Jamie Drummond: Let's crowd-source the world's goals

63,713 views ・ 2012-07-17

TED


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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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翻译人员: Yu-Sheng Lin 校对人员: Ricki Xie
00:16
So let me start by taking you back,
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请允我带你们回到过去开始,
00:19
back into the mists of your memory
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回到你记忆的迷雾里,
00:21
to perhaps the most anticipated year in your life,
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也许那是你生命中最值得期待的一年,
00:25
but certainly the most anticipated year
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而的确这也是人类历史上
00:28
in all human history:
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最值得期待的一年
00:29
the year 2000. Remember that?
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2000年,记得么?
00:32
Y2K, the dotcom bubble,
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千禧病毒,互联网泡沫
00:36
stressing about whose party you're going to go to
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当接近午夜的时候
00:38
as the clock strikes midnight,
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在香槟走味之前
00:41
before the champagne goes flat,
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你还在为应该参加谁的派对而烦恼
00:43
and then there's that inchoate yearning
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当然,也有与最初的向往的落差
00:46
that was felt, I think, by many, that the millennium,
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很多人觉得,千禧年
00:49
that the year 2000, should mean more,
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2000年,应该有更多的意义
00:52
more than just a two and some zeroes.
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比一个2和几个0有更多的意义
00:55
Well, amazingly, for once, our world leaders
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令人惊叹的是,这个世界的领导者们
00:59
actually lived up to that millennium moment
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这一次并没有辜负这个千年一次的时刻
01:01
and back in 2000 agreed to some
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在2000年的时候,他们在一些非凡的东西上
01:03
pretty extraordinary stuff:
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达成一致
01:06
visionary, measurable, long-term targets
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富有长远意义的,可测量的,长期的目标
01:09
called the Millennium Development Goals.
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被称为 “千年发展目标”
01:12
Now, I'm sure you all keep a copy of the goals
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我相信你们都有把这份计划
01:14
under your pillow, or by the bedside table,
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放在枕头下,或者床头柜下
01:17
but just in case you don't,
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不过假若你没有
01:19
and your memory needs some jogging,
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或者你需要一些提醒
01:21
the deal agreed then goes like this:
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这些同意的条款是:
01:24
developing countries promised to at least halve
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发展中国家在2015年前保证至少减少一半的
01:26
extreme poverty, hunger and deaths from disease,
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赤贫,饥饿和疾病的死亡数目
01:30
alongside some other targets, by 2015,
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还有一些其他的目标:在2015年之前
01:32
and developed nations promised to help them
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发达国家将减少债权
01:35
get that done by dropping debts,
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改为增加有力的帮助和贸易改革
01:38
increasing smart aid, and trade reform.
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来帮助他们
01:40
Well, we're approaching 2015,
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现在快到2015了
01:43
so we'd better assess, how are we doing on these goals?
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所以我们最好来评估一下,这些目标完成的怎么样了?
01:45
But we've also got to decide, do we like such global goals?
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而且我们还要决定,我们是否喜欢这些目标?
01:49
Some people don't. And if we like them, we've got to decide
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有些人不喜欢。如果我们认可某些目标,我们要决定
01:52
what we want to do on these goals going forward.
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从此以后如何处理这些目标
01:56
What does the world want to do together?
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这个世界要一起做些什么?
01:58
We've got to decide a process by which we decide.
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我们要给既定的目标做出计划
02:00
Well, I definitely think these goals are worth building on
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当然,我认为继续完善和深入了解这些目标是值得的
02:03
and seeing through, and here's just a few reasons why.
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我这么说的原因有许多
02:07
Incredible partnerships between the private sector,
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发展中国家的令人难以置信的
02:10
political leaders, philanthropists
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于私营部门之间的伙伴关系:
02:12
and amazing grassroots activists
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政治领袖,慈善家
02:14
across the developing world,
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和那些杰出的基层活动者
02:16
but also 250,000 people marched in the streets
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还因为那些曾经在这座建筑物外,
02:21
of Edinburgh outside this very building
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在爱丁堡街上为“让贫穷成为历史”
02:23
for Make Poverty History.
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游行的25万人。
02:24
All together, they achieved these results:
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这些人一起取得这些成果:
02:27
increased the number of people on anti-retrovirals,
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增加了使用抗逆转录病毒药物,
02:30
life-saving anti-AIDS drugs;
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拯救生命的抗艾滋病药物的人数;
02:32
nearly halved deaths from malaria;
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几乎减半了疟疾的死亡人数
02:35
vaccinated so many that 5.4 million lives will be saved.
