How to build a business that lasts 100 years | Martin Reeves

300,507 views ・ 2016-09-01

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:12
Imagine that you are a product designer.
0
12991
2859
00:16
And you've designed a product,
1
16686
1446
00:18
a new type of product, called the human immune system.
2
18156
3624
00:23
You're pitching this product
3
23161
1465
00:24
to a skeptical, strictly no-nonsense manager.
4
24650
3157
00:28
Let's call him Bob.
5
28378
1446
00:29
I think we all know at least one Bob, right?
6
29848
2162
00:33
How would that go?
7
33542
1171
00:35
Bob, I've got this incredible idea
8
35925
2032
00:37
for a completely new type of personal health product.
9
37981
2632
00:40
It's called the human immune system.
10
40637
2171
00:43
I can see from your face that you're having some problems with this.
11
43447
3229
00:46
Don't worry. I know it's very complicated.
12
46700
2076
00:48
I don't want to take you through the gory details,
13
48800
2657
00:51
I just want to tell you about some of the amazing features of this product.
14
51481
4228
00:55
First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy
15
55733
2929
00:58
by having millions of copies of each component --
16
58686
3132
01:01
leukocytes, white blood cells --
17
61842
2185
01:04
before they're actually needed,
18
64051
1750
01:05
to create a massive buffer against the unexpected.
19
65825
3495
01:10
And it cleverly leverages diversity
20
70276
3360
01:13
by having not just leukocytes but B cells, T cells,
21
73660
3721
01:17
natural killer cells, antibodies.
22
77405
2208
01:19
The components don't really matter.
23
79943
1702
01:21
The point is that together,
24
81669
1570
01:23
this diversity of different approaches can cope with more or less anything
25
83263
4616
01:27
that evolution has been able to throw up.
26
87903
2153
01:31
And the design is completely modular.
27
91933
3359
01:35
You have the surface barrier of the human skin,
28
95860
3289
01:39
you have the very rapidly reacting innate immune system
29
99173
3221
01:42
and then you have the highly targeted adaptive immune system.
30
102418
4022
01:47
The point is, that if one system fails, another can take over,
31
107017
3845
01:50
creating a virtually foolproof system.
32
110886
3051
01:55
I can see I'm losing you, Bob, but stay with me,
33
115170
2291
01:57
because here is the really killer feature.
34
117485
3304
02:01
The product is completely adaptive.
35
121773
2567
02:04
It's able to actually develop targeted antibodies
36
124789
4542
02:09
to threats that it's never even met before.
37
129355
2516
02:12
It actually also does this with incredible prudence,
38
132680
3800
02:17
detecting and reacting to every tiny threat,
39
137081
4098
02:21
and furthermore, remembering every previous threat,
40
141203
4335
02:25
in case they are ever encountered again.
41
145562
2570
02:28
What I'm pitching you today is actually not a stand-alone product.
42
148624
3781
02:33
The product is embedded in the larger system of the human body,
43
153569
4415
02:38
and it works in complete harmony with that system,
44
158008
2913
02:40
to create this unprecedented level of biological protection.
45
160945
3054
02:44
So Bob, just tell me honestly, what do you think of my product?
46
164023
3225
02:48
And Bob may say something like,
47
168342
2524
02:50
I sincerely appreciate the effort and passion
48
170890
2915
02:53
that have gone into your presentation,
49
173829
2843
02:56
blah blah blah --
50
176696
1154
02:57
(Laughter)
51
177874
1180
02:59
But honestly, it's total nonsense.
52
179078
3053
03:04
You seem to be saying that the key selling points of your product
53
184081
3369
03:07
are that it is inefficient and complex.
54
187474
2701
03:10
Didn't they teach you 80-20?
55
190760
2010
03:13
And furthermore, you're saying that this product is siloed.
56
193693
3428
03:17
It overreacts,
57
197676
1405
03:19
makes things up as it goes along
58
199105
1539
03:20
and is actually designed for somebody else's benefit.
59
200668
2491
03:23
I'm sorry to break it to you, but I don't think this one is a winner.
60
203183
3607
03:27
If we went with Bob's philosophy,
61
207267
1946
03:29
I think we'd actually end up with a more efficient immune system.
62
209237
3468
03:32
And efficiency is always important in the short term.
63
212729
3006
03:36
Less complex, more efficient, more bang for the buck.
