George Dyson: The birth of the computer

121,181 views ・ 2008-06-23

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譯者: Yi Lu 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai
00:12
Last year, I told you the story, in seven minutes, of Project Orion,
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去年我花了7分鐘和你們講了“獵戶座計劃”的故事,
00:16
which was this very implausible technology
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那是種令人難以置信的科學技術
00:18
that technically could have worked,
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理論上是可行的
00:22
but it had this one-year political window where it could have happened.
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但由於只有一年的政治窗口期
00:26
So it didn't happen. It was a dream that did not happen.
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所以它成了一個從未實現的夢。
00:28
This year I'm going to tell you the story of the birth of digital computing.
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今年我將和你們談一談數位計算的誕生
00:33
This was a perfect introduction.
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這是一個完美的介紹,
00:35
And it's a story that did work. It did happen,
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並且這是真實發生的故事,
00:37
and the machines are all around us.
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類似的機器在我們身邊無處不在。
00:39
And it was a technology that was inevitable.
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這一技術是歷史的必然產物。
00:43
If the people I'm going to tell you the story about,
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今天我在演講裡提到的這群人
00:45
if they hadn't done it, somebody else would have.
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就算他們沒有研發這一技術,一定會有別的人來研發。
00:47
So, it was sort of the right idea at the right time.
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所以數位計算算是種順應當時的時代的理念。
00:51
This is Barricelli's universe. This is the universe we live in now.
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這是Barricelli世界。這也是今天我們所生活的世界。
00:54
It's the universe in which these machines
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正是在這樣的世界裡,
00:56
are now doing all these things, including changing biology.
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這些機器現在正做著各種各樣的工作,比如改變我們的生物學研究。
01:02
I'm starting the story with the first atomic bomb at Trinity,
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首先我想談一談在Trinity進行的第一次原子彈試驗
01:07
which was the Manhattan Project. It was a little bit like TED:
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也就是曼哈頓計劃,這有點像我們TED
01:09
it brought a whole lot of very smart people together.
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都是把很多絕頂聰明的人匯集在一起。
01:12
And three of the smartest people were
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其中3個最聰明的人是
01:14
Stan Ulam, Richard Feynman and John von Neumann.
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斯塔尼斯拉夫·烏拉姆,理查德·費曼和約翰·馮·紐曼
01:18
And it was Von Neumann who said, after the bomb,
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在研究完原子彈以後,馮紐曼說
01:20
he was working on something much more important than bombs:
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他正研究一件比原子彈更重要的事
01:24
he's thinking about computers.
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那就是電腦。
01:26
So, he wasn't only thinking about them; he built one. This is the machine he built.
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他不僅僅是空想而已,他還造了一台。這就是他造的機器。
01:30
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:34
He built this machine,
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他造了這台機器
01:36
and we had a beautiful demonstration of how this thing really works,
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並且他漂亮的演示了這台機器如何以位元為單位運轉
01:39
with these little bits. And it's an idea that goes way back.
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位元這一概念其實很早就有了
01:42
The first person to really explain that
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第一個真正解釋這一概念的人
01:45
was Thomas Hobbes, who, in 1651,
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叫湯馬斯·霍布斯
01:48
explained how arithmetic and logic are the same thing,
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1651年,他解釋了算數和邏輯從某種意義上說其實是一回事
01:51
and if you want to do artificial thinking and artificial logic,
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如果你想實現人工思考和人工邏輯,
01:54
you can do it all with arithmetic.
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你都可以用算數的方法來實現。
01:56
He said you needed addition and subtraction.
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他說你只需要做加法和減法就行了。
02:00
Leibniz, who came a little bit later -- this is 1679 --
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在他之後的萊布尼茨
02:04
showed that you didn't even need subtraction.
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在1679年證明你甚至都不需要做減法
02:06
You could do the whole thing with addition.
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只需要做加法就行了。
02:08
Here, we have all the binary arithmetic and logic
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我們有了所有的二進制運算和邏輯
02:11
that drove the computer revolution.
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這些帶來了電腦革命
02:13
And Leibniz was the first person to really talk about building such a machine.
