Uber's plan to get more people into fewer cars | Travis Kalanick

翻译人员: 易帆 余 校对人员: Jiawei Ni

Today I wanted to -- well, this morning --

今天早上，

I want to talk about the future of human-driven transportation;

我想谈一谈人力运输的未来；

about how we can cut congestion, pollution and parking

有关于我们如何通过 用更少的车搭载更多乘客的方式

by getting more people into fewer cars;

来解决塞车，污染和停车的问题；

and how we can do it with the technology that's in our pockets.

以及如何运用 我们口袋里的科技来实现这个目标。

And yes, I'm talking about smartphones ...

没错，我谈的是智能手机...

not self-driving cars.

不是自动驾驶车。

But to get started we've got to go back over 100 years.

不过在开始（这个话题）之前， 我们先把目光移回到100年前。

Because it turns out there was an Uber way before Uber.

其实在 Uber 之前 就已经有一个“Uber”了。

And if it had survived,

如果它一直存在，

the future of transportation would probably already be here.

那未来的交通运输方式 现在可能已经出现了。

So let me introduce you to the jitney.

让我向各位介绍 jitney。

In 1914 it was created or invented by a guy named LP Draper.

它是在1914年由一位叫 LP德雷珀的人所创造或发明的。

He was a car salesman from LA, and he had an idea.

他是一位来自洛杉矶的 汽车销售员，他有一个点子。

Well, he was cruising around downtown Los Angeles,

他当时在我的家乡，

my hometown,

洛杉矶市中心兜风时，

and he saw trolleys

看到电车旁

with long lines of people trying to get to where they wanted to go.

排了很长的队伍，大家正准备排队上车。

He said, well, why don't I just put a sign on my car

他就想，为何我不在我的车上 放个牌子招呼大家，

that takes people wherever they want to go for a jitney --

让大家只要花5分钱 （jitney是五分钱的俚语）

that was slang for a nickel.

就能去他们想去的地方呢？

And so people jumped on board,

于是人们开始跳上车，

and not just in Los Angeles but across the country.

而且不只洛杉矶， 全国都开展了这项服务。

And within one year,

才仅仅过了1年，

by 1915,

也就是1915年，

there were 50,000 rides per day in Seattle,

在西雅图每天就有5万人次乘坐jitney，

45,000 rides per day in Kansas

在堪萨斯每天有4.5万，

and 150,000 rides per day in Los Angeles.

在洛杉矶则有15万人次。

To give you some perspective,

给各位补充一些概念，

Uber in Los Angeles

100年后的今天，

is doing 157,000 rides per day, today ...

洛杉矶的 Uber 每天有

100 years later.

15.7万人次搭车。

And so these are the trolley guys,

所以，当时这些电车司机，

the existing transportation monopoly at the time.

也是当时交通的垄断巨头。

They were clearly not happy about the jitney juggernaut.

他们对 jitney 巨大的成功 感到非常的不爽。

And so they got to work

所以他们在全国

and they went to cities across the country

各大城市穿梭游说，

and got regulations put in place to slow down the growth of the jitney.

联合起来制定针对 jitney 的各种规则， 来拖慢 jitney 的发展速度。

And there were all kinds of regulations.

各式各样的法规五花八门。

There were licenses -- often they were pricey.

营业执照——通常都很贵。

In some cities,

在一些城市里，

if you were a jitney driver,

如果你是个 jitney 司机，

你会被要求一天16个小时都得在 车里才能运营 jitney 。

you were required to be in the jitney for 16 hours a day.

In other cities,

在另一些城市里，

they required two jitney drivers for one jitney.

他们要求两个 jitney 司机使用一辆车。

But there was a really interesting regulation

但有一条法规很搞笑，

每一台 jitney 的后座上必须按上灯，

which was they had to put a backseat light --

install it in every Jitney --

因为他们想要阻止

to stop a new pernicious innovation which they called spooning.

“后座拥吻”这一伤风败俗的“新发明”。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

All right. So what happened?

好的，那么后来发生了什么呢？

Well, within a year this thing had taken off.

一年当中 jitney 发展非常迅猛，

But the jitney, by 1919, was regulated completely out of existence.

但在到了1919年， jitney 被立法完全禁止。

That's unfortunate ...

