How to build a business that lasts 100 years | Martin Reeves

299,638 views ・ 2016-09-01

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:12
Imagine that you are a product designer.
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And you've designed a product,
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a new type of product, called the human immune system.
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You're pitching this product
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to a skeptical, strictly no-nonsense manager.
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Let's call him Bob.
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I think we all know at least one Bob, right?
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How would that go?
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Bob, I've got this incredible idea
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for a completely new type of personal health product.
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It's called the human immune system.
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I can see from your face that you're having some problems with this.
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Don't worry. I know it's very complicated.
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I don't want to take you through the gory details,
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I just want to tell you about some of the amazing features of this product.
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First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy
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by having millions of copies of each component --
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leukocytes, white blood cells --
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before they're actually needed,
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to create a massive buffer against the unexpected.
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And it cleverly leverages diversity
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by having not just leukocytes but B cells, T cells,
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natural killer cells, antibodies.
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The components don't really matter.
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The point is that together,
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this diversity of different approaches can cope with more or less anything
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that evolution has been able to throw up.
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And the design is completely modular.
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You have the surface barrier of the human skin,
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you have the very rapidly reacting innate immune system
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and then you have the highly targeted adaptive immune system.
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The point is, that if one system fails, another can take over,
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creating a virtually foolproof system.
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I can see I'm losing you, Bob, but stay with me,
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because here is the really killer feature.
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The product is completely adaptive.
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It's able to actually develop targeted antibodies
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to threats that it's never even met before.
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It actually also does this with incredible prudence,
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detecting and reacting to every tiny threat,
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and furthermore, remembering every previous threat,
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in case they are ever encountered again.
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What I'm pitching you today is actually not a stand-alone product.
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The product is embedded in the larger system of the human body,
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and it works in complete harmony with that system,
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to create this unprecedented level of biological protection.
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So Bob, just tell me honestly, what do you think of my product?
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And Bob may say something like,
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I sincerely appreciate the effort and passion
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that have gone into your presentation,
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blah blah blah --
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(Laughter)
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But honestly, it's total nonsense.
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You seem to be saying that the key selling points of your product
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are that it is inefficient and complex.
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Didn't they teach you 80-20?
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And furthermore, you're saying that this product is siloed.
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It overreacts,
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makes things up as it goes along
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and is actually designed for somebody else's benefit.
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I'm sorry to break it to you, but I don't think this one is a winner.
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If we went with Bob's philosophy,
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I think we'd actually end up with a more efficient immune system.
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And efficiency is always important in the short term.
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Less complex, more efficient, more bang for the buck.
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Who could say no to that?
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Unfortunately, there's one very tiny problem,
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and that is that the user of this product, you or I,
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would probably die within one week of the next winter,
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when we encountered a new strain of the influenza virus.
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I first became interested in biology and business,
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and longevity and resilience,
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when I was asked a very unusual question
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by the CEO of a global tech company.
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And the question was:
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What do we have to do to make sure that our company lasts 100 years?
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A seemingly innocent question,
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but actually, it's a little trickier than you might think,
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considering that the average US public company now
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can expect a life span of only 30 years.
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That is less than half of the life span
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that its employees can expect to enjoy.
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Now, if you were the CEO of such a company,
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badgered by investors and buffeted by change,
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we might forgive you for not even worrying too much
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about what happens 30 years out.
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But here's something that should keep you awake at night:
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the probability that your company will not be around in five year's time,
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on average, is now a staggering 32 percent.
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That's a one in three chance that your company will be taken over
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or will fail within just five years.
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Let's come back to our tech CEO's question.
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Where better to turn for advice than nature,
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that's been in the business of life and death
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for longer than any company?
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As a lapsed biologist,
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I decided to immediately call a real biologist,
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my friend Simon Levin,
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Professor of Biology and Mathematics at Princeton University.
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Together, we looked at a variety of biological systems,
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ranging from natural tropical rainforests
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through to managed forests and fisheries.
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And we asked ourselves the question:
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What makes these systems resilient and enduring?
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And what we found was that the same six principles
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that we saw underpinning the miracle of the human immune system
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actually cropped up again and again,
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from redundancy through to embeddedness.
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In fact, we saw these principles not only in biologically enduring systems,
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we also found them being very characteristic
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of long-lived social systems,
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like the Roman Empire and the Catholic Church,
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believe it or not.
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We also went on to look at business,
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and found that these very same properties also characterized businesses
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that were resilient and long-lived,
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and we noted their absence from ones which were short-lived.
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Let's first take a look at what happens when the corporate immune system
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collapses.
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This beautiful building is part of the Shitennoji Temple Complex
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in Osaka, Japan.
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In fact, it's one of the oldest temples in Japan.
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It was built by a Korean artisan,
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because at the time, Japan was not yet building temples.
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And this Korean artisan went on to found a temple-building company.
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Amazingly, his company, Kongō Gumi,
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was still around 1,428 years later.
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In fact, it became the oldest continuously operating company
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in the world.