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萊布尼茨是第一個真正討論建造這一機器的人
02:17
He talked about doing it with marbles,
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他想利用大理石讓機器實現這樣的運算和邏輯
02:19
having gates and what we now call shift registers,
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這樣的機器有一種“門”,我們今天稱之為移位寄存器
02:21
where you shift the gates, drop the marbles down the tracks.
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當你打開“門”時,大理石就會從門裡穿過掉在軌道上
02:24
And that's what all these machines are doing,
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其實這就是今天我們所有類似機器的運作原理
02:26
except, instead of doing it with marbles,
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但是用的不是大理石
02:28
they're doing it with electrons.
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而是電子。
02:30
And then we jump to Von Neumann, 1945,
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接著我們跳到1945年
02:34
when he sort of reinvents the whole same thing.
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馮諾曼發明了一個幾乎一樣的東西。
02:36
And 1945, after the war, the electronics existed
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1945年,二戰之後
02:39
to actually try and build such a machine.
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當時的電子工業真正的開始嘗試建造這麼一種機器
02:42
So June 1945 -- actually, the bomb hasn't even been dropped yet --
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所以在1945年的六月,實際上那時候原子彈還沒投下
02:46
and Von Neumann is putting together all the theory to actually build this thing,
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馮諾曼已經把實際生產這種機器所需的一切理論準備好了
02:50
which also goes back to Turing,
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再來看看Turing (圖靈)
02:52
who, before that, gave the idea that you could do all this
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他在之前已經有了一個想法,那就是
02:55
with a very brainless, little, finite state machine,
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你可以用一種非常簡單,有限狀態的機器完成所有的工作
02:59
just reading a tape in and reading a tape out.
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就好比讀取一盤磁帶
03:02
The other sort of genesis of what Von Neumann did
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另一個馮諾曼的天才之處
03:05
was the difficulty of how you would predict the weather.
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就是克服預測天氣的困難
03:09
Lewis Richardson saw how you could do this with a cellular array of people,
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Lewis Richardson發現可以利用單元陣列的人
03:13
giving them each a little chunk, and putting it together.
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給他們每人一小塊,然後拼在一起
03:16
Here, we have an electrical model illustrating a mind having a will,
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這兒我們有一個電子模型,演示了一個有思維的“頭腦”
03:19
but capable of only two ideas.
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但只有兩個想法
03:21
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:22
And that's really the simplest computer.
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這真的要算是最簡單的電腦
03:25
It's basically why you need the qubit,
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這基本上解釋了我們為什麼需要量子位元
03:27
because it only has two ideas.
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一個位元只有兩種狀態
03:29
And you put lots of those together,
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一旦你把很多這樣的量子位元組織起來
03:31
you get the essentials of the modern computer:
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就成了我們今天電腦的核心部分
03:34
the arithmetic unit, the central control, the memory,
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運算單元、中央控制器、記憶體
03:37
the recording medium, the input and the output.
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儲存媒介,輸入和輸出
03:40
But, there's one catch. This is the fatal -- you know,
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但是有個很致命的一點
03:44
we saw it in starting these programs up.
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我們在開始這個程序時會發現
03:47
The instructions which govern this operation
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指導這一操作的指令
03:49
must be given in absolutely exhaustive detail.
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必須做到非常非常的詳細
03:51
So, the programming has to be perfect, or it won't work.
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所以程式必須設計得非常完美,否則它就無法執行
03:54
If you look at the origins of this,
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如果你回過頭看,
03:56
the classic history sort of takes it all back to the ENIAC here.
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這一切的起因都可以追溯到ENIAC計算機。
04:00
But actually, the machine I'm going to tell you about,
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但是實際上,今天我將要介紹的機器
04:02
the Institute for Advanced Study machine, which is way up there,
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高等研究所的機器,正是擺在那邊的那台
04:05
really should be down there. So, I'm trying to revise history,
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真的位置應該在這裡。所以,我正在試圖修改歷史。
04:07
and give some of these guys more credit than they've had.
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給這些傢伙更多褒獎。
04:10
Such a computer would open up universes,
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這樣一台電腦開創了一個新的領域
04:12
which are, at the present, outside the range of any instruments.
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這是到目前為止其它任何一台工具所不能比的
04:16
So it opens up a whole new world, and these people saw it.
