请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Elvis Liu
校对人员: Tom Liu
00:12
Imagine that you are a product designer.
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把自己想象成一个产品设计师。
00:16
And you've designed a product,
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你设计了一种产品
00:18
a new type of product,
called the human immune system.
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一种叫做人体免疫机制的新产品
00:23
You're pitching this product
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你在向一个持质疑态度
00:24
to a skeptical, strictly
no-nonsense manager.
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不容许讲废话的经理推销这种产品
00:28
Let's call him Bob.
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让我们叫他鲍勃
00:29
I think we all know
at least one Bob, right?
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我想每个人都至少认识一个鲍勃,对吧
00:33
How would that go?
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将会发生什么呢
00:35
Bob, I've got this incredible idea
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鲍勃,我有了一个美妙的想法
00:37
for a completely new type
of personal health product.
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我要做一种全新的个人健康产品
00:40
It's called the human immune system.
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它叫做人体免疫机制
00:43
I can see from your face that
you're having some problems with this.
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我能从你的反应看出你不太相信
00:46
Don't worry. I know it's very complicated.
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不要担心,我知道这不好理解
00:48
I don't want to take you
through the gory details,
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我不会赘述令人肉麻的细节
00:51
I just want to tell you about some
of the amazing features of this product.
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我只想告诉你这种产品的几个惊人之处
00:55
First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy
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首先,它巧妙地使用了庞大性
00:58
by having millions of copies
of each component --
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它拥有上百万备用的同种组织
01:01
leukocytes, white blood cells --
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——比如血白细胞——
01:04
before they're actually needed,
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来制造应对突发情况的
01:05
to create a massive buffer
against the unexpected.
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有效方案
01:10
And it cleverly leverages diversity
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其次它有着多样性
01:13
by having not just leukocytes
but B cells, T cells,
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不只是有白血细胞,
还有B细胞、T细胞、
01:17
natural killer cells, antibodies.
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自然杀伤细胞和抗体
01:19
The components don't really matter.
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重要的不是它的组成部分
01:21
The point is that together,
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重要的是合在一起
01:23
this diversity of different approaches
can cope with more or less anything
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这种有着不同种类的多样性
01:27
that evolution has been able to throw up.
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几乎可以解决进化中出现的所有问题
01:31
And the design is completely modular.
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而且它的设计十分模块化
01:35
You have the surface barrier
of the human skin,
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有着人体皮肤的表面保护
01:39
you have the very rapidly reacting
innate immune system
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不仅有与生俱来的反应敏捷的免疫机制
01:42
and then you have the highly targeted
adaptive immune system.
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还有着适应力极强的高效免疫系统
01:47
The point is, that if one system fails,
another can take over,
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即使一种机制失效
另一种也能及时补上
01:50
creating a virtually foolproof system.
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创造出十分安全的系统
01:55
I can see I'm losing you, Bob,
but stay with me,
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我知道你开始听不懂了,鲍勃
但请听我说完
01:57
because here is the really killer feature.
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因为现在才是产品的杀手锏
02:01
The product is completely adaptive.
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这种产品具有极强的适应力
02:04
It's able to actually develop
targeted antibodies
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它可以针对从未见过的病原
02:09
to threats that it's never
even met before.
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制造出相应的抗体
02:12
It actually also does this
with incredible prudence,
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它还十分精准
02:17
detecting and reacting
to every tiny threat,
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发现并对每种危机做出反应
02:21
and furthermore, remembering
every previous threat,
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并且记住每一次外界入侵
02:25
in case they are ever encountered again.
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以防再次遭遇同种危险
02:28
What I'm pitching you today
is actually not a stand-alone product.
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我今天想和你们讲的
其实不是一种独立运作的产品
02:33
The product is embedded
in the larger system of the human body,
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这种产品与整个人体相结合
02:38
and it works in complete harmony
with that system,
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并且和整体和谐共处
02:40
to create this unprecedented level
of biological protection.
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创造出了史无前例的生物保护机制
02:44
So Bob, just tell me honestly,
what do you think of my product?
