How to build a business that lasts 100 years | Martin Reeves

303,358 views ใƒป 2016-09-01

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Michal Shargil Ben Sira ืžื‘ืงืจ: Zeeva Livshitz
00:12
Imagine that you are a product designer.
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ื“ืžื™ื™ื ื• ืฉืืชื ืžืขืฆื‘ื™ ืžื•ืฆืจ.
00:16
And you've designed a product,
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ื•ืืชื ืขื™ืฆื‘ืชื ืžื•ืฆืจ,
00:18
a new type of product, called the human immune system.
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ืกื•ื’ ื—ื“ืฉ ืฉืœ ืžื•ืฆืจ, ืฉื ืงืจื ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ื”ืื ื•ืฉื™ืช.
00:23
You're pitching this product
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ืืชื ืžืฆื™ื’ื™ื ืืช ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ
00:24
to a skeptical, strictly no-nonsense manager.
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ืœืžื ื”ืœ ืกืงืคื˜ื™, ื”ื—ืœื˜ื™ ื•ืขื ื™ื™ื ื™.
00:28
Let's call him Bob.
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ื‘ื•ืื• ื ืงืจื ืœื• ื‘ื•ื‘.
00:29
I think we all know at least one Bob, right?
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื›ื•ืœื ื• ืžื›ื™ืจื™ื ืœืคื—ื•ืช ื‘ื•ื‘ ืื—ื“, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
00:33
How would that go?
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ืื™ืš ืชื™ืจืื” ื”ืฉื™ื—ื”?
00:35
Bob, I've got this incredible idea
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ื‘ื•ื‘, ื™ืฉ ืœื™ ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืžืขื•ืœื”
00:37
for a completely new type of personal health product.
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ืœืกื•ื’ ื—ื“ืฉ ืœื’ืžืจื™ ืฉืœ ืžื•ืฆืจ ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช ืื ื•ืฉื™.
00:40
It's called the human immune system.
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ื–ื” ื ืงืจื ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ื”ืื ื•ืฉื™ืช.
00:43
I can see from your face that you're having some problems with this.
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ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืจืื•ืช ื‘ื”ื‘ืขืช ืคื ื™ืš ืฉื™ืฉ ืœืš ื‘ืขื™ื” ืขื ื–ื”.
00:46
Don't worry. I know it's very complicated.
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ืืœ ืชื“ืื’, ืื ื™ ื™ื•ื“ืข ืฉื–ื” ืžื•ืจื›ื‘.
00:48
I don't want to take you through the gory details,
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืจื•ืฆื” ืœืงื—ืช ืื•ืชืš ื“ืจืš ื›ืœ ื”ืคืจื˜ื™ื ื”ืžืคืจื›ื™ื,
00:51
I just want to tell you about some of the amazing features of this product.
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ืื ื™ ืจืง ืจื•ืฆื” ืœืกืคืจ ืœืš ืขืœ ื›ืžื” ืžื”ืชื›ื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืžื“ื”ื™ืžื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ื”ื–ื”.
00:55
First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy
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ืจืืฉื™ืช, ื”ื•ื ืžืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ื—ื›ืžื” ื‘ื™ืชื™ืจื•ืช
00:58
by having millions of copies of each component --
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ื‘ื›ืš ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื• ืžืœื™ื•ื ื™ ืขื•ืชืงื™ื ืฉืœ ื›ืœ ืจื›ื™ื‘ --
01:01
leukocytes, white blood cells --
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ืœื™ืงื•ืฆื™ื˜ื™ื, ืชืื™ ื“ื ืœื‘ื ื™ื --
01:04
before they're actually needed,
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ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื”ื ื ื“ืจืฉื™ื ืœืžืขืฉื”,
01:05
to create a massive buffer against the unexpected.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ื—ื™ืฅ ืžืกื™ื‘ื™ ื ื’ื“ ื”ื‘ืœืชื™ ืฆืคื•ื™.
01:10
And it cleverly leverages diversity
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืžื ืฆืœ ื‘ื—ื›ืžื” ืืช ื”ื’ื™ื•ื•ืŸ
01:13
by having not just leukocytes but B cells, T cells,
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ื‘ื›ืš ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื• ืœื ืจืง ืœื•ื™ืงื•ืฆื™ื˜ื™ื ืืœื ื’ื ืชืื™ B ื•ืชืื™ T,
01:17
natural killer cells, antibodies.
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ืชืื™ื ืจืฆื—ื ื™ื™ื ื˜ื‘ืขื™ื™ื, ื ื•ื’ื“ื ื™ื.
01:19
The components don't really matter.
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ื”ืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœื ื‘ืืžืช ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื™ื.
01:21
The point is that together,
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ื”ื ืงื•ื“ื” ื”ื™ื ืฉื‘ื™ื—ื“,
01:23
this diversity of different approaches can cope with more or less anything
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ื”ื’ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ื”ื–ื” ืฉืœ ื”ื’ื™ืฉื•ืช ื”ืฉื•ื ื•ืช ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ ืคื—ื•ืช ืื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ืขื ื›ืœ ืžื”
01:27
that evolution has been able to throw up.
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ืฉื”ืื‘ื•ืœื•ืฆื™ื” ื”ื™ืชื” ืžืกื•ื’ืœืช ืœื”ื˜ื™ืœ ืœื›ื™ื•ื•ื ื ื•.
01:31
And the design is completely modular.
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ื•ื”ืขื™ืฆื•ื‘ ื”ื•ื ืœื’ืžืจื™ ืžื•ื“ื•ืœืจื™.
01:35
You have the surface barrier of the human skin,
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ื™ืฉ ืœืš ืืช ืžื—ืกื•ื ืคื ื™ ื”ืฉื˜ื— ืฉืœ ื”ืขื•ืจ ื”ืื ื•ืฉื™,
01:39
you have the very rapidly reacting innate immune system
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ื™ืฉ ืœืš ืืช ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ื”ืžื•ืœื“ืช ืฉืžื’ื™ื‘ื” ื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื”
01:42
and then you have the highly targeted adaptive immune system.
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ื•ืื– ื™ืฉ ืœืš ืžืขืจื›ืช ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ืื“ืคื˜ื™ื‘ื™ืช ืžืื“ ืžืžื•ืงื“ืช.
01:47
The point is, that if one system fails, another can take over,
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ื”ื ืงื•ื“ื” ื”ื™ื, ืฉืื ืžืขืจื›ืช ืื—ืช ื›ื•ืฉืœืช, ืื—ืจืช ื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœืงื—ืช ืฉืœื™ื˜ื”,
01:50
creating a virtually foolproof system.
