George Whitesides: Toward a science of simplicity

48,499 views ・ 2010-04-29

TED


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翻译人员: zhao weichen 校对人员: Zhu Jie
00:18
Most of the talks
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大多数的演讲
00:20
that you've heard in the last several fabulous days
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你在前几天那些美妙的日子听到的
00:23
have been from people who have the characteristic
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都是来自一些很有特点的人
00:25
that they have thought about something,
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就是他们都已经思考过一些事
00:27
they are experts, they know what's going on.
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他们都是这方面的专家,他们知道这个领域的现状
00:31
All of you know about the topic
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你们都知道
00:33
that I'm supposed to talk about.
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今天我要谈的这个话题
00:35
That is, you know what simplicity is,
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的确,你知道简洁是什么
00:37
you know what complexity is.
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你也知道复杂是什么
00:39
The trouble is, I don't.
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问题是,我不知道
00:41
And what I'm going to do is share with you
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我接下来要做的就是和你们交流一下
00:43
my ignorance on this subject.
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我对这个话题不清楚的地方
00:46
I want you to read this,
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我希望你来读这些
00:48
because we're going to come back to it in a moment.
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因为我们过一会将重新回到这个问题上来
00:53
The quote is from
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这段引文来自
00:55
the fabled Potter Stewart
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传说中的Potter Stewart
00:59
opinion on pornography.
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关于色情文学的观点
01:02
And let me just read it,
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我来读一下
01:04
the important details here:
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重要的细节
01:06
"Shorthand description, ['hardcore pornography'];
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简化的描述,赤裸裸的色情
01:09
and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly defining it.
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可能我从来都不能给它下一个容易理解的定义。
01:12
But I know it when I see it."
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但是我一看见这句话我就明白它的意思
01:14
I'm going to come back to that in a moment.
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我们一会就会重新回到这里
01:17
So, what is simplicity?
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那,什么事简洁?
01:19
It's good to start with some examples.
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举一些例子作为开头可能会好一些。
01:22
A coffee cup -- we don't think about coffee cups,
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一个咖啡杯。我们不去想它们
01:25
but it's much more interesting than one might think --
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但是这可能比去想更有意义。
01:27
a coffee cup is a device,
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咖啡杯是个物件,是的
01:30
which has a container and a handle.
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它是一个容器,是的,还带一个把手,没错。
01:33
The handle enables you to hold it
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把手可以使你拿起它
01:36
when the container is filled with hot liquid.
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当咖啡杯里装满热的液体时,嗯~
01:39
Why is that important?
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为什么这很重要?
01:41
Well, it enables you to drink coffee.
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因为,这能让你喝咖啡。
01:43
But also, by the way, the coffee is hot,
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但是,提醒一下,咖啡是热的,
01:45
the liquid is sterile;
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液体是无菌的。
01:47
you're not likely to get cholera that way.
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这样你就不大可能会感染霍乱。
01:49
So the coffee cup, or the cup with a handle,
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所以咖啡杯,或者是一个有把手的杯子
01:52
is one of the tools used by society
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是被人类社会应用的一种工具
01:55
to maintain public health.
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来维护公众健康
01:57
Scissors are your clothes,
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剪刀成就你的衣服。
01:59
glasses enable you to see things
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眼镜让你看清东西
02:01
and keep you from being eaten by cheetahs
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防止你被猎豹吃掉
02:03
or run down by automobiles,
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或者被汽车撞到
02:05
and books are, after all, your education.
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最后,书籍,是你们的教育。
02:08
But there's another class of simple things,
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但是还有另外一类简单的东西
02:10
which are also very important.
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它们也很重要
02:12
Simple in function,
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在功能上很简单
02:14
but not at all simple in how they're constructed.
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但是它们的构造上上却一点都不简单。
02:17
And the two here are just examples.
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这里有两个例子
02:20
One is the cellphone, which we use every day.
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一个是手机,我们每天都用
02:23
And it rests on a complexity,
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它依赖于一个复杂系统
02:25
which has some characteristics
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有一些特性
02:27
very different from those that my friend
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与我朋友Benoit Mandelbrot
02:29
Benoit Mandelbrot discussed,
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说的非常的不同
02:31
but are very interesting.