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鲍勃,请你诚实地告诉我
你觉得这款产品怎么样?
02:48
And Bob may say something like,
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鲍勃可能会说
02:50
I sincerely appreciate
the effort and passion
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我真挚地赞赏你在展示中
02:53
that have gone into your presentation,
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所表现出的努力和热情
02:56
blah blah blah --
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啦啦啦啦……
02:57
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:59
But honestly, it's total nonsense.
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但是讲实话,简直是胡说八道
03:04
You seem to be saying that the key
selling points of your product
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你似乎在讲你产品的买点
03:07
are that it is inefficient and complex.
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是它的极其低效和冗杂
03:10
Didn't they teach you 80-20?
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你难道没有学过80/20法则吗?
03:13
And furthermore, you're saying
that this product is siloed.
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而且你还似乎在说这种产品很浪费
03:17
It overreacts,
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它反应过激
03:19
makes things up as it goes along
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制造出东西又无的放矢
03:20
and is actually designed
for somebody else's benefit.
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效益明显不高
03:23
I'm sorry to break it to you,
but I don't think this one is a winner.
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很抱歉让你遗憾了
但它肯定没有希望
03:27
If we went with Bob's philosophy,
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如果我们同意鲍勃的观点
03:29
I think we'd actually end up
with a more efficient immune system.
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我们实际上肯定了一种更为高效的免疫系统
03:32
And efficiency is always important
in the short term.
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而且效率在短期来说往往十分重要
03:36
Less complex, more efficient,
more bang for the buck.
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少些复杂,多些效率
更合算些
03:40
Who could say no to that?
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谁会拒绝这些好处呢?
03:42
Unfortunately, there's one
very tiny problem,
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不幸的是,有一个小小的问题
03:44
and that is that the user
of this product, you or I,
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那就是如果你我有着这样的免疫系统
03:47
would probably die
within one week of the next winter,
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那么在遭遇新型传染病毒时
03:51
when we encountered a new strain
of the influenza virus.
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你我可能活不过下一个冬天的头一周
03:57
I first became interested
in biology and business,
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我第一次对生物与商业
04:01
and longevity and resilience,
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以及持久性和抗压性赶到兴趣
04:03
when I was asked a very unusual question
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是在被一个全球科技公司的CEO
04:06
by the CEO of a global tech company.
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问了一个问题时
04:09
And the question was:
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那个问题是
04:10
What do we have to do to make sure
that our company lasts 100 years?
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怎样确保我们的公司能够持续运作100年?
04:18
A seemingly innocent question,
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看上去是一个幼稚的问题
04:20
but actually, it's a little trickier
than you might think,
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但是问题远没有你想的这么简单
04:24
considering that the average
US public company now
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美国现在普通的公共公司
04:28
can expect a life span of only 30 years.
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通常只有30年的寿命
04:33
That is less than half of the life span
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这几乎是它的员工
04:35
that its employees can expect to enjoy.
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工作寿命的一半
04:39
Now, if you were the CEO
of such a company,
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现在,如果你是这样一个公司的CEO
04:42
badgered by investors
and buffeted by change,
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被投资者纠缠不放
因变化而遭受打击
04:46
we might forgive you
for not even worrying too much
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可以理解你不为
04:48
about what happens 30 years out.
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之后30年的事操心太多
04:51
But here's something that should
keep you awake at night:
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但有些事可能会让你难以入眠
04:55
the probability that your company
will not be around in five year's time,
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你的公司在5年后倒闭的可能性
04:59
on average, is now
a staggering 32 percent.
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平均在32%上下浮动
05:04
That's a one in three chance
that your company will be taken over
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也就是有三分之一的几率
05:08
or will fail within just five years.
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你的公司会在5年后被转手或是倒闭
05:13
Let's come back
to our tech CEO's question.
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又来说说科技公司老板的问题
05:16
Where better to turn
for advice than nature,
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哪里有向比大自然求教更好的呢?
