How to build a business that lasts 100 years | Martin Reeves

299,638 views ใƒป 2016-09-01

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Jeongmin Kim ๊ฒ€ํ† : Jihyeon J. Kim
00:12
Imagine that you are a product designer.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์ œํ’ˆ ๋””์ž์ด๋„ˆ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ์ƒํ•ด ๋ณด์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.
00:16
And you've designed a product,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ธ๊ฐ„ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„๋ผ๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ œํ’ˆ์„ ์„ค๊ณ„ํ•˜์˜€๊ณ 
00:18
a new type of product, called the human immune system.
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00:23
You're pitching this product
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์•„์ฃผ ํšŒ์˜์ ์ด๊ณ  ์—„๊ฒฉํ•œ ์ƒ์‚ฌ์—๊ฒŒ
00:24
to a skeptical, strictly no-nonsense manager.
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๊ฑด๋„ค์„œ ํ™•์ธ์„ ๋ฐ›์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:28
Let's call him Bob.
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์ƒ์‚ฌ ์ด๋ฆ„์€ ๋ฐฅ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค.
00:29
I think we all know at least one Bob, right?
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์ฃผ๋ณ€์— ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์œ ํ˜• ํ•œ ๋ช…์ฏค ์žˆ์œผ์‹œ์ฃ ?
00:33
How would that go?
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์ œ์•ˆ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
00:35
Bob, I've got this incredible idea
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๋ฐฅ, ์ด๋ฒˆ์— ์ƒˆ ๊ฐœ์ธ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์ œํ’ˆ์„
00:37
for a completely new type of personal health product.
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์•„์ฃผ ํš๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋””์ž์ธํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
00:40
It's called the human immune system.
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์ œํ’ˆ๋ช…์€ '์ธ๊ฐ„ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„'์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:43
I can see from your face that you're having some problems with this.
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๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ๋ง˜์— ์•ˆ ๋“œ๋Š” ์ ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ๋ฒŒ์จ ํ‘œ์ •์— ๋ณด์ด๋„ค์š”.
00:46
Don't worry. I know it's very complicated.
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ์ง„ ์ €๋„ ์•„๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ๊ดœ์ฐฎ์•„์š”.
00:48
I don't want to take you through the gory details,
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๋”์ฐํ•œ ์„ธ๋ถ€ ์‚ฌํ•ญ ๋Œ€์‹ 
00:51
I just want to tell you about some of the amazing features of this product.
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์‹ ์ œํ’ˆ์˜ ํŠน์žฅ์  ๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋ฅผ ์„ค๋ช…๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:55
First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy
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์ฒซ์งธ๋กœ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„๋Š” ๋ฆผํ”„๊ตฌ์™€ ๋ฐฑํ˜ˆ๊ตฌ ๊ฐ™์€
00:58
by having millions of copies of each component --
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๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์„ ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๊ฐœ์”ฉ
01:01
leukocytes, white blood cells --
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ํ•„์š”ํ•ด์ง€๊ธฐ ์ „์— ๋ฏธ๋ฆฌ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ์˜ˆ์ƒ์น˜ ๋ชปํ•œ ์‚ฌํƒœ์— ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•ด
01:04
before they're actually needed,
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01:05
to create a massive buffer against the unexpected.
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๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ชจ์•„ ๋†“์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
And it cleverly leverages diversity
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๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„๋Š” ๋˜
01:13
by having not just leukocytes but B cells, T cells,
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๋ฐฑํ˜ˆ๊ตฌ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ B์„ธํฌ, T์„ธํฌ, ์ž์—ฐ์‚ดํ•ด์„ธํฌ, ํ•ญ์ฒด ๋“ฑ
01:17
natural killer cells, antibodies.
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๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์„ ๊ตฌ๋น„ํ•ด ๋†“์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:19
The components don't really matter.
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๋ถ€ํ’ˆ๋“ค์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:21
The point is that together,
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๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์„ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋ชจ๋กœ ์กฐํ•ฉํ•˜๋ฉด
01:23
this diversity of different approaches can cope with more or less anything
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์ง„ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๋˜์ ธ ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๋Œ€์ฒ˜ํ•˜๋Š”
01:27
that evolution has been able to throw up.
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๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์ƒ๊ธด๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:31
And the design is completely modular.
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๋˜ ๋ชจ๋“ˆ๋กœ ๋”ฐ๋กœ ์„ค๊ณ„๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:35
You have the surface barrier of the human skin,
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ํ”ผ๋ถ€๋ผ๋Š” ํ‘œ๋ฉด ๋ฐฉ์–ด๋ง‰์ด ์žˆ๊ณ 
01:39
you have the very rapidly reacting innate immune system
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๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์„ ์ฒœ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„์™€
01:42
and then you have the highly targeted adaptive immune system.