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但是非常有趣
02:33
And the other, of course, is a birth control pill,
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另一个例子,当然,是避孕药
02:36
which, in a very simple way,
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一个非常简单的方式
02:38
fundamentally changed the structure of society
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它却从根本上改变了社会的结构
02:40
by changing the role of women in it
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通过改变女人在社会中的角色
02:43
by providing to them
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通过给她们提供
02:45
the opportunity to make reproductive choices.
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选择是否怀孕生子
02:50
So, there are two ways of thinking about this word, I think.
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我认为有两种方式来看待这个词
02:53
And here I've corrupted
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而且我在这里曲解
02:55
the Potter Stewart quotation
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Potter Stewart的引言
02:58
by saying that we can think about something --
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通过举例说我们可以想一些事情
03:00
which spans all the way from scissors
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一些从剪刀跨度
03:02
to the cell phone,
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到手机的各种方式
03:04
Internet and birth control pills --
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从网络到避孕药
03:06
by saying that they're simple,
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通过谈他们是简单的
03:09
the functions are simple,
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功能是简单的
03:11
and we recognize what that simplicity is
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然后我们认识到什么事简洁
03:13
when we see it.
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当我们看到的时候
03:15
Or there may be another way of doing it,
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又或,可能有另一种方式来解释
03:19
which is to think about the problem in terms of what --
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即根据什么来考虑这个问题
03:22
if you associate with moral philosophers --
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如果你与思想哲学家交往
03:25
is called the teapot problem.
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被称作茶壶问题
03:29
The teapot problem I'll pose this way.
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茶壶问题,我来解释一下
03:32
Suppose you see a teapot,
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假设你看见一个茶壶
03:34
and the teapot is
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并且这个茶壶
03:37
filled with hot water.
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装满了热水
03:39
And you then ask the question:
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然后你问了个问题
03:41
Why is the water hot?
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为什么水是热的?
03:43
And that's a simple question.
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这是个简单的问题
03:45
It's like, what is simplicity?
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就像:什么事简洁?
03:47
One answer would be:
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其中一个答案可能是
03:49
because the kinetic energy of the water molecules is high
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因为水分子的动能很高
03:51
and they bounce against things rapidly --
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使得他们之间迅速碰撞
03:53
that's a kind of physical science argument.
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这是个物理学要讨论的问题
03:56
A second argument would be:
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第二个答案可能是
03:58
because it was sitting on a stove with the flame on --
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因为它仍然在点着火的火炉上
04:01
that's an historical argument.
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那是个时间上的论点
04:03
A third is that I wanted hot water
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第三个解释是,我想要热水
04:05
for tea --
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来泡茶
04:07
that's an intentional argument.
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那是个内在意识的问题
04:09
And, since this is coming from a moral philosopher,
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然而,来自道德哲学家的答案
04:11
the fourth would be that it's part of God's plan for the universe.
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即第四可能是,那是上帝对宇宙计划的一部分
04:14
All of these are possibilities.
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所有的这些答案都是可能的
04:16
The point is that you get into trouble
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问题是,你陷入了麻烦
04:19
when you ask a single question
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当你问一个问题
04:21
with a single box for an answer,
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只能有一个答案
04:23
in which that single question actually is many questions
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然而这一个问题实际上是许多的问题
04:26
with quite different meanings,
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这些问题有不同的含义
04:28
but with the same words.
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却能用相同的文字描述
04:31
Asking, "What is simplicity?" I think falls in that category.
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问题,什么事简洁?我认为应归于类别范畴
04:35
What is the state of science?
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什么是科学的国度?
04:37
And, interestingly, complexity
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完整,复杂
04:39
is very highly evolved.
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是高端的进化
04:41
We have a lot of interesting information
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我们有很多关于复杂是什么的
04:43
about what complexity is.
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有趣信息
04:45
Simplicity, for reasons
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简洁,由于
04:47
that are a little bit obscure,
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它有些模糊
04:49
is almost not pursued,
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所以几乎不能达到
04:51
at least in the academic world.
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至少在学术界很难实现
04:53
We academics -- I am an academic --
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我们的一些学者--我也是学者
04:55
we love complexity.