05:19
that's been in the business
of life and death
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大自然已经在生死轮回的游戏中
05:22
for longer than any company?
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比任何公司存活得都要久了
05:27
As a lapsed biologist,
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作为一个不务正业的生物学家
05:28
I decided to immediately call
a real biologist,
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我马上联系了一个更专业的生物学者
05:32
my friend Simon Levin,
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我朋友赛门·莱文
05:34
Professor of Biology and Mathematics
at Princeton University.
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普林斯顿大学的生物学和数学教授
05:38
Together, we looked at a variety
of biological systems,
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我们共同研究了许多生态系统
05:42
ranging from natural tropical rainforests
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从自然热带雨林
05:45
through to managed forests and fisheries.
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到人造森林和鱼塘
05:48
And we asked ourselves the question:
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我们问了自己一个问题
05:50
What makes these systems
resilient and enduring?
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是什么使这些系统具有抗压能力
和持续性
05:56
And what we found
was that the same six principles
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我们发现恰恰是支撑着人体免疫系统的
06:00
that we saw underpinning
the miracle of the human immune system
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六条规律
06:03
actually cropped up again and again,
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一次又一次地表现出来
06:07
from redundancy through to embeddedness.
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从庞大性到镶嵌性
06:11
In fact, we saw these principles
not only in biologically enduring systems,
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事实上,我们不只是在生物持久的系统中
发现这些规律
06:15
we also found them
being very characteristic
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我们还发现
06:18
of long-lived social systems,
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它们在寿命长久的社会系统中
也表现得十分突出
06:20
like the Roman Empire
and the Catholic Church,
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就像在罗马帝国
和天主教堂中的表现
06:22
believe it or not.
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——信不信由你——
06:24
We also went on to look at business,
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我们还研究了商界
06:26
and found that these very same properties
also characterized businesses
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也发现它们在坚韧且长久的企业中
06:30
that were resilient and long-lived,
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表现的非常明显
06:32
and we noted their absence
from ones which were short-lived.
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并且发现了短命的企业中这种
品质的缺失
06:39
Let's first take a look at what happens
when the corporate immune system
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先来看看当企业的免疫机制失效时
06:43
collapses.
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会发生什么
06:45
This beautiful building is part
of the Shitennoji Temple Complex
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这栋美丽的建筑是日本大阪
四天王寺寺庙的一部分
06:49
in Osaka, Japan.
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06:51
In fact, it's one of the oldest
temples in Japan.
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事实上它是日本最老的建筑之一
06:55
It was built by a Korean artisan,
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它由一个韩国工匠修建
06:57
because at the time,
Japan was not yet building temples.
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由于在那时日本还不会修建寺庙
07:00
And this Korean artisan went on
to found a temple-building company.
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这个韩国工匠创建了一个
修建寺庙的公司
07:07
Amazingly, his company, Kongō Gumi,
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十分神奇的是,他的公司 Kongō Gumi
07:10
was still around 1,428 years later.
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在1480年后仍然存在
07:15
In fact, it became the oldest
continuously operating company
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实际上,它成为了世界上持续经营的
07:19
in the world.
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最古老的公司
07:21
So how is Kongō Gumi doing today?
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Kongō Gumi现在怎么样了呢
07:26
Not too well, I'm afraid.
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恐怕不是很好
07:28
It borrowed very heavily
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在日本经济泡沫时期
07:29
during the bubble period
of the Japanese economy,
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借了很重的债
07:32
to invest in real estate.
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来投资房地产
07:34
And when the bubble burst,
it couldn't refinance its loans.
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当经济泡沫破裂时
它不能偿还债务
07:38
The company failed,
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公司破产了
07:39
and it was taken over
by a major construction company.
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被一所主流建筑公司收购
07:44
Tragically, after 40 generations
of very careful stewardship
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可悲的是,在 Kongō家族40代的
07:49
by the Kongō family,
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苦心经营之后
07:51
Kongō Gumi succumbed
to a spectacular lapse
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Kongō Gumi最终屈服于在精准运营上
07:55
in the ability to apply
a principle of prudence.
