Earth's mass extinctions | Peter Ward

譯者: Joyce Leung 審譯者: Felix Leung

So, I want to start out with

好,我先由

this beautiful picture from my childhood.

我這幅美麗的童年照開始講起

I love the science fiction movies.

我喜愛看科幻電影

Here it is: "This Island Earth."

這套: "飛碟征空"

And leave it to Hollywood to get it just right.

最適合在美國荷里活上映.

Two-and-a-half years in the making.

用了兩年半的時間製作.

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

I mean, even the creationists give us 6,000,

我是說,當時創作人給了我們$6000

but Hollywood goes to the chase.

但荷里活緊緊跟隨

And in this movie, we see what we think is out there:

還有在這電影裡, 我們看到所認為的外太空:

flying saucers and aliens.

飛碟和外星人.

Every world has an alien, and every alien world has a flying saucer,

每個世界都有外星人, 而每個外星人世界都有飛碟,

and they move about with great speed. Aliens.

他們行動很快捷. 外星人.

Well, Don Brownlee, my friend, and I finally got to the point

我和我的朋友唐布朗利都覺得

where we got tired of turning on the TV

我們厭倦開電視

and seeing the spaceships and seeing the aliens every night,

每一晚都看著太空船和外星人

and tried to write a counter-argument to it,

也厭倦寫有關外太空正反觀點

and put out what does it really take for an Earth to be habitable,

改為想有什麼條件令地球適合居住

for a planet to be an Earth, to have a place

就是地球, 不單有地方住

where you could probably get not just life, but complexity,

能讓人生存, 更有複雜性

which requires a huge amount of evolution,

這需要長時間的進化

and therefore constancy of conditions.

所以需要環境的稳定性

So, in 2000 we wrote "Rare Earth." In 2003, we then asked,

所以2000年我們寫了 "Rare Earth". 在2003年,我們便說

let's not think about where Earths are in space, but how long has Earth been Earth?

不要只想著地球在太空的位置,而去想想地球有幾長時間為地球

If you go back two billion years,

如果你回到20億年前,

you're not on an Earth-like planet any more.

那行星不像你今日所見的地球

What we call an Earth-like planet is actually a very short interval of time.

我們所稱為地球的行星其實很年輕

Well, "Rare Earth" actually

在"Rare Earth"裡

taught me an awful lot about meeting the public.

教導我極多關於面對群眾的要訣

Right after, I got an invitation to go to a science fiction convention,

有次我收到一個科幻電影會展的邀請

and with all great earnestness walked in.

我帶著一股熱誠步入場地

David Brin was going to debate me on this,

David Brin 正在與我爭辯

and as I walked in, the crowd of a hundred started booing lustily.

當我行入會塲,幾百人開始發出很大的噓聲

I had a girl who came up who said, "My dad says you're the devil."

有個小女孩走到我面前說:"我爸說你是一個魔鬼."

You cannot take people's aliens away from them

你不可以從別人身上取走外星人

and expect to be anybody's friends.

然後同所有人做朋友.

Well, the second part of that, soon after --

第二部分,這之後..

and I was talking to Paul Allen; I saw him in the audience,

我和Paul Allen 聊天,因我在觀眾席見到他

and I handed him a copy of "Rare Earth."

我給他一本"Rare Earth"

And Jill Tarter was there, and she turned to me,

Jill Tarter 聽到,她臉向我

and she looked at me just like that girl in "The Exorcist."

她看我的表情就像剛才那女孩在看"驅魔人"

It was, "It burns! It burns!"

就像說"著火了!著火了!"

Because SETI doesn't want to hear this.

因為SETI不想聽到這話. (SEIT: Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence 尋找外太空星球智慧生命計畫)

SETI wants there to be stuff out there.

SETI一直想在太空找到外星人

I really applaud the SETI efforts, but we have not heard anything yet.

我要為SETI的努力鼓掌,但我們未聽到什麼消息.

And I really do think we have to start thinking

我真的認為我們要開始思考

about what's a good planet and what isn't.