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用接种疫苗保护了540万人的生命
02:40
And combined, this is going to result
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这些加在一起,
02:42
in two million fewer children dying every year,
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与2000年相比,
02:45
last year, than in the year 2000.
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每年使得两百万儿童免于死亡。
02:47
That's 5,000 fewer kids dying every day,
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这等于每天有五千个孩子免于死亡,
02:50
ten times you lot not dead every day,
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正是因为这些合作,
02:54
because of all of these partnerships.
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帮助与在座人数相比的十倍人口免于死亡。
02:56
So I think this is amazing living proof of progress
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因此我认为,更多的人应该知道
02:59
that more people should know about,
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这些惊人的进展
03:01
but the challenge of communicating this kind of good news
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但是如何来传达这些好消息的途径,
03:03
is probably the subject of a different TEDTalk.
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就不是这里我想要细讲的了,
03:06
Anyway, for now, anyone involved in getting these results,
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不管怎样,感谢帮助取得这些成果的人。
03:09
thank you. I think this proved these goals are worth it.
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不仅证明了这些目标是有价值的。
03:12
But there's still a lot of unfinished business.
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但仍然,还有很多未完成的事业。
03:15
Still, 7.6 million children die every year of preventable,
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每年依旧有760万儿童死于能预防的,
03:19
treatable diseases,
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治愈的疾病,
03:21
and 178 million kids are malnourished
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一亿七千八百万儿童由于营养不良
03:24
to the point of stunting, a horrible term
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而发育迟缓,这意味着可怕的
03:25
which means physical and cognitive lifelong impairment.
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身体和认知能力的终身障碍。
03:29
So there's plainly a lot more to do on the goals we've got.
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由此看来,既定目标上显然还是有很多要做的事情。
03:32
But then, a lot of people think there are things
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但是与此同时,很多人认为那些
03:35
that should have been in the original package
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没有达成共识的,本来应该被包含在计划之内的目标
03:37
that weren't agreed back then that should now be included,
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应该在现在添加,
03:39
like sustainable development targets,
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比如可持续发展目标,
03:41
natural resource governance targets,
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自然资源治理目标,
03:44
access to opportunity, to knowledge,
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机会和知识的使用权利,
03:46
equity, fighting corruption.
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平等及对抗腐败。
03:48
All of this is measurable and could be in the new goals.
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这一切都是可以衡量的,并可能成为新的目标。
03:51
But the key thing here is,
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关键是,
03:53
what do you think should be in the new goals?
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你认为新的目标里应该有什么?
03:55
What do you want?
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你想要什么?
03:57
Are you annoyed that I didn't talk about gender equality
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你有没有对我没有提及
03:59
or education?
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男女平等或者教育而不满?
04:01
Should those be in the new package of goals?
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这些应该被加入到新的目标里么?
04:03
And quite frankly, that's a good question,
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非常坦白的说,这是一个很好的问题,
04:05
but there's going to be some tough tradeoffs
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但是这里会有一些艰难的权衡
04:07
and choices here, so you want to hope
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和选择,所以你会希望
04:09
that the process by which the world decides
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这个世界决定新的目标的过程
04:11
these new goals is going to be legitimate, right?
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应该是合理的,对吧?
04:14
Well, as we gather here in Edinburgh,
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那么,我们聚集在爱丁堡,
04:16
technocrats appointed by the U.N. and certain governments,
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这些由联合国和某些政府任命的技术官员,
04:19
with the best intentions, are busying themselves
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带着最好的意图,都在忙于
04:22
designing a new package of goals,
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设计这些新的计划
04:24
and currently they're doing that through pretty much the same old
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而且现在他们依旧通过旧的,20世纪末,自上而下
04:28
late-20th-century, top-down, elite, closed process.
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由精英组成,封闭的过程来设计这些计划。
04:31
But, of course, since then, the Web and mobile telephony,
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但是,当然从那时起,网络和移动电话,
04:35
along with ubiquitous reality TV formats
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加上无处不在的直播电视形式
04:38
have spread all around the world.
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已经传播到整个世界。
04:40
So what we'd like to propose is that we use them
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所以我们建议运用这些技术
04:43
to involve people from all around the world
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来让来自世界各地的人们参与到
04:46
in an historic first: the world's first truly global
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这个历史上第一次:全世界上第一次真正意义上的
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poll and consultation, where everyone everywhere
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全球投票和协商,来自不同地方的每个人
04:53
has an equal voice for the very first time.
