George Whitesides: Toward a science of simplicity

48,255 views ・ 2010-04-29

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

譯者: Wenjer Leuschel 審譯者: Sunshine Wang
00:18
Most of the talks
0
18260
2000
各位這幾天
00:20
that you've heard in the last several fabulous days
1
20260
3000
所聽到的大多數精彩演說
00:23
have been from people who have the characteristic
2
23260
2000
都是具有專業特長
00:25
that they have thought about something,
3
25260
2000
學有專精的專家
00:27
they are experts, they know what's going on.
4
27260
3000
經過深思熟慮所發表的演說
00:31
All of you know about the topic
5
31260
2000
大家都知道
00:33
that I'm supposed to talk about.
6
33260
2000
我將發表的講題是什麼
00:35
That is, you know what simplicity is,
7
35260
2000
各位都知道什麼是「簡單」
00:37
you know what complexity is.
8
37260
2000
知道什麼是「複雜」
00:39
The trouble is, I don't.
9
39260
2000
問題是:我並不知道
00:41
And what I'm going to do is share with you
10
41260
2000
因此我將與各位
00:43
my ignorance on this subject.
11
43260
2000
分享我對講題的無知
00:46
I want you to read this,
12
46260
2000
請大家讀這段引述
00:48
because we're going to come back to it in a moment.
13
48260
3000
因為不久後我們還會回到這段話
00:53
The quote is from
14
53260
2000
這是鼎鼎大名的最高法院
00:55
the fabled Potter Stewart
15
55260
2000
大法官波特•司徒華談論
00:59
opinion on pornography.
16
59260
3000
色情所發表的一段話
01:02
And let me just read it,
17
62260
2000
那麼我現在念
01:04
the important details here:
18
64260
2000
其中的重要細節
01:06
"Shorthand description, ['hardcore pornography'];
19
66260
3000
「簡略的描述,重鹹濕的色情
01:09
and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly defining it.
20
69260
3000
我恐怕無法給它清楚的定義
01:12
But I know it when I see it."
21
72260
2000
但一看就知道」
01:14
I'm going to come back to that in a moment.
22
74260
3000
我還會回到這段話
01:17
So, what is simplicity?
23
77260
2000
那麼,什麼是「簡單」?
01:19
It's good to start with some examples.
24
79260
2000
我們先舉個例子
01:22
A coffee cup -- we don't think about coffee cups,
25
82260
3000
咖啡杯,我們不會想太多
01:25
but it's much more interesting than one might think --
26
85260
2000
但它可能比你認為的還有趣得多
01:27
a coffee cup is a device,
27
87260
3000
咖啡杯是一種器具,對
01:30
which has a container and a handle.
28
90260
3000
是一種容器,對;還有握柄,對
01:33
The handle enables you to hold it
29
93260
3000
如果容器裡裝滿熱水的話
01:36
when the container is filled with hot liquid.
30
96260
3000
握柄讓你能握住杯子,是吧
01:39
Why is that important?
31
99260
2000
那有什麼重要呢?
01:41
Well, it enables you to drink coffee.
32
101260
2000
嗯,它讓你能喝咖啡
01:43
But also, by the way, the coffee is hot,
33
103260
2000
而且咖啡是熱的
01:45
the liquid is sterile;
34
105260
2000
液體是煮沸消毒過的
01:47
you're not likely to get cholera that way.
35
107260
2000
這樣你就不會感染霍亂
01:49
So the coffee cup, or the cup with a handle,
36
109260
3000
那麼咖啡杯或是有握柄的杯子
01:52
is one of the tools used by society
37
112260
3000
是社會上用來維護
01:55
to maintain public health.
38
115260
2000
公共衛生的工具之一
01:57
Scissors are your clothes,
39
117260
2000
剪刀用來剪裁衣服
01:59
glasses enable you to see things
40
119260
2000
眼鏡讓你能看見東西
02:01
and keep you from being eaten by cheetahs
41
121260
2000
也讓你不被印度豹給吃了
02:03
or run down by automobiles,
42
123260
2000
或讓汽車給撞著了
02:05
and books are, after all, your education.
43
125260
3000
還有書,這是用來教育你的
02:08
But there's another class of simple things,
44
128260
2000
不過還有其它
02:10
which are also very important.
45
130260
2000
簡單的東西,同樣重要
02:12
Simple in function,
46
132260
2000
功能簡單
02:14
but not at all simple in how they're constructed.
47
134260
3000
構造卻不簡單
02:17
And the two here are just examples.
48
137260
3000
這裡有兩個例子
02:20
One is the cellphone, which we use every day.
49
140260
3000
一是我們天天使用的行動電話
02:23
And it rests on a complexity,
50
143260
2000
其構造極其複雜
02:25
which has some characteristics
51
145260
2000
所具有的特性和我的朋友
02:27
very different from those that my friend
52
147260
2000
貝諾特•曼德爾博特談到的
02:29
Benoit Mandelbrot discussed,
53
149260
2000
有很大不同
02:31
but are very interesting.
