How to build a business that lasts 100 years | Martin Reeves

Prevoditelj: Zdeslav Markoč Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

Imagine that you are a product designer.

Zamislite da ste dizajner proizvoda.

And you've designed a product,

Dizajnirali ste proizvod,

novu vrstu proizvoda, zvanu ljudski imunološki sustav.

a new type of product, called the human immune system.

Pokušavate ga prodati

You're pitching this product

to a skeptical, strictly no-nonsense manager.

skeptičnom, strogo ozbiljnom poslovođi.

Let's call him Bob.

Nazovimo ga Bob.

I think we all know at least one Bob, right?

Svi poznajemo barem jednog Boba, zar ne?

How would that go?

Kako bi to izgledalo?

Bob, I've got this incredible idea

Bobe, imam odličnu ideju

for a completely new type of personal health product.

za potpuno novu vrstu proizvoda za osobno zdravlje.

It's called the human immune system.

Zove se ljudski imunološki sustav.

I can see from your face that you're having some problems with this.

Vidim ti na licu da imaš problem s ovime.

Don't worry. I know it's very complicated.

Ne brini. Znam da je vrlo komplicirano.

I don't want to take you through the gory details,

Ne želim ti opisivati razne detalje.

I just want to tell you about some of the amazing features of this product.

Samo ti želim reći nešto o sjajnim karakteristikama ovog proizvoda.

First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy

Kao prvo, pametno koristi redundanciju

by having millions of copies of each component --

tako što ima milijune kopija svakog sastavnog dijela --

leukocytes, white blood cells --

leukocita, bijelih krvnih stanica --

prije nego što su zapravo potrebni,

before they're actually needed,

to create a massive buffer against the unexpected.

da bi stvorio veliki štit protiv neočekivanog.

And it cleverly leverages diversity

I pametno poboljšava raznolikost

by having not just leukocytes but B cells, T cells,

tako što nema samo leukocite, već ima i B stanice, T stanice,

natural killer cells, antibodies.

prirodne stanice ubojice, antitijela.

The components don't really matter.

Sastavni dijelovi nisu važni.

The point is that together,

Stvar je u tome da se zajedno,

this diversity of different approaches can cope with more or less anything

ta raznolikost različitih pristupa, može nositi s gotovo bilo čime

that evolution has been able to throw up.

što nam je evolucija uspjela donijeti.

And the design is completely modular.

I dizajn je u potpunosti modularan.

You have the surface barrier of the human skin,

Postoji površinska barijera ljudske kože,

postoji prirođen imunološki sustav koji brzo reagira

you have the very rapidly reacting innate immune system

and then you have the highly targeted adaptive immune system.

i zatim postoji najčešće ciljani prilagodljivi imunološki sustav.

Stvar je u tome da ukoliko jedan sustav podbaci, drugi ga može zamijeniti,

The point is, that if one system fails, another can take over,

creating a virtually foolproof system.

praktično stvarajući potpuno siguran sustav.

Vidim da te gubim Bobe, ali ostani sa mnom,

I can see I'm losing you, Bob, but stay with me,

because here is the really killer feature.

jer evo stvarno najbolje karakteristike.

The product is completely adaptive.

Proizvod je u potpunosti prilagodljiv.

It's able to actually develop targeted antibodies

Sposoban je proizvesti potrebna antitijela

to threats that it's never even met before.

za prijetnje koje još nikada nije sreo.

It actually also does this with incredible prudence,

Zapravo, čini to s nevjerojatnom razboritošću,

otkriva i reagira na svaku malu prijetnju,

detecting and reacting to every tiny threat,

and furthermore, remembering every previous threat,

i štoviše, pamti svaku prethodnu prijetnju

in case they are ever encountered again.

u slučaju da se ponovno susretnu.

What I'm pitching you today is actually not a stand-alone product.

Što ti pokazujem danas, zapravo nije samostalni proizvod.

The product is embedded in the larger system of the human body,

Proizvod je usađen u veći sustav ljudskog tijela,

i radi u potpunoj usklađenosti s tim sustavom,

and it works in complete harmony with that system,

to create this unprecedented level of biological protection.

kako bi stvorili ovu do sada neviđenu biološku zaštitu.

Stoga, Bobe, reci mi iskreno, što misliš o mom proizvodu?

So Bob, just tell me honestly, what do you think of my product?

And Bob may say something like,

A Bob bi mogao reći nešto kao,

I sincerely appreciate the effort and passion

Iskreno cijenim trud i strast

that have gone into your presentation,

koji su uloženi u tvoju prezentaciju,

blah blah blah --

bla bla bla --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Ali iskreno, potpuna je bezvezarija.