64
216875
3423
03:40
Who could say no to that?
65
220322
1358
03:42
Unfortunately, there's one very tiny problem,
66
222151
2387
03:44
and that is that the user of this product, you or I,
67
224562
3265
03:47
would probably die within one week of the next winter,
68
227851
3673
03:51
when we encountered a new strain of the influenza virus.
69
231548
3864
03:57
I first became interested in biology and business,
70
237191
4170
04:01
and longevity and resilience,
71
241385
2379
04:03
when I was asked a very unusual question
72
243788
2251
04:06
by the CEO of a global tech company.
73
246063
2672
04:09
And the question was:
74
249257
1450
04:10
What do we have to do to make sure that our company lasts 100 years?
75
250731
6162
04:18
A seemingly innocent question,
76
258811
1570
04:20
but actually, it's a little trickier than you might think,
77
260405
2811
04:24
considering that the average US public company now
78
264341
4226
04:28
can expect a life span of only 30 years.
79
268591
3498
04:33
That is less than half of the life span
80
273033
2721
04:35
that its employees can expect to enjoy.
81
275778
2826
04:39
Now, if you were the CEO of such a company,
82
279743
2256
04:42
badgered by investors and buffeted by change,
83
282961
2749
04:46
we might forgive you for not even worrying too much
84
286379
2515
04:48
about what happens 30 years out.
85
288918
1701
04:51
But here's something that should keep you awake at night:
86
291090
3258
04:55
the probability that your company will not be around in five year's time,
87
295840
3585
04:59
on average, is now a staggering 32 percent.
88
299449
3639
05:04
That's a one in three chance that your company will be taken over
89
304164
4044
05:08
or will fail within just five years.
90
308232
2793
05:13
Let's come back to our tech CEO's question.
91
313696
2314
05:16
Where better to turn for advice than nature,
92
316034
3779
05:19
that's been in the business of life and death
93
319837
2594
05:22
for longer than any company?
94
322455
1966
05:27
As a lapsed biologist,
95
327147
1783
05:28
I decided to immediately call a real biologist,
96
328954
3361
05:32
my friend Simon Levin,
97
332339
2014
05:34
Professor of Biology and Mathematics at Princeton University.
98
334377
3204
05:38
Together, we looked at a variety of biological systems,
99
338461
3630
05:42
ranging from natural tropical rainforests
100
342115
3266
05:45
through to managed forests and fisheries.
101
345405
2922
05:48
And we asked ourselves the question:
102
348351
1724
05:50
What makes these systems resilient and enduring?
103
350099
4858
05:56
And what we found was that the same six principles
104
356176
4145
06:00
that we saw underpinning the miracle of the human immune system
105
360345
3025
06:03
actually cropped up again and again,
106
363394
3061
06:07
from redundancy through to embeddedness.
107
367157
3034
06:11
In fact, we saw these principles not only in biologically enduring systems,
108
371129
4146
06:15
we also found them being very characteristic
109
375299
2871
06:18
of long-lived social systems,
110
378194
2387
06:20
like the Roman Empire and the Catholic Church,
111
380605
2218
06:22
believe it or not.
112
382847
1298
06:24
We also went on to look at business,
113
384169
1838
06:26
and found that these very same properties also characterized businesses
114
386031
4856
06:30
that were resilient and long-lived,
115
390911
1960
06:32
and we noted their absence from ones which were short-lived.
116
392895
4119
06:39
Let's first take a look at what happens when the corporate immune system
117
399162
4022
06:43
collapses.
118
403208
1165
06:45
This beautiful building is part of the Shitennoji Temple Complex
119
405202
4542
06:49
in Osaka, Japan.
120
409768
1323
06:51
In fact, it's one of the oldest temples in Japan.
121
411672
2840
06:55
It was built by a Korean artisan,
122
415165
2228
06:57
because at the time, Japan was not yet building temples.
123
417417
3069
07:00
And this Korean artisan went on to found a temple-building company.
124
420933
4740
07:07
Amazingly, his company, Kongō Gumi,
125
427017
3405
07:10
was still around 1,428 years later.
126
430446
5224
07:15
In fact, it became the oldest continuously operating company
127
435694
3600
07:19
in the world.
128
439318
1244
07:21
So how is Kongō Gumi doing today?
129
441986
2013
07:26
Not too well, I'm afraid.