真的很可惜...

because, well, when you can't share a car, then you have to own one.

因为当你不能找人拼车的时候， 你就必须自己去买一辆。

And car ownership skyrocketed

所以也难怪

and it's no wonder that by 2007,

私家车行业开始蓬勃发展，到了2007年，

there was a car for every man, woman and child in the United States.

美国平均每个男人，女人， 小孩都拥有一辆车。

And that phenomenon had gone global.

而这个现象席卷了全球。

In China by 2011,

在中国，到2011年为止，

there were more car sales happening in China than in the US.

当时的汽车销售数量 已经超越美国。

Now, all this private ownership of course had a public cost.

当然，大量的私家车 导致了公众要付出高昂的代价。

In the US, we spend 7 billion hours a year,

在美国，我们每年都会在

交通拥堵上浪费70亿个小时，

wasted, sitting in traffic.

160 billion dollars in lost productivity,

间接导致了160亿美元的损失，

of course also sitting in traffic,

当然，当你坐在车里，

and one-fifth of all of our carbon footprint

有五分之一的碳排放，

is spewed out in the air by those cars that we're sitting in.

是我们在塞车时释放到空气中的。

Now, that's only four percent of our problem though.

这也只是占我们所有问题的4%而已，

Because if you have to own a car

因为，如果你必须拥有一台车，

then that means 96 percent of the time your car is sitting idle.

那就表示有96％的时间， 你的车是静止不动的。

And so, up to 30 percent of our land and our space

而且有将近30％的土地 及我们居住的空间

is used storing these hunks of steel.

要用来存放这些大铁怪。

We even have skyscrapers built for cars.

我们甚至已经有了 为这些车盖的摩天大厦。

That's the world we live in today.

这就是我们当今居住的世界。

Now, cities have been dealing with this problem for decades.

城市已经为解决这些问题 尝试了好几十年。

It's called mass transit.

叫做大众运输。

And even in a city like New York City,

但是即使是像纽约这样的城市，

one of the most densely populated in the world

这样一个在全世界拥有

and one of the most sophisticated mass transit systems in the world,

最密集的人口和最复杂的 公共交通的城市，

there are still 2.5 million cars that go over those bridges every day.

每天仍有250万辆车要经过那些桥。

Why is that?

为什么会这样？

Well, it's because mass transit hasn't yet figured out

因为大众运输还搞不清楚，

如何把每个人载到家门口。

how to get to everybody's doorstep.

And so back in San Francisco, where I live,

回到我住的地方，旧金山

the situation's much worse,

状况更糟糕，

in fact, much worse around the world.

事实上，比全世界其它地方还要糟。

Uber 在刚起步的2010年——

And so the beginning of Uber in 2010 was --

well, we just wanted to push a button and get a ride.

我们只是实现“一键叫车”。

我们还没有任何远大的野心。

We didn't have any grand ambitions.

But it just turned out

不过当非常多的人

that lots of people wanted to push a button and get a ride,

想要使用“一键叫车”时，

and ultimately what we started to see was a lot of duplicate rides.

我们后来发现这些路线中 有很多是重复的。

We saw a lot of people

我们发现有很多人

pushing the same button at the same time

在同一时刻叫车，

going essentially to the same place.

要去的几乎是同一个地方。

And so we started thinking about,

所以我们开始设想，

well, how do we make those two trips and turn them into one.

要如何把两条相近的线路合并成一条。

Because if we did, that ride would be a lot cheaper --

因为如果我们这样做的话， 那出车的成本会大大降低

up to 50 percent cheaper --

——最高能降一半——

and of course for the city

这样一来，

you've got a lot more people and a lot fewer cars.

城市里就会有更少的车 搭载更多的人。

And so the big question for us was:

那么摆在我们面前最大的问题就是：

would it work?

这可行吗？

Could you have a cheaper ride

能够让打车费足够便宜到

cheap enough that people would be willing to share it?

使人们愿意共乘吗？

And the answer, fortunately, is a resounding yes.

很幸运，答案是“响当当”的是。

In San Francisco,

在旧金山，

before uberPOOL, we had --

在我们推出 UberPOOL 之前——

well, everybody would take their car wherever the heck they wanted.

