Jeremy Heimans: What new power looks like

翻译人员: Yumeng Guo 校对人员: Jing Peng

So this is Anna Hazare,

这是安纳•哈扎尔，

and Anna Hazare may well be the most cutting-edge

哈扎尔或许是当今世界上走在最前沿的

digital activist in the world today.

线上行动主义者。

And you wouldn't know it by looking at him.

从外表是看不出来的。

Hazare is a 77-year-old Indian anticorruption and social justice activist.

印度人哈扎尔现已77岁， 是致力于反腐和司法公正的积极分子。

And in 2011, he was running a big campaign

在2011年，他发动了一场宏大的运动，

to address everyday corruption in India,

挑战印度的日常腐败作风，

a topic that Indian elites love to ignore.

这是印度精英阶层长期有意忽视的问题。

So as part of this campaign,

作为这场运动的一部分，

he was using all of the traditional tactics

他采取了任何一位甘地式运动组织者

that a good Gandhian organizer would use.

都会运用的策略，

So he was on a hunger strike,

即进行绝食抗议，

and Hazare realized through his hunger

绝食经历让哈扎尔意识到，

that actually maybe this time,

在二十一世纪的今天，

in the 21st century,

绝食抗议

a hunger strike wouldn't be enough.

或许无法实现全部的目的。

So he started playing around with mobile activism.

他进而尝试借助手机开展运动。

他做的第一件事是号召民众，

So the first thing he did is he said to people,

"Okay, why don't you send me

「如果你们支持我的反腐运动，

a text message if you support

为什么不发给我

my campaign against corruption?"

一条短信呢？」

So he does this, he gives people a short code,

因此他这样做了，他给人们一个短码，

and about 80,000 people do it.

大约有8万人响应号召。

Okay, that's pretty respectable.

这的确令人敬畏。

But then he decides,

他因而决定，

"Let me tweak my tactics a little bit."

「我要更进一步。」

He says, "Why don't you leave me a missed call?"

他鼓动民众， 「你们为何不给我留一个未接来电呢？」

Now, for those of you who have lived in the global South,

如果你生活在南半球，

you'll know that missed calls

那就会知道未接来电

are a really critical part of global mobile culture.

已成为世界手机文化的重要组成部分，

I see people nodding.

我看到有人点头了。

People leave missed calls all the time:

人们时时刻刻都在利用未接来电：

If you're running late for a meeting

如果你要参加一场会议， 眼看着就要迟到了，

and you just want to let them know that you're on the way,

想让他们知道你在路上，

you leave them a missed call.

给他们一个未接来电就好了。

If you're dating someone and you just want to say "I miss you"

如果你在跟某人谈恋爱， 想表达一下思念之情，

you leave them a missed call.

震他（她）手机一下就好了。

So a note for a dating tip here,

在某些文化中，

这是个约会小技巧，

in some cultures,

if you want to please your lover,

如果你想取悦另一半，

you call them and hang up. (Laughter)

拨通号码，立即挂掉。 （笑声）

So why do people leave missed calls?

话说回来，人们为什么会利用未接来电？

Well, the reason of course is that

原因当然是

they're trying to avoid charges

省去打电话或发短信的费用。

associated with making calls and sending texts.

因此，

So when Hazare asked people to leave him a missed call,

当哈扎尔号召民众为他留一个未接来电时

let's have a little guess how many people actually did this?

我们猜一下，有多少人响应号召？

Thirty-five million.

三千五百万人

So this is one of the largest coordinated actions in human history.

这是人类历史上参与人数最多的运动之一。

It's remarkable.

很了不起。

And this reflects the extraordinary strength of the emerging Indian middle class

蓬勃发展的印度中产阶级由此 展现了其无比雄厚的实力，

and the power that their mobile phones bring.

也展现了利用手机所能积聚的力量。

But he used that,

哈扎尔采用这种方法，

Hazare ended up with this massive CSV file of mobile phone numbers,

最终得到了存储大量 电话号码的CSV文件。

and he used that to deploy

他利用这个方法，

real people power on the ground

汇聚众人的力量，

to get hundreds of thousands of people out on the streets in Delhi

成千上万的民众走向新德里街头，

to make a national point of everyday corruption in India.