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都有平等的发言权。
04:56
I mean, wouldn't it be a huge historic missed opportunity
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我的意思是,由于我们有这样的能力,
05:00
not to do this, given that we can?
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如果我们不去做的话 岂不是错过了一个巨大的历史性机遇么?
05:03
There's hundreds of billions of your aid dollars at stake,
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这包括数十上亿的救援基金
05:08
tens of millions of lives, or deaths, at stake,
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数百万的生命危在旦夕,
05:11
and, I'd argue, the security and future
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还有,
05:14
of you and your family is also at stake.
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你和你家人的安全以及未来,也危在旦夕。
05:16
So, if you're with me, I'd say there's three essential steps
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所以,如果你同意我说的,那么实现这个众资的进程
05:20
in this crowdsourcing campaign:
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有这三个重要的步骤:
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collecting, connecting and committing.
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收集,连接和承诺。
05:25
So first of all, we've got to ground this campaign
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首先,我们必须
05:27
in core polling data.
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以资料调查做为基础核心
05:29
Let's go into every country that will let us in,
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让我们进入每一个愿意合作的国家
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ask 1,001 people what they want
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询问一千零一人
05:34
the new goals to be, making special efforts
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他们期望中的新目标是什么?
05:36
to reach the poorest, those without access
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特别是那些最贫穷的
05:38
to modern technology, and let's make sure that their views
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没有机会使用现代化科技的人
05:41
are at the center of the goals going forward.
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确保他们的想法成为这些未来目标的核心
05:44
Then, we've got to commission a baseline survey
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然后,通过调查来建立基线资料
05:48
to make sure we can monitor and progress the goals
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以确保我们可以监管这些目标
05:50
going forward. The original goals didn't really have
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并持续推进
05:52
good baseline survey data,
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先前设定的目标就没有具备合适的基线资料
05:54
and we're going to need the help of big data through all of this process to make sure
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在执行过程里,我们会需要这些海量的资料
05:58
we can really monitor the progress.
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以确认我们的监督进度
06:00
And then we've got to connect with the big crowd.
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接着,我们要把广大群众结合起来
06:03
Now here, we see the role for an unprecedented coalition
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现在,我看到空前的、非常庞大的群体合作
06:06
of social media giants and upstarts,
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包括社交媒体巨人、新兴企业
06:09
telecoms companies, reality TV show formats,
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电信公司、真人秀节目、游戏厂商等
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gaming companies, telecoms, all of them together
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全部结合在一起
06:17
in kind of their "We Are The World" moment.
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形成「同一个世界」的时刻
06:20
Could they come together and help
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他们是否能一起合作
06:22
the Millennium Development Goals get rebranded
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将「千​​年发展目标」
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into the Millennial Generation's Goals?
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转变为「千年世代的目标」?
06:28
And if just five percent of the five billion plus
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如果这些相连的五十亿人口中能有百分之五
06:31
who are currently connected made a comment,
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共同表达意见
06:34
and that comment turned into a commitment,
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并使这些意见变成承诺
06:37
we could crowdsource a force of 300 million people
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我们就可以集结这三亿人口的群体力量
06:40
around the world to help see these goals through.
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达成这些目标
06:43
If we have this collected data, and this connected crowd,
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如果我们拥有这些集合资料,和这群联结起来的民众
06:47
based upon our experience of campaigning
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依据我们过往的游说经验
06:48
and getting world leaders to commit,
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我们将可以使世界领袖们做出承诺
06:50
I think world leaders will commit
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我想世界领袖们
06:51
to most of the crowdsourced recommendations.
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愿意为这些群众建议做出承诺
06:54
But the question really is, through this process
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但真正的问题是,通过这些过程
06:56
will we all have become committed?
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我们大家也都为此承诺了吗?
06:59
And if we are, are we ready to iterate, monitor
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如果是,我们准备好去重复改进、监督
07:02
and provide feedback, make sure these promises
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和提供回覆
07:04
are really delivering results?
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以确保这些承诺会有成果吗?
07:06
Well, there's some fantastic examples here to scale up,
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这里有些很棒的实例,很适合扩大规模
07:10
mostly piloted within Africa, actually.
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这些大多是在非洲的做的试点项目
07:12
There's Open Data Kenya, which geocodes
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有一个叫做“肯亚开放数据”的网路平台
07:14
and crowdsources information about where projects are,
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由当地民众汇报讯息组成
07:17
are they delivering results.