But honestly, it's total nonsense.

Čini se da govoriš da je prodajna prednost tvog proizvoda

You seem to be saying that the key selling points of your product

are that it is inefficient and complex.

to što je neučinkovit i kompleksan.

Didn't they teach you 80-20?

Nisu li te učili o Paretovom pravilu?

And furthermore, you're saying that this product is siloed.

Nadalje, govoriš mi da je ovaj proizvod izoliran.

It overreacts,

On pretjeruje,

izmišlja stvari putem

makes things up as it goes along

and is actually designed for somebody else's benefit.

i zapravo je dizajniran za tuđu dobrobit.

I'm sorry to break it to you, but I don't think this one is a winner.

Žao mi je što ti moram to reći, ali ne mislim da je to ono što tražimo.

If we went with Bob's philosophy,

Kada bismo pratili Bobovu filozofiju,

I think we'd actually end up with a more efficient immune system.

mislim da bismo na kraju završili s puno efikasnijim imunološkim sustavom.

And efficiency is always important in the short term.

A efikasnost je uvijek važna u kratkom roku.

Less complex, more efficient, more bang for the buck.

Manje kompleksno, više efikasno, više vrijednosti za novac.

Who could say no to that?

Tko bi mogao tome reći ne?

Nažalost, postoji jedan vrlo mali problem,

Unfortunately, there's one very tiny problem,

and that is that the user of this product, you or I,

a to je taj da bi korisnik ovog proizvoda, vi ili ja,

would probably die within one week of the next winter,

najvjerojatnije umro u roku od tjedan dana sljedeće zime,

when we encountered a new strain of the influenza virus.

kada se susretnemo s novom vrstom virusa gripe.

I first became interested in biology and business,

Prvi sam se puta zainteresirao za biologijom i ekonomijom,

and longevity and resilience,

dugovječnosti i otpornosti,

when I was asked a very unusual question

kada sam bio upitan vrlo neuobičajeno pitanje

od strane direktora globalne tehnološke kompanije.

by the CEO of a global tech company.

And the question was:

A pitanje je glasilo:

What do we have to do to make sure that our company lasts 100 years?

Što moramo napraviti da bismo bili sigurni da će naša kompanija trajati 100 godina?

A seemingly innocent question,

Naizgled jednostavno pitanje,

but actually, it's a little trickier than you might think,

ali zapravo, kompliciranije nego što biste pomislili,

considering that the average US public company now

uzimavši u obzir da prosječna kompanija u SAD-u danas

can expect a life span of only 30 years.

može očekivati vijek trajanja od samo 30 godina.

To je manje od polovine životnog vijeka

That is less than half of the life span

that its employees can expect to enjoy.

koji njeni zaposlenici mogu očekivati.

Now, if you were the CEO of such a company,

I sada, da ste vi direktor takve kompanije,

badgered by investors and buffeted by change,

proganjani od strane investitora i izmučeni promjenama,

we might forgive you for not even worrying too much

mogli bismo vam oprostiti za to što ne brinete puno

about what happens 30 years out.

o tome što će biti za 30 godina.

Ali evo nešto što bi vas trebalo držati budnima noću:

But here's something that should keep you awake at night:

the probability that your company will not be around in five year's time,

vjerojatnost da vaša kompanija neće postojati kroz pet godina,

on average, is now a staggering 32 percent.

u prosjeku je sada na zapanjujućih 32 posto.

To je mogućnost jedan od tri da će vaša kompanija biti preuzeta

That's a one in three chance that your company will be taken over

or will fail within just five years.

ili će propasti kroz samo pet godina.

Let's come back to our tech CEO's question.

Vratimo se sada na direktorovo pitanje.

Gdje bolje potražiti savjet nego u prirodi,

Where better to turn for advice than nature,

that's been in the business of life and death

koja je u poslu života i smrti

for longer than any company?

više nego ijedna druga kompanija?

Kao posrnuli biolog,

As a lapsed biologist,

I decided to immediately call a real biologist,

odmah sam odlučio nazvati pravog biologa,

my friend Simon Levin,

svog prijatelja Simona Levina,

Professor of Biology and Mathematics at Princeton University.

profesora biologije i matematike na Princeton sveučilištu.

Together, we looked at a variety of biological systems,

Zajedno smo pogledali različite biološke sustave,

krečući od prirodnih tropskih prašuma

ranging from natural tropical rainforests

through to managed forests and fisheries.

preko kontroliranih šuma i ribogojilišta.

And we asked ourselves the question:

I zapitali smo se sljedeće pitanje:

Što čini ove sustave otpornima i izdržljivima?