举国上下因此对日常腐败恶习投以关注。

It's a really striking story.

这真是个振奋人心的故事。

So this is me when I was 12 years old.

这是12岁的我，

I hope you see the resemblance.

希望你们能看出些相似之处。

And I was also an activist,

我也是个行动主义者，

and I have been an activist all my life.

从小到大，这一点未曾改变过。

I had this really funny childhood

我的童年过得相当有趣，

where I traipsed around the world

周游各国，

meeting world leaders and Noble prize winners,

与全球领导者和诺贝尔奖获得者

talking about Third World debt,

当面讨论第三世界债务问题，

as it was then called,

后来这个问题演变为

and demilitarization.

非军事化问题。

I was a very, very serious child. (Laughter)

自小我就忧国忧民。 （笑声）

And back then,

后来，

in the early '90s,

在90年代初期，

I had a very cutting-edge tech tool of my own:

我拥有了最先进的武器，

the fax.

传真。

And the fax was the tool of my activism.

传真是我践行行动主义的工具。

And at that time, it was the best way

那时，

to get a message to a lot of people

一次性将信息传达给众人

all at once.

传真无疑是最好的办法。

I'll give you one example of a fax campaign that I ran.

我给你们举个例子吧

It was the eve of the Gulf War

在海湾战争前夕，

and I organized a global campaign to flood the hotel,

我组织了一起运动， 号召民众「淹没」，

the Intercontinental in Geneva,

日内瓦的洲际酒店，

where James Baker and Tariq Aziz

詹姆斯•贝克与塔里克•阿齐兹

were meeting on the eve of the war,

将于战前在此会晤，

and I thought if I could flood them with faxes,

我当时想，如果我能用传真号召民众， 「淹没酒店」，

we'll stop the war.

就能阻止这场战争了

Well, unsurprisingly,

然而，不出所料，

that campaign was wholly unsuccessful.

这场运动彻彻底底地失败了。

There are lots of reasons for that,

失败的原因很多，

but there's no doubt that one sputtering fax machine

但毫无疑问的是，

in Geneva was a little bit of a bandwidth constraint

当时在日内瓦， 传真机受宽带限制，

in terms of the ability to get a message to lots of people.

无法有效地将信息传递给大量民众。

And so, I went on to discover some better tools.

因此，我开始寻找更好的工具。

I cofounded Avaaz, which uses the Internet to mobilize people

其后我与他人共同成立了Avaaz， 利用互联网来号召民众，

and now has almost 40 million members,

目前约有4千万名成员，

and I now run Purpose, which is a home for these kinds of

如今我在运营Purpose，

technology-powered movements.

Purpose孕育了那些借助技术力量的运动。

So what's the moral of this story?

这个故事的寓意是什么？

Is the moral of this story,

我讲这个故事是为了说明

you know what, the fax is kind of eclipsed by the mobile phone?

传真逐步被手机取代这一事实吗？

This is another story of tech-determinism?

又是一个技术决定论的故事吗？

Well, I would argue that there's actually more to it than that.

我想说，其寓意远不止于此。

I'd argue that in the last 20 years,

我敢断言，在过去的20年里，

something more fundamental has changed

一些事情发生了根本性的改变，

than just new tech.

而不仅是新技术。

I would argue that there has been a fundamental shift

我敢断言，

in the balance of power

势力的平衡点在世界范围内

in the world.

从根本上发生了转变。

You ask any activist how to understand the world,

你问任何一位行动主义者， 如何看清世界的局势？

and they'll say, "Look at where the power is,

他会说， 「看看势力集中在何处，

who has it, how it's shifting."

谁拥有势力，势力如何转移。」

And I think we all sense that something big is happening.

我认为，我们都能感觉到， 世界在发生某种巨大的改变。

So Henry Timms and I —

因此，某一天，在亨利•蒂姆斯

Henry's a fellow movement builder —

——我开展运动的一位同伴——

got talking one day and we started to think,

与我聊天的时候， 我们想到，

how can we make sense of this new world?

如何理解这个新世界？

How can we describe it and give

如何描述这个世界？

it a framework that makes it more useful?