怎樣才是一個好或不好的行星

Now, I throw this slide up because it indicates to me that,

現在我放這投影片因它向我顯示

even if SETI does hear something, can we figure out what they said?

就算SETI真的聽到什麼,我們如何理解那些話?

Because this was a slide that was passed

因為這張投影片經過

between the two major intelligences on Earth -- a Mac to a PC --

兩個地球上智能產品 -- Mac 和 PC

and it can't even get the letters right --

但它們都不能辨認那些字

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

-- so how are we going to talk to the aliens?

所以我們如何和外星人溝通?

And if they're 50 light years away, and we call them up,

如果他們在50光年以外,而我們打電話給他們

and you blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,

然後你叭啦叭啦說了一大堆

and then 50 years later it comes back and they say, Please repeat?

50年後訊號回來是:請再說一遍

I mean, there we are.

所以我們就是這樣

Our planet is a good planet because it can keep water.

我們的地球是一個好行星因它能儲存水.

Mars is a bad planet, but it's still good enough for us to go there

火星是一個差的行星但它仍可接受

and to live on its surface if we're protected.

如果我們受到保護就可以住在它的表面

But Venus is a very bad -- the worst -- planet.

但金星很差-最差-的行星

Even though it's Earth-like, and even though early in its history

就算它外表像地球,就算它以前

it may very well have harbored Earth-like life,

可能有海洋生態

it soon succumbed to runaway greenhouse --

它最終敗合一發不可收拾的溫室效應

that's an 800 degrees [Fahrenheit] surface --

攝氏800度的表面

because of rampant carbon dioxide.

因為二氧化碳的泛濫

Well, we know from astrobiology that we can really now predict

我們從天體生物學裡能預測

what's going to happen to our particular planet.

地球將會發生的事

We are right now in the beautiful Oreo

我們正處於這漂亮的Oreo時期

of existence -- of at least life on Planet Earth --

可能是地球上最後存在的生物

following the first horrible microbial age.

接著是可怕的微生物時代

In the Cambrian explosion, life emerged from the swamps,

寒武紀大爆發時生物從沼澤出來

complexity arose,

成為更複雜的生物

and from what we can tell, we're halfway through.

由此可見我們己經歷了一半

We have as much time for animals to exist on this planet

動物在地球上一早生存著

as they have been here now,

就如現況

till we hit the second microbial age.

直至我們經歷第二次微生物時代

And that will happen, paradoxically --

接著反常態的情況-

everything you hear about global warming --

所有你聽到有關全球暖化-

when we hit CO2 down to 10 parts per million,

當減少二氧化碳到百萬分之十

we are no longer going to have to have plants

我們便不再有植物

that are allowed to have any photosynthesis, and there go animals.

產生光合作用,然後動物也沒有

So, after that we probably have seven billion years.

之後估計我們會有70億年時間

The Sun increases in its intensity, in its brightness,

太陽會更猛烈更光

and finally, at about 12 billion years after it first started,

最後,120億年後

the Earth is consumed by a large Sun,

地球會被太陽取代

and this is what's left.

這是所剩下的

So, a planet like us is going to have an age and an old age,

因行星就如我們有年輕和年老

and we are in its golden summer age right now.

而我們正處於它的黃金時期

But there's two fates to everything, isn't there?

但凡事都有兩面不是嗎?

Now, a lot of you are going to die of old age,

很多人都在年老時才去世

but some of you, horribly enough, are going to die in an accident.

但有些人,很慘,因他們是死於意外

And that's the fate of a planet, too.

這也是行星的命運

Earth, if we're lucky enough -- if it doesn't get hit by a Hale-Bopp,

如果我們夠幸運,在未來70億年內不被彗星Hale-Bopp

or gets blasted by some supernova nearby

或附近的超新星擊中

in the next seven billion years -- we'll find under your feet.

我們腳下的地球仍在

But what about accidental death?

但那意外性的死亡呢?

Well, paleontologists for the last 200 years

古生物學家在過去200年

have been charting death. It's strange --

不斷記錄死亡數據. 很奇怪

extinction as a concept wasn't even thought about

沒有人對絕種這概念有深入研究

until Baron Cuvier in France found this first mastodon.