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我们喜欢复杂
04:57
You can write papers about complexity,
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我们可以写关于复杂的论文
04:59
and the nice thing about complexity is
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关于复杂有趣的是
05:01
it's fundamentally intractable in many ways,
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在许多方面它从根本上难以把握
05:03
so you're not responsible for outcomes. (Laughter)
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因此,你不必为结果负责
05:06
Simplicity -- all of you really would like
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简洁---你们大家喜欢的
05:09
your Waring Blender in the morning
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早上你的搅拌机
05:11
to make whatever a Waring Blender does,
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来做搅拌机该做的
05:13
but not explode or play Beethoven.
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但绝不是爆炸或者演奏贝多芬曲目
05:16
You're not interested in the limits of these things.
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你对这些东西的局限性不感兴趣
05:19
So what one is interested in
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你感兴趣的是
05:21
has a lot to do with the rewards of the system.
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这个系统的许多好处
05:24
And there's a lot of rewards in thinking
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去思考一下
05:26
about complexity and emergence,
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复杂和紧急情况将会有很多好处
05:28
not so much in thinking about simplicity.
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而去想简单就没有那么什么好处
05:31
One of the things I want to do
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其中我想做的一件事是
05:33
is to help you with a very important task --
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是帮助你完成一项重要的工作
05:36
which you may not know that you have very often --
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这项工作你可能没有意识到呢经常做
05:39
which is to understand
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那就是理解
05:41
how to sit next to a physicist at a dinner party
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在晚宴中怎样坐在物理学家旁边
05:44
and have a conversation. (Laughter)
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怎样和他交谈
05:46
And the words that I would like you to focus on
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我想让你把焦点集中在这两个词上
05:49
are complexity and emergence,
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复杂 和紧急
05:51
because these will enable you to start the conversation
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因为它们会让你开始一段对话
05:54
and then daydream about other things.
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然后幻想其它事情
05:56
(Laughter)
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(笑)
05:59
All right, what is complexity in this view of things,
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好了,观察下这件事什么是复杂的?
06:02
and what is emergence?
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什么是紧急的?
06:04
We have, actually, a pretty good working definition of complexity.
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事实上我们已经有了一个很好的关于复杂的定义
06:07
It is a system, like traffic,
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它是一个系统,就像交通
06:09
which has components.
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有很多的组成部分
06:11
The components interact with one another.
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这些部分整合在一起形成一个整体
06:13
These are cars and drivers. They dissipate energy.
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有汽车和司机。他们消耗能量
06:16
It turns out that, whenever you have that system,
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结果是,无论何时,你拥有那个系统
06:18
weird stuff happens,
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奇怪的事情都会发生
06:20
and you in Los Angeles
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可能身处洛杉矶的你
06:22
probably know this better than anyone.
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知道这个比任何一个都好
06:25
Here's another example,
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这里还有个例子
06:27
which I put up because
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我举这个例子是因为
06:29
it's an example of really important current science.
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这是个现代科学中一个真实而重要的例子
06:32
You can't possibly read that. It's not intended that you read it,
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你不可能读过。你不会想去读。
06:35
but that's a tiny part
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但是这只是发生在体内
06:37
of the chemical reactions going on
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每个细胞中的化学反应的
06:39
in each of your cells at any given moment.
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一小部分
06:42
And it's like the traffic that you see.
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这就像你看到的交通
06:45
The amazing thing about the cell is that
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关于细胞让人不可思议的是
06:47
it actually does maintain a fairly stable
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它确确实实与其它细胞保持
06:49
working relationship with other cells,
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稳定的工作协同关系
06:52
but we don't know why.
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但是我们不知道原因
06:54
Anyone who tells you that we understand life,
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任何告诉你我们理解生命人
06:56
walk away.
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请走开
06:59
And let me reduce this to the simplest level.
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接着,让我把这件事降到最简单的水平
07:02
We've heard from Bill Gates recently.
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我们曾经收到Bill Gates 的来信
07:04
All of us, to some extent, study
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我们所有的人,在某种程度上,
07:06
this thing called a Bill Gates.
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学习Bill Gates
07:08
Terrific. You learn everything you can about that.