54
151260
2000
但是也很有趣
02:33
And the other, of course, is a birth control pill,
55
153260
3000
另一例當然是避孕藥了
02:36
which, in a very simple way,
56
156260
2000
它既簡單又根本地
02:38
fundamentally changed the structure of society
57
158260
2000
改變了社會結構
02:40
by changing the role of women in it
58
160260
3000
避孕藥為婦女所提供的
02:43
by providing to them
59
163260
2000
選擇懷孕與否的機會
02:45
the opportunity to make reproductive choices.
60
165260
2000
改變了婦女的角色
02:50
So, there are two ways of thinking about this word, I think.
61
170260
3000
我想有兩種方式來思考這個詞
02:53
And here I've corrupted
62
173260
2000
那麼我稍微修改一下
02:55
the Potter Stewart quotation
63
175260
3000
波特•司徒華的那段話
02:58
by saying that we can think about something --
64
178260
2000
從剪刀開始
03:00
which spans all the way from scissors
65
180260
2000
一直到行動電話
03:02
to the cell phone,
66
182260
2000
網際網路和避孕藥
03:04
Internet and birth control pills --
67
184260
2000
等等,都有一個
03:06
by saying that they're simple,
68
186260
3000
共通點:它們都很簡單
03:09
the functions are simple,
69
189260
2000
在功能上都是簡單的
03:11
and we recognize what that simplicity is
70
191260
2000
大家都看見它們的「簡單」
03:13
when we see it.
71
193260
2000
一看就知道
03:15
Or there may be another way of doing it,
72
195260
3000
也許另有別的方式來看事情
03:19
which is to think about the problem in terms of what --
73
199260
3000
也就是從道德哲學家的觀點
03:22
if you associate with moral philosophers --
74
202260
3000
來思考這個問題
03:25
is called the teapot problem.
75
205260
3000
那就是所謂的茶壺問題
03:29
The teapot problem I'll pose this way.
76
209260
3000
茶壺問題嘛,這麼說吧
03:32
Suppose you see a teapot,
77
212260
2000
假設你看到把茶壺
03:34
and the teapot is
78
214260
3000
茶壺裡
03:37
filled with hot water.
79
217260
2000
盛滿了熱水
03:39
And you then ask the question:
80
219260
2000
你提出問題啦:
03:41
Why is the water hot?
81
221260
2000
為什麼水是熱的?
03:43
And that's a simple question.
82
223260
2000
這個問題很簡單
03:45
It's like, what is simplicity?
83
225260
2000
就像問:「簡單」是什麼?
03:47
One answer would be:
84
227260
2000
有個答案是:
03:49
because the kinetic energy of the water molecules is high
85
229260
2000
因為水分子運動能量高
03:51
and they bounce against things rapidly --
86
231260
2000
撞擊的速度很快
03:53
that's a kind of physical science argument.
87
233260
3000
這是物理的論點
03:56
A second argument would be:
88
236260
2000
第二個論點是:
03:58
because it was sitting on a stove with the flame on --
89
238260
3000
因為它剛剛在爐子上燒
04:01
that's an historical argument.
90
241260
2000
這是歷史的論點
04:03
A third is that I wanted hot water
91
243260
2000
第三個是:我要用熱水
04:05
for tea --
92
245260
2000
泡茶
04:07
that's an intentional argument.
93
247260
2000
這是交代意圖的論點
04:09
And, since this is coming from a moral philosopher,
94
249260
2000
這是道德哲學家的回答
04:11
the fourth would be that it's part of God's plan for the universe.
95
251260
3000
第四個是:這是上帝對宇宙的安排的一部分
04:14
All of these are possibilities.
96
254260
2000
這些答案都有可能
04:16
The point is that you get into trouble
97
256260
3000
重點是,你會有麻煩
04:19
when you ask a single question
98
259260
2000
如果你只問一個問題
04:21
with a single box for an answer,
99
261260
2000
只要一個答案
04:23
in which that single question actually is many questions
100
263260
3000
但那個問題其實包含許多問題
04:26
with quite different meanings,
101
266260
2000
意義大不相同
04:28
but with the same words.
102
268260
3000
卻使用相同的字彙
04:31
Asking, "What is simplicity?" I think falls in that category.
103
271260
3000
問「簡單」什麼是,我想就是這類的問題
04:35
What is the state of science?
104
275260
2000
科學的現況是什麼?
04:37
And, interestingly, complexity
105
277260
2000
有趣的是其中
04:39
is very highly evolved.
106
279260
2000
所牽涉到的極其複雜
04:41
We have a lot of interesting information
107
281260
2000
關於複雜
04:43
about what complexity is.
108
283260
2000
我們有許多有趣的資訊
04:45
Simplicity, for reasons
109
285260
2000
不太清楚到底
04:47
that are a little bit obscure,
110
287260
2000
出於什麼原因
04:49
is almost not pursued,
111
289260
2000
幾乎無人探討簡單
04:51
at least in the academic world.
112
291260
2000
至少學界情況是如此
04:53
We academics -- I am an academic --
113
293260
2000
我們學界中人,我是學界的
04:55
we love complexity.