新世界的格局是什么？ 如何在这个格局下有所作为？

Because we realized that many

因为我们意识到，

of the lessons that we were discovering in movements

我们在运动中习得的经验教训，

actually applied all over the world

适用于全世界范围内的

in many sectors of our society.

社会的方方面面。

So I want to introduce you to this framework:

因此我想向你们介绍这个格局：

Old power, meet new power.

新旧势力的相遇。

And I want to talk to you about what new power is today.

我想跟你们谈谈如今的新兴势力。

New power is the deployment

新势力的发展基于

of mass participation and peer coordination —

大众参与和对等协调

these are the two key elements —

这两个关键因素，

to create change and shift outcomes.

新势力促进变革，影响结果的走向。

And we see new power all around us.

新势力无处不在。

This is Beppe Grillo

这是贝佩•格里洛，

he was a populist Italian blogger

一位意大利博主，宣扬平民主义，

who, with a minimal political apparatus and only some online tools,

他只有最有限的政治工具， 却凭借网络手段，

won more than 25 percent of the vote

在最近意大利的选举中

in recent Italian elections.

赢得了超过25%的选票。

This is Airbnb,

这是Airbnb，

which in just a few years

旗下不曾拥有任何房产，

has radically disrupted the hotel industry

却在短短几年内，

without owning a single square foot of real estate.

震撼了整个酒店行业。

This is Kickstarter,

这是 Kickstarter，

which we know has raised over a billion dollars

从五百多万人手里

from more than five million people.

筹集到十亿多美金。

Now, we're familiar with all of these models.

我们对这些运营模式耳熟能详，

But what's striking is the commonalities,

引入注目的地方在于这些模式的共性，

the structural features of these new models

它们的结构特点，

and how they differ from old power.

以及跟旧势力与众不同的地方。

Let's look a little bit at this.

让我们进一步看这个问题。

Old power is held like a currency.

旧势力运作如同货币流通，

New power works like a current.

新势力运作如同波涛涌动。

Old power is held by a few.

旧势力掌握在少数人手里，

New power isn't held by a few, it's made by many.

新势力并非如此，而是分散在众多人手中。

Old power is all about download,

旧势力完完全全是自上而下，

and new power uploads.

而新势力是自下而上。

And you see a whole set of characteristics that you can trace,

你看到新势力所有的特征 都是有迹可寻的，

whether it's in media or politics or education.

无论是在媒体，政治还是教育领域。

So we've talked a little bit about what new power is.

好，我们刚才谈了谈新势力是什么，

Let's, for a second, talk about what new power isn't.

现在，我们花点时间聊聊新势力不是什么。

New power is not your Facebook page.

新势力不是你的Facebook主页。

I assure you that having a social media strategy

我向你保证，你采用的社交媒体战略，

can enable you to do just as much download

是自上而下的， 你的所获所得，

as you used to do when you had the radio.

跟过去用广播的策略没什么两样。

Just ask Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad,

问一下叙利亚独裁者巴沙尔•阿萨德吧，

I assure you that his Facebook page

我向你保证，他的Facebook主页

has not embraced the power of participation.

并没有实现势力的共同参与。

New power is not inherently positive.

新势力并非是固有的正面力量。

In fact, this isn't an normative argument that we're making,

事实上，我们所做的并不是一种规范性论证。

there are many good things about new power,

新势力有其积极的一面，

but it can produce bad outcomes.

但也会带来负面影响。

More participation, more peer coordination,

更广泛的参与，更深入的对等协调，

sometimes distorts outcomes

有时会带来意想不到的结果。

and there are some things,

有一些事情，

like things, for example, in the medical profession

比如，新势力涉足医疗领域，

that we want new power to get nowhere near.

这绝不是我们希望看到的。

And thirdly, new power is not the inevitable victor.

第三，新势力不是永远的赢家，

In fact, unsurprisingly,

事实上，不出所料的是，

as many of these new power models get to scale,

随着诸多新势力影响力逐步扩大，

what you see is this massive pushback

来自旧势力的阻力

from the forces of old power.