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非常好!你学习到了你能学到的东西
07:10
And then there's another kind of thing that you might study,
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然后又有一些其它方面的东西你可以学
07:13
and you study that hard.
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你努力的学习
07:15
That's a Bono, this is a Bono.
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那是Bono,这是Bono
07:17
But then, if you know everything you can know about those two things,
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但是然后,假如你了解了你可以了解的关于这两样东西的所有细节
07:20
and you put them together,
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又把他们总结在一起
07:22
what can you say about this combination?
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那么,你能对这种结合说些什么呢?
07:24
The answer is, not a lot.
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答案是:并不多!
07:26
And that's complexity.
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那就是复杂
07:28
Now, imagine building that up to a city, or to a society,
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现在,想象一下一个城市一个社会的建立
07:31
and you've got, obviously, an interesting problem.
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很明显,你发现了一个有趣的问题
07:34
All right, so let me give you an example
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好的,现在让我给你们举个
07:37
of simplicity
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简单的例子
07:39
of a particular kind.
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详细说明
07:41
And I want to introduce a word
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然后我想介绍一个词
07:43
that I think is very useful,
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我想这个词很有用
07:45
which is stacking.
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就是堆积
07:47
And I'm going to use stacking for a kind of simplicity
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我要简单的堆叠一下
07:50
that has the characteristic
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这是很典型的
07:52
that it is so simple
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它简单
07:54
and so reliable
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又可行
07:56
that I can build things with it.
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我可以用它来组合东西
07:58
Or I'm going to use simple to mean
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或者说我要用简单的东西来实现
08:00
reliable, predictable, repeatable.
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可靠性,可预言性和可重复性
08:05
And I'm going to use as an example the Internet,
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我想用一个例子,互联网
08:07
because it's a particularly good example
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因为它是个特别好的关于
08:09
of stacked simplicity.
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堆积简单的例子
08:12
We call it a complex system, which it is,
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我们就称之为复杂系统
08:14
but it's also something else.
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但是也意味着其它
08:17
The Internet starts with mathematics,
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互联网起始于数学
08:20
it starts with binary.
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起始于二进制法则
08:22
And if you look at the list of things on the bottom,
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如果你看下底部的菜单
08:25
we are familiar with the Arabic numbers
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有我们熟知的阿拉伯数字
08:27
one to 10 and so on.
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1到10等
08:29
In binary, one is 0001,
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在二进制中,1用001表示
08:32
seven is 0111.
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7用0111表示
08:35
The question is: Why is binary
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问题是:为什么二进制
08:37
simpler than Arabic?
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比阿拉伯数字简单?
08:39
And the answer is, simply,
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答案是,简单
08:41
that if I hold up three fingers, you can count that easily,
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如果你举起三个手指,你可以很容易的数清
08:44
but if I hold up this,
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但是如果你举起这个
08:46
it's sort of hard to say that I just did seven.
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就很难这是7
08:48
The virtue of binary is that it's the simplest possible way
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它的优点是这可能是表示数字
08:51
of representing numbers.
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最简单的方式
08:53
Anything else is more complicated.
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其它都是复杂的
08:55
You can catch errors with it,
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你可能会犯错
08:57
it's unambiguous in its reading,
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在读取时很模糊
08:59
there are lots of good things about binary.
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关于二进制还有很多好的方面
09:01
So it is very, very simple
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因此它非常非常简单
09:03
once you learn how to read it.
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只要你知道怎么去读
09:05
Now, if you like to represent
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现在如果你想表示
09:07
this zero and one of binary,
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一下二进制的和1
09:09
you need a device.
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你需要一个工具
09:11
And think of things in your life
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想象一下你生活中
09:13
that are binary,
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是用二进制表示的东西
09:15
one of them is light switches.
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其中一个是电灯开关
09:17
They can be on and off. That's binary.
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它们可以是开或关,这是二元的
09:19
Now wall switches, we all know, fail.
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我们都知道,墙体开关,会失败
09:23
But our friends who are condensed matter physicists
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但是我们的高分子物理学家朋友们
09:25
managed to come up, some 50 years ago,
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可以做到,在50多年前
09:28
with a very nice device, shown under that bell jar,
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用一种很好的设备,就是钟罩
09:31
which is a transistor.