直至法國的Baron Cuvier 發現第一隻乳齒象

He couldn't match it up to any bones on the planet,

他不能找到地球上找到相類似的骸骨

and he said, Aha! It's extinct.

所以他說:呀哈!這已經絕種

And very soon after, the fossil record started yielding

不久,化石記錄變得更齊全

a very good idea of how many plants and animals there have been

有一個很好的主意,估計多少種動植物

since complex life really began to leave

只從複雜的生命體開始留下

a very interesting fossil record.

一些很有趣的化石記錄

In that complex record of fossils,

在這齊全的化石記錄

there were times when lots of stuff

發現有很多物種

seemed to be dying out very quickly,

很快便全部死亡

and the father/mother geologists

地質學家"之父"或"之母"

called these "mass extinctions."

稱此為"大滅絕"

All along it was thought to be either an act of God

有人猜想這可能是神的作為

or perhaps long, slow climate change,

或許是更漫長的氣候變化

and that really changed in 1980,

直到1980年有了改變

in this rocky outcrop near Gubbio,

在古比奧附近的岩石面

where Walter Alvarez, trying to figure out

Walter Alvarez希望在這裡弄清楚

what was the time difference between these white rocks,

這些白色的岩石是出現在那個時期

which held creatures of the Cretaceous period,

那些岩石是白堊時期

and the pink rocks above, which held Tertiary fossils.

有些粉色的是第三紀化石.

How long did it take to go from one system to the next?

從一個時期到另一個需要多長時間?

And what they found was something unexpected.

他們發現一些意料之外的事

They found in this gap, in between, a very thin clay layer,

他們發現有一個隙縫中有一層很薄的黏土層

and that clay layer -- this very thin red layer here --

那黏土層有一層很薄的紅色表層

is filled with iridium.

裡面充滿銥

And not just iridium; it's filled with glassy spherules,

不單止銥; 還有玻璃球粒

and it's filled with quartz grains

和石英顆粒

that have been subjected to enormous pressure: shock quartz.

曾遭受很大的壓力壓下去:撞擊石英

Now, in this slide the white is chalk,

在這投影片白色的部分是白堊

and this chalk was deposited in a warm ocean.

白堊是在溫暖的海洋沈澱

The chalk itself's composed by plankton

由浮游生物組成

which has fallen down from the sea surface onto the sea floor,

浮游生物由海面沉到海底

so that 90 percent of the sediment here is skeleton of living stuff,

所以有九成的沈積物是生物的骸骨

and then you have that millimeter-thick red layer,

你們看見幾毫米厚的紅色層

and then you have black rock.

然後是黑色的石頭

And the black rock is the sediment on the sea bottom

黑石頭是海藏的沉積物

in the absence of plankton.

並沒有浮游生物

And that's what happens in an asteroid catastrophe,

小行星撞擊地球時,

because that's what this was, of course. This is the famous K-T.

就是因為這事,當然就是著名的K-T

A 10-kilometer body hit the planet.

一個十公里大的星體撞擊行星.

The effects of it spread this very thin impact layer all over the planet,

這現象導致全個行星蒙一層薄薄的土層

and we had very quickly the death of the dinosaurs,

之後恐龍開始死亡

the death of these beautiful ammonites,

還有這些美麗的鸚鵡螺化石

Leconteiceras here, and Celaeceras over here,

這是Leconteiceras,那是Celaeceras(兩者都是化石的一種)

and so much else.

還有很多

I mean, it must be true,

我意思是,這肯定是真的

because we've had two Hollywood blockbusters since that time,

因從那時起荷里活有兩套風靡一時的電影

and this paradigm, from 1980 to about 2000,

這例子在1980 至2000年期間

totally changed how we geologists thought about catastrophes.

完全改變了地質學家對行星撞擊的想法

Prior to that, uniformitarianism was the dominant paradigm:

之前均變說是主要的學說:

the fact that if anything happens on the planet in the past,

事實是如果行星以前發生了什麼事

there are present-day processes that will explain it.