130
446280
1457
07:28
It borrowed very heavily
131
448559
1353
07:29
during the bubble period of the Japanese economy,
132
449936
2778
07:32
to invest in real estate.
133
452738
1463
07:34
And when the bubble burst, it couldn't refinance its loans.
134
454225
3431
07:38
The company failed,
135
458463
1288
07:39
and it was taken over by a major construction company.
136
459775
3217
07:44
Tragically, after 40 generations of very careful stewardship
137
464735
4707
07:49
by the Kongō family,
138
469466
1219
07:51
Kongō Gumi succumbed to a spectacular lapse
139
471834
3680
07:55
in the ability to apply a principle of prudence.
140
475538
3951
08:00
Speaking of company failures:
141
480439
1605
08:03
we're all familiar with the failure of Kodak,
142
483552
2715
08:06
the company that declared bankruptcy
143
486908
2562
08:09
in January 2012.
144
489494
1625
08:13
Much more interesting, however, is the question:
145
493322
3939
08:17
Why did Fujifilm --
146
497285
1621
08:19
same product, same pressures from digital technology, same time --
147
499662
5243
08:24
why was Fujifilm able to survive and flourish?
148
504929
3706
08:30
Fujifilm used its capabilities in chemistry, material science and optics
149
510846
5971
08:37
to diversify into a number of areas,
150
517558
2755
08:40
ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals,
151
520953
3048
08:44
to medical systems to biomaterials.
152
524025
1986
08:46
Some of these diversification attempts failed.
153
526035
2685
08:49
But in aggregate,
154
529900
1164
08:51
it was able to adapt its portfolio sufficiently
155
531088
4340
08:55
to survive and flourish.
156
535452
1775
08:58
As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it,
157
538633
2843
09:01
the strategy succeeded because it had "more pockets and drawers"
158
541500
4236
09:05
than the rivals.
159
545760
1391
09:07
He meant, of course,
160
547175
1151
09:08
that they were able to create more options than the rivals.
161
548350
3427
09:13
Fujifilm survived because it applied the principles of prudence,
162
553137
4413
09:17
diversity
163
557574
1391
09:18
and adaptation.
164
558989
1169
09:21
A catastrophic factory fire, like the one we see here,
165
561615
2961
09:25
completely wiped out, in one evening,
166
565308
3018
09:28
the only plant which supplied Toyota with valves for car-braking systems.
167
568880
6375
09:36
The ultimate test of resilience.
168
576313
2380
09:40
Car production ground to a screeching halt.
169
580193
2795
09:44
How was it, then, that Toyota was able to recover car production?
170
584629
4437
09:50
Can you imagine how long it took?
171
590261
1923
09:52
Just five days.
172
592208
1303
09:54
From having no braking valves to complete recovery in five days.
173
594005
4029
09:58
How was this possible?
174
598966
1225
10:00
Toyota managed its network of suppliers in such a collaborative manner
175
600747
5286
10:06
that it could work very quickly and smoothly with suppliers
176
606057
4236
10:10
to repurpose production,
177
610317
1711
10:13
fill the missing braking valve capacity
178
613099
2530
10:15
and have car production come online again.
179
615653
3309
10:20
Toyota applied the principles of modularity of its supply network,
180
620093
4302
10:24
embeddedness in an integrated system
181
624419
2144
10:27
and the functional redundancy to be able to repurpose, smoothly,
182
627154
4036
10:31
existing capacity.
183
631214
1420
10:34
Now fortunately, few companies succumb to catastrophic fires.
184
634150
5015
10:39
But we do read in the newspaper every day about companies
185
639189
3093
10:42
succumbing to the disruption of technology.
186
642306
3399
10:46
How is it, then, that the consumer optics giant Essilor
187
646612
3922
10:50
is able to avoid technology disruption, and even profit from it?
188
650558
4046
10:55
And yes, technology disruption is not only a big deal
189
655095
3444
10:58
in software and electronics.
190
658563
2085
11:01
Essilor carefully scans the competitive environment
191
661917
3738
11:06
for potentially disruptive technologies.
192
666262
2252
11:09
It acquires those technologies very early,
193
669483
2810
11:12
before they've become expensive or competitors have mobilized around them,
194
672317
3776
11:16
and it then develops those technologies itself,
195
676117
2545
11:19
even at the risk of failure
196
679297
1942
11:21
or the risk of self-disruption.