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它是一种晶体管
09:33
A transistor is nothing more than a wall switch.
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晶体管于墙体开关没有区别
09:35
It turns things on and off,
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它也是开或关
09:37
but it does so without moving parts
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但是,它做到这一点不用动任何一部分
09:39
and it doesn't fail, basically, for a very long period of time.
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基本上,可以保持很长一段时间,不会失效
09:42
So the second layer of simplicity
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因此,第二简单的
09:45
was the transistor in the Internet.
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是晶体管和互联网
09:48
So, since the transistor is so simple,
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因此,既然晶体管如此简单
09:51
you can put lots of them together.
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你可以将大量的晶体管组合在一起
09:53
And you put lots of them together and you come with
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组合在一起后,你可以组成
09:55
something called integrated circuits.
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完整的集成电路
09:57
And a current integrated circuit
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集成电路
09:59
might have in each one of these chips
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可能存在于这些芯片之中
10:01
something like a billion transistors,
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像是十亿个晶体管
10:03
all of which have to work perfectly every time.
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它们每次都必须以完美的状态工作
10:06
So that's the next layer of simplicity,
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这是另一个层次的简洁
10:09
and, in fact, integrated circuits
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并且,实际上,集成电路
10:11
are really simple in the sense that they,
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确实是简单的
10:13
in general, work really well.
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就它们总体上运转的很好来说
10:15
With integrated circuits, you can build cellphones.
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用集成电路,你可以制造出手机
10:18
You all are accustomed to having your cellphones work
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你们早已习惯于手机
10:21
the large majority of the time.
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在大部分时间都能正常工作
10:23
In Boston ... Boston is a little bit like Namibia
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在波士顿,波士顿与纳米比亚有些相似
10:25
in its cell phone coverage, (Laughter)
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在她们的手机信号覆盖方面
10:27
so that we're not accustomed to that all the time,
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所以我们还并不总是那么适应
10:29
but some of the time.
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只是一段时间
10:32
But, in fact, if you have cell phones,
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但是,实际上,如果你有手机
10:34
you can now go to this nice lady
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你现在可以看这位美女
10:36
who's somewhere like Namibia,
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她像是个纳米比亚人
10:38
and who is extremely happy with the fact
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并且她非常激动
10:40
that although she does not have
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尽管她没有
10:42
an master's degree in
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一个麻省理工
10:44
electrical engineering from MIT,
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电子工程硕士学位
10:46
she's nonetheless able to hack her cell phone
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但她还是能够修改她的手机
10:48
to get power in some funny way.
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使它能以某种滑稽的方式充电
10:51
And from that comes the Internet.
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放下手机,我们来看看因特网
10:53
And this is a map of bitflows across the continent.
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这是一幅大洲之间数据流量的图
10:56
The two blobs that are light in the middle there
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图中非常亮的两块区域
10:59
are the United States and Europe.
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分别是美国和欧洲
11:01
And then back to simplicity again.
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然后,我们回到有关简单的讨论
11:04
So here we have what I think is one of the great ideas,
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我们现在有Google
11:07
which is Google.
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我认为那是最伟大的点子之一
11:09
Which, in this simple portal
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在它简洁的页面中
11:11
makes the claim
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Google称
11:13
that it makes accessible
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可以使用户访问
11:15
all of the world's information.
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全世界的信息
11:17
But the point is that
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然而,要点是
11:19
that extraordinary simple idea
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这个非凡的简单创意
11:22
rests on layers of simplicity
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是基于若干简单的底层
11:25
each compounded into a complexity
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而每层叠加起来就成为了一个复杂的东西
11:27
that is itself simple,
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但就其可靠程度而言
11:29
in the sense that it is completely reliable.
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它自身也确实是简单的
11:33
All right, let me then finish off
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好了,让我来总结一下
11:35
with four general statements,
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总共有四个陈述
11:39
an example and two aphorisms.
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一个例子和两条格言
11:42
The characteristics, which I think
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我想到了一些特征
11:44
are useful to think about for simple things:
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它们有助于我们思考简洁的事物
11:47
First, they are predictable.