不管想去什么地方， 每个人都想开自己的车。

And the bright colors is where we have the most cars.

图上明亮的区域就是车流量最大的地方。

And once we introduced uberPOOL,

在我们推出 UberPOOL 之后，

你会发现明亮的部分大大减少。

well, you see there's not as many bright colors.

More people getting around the city in fewer cars,

这说明更多的人们乘坐了更少的车，

taking cars off the road.

减少了路上的车流量。

It looks like uberPOOL is working.

看起来 uberPOOL 效果不错。

And so we rolled it out in Los Angeles

所以八个月前我们也把它

eight months ago.

推广到了洛杉矶。

And since then, we've taken 7.9 million miles off the roads

从那时起，我们至今总共减少了 790万英里的总行驶里程，

也减少了1400吨的二氧化碳排放。

and we've taken 1.4 thousand metric tons of CO2 out of the air.

But the part that I'm really --

但我最在意的地方是——

(Applause)

（掌声）

But my favorite statistic --

不过我最喜欢的统计数据是——

别忘了，我来自洛杉矶，

remember, I'm from LA,

I spent years of my life

我一生中花了不少时间

sitting behind the wheel, going, "How do we fix this?" --

坐在拥挤的车潮中思考， “我们要如何解决这个问题？” ——

my favorite part is that eight months later,

——我最喜欢的部分是8个月后，

we have added 100,000 new people that are carpooling every week.

我们每周都有10万新人来拼车。

Now, in China everything is supersized,

在中国，所有数字都无比庞大。

and so we're doing 15 million uberPOOL trips per month,

我们每个月有1500万人次 使用uberPOOL，

that's 500,000 per day.

每天差不多50万。

And of course we're seeing that exponential growth happen.

我们见证了这种指数增长。

In fact, we're seeing it in LA, too.

实际上，这和我们在洛杉矶 见到的情况差不多。

And when I talk to my team, we don't talk about,

我们的团队讨论时从来不会说，

"Hey, well, 100,000 people carpooling every week and we're done."

“嘿，我们每周已经有10万人参与拼车了， 目标完成了。”

How do we get that to a million?

而是，我们该怎么样达到百万？

And in China, well, that could be several million.

实际上在中国，可能有几百万人次的潜力。

And so uberPOOL is a very great solution for urban carpooling.

所以，UberPOOL是解决城市内部 拼车问题的很好方案。

But what about the suburbs?

但是对于郊区是否同样适用呢？

This is the street where I grew up in Los Angeles,

这条街，是我在洛杉矶长大的街道，

it's actually a suburb called Northridge, California,

是加州典型的郊区，叫做Northridge。

and, well --

而...

look, those mailboxes, they kind of just go on forever.

看看这些邮箱，顺着街道绵延不绝。

And every morning at about the same time,

每天早上差不多同一时刻，

cars roll of out their driveway,

车子从他们的车道开出来，

most of them, one person in the car,

但他们大部分车子里只有一个人，

and they go to work, they go to their place of work.

然后开车去工作的地方。

So the question for us is:

所以我们的问题是：

well, how do we turn

我们要如何把

所有这些通勤车——

all of these commuter cars --

and literally there's tens of millions of them --

不夸张地说，差不多好几千万台——

how do we turn all these commuter cars into shared cars?

我们要如何把这些通勤车转换成共乘车？

Well, we have something for this that we recently launched called uberCOMMUTE.

为了解决这个问题，我们最近设计了一个叫UberCOMMUTE的产品。

You get up in the morning, get ready for work, get your coffee,

当你早上起来，准备去上班，喝完一杯咖啡，

go to your car

走向你的车，

and you light up the Uber app,

只要打开 Uber APP，

and all of a sudden,

一眨眼的功夫，

you become an Uber driver.

你就成为了一名Uber司机。

And we'll match you up with one of your neighbors

我们会为你自动匹配和你有着

on your way to work

同样上班路线的邻居们，

and it's a really great thing.

这件事还真是不错。

现在只有一个障碍要克服...

There's just one hitch ...

it's called regulation.

它叫做法规。

So 54 cents a mile, what is that?

每英里54美分，这是什么？

Well, that is what the US government

这是美国政府定义的

has determined that the cost of owning a car is per mile.