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它開啟了一個嶄新的世界,這樣一群人預見到了。
04:19
The guy who was supposed to build this machine
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被認為是製造這台機器的人
04:21
was the guy in the middle, Vladimir Zworykin, from RCA.
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就站在中間,他名叫弗拉迪米爾 佐利金,來自美國廣播公司
04:24
RCA, in probably one of the lousiest business decisions
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美國廣播公司,當時可能做了有史以來最糟糕的決定
04:27
of all time, decided not to go into computers.
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那就是放棄研發電腦。
04:30
But the first meetings, November 1945, were at RCA's offices.
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在1945年11月,在美國廣播公司的辦公室召開了第一次會議
04:35
RCA started this whole thing off, and said, you know,
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經過了一番研究,說
04:39
televisions are the future, not computers.
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電視才是未來發展的趨勢,不是電腦。
04:42
The essentials were all there --
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所有的必要元件都在這裡
04:44
all the things that make these machines run.
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所有可以使這些機器運行的元件。
04:48
Von Neumann, and a logician, and a mathematician from the army
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馮諾曼,和一位邏輯學家以及一位軍人數學家
04:51
put this together. Then, they needed a place to build it.
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把這些元件組裝在一起。接下來他們需要一個地方來建造
04:53
When RCA said no, that's when they decided to build it in Princeton,
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美國廣告公司拒絕了以後,他們才決定把機器建在
04:57
where Freeman works at the Institute.
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弗里曼工作的普林斯頓研究所。
04:59
That's where I grew up as a kid.
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我從小在那長大
05:01
That's me, that's my sister Esther, who's talked to you before,
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這是我和我姐姐Esther,她之前在這裡演講過
05:05
so we both go back to the birth of this thing.
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所以我們都追溯了這一機器的誕生
05:08
That's Freeman, a long time ago,
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這是弗里曼很久以前的樣子
05:10
and that was me.
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這是我
05:11
And this is Von Neumann and Morgenstern,
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這是馮諾曼和Morgenstern
05:14
who wrote the "Theory of Games."
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他們是博弈理論的創始人
05:16
All these forces came together there, in Princeton.
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各方的力量都匯集在普林斯頓
05:20
Oppenheimer, who had built the bomb.
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奧本哈默,製造原子彈的人
05:22
The machine was actually used mainly for doing bomb calculations.
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這台機器主要用來進行原子彈相關的運算
05:26
And Julian Bigelow, who took
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比戈洛(John Bigelow)
05:28
Zworkykin's place as the engineer, to actually figure out, using electronics,
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他是工程師,他用電子元件,
05:32
how you would build this thing. The whole gang of people who came to work on this,
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找出了製造這一機器的真正方法。這一幫人,
05:35
and women in front, who actually did most of the coding, were the first programmers.
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包括那個站在前面的女士們,他們編寫了大部分的代碼。所有的這一幫人是歷史上第一批程式設計師。
05:40
These were the prototype geeks, the nerds.
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他們也是那些網路怪人,技術狂人的老祖宗
05:44
They didn't fit in at the Institute.
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研究所不適合他們
05:46
This is a letter from the director, concerned about --
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這是一封來自主任的信,主題為
05:49
"especially unfair on the matter of sugar."
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“關於實驗室裏砂糖分配不平均的問題”
05:52
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:53
You can read the text.
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你們可以自己讀讀原文
05:54
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:00
This is hackers getting in trouble for the first time.
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這是黑客們第一次遇到麻煩
06:04
(Laughter).
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(笑聲)
06:09
These were not theoretical physicists.
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這些不是理論物理學家
06:11
They were real soldering-gun type guys, and they actually built this thing.
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他們是真正的實踐者,是他們親手製造了這一機器。
06:16
And we take it for granted now, that each of these machines
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現在我們想當然而地認為
06:18
has billions of transistors, doing billions of cycles per second without failing.
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這些含有幾十億個電晶體,每秒進行幾十億次計算的機器不會出現差錯。
06:23
They were using vacuum tubes, very narrow, sloppy techniques
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他們當時用真空管,非常不成熟的技術
06:27
to get actually binary behavior out of these radio vacuum tubes.
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運用無線電真空管實現了二進制運算
06:32
They actually used 6J6, the common radio tube,
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他們用的是6J6,也就是通用電子管
06:35
because they found they were more reliable than the more expensive tubes.