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ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืžืขืจื›ืช ื›ืžืขื˜ ืžื•ืฉืœืžืช.
01:55
I can see I'm losing you, Bob, but stay with me,
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ื ืจืื” ืœื™ ืฉืื ื™ ืžืื‘ื“ ืื•ืชืš, ื‘ื•ื‘, ืื‘ืœ ื”ื™ืฉืืจ ืื™ืชื™,
01:57
because here is the really killer feature.
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื”ื ื” ื”ืชื›ื•ื ื” ื”ืžื“ื”ื™ืžื” ื‘ืืžืช.
02:01
The product is completely adaptive.
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ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ืžืชืื™ื ืืช ืขืฆืžื• ืœื’ืžืจื™.
02:04
It's able to actually develop targeted antibodies
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ื”ื•ื ืžืกื•ื’ืœ ืœืžืขืฉื” ืœืคืชื— ื ื•ื’ื“ื ื™ื ืžืžื•ืงื“ื™ื
02:09
to threats that it's never even met before.
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ืœืื™ื•ืžื™ื ืฉื”ื•ื ืืคื™ืœื• ืœื ืคื’ืฉ ืงื•ื“ื ืœื›ืŸ.
02:12
It actually also does this with incredible prudence,
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ื–ื” ืœืžืขืฉื” ื’ื ืขื•ืฉื” ื–ืืช ื‘ื–ื”ื™ืจื•ืช ื™ื•ืฆืืช ื“ื•ืคืŸ,
02:17
detecting and reacting to every tiny threat,
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ืžื–ื”ื” ื•ืžื’ื™ื‘ ืœื›ืœ ืื™ื•ื ื–ืขื™ืจ,
02:21
and furthermore, remembering every previous threat,
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ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื–ื”, ื–ื•ื›ืจ ื›ืœ ืื™ื•ื ืงื•ื“ื,
02:25
in case they are ever encountered again.
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ืœืžืงืจื” ืฉืื™ ืคืขื ื™ื™ืชืงืœ ื‘ื• ืฉื•ื‘.
02:28
What I'm pitching you today is actually not a stand-alone product.
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ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืžืฆื™ืข ืœืš ื”ื™ื•ื ื–ื” ืœืžืขืฉื” ืœื ืžื•ืฆืจ ืฉืขื•ืžื“ ื‘ืคื ื™ ืขืฆืžื•.
02:33
The product is embedded in the larger system of the human body,
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ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ืžื•ื˜ืžืข ื‘ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืฉืœ ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ื”ืื ื•ืฉื™,
02:38
and it works in complete harmony with that system,
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืขื•ื‘ื“ ื‘ื”ืจืžื•ื ื™ื” ืžื•ืฉืœืžืช ืขื ื”ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื–ื•,
02:40
to create this unprecedented level of biological protection.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืจืžื” ื—ืกืจืช ืชืงื“ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ื’ื ื” ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช.
02:44
So Bob, just tell me honestly, what do you think of my product?
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ืื– ื‘ื•ื‘, ืจืง ืชื’ื™ื“ ืœื™ ื‘ื›ื ื•ืช, ืžื” ืืชื” ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืขืœ ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ืฉืœื™?
02:48
And Bob may say something like,
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ื•ื‘ื•ื‘ ืขืฉื•ื™ ืœื•ืžืจ ืžืฉื”ื• ื›ืžื•,
02:50
I sincerely appreciate the effort and passion
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ืื ื™ ื‘ืืžืช ืžืขืจื™ืš ืืช ื”ืžืืžืฅ ื•ืืช ื”ืชืฉื•ืงื”
02:53
that have gone into your presentation,
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ืฉื”ืฉืงืขืช ื‘ืžืฆื’ืช ื”ื–ื•,
02:56
blah blah blah --
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ื‘ืœื” ื‘ืœื” ื‘ืœื” --
02:57
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
02:59
But honestly, it's total nonsense.
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื›ื ื•ืช, ื–ื• ืฉื˜ื•ืช ื’ืžื•ืจื”.
03:04
You seem to be saying that the key selling points of your product
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ื ืจืื” ืฉืืชื” ืื•ืžืจ ืฉื”ืžืคืชื— ืœืžื›ื™ืจืช ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ืฉืœืš
03:07
are that it is inefficient and complex.
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ื”ื•ื ืฉื”ื•ื ืื™ื ื• ื™ืขื™ืœ ื•ืžืื“ ืžื•ืจื›ื‘.
03:10
Didn't they teach you 80-20?
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ืœื ืœื™ืžื“ื• ืื•ืชืš 80-20?
03:13
And furthermore, you're saying that this product is siloed.
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ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื–ื”, ืืชื” ืื•ืžืจ ืฉื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ืžื•ื›ืœ.
03:17
It overreacts,
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ื”ื•ื ืžื’ื™ื‘ ื‘ืชื’ื•ื‘ืช ื™ืชืจ,
03:19
makes things up as it goes along
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ืžืžืฆื™ื ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืชื•ืš ื›ื“ื™ ื”ืชืงื“ืžื•ืช
03:20
and is actually designed for somebody else's benefit.
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืœืžืขืฉื” ืžืชื•ื›ื ืŸ ืœืชื•ืขืœืชื• ืฉืœ ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืื—ืจ.
03:23
I'm sorry to break it to you, but I don't think this one is a winner.
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ืื ื™ ืžืฆื˜ืขืจ ืœื•ืžืจ ืœืš ืืช ื–ื”, ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ืœื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ื”ื–ื” ื”ื•ื ืžื ืฆื—.
03:27
If we went with Bob's philosophy,
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ืื ื ืœืš ืขื ื”ืคื™ืœื•ืกื•ืคื™ื” ืฉืœ ื‘ื•ื‘,
03:29
I think we'd actually end up with a more efficient immune system.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื‘ืขืฆื ื ืกื™ื™ื ืขื ืžืขืจื›ืช ื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ื™ืขื™ืœื”.
03:32
And efficiency is always important in the short term.
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ื•ื™ืขื™ืœื•ืช ื”ื™ื ืชืžื™ื“ ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื” ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ.
03:36
Less complex, more efficient, more bang for the buck.
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ืคื—ื•ืช ืžื•ืจื›ื‘, ื™ื•ืชืจ ื™ืขื™ืœ, ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ ืชืžื•ืจื” ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื”ื›ืกืฃ.
03:40
Who could say no to that?
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ืžื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื•ืžืจ ืœื–ื” ืœื?