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ํŠน์ • ๋ชฉํ‘œ์— ํŠนํ™”๋œ ์ ์‘ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:47
The point is, that if one system fails, another can take over,
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ํ•œ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์— ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ธฐ๋ฉด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด ๋Œ€์‹ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
01:50
creating a virtually foolproof system.
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ํ™•์‹คํ•œ ๋ฐฉ์–ด ์ฒด๊ณ„๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์ด ์ธ์ƒ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:55
I can see I'm losing you, Bob, but stay with me,
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๋ฐฅ, ๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ์‹ค๋ง์Šค๋Ÿฌ์›Œํ•˜์‹œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์ €๋„ ์•Œ์ง€๋งŒ
01:57
because here is the really killer feature.
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์ด์ œ ์ง„์งœ ์ฃฝ์—ฌ ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋‹ˆ ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•ด ์ฃผ์„ธ์š”.
02:01
The product is completely adaptive.
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์ด ์ œํ’ˆ์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ ์‘๋ ฅ์ด ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:04
It's able to actually develop targeted antibodies
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์ „์— ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ๋„ ๋ณธ ์  ์—†๋Š” ์ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
02:09
to threats that it's never even met before.
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๋งž์ถค ํ•ญ์ฒด๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:12
It actually also does this with incredible prudence,
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์ด ๊ณผ์ •์€ ๋นˆํ‹ˆ์—†๊ณ  ์‹ ์ค‘ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ง„ํ–‰๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:17
detecting and reacting to every tiny threat,
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๋ชจ๋“  ์ ๋“ค์„ ๊ฐ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜๋ฉฐ
02:21
and furthermore, remembering every previous threat,
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๋‹ค์Œ์— ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งž๋‹ฅ๋œจ๋ฆด ๊ฑธ ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•ด
02:25
in case they are ever encountered again.
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์ด์ „์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ ๋“ค์„ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•ด ๋†“์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:28
What I'm pitching you today is actually not a stand-alone product.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ง€๊ธˆ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋…๋ฆฝ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๋Š” ์ œํ’ˆ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ์š”.
02:33
The product is embedded in the larger system of the human body,
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์‹ ์ฒด๋ผ๋Š” ๋” ํฐ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ๋‚ด์žฅ๋œ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:38
and it works in complete harmony with that system,
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์‹ ์ฒด์™€ ์™„๋ฒฝํ•œ ์กฐํ™”๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด
02:40
to create this unprecedented level of biological protection.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐ์„œ๋Š” ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์  ๋ฐฉ์–ด๋ฅผ ํ•ด๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:44
So Bob, just tell me honestly, what do you think of my product?
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๋ฐฅ, ์ด์ œ ์ด ์ œํ’ˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์†”์งํžˆ ์˜๊ฒฌ์„ ๋งํ•ด ์ฃผ์„ธ์š”.
02:48
And Bob may say something like,
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๋ฐฅ์˜ ๋Œ€๋‹ต์€
02:50
I sincerely appreciate the effort and passion
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์ž๋„ค๊ฐ€ ์ด ๋ฐœํ‘œ์— ๋“ค์ธ
02:53
that have gone into your presentation,
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๋…ธ๋ ฅ๊ณผ ์—ด์ •์€ ์ธ์ •ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
02:56
blah blah blah --
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์–ด์ฉŒ๊ณ  ์ €์ฉŒ๊ณ 
02:57
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
02:59
But honestly, it's total nonsense.
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์†”์งํžˆ ์ด๊ฑด ์™„์ „ ํ—›์†Œ๋ฆฌ์•ผ.
03:04
You seem to be saying that the key selling points of your product
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๋‚˜๋Š” ์ž๋„ค๊ฐ€ ์ด ์ œํ’ˆ์˜ ์žฅ์ ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ
03:07
are that it is inefficient and complex.
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๋น„ํšจ์œจ์ ์ด๊ณ  ๋ณต์žกํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ๋กœ ๋ณด์ด๋Š”๋ฐ
03:10
Didn't they teach you 80-20?
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๊ฒฝ์˜ํ•™์—์„œ 80-20 ๋ฒ•์น™ ์•ˆ ๋ฐฐ์› ๋‚˜?
03:13
And furthermore, you're saying that this product is siloed.
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๊ฒŒ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ์•„๊นŒ ๋ง๋Œ€๋กœ๋ผ๋ฉด ์ด ์ œํ’ˆ์€ ํ•ต๋ฐ˜์‘๋กœ ๊ฐ™๋„ค.
03:17
It overreacts,
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๊ณผ์ž‰ ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜๊ณ 
03:19
makes things up as it goes along
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๊ณ„ํš ์—†์ด ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ๋‹ค๊ฐ€
03:20
and is actually designed for somebody else's benefit.
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๋‚ด๋ถ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด์ต์„ ๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋„ ์—†์ž–์•„.