越发强大

Just look at this really interesting epic struggle

就看一下仍在持续的 爱德华•斯诺登和美国国家安全局

going on right now between Edward Snowden and the NSA.

之间的恩恩怨怨吧--- 一个有趣的、史诗性的对决。

You'll note that only one of the two people on this slide

你要注意的是， 两方中只有一方

is currently in exile.

远走他乡，寻求避难。

And so, it's not at all clear

因此，新势力是永远的赢家的说法

that new power will be the inevitable victor.

根本站不住脚。

That said, keep one thing in mind:

这就意味着，有句话你要记在心里：

We're at the beginning of a very steep curve.

我们正处在这个陡峭的曲线的起点。

So you think about some of these new power models, right?

你在考虑某些新势力的模式，没错吧？

These were just like someone's

这些模式在几年前还是某些人

garage idea a few years ago,

在车库里的灵感，

and now they're disrupting entire industries.

如今正颠覆着整个行业。

And so, what's interesting about new power,

因此，新势力有趣之处在于

is the way it feeds on itself.

其自我发展的方式。

Once you have an experience of new power,

一旦你体验过新势力，

you tend to expect and want more of it.

你就会期望享受更多。

So let's say you've used a peer-to-peer lending platform

打个比方，你使用过Lending Tree或Prosper

like Lending Tree or Prosper,

对等借贷平台，

then you've figured out that you don't need the bank,

你会发现你不需要银行了，

and who wants the bank, right?

谁还想用银行服务呢？

And so, that experience tends to embolden you

因此，这种体验会促使你，

it tends to make you want more participation

让你希望这种体验能

across more aspects of your life.

融入生活的其他方面。

And what this gives rise to is

一系列价值观

a set of values.

因此而产生

We talked about the models

that new power has engendered —

我们讨论了新势力

造就的模式——

the Airbnbs, the Kickstarters.

如Airbnbs，Kickstarters。

What about the values?

价值观呢？

And this is an early sketch

这是对新势力

at what new power values look like.

价值观的初步认识

New power values prize transparency above all else.

信息透明是最重要的价值观。

It's almost a religious belief in transparency,

新势力对信息透明 秉持着几近虔诚的信仰。

a belief that if you shine a light on something,

给它一束光，

it will be better.

它就绽放。

And remember that in the 20th century, this was not at all true.

要知道，在20世纪时， 这并不是完全能实现的。

People thought that gentlemen should sit behind closed doors

过去，人们认为绅士们应紧闭大门，

and make comfortable agreements.

暗中达成彼此都满意的协议。

New power values of informal, networked governance.

新势力看重的是非正式的、网络化管理。

New power folks would never have invented the U.N. today,

今天，新势力时代的人 永远不会建立什么联合国，

for better or worse.

连边都沾不上。

New power values participation,

新势力重视参与度，

and new power is all about do-it-yourself.

新势力完全是自己动手做事。

In fact, what's interesting about new power

事实上，新势力有趣的地方在于，

is that it eschews some of the professionalization

它在一定程度上避免了

20世纪时风行

and specialization that was

all the rage in the 20th century.

的职业化和专业化

So what's interesting about these

这些新势力模式和价值观

new power values and these new power models

有趣之处就在于

is what they mean for organizations.

它们对于组织的意义。

So we've spent a bit of time thinking,

我们已花了些时间考虑

how can we plot organizations

该如何在二维坐标上

on a two-by-two where, essentially,

标明各组织所处的位置，

we look at new power values

在这个坐标上，

我们能看到新势力价值观和模式，

and new power models

and see where different people sit?

并能看到不同人所处的位置。

We started with a U.S. analysis,

我们以发生在美国的例子做分析，

and let me show you some interesting findings.

我给你们展示一些有趣的发现。

So the first is Apple.

首先是苹果公司，

In this framework, we actually described Apple

在这个坐标上，我们事实上将苹果公司

as an old power company.

定位于旧势力公司。

That's because the ideology,

原因是其企业意识形态，

the governing ideology of Apple

在苹果公司，盛行的是

is the ideology of the perfectionist

库比蒂诺完美主义

product designer in Cupertino.