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的巨大失败
08:00
Speaking of company failures:
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讲到公司倒闭
08:03
we're all familiar
with the failure of Kodak,
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我们都熟悉柯达公司的失败
08:06
the company that declared bankruptcy
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柯达在2012年一月
08:09
in January 2012.
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宣布破产
08:13
Much more interesting,
however, is the question:
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然而更为有趣的是:
08:17
Why did Fujifilm --
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为什么富士胶片
08:19
same product, same pressures
from digital technology, same time --
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——同样的产品,相同的数码科技界的压力
同样的时间段——
08:24
why was Fujifilm
able to survive and flourish?
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为什么富士胶片能够存活下来
并且欣欣向荣?
08:30
Fujifilm used its capabilities
in chemistry, material science and optics
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富士胶片运用了自己在
化学,材料科学和光学上的造诣
08:37
to diversify into a number of areas,
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将自己的涉及领域多样化
08:40
ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals,
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从化妆品到医药
08:44
to medical systems to biomaterials.
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到医学系统、到生物材料
08:46
Some of these diversification
attempts failed.
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有一些多样化的尝试失败了
08:49
But in aggregate,
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但是总体来说
08:51
it was able to adapt
its portfolio sufficiently
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它能够充足地转换自己的组合
08:55
to survive and flourish.
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从而幸存并且繁荣
08:58
As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it,
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就像其CEO, Komori先生说的
09:01
the strategy succeeded
because it had "more pockets and drawers"
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这种策略之所以成功
是因为它比同行有更多的“口袋”和“抽屉”
09:05
than the rivals.
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09:07
He meant, of course,
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他的意思当然是
09:08
that they were able to create
more options than the rivals.
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他们比同行创造了更多的选择空间
09:13
Fujifilm survived because it applied
the principles of prudence,
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富士胶片存活了下来
因为它采用了这些规律:精准
09:17
diversity
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多样化
09:18
and adaptation.
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和适应能力
09:21
A catastrophic factory fire,
like the one we see here,
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像我们看到的这张图
一场灾难性的工厂大火
09:25
completely wiped out, in one evening,
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在一个晚上完全地摧毁了
09:28
the only plant which supplied Toyota
with valves for car-braking systems.
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为丰田刹车系统提供阀门的唯一
一个工厂
09:36
The ultimate test of resilience.
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这是对抗压能力的终极考验
09:40
Car production ground
to a screeching halt.
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汽车生产进入了中断
09:44
How was it, then, that Toyota
was able to recover car production?
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之后怎么样了呢?丰田是否
能否重整旗鼓恢复汽车生产?
09:50
Can you imagine how long it took?
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你能想象这花了多长时间吗?
09:52
Just five days.
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仅仅只有五天
09:54
From having no braking valves
to complete recovery in five days.
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从没有刹车阀门到完全恢复生产
只用了五天时间
09:58
How was this possible?
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这怎么可能呢?
10:00
Toyota managed its network of suppliers
in such a collaborative manner
175
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5286
丰田用一种合作的方式组织
供销商网络
10:06
that it could work very quickly
and smoothly with suppliers
176
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4236
因此能够与供销商
迅速顺利地合作
10:10
to repurpose production,
177
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1711
来重振生产
10:13
fill the missing braking valve capacity
178
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2530
弥补缺失的刹车阀门生产能力
10:15
and have car production come online again.
179
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让汽车生产重新运作
10:20
Toyota applied the principles
of modularity of its supply network,
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4302
丰田运用了供给网络的模块化原理
10:24
embeddedness in an integrated system
181
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在相互结合的系统中的镶嵌原理
10:27
and the functional redundancy
to be able to repurpose, smoothly,
182
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4036
以及有效的庞大性
来达到顺利重整
10:31
existing capacity.
183
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现有生产能力的效果
10:34
Now fortunately, few companies
succumb to catastrophic fires.