都會成為當代的理論

But we haven't witnessed a big asteroid impact,

但我們沒有親眼目睹一個大的小行星撞擊的影響

so this is a type of neo-catastrophism,

這是新災變論其中一種

and it took about 20 years for the scientific establishment

科學家用了20年的時間才能

to finally come to grips: yes, we were hit;

確定:是, 地球曾被撞擊

and yes, the effects of that hit caused a major mass extinction.

而這撞擊導致大滅絕

Well, there are five major mass extinctions

一共有五次主要的大滅絕

over the last 500 million years, called the Big Five.

在過去的五億年, 它們被稱為 Big Five (大五)

They range from 450 million years ago

由4.5億年前

to the last, the K-T, number four,

到最後, K-T, 第四個

but the biggest of all was the P, or the Permian extinction,

但最嚴重是P, 或作二疊紀滅絕

sometimes called the mother of all mass extinctions.

有時被稱為大滅絕之母

And every one of these has been subsequently blamed

而每次大滅絕也歸咎於

on large-body impact.

龐大行星帶來的影響

But is this true?

但是否屬實?

The most recent, the Permian, was thought to have been an impact

最近二疊紀滅絕有個影響

because of this beautiful structure on the right.

因這右面美麗的生物

This is a Buckminsterfullerene, a carbon-60.

這是巴克敏斯特富勒烯,碳60的一種

Because it looks like those terrible geodesic domes

因它看來像我60年代心愛的

of my late beloved '60s,

網狀球頂

they're called "buckyballs."

他們叫作巴克球

This evidence was used to suggest

這證據通常指出

that at the end of the Permian, 250 million years ago, a comet hit us.

在二疊紀的後期,2500萬年, 一顆彗星打中地球

And when the comet hits, the pressure produces the buckyballs,

當彗星撞擊地球,壓力產生巴克球

and it captures bits of the comet.

它捉住了少許彗星的尾巴

Helium-3: very rare on the surface of the Earth, very common in space.

氦-3:在地球上很罕有,在太空卻常見

But is this true?

但是否屬實?

In 1990, working on the K-T extinction for 10 years,

1990年,用了十年鑽研K-T 絕種

I moved to South Africa to begin work twice a year

一年兩次我會搬到南非卡魯沙漠

in the great Karoo desert.

工作

I was so lucky to watch the change of that South Africa

我很幸運能看到南非轉變

into the new South Africa as I went year by year.

成一個新的南非因我每年都去

And I worked on this Permian extinction,

我研究二疊紀絕種

camping by this Boer graveyard for months at a time.

在波爾墓地露宿了幾個月

And the fossils are extraordinary.

那裡的化石很特別

You know, you're gazing upon your very distant ancestors.

你知道嗎,你在注視著遙遠的祖先

These are mammal-like reptiles.

他們都是類似哺乳動物的爬蟲

They are culturally invisible. We do not make movies about these.

他們的文化已消失了, 所以我們不能拍有關他們的電影

This is a Gorgonopsian, or a Gorgon.

這是Gorgonopsian (一種爬行動物),也叫Gorgon

That's an 18-inch long skull of an animal

這是一隻動物18寸長的頭骨

that was probably seven or eight feet, sprawled like a lizard,

大概7-8尺, 四肢爬起來像一隻蜥蜴

probably had a head like a lion.

大概頭像獅子

This is the top carnivore, the T-Rex of its time.

這是頂級食肉動物, 在那時期是T-Rex

But there's lots of stuff.

但還有很多東西

This is my poor son, Patrick.

這是我可憐的兒子 Patrick

(Laughter)

(眾笑)

This is called paleontological child abuse.

這叫作古生物式的兒童虐待

Hold still, you're the scale.

別動, 你要作標準尺

(Laughter)

(眾笑)

There was big stuff back then.

後面還有很多

Fifty-five species of mammal-like reptiles.

55種類似哺乳動物的爬蟲

The age of mammals had well and truly started

哺乳動物時代已經開始

250 million years ago ...

由2500萬年前開始

... and then a catastrophe happened.

然後有一個災難發生

And what happens next is the age of dinosaurs.

接著是恐龍時代

It was all a mistake; it should have never happened. But it did.