产品设计师的意识形态。

It's absolutely about that beautiful, perfect thing descending upon us

这完全是经典无暇的产品

完美地闯入我们的世界。

in perfection.

And it does not value, as a company, transparency.

而且苹果公司并没有信息透明的价值观。

In fact, it's very secretive.

事实上，苹果公司很重视信息保密。

Now, Apple is one of the most succesful companies in the world.

如今，苹果公司是世界上最成功的公司之一。

So this shows that you can

这意味着，

你仍然可以成功追求旧势力策略。

still pursue a successful old power strategy.

But one can argue that there's real vulnerabilites in that model.

有人会说，这个模式有其脆弱的一面。

I think another interesting comparison

我想，还有另一个有趣的例子，

is that of the Obama campaign

即奥巴马竞选

versus the Obama presidency.

与奥巴马执政的对比

(Applause)

（掌声）

Now, I like President Obama,

我喜欢奥巴马总统，

but he ran with new power at his back, right?

但他总在暗中行使新势力，没错吧？

And he said to people,

他曾对我们说，

we are the ones we've been waiting for.

我们在等的那个人就是我们自己。

And he used crowdfunding

他采用群众募资的方式

to power a campaign.

来壮大运动

But when he got into office,

但当他登台后，

he governed like more or less all the other presidents did.

他的表现就或多或少 与其他总统别无二致了。

And this is a really interesting trend,

这真是个有趣的趋势，

is when new power gets powerful,

当新势力变得强大后，

what happens?

会发生什么？

So this is a framework you should look at

因此，你应当考虑一下

and think about where your own organization

你的组织在这个坐标上

sits on it.

所处的位置

And think about where it should be

并考虑一下五年或十年后

in five or 10 years.

你期望它所处的位置。

So what do you do if you're old power?

如果你的组织是旧势力，该怎么做？

Well, if you're there thinking, in old power,

假设你身为旧势力， 如果你这么想，

this won't happen to us.

这不会发生在我们身上

Then just look at the Wikipedia entry for Encyclopædia Britannica.

那么就在维基百科上搜一下 大英百科全书这个词条吧。

Let me tell you, it's a very sad read.

我来告诉你， 这个词条的内容会让人感到伤感

But if you are old power,

如果你的组织是旧势力，

the most important thing you can do is to occupy yourself

对你而言最重要的就是

在别人占领你的地盘前，

before others occupy you,

牢牢守好自己的地盘。

before you are occupied.

Imagine that a group of your biggest skeptics

设想一下，让最质疑你的组织的一群人

are camped in the heart of your organization

驻扎在你的组织核心之处，

asking the toughest questions

提出最尖锐的问题，

and they can see everything inside of your organization.

而且他们可以看到你的组织中的一切。

And ask them, would they like what they see

随后问问他们是否喜欢眼前的事实，

and should our model change?

你的模式需不需要做出改变？

What about if you're new power?

如果你的组织是新势力，该做些什么？

Is new power kind of just riding the wave to glory?

新势力就会一帆风顺，直奔光明吗？

I would argue no.

我会说，不是的。

I would argue that there are some very real challenges

我认为，现实中，在新势力初期阶段

to new power in this nascent phase.

存在一些真正的挑战。

Let's stick with the Occupy Wall Street example for a moment.

让我们花些时间关注在「占领华尔街」运动上。

Occupy was this incredible example of new power,

这个运动是经典的新势力的例子，

the purest example of new power.

且极具代表性。

And yet, it failed to consolidate.

然而，其成果没能得到巩固，

So the energy that it created

因此，该运动所激发出的能量，

was great for the meme phase,

对最初的模仿阶段来说 是难能可贵的。

but they were so committed to participation,

但他们太过专注于参与度，

that they never got anything done.

而没有将任何事情落于实处。

And in fact that model

事实上，这个模式意味着，

means that the challenge for new power is:

对新势力的挑战在于：

how do you use institutional power

在未制度化的前提下，

without being institutionalized?

如何发挥制度的优势？

One the other end of the spectra is Uber.

坐标轴另一端的例子是Uber。

Uber is an amazing,

Uber很不可思议，

highly scalable new power model.

拥有强大的新势力模式，

That network is getting denser and denser

且影响范围极易扩张，

by the day.