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首先,它们是可预测的
11:51
Their behavior is predictable.
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它们的行为是可以预测的
11:53
Now, one of the nice characteristics
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这样,简洁的事物
11:55
of simple things
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具有的一个很好的特征就是
11:57
is you know what it's going to do, in general.
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你通常知道它会去做什么
11:59
So simplicity and predictability
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所以说,简洁和可预测
12:01
are characteristics of simple things.
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是简单事物的特点
12:04
The second is, and this is a real world statement,
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第二点,是源于实际的一点
12:07
they're cheap.
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它们要便宜
12:09
If you have things that are cheap enough,
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如果你手中的东西足够廉价
12:11
people will find uses for them,
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人们就会去寻找它们的用途
12:13
even if they seem very primitive.
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即使它看起来相当原始
12:15
So, for example, stones.
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比如石头
12:17
You can build cathedrals out of stones,
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你可以用石头建成教堂
12:20
you just have to know what it does.
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你只需要知道它用来做什么
12:22
You carve them in blocks and then you
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你将石头削成砖,然后你
12:24
pile them on top of one another,
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将它们一个一个垒起来
12:26
and they support weight.
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然后它们就能承重
12:28
So there has to be function, the function has to be predictable
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所以说,它们要有一定的功能,功能要可以想得到
12:31
and the cost has to be low.
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此外开销也必须低廉
12:33
What that means is
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这就意味着
12:35
that you have to have a high performance
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必须要有良好的性能
12:37
or value for cost.
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或者价值成本
12:41
And then I would propose
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然后,我会提出
12:43
as this last component
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最后一个要素
12:45
that they serve, or have the potential to serve,
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即它们能作为,或者有潜力成为
12:48
as building blocks.
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构成的要素
12:50
That is, you can stack them.
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那就是说,你可以堆砌它们
12:52
And stack can mean this way, or it can mean this way,
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所说的堆砌可以是这样的,也可以是那样的
12:55
or it can mean in some arbitrary n-dimensional space.
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再或者意味着任意的n维空间
12:58
But if you have something that has a function,
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但是如果你有些具有某种功能的东西
13:00
and it's really cheap,
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而且它非常便宜
13:02
people will find new ways of putting it together
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人们就会找到新的方法将它们组合
13:04
to make new things.
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来制作出新的事物
13:06
Cheap, functional, reliable things
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廉价、有一定功能并且可靠的东西
13:09
unleash the creativity of people
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解放了人们的创造力
13:11
who then build stuff that you could not imagine.
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那些人之后制作出你想象不到的事物
13:14
There's no way of predicting the Internet
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若是基于第一个晶体管
13:17
based on the first transistor.
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肯定将没有办法预测因特网
13:19
It just is not possible.
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它就是不可能
13:21
So these are the components.
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以上就是这些要素
13:24
Now, the example
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现在我想展示的
13:26
is something that I want to give you
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这个例子是
13:28
from the work that we ourselves do.
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来源于我们进行的工作
13:31
We are very interested in
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我们致力于
13:34
delivering health care in the developing world,
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对第三世界提供医疗援助
13:37
and one of the things that we wish to do in this particular business
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并且我们在这件事情上想完成的
13:40
is to find a way of doing medical diagnosis
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是尽可能找到
13:43
at as close to zero cost
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一种几乎是零费用的
13:45
as we can manage.
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医疗诊断方法
13:47
So, how does one do that?
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嗯,一个人怎么才能做到这些?
13:49
This is a world in which there's no electricity,
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第三世界没有电力
13:51
there's no money, there's no medical competence.
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那里没有资金,没有医疗能力
13:54
And I don't want to spend your time in going through the details,
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我不想用过程的细节浪费大家的时间
13:57
but in the lower right-hand corner,
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但在右下角
13:59
you see an example of the kind of thing that we have.
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你们可以看到我们现有的方案
14:02
It's a little paper chip.
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那是一个很小的纸芯片
14:04
It has a few things printed on it
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上面印了一些东西
14:06
using the same technology
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印刷技术与
14:08
that you use for making comic books,
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印制漫画书的相同
14:10
which was the inspiration for this particular idea.