拥有一辆车每英里的成本。

You can pick up anybody in the United States

在美国，任何人提前预约，

and take them wherever they want to go at a moment's notice,

你就可以载他们到任何他们想去的地方，

for 54 cents a mile or less.

但你只能收取每英里54美分。

But if you charge 60 cents a mile, you're a criminal.

但如果你每英里收费 超过60美分，你就犯法了。

But what if for 60 cents a mile

但如果每英里60美分，

we could get half a million more people carpooling in Los Angeles?

我们就可以吸引超过50万人 在洛杉矶加入共乘制度呢？

And what if at 60 cents a mile

或如果每英里60美分，

we could get 50 million people carpooling in the United States?

我们可以吸引超过5000万人 在美国加入共乘制度呢？

If we could,

如果我们可以的话，

it's obviously something we should do.

这很明显是我们应该做的。

And so it goes back to the lesson of the jitney.

所以，这带我们回到了jitney的教训。

If by 1915 this thing was taking off,

如果在1915年这个生意刚起步时，

imagine without the regulations that happened,

想像一下，没有这些规定的束缚，

if that thing could just keep going.

如果jitney可以一直发展下去，会如何呢？

How would our cities be different today?

今日的城市会有多大的不同？

我们现在的停车场是否就能变成公园？

Would we have parks in the place of parking lots?

Well, we lost that chance.

是的，我们已经错过了这次机会。

But technology has given us another opportunity.

但是科技为我们提供了一次新的机会。

Now, I'm as excited as anybody else about self-driving cars

现在，我和其他人一样， 对自动驾驶感到十分的兴奋。

but do we have to really wait five, 10 or even 20 years

但我们真的必须再等 5年，10年，甚至20年

to make our new cities a reality?

才能打造一座新城市吗？

With the technology in our pockets today,

通过我们口袋里的科技，

and a little smart regulation,

和多一点点人性化的法规，

we can turn every car into a shared car,

我们就可以把每辆车变成共乘车，

and we can reclaim our cities starting today.

而且从今天就可以开始 拯救我们的城市。

Thank you.

谢谢各位！

(Applause)

（掌声）

Chris Anderson: Travis, thank you.

Chris Anderson（CA）： Travis, 谢谢你。

Travis Kalanick: Thank you.

Travis Kalanick（TK）：谢谢你。

CA: You know -- I mean the company you've built is absolutely astounding.

CA：我觉得你的公司确实很了不起。

You only just talked about a small part of it here --

刚刚你谈论了其中一个很小的部分——

a powerful part --

——也是很重要的部分——

the idea of turning cars into public transport like that,

把大家的车变成 大众运输工具的这个想法。

it's cool.

真的很酷！

But I've got a couple other questions

不过我也有一些问题，

because I know they're out there on people's minds.

因为我知道其他人也很关心。

So first of all, last week I think it was,

首先，上礼拜，如果我没记错的话，

I switched on my phone and tried to book an Uber

我打开手机，试着要从 Uber 叫车，

但我发现我找不到Uber的App了。

and I couldn't find the app.

You had this very radical, very bold, brave redesign.

你对 Uber图标进行的重新设计 真的很坚决和彻底，勇气可嘉。

TK: Sure.

TK: 是的。

CA: How did it go?

CA: 这事你怎么看？

是不是注意到其他人那天 也找不到你们的App了呢？

Did you notice other people not finding the app that day?

Are you going to win people over for this redesign?

你是否准备好在新设计上 重新赢取用户呢？

TK: Well, first I should probably just say,

TK: 嗯，我首先要说的是，

well, what we were trying to accomplish.

我们想要完善的，

And I think if you know a little bit about our history,

实际上和我们公司的历史有关，

it makes a lot more sense.

重新设计对此有非常大的意义。

Which is, when we first got started,

当我们一开始创立Uber的时候，

it was just black cars.

Uber里的车全都是黑色的。

It was literally you push a button and get an S-Class.

我们想让你按下Uber的按钮之后， 就会有S级车来为你服务。

And so what we did

所以我们本来想做的

was almost what I would call an immature version of a luxury brand

是一个打车品牌的奢侈品， 通过模拟豪华车的车标

that looked like a badge on a luxury car.