What makes these systems resilient and enduring?

I zaključili smo da se šest istih principa,

And what we found was that the same six principles

that we saw underpinning the miracle of the human immune system

koji podzidaju čudo ljudskog imunuloškog sustava,

actually cropped up again and again,

zapravo pojavljuju ponovno i ponovno,

od suvišnosti pa sve do usađenosti.

from redundancy through to embeddedness.

U stvari, ovi su principi, koje smo pronašli u biološki izdržljivim sustavima,

In fact, we saw these principles not only in biologically enduring systems,

we also found them being very characteristic

vrlo karakteristični

of long-lived social systems,

za dugovječne društvene sustave

like the Roman Empire and the Catholic Church,

kao što su Rimsko Carstvo i Katolička Crkva,

believe it or not.

vjerovali ili ne.

Također smo pogledali među poduzeća,

We also went on to look at business,

te shvatili da su te iste osobine krasile i poduzeća

and found that these very same properties also characterized businesses

that were resilient and long-lived,

koja su otporna i dugovječna,

and we noted their absence from ones which were short-lived.

a njihov smo nedostatak uočili u onima koja su kratkog vijeka.

Hajdemo prvo pogledati što se dogodi kada se imunološki sustav kompanije

Let's first take a look at what happens when the corporate immune system

collapses.

sruši.

This beautiful building is part of the Shitennoji Temple Complex

Ova prekrasna zgrada dio je kompleksa Shitennoji hrama

in Osaka, Japan.

u Osaki, Japanu.

In fact, it's one of the oldest temples in Japan.

U stvari, to je jedan od najstarijih hramova u Japanu.

Izgradio ga je korejski obrtnik,

It was built by a Korean artisan,

because at the time, Japan was not yet building temples.

jer u to vrijeme Japan još nije gradio hramove.

And this Korean artisan went on to found a temple-building company.

I taj je korejski obrntik krenuo dalje te osnovao poduzeće za izgradnju hramova.

Nevjerojatno, ali njegovo je poduzeće, Kongo Gumi,

Amazingly, his company, Kongō Gumi,

was still around 1,428 years later.

postojalo i 1428 godina kasnije.

In fact, it became the oldest continuously operating company

U stvari, to je postalo najstarije poduzeće koje kontinuirano posluje

in the world.

u svijetu.

So how is Kongō Gumi doing today?

Pa kako je Kongo Gumi danas?

Not too well, I'm afraid.

Ne predobro, bojim se.

It borrowed very heavily

Posuđivalo je jako puno

during the bubble period of the Japanese economy,

tijekom velikog rasta Japanske ekonomije

to invest in real estate.

kako bi uložilo u nekretnine.

And when the bubble burst, it couldn't refinance its loans.

A kada je došla recesija, nije moglo otplatiti svoje dugove.

The company failed,

Poduzeće je propalo

and it was taken over by a major construction company.

i preuzela ga je velika građevinska kompanija.

Tragically, after 40 generations of very careful stewardship

Tragično, nakon 40 generacija vrlo opreznog upravljanja

by the Kongō family,

od strane Kongo obitelji,

Kongō Gumi succumbed to a spectacular lapse

Kongo Gumi podleglo je spektakularnom propadanju

in the ability to apply a principle of prudence.

u mogućnosti da primijeni načelo razboritosti.

Speaking of company failures:

Govoreći o propasti kompanija :

we're all familiar with the failure of Kodak,

svi smo upoznati s propašću Kodaka,

the company that declared bankruptcy

kompanije koja je proglasila bankrot

in January 2012.

u siječnju 2012. godine.

Much more interesting, however, is the question:

Puno je zanimljivije, doduše, pitanje :

Why did Fujifilm --

Zašto je Fujifilm --

same product, same pressures from digital technology, same time --

isti proizvod, isti pritisci digitalne tehnologije, ista vremena --

why was Fujifilm able to survive and flourish?

zašto je Fujifilm bio sposoban preživjeti i napredovati?

Fujifilm used its capabilities in chemistry, material science and optics

Fujifilm je iskoristio svoja znanja u kemiji, materijalnoj znanosti i optici

to diversify into a number of areas,

kako bi diversificirao u brojnim područjima,

ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals,

krečući od kozmetike do farmacije,

od medicinskih sustava do biomaterijala.

to medical systems to biomaterials.

Neke su od ovih diversifikacija propale.

Some of these diversification attempts failed.

But in aggregate,

Ali u konačnom zbroju,

bio je sposoban dovoljno prilagoditi svoj portfelj

it was able to adapt its portfolio sufficiently

to survive and flourish.

kako bi preživio i napredovao.