114
295260
2000
我們喜歡複雜
04:57
You can write papers about complexity,
115
297260
2000
論文談的盡是複雜
04:59
and the nice thing about complexity is
116
299260
2000
談論複雜,最棒的是
05:01
it's fundamentally intractable in many ways,
117
301260
2000
基本上在許多方面是屹立不搖的
05:03
so you're not responsible for outcomes. (Laughter)
118
303260
3000
因此你可以不必為結果負責
05:06
Simplicity -- all of you really would like
119
306260
3000
「簡單」呢,早上起來
05:09
your Waring Blender in the morning
120
309260
2000
大家都會用果汁機
05:11
to make whatever a Waring Blender does,
121
311260
2000
打些什麼吃的喝的
05:13
but not explode or play Beethoven.
122
313260
3000
你不會希望它爆炸或彈奏貝多芬
05:16
You're not interested in the limits of these things.
123
316260
3000
你對這類東西的侷限沒多大興趣
05:19
So what one is interested in
124
319260
2000
那麼大家有興趣的
05:21
has a lot to do with the rewards of the system.
125
321260
3000
其實跟回報很有關係
05:24
And there's a lot of rewards in thinking
126
324260
2000
思考「複雜」和「顯現」
05:26
about complexity and emergence,
127
326260
2000
能帶來許多的獎賞
05:28
not so much in thinking about simplicity.
128
328260
3000
思考「簡單」獎賞就沒那麼多了
05:31
One of the things I want to do
129
331260
2000
我想做的事情之一是
05:33
is to help you with a very important task --
130
333260
3000
幫助你應付一個重要的場面
05:36
which you may not know that you have very often --
131
336260
3000
這種情況不難理解
05:39
which is to understand
132
339260
2000
你可能常常不知道
05:41
how to sit next to a physicist at a dinner party
133
341260
3000
在餐宴上坐在一位物理學家旁邊
05:44
and have a conversation. (Laughter)
134
344260
2000
該跟他說些什麼
05:46
And the words that I would like you to focus on
135
346260
3000
那我告訴你要注意的兩個詞是:
05:49
are complexity and emergence,
136
349260
2000
「複雜」和「顯現」
05:51
because these will enable you to start the conversation
137
351260
3000
它們讓你能開始聊
05:54
and then daydream about other things.
138
354260
2000
還能繼續跟他一起作其它的白日夢
05:56
(Laughter)
139
356260
3000
(笑聲)
05:59
All right, what is complexity in this view of things,
140
359260
3000
好吧,「複雜」是什麼?
06:02
and what is emergence?
141
362260
2000
「顯現」又是什麼?
06:04
We have, actually, a pretty good working definition of complexity.
142
364260
3000
我們對於複雜其實有個很好的定義
06:07
It is a system, like traffic,
143
367260
2000
它是一種系統,像是交通系統
06:09
which has components.
144
369260
2000
有其組成的零件
06:11
The components interact with one another.
145
371260
2000
零件之間有互動
06:13
These are cars and drivers. They dissipate energy.
146
373260
3000
汽車和開車的人,他們消耗能量
06:16
It turns out that, whenever you have that system,
147
376260
2000
結果呢,只要有了這樣的系統
06:18
weird stuff happens,
148
378260
2000
奇怪的事情就會發生
06:20
and you in Los Angeles
149
380260
2000
各位住在洛杉磯
06:22
probably know this better than anyone.
150
382260
3000
可能比別人都清楚這一點
06:25
Here's another example,
151
385260
2000
這裡還有另一個例子
06:27
which I put up because
152
387260
2000
我提出來是因為
06:29
it's an example of really important current science.
153
389260
3000
這是當前科學上重要的例子
06:32
You can't possibly read that. It's not intended that you read it,
154
392260
3000
這不可能看得清楚,本來就不要大家讀的
06:35
but that's a tiny part
155
395260
2000
但這是你們的
06:37
of the chemical reactions going on
156
397260
2000
每一個微小細胞裡
06:39
in each of your cells at any given moment.
157
399260
3000
隨時都在進行的化學反應
06:42
And it's like the traffic that you see.
158
402260
3000
就像是大家看到的交通狀況
06:45
The amazing thing about the cell is that
159
405260
2000
關於細胞,令人訝異的是
06:47
it actually does maintain a fairly stable
160
407260
2000
它確實與其它的細胞
06:49
working relationship with other cells,
161
409260
3000
維持著相當穩定的運作關係
06:52
but we don't know why.
162
412260
2000
我們不知道為何如此
06:54
Anyone who tells you that we understand life,
163
414260
2000
那些聲稱懂得生命的人
06:56
walk away.
164
416260
2000
沒有解釋就走了
06:59
And let me reduce this to the simplest level.
165
419260
3000
那麼,我把這一切簡化到最簡單的層次
07:02
We've heard from Bill Gates recently.
166
422260
2000
我們最近聽了比爾•蓋茲演說
07:04
All of us, to some extent, study
167
424260
2000
我們大家多多少少都研究了
07:06
this thing called a Bill Gates.