這完全是一個錯失, 事情不應這樣發生,卻發生了

Now, luckily,

幸運地

this Thrinaxodon, the size of a robin egg here:

這蛇頸龍,羅賓蛋的體積

this is a skull I've discovered just before taking this picture --

在拍照前我發現這骸骨

there's a pen for scale; it's really tiny --

這鉛筆作比較,可見它很細小

this is in the Lower Triassic, after the mass extinction has finished.

這是下三疊統,大滅絕之後結束

You can see the eye socket and you can see the little teeth in the front.

你可以見到眼窩和前面的小牙齒

If that does not survive, I'm not the thing giving this talk.

如果這沒生存過,今天我不會在此分享

Something else is, because if that doesn't survive, we are not here;

另一點是,如果它沒有生存過,我們不會在此

there are no mammals. It's that close; one species ekes through.

這裡不會有哺乳動物, 很近, 一個物種之隔

Well, can we say anything about the pattern of who survives and who doesn't?

那我們可以說有一個模式決定誰生存嗎?

Here's sort of the end of that 10 years of work.

這差不多十年的工作

The ranges of stuff -- the red line is the mass extinction.

還有其他--紅色線代表大滅絕

But we've got survivors and things that get through,

但我們發現有大滅絕的生還者

and it turns out the things that get through preferentially are cold bloods.

其中優先生還都是冷血動物

Warm-blooded animals take a huge hit at this time.

恒溫的動物卻無法生存

The survivors that do get through

能經過大滅絕的生還者

produce this world of crocodile-like creatures.

繁殖了類似鱷魚的生物

There's no dinosaurs yet; just this slow, saurian, scaly, nasty,

未有恐龍,只有這種又慢又蜥蜴狀的又有鱗又惡心的

swampy place with a couple of tiny mammals hiding in the fringes.

沼澤地方有些細小的哺乳動物在邊緣之間躲藏著

And there they would hide for 160 million years,

牠們能躲藏1600萬年

until liberated by that K-T asteroid.

直至K-T小行星幫牠們擺脫約束

So, if not impact, what?

如果不是影響,是什麼?

And the what, I think, is that we returned, over and over again,

我想我們會不斷重複又重複經歷

to the Pre-Cambrian world, that first microbial age,

前寒武紀, 第一個微生物時代

and the microbes are still out there.

微生物還存在

They hate we animals.

它們討厭我們這些動物

They really want their world back.

它們很想要回自己的地方

And they've tried over and over and over again.

而它們也不斷不斷地嘗試

This suggests to me that life causing these mass extinctions

這提起我導致大滅絕的生命

because it did is inherently anti-Gaian.

因這是反生態的固有天性

This whole Gaia idea, that life makes the world better for itself --

這個生態主意,是生命會改變環境使它們更適應

anybody been on a freeway on a Friday afternoon in Los Angeles

有無人星期五下在洛杉磯的高速公路上

believing in the Gaia theory? No.

相信生態主意?沒有

So, I really suspect there's an alternative,

所以我懷疑有另一種可能性

and that life does actually try to do itself in --

生命真的有嘗試自己做

not consciously, but just because it does.

不是有意識地,只是它確實如此

And here's the weapon, it seems, that it did so over the last 500 million years.

這個是武器,好像有5億年歷史

There are microbes which, through their metabolism,

微生物會透過新陳代謝

produce hydrogen sulfide,

生產硫化氫

and they do so in large amounts.

它們能大量生產

Hydrogen sulfide is very fatal to we humans.

硫化氫對人類是致命的

As small as 200 parts per million will kill you.

只需每百萬分之200就可以殺死你

You only have to go to the Black Sea and a few other places -- some lakes --

你只需要去黑海和一些湖

and get down, and you'll find that the water itself turns purple.

然後落水,便會發現水變成紫色

It turns purple from the presence of numerous microbes

因大量的微生物存在而變成紫色

which have to have sunlight and have to have hydrogen sulfide,

但首先需要陽光和硫化氫

and we can detect their presence today -- we can see them --

今天我們仍能察覺它們, 我們能看見它們

but we can also detect their presence in the past.