03:42
Unfortunately, there's one very tiny problem,
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ืœืฆืขืจื™, ื™ืฉ ื‘ืขื™ื” ืื—ืช ืงื˜ื ื”,
03:44
and that is that the user of this product, you or I,
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ื•ื”ื™ื ืฉื”ืžืฉืชืžืฉ ืฉืœ ื”ืžื•ืฆืจ ื”ื–ื”, ืืชื ืื• ืื ื™,
03:47
would probably die within one week of the next winter,
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ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ื›ื ืจืื” ืžืชื™ื ืชื•ืš ืฉื‘ื•ืข ืžืชื—ื™ืœืชื• ืฉืœ ื”ื—ื•ืจืฃ ื”ื‘ื,
03:51
when we encountered a new strain of the influenza virus.
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ื›ืฉื”ื™ื™ื ื• ื ืชืงืœื™ื ื‘ื–ืŸ ื—ื“ืฉ ืฉืœ ื ื’ื™ืฃ ื”ืฉืคืขืช.
03:57
I first became interested in biology and business,
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ืื ื™ ื”ืชื—ืœืชื™ ืœื”ืชืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ืœืจืืฉื•ื ื” ื‘ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื•ืขืกืงื™ื,
04:01
and longevity and resilience,
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ื•ืืจื™ื›ื•ืช ื™ืžื™ื ื•ื—ื•ืกืŸ,
04:03
when I was asked a very unusual question
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ื›ืฉื ืฉืืœืชื™ ืฉืืœื” ื™ื•ืฆืืช ื“ื•ืคืŸ
04:06
by the CEO of a global tech company.
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ืขืœ-ื™ื“ื™ ืžื ื›''ืœ ืฉืœ ื—ื‘ืจืช ื”ื™ื™-ื˜ืง ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™ืช
04:09
And the question was:
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ื•ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ื™ืชื”:
04:10
What do we have to do to make sure that our company lasts 100 years?
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ืžื” ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื›ื“ื™ ืœื•ื•ื“ื ืฉื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉืœื ื• ืชืžืฉื™ืš ืœื”ืชืงื™ื™ื 100 ืฉื ื™ื?
04:18
A seemingly innocent question,
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ืฉืืœื” ืชืžื™ืžื” ืœื›ืื•ืจื”,
04:20
but actually, it's a little trickier than you might think,
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ืื‘ืœ ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื–ื” ืงืฆืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืกื•ื‘ืš ืžืžื” ืฉื ื“ืžื” ืœื›ื,
04:24
considering that the average US public company now
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ื‘ื”ืชื—ืฉื‘ ื‘ื›ืš ืฉื›ื™ื•ื ื”ืžืžื•ืฆืข ืฉืœ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ื•ืช ื‘ืืจื”"ื‘
04:28
can expect a life span of only 30 years.
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ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื’ื™ืข ืœืชื•ื—ืœืช ื—ื™ื™ื ืฉืœ ืจืง 30 ืฉื ื”.
04:33
That is less than half of the life span
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ื–ื” ืคื—ื•ืช ืžืžื—ืฆื™ืช ืžืชื•ื—ืœืช ื”ื—ื™ื™ื
04:35
that its employees can expect to enjoy.
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ืฉืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฆืคื•ื™ื™ื ืœื™ื”ื ื•ืช ืžืžื ื”.
04:39
Now, if you were the CEO of such a company,
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ื›ืขืช, ืื ื”ื™ื™ืชื ื”ืžื ื›''ืœ ืฉืœ ื—ื‘ืจื” ื›ื–ื•,
04:42
badgered by investors and buffeted by change,
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ืฉื”ืžืฉืงื™ืขื™ื ืžืฆื™ืงื™ื ืœื›ื, ื•ืืชื ื ืื‘ืงื™ื ื‘ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ื™ื,
04:46
we might forgive you for not even worrying too much
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ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ืกื•ืœื—ื™ื ืœื›ื ืฉืื™ื ื›ื ื“ื•ืื’ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื™
04:48
about what happens 30 years out.
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ื‘ืงืฉืจ ืœืžื” ืฉื™ืงืจื” ื‘ืขื•ื“ 30 ืฉื ื”.
04:51
But here's something that should keep you awake at night:
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ืื‘ืœ, ื”ื ื” ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ืฉืื™ืจ ืืชื›ื ืขืจื™ื ื‘ืœื™ืœื”:
04:55
the probability that your company will not be around in five year's time,
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ื”ื”ืกืชื‘ืจื•ืช ืฉื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉืœื›ื ืœื ืชื”ื™ื” ื‘ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ื‘ืขื•ื“ ื—ืžืฉ ืฉื ื™ื,
04:59
on average, is now a staggering 32 percent.
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ื‘ืžืžื•ืฆืข, ืขื•ืžื“ืช ื›ืขืช ืขืœ 32%. ืžื–ืขื–ืข.
05:04
That's a one in three chance that your company will be taken over
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ, ื–ื” ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ืฉืœ ืื—ื“ ืœืฉืœื•ืฉื” ืฉื”ืฉืœื™ื˜ื” ื‘ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉืœื›ื ืชื™ืœืงื—
05:08
or will fail within just five years.
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ืื• ืฉื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืชื™ื›ืฉืœ ืชื•ืš ื—ืžืฉ ืฉื ื™ื ื‘ืœื‘ื“.
05:13
Let's come back to our tech CEO's question.
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ื‘ื•ืื• ื ื—ื–ื•ืจ ืœืฉืืœื” ืฉืœ ื”ืžื ื›''ืœ ืฉืœื ื•.
05:16
Where better to turn for advice than nature,
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ืื™ืคื” ื˜ื•ื‘ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืœืžืฆื•ื ืขืฆื” ืžืืฉืจ ื‘ื˜ื‘ืข,
05:19
that's been in the business of life and death
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ืฉื ืžืฆื ื‘ืขื ื™ื™ื ื™ื ืฉืœ ื—ื™ื™ื ื•ืžื•ื•ืช
05:22
for longer than any company?
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืฉื ื™ื ืžื›ืœ ื—ื‘ืจื” ืื—ืจืช?
05:27
As a lapsed biologist,
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ื›ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ ืœืฉืขื‘ืจ,
05:28
I decided to immediately call a real biologist,
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ื”ื—ืœื˜ืชื™ ืžื™ื“ ืœื”ืชืงืฉืจ ืœื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ ืืžื™ืชื™,
05:32
my friend Simon Levin,
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ื—ื‘ืจื™ ืกื™ื™ืžื•ืŸ ืœื•ื™ืŸ,
05:34
Professor of Biology and Mathematics at Princeton University.
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ืคืจื•ืคืกื•ืจ ืœื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื•ืžืชืžื˜ื™ืงื” ื‘ืื•ื ื™ื‘ืจืกื™ื˜ืช ืคืจื™ื ืกื˜ื•ืŸ.