168
426260
2000
這個叫「比爾•蓋茲」的東西
07:08
Terrific. You learn everything you can about that.
169
428260
2000
你盡量學習了關於他的一切
07:10
And then there's another kind of thing that you might study,
170
430260
3000
你可能另外還研究別的東西
07:13
and you study that hard.
171
433260
2000
你很用功研究
07:15
That's a Bono, this is a Bono.
172
435260
2000
這是波諾
07:17
But then, if you know everything you can know about those two things,
173
437260
3000
你盡所能了解有關這兩者的一切後
07:20
and you put them together,
174
440260
2000
把他們放在一起
07:22
what can you say about this combination?
175
442260
2000
你能得到的組合是什麼?
07:24
The answer is, not a lot.
176
444260
2000
答案是:不多
07:26
And that's complexity.
177
446260
2000
那就是複雜
07:28
Now, imagine building that up to a city, or to a society,
178
448260
3000
那麼,推而及之於一個城市或一個社會
07:31
and you've got, obviously, an interesting problem.
179
451260
3000
顯然的這是個有趣的問題
07:34
All right, so let me give you an example
180
454260
3000
好吧,讓我舉一個
07:37
of simplicity
181
457260
2000
一種特殊的
07:39
of a particular kind.
182
459260
2000
「簡單」的例子
07:41
And I want to introduce a word
183
461260
2000
然後我要介紹一個
07:43
that I think is very useful,
184
463260
2000
我認為很有用的詞
07:45
which is stacking.
185
465260
2000
那就是「堆疊」
07:47
And I'm going to use stacking for a kind of simplicity
186
467260
3000
我將「堆疊」出一種「簡單」
07:50
that has the characteristic
187
470260
2000
這種「簡單」具有
07:52
that it is so simple
188
472260
2000
可以說是既簡單
07:54
and so reliable
189
474260
2000
又可靠的特性
07:56
that I can build things with it.
190
476260
2000
可以用來建構別的東西
07:58
Or I'm going to use simple to mean
191
478260
2000
當我說「簡單」,意思是
08:00
reliable, predictable, repeatable.
192
480260
3000
可靠、可預測、可重複
08:05
And I'm going to use as an example the Internet,
193
485260
2000
拿網際網路來說
08:07
because it's a particularly good example
194
487260
2000
這是個很好的
08:09
of stacked simplicity.
195
489260
3000
「堆疊簡單」的特例
08:12
We call it a complex system, which it is,
196
492260
2000
我們稱網際網路為「複雜系統」,確實也是
08:14
but it's also something else.
197
494260
3000
但也有別的意思
08:17
The Internet starts with mathematics,
198
497260
3000
網際網路始於數學
08:20
it starts with binary.
199
500260
2000
始於二進位系統
08:22
And if you look at the list of things on the bottom,
200
502260
3000
各位如果看看底下的清單
08:25
we are familiar with the Arabic numbers
201
505260
2000
大家都熟悉阿拉伯數字
08:27
one to 10 and so on.
202
507260
2000
一到十等等的
08:29
In binary, one is 0001,
203
509260
3000
在二進位系統裡一是0001
08:32
seven is 0111.
204
512260
3000
七是0111
08:35
The question is: Why is binary
205
515260
2000
問題是:為什麼使用二進位
08:37
simpler than Arabic?
206
517260
2000
會比使用阿拉伯數字簡單?
08:39
And the answer is, simply,
207
519260
2000
答案很簡單:
08:41
that if I hold up three fingers, you can count that easily,
208
521260
3000
如果我伸出三根指頭,你能輕易的數
08:44
but if I hold up this,
209
524260
2000
但如果是這個
08:46
it's sort of hard to say that I just did seven.
210
526260
2000
要說我剛才比了個七可不容易
08:48
The virtue of binary is that it's the simplest possible way
211
528260
3000
二進位的好處是:它是表示數字
08:51
of representing numbers.
212
531260
2000
最簡單的辦法
08:53
Anything else is more complicated.
213
533260
2000
其它都更複雜
08:55
You can catch errors with it,
214
535260
2000
二進位很容易找到錯誤
08:57
it's unambiguous in its reading,
215
537260
2000
只有一種解讀法
08:59
there are lots of good things about binary.
216
539260
2000
二進位系統有許多好處
09:01
So it is very, very simple
217
541260
2000
只要懂得解讀法
09:03
once you learn how to read it.
218
543260
2000
它就非常非常簡單
09:05
Now, if you like to represent
219
545260
2000
那麼,如果要表示
09:07
this zero and one of binary,
220
547260
2000
二進位系統的零和一
09:09
you need a device.
221
549260
2000
需要使用一種裝置
09:11
And think of things in your life
222
551260
2000
那麼,想一想生活中
09:13
that are binary,
223
553260
2000
有什麼二進位的東西
09:15
one of them is light switches.
224
555260
2000
其中之一就是電燈開關
09:17
They can be on and off. That's binary.
225
557260
2000
開關非開即關-這就是二進位
09:19
Now wall switches, we all know, fail.