03:23
I'm sorry to break it to you, but I don't think this one is a winner.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ง ํ•˜๊ธด ๋ฏธ์•ˆํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•  ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์ง€ ์•Š๋„ค.
03:27
If we went with Bob's philosophy,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ๋ฐฅ์˜ ์ฒ ํ•™์„ ๋”ฐ๋ž๋‹ค๋ฉด
03:29
I think we'd actually end up with a more efficient immune system.
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ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ–์ถ”์–ด์ง€๊ธด ํ–ˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:32
And efficiency is always important in the short term.
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ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์€ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜์ฃ .
03:36
Less complex, more efficient, more bang for the buck.
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๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜๊ณ  ํšจ์œจ์ ์ด๊ณ , ์‹ผ ๊ฐ’์œผ๋กœ ๋งŽ์€ ์ผ์„ ํ•ด๋‚ด๋Š”๋ฐ
03:40
Who could say no to that?
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๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์‹ซ์–ดํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
03:42
Unfortunately, there's one very tiny problem,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์ด๋žฌ๋‹ค๋ฉด
03:44
and that is that the user of this product, you or I,
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์ œํ’ˆ ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ž์ธ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๊ณผ ์ €๋Š”
03:47
would probably die within one week of the next winter,
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์˜ฌ ๊ฒจ์šธ์— ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ธํ”Œ๋ฃจ์—”์ž ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค์— ๋…ธ์ถœ๋˜๋ฉด
03:51
when we encountered a new strain of the influenza virus.
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ํ•œ ์ฃผ๋งŒ์— ์ฃฝ์–ด ๋ฒ„๋ ธ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:57
I first became interested in biology and business,
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์ €๋Š” ํ•œ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ CEO์—๊ฒŒ์„œ
04:01
and longevity and resilience,
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๋งค์šฐ ์ƒ‰๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜์„ ๋•Œ
04:03
when I was asked a very unusual question
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๊ฒฝ์˜๊ณผ ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„์™€
04:06
by the CEO of a global tech company.
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์žฅ์ˆ˜์™€ ๋ฉด์—ญ๋ ฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:09
And the question was:
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๊ทธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:10
What do we have to do to make sure that our company lasts 100 years?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฑ ๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ์‚ด์•„๋‚จ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ „๋žต์€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ๊ฐ€?
04:18
A seemingly innocent question,
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๋‹จ์ˆœํ•ด ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ด์ง€๋งŒ
04:20
but actually, it's a little trickier than you might think,
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๊ณผ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:24
considering that the average US public company now
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ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ƒ์žฅ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์˜ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์ด
04:28
can expect a life span of only 30 years.
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30๋…„๋ฐ–์— ์•ˆ ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
04:33
That is less than half of the life span
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๊ทธ ํšŒ์‚ฌ ์ง์› ๊ฐœ์ธ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์˜
04:35
that its employees can expect to enjoy.
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์ ˆ๋ฐ˜๋„ ์•ˆ ๋˜๋Š” ์…ˆ์ด์ฃ .
04:39
Now, if you were the CEO of such a company,
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์ด์ œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ CEO๋กœ์„œ
04:42
badgered by investors and buffeted by change,
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ํˆฌ์ž์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์••๋ฐ•์„ ๋ฐ›์„ ๋•Œ
04:46
we might forgive you for not even worrying too much
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30๋…„ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„ํš์„ ์•ˆ ์„ธ์šด ๊ฒƒ ์ •๋„๋Š”
04:48
about what happens 30 years out.
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์šฉ์„œํ•ด ์ค„์ง€๋„ ๋ชจ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:51
But here's something that should keep you awake at night:
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ CEO๋“ค ๋ฐค์ž ์„ ์„ค์น˜๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์‚ฌ์‹ค๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:55
the probability that your company will not be around in five year's time,
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5๋…„ ํ›„์— ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์—†์„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€
04:59
on average, is now a staggering 32 percent.
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์•ˆํƒ€๊น๊ฒŒ๋„ ํ‰๊ท  32%๋‚˜ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:04
That's a one in three chance that your company will be taken over
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๋‹จ 5๋…„ ์•ˆ์— ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ธ์ˆ˜๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์งˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด
05:08
or will fail within just five years.
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1/3์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:13
Let's come back to our tech CEO's question.
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์ด์ œ ์•„๊นŒ CEO์˜ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•ด ๋ณด์ฃ .
05:16
Where better to turn for advice than nature,
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๊ทธ ์–ด๋Š ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋ณด๋‹ค ์˜ค๋žซ๋™์•ˆ ์ƒ์กด๊ณผ ๋ฉธ์ข…์ด๋ผ๋Š” ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ
05:19
that's been in the business of life and death
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์‚ฌ์—…์„ ํ•ด ์˜จ ์ž์—ฐ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ์ข‹์€
05:22
for longer than any company?