197
681263
2125
11:24
Essilor stays ahead of its game,
198
684409
2618
11:27
and has delivered spectacular performance
199
687051
2006
11:29
for over 40 years,
200
689081
1443
11:30
by using the principles of prudence and adaptation.
201
690548
4197
11:35
OK, if these principles are so powerful, you might be thinking,
202
695901
3397
11:39
why are they not commonplace in business?
203
699986
2907
11:42
Why do we not use these words every day?
204
702917
2226
11:45
Well, change has to first start in the mind.
205
705625
2327
11:47
If we think back to our pitch to Bob,
206
707976
2045
11:50
in order to apply the principles
207
710045
2388
11:52
that underpin the miracle of the human immune system,
208
712457
2757
11:55
we first need to think differently
209
715827
2404
11:58
about business.
210
718255
1170
11:59
Now typically, when we think about business,
211
719838
2707
12:02
we use what I call "mechanical thinking."
212
722569
2482
12:05
We set goals,
213
725962
1637
12:07
we analyze problems,
214
727623
1539
12:09
we construct and we adhere to plans,
215
729186
2327
12:11
and more than anything else,
216
731537
1343
12:12
we stress efficiency and short-term performance.
217
732904
3011
12:16
Now, don't get me wrong --
218
736333
1261
12:17
this is a splendidly practical and effective way
219
737618
3114
12:20
of addressing relatively simple challenges
220
740756
2440
12:23
in relatively stable environments.
221
743220
1990
12:26
It's the way that Bob -- and probably many of us, myself included --
222
746005
3462
12:29
process most business problems we're faced with every day.
223
749491
2969
12:33
In fact, it was a pretty good mental model for business --
224
753374
3638
12:37
overall --
225
757036
1521
12:38
until about the mid-1980s,
226
758581
2028
12:40
when the conjunction of globalization
227
760633
3364
12:44
and a revolution in technology and telecommunications
228
764021
2523
12:46
made business far more dynamic and unpredictable.
229
766568
2438
12:49
But what about those more dynamic and unpredictable situations
230
769497
3078
12:52
that we now increasingly face?
231
772599
2091
12:55
I think in addition to the mechanical thinking,
232
775597
2415
12:58
we now need to master the art of biological thinking,
233
778036
3693
13:02
as embodied by our six principles.
234
782417
1961
13:05
In other words, we need to think more modestly and subtly
235
785245
3653
13:08
about when and how
236
788922
2296
13:11
we can shape, rather than control,
237
791242
2772
13:14
unpredictable and complex situations.
238
794928
3210
13:19
It's a little like the difference between throwing a ball
239
799551
3110
13:23
and releasing a bird.
240
803403
1305
13:25
The ball would head in a straight line,
241
805685
1943
13:27
probably towards the intended target,
242
807652
2218
13:29
and the bird certainly would not.
243
809894
3107
13:35
So what do you think?
244
815455
1594
13:37
Sounds a little impractical, a little theoretical, perhaps?
245
817073
3287
13:41
Not at all.
246
821821
1157
13:43
Every small entrepreneurial company
247
823657
2381
13:47
naturally thinks and acts biologically.
248
827038
2844
13:50
Why?
249
830404
1151
13:51
Because it lacks the resources to shape its environment
250
831579
2630
13:54
through brute force.
251
834233
1294
13:55
It lacks the scale to buffer change,
252
835551
2639
13:59
and it's constantly thinking about the tough odds
253
839254
3173
14:02
for a start-up to survive.
254
842451
2126
14:06
Now, the irony is, of course,
255
846637
1398
14:08
that every large company started off as a small, entrepreneurial company.
256
848059
3577
14:11
But along the way somewhere,
257
851660
1571
14:13
many have lost this ability to think and act biologically.
258
853255
4091
14:18
They need to rejuvenate their ability to think biologically
259
858604
3796
14:23
in order to survive and thrive in today's environment.
260
863603
3617
14:28
So let's not just think about short-term performance.
261
868704
2609
14:32
Every company I know spends plenty of time
262
872079
2876
14:34
thinking about the central question of strategy:
263
874979
2397
14:37
How good is our competitive game?
264
877400
1899
14:39
In addition, let's also consider
265
879802
2342
14:42
the second, more biological and equally important question:
266
882168
4061
14:46
How long will that game last?
267
886253
2406
14:49
Thank you very much.
268
889081
1181
14:50
(Applause)
269
890286
3170
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7