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因為他們發現這比那些價錢更貴的電子管更可靠。
06:39
And what they did at the Institute was publish every step of the way.
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他們把研究結果的每一步都巨細糜遺地發表
06:43
Reports were issued, so that this machine was cloned
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隨著研究報告的發布,
06:46
at 15 other places around the world.
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使得世界其他15個地方也可以製造出相同的機器
06:49
And it really was. It was the original microprocessor.
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這台機器真的是微處理器的鼻祖
06:53
All the computers now are copies of that machine.
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現在所有的電腦都是仿照這台機器。
06:55
The memory was in cathode ray tubes --
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存儲器用的是陰極射線管
06:58
a whole bunch of spots on the face of the tube --
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陰極射線管表面的一簇點
07:01
very, very sensitive to electromagnetic disturbances.
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對電磁干擾十分敏感
07:04
So, there's 40 of these tubes,
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所以就有了40個這樣的陰極射線管
07:06
like a V-40 engine running the memory.
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就好像一個用V-40發動機來跑的存儲器
07:09
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:10
The input and the output was by teletype tape at first.
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起初的輸入和輸出是靠電傳打字帶
07:15
This is a wire drive, using bicycle wheels.
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使用腳踏車輪,有線驅動
07:17
This is the archetype of the hard disk that's in your machine now.
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這就是我們今天電腦裡硬碟的原型。
07:22
Then they switched to a magnetic drum.
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後來他們改用磁鼓
07:24
This is modifying IBM equipment,
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這是一種改良的IBM的設備
07:26
which is the origins of the whole data-processing industry, later at IBM.
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也是後來IBM整個數據處理行業的起源。
07:30
And this is the beginning of computer graphics.
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這也是電腦圖學的開端
07:33
The "Graph'g-Beam Turn On." This next slide,
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下一張幻燈片
07:36
that's the -- as far as I know -- the first digital bitmap display, 1954.
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這是我所知道的最早的數字位圖,誕生於1954年
07:43
So, Von Neumann was already off in a theoretical cloud,
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所以馮諾曼那時已經不再是純理論研究
07:46
doing abstract sorts of studies of how you could build
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而是進行一種抽象性的研究
07:49
reliable machines out of unreliable components.
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希望利用不穩定的部件製造出可靠的機器。
07:52
Those guys drinking all the tea with sugar in it
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這些喝著摻了糖的茶的人
07:54
were writing in their logbooks, trying to get this thing to work, with all
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正在他們的記錄本上記錄,試圖讓這一想法實現
07:58
these 2,600 vacuum tubes that failed half the time.
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他們試驗的2600個真空管,有一半時間都是閒置的
08:01
And that's what I've been doing, this last six months, is going through the logs.
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我過去6個月就一直在看這些記錄
08:06
"Running time: two minutes. Input, output: 90 minutes."
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“執行時間:2分鐘。輸入,輸出:90分鐘。”
08:09
This includes a large amount of human error.
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這包含了大量的人為錯誤
08:12
So they are always trying to figure out, what's machine error? What's human error?
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所以他們一直試著辨別到底哪些是機器故障,哪些是人為錯誤
08:15
What's code, what's hardware?
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是程式碼問題 還是硬體的問題
08:17
That's an engineer gazing at tube number 36,
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這是一位工程師正盯著36號電子管
08:19
trying to figure out why the memory's not in focus.
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試圖找出內存位置不對的原因
08:21
He had to focus the memory -- seems OK.
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他不得不親自對位 —— 看上去還行
08:24
So, he had to focus each tube just to get the memory up and running,
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所以他必須對位每一個電子管,僅僅為了使內存能恢復執行
08:28
let alone having, you know, software problems.
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更不用說遇到軟體問題時他會有多麼手忙腳亂了
08:30
"No use, went home." (Laughter)
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“沒用,回家。”(笑聲)
08:32
"Impossible to follow the damn thing, where's a directory?"
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“完全不可能搞定這該死的東西,電話薄在那?“
08:35
So, already, they're complaining about the manuals:
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他們那時已經在抱怨(沒人看得懂的)使用說明書了
08:37
"before closing down in disgust ... "
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”這(説明書)實在是讀不下去"
08:41
"The General Arithmetic: Operating Logs."