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So how is Kongō Gumi doing today?
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Not too well, I'm afraid.
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It borrowed very heavily
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during the bubble period of the Japanese economy,
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to invest in real estate.
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And when the bubble burst, it couldn't refinance its loans.
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The company failed,
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and it was taken over by a major construction company.
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Tragically, after 40 generations of very careful stewardship
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by the Kongō family,
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Kongō Gumi succumbed to a spectacular lapse
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in the ability to apply a principle of prudence.
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Speaking of company failures:
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we're all familiar with the failure of Kodak,
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the company that declared bankruptcy
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in January 2012.
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Much more interesting, however, is the question:
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Why did Fujifilm --
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same product, same pressures from digital technology, same time --
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why was Fujifilm able to survive and flourish?
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Fujifilm used its capabilities in chemistry, material science and optics
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to diversify into a number of areas,
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ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals,
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to medical systems to biomaterials.
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Some of these diversification attempts failed.
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But in aggregate,
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it was able to adapt its portfolio sufficiently
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to survive and flourish.
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As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it,
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the strategy succeeded because it had "more pockets and drawers"
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than the rivals.
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He meant, of course,
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that they were able to create more options than the rivals.
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Fujifilm survived because it applied the principles of prudence,
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diversity
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and adaptation.
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A catastrophic factory fire, like the one we see here,
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completely wiped out, in one evening,
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the only plant which supplied Toyota with valves for car-braking systems.
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The ultimate test of resilience.
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Car production ground to a screeching halt.
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How was it, then, that Toyota was able to recover car production?
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Can you imagine how long it took?
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Just five days.
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From having no braking valves to complete recovery in five days.
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How was this possible?
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Toyota managed its network of suppliers in such a collaborative manner
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that it could work very quickly and smoothly with suppliers
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to repurpose production,
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fill the missing braking valve capacity
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and have car production come online again.
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Toyota applied the principles of modularity of its supply network,
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embeddedness in an integrated system
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and the functional redundancy to be able to repurpose, smoothly,
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existing capacity.
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Now fortunately, few companies succumb to catastrophic fires.
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But we do read in the newspaper every day about companies
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succumbing to the disruption of technology.
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How is it, then, that the consumer optics giant Essilor
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is able to avoid technology disruption, and even profit from it?
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And yes, technology disruption is not only a big deal
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in software and electronics.
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Essilor carefully scans the competitive environment
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for potentially disruptive technologies.
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It acquires those technologies very early,
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before they've become expensive or competitors have mobilized around them,
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and it then develops those technologies itself,
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even at the risk of failure
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or the risk of self-disruption.
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Essilor stays ahead of its game,
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and has delivered spectacular performance
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for over 40 years,
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by using the principles of prudence and adaptation.
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OK, if these principles are so powerful, you might be thinking,
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why are they not commonplace in business?
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Why do we not use these words every day?
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Well, change has to first start in the mind.
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If we think back to our pitch to Bob,
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in order to apply the principles
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that underpin the miracle of the human immune system,
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we first need to think differently
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about business.
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Now typically, when we think about business,
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we use what I call "mechanical thinking."
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We set goals,
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we analyze problems,
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we construct and we adhere to plans,
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and more than anything else,
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we stress efficiency and short-term performance.
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Now, don't get me wrong --
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this is a splendidly practical and effective way
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of addressing relatively simple challenges
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in relatively stable environments.
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It's the way that Bob -- and probably many of us, myself included --
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process most business problems we're faced with every day.
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In fact, it was a pretty good mental model for business --
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overall --
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until about the mid-1980s,
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when the conjunction of globalization
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and a revolution in technology and telecommunications
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made business far more dynamic and unpredictable.
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But what about those more dynamic and unpredictable situations
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that we now increasingly face?
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I think in addition to the mechanical thinking,
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we now need to master the art of biological thinking,
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as embodied by our six principles.
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In other words, we need to think more modestly and subtly
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about when and how
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we can shape, rather than control,
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unpredictable and complex situations.
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It's a little like the difference between throwing a ball
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and releasing a bird.
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The ball would head in a straight line,
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probably towards the intended target,
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and the bird certainly would not.
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So what do you think?
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Sounds a little impractical, a little theoretical, perhaps?
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Not at all.
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Every small entrepreneurial company
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naturally thinks and acts biologically.
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Why?
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Because it lacks the resources to shape its environment
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through brute force.
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It lacks the scale to buffer change,
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and it's constantly thinking about the tough odds
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for a start-up to survive.
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Now, the irony is, of course,
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that every large company started off as a small, entrepreneurial company.
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But along the way somewhere,
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many have lost this ability to think and act biologically.
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They need to rejuvenate their ability to think biologically
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in order to survive and thrive in today's environment.
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So let's not just think about short-term performance.
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Every company I know spends plenty of time
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thinking about the central question of strategy:
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How good is our competitive game?
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In addition, let's also consider
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the second, more biological and equally important question:
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How long will that game last?
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Thank you very much.
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(Applause)
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