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๋ฒค์น˜๋งˆํ‚น ์ƒ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋”” ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
05:27
As a lapsed biologist,
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๋ฌด๋Šฌ๋งŒ ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์ž์ธ ์ €๋Š”
05:28
I decided to immediately call a real biologist,
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ํ”„๋ฆฐ์Šคํ„ด ๋Œ€ํ•™ ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™๊ณผ ์ˆ˜ํ•™๊ณผ ๊ต์ˆ˜์ธ
05:32
my friend Simon Levin,
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์ œ ์นœ๊ตฌ ์‚ฌ์ด๋จผ ๋ ˆ๋นˆ์—๊ฒŒ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•˜๊ธฐ๋กœ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:34
Professor of Biology and Mathematics at Princeton University.
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05:38
Together, we looked at a variety of biological systems,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ž์—ฐ ์ƒํƒœ์˜ ์—ด๋Œ€์šฐ๋ฆผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
05:42
ranging from natural tropical rainforests
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๊ด€๋ฆฌ ๋Œ€์ƒ ์ž„์•ผ์™€ ์–ด์žฅ๊นŒ์ง€
05:45
through to managed forests and fisheries.
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๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์ƒ๋ฌผ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ด€์ฐฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:48
And we asked ourselves the question:
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
05:50
What makes these systems resilient and enduring?
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๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์ด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๊ฐ•์ธํ•˜๊ณ  ํšŒ๋ณต๋ ฅ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊นŒ?
05:56
And what we found was that the same six principles
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋™์ผํ•œ ์—ฌ์„ฏ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์›๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:00
that we saw underpinning the miracle of the human immune system
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์ธ๊ฐ„ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„์— ๊ธฐ์ดˆํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ ์ด
06:03
actually cropped up again and again,
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๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ดค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:07
from redundancy through to embeddedness.
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์ค‘๋ณต์„ฑ์—์„œ ๋‚ด์žฌ์„ฑ๊นŒ์ง€์š”.
06:11
In fact, we saw these principles not only in biologically enduring systems,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ๋ฏฟ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋ง๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ด ์›์น™๋“ค์€
06:15
we also found them being very characteristic
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์ง€์†์„ฑ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒ๋ฌผ๊ณ„๋งŒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
06:18
of long-lived social systems,
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๋กœ๋งˆ ์ œ๊ตญ์ด๋‚˜ ๊ฐ€ํ†จ๋ฆญ ๊ตํšŒ์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์žฅ์ˆ˜ํ•œ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์ฒด๊ณ„์˜ ํŠน์„ฑ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:20
like the Roman Empire and the Catholic Church,
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06:22
believe it or not.
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06:24
We also went on to look at business,
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๊ฒฝ์˜ ๋ถ„์•ผ๋„ ๊ด€์ฐฐํ•˜์˜€๋Š”๋ฐ
06:26
and found that these very same properties also characterized businesses
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์˜ค๋ž˜ ์กด์†ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์—์„œ ๊ฐ™์€ ์›์น™์ด ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ 
06:30
that were resilient and long-lived,
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06:32
and we noted their absence from ones which were short-lived.
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๋‹จ๋ช…ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์ด ์›์น™์ด ์—†์Œ์„ ์•Œ์•„๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:39
Let's first take a look at what happens when the corporate immune system
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๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์งˆ ๋•Œ ์–ด๋–ค ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณด์‹œ์ฃ .
06:43
collapses.
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06:45
This beautiful building is part of the Shitennoji Temple Complex
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์ด ์•„๋ฆ„๋‹ค์šด ๊ฑด๋ฌผ์€ ์ผ๋ณธ ์˜ค์‚ฌ์นด์˜ ์‹œํ…๋…ธ์ง€ ์‚ฌ์›๋“ค ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:49
in Osaka, Japan.
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06:51
In fact, it's one of the oldest temples in Japan.
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์ผ๋ณธ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๋œ ์‚ฌ์› ์ถ•์— ๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:55
It was built by a Korean artisan,
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ํ•œ๊ตญ ์žฅ์ธ์ด ์ง€์€ ๊ฒƒ์ธ๋ฐ์š”.
06:57
because at the time, Japan was not yet building temples.
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๋‹น์‹œ ์ผ๋ณธ์—๋Š” ์‚ฌ์› ๊ฑด์ถ• ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์—†์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:00
And this Korean artisan went on to found a temple-building company.
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์ด ํ•œ๊ตญ ์žฅ์ธ์€ ํ›„์— ์‚ฌ์› ๊ฑด์ถ• ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐจ๋ ธ๋Š”๋ฐ
07:07
Amazingly, his company, Kongล Gumi,
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๋†€๋ž๊ฒŒ๋„ ๊ทธ์˜ ํšŒ์‚ฌ ์ฝ˜๊ณ  ๊ตฌ๋ฏธ๋Š”
07:10
was still around 1,428 years later.