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“通用算法 —— 運行日誌”
08:43
Burning lots of midnight oil.
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開了很多夜車
08:46
"MANIAC," which became the acronym for the machine,
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MANIAC,成了這台機器的縮寫
08:48
Mathematical and Numerical Integrator and Calculator, "lost its memory."
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數學和數值整合器與計算器,“內存記憶遺失。”
08:51
"MANIAC regained its memory, when the power went off." "Machine or human?"
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“MANIAC在斷電後重新找回內存記憶” “機器故障還是人為錯誤?”
08:57
"Aha!" So, they figured out it's a code problem.
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“啊哈!” 結果是程式碼的問題
09:00
"Found trouble in code, I hope."
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“程式碼有問題,但願是如此。”
09:02
"Code error, machine not guilty."
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“程式碼錯誤,機器是無辜的。”
09:05
"Damn it, I can be just as stubborn as this thing."
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“該死,我竟變得和這機器一樣難纏”
09:08
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:13
"And the dawn came." So they ran all night.
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“黎明來了。” 看來他們熬了一整夜。
09:15
Twenty-four hours a day, this thing was running, mainly running bomb calculations.
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這台機器一天24小時不停的運轉,主要是進行核彈相關的運算
09:19
"Everything up to this point is wasted time." "What's the use? Good night."
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“到目前為止所有的工作都是在浪費時間。” “這有什麼用?晚安。”
09:24
"Master control off. The hell with it. Way off." (Laughter)
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“主控關閉。搞什麼鬼。太離譜了。”
09:28
"Something's wrong with the air conditioner --
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“空調出問題了——
09:30
smell of burning V-belts in the air."
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聞到空氣中皮帶燒焦的味道”
09:33
"A short -- do not turn the machine on."
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“不要開機”
09:35
"IBM machine putting a tar-like substance on the cards. The tar is from the roof."
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“IBM機器的卡片上有了像焦油一樣的油漬,從屋頂掉下來的。”
09:40
So they really were working under tough conditions.
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看來他們的工作環境真的很艱苦
09:42
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:43
Here, "A mouse has climbed into the blower
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看這個,“一隻老鼠爬進了鼓風機
09:45
behind the regulator rack, set blower to vibrating. Result: no more mouse."
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使得鼓風機震動。結果:老鼠不見了。”
09:49
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:54
"Here lies mouse. Born: ?. Died: 4:50 a.m., May 1953."
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“老鼠躺在這裡。出生年月:未知。死於:4:50am, 1953年5月。”
10:01
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:02
There's an inside joke someone has penciled in:
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有人在這寫了個內部人才能理解的玩笑:
10:04
"Here lies Marston Mouse."
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“Marston老鼠在此安息。”
10:06
If you're a mathematician, you get that,
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如果你是個數學家,你就會明白
10:08
because Marston was a mathematician who
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因為Marston是一位
10:09
objected to the computer being there.
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反對電腦的數學家
10:12
"Picked a lightning bug off the drum." "Running at two kilocycles."
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“把一只螢火蟲從磁鼓上拿開。” “以兩千赫茲的頻率運行。”
10:16
That's two thousand cycles per second --
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那是一秒鐘兩千次的循環
10:18
"yes, I'm chicken" -- so two kilocycles was slow speed.
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“是的,我很膽小" -- 所以兩千次是很慢的速度
10:21
The high speed was 16 kilocycles.
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1萬6千次每秒才是高速
10:24
I don't know if you remember a Mac that was 16 Megahertz,
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我不知道你們是否還記得過去Mac的主頻是16兆赫茲
10:27
that's slow speed.
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那是很慢的速度
10:29
"I have now duplicated both results.
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”我現在有了兩種結果。
10:32
How will I know which is right, assuming one result is correct?
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假設其中一個結果是正確的,我怎麼才能知道哪一個是正確的呢?
10:35
This now is the third different output.
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現在有了第三種不同的結果
10:37
I know when I'm licked."
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我知道我失敗了“
10:39
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:41
"We've duplicated errors before."
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”我們之前犯過錯誤“
10:43
"Machine run, fine. Code isn't."
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”機器運行正常,程式碼有誤。“
10:46
"Only happens when the machine is running."