把Uber做成奢侈品的象征。

And as we've gone worldwide

但当我们成长为全球化的公司，

and gone from S-Classes to auto rickshaws in India,

从S级骄车到印度的小黄包车，

it became something that was important for us

这变成了一个对我们相当有意义的事，

to be more accessible,

因为这样可以让Uber变的平易近人，

to be more hyperlocal,

更加的本土化，

to be about the cities we were in

更加在乎我们居住的城市，

and that's what you see with the patterns and colors.

这就是你看到我们公司的模式和颜色。

And to be more iconic,

需要变得更图像化，

because a U doesn't mean anything in Sanskrit,

是因为U无论在印度语

and a U doesn't mean anything in Mandarin.

还是在汉语中都没有具体的含义，

And so that was a little bit what it was about.

所以重新设计是有这样一层原因的。

Now, when you first roll out something like that,

当你第一次推出这样的设计，

I mean, your hands are sweating,

肯定会紧张到手心冒汗，

you've got --

你会——

you know, you're a little worried.

有一点担心。

What we saw is a lot of people --

我们看到的是很大一群人——

actually, at the beginning, we saw a lot more people opening the app

实际上，刚开始我们看到 很多人打开了App，

because they were curious what they would find when they opened it.

因为他们很好奇 打开时会有什么发现。

And our numbers were slightly up from what we expected.

而我们得到的数字比预期的稍为高一点。

CA: OK, that's cool.

CA: 好的，这确实非常酷。

Now, so you, yourself, are something of an enigma, I would say.

我不得不说，你现在 在很多人看来挺神秘的。

Your supporters and investors, who have been with you the whole way,

你的支持者与投资者 这一路来一直跟随着你，

believe that the only chance

他们相信只有

of sort of taking on the powerful, entrenched interests

残忍无情的竞争者才能担负起

这责任重大的机会，

of taxi industry and so forth,

is to have someone who is a fierce, relentless competitor,

挑战根深蒂固的计程车行业利益等等，

which you've certainly proved to be.

而你最近也证明你做到了。

Some people feel you've almost taken that culture too far,

一些人感觉你把这种文化带的太远了，

and you know -- like a year or two ago

你也知道——在一到两年前，

there was a huge controversy where a lot of women got upset.

对于 Uber 有次巨大的争论， 很多的女士感觉相当失望。

How did it feel like inside the company during that period?

公司在那段时间，内部是什么感觉？

Did you notice a loss of business?

你是否注意到公司出现了任何损失？

Did you learn anything from that?

或者说你在这个过程中学到了什么？

TK: Well, look, I think --

TK:我觉得——

I've been an entrepreneur since I've been in high school

我从高中就已经是个企业家，

and you have --

你在困难时期，

In various different ways an entrepreneur will see hard times

一定会遇到各种不同的挑战，

and for us,

对我们来说，

it was about a year and a half ago,

一年半前的事件，

and for us it was hard times, too.

也是我们的困难时期。

Now, inside, we felt like --

在公司内部，我们感觉——

I guess at the end of the day

我们当时感觉到

we felt like we were good people doing good work,

“我们是对的人在做对的事”，

but on the outside that wasn't evident.

但在外人看来，就没那么明显。

And so there was a lot that we had to do

所以，可以这么说——

to sort of --

我们还有很多方面要努力——

我们是从一个很小的公司开始的——

We'd gone from a very small company --

I mean if you go literally two and a half years ago,

我的意思是，如果你回到2年半前，

our company was 400 people,

我们公司只有400人，

and today it's 6,500.

现在已经有6500人。

And so when you go through that growth,

所以，当你经历了整个成长的过程，

you have to sort of cement your cultural values

你就必须凝聚公司的文化价值，

and talk about them all of the time.

并随时谈论它们。

And make sure that people are constantly checking

并且你需要人们能够持续地认可

to say, "Are we good people doing good work?"

你们是“对的人在做对的事”。

And if you check those boxes,

如果你能够保证这些，

the next part of that is making sure you're telling your story.

那么剩下的部分就是你要讲述你的故事，

And I think we learned a lot of lessons

而我认为我们得到很多教训，

but I think at the end of it we came out stronger.

但最后，我们会变得更坚强。

But it was certainly a difficult period.