As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it,

Kako je direktor, gospodin Komori, rekao :

the strategy succeeded because it had "more pockets and drawers"

"Strategija je uspjela jer su imali više "ladica i džepova"

than the rivals.

nego konkurenti."

Mislio je, naravno,

He meant, of course,

that they were able to create more options than the rivals.

da su bili sposobni stvoriti više opcija nego konkurenti.

Fujifilm je preživio jer je primijenio načela razboritosti,

Fujifilm survived because it applied the principles of prudence,

diversity

različitosti

and adaptation.

i prilagodljivosti.

A catastrophic factory fire, like the one we see here,

Katastrofalni požar u tvornici, kao što vidimo jedan ovdje,

completely wiped out, in one evening,

u potpunosti je uništio, u jednoj večeri,

the only plant which supplied Toyota with valves for car-braking systems.

jedinu tvornicu koja je opskrbljivala Toyotu ventilima za kočnice automobila.

The ultimate test of resilience.

Ultimativni ispit otpornosti.

Car production ground to a screeching halt.

Proizvodnja automobila došla je do cvilećeg zastoja.

How was it, then, that Toyota was able to recover car production?

Kako je onda Toyota bila sposobna oporaviti proizvodnju automobila?

Can you imagine how long it took?

Možete li zamisliti koliko je trajalo?

Just five days.

Samo pet dana.

Od situacije u kojoj nemaju kočne ventile do potpunog oporavka u pet dana.

From having no braking valves to complete recovery in five days.

How was this possible?

Kako je to moguće?

Toyota managed its network of suppliers in such a collaborative manner

Toyota je organizirala svoju mrežu dobavljača na suradnički način

koji je omogućio vrlo brzi i lak rad s dobavljačima

that it could work very quickly and smoothly with suppliers

to repurpose production,

da preusmjere proizvodnju,

da popune kapacitet nedostajećih kočnih ventila

fill the missing braking valve capacity

and have car production come online again.

te da se proizvodnja automobila ponovno pokrene.

Toyota je primijenila načela modularnosti svoje dobavljačke mreže,

Toyota applied the principles of modularity of its supply network,

embeddedness in an integrated system

ugrađenosti integriranog sustava

i funkcionalnog preobilja da bi lako prenamijenila

and the functional redundancy to be able to repurpose, smoothly,

existing capacity.

postojeći kapacitet.

Sada, na sreću, malo kompanija podliježe katastrofalnim požarima.

Now fortunately, few companies succumb to catastrophic fires.

But we do read in the newspaper every day about companies

Ali i dalje svakodnevno čitamo u vijestima o kompanijama

succumbing to the disruption of technology.

koje podliježu prekidu tehnologije.

How is it, then, that the consumer optics giant Essilor

Kako je onda moguće da je gigant potrošačke optike Essilor

is able to avoid technology disruption, and even profit from it?

sposoban izbjeći prekide u tehnologiji, te čak izvući profit iz toga?

I da, tehnološki prekid nije velika stvar

And yes, technology disruption is not only a big deal

in software and electronics.

samo u industriji softvera i elektronike.

Essilor carefully scans the competitive environment

Essilor oprezno skenira konkurentski okoliš

for potentially disruptive technologies.

zbog mogućih prekida u tehnologiji.

It acquires those technologies very early,

On steče novu tehnologiju vrlo rano,

before they've become expensive or competitors have mobilized around them,

prije nego što postane skupa ili se konkurenti mobiliziraju oko nje,

te zatim sam razvija tu tehnologiju,

and it then develops those technologies itself,

even at the risk of failure

čak i s rizikom neuspjeha

or the risk of self-disruption.

ili rizikom samostalnog prekida.

Essilor stays ahead of its game,

Essilor je uvijek korak ispred,

te tako ostvaruje izvanredan učinak

and has delivered spectacular performance

već više od 40 godina,

for over 40 years,

by using the principles of prudence and adaptation.

koristeći načela razboritosti i prilagodljivosti.

OK, if these principles are so powerful, you might be thinking,

U redu, ako su ova načela toliko moćna, vjerojatno mislite,

why are they not commonplace in business?

zašto nisu često primijenjena u poslu?

Why do we not use these words every day?

Zašto ne koristimo te riječi svakodnevno?

Well, change has to first start in the mind.

Pa, promjena mora prvo započeti u glavi.

If we think back to our pitch to Bob,

Ako se sjetimo našeg nagovaranja Boba,

kako bismo primijenili načela

in order to apply the principles

that underpin the miracle of the human immune system,

koja podupiru čudo ljudskog imunološkog sustava,

we first need to think differently

prvo moramo početi razmišljati drugačije

about business.

o poslu.