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包括各项援助专案,运用在哪里,成果如何
07:19
Often, they're not in the right place.
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通常,援助资源没被用在最需要的地方
07:20
And Ushahidi, which means "witness" in Swahili,
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而Ushahidi这间公司(Swahili语,意为眼见为凭)
07:24
which geocodes and crowdsources information
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整理收集来的复杂紧急状况及地理位置讯息
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in complex emergencies to help target responses.
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并将帮助传达到目标的地方
07:30
This is some of the most exciting stuff
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这是发展和民主之中
07:33
in development and democracy,
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最令人兴奋的东西
07:35
where citizens on the edge of a network
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这些位于边陲地带的人们
07:37
are helping to force open the process
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都在协助强力开发这个进程
07:39
to make sure that the big global aid promises
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确保来自顶层的大规模全球援助承诺
07:42
and vague stuff up at the top really delivers for people
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能够确实被传递到居于底层人民
07:46
at a grassroots level and inverts that pyramid.
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基层逆转改变成了倒置的金字塔,
07:50
This openness, this forcing openness, is key,
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这种开放,这种强制性开放是关键
07:53
and if it wasn't entirely transparent already,
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如果这还不够完全的透明
07:56
I should be open: I've got a completely transparent agenda.
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我还要说:我还有完全透明的目的
08:01
Long-term trends suggest that this century
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根据长期的趋势
08:03
is going to be a tough place to live,
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这个世纪的生活环境将会更艰困
08:05
with population increases, consumption patterns increasing,
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人口增加、消费扩张
08:09
and conflict over scarce natural resources.
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争夺稀有的自然资源的冲突
08:13
And look at the state of global politics today.
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而回首今日的全球政局
08:16
Look at the Rio Earth Summit that happened just last week,
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比如上周才举行的里约地球高峰会
08:20
or the Mexican G20, also last week.
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还有同样上周举办的墨西哥G20会议
08:22
Both, if we're honest, a bust.
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这两者,老实说都是失败的
08:25
Our world leaders, our global politics,
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我们的世界领袖和全球政治
08:27
currently can't get it done.
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目前都无法把事做好
08:30
They need our help. They need the cavalry,
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他们需要我们的帮忙,他们需要援兵
08:33
and the cavalry's not going to come from Mars.
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而这援兵不会天外飞来
08:35
It's got to come from us, and I see this process
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是来自于我们
08:38
of deciding democratically in a bottom-up fashion
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我看到这种是由下至上的民主过程是重要的方式
08:41
what the world wants to work on together
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世界想要通力合作
08:44
as one vital means by which we can crowdsource
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要透过此,集合群众力量
08:47
the force to really build that constituency
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真正地在21世纪
08:51
that's going to reinvigorate global governance
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重振
08:53
in the 21st century.
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全球共同治理的计划
08:55
I started in 2000. Let me finish in 2030.
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从2000年开始,将在2030年结束
09:00
Many people made fun of a big campaign a few years ago
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几年前,很多人嘲弄一个称做
09:04
we had called Make Poverty History.
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「让贫穷走入历史」的大型运动
09:06
It was a naive thought in many people's minds,
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在很多人心里认为,那实在很天真
09:09
and it's true, it was just a t-shirt slogan
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这也是事实
09:12
that worked for the moment. But look.
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那不过是一句T恤上的标语罢了
09:15
The empirical condition of living under a dollar and 25
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但是,生活水平在1点25美元以下的人口已逐渐下降
09:19
is trending down, and look where it gets to by 2030.
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在2030年会达到什么水平?
09:22
It's getting near zero.
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它将几乎消失
09:25
Now sure, progress in China and India
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现在肯定的是,中国及印度的贫穷比例的降低
09:27
and poverty reduction there was key to that,
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将会是关键
09:29
but recently also in Africa, poverty rates are being reduced.
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最近,非洲的贫穷比率也在在降低
09:32
It will get harder as we get towards zero,
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然而数字越接近零,将越困难
09:35
as the poor will be increasingly located
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因为贫穷将持续出现在
09:37
in post-conflict, fragile states,
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战争过后、脆弱的地区
09:39
or maybe in middle income states
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或着在中等收入的国家
09:41
where they don't really care about the marginalized.
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那些没有注意到边缘化的人
09:44
But I'm confident, with the right kind of political campaigning
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但我有信心,藉由正确的政治运动
09:48
and creative and technological innovation combined
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和具有创造力和科技化的革新
09:51
working together more and more as one,
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一起运作,同心协力
09:54
I think we can get this and other goals done.