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正是这项技术为我们提供了灵感
14:13
And you put a drop, in this case, of urine at the bottom.
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你滴一滴液体,对于这个纸芯片来说要滴上尿液
14:16
It wicks its way up into these little branches.
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它被吸上去,进入这些小分支
14:19
You know, no power required.
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你要知道,不需要其它能量
14:21
It turns colors. In this particular case,
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它会变色。在这个特定情况下
14:23
you're reading kidney function.
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正在看的是肾功能读数
14:26
And, since the health care worker
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另外,由于这个地方的
14:29
of much of this part of the world
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医疗工作者
14:31
is an 18 year-old with an AK-47,
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通常是18岁左右,手拿AK-47
14:34
who happens to be out of work and is willing
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碰巧没有工作,并且愿意
14:36
to go around and do this sort of thing,
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四处转转然后做这类事情
14:38
he can take a picture of it with his cellphone,
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他可以用自己的手机拍张照片
14:40
send the picture back to where there is a doctor,
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而后将照片送回有医生的地方
14:42
and the doctor can look at it.
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这样医生就能看到结果
14:44
So what you've done is to take a technology,
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所以说,你所做的就是,用一种
14:47
which is available everywhere,
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在任何地方都能用上的技术
14:49
make a device, which is extremely cheap,
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做出一种极为廉价的装置
14:52
and make it in such a fashion
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并且做成这种样子
14:54
that it is very, very reliable.
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使它非常非常可靠
14:56
If we can pull this off,
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如果我们能成功做到这些
14:58
if we can build more function,
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如果我们可以加入更多功能
15:00
it will be stackable.
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它将会是可以堆叠的
15:02
That is to say, if we can make the basic technology
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那就是说,如果我们可以使一两样东西中
15:05
of one or two things work,
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基本的技术生效
15:07
it will be applicable to a very, very
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那它将可以适用于
15:09
large variety of human conditions,
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各种不同的个人条件下
15:11
and hence, extendable in both
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因此,也就具有延伸的潜力
15:13
vertical and horizontal directions.
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无论是在水平、纵深方向
15:16
Part of my interest in this, I have to say,
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不得不说,我的兴趣一部分
15:18
is that I would like to -- how do I put this politely? --
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是我希望,或者说的客气一点
15:21
change the way, or maybe eviscerate,
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改变,或者去除美国医疗体制
15:23
the capital structure of the U.S. health care system,
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中资本就够的本质部分
15:26
which I think is fundamentally broken.
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我认为那是从根本上坏掉的
15:29
So, let me close --
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让我以--
15:31
(Applause)
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(掌声)
15:34
Let me close with my two aphorisms.
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让我以这两句警语作为结束
15:36
One of them is from Mr. Einstein,
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其中一条来自爱因斯坦
15:38
and he says, "Everything should be made
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他说,“所有的事物都要做到
15:40
as simple as possible, but not simpler."
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尽量简洁但又不过分简单。”
15:43
And I think that's a very good way of thinking about the problem.
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我认为那是思考这个问题非常好的方式
15:46
If you take too much out
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如果你从简单的东西里
15:48
of something that's simple, you lose function.
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去除太多,你就失去了它的功能
15:50
You have to have low cost,
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你必须要做到低开销
15:52
but you also have to have a function.
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但是你还需要功能
15:54
So you can't make it too simple.
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所以说你不可以做得过于简单
15:56
And the second is a design issue,
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第二条是设计的事情
15:58
and it's not directly relevant, but it's a nice statement.
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它并不是那么相关,但它却是很好的叙述
16:01
This is by de Saint-Exupery.
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这是de Saint-Exupery说的
16:04
And he says, "You know you've achieved perfection in design,
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他说道:“你知道你的设计达到完美
16:07
not when you have nothing more to add,
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不是因为你没有什么可以加上去,
16:10
but when you have nothing more to take away."
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而是当你当你不能再去除些什么的时候。”
16:12
And that certainly is going in the right direction.