226
559260
3000
牆上的開關有時會壞掉
09:23
But our friends who are condensed matter physicists
227
563260
2000
但是五十年前
09:25
managed to come up, some 50 years ago,
228
565260
3000
我們那些積體物理學家朋友們發明了
09:28
with a very nice device, shown under that bell jar,
229
568260
3000
鐘形罐裡的那個很棒的裝置
09:31
which is a transistor.
230
571260
2000
也就是電晶體
09:33
A transistor is nothing more than a wall switch.
231
573260
2000
電晶體其實和牆上的開關
09:35
It turns things on and off,
232
575260
2000
沒有兩樣,非開即關
09:37
but it does so without moving parts
233
577260
2000
但不必移動零件
09:39
and it doesn't fail, basically, for a very long period of time.
234
579260
3000
而且很長時間不會壞掉
09:42
So the second layer of simplicity
235
582260
3000
那麼,「簡單」的第二個層次
09:45
was the transistor in the Internet.
236
585260
3000
是進入電晶體和網際網路時代
09:48
So, since the transistor is so simple,
237
588260
3000
由於電晶體構造非常簡單
09:51
you can put lots of them together.
238
591260
2000
可以把很多個
09:53
And you put lots of them together and you come with
239
593260
2000
放在一起做成
09:55
something called integrated circuits.
240
595260
2000
積體電路
09:57
And a current integrated circuit
241
597260
2000
現在的積體電路
09:59
might have in each one of these chips
242
599260
2000
每一個晶片上可能
10:01
something like a billion transistors,
243
601260
2000
有大約十億個電晶體
10:03
all of which have to work perfectly every time.
244
603260
3000
每個晶體都必須完美運作
10:06
So that's the next layer of simplicity,
245
606260
3000
這就是「簡單」的另一個層次
10:09
and, in fact, integrated circuits
246
609260
2000
事實上,積體電路
10:11
are really simple in the sense that they,
247
611260
2000
真的非常簡單,因為
10:13
in general, work really well.
248
613260
2000
運作一般都很暢順
10:15
With integrated circuits, you can build cellphones.
249
615260
3000
用積體電路可以做行動電話
10:18
You all are accustomed to having your cellphones work
250
618260
3000
大家都習慣行動電話可以打得通
10:21
the large majority of the time.
251
621260
2000
大部分的時候是打得通的
10:23
In Boston ... Boston is a little bit like Namibia
252
623260
2000
波士頓行動電話的涵蓋率
10:25
in its cell phone coverage, (Laughter)
253
625260
2000
和納米比亞差不多
10:27
so that we're not accustomed to that all the time,
254
627260
2000
所以通常沒有那麼幸運
10:29
but some of the time.
255
629260
3000
只是有時打得通
10:32
But, in fact, if you have cell phones,
256
632260
2000
但只要有行動電話
10:34
you can now go to this nice lady
257
634260
2000
現在就可以
10:36
who's somewhere like Namibia,
258
636260
2000
去拜訪像這位
10:38
and who is extremely happy with the fact
259
638260
2000
在納米比亞的女士
10:40
that although she does not have
260
640260
2000
她會很高興自己
10:42
an master's degree in
261
642260
2000
不必擁有MIT的
10:44
electrical engineering from MIT,
262
644260
2000
電機工程碩士學位
10:46
she's nonetheless able to hack her cell phone
263
646260
2000
照樣能玩行動電話
10:48
to get power in some funny way.
264
648260
3000
玩得很開心
10:51
And from that comes the Internet.
265
651260
2000
網際網路也是從這裡開始
10:53
And this is a map of bitflows across the continent.
266
653260
3000
這兒有一張跨洲位元流動圖
10:56
The two blobs that are light in the middle there
267
656260
3000
中間有兩個發亮的區塊
10:59
are the United States and Europe.
268
659260
2000
是美國和歐洲
11:01
And then back to simplicity again.
269
661260
3000
現在回到「簡單」這個話題
11:04
So here we have what I think is one of the great ideas,
270
664260
3000
我認為最偉大的想法之一
11:07
which is Google.
271
667260
2000
就是Google
11:09
Which, in this simple portal
272
669260
2000
這個簡單的入口網站
11:11
makes the claim
273
671260
2000
聲稱透過這個網站
11:13
that it makes accessible
274
673260
2000
能夠獲取
11:15
all of the world's information.
275
675260
2000
全世界的資訊
11:17
But the point is that
276
677260
2000
不過值得注意的是
11:19
that extraordinary simple idea
277
679260
3000
異常簡單的想法
11:22
rests on layers of simplicity
278
682260
3000
是建立在許多層次的「簡單」之上
11:25
each compounded into a complexity
279
685260
2000
複合而成的「複雜」
11:27
that is itself simple,
280
687260
2000
卻仍然是簡單的
11:29
in the sense that it is completely reliable.
281
689260
3000
因為它的功能完全可靠
11:33
All right, let me then finish off
282
693260
2000
好吧,讓我用
11:35
with four general statements,
283
695260
3000
四個表述、一個例子
11:39
an example and two aphorisms.