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1428๋…„์ด ์ง€๋‚œ ํ›„์—๋„ ์กด์žฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:15
In fact, it became the oldest continuously operating company
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์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ์˜์—…์„ ์ค‘๋‹จํ•œ ์  ์—†๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๋œ ํšŒ์‚ฌ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ์ฃ .
07:19
in the world.
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07:21
So how is Kongล Gumi doing today?
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์ง€๊ธˆ ์ฝ˜๊ณ  ๊ตฌ๋ฏธ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ์ƒํƒœ๋ƒ๊ณ ์š”?
07:26
Not too well, I'm afraid.
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์•ˆํƒ€๊น๊ฒŒ๋„ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:28
It borrowed very heavily
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ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ์œ„ํ•ด
07:29
during the bubble period of the Japanese economy,
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์ผ๋ณธ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฑฐํ’ˆ์ด ๋‚€ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์— ๊ฑฐ์•ก์„ ๋Œ€์ถœ๋ฐ›์•˜๊ณ 
07:32
to invest in real estate.
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07:34
And when the bubble burst, it couldn't refinance its loans.
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๊ฑฐํ’ˆ์ด ํ„ฐ์กŒ์„ ๋•Œ ๋Œ€์ถœ๊ธˆ์„ ๊ฐ’์„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:38
The company failed,
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ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ
07:39
and it was taken over by a major construction company.
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๋Œ€ํ˜• ๊ฑด์„ค์‚ฌ์— ์ธ์ˆ˜๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:44
Tragically, after 40 generations of very careful stewardship
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์•ˆํƒ€๊น๊ฒŒ๋„ ์ฝ˜๊ณ  ๊ฐ€๋ฌธ์ด 40 ์„ธ๋Œ€ ๋™์•ˆ ๋Œ๋ณธ ์ฝ˜๊ณ  ๊ตฌ๋ฏธ๋Š”
07:49
by the Kongล family,
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07:51
Kongล Gumi succumbed to a spectacular lapse
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๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์— ์‹ ์ค‘ํ•จ์˜ ์›์น™์„ ์ง€ํ‚ค์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”
07:55
in the ability to apply a principle of prudence.
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์ค‘๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‹ค์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ฒ”ํ•ด ๋ฒ„๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:00
Speaking of company failures:
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์—†์–ด์ง„ ํšŒ์‚ฌ ์–˜๊ธฐ ๋‚˜์˜จ ๊น€์—
08:03
we're all familiar with the failure of Kodak,
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์ฝ”๋‹ฅํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ์‹คํŒจ๋ฅผ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
08:06
the company that declared bankruptcy
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2012๋…„ 1์›”์— ํŒŒ์‚ฐํ•œ ๊ธฐ์—…์ด์ฃ .
08:09
in January 2012.
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08:13
Much more interesting, however, is the question:
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋” ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€
08:17
Why did Fujifilm --
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์–ด์งธ์„œ ํ›„์ง€ ํ•„๋ฆ„์€
08:19
same product, same pressures from digital technology, same time --
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๊ฐ™์€ ์ œํ’ˆ์— ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์ด ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ์นด๋ฉ”๋ผ์˜ ์••๋ฐ•์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜์œผ๋ฉฐ ์กด์žฌ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๋„ ๊ฐ™์€๋ฐ
08:24
why was Fujifilm able to survive and flourish?
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์‚ด์•„ ๋‚จ์•„์„œ ์‚ฌ์—…์ด ๋ฒˆ์ฐฝํ–ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
08:30
Fujifilm used its capabilities in chemistry, material science and optics
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ํ›„์ง€ํ•„๋ฆ„์€ ํ™”ํ•™, ์žฌ๋ฃŒ๊ณตํ•™๊ณผ ๊ด‘ํ•™ ๋ถ„์•ผ์˜ ๊ธฐ์กด ์ง€์‹์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ 
08:37
to diversify into a number of areas,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋ถ„์•ผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ๋‹ค๊ฐํ™”ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:40
ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals,
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ํ™”์žฅํ’ˆ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ, ์˜๋ฃŒ๊ณ„, ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค๋ฌผ์งˆ๊นŒ์ง€์š”.
08:44
to medical systems to biomaterials.
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08:46
Some of these diversification attempts failed.
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์ด๋“ค ์ค‘ ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ๋Š” ์‹คํŒจํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
08:49
But in aggregate,
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์ „์ฒด์ ์ธ ์„ฑ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด
08:51
it was able to adapt its portfolio sufficiently
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์ƒ์กด๊ณผ ์„ฑ๊ณต์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์—… ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ
08:55
to survive and flourish.
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์ ์‘์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ๋ฐ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:58
As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it,
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CEO์ธ ์ฝ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์”จ์˜ ๋ฐœ์–ธ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
09:01
the strategy succeeded because it had "more pockets and drawers"
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๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ์—…์ฒด๋ณด๋‹ค "์ฐŒ๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋จธ๋‹ˆ"๊ฐ€
09:05
than the rivals.