我們也能察覺以前的它們

And the last three years have seen

前三年

an enormous breakthrough in a brand-new field.

在全新的領域上有一個重大的突破

I am almost extinct --

我差不多絕種

I'm a paleontologist who collects fossils.

我是一個搜集化石的古生物學者

But the new wave of paleontologists -- my graduate students --

但新的古生物學者浪潮, 我已畢業的學生

collect biomarkers.

搜集生物標誌物

They take the sediment itself, they extract the oil from it,

他們拿了沉澱物,把裡面的油提煉出來

and from that they can produce compounds

然後再製成複合物

which turn out to be very specific to particular microbial groups.

這複合物對某些微生物是很特別

It's because lipids are so tough, they can get preserved in sediment

因脂質很硬,能保存在沉澱物中

and last the hundreds of millions of years necessary,

如有需要能保存過千萬年

and be extracted and tell us who was there.

再被我們提煉出來

And we know who was there. At the end of the Permian,

我們知道誰曾在那裡.二疊紀的最後期

at many of these mass extinction boundaries,

有很多類似的大滅絕界限裡

this is what we find: isorenieratene. It's very specific.

找到: isorenieratene (化學物的一種),它很獨特

It can only occur if the surface of the ocean has no oxygen,

它只能出現在沒有氧氣的海洋

and is totally saturated with hydrogen sulfide --

它完全被硫化氫飽和

enough, for instance, to come out of solution.

足夠的份量,例如,便會分解

This led Lee Kump, and others from Penn State and my group,

這是李·孔普, 其他人從賓夕法尼亞州立大學和我那隊

to propose what I call the Kump Hypothesis:

提出我名為孔普假設

many of the mass extinctions were caused by lowering oxygen,

很多大滅絕都是因氧氣含量下降

by high CO2. And the worst effect of global warming, it turns out:

二氧化碳含量上升.最慘是全球暖化導致:

hydrogen sulfide being produced out of the oceans.

硫化氫不斷在海洋裡產生

Well, what's the source of this?

源頭在那裡?

In this particular case, the source over and over has been flood basalts.

這事的源頭都是洪水玄武岩

This is a view of the Earth now, if we extract a lot of it.

這是地球,如果我們提取從地球很多

And each of these looks like a hydrogen bomb;

每個都像氫氣炸彈

actually, the effects are even worse.

其實,影響更加差

This is when deep-Earth material comes to the surface,

因當地球深層的物質移到表層

spreads out over the surface of the planet.

就能廣散到行星的表面

Well, it's not the lava that kills anything,

不是熔岩殺死生物

it's the carbon dioxide that comes out with it.

而是從熔岩出來的二氧化碳

This isn't Volvos; this is volcanoes.

這是火山

But carbon dioxide is carbon dioxide.

二氧化碳怎樣也是二氧化碳

So, these are new data Rob Berner and I -- from Yale -- put together,

這些新數據是我和Rob Berner 從耶魯裡放在一起

and what we try to do now is

現在我們試著

track the amount of carbon dioxide in the entire rock record --

記錄二氧化碳在全部石頭裡的含量

and we can do this from a variety of means --

我們可以用不同的方法

and put all the red lines here,

把紅色的線放在一起

when these -- what I call greenhouse mass extinctions -- took place.

這就是我說溫室大滅絕發生的時刻

And there's two things that are really evident here to me,

有兩樣對我來說是很可信的證據

is that these extinctions take place when CO2 is going up.

一是這絕種發生在二氧化碳含量上升時

But the second thing that's not shown on here:

第二樣未能在這裡顯示:

the Earth has never had any ice on it

地球上完全沒有冰

when we've had 1,000 parts per million CO2.

當有每百萬分之1000的二氧化碳

We are at 380 and climbing.

我們現在在380的水平,水平在上升

We should be up to a thousand in three centuries at the most,

我們在三個世紀便能升到1000的水平

but my friend David Battisti in Seattle says he thinks a 100 years.

但我在西雅圖的朋友David Battisti 認為只需100年

So, there goes the ice caps,

接著是冰冠

and there comes 240 feet of sea level rise.