284
699260
3000
兩句箴言來
11:42
The characteristics, which I think
285
702260
2000
總結我認為簡單的東西
11:44
are useful to think about for simple things:
286
704260
3000
所具有的特性:
11:47
First, they are predictable.
287
707260
3000
首先,它們都是可預測的
11:51
Their behavior is predictable.
288
711260
2000
其行為是可預測的
11:53
Now, one of the nice characteristics
289
713260
2000
簡單的東西
11:55
of simple things
290
715260
2000
具有的特性之一
11:57
is you know what it's going to do, in general.
291
717260
2000
是你通常知道它會做什麼
11:59
So simplicity and predictability
292
719260
2000
那麼,簡單的東西具有
12:01
are characteristics of simple things.
293
721260
3000
「簡單」和「可預測」的特性
12:04
The second is, and this is a real world statement,
294
724260
3000
其次,這是現實面的表述
12:07
they're cheap.
295
727260
2000
它們很便宜
12:09
If you have things that are cheap enough,
296
729260
2000
東西如果夠便宜
12:11
people will find uses for them,
297
731260
2000
即使看起來非常原始
12:13
even if they seem very primitive.
298
733260
2000
人們就會為它們找到用途
12:15
So, for example, stones.
299
735260
2000
以石頭為例
12:17
You can build cathedrals out of stones,
300
737260
3000
石頭可用來建造大教堂
12:20
you just have to know what it does.
301
740260
2000
只要知道它的性質
12:22
You carve them in blocks and then you
302
742260
2000
把石頭切成石塊
12:24
pile them on top of one another,
303
744260
2000
再一塊一塊堆起來
12:26
and they support weight.
304
746260
2000
它們就能承受重量
12:28
So there has to be function, the function has to be predictable
305
748260
3000
那麼,只要可預測功能
12:31
and the cost has to be low.
306
751260
2000
而且成本低廉
12:33
What that means is
307
753260
2000
換句話說
12:35
that you have to have a high performance
308
755260
2000
要有高效益
12:37
or value for cost.
309
757260
3000
即價值和成本必須成比例
12:41
And then I would propose
310
761260
2000
我提出的
12:43
as this last component
311
763260
2000
最後一個部份是
12:45
that they serve, or have the potential to serve,
312
765260
3000
要提供服務或具有服務潛能
12:48
as building blocks.
313
768260
2000
像建築石塊一般
12:50
That is, you can stack them.
314
770260
2000
也就是可以堆疊起來
12:52
And stack can mean this way, or it can mean this way,
315
772260
3000
可以是直的,也可以是橫的
12:55
or it can mean in some arbitrary n-dimensional space.
316
775260
3000
也可以在 N 次元空間堆疊
12:58
But if you have something that has a function,
317
778260
2000
但某種東西具有功能
13:00
and it's really cheap,
318
780260
2000
而且真的便宜
13:02
people will find new ways of putting it together
319
782260
2000
自然會有人找到組合的方式
13:04
to make new things.
320
784260
2000
創造出新的
13:06
Cheap, functional, reliable things
321
786260
3000
既便宜、有功能又可靠的東西
13:09
unleash the creativity of people
322
789260
2000
解放人們的創造力
13:11
who then build stuff that you could not imagine.
323
791260
3000
就可以創造出意想不到的東西
13:14
There's no way of predicting the Internet
324
794260
3000
發明電晶體時,並沒有料到
13:17
based on the first transistor.
325
797260
2000
會有網際網路
13:19
It just is not possible.
326
799260
2000
當時想都想不到
13:21
So these are the components.
327
801260
3000
以上是「簡單」的組成要素
13:24
Now, the example
328
804260
2000
現在舉個例子
13:26
is something that I want to give you
329
806260
2000
我想告訴各位一點
13:28
from the work that we ourselves do.
330
808260
3000
我們的研究成果
13:31
We are very interested in
331
811260
3000
我們非常感興趣
13:34
delivering health care in the developing world,
332
814260
3000
在發展中國家提供醫療保健
13:37
and one of the things that we wish to do in this particular business
333
817260
3000
我們想做的事之一
13:40
is to find a way of doing medical diagnosis
334
820260
3000
就是找到醫學診斷的方法
13:43
at as close to zero cost
335
823260
2000
盡量讓
13:45
as we can manage.
336
825260
2000
成本近乎於零
13:47
So, how does one do that?
337
827260
2000
如何做到呢?
13:49
This is a world in which there's no electricity,
338
829260
2000
那些國家沒有電力
13:51
there's no money, there's no medical competence.
339
831260
3000
沒有經費,醫藥也不發達
13:54
And I don't want to spend your time in going through the details,
340
834260
3000
我不想浪費時間詳述細節
13:57
but in the lower right-hand corner,
341
837260
2000
在右下角
13:59
you see an example of the kind of thing that we have.
342
839260
3000
可以看一個例子
14:02
It's a little paper chip.
343
842260
2000
那是一張小小的紙晶片
14:04
It has a few things printed on it
344
844260
2000
上面印著一些東西
14:06
using the same technology
345
846260
2000
製作的科技
14:08
that you use for making comic books,
346
848260
2000
和印製漫畫書相同
14:10
which was the inspiration for this particular idea.