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”只在機器運行時發生。“
10:48
And sometimes things are okay.
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有時一切正常。
10:52
"Machine a thing of beauty, and a joy forever." "Perfect running."
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“機器是件美好的事物,是永恆的快樂。” “完美運行。”
10:56
"Parting thought: when there's bigger and better errors, we'll have them."
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“臨別思考:當出現更大的錯誤時,我們會解決的。”
11:00
So, nobody was supposed to know they were actually designing bombs.
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所以沒有人知道他們在設計核彈。
11:03
They're designing hydrogen bombs. But someone in the logbook,
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他們在設計氫彈。但是有人在日誌本上,
11:05
late one night, finally drew a bomb.
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有一天晚上最終畫了一個炸彈。
11:07
So, that was the result. It was Mike,
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那就是成果。氫彈Mike
11:09
the first thermonuclear bomb, in 1952.
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1952年,第一顆熱核彈
11:12
That was designed on that machine,
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正是在那台電腦上被設計出來的。
11:14
in the woods behind the Institute.
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在研究所後面的樹林中
11:16
So Von Neumann invited a whole gang of weirdos
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所以馮諾曼邀請了這麼一幫來自世界各地的怪人
11:20
from all over the world to work on all these problems.
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來研究所有這些問題。
11:23
Barricelli, he came to do what we now call, really, artificial life,
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Barricelli,他當時被邀請過來從事我們現在稱為人造生命的研究
11:27
trying to see if, in this artificial universe --
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要試著去弄清楚,在這個人造的宇宙裏能否實現人造生命
11:30
he was a viral-geneticist, way, way, way ahead of his time.
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他是病毒遺傳學家 —— 他的理論在那個時代大大的超前
11:33
He's still ahead of some of the stuff that's being done now.
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有些方面甚至比今天的研究還要超前。
11:36
Trying to start an artificial genetic system running in the computer.
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他試圖在電腦上開始執行一個人造基因系統
11:41
Began -- his universe started March 3, '53.
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他的計劃開始於1953年3月3日
11:44
So it's almost exactly -- it's 50 years ago next Tuesday, I guess.
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如果算到下週二的話,基本上就是剛剛好50年前了。
11:49
And he saw everything in terms of --
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他看事物的方式很特別
11:51
he could read the binary code straight off the machine.
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他可以直接看懂機器上用的二進制語言
11:53
He had a wonderful rapport.
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他同機器有著良好的關係
11:55
Other people couldn't get the machine running. It always worked for him.
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其他人無法讓機器運轉時,他總是能夠搞定
11:58
Even errors were duplicated.
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甚至錯誤都可以一模一樣地複製出來
12:00
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
12:01
"Dr. Barricelli claims machine is wrong, code is right."
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“Barricelli博士稱機器是錯的,程式碼是正確的。”
12:04
So he designed this universe, and ran it.
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所以他設計了這個宇宙,並且使其自行運行
12:07
When the bomb people went home, he was allowed in there.
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當研究原子彈的人回家時,他就可以進來用
12:10
He would run that thing all night long, running these things,
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他可以整晚使用這些系統
12:13
if anybody remembers Stephen Wolfram,
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有誰記得Stephen Wolfram
12:15
who reinvented this stuff.
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他重新發明了這個東西
12:17
And he published it. It wasn't locked up and disappeared.
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他發表了出來,結果後來被鎖在櫃子裡找不到了
12:19
It was published in the literature.
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這些都發布在文獻中
12:21
"If it's that easy to create living organisms, why not create a few yourself?"
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“如果創造活的有機體很容易的話,為什麼不造幾個自己?”
12:24
So, he decided to give it a try,
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所以他決定試一試
12:26
to start this artificial biology going in the machines.
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他開始在機器上進行人造生物試驗。
12:30
And he found all these, sort of --
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他發現了所有這些
12:32
it was like a naturalist coming in
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就好像一個自然學家
12:34
and looking at this tiny, 5,000-byte universe,
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跑進來觀察這個微小的,5000位元組的世界
12:37
and seeing all these things happening
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觀察所有的變化
12:39
that we see in the outside world, in biology.
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就好比我們從生物的角度看世界一樣
12:42
This is some of the generations of his universe.