05:38
Together, we looked at a variety of biological systems,
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ื‘ื™ื—ื“, ื”ืกืชื›ืœื ื• ืขืœ ืžื’ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช,
05:42
ranging from natural tropical rainforests
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ื”ื—ืœ ืžื™ืขืจื•ืช ื’ืฉื ื˜ืจื•ืคื™ื™ื ื˜ื‘ืขื™ื™ื
05:45
through to managed forests and fisheries.
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ื•ืขื“ ืœื™ืขืจื•ืช, ื•ื—ื•ื•ืช ื“ื’ื™ื.
05:48
And we asked ourselves the question:
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ื•ืฉืืœื ื• ืืช ืขืฆืžื ื• ืืช ื”ืฉืืœื”:
05:50
What makes these systems resilient and enduring?
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ืžื” ื”ื•ืคืš ืืช ื”ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื”ืœืœื• ืœื’ืžื™ืฉื•ืช ื•ืืจื•ื›ื•ืช ื˜ื•ื•ื—?
05:56
And what we found was that the same six principles
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ื•ืžื” ืฉืžืฆืื ื• ื”ื™ื” ืฉืื•ืชื ืฉืฉืช ื”ืขืงืจื•ื ื•ืช
06:00
that we saw underpinning the miracle of the human immune system
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ืฉืจืื™ื ื• ื‘ื‘ืกื™ืกื• ืฉืœ ื”ืคืœื ื”ื–ื” ืฉืœ ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ื”ืื ื•ืฉื™ืช
06:03
actually cropped up again and again,
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ืœืžืขืฉื” ืฆืฆื™ื ืฉื•ื‘ ื•ืฉื•ื‘,
06:07
from redundancy through to embeddedness.
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ืžื™ึฐืชึดื™ืจื•ึผืช ืœื”ื˜ืžืขื”.
06:11
In fact, we saw these principles not only in biologically enduring systems,
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ืœืžืขืฉื” ืจืื™ื ื• ืืช ื”ืขืงืจื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืืœื” ื‘ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช ืžืชืžืฉื›ื•ืช,
06:15
we also found them being very characteristic
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ืžืฆืื ื• ืื•ืชื ื’ื ืžืืคื™ื™ื ื•ืช ืžืื“
06:18
of long-lived social systems,
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ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื—ื‘ืจืชื™ื•ืช ืฉืžืืจื™ื›ื•ืช ืฉื ื™ื.
06:20
like the Roman Empire and the Catholic Church,
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ื›ืžื• ื”ืื™ืžืคืจื™ื” ื”ืจื•ืžื™ืช ื•ื”ื›ื ืกื™ื™ื” ื”ืงืชื•ืœื™ืช,
06:22
believe it or not.
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ืชืืžื™ื ื• ืื• ืœื.
06:24
We also went on to look at business,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื’ื ืคื ื™ื ื• ืœื”ืชื‘ื•ื ืŸ ืขืœ ืขืกืงื™ื,
06:26
and found that these very same properties also characterized businesses
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ื•ืžืฆืื ื• ื›ื™ ืžืžืฉ ืื•ืชื ื”ื ื›ืกื™ื ืžืืคื™ื™ื ื™ื ื’ื ืขืกืงื™ื
06:30
that were resilient and long-lived,
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ืฉื”ื™ื• ืขืžื™ื“ื™ื ื•ื”ืชืงื™ื™ืžื• ืฉื ื™ื ืืจื•ื›ื•ืช,
06:32
and we noted their absence from ones which were short-lived.
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ื•ืฉืžื ื• ืœื‘ ืฉื”ื ื ืขื“ืจื• ืžืืœื• ืฉืœื ื”ืืจื™ื›ื• ื™ืžื™ื.
06:39
Let's first take a look at what happens when the corporate immune system
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ื‘ื•ืื• ืชื—ื™ืœื” ื ืชื‘ื•ื ืŸ ืžื” ืงืจื” ื›ืฉืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื”ืชืื’ื™ื“
06:43
collapses.
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ืงืจืกื”.
06:45
This beautiful building is part of the Shitennoji Temple Complex
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ื”ื‘ื ื™ื™ืŸ ื”ื™ืคื” ื”ื–ื” ื”ื•ื ื—ืœืง ืžืžืชื—ื ื”ืžืงื“ืฉื™ื ืฉื™ื˜ื ื•ื’'ื™
06:49
in Osaka, Japan.
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ืฉื‘ืื•ืกืงื”, ื™ืคืŸ.
06:51
In fact, it's one of the oldest temples in Japan.
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื–ื” ืื—ื“ ืžื”ืžืงื“ืฉื™ื ื”ืขืชื™ืงื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ื™ืคืŸ
06:55
It was built by a Korean artisan,
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ื”ื•ื ื ื‘ื ื” ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืืžืŸ ืงื•ืจื™ืื ื™,
06:57
because at the time, Japan was not yet building temples.
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ื›ื™ ื‘ืื•ืชื• ื”ื–ืžืŸ, ื™ืคืŸ ืขื•ื“ ืœื ื‘ื ืชื” ืžืงื“ืฉื™ื.
07:00
And this Korean artisan went on to found a temple-building company.
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ื•ื”ืืžืŸ ื”ืงื•ืจื™ืื ื™ ื”ื–ื” ื—ื™ืคืฉ ื—ื‘ืจื” ืœื‘ื ื™ื™ืช ืžืงื“ืฉื™ื.
07:07
Amazingly, his company, Kongล Gumi,
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžื“ื”ื™ื, ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉืœื•, ืงื•ื ื’ื• ื’ื•ืžื™,
07:10
was still around 1,428 years later.
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ื”ื™ืชื” ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื‘ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื”, 1,428 ืฉื ื™ื ืžืื•ื—ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ.
07:15
In fact, it became the oldest continuously operating company
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื”ื™ื ื”ืคื›ื” ืœื—ื‘ืจื” ื”ืคืขื™ืœื” ื”ื•ืชื™ืงื” ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ
07:19
in the world.
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ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
07:21
So how is Kongล Gumi doing today?
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ืื– ืžื” ืžืฆื‘ื” ืฉืœ ืงื•ื ื’ื• ื’ื•ืžื™ ื›ื™ื•ื?
07:26
Not too well, I'm afraid.
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ืœื ื›ืœ-ื›ืš ื˜ื•ื‘, ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉืฉ.