虽然这会是一段很困难的时期。

CA: 在我看来，每次你做出改变的时候，

CA: It seems to me, everywhere you turn,

you're facing people who occasionally give you a hard time.

你都会直面别人给你提出的难题。

Some Uber drivers in New York and elsewhere

纽约和其他地方的一些Uber司机

are mad as hell now because you changed the fees

现在已经气疯了，因为你改变勒费率，

and they can barely -- they claim -- barely afford the deal anymore.

他们声称——他们几乎干不下去了。

How --

你要如何——

You know, you said that you started this originally --

就如你说的，你创办公司的初衷——

just the coolness of pressing a button and summoning a ride.

仅是想简单地按下按钮打辆车而已。

This thing's taken off,

但公司却发展得非常快，

you're affecting the whole global economy, basically, at this point.

基本在目前这个时间点上， 你正在影响全球经济。

You're being forced to be, whether you want it or not,

不管你想不想， 你已经不得不这么做，

a kind of global visionary who's changing the world.

你是用一种长远的世界观 在改变这个世界。

I mean -- who are you?

我的意思是——你是谁？

Do you want that?

你真的有想过会这样吗？

Are you ready to go with that and be what that takes?

你有准备好并承担这一切吗？

TK: Well, there's a few things packed in that question, so --

TK: 好吧，你一时间 问了好几个问题，所以——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

First is on the pricing side --

首先是价格方面——

I mean, keep in mind, right?

我的意思是，要记住一点，对吧？

UberX, when we first started,

UberX，我们刚开始这个项目的时候，

was literally 10 or 15 percent cheaper than our black car product.

理论上要比我们的黑色 专车产品便宜10%到15%。

It's now

现在，

in many cities, half the price of a taxi.

在很多城市， Uber 还比出租车 便宜差不多一半。

And we have all the data to show

我们所有的资料显示，

that the divers are making more per hour than they would as taxi drivers.

所有的驾驶员每小时的收入 比他们当出租车司机时还要多。

What happens is when the price goes down,

当价格下降后，

people are more likely to take Uber

人们就更喜欢搭 Uber 了，

at different times of the day than they otherwise would have,

同一天不同的时间一直如此，

and they're more likely to use it in places they wouldn't have before.

他们在一些场合似乎还 比之前更喜欢使用Uber。

And what that means for a driver is wherever he or she drops somebody off,

这就意味着，驾驶员无论 把乘客送到哪里，

they're much more likely to get a pickup and get back in.

他们几乎是马上又拉到一个乘客， 可以继续工作了。

And so what that means is more trips per hour,

也就是说，每个小时的载客次数变多了，

more minutes of the hour where they're productive

每小时的服务分钟也变多了，

and actually, earnings come up.

且实际上收入也增加了。

And we have cities where we've done literally five or six price cuts

我们有一些城市，已经降价5-6次，

and have seen those price cuts go up over time.

而且随着时间越久，价格就降得越多。

So even in New York --

所以，即使是在纽约——

We have a blog post we call "4 Septembers" --

我们有一篇博客文章，叫做“4个九月”——

compare the earnings

内容就是

September after September after September.

把每年9月份的收入

Same month every year.

进行比较。

And we see the earnings going up over time

我们可以看到当价格下降后，

as the price comes down.

司机反而赚的越多。

And there's a perfect price point -- you can't go down forever.

到时会有一个完美的价格档—— 你不能永远降价下去。

And in those places where we bring the price down

在有些地方，我们降价后，

but we don't see those earnings pop,

但看不到收入增加，

we bring the prices back up.

我们就会再调整回来。

So that addresses that first part.

所以这是我对第一部分的回答。

And then the enigma and all of this --

至于第二部分，谜一般的人， 还有所有的事儿——

I mean, the kind of entrepreneur I am

我的回答是，我是一个对

is one that gets really excited about solving hard problems.

解决难题会感到很兴奋的创业者。

And the way I like to describe it is it's kind of like a math professor.

我喜欢这样形容这件事， 就是有点像数学教授。

You know? If a math professor doesn't have hard problems to solve,

如果一个数学教授 没有困难的问题可以解决，

that's a really sad math professor.

那他真是一个可悲的教授。

And so at Uber we like the hard problems

我们Uber也是这样， 我们非常喜欢难题，

and we like getting excited about those and solving them.