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這是他創造的世界的幾個版本。
12:48
But they're just going to stay numbers;
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但是他們僅僅停留在數字上
12:50
they're not going to become organisms.
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數字不會變成有機體
12:52
They have to have something.
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他們必須具備某些東西
12:53
You have a genotype and you have to have a phenotype.
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你有一個基因型,你就比喻有個表型
12:55
They have to go out and do something. And he started doing that,
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他們必須走出去做些事,所以他就開始做這些
12:58
started giving these little numerical organisms things they could play with --
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他開始賦予這些數字有機體一些可以工作的事情
13:01
playing chess with other machines and so on.
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比如和其他機器下棋等等。
13:03
And they did start to evolve.
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接著,這些有機體確實開始進化了
13:05
And he went around the country after that.
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他之後跑遍了全國
13:07
Every time there was a new, fast machine, he started using it,
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每次出來一種新型快速的機器時,他都要試用一下
13:11
and saw exactly what's happening now.
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他都會觀察同樣的結果:
13:13
That the programs, instead of being turned off -- when you quit the program,
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程式在你退出的時候並不會停止執行
13:19
you'd keep running
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而是繼續執行
13:21
and, basically, all the sorts of things like Windows is doing,
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基本上,所有這些,比如說Windows所做的事情
13:25
running as a multi-cellular organism on many machines,
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這種多機的多任務處理
13:27
he envisioned all that happening.
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他全都預見到了。
13:28
And he saw that evolution itself was an intelligent process.
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他並且認為進化本身是一個智能過程
13:31
It wasn't any sort of creator intelligence,
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並不是那種創造者(上帝)才有的智能
13:34
but the thing itself was a giant parallel computation
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而是,進化本是就是一個龐大的平行運算
13:37
that would have some intelligence.
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有著一定的智能。
13:39
And he went out of his way to say
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他特別指出
13:41
that he was not saying this was lifelike,
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他不認為這是生命
13:44
or a new kind of life.
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或者是一種新的生命
13:46
It just was another version of the same thing happening.
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這僅僅是同一樣正在發生的事情的另一個版本
13:49
And there's really no difference between what he was doing in the computer
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他正在電腦上做的
13:52
and what nature did billions of years ago.
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和自然界過去幾十億年以來發生的沒有區別。
13:55
And could you do it again now?
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現在可以再重作一遍嗎?
13:57
So, when I went into these archives looking at this stuff, lo and behold,
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當我看所有這些檔案資料的時候
14:01
the archivist came up one day, saying,
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檔案員有一天走過來說
14:03
"I think we found another box that had been thrown out."
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“我們發現了另一個之前被廢棄的盒子。”
14:06
And it was his universe on punch cards.
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盒子裡裝著他打在卡片上的小宇宙(程式碼)
14:08
So there it is, 50 years later, sitting there -- sort of suspended animation.
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所以50年以後,有點像暫停的動畫
14:14
That's the instructions for running --
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這是執行的指令
14:16
this is actually the source code
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這實際上是原始碼
14:18
for one of those universes,
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是給其中一個系統使用的
14:20
with a note from the engineers
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還附帶一張工程師的便條
14:22
saying they're having some problems.
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上面寫著這些碼有些問題
14:23
"There must be something about this code that you haven't explained yet."
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“一定是一些關於程式碼你還沒有解釋的問題”
14:28
And I think that's really the truth. We still don't understand
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我想這是真的。我們仍然無法理解
14:31
how these very simple instructions can lead to increasing complexity.
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這些十分簡單的指令是如何實現如此的複雜的系統的?
14:35
What's the dividing line between
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類生命和真實的生命之間
14:37
when that is lifelike and when it really is alive?
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到底怎麼區分?
14:41
These cards, now, thanks to me showing up, are being saved.
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這些卡片,現在因為我的發現,得以保存下來。
14:45
And the question is, should we run them or not?
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問題是,我們是否應該去再一次跑這些程式?
14:47
You know, could we get them running?
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還跑得起來嗎?
14:49
Do you want to let it loose on the Internet?
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是否要將他們放在網上?
14:50
These machines would think they --
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這些機器會想
14:52
these organisms, if they came back to life now --
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如果他們現在復活
14:55
whether they've died and gone to heaven, there's a universe.