07:28
It borrowed very heavily
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ื”ื™ื ืœื•ื•ืชื” ื›ืกืฃ ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื›ื‘ื“
07:29
during the bubble period of the Japanese economy,
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ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ืชืงื•ืคืช ื”ื‘ื•ืขื” ืฉืœ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื” ื”ื™ืคื ื™ืช,
07:32
to invest in real estate.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืฉืงื™ืข ื‘ื ื“ืœ''ืŸ.
07:34
And when the bubble burst, it couldn't refinance its loans.
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ื•ื›ืฉื”ืชืคื•ืฆืฆื” ื”ื‘ื•ืขื”, ื”ื™ื ืœื ื”ืฆืœื™ื—ื” ืœื”ื—ื–ื™ืจ ืืช ื”ื”ืœื•ื•ืื•ืช.
07:38
The company failed,
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ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ื›ืฉืœื”,
07:39
and it was taken over by a major construction company.
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ื•ื”ืฉืœื™ื˜ื” ื‘ื” ื ืœืงื—ื” ืขืœ-ื™ื“ื™ ื—ื‘ืจืช ื‘ื ื™ื™ื” ื’ื“ื•ืœื”.
07:44
Tragically, after 40 generations of very careful stewardship
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื˜ืจื’ื™, ืื—ืจื™ 40 ื“ื•ืจื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ื—ื–ืงื” ืงืคื“ื ื™ืช ืžืื“
07:49
by the Kongล family,
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžืฉืคื—ืช ืงื•ื ื’ื•,
07:51
Kongล Gumi succumbed to a spectacular lapse
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ืงื•ื ื’ื• ื’ื•ืžื™ ื ื›ื ืขื” ืœื”ืชื“ืจื“ืจื•ืช ืžืจื”ื™ื‘ื”
07:55
in the ability to apply a principle of prudence.
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ื‘ื™ื›ื•ืœืชื” ืœื™ื™ืฉื ืืช ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ ื”ื–ื”ื™ืจื•ืช.
08:00
Speaking of company failures:
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ื•ืื ื›ื‘ืจ ืžื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื›ืฉืœื™ื ืฉืœ ื—ื‘ืจื”:
08:03
we're all familiar with the failure of Kodak,
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ื›ื•ืœื ื• ืžื›ื™ืจื™ื ืืช ื”ื›ื™ืฉืœื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื—ื‘ืจืช ืงื•ื“ืืง,
08:06
the company that declared bankruptcy
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ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉื”ืฆื”ื™ืจื” ืขืœ ืคืฉื™ื˜ืช ืจื’ืœ
08:09
in January 2012.
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ื‘ื™ื ื•ืืจ 2012.
08:13
Much more interesting, however, is the question:
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ืฉืžืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ื™ื•ืชืจ, ื”ื™ื ื”ืฉืืœื”:
08:17
Why did Fujifilm --
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ืœืžื” ื—ื‘ืจืช ืคื•ื’'ื™ ืคื™ืœื --
08:19
same product, same pressures from digital technology, same time --
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ืขื ืื•ืชื• ืžื•ืฆืจ, ืื•ืชื ื”ืœื—ืฆื™ื ืžื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื”ื“ื™ื’ื™ื˜ืœื™ืช, ื•ื‘ืื•ืชื• ื”ื–ืžืŸ --
08:24
why was Fujifilm able to survive and flourish?
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ืœืžื” ืคื•ื’'ื™ ืคื™ืœื ื”ืฆืœื™ื—ื” ืœืฉืจื•ื“ ื•ืœืฉื’ืฉื’?
08:30
Fujifilm used its capabilities in chemistry, material science and optics
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ืคื•ื’'ื™ ืคื™ืœื ื”ืฉืชืžืฉื” ื‘ื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืชื™ื” ื‘ื›ื™ืžื™ื”, ืžื“ืข ื”ื—ื•ืžืจื™ื, ื•ื‘ืื•ืคื˜ื™ืงื”
08:37
to diversify into a number of areas,
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื’ื•ื•ืŸ ื‘ื›ื ื™ืกืชื” ืœืžืกืคืจ ืชื—ื•ืžื™ื,
08:40
ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals,
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ืžืงื•ืกืžื˜ื™ืงื” ื“ืจืš ืคืจืžืฆื‘ื˜ื™ืงื”,
08:44
to medical systems to biomaterials.
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ื•ืขื“ ืœืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ืจืคื•ืื™ื•ืช ื•ื—ื•ืžืจื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื™ื.
08:46
Some of these diversification attempts failed.
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ื›ืžื” ืžื”ื ื™ืกื™ื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืืœื• ืœื’ื•ื•ืŸ ื ื›ืฉืœื•.
08:49
But in aggregate,
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืžืฆื˜ื‘ืจ,
08:51
it was able to adapt its portfolio sufficiently
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ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ื”ืฆืœื™ื—ื” ืœื”ืชืื™ื ืืช ืขืฆืžื” ื•ืืช ื”ืคื•ืจื˜ืคื•ืœื™ื• ืฉืœื” ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืกืคื™ืง
08:55
to survive and flourish.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœืฉืจื•ื“ ื•ืœืฉื’ืฉื’.
08:58
As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it,
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ื›ืžื• ืฉืืžืจ ื”ืžื ื›'ืœ, ืžืจ ืงื•ืžื•ืจื™,
09:01
the strategy succeeded because it had "more pockets and drawers"
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ื”ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ื”ืฆืœื™ื—ื” ืžืฉื•ื ืฉื”ื™ื• ืœื” "ื™ื•ืชืจ ื›ื™ืกื™ื ื•ืžื’ื™ืจื•ืช"
09:05
than the rivals.
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ืžืืฉืจ ืœื™ืจื™ื‘ื™ื.
09:07
He meant, of course,
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืชื›ื•ื•ืŸ, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ,
09:08
that they were able to create more options than the rivals.
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ืฉื”ื ื”ืฆืœื™ื—ื• ืœื™ื™ืฆืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืืคืฉืจื•ื™ื•ืช ืžืืฉืจ ื”ืžืชื—ืจื™ื.
09:13
Fujifilm survived because it applied the principles of prudence,
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ืคื•ื’'ื™ ืคื™ืœื ืฉืจื“ื” ืžืฉื•ื ืฉื”ื™ื ื™ื™ืฉืžื” ืืช ืขืงืจื•ืŸ ื”ื–ื”ื™ืจื•ืช,
09:17
diversity
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ื’ื™ื•ื•ืŸ
09:18
and adaptation.
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ื•ื”ืกืชื’ืœื•ืช.