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这句话的方向当然是对的
16:16
So, what I think one can begin to do
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这是一个人可以用到并以之为开始的
16:19
with this kind of
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就我所想,
16:22
cut at the word simplicity,
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以简洁为目的
16:24
which doesn't cover Brancusi,
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的精简
16:26
it doesn't answer the question of
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这解释不了为什么说
16:28
why Mondrian is better or worse
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蒙德里安的画比梵高的好还是坏
16:31
or simpler or less simpler than Van Gogh,
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或者是比梵高的画简单还是复杂
16:33
and certainly doesn't address the question
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而且也没有解释
16:35
of whether Mozart is simpler than Bach.
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莫扎特的音乐是不是比巴赫的简单
16:38
But it does make a point --
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但它确实明确了一点
16:40
which is one which, in a sense,
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就是,在某种意义上
16:42
differentiates the real world of people who make things,
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区分开制造的人
16:45
and the world of people who think about things,
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和考虑这些东西的人
16:48
which is, there is an intellectual merit
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这意味着,提出
16:51
to asking: How do we make things
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“如何才能制造出
16:53
as simple as we can,
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尽可能简单
16:55
as cheap as we can, as functional as we can
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尽可能廉价,尽量能发挥机能
16:58
and as freely interconnectable as we can?
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并能尽可能自由联系的东西”有了科学意义
17:01
If we make that kind of simplicity in our technology
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如果我们在技术中加入这种简洁
17:04
and then give it to you guys,
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然后将其传给你们
17:06
you can go off and do all kinds of fabulous things with it.
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你们离开之后就可以利用它做各种精彩纷呈的东西
17:09
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢
17:11
(Applause)
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(掌声)
17:20
Chris Anderson: Quick question.
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Chris Anderson: 问几个问题
17:22
So can you picture
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你能想象一下
17:25
that a science of simplicity
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有关简单的科学
17:27
might get to the point where
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可以切中要害,不管
17:29
you could look out at various systems --
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你查看的是什么样系统,
17:31
say a financial system or a legal system, health system -- and say,
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比如说,财政系统或者法律系统、医疗系统,再比如说
17:34
"That has got to the point of danger
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若是这些系统到了危险的境地
17:36
or dysfunctionality for the following reasons,
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或者因为某些原因无法工作
17:38
and this is how we might simplify it"?
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这是我们应该简化的方法么?
17:40
George Whitesides: Yes, I think you could. Because if you look
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George Whitesides:是的,我想你可以,因为如果你
17:42
at the components from which the system is made
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查看系统的组成部分
17:44
and examine their fragility, or their stability,
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并且检查它们的脆弱度,或者是它们的牢固度
17:47
you can probably build a kind of risk assessment based on that basis.
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你没准可以在那些基础之上建立起一种风险评估方式
17:50
CA: Have you started to do that?
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CA:你开始做这些了么?
17:52
I mean, with the health system, you got a sort of
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我的意思是,对于医疗系统,你有一种
17:54
radical solution on the cost side,
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在财政方面的根本方法
17:56
but in terms of the system itself?
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但是对于这个系统自身呢?
17:58
GW: Well, no.
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GW:厄,没有
18:00
How do I put that simply? No.
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我怎么去把它变得简单,不可能
18:02
CA: That was a simple, powerful answer. GW: Yes.
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CA:这是个简单、有力的回答。 GW:是的
18:05
CA: So, in terms of
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CA:那么,对于
18:07
that diagnostic technology that you've got,
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你所掌握的诊断技术而言
18:09
where is that, and when do you see that
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什么时候,并且你认为什么时候
18:11
maybe getting rolled out to scale.
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这种诊断方式会规模壮大
18:13
GW: That's coming out soon. I mean, the systems work,
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GW:那即将出现,我的意思是,那个系统开始工作
18:16
and we have to find out how to manufacture them and do things of this kind,
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并且我们必须找出怎么去制造出它们,并做这一类的事情
18:18
but the basic technology works.
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但是最基本的技术起了作用
18:20
CA: You've got a company set up to ...
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CA:你已经建立了一家公司来--
18:22
GW: A foundation, a foundation. Not-for-profit.
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GW:是一个基金会,基金会,非盈利的
18:25
CA: All right. Well, thank you so much for your talk. Thank you. (Applause)
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CA:好的,非常感谢您的演讲,谢谢
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