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๋” ๋งŽ์•˜๋˜ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:07
He meant, of course,
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€
09:08
that they were able to create more options than the rivals.
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๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ž๋ณด๋‹ค ์„ ํƒ๊ถŒ์„ ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด๋ƒˆ๋‹จ ๋œป์ด๊ฒ ์ฃ .
09:13
Fujifilm survived because it applied the principles of prudence,
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ํ›„์ง€ํ•„๋ฆ„์€ ์‹ ์ค‘ํ•จ, ๋‹ค์–‘์„ฑ, ์ ์‘์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์›์น™์„ ์ง€์ผœ์„œ ์‚ด์•„๋‚จ์•˜์ฃ .
09:17
diversity
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09:18
and adaptation.
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09:21
A catastrophic factory fire, like the one we see here,
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์ด ์‚ฌ์ง„์—์„œ ๋ณด๋Š” ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ๊ณต์žฅํ™”์žฌ๋Š”
09:25
completely wiped out, in one evening,
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ํ•˜๋ฃป๋ฐค ์‚ฌ์ด์— ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฑธ ์•—์•„๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:28
the only plant which supplied Toyota with valves for car-braking systems.
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๋„์š”ํƒ€ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์— ์ œ๋™์žฅ์น˜ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์„ ๋Œ€๋Š” ์œ ์ผํ•œ ๊ณต์žฅ์„ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ถˆํƒœ์›Œ ๋ฒ„๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:36
The ultimate test of resilience.
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ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ํšŒ๋ณต๋ ฅ์„ ์‹œํ—˜ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
09:40
Car production ground to a screeching halt.
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์ž๋™์ฐจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ด ๊ฐ‘์ž๊ธฐ ์ค‘๋‹จ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:44
How was it, then, that Toyota was able to recover car production?
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๋„์š”ํƒ€๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์„ ํšŒ๋ณตํ•œ ๊ณผ์ •์€ ์–ด๋• ์„๊นŒ์š”?
09:50
Can you imagine how long it took?
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊ฑธ๋ ธ์„์ง€ ์ƒ์ƒ์ด ๊ฐ€์„ธ์š”?
09:52
Just five days.
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5์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:54
From having no braking valves to complete recovery in five days.
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๋ธŒ๋ ˆ์ดํฌ ๋ฐธ๋ธŒ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์ด ์—†๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ 5์ผ๋งŒ์— ์ •์ƒํ™”์‹œํ‚จ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:58
How was this possible?
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์ด๊ฒŒ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ–ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
10:00
Toyota managed its network of suppliers in such a collaborative manner
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๋„์š”ํƒ€๋Š” ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ๋‚ด์˜ ์—…์ฒด๋“ค๊ณผ ๋งค์šฐ ํ˜ธ์˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ˜‘์กฐํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
10:06
that it could work very quickly and smoothly with suppliers
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๊ณต๊ธ‰์ž๋“ค์ด ๋น ๋ฅด๊ณ  ์œ ์—ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ
10:10
to repurpose production,
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์ƒ์‚ฐ์— ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€๊ณ 
10:13
fill the missing braking valve capacity
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๋ถ€์กฑํ•œ ๋ธŒ๋ ˆ์ดํฌ ๋ฐธ๋ธŒ ํ•„์š”๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ•ด
10:15
and have car production come online again.
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์ž๋™์ฐจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ด ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:20
Toyota applied the principles of modularity of its supply network,
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๋„์š”ํƒ€๋Š” ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์—์„œ ๋ชจ๋“ˆํ™”
10:24
embeddedness in an integrated system
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ํ†ตํ•ฉ๋œ ์ฒด๊ณ„์—์„œ์˜ ํฌํ•จ ๊ตฌ์กฐ
10:27
and the functional redundancy to be able to repurpose, smoothly,
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์œ ์—ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์žฌ๊ธฐ๋Šฅํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ๋ฐ๋Š” ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์˜ ์›๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:31
existing capacity.
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10:34
Now fortunately, few companies succumb to catastrophic fires.
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๋‹คํ–‰ํžˆ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ํ™”์žฌ ํ•˜๋‚˜์— ๊ตด๋ณตํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์€ ์ž์ฃผ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:39
But we do read in the newspaper every day about companies
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์‹ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ธฐ์กด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€
10:42
succumbing to the disruption of technology.
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๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋Š” ์ž์ฃผ ๋ณด๋„๊ฐ€ ๋˜์ฃ .
10:46
How is it, then, that the consumer optics giant Essilor
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๊ด‘ํ•™๋ Œ์ฆˆ ์—…๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฌผ์ธ ์—์‹ค๋Ÿฌ ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ
10:50
is able to avoid technology disruption, and even profit from it?