09:21
A catastrophic factory fire, like the one we see here,
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ืฉืจื™ืคื” ืงื˜ืกื˜ืจื•ืคืœื™ืช ื‘ืžืคืขืœ, ื›ืžื• ื–ื• ืฉืื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ื›ืืŸ,
09:25
completely wiped out, in one evening,
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ืžื—ืงื” ื›ืœื™ืœ, ื‘ืขืจื‘ ืื—ื“,
09:28
the only plant which supplied Toyota with valves for car-braking systems.
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ืืช ื”ืžืคืขืœ ื”ื™ื—ื™ื“ ืฉืกื™ืคืง ืœื˜ื•ื™ื•ื˜ื” ืืช ื”ืฉืกืชื•ืžื™ื ืœืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื”ื‘ืœื™ืžื” ืฉืœ ื”ืจื›ื‘ื™ื.
09:36
The ultimate test of resilience.
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ื–ื” ื”ืžื‘ื—ืŸ ื”ืื•ืœื˜ื™ืžื˜ื™ื‘ื™ ืœื—ื•ืกืŸ.
09:40
Car production ground to a screeching halt.
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ื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ื”ืจื›ื‘ื™ื ื ืขืฆืจ ื‘ื—ืจื™ืงืช ื‘ืœืžื™ื.
09:44
How was it, then, that Toyota was able to recover car production?
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ืื– ืื™ืš ื–ื”, ืื ื›ืŸ, ืฉื˜ื•ื™ื•ื˜ื” ื”ื™ืชื” ืžืกื•ื’ืœืช ืœืื•ืฉืฉ ืืช ื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ื”ืจื›ื‘?
09:50
Can you imagine how long it took?
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ื”ืื ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื“ืžื™ื™ืŸ ื›ืžื” ื–ืžืŸ ื–ื” ืœืงื—?
09:52
Just five days.
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ืจืง ืืจื‘ืขื” ื™ืžื™ื.
09:54
From having no braking valves to complete recovery in five days.
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ืžืžืฆื‘ ื‘ื• ืœื ื”ื™ื• ืœื”ื ืฉืกืชื•ืžื™ ื‘ืœืžื™ื ืœื”ืชืื•ืฉืฉื•ืช ืžืœืื” ื‘ื—ืžื™ืฉื” ื™ืžื™ื.
09:58
How was this possible?
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ืื™ืš ื–ื” ื”ืชืืคืฉืจ?
10:00
Toyota managed its network of suppliers in such a collaborative manner
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ื˜ื•ื™ื•ื˜ื” ื ื™ื”ืœื” ืืช ืจืฉืช ื”ืกืคืงื™ื ืฉืœื” ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืฉื™ืชื•ืคื™ ื›ื–ื”
10:06
that it could work very quickly and smoothly with suppliers
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ืฉื”ื™ื ื™ื›ืœื” ืœืขื‘ื•ื“ ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืžื”ื™ืจื” ื•ืžืื“ ื—ืœืงื” ืขื ื”ืกืคืงื™ื ืฉืœื”
10:10
to repurpose production,
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ื”ื™ื™ืขื•ื“ ื‘ื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ,
10:13
fill the missing braking valve capacity
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ืœืžื™ืœื•ื™ ื”ืงื™ื‘ื•ืœืช ื”ื—ืกืจื” ืฉืœ ื”ืฉืกืชื•ืžื™ื ืœื‘ืœืžื™ื
10:15
and have car production come online again.
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ื•ื›ืš ืœื”ื—ื–ื™ืจ ืืช ื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ื”ืจื›ื‘ื™ื ื‘ื—ื–ืจื” ืœืื•ื•ื™ืจ.
10:20
Toyota applied the principles of modularity of its supply network,
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ื˜ื•ื™ื•ื˜ื” ื™ื™ืฉืžื” ืืช ื”ืขืงืจื•ื ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžื•ื“ื•ืœืจื™ื•ืช ื‘ืฉืจืฉืจืช ื”ื”ืกืคืงื” ืฉืœื”,
10:24
embeddedness in an integrated system
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ื”ื˜ืžืขื” ื‘ืžืขืจื›ืช ืžืฉื•ืœื‘ืช
10:27
and the functional redundancy to be able to repurpose, smoothly,
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ื•ืืช ื”ืขื•ื“ืฃ ื”ืคื•ื ืงืฆื™ื•ื ืœื™ ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืกื•ื’ืœืช ืœืฉื ื•ืช ื™ื™ืขื•ื“, ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื—ืœืง,
10:31
existing capacity.
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ืฉืœ ืงื™ื‘ื•ืœืช ืงื™ื™ืžืช.
10:34
Now fortunately, few companies succumb to catastrophic fires.
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ื›ืขืช ืœืจื•ืข ื”ืžื–ืœ, ืžืกืคืจ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื›ืฉืœื• ืื—ืจื™ ืฉืจื™ืคื•ืช ืงื˜ืกื˜ืจื•ืคืœื™ื•ืช.
10:39
But we do read in the newspaper every day about companies
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื—ื ื• ืงื•ืจืื™ื ื‘ืขื™ืชื•ืŸ ืžื“ื™ ื™ื•ื ืื•ื“ื•ืช ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช
10:42
succumbing to the disruption of technology.
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ืฉื›ื•ืฉืœื•ืช ื‘ืฉืœ ืฉื™ื‘ื•ืฉ ืฉืœ ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
10:46
How is it, then, that the consumer optics giant Essilor
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ืื ื›ืŸ, ืื™ืš ื–ื” ืฉื”ืฆืจื›ืŸ ืฉืœ ืขื ืงื™ืช ื”ืื•ืคื˜ื™ืงื” ''ืืกื™ืœื•ืจ'' (Essilor)
10:50
is able to avoid technology disruption, and even profit from it?
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ืžืฆืœื™ื— ืœื”ื™ืžื ืข ืžืฉื™ื‘ื•ืฉ ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื•ืืคื™ืœื• ืžืจื•ื•ื™ื— ืžื›ืš?
10:55
And yes, technology disruption is not only a big deal
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ื•ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ, ืฉื™ื‘ื•ืฉ ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื–ื” ืœื ืจืง ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ื’ื“ื•ืœ
10:58
in software and electronics.
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ื‘ืชื•ื›ื ื” ื•ืืœืงื˜ืจื•ื ื™ืงื”.
11:01
Essilor carefully scans the competitive environment
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ืืกื™ืœื•ืจ ืกื•ืจืงืช ื‘ื–ื”ื™ืจื•ืช ืืช ื”ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ื”ืชื—ืจื•ืชื™ืช
11:06
for potentially disruptive technologies.
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ืœืฉื™ื‘ื•ืฉื™ ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืืคืฉืจื™ื™ื.