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我想我们可以达到我们目的甚至其他
09:57
Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢
10:00
(Applause)
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(掌声)
10:05
Chris Anderson: Jamie, here's the puzzle to me.
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(主持人) 杰米,我有个问题
10:07
If there was an incident today where a hundred kids
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如果今天有个事件
10:11
died in some tragedy or where, say, a hundred kids
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有一百名孩童死于某个悲剧的情况
10:15
were kidnapped and then rescued by special forces,
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也许有一百个孩子被绑架,然后被特警解救了
10:18
I mean, it would be all over the news for a week, right?
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我的意思是,它将会在新闻版面宣扬一整个礼拜,对吧?
10:21
You just put up, just as one of your numbers there,
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而你刚刚说
10:23
that 5,000 -- is that the number?
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其中一个数字是5000,没错吧?
10:27
Jamie Drummond: Fewer children every day.
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是指每天有5000名孩童免于死亡
10:29
CA: Five thousand fewer children dying every day.
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每天将有5000名孩童免于死亡
10:30
I mean, it dwarfs, dwarfs everything
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这很了不起,比任何实体的新闻事件更了不起
10:34
that is actually on our news agenda, and it's invisible.
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但这却没有人晓得
10:37
This must drive you crazy.
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而这一定让你气坏了
10:39
JD: It does, and we're having a huge debate in this country
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(讲者) 的确,而且我们还在争论援金规模的问题
10:42
about aid levels, for example, and aid alone is not
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例如,仅仅给金钱援助并不是完整的解决方式
10:44
the whole solution. Nobody thinks it is.
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没人会这么想
10:46
But, you know, if people saw the results of this smart aid,
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但你知道,如果人们看到这些明智援助的成果
10:51
I mean, they'd be going crazy for it.
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大家一定会为欣喜若狂
10:53
I wish the 250,000 people who really did march
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我多希望那25万在此前游行的人们
10:57
outside this very building knew these results.
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能知道这些成果
11:00
Right now they don't, and it would be great to find a way
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目前他们也许还并不晓得,而如果我们能够用有效的方式
11:03
to better communicate it, because we have not.
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善加传播这些成果那就再好不过了,但事实并非如此
11:05
Creatively, we've failed to communicate this success so far.
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目前为止,我们没能找到合适的方式去传播这些成功结果
11:09
If those kinds of efforts just could multiply their voice
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如果这些努力能够加以扩大传播出去
11:12
and amplify it at the key moments, I know for a fact
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在关键时刻更是大声放送
11:14
we'd get better policy.
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我相信这一定能产生更好的政策
11:16
The Mexican G20 need not have been a bust.
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墨西哥G20会议不该是个失败的会议
11:19
Rio, if anyone cares about the environment,
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在里约,如果有任何人真的关心环境
11:22
need not have been a bust, okay?
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会议也不会徒劳无功,对吧?
11:24
But these conferences are going on,
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但是这些会议的进行
11:26
and I know people get skeptical and cynical
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我知道人们会怀疑
11:27
about the big global summits and the promises
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并且嘲笑这些全球峰会
11:29
and their never being kept, but actually,
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以及他们从来没有兑现的承诺
11:31
the bits that are, are making a difference,
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但实际上,所有正在发生的件件小事都在做出他们的改变
11:33
and what the politicians need
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政治家们需要的
11:35
is more permission from the public.
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是大众的认可
11:37
CA: But you haven't fully worked out the Web mechanisms, etc.
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(主持人) 但是你并没有完全建成全套的网络机制
11:39
by which this might happen.
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来帮助这件事发生
11:41
I mean, if the people here who've had experience
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如果在场有对开放平台有经验的人才在,
11:43
using open platforms, you're interested to talk with them
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你将有兴趣和他们接触
11:46
this week and try to take this forward.
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继续进一步推动这项平台吧
11:48
JD: Absolutely. CA: All right, well I must say,
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(讲者) 当然会
11:50
if this conference led in some way
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(主持人) 我想说的是,如果这场会议帮助给这个想法一些进展
11:52
to advancing that idea, that's a huge idea,
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就非常了不起了
11:55
and if you carry that forward, that is really awesome,
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如果你的计划继续推进,真的会非常棒
11:58
so thank you. JD: I'd love your help.
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所以非常感谢你
11:59
CA: Thank you, thank you.
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(讲者) 感谢您的帮助
12:01
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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