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์‹ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ๋„๋ž˜์—๋„ ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ์ด๋“์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
10:55
And yes, technology disruption is not only a big deal
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๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ํŒŒ๊ดด๋Š” ์ „์ž์ œํ’ˆ๊ณผ ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด ์‚ฐ์—…์—์„œ๋งŒ
10:58
in software and electronics.
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์กด์žฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:01
Essilor carefully scans the competitive environment
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์—์‹ค๋Ÿฌ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ์ œํ’ˆ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์„ ๋ฉด๋ฐ€ํžˆ ์กฐ์‚ฌํ•˜์—ฌ
11:06
for potentially disruptive technologies.
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ํ˜์‹ ์ ์ธ ์‹ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํ›„๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ถ”๋ ค๋ƒˆ์ฃ .
11:09
It acquires those technologies very early,
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ํ•ด๋‹น ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
11:12
before they've become expensive or competitors have mobilized around them,
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๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณธ๊ฒฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์›€์ง์ด๊ธฐ ์ „์— ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋ ฅ์„ ์ž๊ธฐ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:16
and it then develops those technologies itself,
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๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์ด ์‹คํŒจํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์‹ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์ œ ์‚ด์„ ๊นŽ์•„๋จน์„
11:19
even at the risk of failure
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์œ„ํ—˜์„ ๊ฐ์ˆ˜ํ•˜๊ณ 
11:21
or the risk of self-disruption.
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์ž์ฒด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ๊ฐํ–‰ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
11:24
Essilor stays ahead of its game,
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์—์‹ค๋Ÿฌ๋Š” ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ์„ ๋„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ 
11:27
and has delivered spectacular performance
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40๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ์‹ ์ค‘ํ•จ๊ณผ ์ ์‘์˜ ์›๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋„์ž…ํ•˜์—ฌ
11:29
for over 40 years,
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11:30
by using the principles of prudence and adaptation.
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๋งŒ์กฑ์Šค๋Ÿฌ์šด ์‹ค์ ์„ ๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:35
OK, if these principles are so powerful, you might be thinking,
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์ด 6์›์น™์ด ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด
11:39
why are they not commonplace in business?
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์™œ ๊ฒฝ์˜์—์„œ ๋„๋ฆฌ ํ™œ์šฉ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์„๊นŒ?
11:42
Why do we not use these words every day?
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ํ•ญ์ƒ ๊ทธ ์›์น™๋Œ€๋กœ ์•ˆ ๋˜๋‚˜? ๋ผ๋Š” ์˜๋ฌธ์ด ๋“œ์‹ค ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:45
Well, change has to first start in the mind.
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์‚ฌ๊ณ ๋ฐฉ์‹์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:47
If we think back to our pitch to Bob,
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๋ฐฅ์—๊ฒŒ ์ธ๊ฐ„ ๋ฉด์—ญ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ธฐ์ ์ด ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ํ•œ ์›์น™๋“ค์„ ์ ์šฉํ•œ
11:50
in order to apply the principles
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11:52
that underpin the miracle of the human immune system,
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์ œํ’ˆ์„ ์ œ์•ˆํ•œ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋Œ์ด์ผœ ๋ณด๋ฉด
11:55
we first need to think differently
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•จ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:58
about business.
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11:59
Now typically, when we think about business,
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๋ณดํ†ต ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋“œ๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ์€
12:02
we use what I call "mechanical thinking."
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'๊ธฐ๊ณ„์ ์ธ ์ƒ๊ฐ'์ด๋ผ ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:05
We set goals,
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๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•œ ๋‹ค์Œ
12:07
we analyze problems,
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12:09
we construct and we adhere to plans,
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๊ณ„ํš์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝํ•˜๊ณ  ์ค€์ˆ˜ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
12:11
and more than anything else,
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๋ฌด์—‡๋ณด๋‹ค ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ๊ณผ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์  ์„ฑ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:12
we stress efficiency and short-term performance.
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12:16
Now, don't get me wrong --
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์™„์ „ ํ‹€๋ฆฐ ๋ฐฉ์‹์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:17
this is a splendidly practical and effective way
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‹ค์†Œ ์•ˆ์ •๋œ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ
12:20
of addressing relatively simple challenges
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๋น„๊ต์  ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋‹ค๋ฃฐ ๋•Œ
12:23
in relatively stable environments.
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์•„์ฃผ ์œ ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ ๋ฐฉ์‹์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:26
It's the way that Bob -- and probably many of us, myself included --
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๋ฐฅ๊ณผ ์ €๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ๋Œ€๋‹ค์ˆ˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
12:29
process most business problems we're faced with every day.
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ํšŒ์‚ฌ์—์„œ ๋ถ€๋”ชํžˆ๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์„ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์ด์ฃ .