184
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幸运的是,很少有公司
因大火而破产
10:39
But we do read in the newspaper
every day about companies
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3093
但我们却每天在报纸上读到
10:42
succumbing to the disruption
of technology.
186
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3399
有公司因为科技的干扰而倒闭
10:46
How is it, then, that the consumer
optics giant Essilor
187
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3922
光学巨头伊视路
10:50
is able to avoid technology disruption,
and even profit from it?
188
650558
4046
是怎样避免科技干扰
甚至从中获利的呢?
10:55
And yes, technology disruption
is not only a big deal
189
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3444
是的,科技干扰不仅仅在软件和
电子业上
10:58
in software and electronics.
190
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2085
意义重大
11:01
Essilor carefully scans
the competitive environment
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3738
伊视路仔细地在竞争环境中
11:06
for potentially disruptive technologies.
192
666262
2252
审查了可能存在的干扰科技
11:09
It acquires those technologies very early,
193
669483
2810
在这些科技的价格变得高昂
或者同行得到它们之前
11:12
before they've become expensive
or competitors have mobilized around them,
194
672317
3776
伊视路很早就获取了这些科技
11:16
and it then develops
those technologies itself,
195
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2545
然后它自己发展它们
11:19
even at the risk of failure
196
679297
1942
甚至冒着失败
11:21
or the risk of self-disruption.
197
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2125
和自我干扰的风险
11:24
Essilor stays ahead of its game,
198
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2618
伊视路保持在了前列
11:27
and has delivered spectacular performance
199
687051
2006
通过运用精准和适应的法则
11:29
for over 40 years,
200
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1443
在近40年内
11:30
by using the principles
of prudence and adaptation.
201
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4197
它表现了出色的成绩
11:35
OK, if these principles are so powerful,
you might be thinking,
202
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3397
好了,既然这些法则如此强大
你可能会想
11:39
why are they not commonplace in business?
203
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2907
为什么在商界不常见到它们呢?
11:42
Why do we not use these words every day?
204
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2226
为什么它们还不是老生常谈?
11:45
Well, change has to first
start in the mind.
205
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2327
好吧,改变首先得从思想开始
11:47
If we think back to our pitch to Bob,
206
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2045
如果我们回想对鲍勃的推销
11:50
in order to apply the principles
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710045
2388
为了运用支撑人体免疫机制的
11:52
that underpin the miracle
of the human immune system,
208
712457
2757
几条法则
11:55
we first need to think differently
209
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2404
我们首先得从另一个角度
11:58
about business.
210
718255
1170
来思考商业
11:59
Now typically, when we think
about business,
211
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2707
通常,当我们想到商业的时候
12:02
we use what I call "mechanical thinking."
212
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2482
我们使用我所谓的“力学思考法”
12:05
We set goals,
213
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1637
我们制定目标
12:07
we analyze problems,
214
727623
1539
分析问题
12:09
we construct and we adhere to plans,
215
729186
2327
制定并执行计划
12:11
and more than anything else,
216
731537
1343
最为重要的是
12:12
we stress efficiency
and short-term performance.
217
732904
3011
我们强调效率和短期表现
12:16
Now, don't get me wrong --
218
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1261
现在,请不要搞错
12:17
this is a splendidly practical
and effective way
219
737618
3114
这是一种在相对稳定的环境中
12:20
of addressing relatively simple challenges
220
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2440
解决较为简单的问题时
12:23
in relatively stable environments.
221
743220
1990
十分有效和实际的方式
12:26
It's the way that Bob -- and probably
many of us, myself included --
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746005
3462
这是鲍勃——还有包括我在内的
我们中许多人——
12:29
process most business problems
we're faced with every day.
223
749491
2969
处理我们每天面临的大多数
商业问题的办法
12:33
In fact, it was a pretty good
mental model for business --
224
753374
3638
事实上,这曾是一种良好的
商业思想模型
12:37
overall --
225
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1521
总体地——
12:38
until about the mid-1980s,
226
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2028
直到20世纪80年代中期
12:40
when the conjunction of globalization
227
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3364
全球化和科技革命、通信技术的结合
12:44
and a revolution in technology
and telecommunications
228
764021
2523
使得商业变得
12:46
made business far more
dynamic and unpredictable.