11:09
It acquires those technologies very early,
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ื”ื™ื ืจื•ื›ืฉืช ืืช ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช ื”ืืœื• ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ืžืื“ ืžื•ืงื“ื,
11:12
before they've become expensive or competitors have mobilized around them,
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ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื”ืŸ ืžืชื™ื™ืงืจื•ืช ืื• ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื”ืžืชื—ืจื™ื ื”ืชืงื‘ืฆื• ืกื‘ื™ื‘ืŸ,
11:16
and it then develops those technologies itself,
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ื•ืื– ื”ื™ื ืžืคืชื—ืช ืืช ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช ื”ืืœื• ื‘ืขืฆืžื”,
11:19
even at the risk of failure
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ืืคื™ืœื• ื‘ืžื—ื™ืจ ืฉืœ ื›ืฉืœื•ืŸ
11:21
or the risk of self-disruption.
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ืื• ื‘ืžื—ื™ืจ ืฉืœ ืฉื™ื‘ื•ืฉ-ืขืฆืžื™.
11:24
Essilor stays ahead of its game,
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ืืกื™ืœื•ืจ ื ืฉืืจืช ื‘ืงื™ื“ืžืช ื”ืžื’ืจืฉ ืฉืœื”,
11:27
and has delivered spectacular performance
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ื•ืกื™ืคืงื” ื‘ื™ืฆื•ืขื™ื ื™ื•ืฆืื™ื ืžื”ื›ืœืœ
11:29
for over 40 years,
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ืžืขืœ 40 ืฉื ื”,
11:30
by using the principles of prudence and adaptation.
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ืขืœ-ื™ื“ื™ ืฉื™ืžื•ืฉ ื‘ืขืงืจื•ื ื•ืช ืฉืœ ื–ื”ื™ืจื•ืช ื•ื”ืกืชื’ืœื•ืช.
11:35
OK, if these principles are so powerful, you might be thinking,
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ื˜ื•ื‘, ืื– ืื ื”ืขืงืจื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืืœื• ื—ื–ืงื™ื ื›ืœ ื›ืš, ืืชื ืขืฉื•ื™ื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘,
11:39
why are they not commonplace in business?
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ืœืžื” ื”ื ืœื ื“ื‘ืจ ืฉื‘ืฉื’ืจื” ื‘ืขืกืงื™ื?
11:42
Why do we not use these words every day?
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ืžื“ื•ืข ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ื ื‘ืžื™ืœื™ื ืืœื• ืžื“ื™ ื™ื•ื?
11:45
Well, change has to first start in the mind.
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืฆืจื™ืš ืจืืฉื™ืช ืœื”ืชื—ื™ืœ ื‘ืจืืฉ.
11:47
If we think back to our pitch to Bob,
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ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื•ื–ืจื™ื ื‘ื—ื–ืจื” ืœืฉื™ื—ืชื ื• ืขื ื‘ื•ื‘,
11:50
in order to apply the principles
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ื‘ืžื˜ืจื” ืœื™ื™ืฉื ืืช ื”ืขืงืจื•ื ื•ืช
11:52
that underpin the miracle of the human immune system,
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ืฉืžื—ื–ืงื™ื ืืช ื”ืงืกื ืฉืœ ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ื”ืื ื•ืฉื™ืช,
11:55
we first need to think differently
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ืขืœื™ื ื• ืงื•ื“ื ื›ืœ ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืฉื•ื ื”
11:58
about business.
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ืขืœ ืขืกืงื™ื.
11:59
Now typically, when we think about business,
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ื‘ื“ืจืš ื›ืœืœ, ื›ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ืขืกืงื™ื,
12:02
we use what I call "mechanical thinking."
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ื ื‘ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืžื›ื ื” "ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืžื›ืื ื™ืช".
12:05
We set goals,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฆื™ื‘ื™ื ืžื˜ืจื•ืช,
12:07
we analyze problems,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืžื ืชื—ื™ื ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช,
12:09
we construct and we adhere to plans,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื‘ื•ื ื™ื ืชื•ื›ื ื™ื•ืช ื•ื“ื•ื‘ืงื™ื ื‘ื”ืŸ,
12:11
and more than anything else,
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ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื›ืœ ื“ื‘ืจ ืื—ืจ,
12:12
we stress efficiency and short-term performance.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืฉืžื™ื ื“ื’ืฉ ืขืœ ื™ืขื™ืœื•ืช ื•ื‘ื™ืฆื•ืขื™ื ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื—-ื”ืงืฆืจ.
12:16
Now, don't get me wrong --
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ื•ืืœ ืชื‘ื™ื ื• ืื•ืชื™ ืœื ื ื›ื•ืŸ --
12:17
this is a splendidly practical and effective way
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ื–ื• ื“ืจืš ื ื”ื“ืจืช, ืžืขืฉื™ืช ื•ื™ืขื™ืœื”
12:20
of addressing relatively simple challenges
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ืœื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ื•ืช ืขื ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืคืฉื•ื˜ื™ื ื™ื—ืกื™ืช
12:23
in relatively stable environments.
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ื‘ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ืฉื”ื™ื ื™ื—ืกื™ืช ื™ืฆื™ื‘ื”.
12:26
It's the way that Bob -- and probably many of us, myself included --
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ื–ื• ื”ื“ืจืš ืฉื‘ื” ื‘ื•ื‘ -- ื•ื›ื ืจืื” ืขื•ื“ ืจื‘ื™ื ืžืื™ืชื ื•, ื›ื•ืœืœ ืื•ืชื™ --
12:29
process most business problems we're faced with every day.
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ืžืขื‘ื“ื™ื ืืช ืจื•ื‘ ื”ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื”ืขืกืงื™ื•ืช ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื ืชืงืœื™ื ื‘ื”ืŸ ืžื“ื™ ื™ื•ื.
12:33
In fact, it was a pretty good mental model for business --
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ืžื•ื“ืœ ืžื ื˜ืœื™ ื“ื™ ื˜ื•ื‘ ืœืขืกืงื™ื --
12:37
overall --
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื›ืœืœื™ --
12:38
until about the mid-1980s,
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ืขื“, ื‘ืขืจืš ืืžืฆืข ืฉื ื•ืช ื”ืฉืžื•ื ื™ื,
12:40
when the conjunction of globalization
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ื›ืฉื”ืฉื™ืœื•ื‘ ืฉืœ ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”
12:44
and a revolution in technology and telecommunications
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ื•ืžื”ืคื›ืช ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื•ื”ื˜ืœืงื•ืžื•ื ื™ืงืฆื™ื”
12:46
made business far more dynamic and unpredictable.
