17:32
And that's why I believe
that groups like TED,
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而這正是為什麼
我相信TED這樣的群眾,
17:37
discussions like this around the planet,
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像這樣和整個世界的討論,
17:39
are the place where the future
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
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正是未來外交政策、經濟政策、
17:44
of social policy, of philosophy,
will ultimately take place.
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社會政策、哲學思想產生的終極場合。
17:50
And that's why it's been
a pleasure speaking to you.
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而這就是為什麼和你們談話這麼愉快。
17:52
Thank you very, very much.
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非常感謝各位。
17:54
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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