在解决它们的过程中 我们会获得很大的满足。

But we don't want just any math problem,

但我们要的不是只有数学问题，

我们要的是能找到最难的问题，

we want the hardest ones that we can possibly find,

and we want the one that if you solve it,

并找出那个可以解决问题的关键因子，

there's a little bit of a wow factor.

那才是我们最想要的。

CA: 在几年之后——

CA: In a couple years' time --

say five years' time, I don't know when --

有些人说是五年之后， 其实我也不知道是什么时候——

you roll out your incredible self-driving cars,

你会推出炫酷的无人驾驶车服务，

at probably a lower cost than you currently pay for an Uber ride.

可能比现在打 Uber 还便宜。

What do you say to your army of a million drivers plus at that time?

到时候，面对你的百万 驾驶人军队时，你要怎么说？

TK: Explain that again -- at which time?

TK：请再说一遍，大概什么时候？

CA: At the time when self-driving cars are coming --

CA： 在自动驾驶到来的时候——

TK: Sure, sure, sure. Sorry, I missed that.

TK：好的，好的，好的， 抱歉，我没听清楚。

CA: What do you say to a driver?

CA： 面对他们你要怎么说？

TK: Well, look, I think the first part is it's going to take --

TK：好吧，我认为首先——

it's likely going to take a lot longer

无人驾驶车还有一段

than I think some of the hype or media might expect.

比广告或媒体预测的 还要长的路要走。

That's part one.

这是第一部分。

Part two is it's going to also take --

其次，会有一段过渡时期——

there's going to be a long transition.

这段时间也会很长。

These cars will work in certain places and not in others.

自动驾驶一开始只能在特定的地方使用， 不是在所有地方都行得通。

For us it's an interesting challenge, right?

不过对我们来说，这也是个 很有意思的挑战，对吧？

Because, well --

因为——

Google's been investing in this since 2007,

谷歌从2007年就开始研究自动驾驶，

Tesla's going to be doing it, Apple's going to be doing it,

特斯拉也开始投资， 苹果也开始投资，

the manufacturers are going to be doing it.

所有的制造商都已经准备好生产了。

This is a world that's going to exist, and for good reason.

这是一个让世界永续生存的好理由。

A million people die a year in cars.

每年有100万人死于车祸。

And we already looked at the billions or even trillions of hours worldwide

而且我们已经看到人类 每年要花几十亿甚至几兆个小时

that people are spending sitting in them, driving frustrated, anxious.

浪费在车子里面，焦虑，沮丧。

And think about the quality of life that improves

想像一下，

当你把时间还给人们， 让他们不用再忧心忡忡，

when you give people their time back

生活品质会改善多少。

and it's not so anxiety-ridden.

So I think there's a lot of good.

所以，我认为会有很多好处。

And so the way we think about it is that it's a challenge,

我们认为这件事是一个挑战，

but one for optimistic leadership,

但是一种对乐观领导力的挑战。

Where instead of resisting --

而不是像之前的出租车业

resisting technology,

或电车业

maybe like the taxi industry, or the trolley industry --

要对抗、 拒绝科技，

we have to embrace it or be a part of the future.

我们必须拥抱它或把它成为 我们未来的一部分。

But how do we optimistically lead through it?

但我们要如何乐观地领衔度过这一时期呢？

Are there ways to partner with cities?

有没有与城市 成为伙伴关系的方式？

Are there ways to have education systems, vocational training, etc.,

在过渡期间，有没有教育系统或 职业训练

for that transition period.

等等的方式呢？

It will take a lot longer than I think we all expect,

这会比我认为大家期待的时间还要长，

especially that transition period.

特别是过渡时期。

But it is a world that's going to exist,

但这才是我们面对的世界，

and it is going to be a better world.

而且会是一个更美好的世界。

CA: Travis, what you're building is absolutely incredible

CA：Travis，你的贡献真的很了不起，

and I'm hugely grateful to you for coming to TED and sharing so openly.

我非常荣幸能邀请你来TED， 并敞开心胸与我们分享。

Thank you so much. TK: Thank you very much.

非常谢谢你。 TK：非常谢谢你。

（掌声）

(Applause)