12:33
In fact, it was a pretty good mental model for business --
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ณผ ์›๊ฒฉ ํ†ต์‹ ์˜ ๋ฐœ๋‹ฌ๊ณผ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”๊ฐ€
12:37
overall --
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12:38
until about the mid-1980s,
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๊ฒฝ์˜ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์„ ๋งค์šฐ ์œ ๋™์ ์ด๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ 
12:40
when the conjunction of globalization
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12:44
and a revolution in technology and telecommunications
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1980๋…„๋Œ€ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜ ์ •๋„๊นŒ์ง€๋Š”
12:46
made business far more dynamic and unpredictable.
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์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ดœ์ฐฎ์€ ์‚ฌ๊ณ  ๋ฐฉ์‹์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:49
But what about those more dynamic and unpredictable situations
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ ์  ์œ ๋™์ ์ด๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ๋Š”
12:52
that we now increasingly face?
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
12:55
I think in addition to the mechanical thinking,
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์ €๋Š” ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ๊ณ ์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜
12:58
we now need to master the art of biological thinking,
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์—ฌ์„ฏ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์›์น™์œผ๋กœ ์ •๋ฆฌ๋˜๋Š” ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์  ์‚ฌ๊ณ  ์›์น™์„
13:02
as embodied by our six principles.
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์ˆ™๋ จํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:05
In other words, we need to think more modestly and subtly
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„
13:08
about when and how
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ํ†ต์ œํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ์–ธ์ œ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋‹ค๋“ฌ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„์ง€
13:11
we can shape, rather than control,
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13:14
unpredictable and complex situations.
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๊ฒธ์†ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:19
It's a little like the difference between throwing a ball
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๊ณต์„ ์ž˜ ๋˜์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋ฅผ ์ž˜ ํ’€์–ด ์ฃผ๋Š” ๋ฒ•์„
13:23
and releasing a bird.
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
13:25
The ball would head in a straight line,
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๊ณต์€ ๋ถ„๋ช… ์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๋ฅผ
13:27
probably towards the intended target,
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๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ํ–ฅํ•ด ๋”ฐ๋ผ๊ฐˆ ํ…Œ์ง€๋งŒ
13:29
and the bird certainly would not.
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์ƒˆ๋Š” ๋‹น์—ฐํžˆ ์•ˆ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:35
So what do you think?
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
13:37
Sounds a little impractical, a little theoretical, perhaps?
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์ด๋ก ์ ์ด๊ณ  ํ™œ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์—†๋Š” ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋“ค๋ฆฌ์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
13:41
Not at all.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:43
Every small entrepreneurial company
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๋ชจ๋“  ์ž‘์€ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€
13:47
naturally thinks and acts biologically.
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์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ํ–‰๋™ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:50
Why?
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์™œ์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
13:51
Because it lacks the resources to shape its environment
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ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์„ ์ž๊ธฐ ๋งˆ์Œ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ๋งŒํ•œ ์ž์›๊ณผ ํž˜์ด ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:54
through brute force.
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13:55
It lacks the scale to buffer change,
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๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์„ ์™„ํ™”ํ•ด ์ค„ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ
13:59
and it's constantly thinking about the tough odds
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์Šคํƒ€ํŠธ์—…์€ ๊ฐ๋ฐ•ํ•œ ์ƒ์กด ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์„
14:02
for a start-up to survive.
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ํ•ญ์ƒ ์—ผ๋‘์— ๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:06
Now, the irony is, of course,
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๋ชจ๋“  ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์—…์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ
14:08
that every large company started off as a small, entrepreneurial company.
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์ž‘์€ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ค‘๊ฐ„ ๊ณผ์ • ์–ด๋”˜๊ฐ€์—์„œ
14:11
But along the way somewhere,
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์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์ ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๊ณ  ํ–‰๋™ํ• 
14:13
many have lost this ability to think and act biologically.
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๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ์žƒ์–ด๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ธฐ์—… ๋ฐœ์ „์˜ ๋ชจ์ˆœ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:18
They need to rejuvenate their ability to think biologically
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ ์ƒ์กดํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฒˆ์˜์„ ๋ˆ„๋ฆฌ๋ ค๋ฉด
14:23
in order to survive and thrive in today's environment.
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์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๊ณ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ถ€ํ™œ์‹œ์ผœ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:28
So let's not just think about short-term performance.
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๋‹จ๊ธฐ์  ์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์ž๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:32
Every company I know spends plenty of time
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์˜ ์ „๋žต์˜ ์ค‘์  ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ธ
14:34
thinking about the central question of strategy:
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ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ์œ ๋ฆฌํ•œ๊ฐ€์˜ ๋‹ต์„ ์ฐพ์œผ๋ฉด์„œ
14:37
How good is our competitive game?
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์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์†Œ๋น„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:39
In addition, let's also consider
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์ด์ œ๋Š” ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์ ์ธ ๊ด€์ ์—์„œ ๊ทธ๋งŒํผ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ
14:42
the second, more biological and equally important question:
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๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
14:46
How long will that game last?
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์„œ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
14:49
Thank you very much.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:50
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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