Now typically, when we think about business,

Sada, tipično, kada razmišljamo o poslu,

we use what I call "mechanical thinking."

koristimo, kako ja to zovem, "mehaničko razmišljanje".

We set goals,

Postavljamo ciljeve,

we analyze problems,

analiziramo probleme,

we construct and we adhere to plans,

konstruiramo i držimo se planova,

and more than anything else,

i više nego išta drugo,

we stress efficiency and short-term performance.

naglašavamo efikasnost i kratkoročni učinak.

Now, don't get me wrong --

Nemojte krivo shvatiti --

this is a splendidly practical and effective way

ovo je savršeno praktičan i učinkovit način

of addressing relatively simple challenges

za oslovljavanje relativno jednostavnih izazova

in relatively stable environments.

u relativno stabilnim okruženjima.

To je način na koji Bob -- i vjerojatno mnogi od nas, uključujući mene --

It's the way that Bob -- and probably many of us, myself included --

process most business problems we're faced with every day.

obrađujemo većinu svakodnevnih poslovnih problema.

In fact, it was a pretty good mental model for business --

U stvari, to je bio vrlo dobar mentalni model za poslovanje --

općenito --

overall --

until about the mid-1980s,

do sredine 1980-ih,

when the conjunction of globalization

kada je spoj globalizacije

i revolucije u tehnologiji i telekomunikaciji

and a revolution in technology and telecommunications

made business far more dynamic and unpredictable.

učinio poslovanje više dinamičnim i nepredvidljivim.

But what about those more dynamic and unpredictable situations

Ali što je s tim dinamičnijim i nepredvidljivim situacijama

that we now increasingly face?

s kojima se danas sve više susrećemo?

I think in addition to the mechanical thinking,

Mislim da, uz dodatak mehaničkom razmišljanju,

moramo savladati umijeće biološkog razmišljanja

we now need to master the art of biological thinking,

as embodied by our six principles.

koje utjelovljuje naših šest načela.

In other words, we need to think more modestly and subtly

Drugim riječima, moramo razmišljati skromnije i suptilnije

about when and how

o tome kada i kako

we can shape, rather than control,

možemo oblikovati, rađe nego kontrolirati,

unpredictable and complex situations.

nepredvidljive i kompleksne situacije.

It's a little like the difference between throwing a ball

To je pomalo kao razlika između bacanja lopte

and releasing a bird.

i puštanja ptice.

The ball would head in a straight line,

Lopta bi se kretala pravocrtno,

probably towards the intended target,

najvjerojatnije prema određenoj meti,

and the bird certainly would not.

a ptica zasigurno ne bi.

So what do you think?

Stoga, što mislite?

Zvuči pomalo nepraktično, malo teoretski, možda?

Sounds a little impractical, a little theoretical, perhaps?

Not at all.

Nipošto.

Every small entrepreneurial company

Svaka mala poduzetnička kompanija

prirodno razmišlja i djeluje biološki.

naturally thinks and acts biologically.

Why?

Zašto?

Because it lacks the resources to shape its environment

Zato što joj nedostaju resursi da oblikuje svoj okoliš

through brute force.

brutalnom silom.

It lacks the scale to buffer change,

Nedostaje joj veličina da ublaži promjene,

and it's constantly thinking about the tough odds

te konstantno razmišlja o teškim izgledima

for a start-up to survive.

same mlade kompanije da preživi.

Now, the irony is, of course,

Ironija je, naravno,

što je svaka velika kompanija počela kao mala, poduzetnička kompanija.

that every large company started off as a small, entrepreneurial company.

But along the way somewhere,

Ali su negdje usput,

many have lost this ability to think and act biologically.

mnoge izgubile umijeće da razmišljaju i djeluju biološki.

They need to rejuvenate their ability to think biologically

Moraju pomladiti svoje umijeće da razmišljaju biološki

in order to survive and thrive in today's environment.

kako bi preživjele i napredovale u današnjem okruženju.

So let's not just think about short-term performance.

Stoga, nemojmo razmišljati samo o kratkoročnom učinku.

Svaka kompanija koju poznajem provodi puno vremena

Every company I know spends plenty of time

thinking about the central question of strategy:

razmišljajući o centralnom pitanju strategije :

How good is our competitive game?

Kolika je naša konkurentost?

In addition, let's also consider

U dodatku, razmislimo također

o drugom, više biološkom, ali jednako važnom pitanju :

the second, more biological and equally important question:

How long will that game last?

Koliko će ta konkurentnost trajati?

Hvala vam lijepa.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)