347
850260
3000
這個想法的靈感其實也來自漫畫書
14:13
And you put a drop, in this case, of urine at the bottom.
348
853260
3000
滴一滴尿液在晶片下方
14:16
It wicks its way up into these little branches.
349
856260
3000
尿液往上滲入那些小分枝
14:19
You know, no power required.
350
859260
2000
大家可看見無須耗用能量
14:21
It turns colors. In this particular case,
351
861260
2000
紙晶片就會變色-這個晶片
14:23
you're reading kidney function.
352
863260
3000
可以判讀腎臟功能
14:26
And, since the health care worker
353
866260
3000
大多數這些發展中國家的
14:29
of much of this part of the world
354
869260
2000
醫療保健工作人員
14:31
is an 18 year-old with an AK-47,
355
871260
3000
是拿著AK-47的18歲青年
14:34
who happens to be out of work and is willing
356
874260
2000
找不到其它差事
14:36
to go around and do this sort of thing,
357
876260
2000
才來做這份工作
14:38
he can take a picture of it with his cellphone,
358
878260
2000
他可用行動電話拍下照片
14:40
send the picture back to where there is a doctor,
359
880260
2000
將照片傳送到醫生那裡
14:42
and the doctor can look at it.
360
882260
2000
醫生就可以檢查照片
14:44
So what you've done is to take a technology,
361
884260
3000
這是一種
14:47
which is available everywhere,
362
887260
2000
到處都能運用的科技
14:49
make a device, which is extremely cheap,
363
889260
3000
製造一種極為便宜的裝置
14:52
and make it in such a fashion
364
892260
2000
而且把它做成
14:54
that it is very, very reliable.
365
894260
2000
非常可靠的東西
14:56
If we can pull this off,
366
896260
2000
要是能夠成功拓展
14:58
if we can build more function,
367
898260
2000
要是能有更多功能
15:00
it will be stackable.
368
900260
2000
就是可「堆疊」的科技
15:02
That is to say, if we can make the basic technology
369
902260
3000
換句話說,如果能使基本科技的
15:05
of one or two things work,
370
905260
2000
一兩項功能順利運作
15:07
it will be applicable to a very, very
371
907260
2000
那麼該科技將可應用到
15:09
large variety of human conditions,
372
909260
2000
許許多多不同的人類需求
15:11
and hence, extendable in both
373
911260
2000
因此能朝著
15:13
vertical and horizontal directions.
374
913260
3000
垂直和水平的方向不斷擴展
15:16
Part of my interest in this, I have to say,
375
916260
2000
我必須說我對此的興趣之一
15:18
is that I would like to -- how do I put this politely? --
376
918260
3000
是-請恕我冒昧直言-我想改變
15:21
change the way, or maybe eviscerate,
377
921260
2000
或也許是切除
15:23
the capital structure of the U.S. health care system,
378
923260
3000
美國醫療保健系統的主要結構
15:26
which I think is fundamentally broken.
379
926260
3000
我認為那個系統根本已經失靈了
15:29
So, let me close --
380
929260
2000
我的結論是
15:31
(Applause)
381
931260
3000
(鼓掌)
15:34
Let me close with my two aphorisms.
382
934260
2000
用兩句箴言來總結
15:36
One of them is from Mr. Einstein,
383
936260
2000
一句是愛因斯坦說的
15:38
and he says, "Everything should be made
384
938260
2000
他說「一切都要做到
15:40
as simple as possible, but not simpler."
385
940260
3000
最簡單,簡單到不能再簡單」
15:43
And I think that's a very good way of thinking about the problem.
386
943260
3000
我認為這個思考模式棒極了
15:46
If you take too much out
387
946260
2000
在簡單的東西上減一分
15:48
of something that's simple, you lose function.
388
948260
2000
便會失一分功能
15:50
You have to have low cost,
389
950260
2000
一方面要降低成本
15:52
but you also have to have a function.
390
952260
2000
另一方面顧及功能
15:54
So you can't make it too simple.
391
954260
2000
因此不能太過簡單
15:56
And the second is a design issue,
392
956260
2000
再來是有關設計的問題
15:58
and it's not directly relevant, but it's a nice statement.
393
958260
3000
雖然沒有直接的關係,但這句箴言不錯
16:01
This is by de Saint-Exupery.
394
961260
3000
聖埃克絮佩里
16:04
And he says, "You know you've achieved perfection in design,
395
964260
3000
他說:「設計達到完美時
16:07
not when you have nothing more to add,
396
967260
3000
並非你不能再加點什麼
16:10
but when you have nothing more to take away."
397
970260
2000
而是無法再做任何刪減。」
16:12
And that certainly is going in the right direction.