如果水平線上升240呎

I live in a view house now;

我的屋外有境觀

I'm going to have waterfront.

我將會看到海旁區

All right, what's the consequence? The oceans probably turn purple.

好,但結果是?海洋會變成紫色

And we think this is the reason that complexity took so long

我們以為這原因太複雜需要

to take place on planet Earth.

很長時間才會在地球上發生

We had these hydrogen sulfide oceans for a very great long period.

我們有這些硫化氫的海洋已經很長時間

They stop complex life from existing.

它們讓複雜的生命不再存在

We know hydrogen sulfide is erupting presently a few places on the planet.

我們知道硫化氫正在侵蝕地球幾處地方

And I throw this slide in -- this is me, actually, two months ago --

我插入這投影片--這是兩個月前的我--

and I throw this slide in because here is my favorite animal, chambered nautilus.

我放這投影片因是有我最喜歡的動物,鸚鵡螺

It's been on this planet since the animals first started -- 500 million years.

它從5億年前就在在行星上

This is a tracking experiment, and any of you scuba divers,

這是一個追蹤實驗, 有無人是潛水員

if you want to get involved in one of the coolest projects ever,

如因你想參與最酷的計劃

this is off the Great Barrier Reef.

你就要到大堡礁

And as we speak now,

當我們在聊天

these nautilus are tracking out their behaviors to us.

我們也在追蹤鸚鵡螺的行為

But the thing about this is that every once in a while

但是每隔一段時間

we divers can run into trouble,

潛水員便會遇到麻煩

so I'm going to do a little thought experiment here.

所以我想現在做一些思想性實驗

This is a Great White Shark that ate some of my traps.

這是一條大白鯊吃掉我的魚餌

We pulled it up; up it comes. So, it's out there with me at night.

我們拉它上來,它便來,到晚上便與我一起

So, I'm swimming along, and it takes off my leg.

我在游泳,它咬掉我的腿

I'm 80 miles from shore, what's going to happen to me?

我離岸80哩,我可以怎樣做?

Well now, I die.

這樣的話我死定了

Five years from now, this is what I hope happens to me:

五年後, 我希望會發生在我身上:

I'm taken back to the boat, I'm given a gas mask:

我被帶回船上, 有人給我面罩

80 parts per million hydrogen sulfide.

千萬分之80的硫化氫

I'm then thrown in an ice pond, I'm cooled 15 degrees lower

我被丟到冰湖,我的體溫降了15度

and I could be taken to a critical care hospital.

我應該被帶到特級護理的醫院

And the reason I could do that is because we mammals

我能這樣做是因我們哺乳動物

have gone through a series of these hydrogen sulfide events,

已經經歷過一連串硫化氫的事件

and our bodies have adapted.

我們的身體已經適應

And we can now use this as what I think will be a major medical breakthrough.

這例子我認為可作為醫學上的大突破

This is Mark Roth. He was funded by DARPA.

他是Mark Roth,受DARPA贊助

Tried to figure out how to save Americans after battlefield injuries.

想辦法救受戰傷的美國人

He bleeds out pigs.

他幫豬放血

He puts in 80 parts per million hydrogen sulfide --

再灌入千萬分之八十的硫化氫--

the same stuff that survived these past mass extinctions --

就是與以前大滅絕生還的東西一樣--

and he turns a mammal into a reptile.

他由哺乳動物變成爬蟲類

"I believe we are seeing in this response the result of mammals and reptiles

"我相信這反應是哺乳動物和爬蟲類

having undergone a series of exposures to H2S."

經過一連串在H2S暴露的結果"

I got this email from him two years ago;

我兩年前收到他的電郵

he said, "I think I've got an answer to some of your questions."

他說"我想你的問題我有了答案"

So, he now has taken mice down

所以他現在用老鼠作實驗

for as many as four hours, sometimes six hours,

一試就4小時,有時甚至6小時

and these are brand-new data he sent me on the way over here.

於是有全新數據傳送給我

On the top, now, that is a temperature record of a mouse who has gone through --

最上面,是一隻老鼠的溫度記錄,經過

the dotted line, the temperatures.