229
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2438
比以往更具活力、更难以预测
12:49
But what about those more dynamic
and unpredictable situations
230
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3078
那么当我们现在面临更具活力和
不可预测性的情况时
12:52
that we now increasingly face?
231
772599
2091
该怎么应对呢?
12:55
I think in addition
to the mechanical thinking,
232
775597
2415
我认为除了力学思考法外
12:58
we now need to master the art
of biological thinking,
233
778036
3693
现在我们得掌握生物思考
的艺术
13:02
as embodied by our six principles.
234
782417
1961
就像我们的六条守则所传达的一样
13:05
In other words, we need to think
more modestly and subtly
235
785245
3653
换言之,我们得更为谦虚和细致地考虑
13:08
about when and how
236
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2296
何时、怎样
13:11
we can shape, rather than control,
237
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2772
塑造而不是控制
13:14
unpredictable and complex situations.
238
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3210
不可预测的复杂情况
13:19
It's a little like the difference
between throwing a ball
239
799551
3110
这有点像扔一个球
13:23
and releasing a bird.
240
803403
1305
和放飞一只鸟的区别
13:25
The ball would head in a straight line,
241
805685
1943
球可以直接以从上方观察的直线
13:27
probably towards the intended target,
242
807652
2218
飞向既定的目标
13:29
and the bird certainly would not.
243
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3107
鸟显然不能
13:35
So what do you think?
244
815455
1594
你们怎么想呢?
13:37
Sounds a little impractical,
a little theoretical, perhaps?
245
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3287
听起来有点不切实际
有点纯理论化了,是吗?
13:41
Not at all.
246
821821
1157
一点也不
13:43
Every small entrepreneurial company
247
823657
2381
每个小型企业
13:47
naturally thinks and acts biologically.
248
827038
2844
都自然而然地生物化地思考和行动
13:50
Why?
249
830404
1151
这是为什么呢?
13:51
Because it lacks the resources
to shape its environment
250
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2630
因为它们缺少通过自身能力
13:54
through brute force.
251
834233
1294
塑造周围环境的条件
13:55
It lacks the scale to buffer change,
252
835551
2639
它没有能够迎接改变的规模
13:59
and it's constantly thinking
about the tough odds
253
839254
3173
并且它不断地在思考
14:02
for a start-up to survive.
254
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2126
起步时渺茫的生存机会
14:06
Now, the irony is, of course,
255
846637
1398
现在,讽刺的是,当然
14:08
that every large company started off
as a small, entrepreneurial company.
256
848059
3577
每一个大型公司都开始于
一个小型企业
14:11
But along the way somewhere,
257
851660
1571
但是在发展的某一阶段
14:13
many have lost this ability
to think and act biologically.
258
853255
4091
许多公司丢失了生物化思考
和行动的能力
14:18
They need to rejuvenate
their ability to think biologically
259
858604
3796
他们需要重拾生物化思考的能力
14:23
in order to survive and thrive
in today's environment.
260
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3617
以便在今天的环境中存活并繁荣
14:28
So let's not just think
about short-term performance.
261
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2609
让我们不要再只考虑短期表现吧
14:32
Every company I know spends plenty of time
262
872079
2876
我所知道的每一个公司
都花大量的时间
14:34
thinking about the central
question of strategy:
263
874979
2397
思考他们的战略核心:
14:37
How good is our competitive game?
264
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1899
我们的竞争力还有多少?
14:39
In addition, let's also consider
265
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2342
除此之外,为什么不考虑
14:42
the second, more biological
and equally important question:
266
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4061
第二个,更为生物化
而且同等重要的问题:
14:46
How long will that game last?
267
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2406
我们还能坚持多久?
14:49
Thank you very much.
268
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1181
谢谢
(掌声)
14:50
(Applause)
269
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3170
subtitled by: 治洋 Liu
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