398
972260
3000
這個思考方向肯定是正確的
16:16
So, what I think one can begin to do
399
976260
3000
我想可以根據這種
16:19
with this kind of
400
979260
3000
「簡單」的原則
16:22
cut at the word simplicity,
401
982260
2000
開始做的
16:24
which doesn't cover Brancusi,
402
984260
2000
雖不能包括朗古奇的機械
16:26
it doesn't answer the question of
403
986260
2000
也無法回答為什麼
16:28
why Mondrian is better or worse
404
988260
3000
蒙德里安的畫作比梵谷的好或壞
16:31
or simpler or less simpler than Van Gogh,
405
991260
2000
或是簡單或不簡單些
16:33
and certainly doesn't address the question
406
993260
2000
當然也不能解答
16:35
of whether Mozart is simpler than Bach.
407
995260
3000
莫札特是否比巴哈簡單
16:38
But it does make a point --
408
998260
2000
但這是重點
16:40
which is one which, in a sense,
409
1000260
2000
這個重點可以
16:42
differentiates the real world of people who make things,
410
1002260
3000
在現實世界中辨別出誰真的在創造
16:45
and the world of people who think about things,
411
1005260
3000
誰真的用心思考問題
16:48
which is, there is an intellectual merit
412
1008260
3000
這個問題具有學術價值—
16:51
to asking: How do we make things
413
1011260
2000
我們如何能
16:53
as simple as we can,
414
1013260
2000
盡可能既簡單又便宜
16:55
as cheap as we can, as functional as we can
415
1015260
3000
還兼顧功能,創造設備
16:58
and as freely interconnectable as we can?
416
1018260
3000
並能自由地互相結合?
17:01
If we make that kind of simplicity in our technology
417
1021260
3000
如果在科技上能達成那樣的「簡單」
17:04
and then give it to you guys,
418
1024260
2000
提供給大眾使用
17:06
you can go off and do all kinds of fabulous things with it.
419
1026260
3000
各位就能做各種美妙的事
17:09
Thank you very much.
420
1029260
2000
感謝您的聆聽
17:11
(Applause)
421
1031260
9000
(鼓掌)
17:20
Chris Anderson: Quick question.
422
1040260
2000
克里斯•安德森:問個小問題
17:22
So can you picture
423
1042260
3000
您是說您可以預見
17:25
that a science of simplicity
424
1045260
2000
一種「簡單」的科學
17:27
might get to the point where
425
1047260
2000
可能發展到這種程度:
17:29
you could look out at various systems --
426
1049260
2000
只須檢驗不同的系統
17:31
say a financial system or a legal system, health system -- and say,
427
1051260
3000
比方金融、法律或醫療系統,
17:34
"That has got to the point of danger
428
1054260
2000
就可說診斷該系統
17:36
or dysfunctionality for the following reasons,
429
1056260
2000
已經達到危險或功能失衡的地步
17:38
and this is how we might simplify it"?
430
1058260
2000
診斷也可以簡化到能這的方式?
17:40
George Whitesides: Yes, I think you could. Because if you look
431
1060260
2000
喬治•懷德賽芝:是的,應該做得到
17:42
at the components from which the system is made
432
1062260
2000
只要看看系統構成的零件
17:44
and examine their fragility, or their stability,
433
1064260
3000
並檢驗其脆弱度或穩定度
17:47
you can probably build a kind of risk assessment based on that basis.
434
1067260
3000
就可以進行風險評估
17:50
CA: Have you started to do that?
435
1070260
2000
克•安: 您已經開始這樣做了嗎?
17:52
I mean, with the health system, you got a sort of
436
1072260
2000
在醫療系統中,您在成本上
17:54
radical solution on the cost side,
437
1074260
2000
提出非常先進的解決方案
17:56
but in terms of the system itself?
438
1076260
2000
但在系統本身怎麼辦呢?
17:58
GW: Well, no.
439
1078260
2000
喬•: 嗯,不是那樣
18:00
How do I put that simply? No.
440
1080260
2000
我怎麼簡單的回答你呢,真的不是
18:02
CA: That was a simple, powerful answer. GW: Yes.
441
1082260
3000
克•安:好個簡單有力的回答 喬•懷:沒錯
18:05
CA: So, in terms of
442
1085260
2000
克•安:那麼,關於
18:07
that diagnostic technology that you've got,
443
1087260
2000
您發明的診斷科技
18:09
where is that, and when do you see that
444
1089260
2000
已問世了嗎?何時能
18:11
maybe getting rolled out to scale.
445
1091260
2000
看到它量產上市呢?
18:13
GW: That's coming out soon. I mean, the systems work,
446
1093260
3000
喬•懷:很快就會上市了,我是說,這是可行的
18:16
and we have to find out how to manufacture them and do things of this kind,
447
1096260
2000
我們研發出製造流程,敲定這些事情
18:18
but the basic technology works.
448
1098260
2000
這一項科技是可以實際運用的
18:20
CA: You've got a company set up to ...
449
1100260
2000
克•安:你成立了公司嗎?
18:22
GW: A foundation, a foundation. Not-for-profit.
450
1102260
3000
喬•懷:基金會,是個基金會,非營利的
18:25
CA: All right. Well, thank you so much for your talk. Thank you. (Applause)
451
1105260
3000
克•安:那好,非常感謝您的演說,謝謝
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7