虛線,溫度

So, the temperature starts at 25 centigrade,

溫度由攝氏25度開始

and down it goes, down it goes.

不斷下降

Six hours later, up goes the temperature.

6小時後,溫度上升

Now, the same mouse is given 80 parts per million hydrogen sulfide

同一隻老鼠現在給牠千萬分之八十的硫化氫

in this solid graph,

在這固體圖

and look what happens to its temperature.

看溫度的轉變

Its temperature drops.

牠的體溫下降

It goes down to 15 degrees centigrade from 35,

由35度下降到15度

and comes out of this perfectly fine.

但完全無事

Here is a way we can get people to critical care.

這就是我們帶人到特級護理

Here's how we can bring people cold enough to last till we get critical care.

這也是如何使人凍到要帶入特級護理的時候

Now, you're all thinking, yeah, what about the brain tissue?

你們全在想,對,那腦細胞呢?

And so this is one of the great challenges that is going to happen.

這是最富挑戰性

You're in an accident. You've got two choices:

你在一個意外. 你有兩個選擇:

you're going to die, or you're going to take the hydrogen sulfide

你就快死或你就快要吸入硫化氫

and, say, 75 percent of you is saved, mentally.

當中75%生還,只是精神上

What are you going to do?

那你怎樣辦?

Do we all have to have a little button saying, Let me die?

那我們可能要有個按鈕說:讓我死?

This is coming towards us,

這正朝著我們

and I think this is going to be a revolution.

我想這會是一塲革命

We're going to save lives, but there's going to be a cost to it.

我們要拯救生命,但這是在代價的

The new view of mass extinctions is, yes, we were hit,

這是大滅絕的一個新觀點,對,我們被撞中

and, yes, we have to think about the long term,

對,我們要向長遠方向想

because we will get hit again.

因我們可能再被撞中

But there's a far worse danger confronting us.

但我們面對著更危險的事

We can easily go back to the hydrogen sulfide world.

我們很容易回到硫化氫的世界

Give us a few millennia --

給我們幾千年 -

and we humans should last those few millennia --

我們人類應該可活多幾千年 --

will it happen again? If we continue, it'll happen again.

會再發生嗎?如果我們繼續,它會再次發生

How many of us flew here?

有多少人在這裡?

How many of us have gone through

在這有多少人經歷迥

our entire Kyoto quota

整過京都配額

just for flying this year?

只是今年飛行?

How many of you have exceeded it? Yeah, I've certainly exceeded it.

有多少人已經超過? 我就一定已經超過

We have a huge problem facing us as a species.

我們作為一個物種正面對很大的難題

We have to beat this.

我們要擊敗它

I want to be able to go back to this reef. Thank you.

我希望能夠回到這珊瑚礁. 多謝

(Applause)

(掌聲)

Chris Anderson: I've just got one question for you, Peter.

克里斯安德森 (CA): 我有條問題給你,彼得

Am I understanding you right, that what you're saying here

我是否理解正確,你是說

is that we have in our own bodies

我們體內

a biochemical response to hydrogen sulfide

對硫化氫有生化反應

that in your mind proves that there have been past mass extinctions

你的思想證明以前的大滅絕

due to climate change?

都是因氣候變化而形成?

Peter Ward: Yeah, every single cell in us

彼得沃德(PW):對，我們每個細胞

can produce minute quantities of hydrogen sulfide in great crises.

在遇到大危機時都能產生一定數量的硫化氫

This is what Roth has found out.

這是羅斯所找到的

So, what we're looking at now: does it leave a signal?

所以現在我們要探究：它有無剩下一個？

Does it leave a signal in bone or in plant?

它有無剩下一個在骨頭裡或植物裡?

And we go back to the fossil record and we could try to detect

當我們看化石報告,我們嘗試偵測

how many of these have happened in the past.

有多少發生在在以前

CA: It's simultaneously

CA: 同時

an incredible medical technique, but also a terrifying ...

這是令人難以置信的醫學技術,卻又好可怕

PW: Blessing and curse.

PW: 是福又是禍