网络覆盖率变得越来越密集

But what's really interesting about Uber is

但Uber真正有趣的地方在于

it hasn't really adopted new power values.

它并没有秉持新势力价值观。

This is a real quote from the Uber CEO recently:

下面这句话引自Uber的首席执行官，

He says, "Once we get rid of the dude in the car" — he means drivers —

「一旦我们摆脱出租车里的这位老兄」 ——他指司机——

"Uber will be cheaper."

「Uber就会便宜了。」

Now, new power models live and die

如今，这些新势力模式生死取决于

by the strength of their networks.

关系网络是否强大，

By whether the drivers and the consumers

也取决于司机和消费者

who use the service actually believe in it.

——这些接受这项服务的人——是否相信它。

Because they're not an exercise of top-down perfectionism,

因为它们并不是自上而下的完美主义成果，

they are about the network.

而是关于关系网络的。

And so, the challenge,

因此，这个挑战，

and this is why it's in no way surprising,

这就是为什么Uber的司机

is that Uber's drivers are now unionizing.

正着手成立工会， 这真的一点儿都不让人感觉奇怪

It's extraordinary.

这真的不同寻常

Uber's drivers are turning on Uber.

Uber的司机正在对抗Uber，

And the challenge for Uber —

Uber面临的挑战——

this isn't an easy situation for them —

对他们而言不是好形势——

is that they are locked into a broader superstrcuture

是他们已被困在更宽泛的上层结构中，

that is really old power.

而这无疑是旧势力。

They've raised more than a billion dollars in the capital markets.

他们已在资本市场募集超过十亿美金，

Those markets expect a financial return,

市场期望获得经济回报，

and they way you get a financial return

而获得经济回报的方式，

is by squeezing and squeezing

就是不断不断地压榨

your users and your drivers

你的用户和司机，

for more and more value

获取更多的利润，

and giving that value to your investors.

转移到投资者手中。

So the big question about the future of new power, in my view, is:

未来新势力的关键问题， 在我看来，即：

Will that old power just emerge?

旧势力会出现吗？

So will new power elites just become

新势力的精英们

old power and squeeze?

会变为旧势力，并压榨他人吗？

Or will that new power base bite back?

或者，新势力的基础会走回头路吗？

Will the next big Uber

下一个Uber

be co-owned by Uber drivers?

会由Uber的司机共同拥有吗？

And I think this going to be a very interesting

我认为，这会是一个很有趣的

structural question.

结构层面上的问题。

Finally, think about new power

最后，新势力不只是

being more than just an

扩大事物的影响范围

entity that scales things

让我们

that make us have slightly better consumer experiences.

拥有了更好的用户体验。

My call to action for new power

我对于新势力的呼吁是，

is to not be an island.

不要孤立。

We have major structural problems in the world today

今天我们面临严重的结构性问题，

that could benefit enormously

我们能从广泛参与和对等协调中

from the kinds of mass participation

获益良多，

而广泛参与和对等协调对于

and peer coordination

that these new power players

这些新势力的弄潮者来说

know so well how to generate.

可谓轻车熟路。

And we badly need them to turn their energies and their power

我们急需他们将能量和势力

转移到这些严重的问题上，

to big, what economists might call

经济学家或许会称其为公共财产问题，

public goods problems,

that are often beyond markets

这些问题通常远在市场之外，

where investors can easily be found.

投资者不会轻易发现。

And I think if we can do that,

我认为，如果我们能做到这一点，

we might be able to fundamentally change

我们或许不仅能从根本上改变

not only human beings' sense of their own agency and power —

人们对于其自身能力的看法——

because I think that's the most wonderful thing about new power,

因为，我认为这是对于 新势力而言最美好的事情，

is that people feel more powerful —

即人们感觉自身势力更强大——

but we might also be able to change

或许还能改变

the way we relate to each other

我们与他人之间相处的方式，

and the way we relate to authority and institutions.

与权贵和机构来往的方式。

And to me, that's absolutely

对于我而言，

这完全值得努力去争取。

worth trying for.

Thank you very much.

非常感谢你们。

(Applause)

（掌声）