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無論他們是不是死去後去了天堂,那總有一個世界
14:57
My laptop is 10 thousand million times
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我的筆記本比起Barricelli退出這一計劃時留下來的系統
15:02
the size of the universe that they lived in when Barricelli quit the project.
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大了一萬倍。
15:07
He was thinking far ahead, to
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他當時大膽的設想
15:09
how this would really grow into a new kind of life.
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這些系統怎樣真正發展成一種新的生命體。
15:12
And that's what's happening!
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這也是現在正在發生的
15:14
When Juan Enriquez told us about
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當Juan Enriquez告訴我們
15:16
these 12 trillion bits being transferred back and forth,
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有12萬億位元正在被來回傳輸
15:20
of all this genomics data going to the proteomics lab,
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以染色體數據的形式聚集到蛋白質組學實驗室
15:24
that's what Barricelli imagined:
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這正是Barricelli所設想的
15:26
that this digital code in these machines
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那就是這些機器裡的數位碼
15:29
is actually starting to code --
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已經開始編碼
15:31
it already is coding from nucleic acids.
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它已經從核酸開始編碼
15:34
We've been doing that since, you know, since we started PCR
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我們從聚合酶鏈式反應(PCR)開始就一直在做了
15:37
and synthesizing small strings of DNA.
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並且合成小段的DNA
15:43
And real soon, we're actually going to be synthesizing the proteins,
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不久我們將會合成蛋白質
15:46
and, like Steve showed us, that just opens an entirely new world.
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正如Steve所展示的,這開啟了一個嶄新的世界。
15:51
It's a world that Von Neumann himself envisioned.
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這是馮諾曼所設想的世界
15:54
This was published after he died: his sort of unfinished notes
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這在他死後得以發表,是一些他未完成的手稿
15:57
on self-reproducing machines,
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內容是關於自我繁殖的機器
15:59
what it takes to get the machines sort of jump-started
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以及是什麼能夠讓機器一下開始
16:02
to where they begin to reproduce.
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進行自我繁殖。
16:04
It took really three people:
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有這麼三個人:
16:06
Barricelli had the concept of the code as a living thing;
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Barricelli提出了程式碼是活的這一概念
16:09
Von Neumann saw how you could build the machines --
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馮諾曼發現了怎樣建構這種機器
16:12
that now, last count, four million
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現在,每24小時
16:15
of these Von Neumann machines is built every 24 hours;
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就有四百萬的馮諾曼式機器生產出來。
16:18
and Julian Bigelow, who died 10 days ago --
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Julian Bigelow,他10天前去世
16:22
this is John Markoff's obituary for him --
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這是John Markoff寫的追思文:
16:25
he was the important missing link,
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他是被忽視但卻十分重要的一環
16:27
the engineer who came in
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身為一個工程師
16:29
and knew how to put those vacuum tubes together and make it work.
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他知道怎樣把這些真空管組裝在一起使他們運行。
16:32
And all our computers have, inside them,
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我們今天所有的電腦內部
16:34
the copies of the architecture that he had to just design
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都有著當初他所設計的結構
16:38
one day, sort of on pencil and paper.
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這些結構都是他親手用紙筆畫出草稿的。
16:41
And we owe a tremendous credit to that.
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我們欠他很多
16:43
And he explained, in a very generous way,
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他以一種慷慨的方式
16:47
the spirit that brought all these different people to
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詮釋了一種精神,使得他可以號召所有的人
16:49
the Institute for Advanced Study in the '40s to do this project,
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在40年代來到高等研究院做這個項目的精神
16:52
and make it freely available with no patents, no restrictions,
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並且完全公開結果,不設專利,沒有任何限制
16:55
no intellectual property disputes to the rest of the world.
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沒有任何智慧產權爭議。
16:58
That's the last entry in the logbook
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這是這本日誌的最後幾行
17:01
when the machine was shut down, July 1958.
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寫於1958年7月,機器停止運行的那天。
17:04
And it's Julian Bigelow who was running it until midnight
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正是Julian Bigelow
17:07
when the machine was officially turned off.
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在機器正式關閉時,一直守著機器運行到午夜
17:09
And that's the end.
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我的演講完了。
17:11
Thank you very much.
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謝謝大家
17:13
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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