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ื’ืจืžื” ืœืขืกืงื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื“ื™ื ืžื™ื™ื ื•ื‘ืœืชื™-ืฆืคื•ื™ื™ื.
12:49
But what about those more dynamic and unpredictable situations
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœืžืฆื‘ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ื“ื™ื ืžื™ื™ื ื•ื‘ืœืชื™ ืฆืคื•ื™ื™ื
12:52
that we now increasingly face?
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ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื ืชืงืœื™ื ื‘ื”ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ ื›ื™ื•ื?
12:55
I think in addition to the mechanical thinking,
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื‘ื ื•ืกืฃ ืœื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื”ืžื›ืื ื™ืช,
12:58
we now need to master the art of biological thinking,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื›ืขืช ืœืฉืœื•ื˜ ื‘ืืžื ื•ืช ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื”ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช,
13:02
as embodied by our six principles.
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ื”ืžื’ื•ืœืžืช ื‘ืฉืฉืช ื”ืขืงืจื•ื ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•.
13:05
In other words, we need to think more modestly and subtly
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ื‘ืžื™ืœื™ื ืื—ืจื•ืช, ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ืฆื ื™ืขื•ืช ื•ื‘ืขื“ื™ื ื•ืช
13:08
about when and how
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืžืชื™ ื•ืื™ืš
13:11
we can shape, rather than control,
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ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืขืฆื‘, ื‘ืžืงื•ื ืœืฉืœื•ื˜,
13:14
unpredictable and complex situations.
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ืžืฆื‘ื™ื ืžื•ืจื›ื‘ื™ื ื•ื‘ืœืชื™-ืฆืคื•ื™ื™ื.
13:19
It's a little like the difference between throwing a ball
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ื–ื” ืงืฆืช ื›ืžื• ื”ื”ื‘ื“ืœ ื‘ื™ืŸ ื–ืจื™ืงืช ื›ื“ื•ืจ
13:23
and releasing a bird.
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ื•ืฉื—ืจื•ืจ ืฆื™ืคื•ืจ.
13:25
The ball would head in a straight line,
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ื”ื›ื“ื•ืจ ื™ืชืงื“ื ื‘ืงื• ื™ืฉืจ,
13:27
probably towards the intended target,
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ืงืจื•ื‘ ืœื•ื•ื“ืื™ ืœื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ื”ืžื˜ืจื” ื”ืžื›ื•ื•ื ืช,
13:29
and the bird certainly would not.
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ื•ื”ืฆื™ืคื•ืจ ื—ื“ ืžืฉืžืขื™ืช ืœื.
13:35
So what do you think?
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ืื– ืžื” ืืชื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื?
13:37
Sounds a little impractical, a little theoretical, perhaps?
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ื ืฉืžืข ืงืฆืช ืœื ืคืจืงื˜ื™ ืงืฆืช ืชืื•ืจื˜ื™, ืื•ืœื™?
13:41
Not at all.
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ืœื’ืžืจื™ ืœื.
13:43
Every small entrepreneurial company
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ื›ืœ ื—ื‘ืจื” ื™ื–ืžื™ืช ืงื˜ื ื”
13:47
naturally thinks and acts biologically.
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื˜ื‘ืขื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ืช ื•ืคื•ืขืœืช ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช.
13:50
Why?
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ืœืžื”?
13:51
Because it lacks the resources to shape its environment
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ื›ื™ ื”ื™ื ื—ืกืจื” ืืช ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื ืœืขื™ืฆื•ื‘ ื”ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื”
13:54
through brute force.
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ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื›ื•ื— ื”ื–ืจื•ืข.
13:55
It lacks the scale to buffer change,
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ื”ื™ื ื—ืกืจื” ืืช ืงื ื” ื”ืžื™ื“ื” ืœืขืฆื•ืจ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™,
13:59
and it's constantly thinking about the tough odds
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ื•ื”ื™ื ื›ืœ ื”ื–ืžืŸ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ืช ืขืœ ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ื ื”ืงืœื•ืฉื™ื
14:02
for a start-up to survive.
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืœืกื˜ืืจื˜-ืืค ื›ื“ื™ ืœืฉืจื•ื“.
14:06
Now, the irony is, of course,
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ื”ืื™ืจื•ื ื™ื” ื”ื™ื, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ,
14:08
that every large company started off as a small, entrepreneurial company.
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ืฉื›ืœ ื—ื‘ืจื” ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื”ืชื—ื™ืœื” ื›ื—ื‘ืจื” ืงื˜ื ื”, ื™ื–ืžื™ืช.
14:11
But along the way somewhere,
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ืื‘ืœ ืœืื•ืจืš ื”ื“ืจืš, ืื™ื›ืฉื”ื•,
14:13
many have lost this ability to think and act biologically.
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ืจื‘ื•ืช ืžื”ืŸ ืื™ื‘ื“ื• ืืช ื”ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื•ืœืคืขื•ืœ ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™.
14:18
They need to rejuvenate their ability to think biologically
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ื”ื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ืฆืขื™ืจ ืžื—ื“ืฉ ืืช ื”ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ืฉืœื”ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™
14:23
in order to survive and thrive in today's environment.
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ื‘ืžื˜ืจื” ืœืฉืจื•ื“ ื•ืœืฉื’ืฉื’ ื‘ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ื”ื™ื•ื.
14:28
So let's not just think about short-term performance.
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ืื– ื‘ื•ืื• ืœื ืจืง ื ื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ื‘ื™ืฆื•ืขื™ื ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ.
14:32
Every company I know spends plenty of time
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ื›ืœ ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉืื ื™ ืžื›ื™ืจ ืžืฉืงื™ืขื” ื–ืžืŸ ืจื‘
14:34
thinking about the central question of strategy:
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ื‘ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืขืœ ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ืช ื”ืžืจื›ื–ื™ืช:
14:37
How good is our competitive game?
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ืขื“ ื›ืžื” ื˜ื•ื‘ ื”ืžืฉื—ืง ื”ืชื—ืจื•ืชื™ ืฉืœื ื•?
14:39
In addition, let's also consider
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ื‘ื ื•ืกืฃ, ื‘ื•ืื• ื ืงื— ื‘ื—ืฉื‘ื•ืŸ ื’ื
14:42
the second, more biological and equally important question:
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ืืช ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ืฉื ื™ื™ื”, ื”ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช ื•ื”ื–ื”ื” ื‘ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื•ืชื”:
14:46
How long will that game last?
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ื›ืžื” ื–ืžืŸ ื™ื™ืžืฉืš ื”ืžืฉื—ืง ื”ื–ื”?
14:49
Thank you very much.
268
889081
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื”.
14:50
(Applause)
269
890286
3170
(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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