Jeremy Heimans: What new power looks like

譯者: Yamei Huang 審譯者: Jack Ricardo

So this is Anna Hazare,

這位是安納·哈扎爾，

and Anna Hazare may well be the most cutting-edge

安納·哈扎爾可能是現今世界上

digital activist in the world today.

最前衛的數位社會運動的人。

And you wouldn't know it by looking at him.

從外表你是看不出來。

Hazare is a 77-year-old Indian anticorruption and social justice activist.

哈扎爾是一位 77 歲的印度 反貪腐及宣揚社會正義的社運人士。

And in 2011, he was running a big campaign

2011 年，他發起了 一個大規模的活動

to address everyday corruption in India,

挑戰印度隨處可見的貪腐，

a topic that Indian elites love to ignore.

這是一個印度權貴階級 有意忽視的問題。

So as part of this campaign,

身為活動的一份子，

he was using all of the traditional tactics

他使用傳統的戰術

that a good Gandhian organizer would use.

就像甘地社會活動組織者使用的戰術。

So he was on a hunger strike,

他進行一次絕食抗議，

and Hazare realized through his hunger

哈扎爾意識到到他絕食的過程中

that actually maybe this time,

或許這一次，

in the 21st century,

在 21 世紀的今天，

a hunger strike wouldn't be enough.

絕食抗議是不夠的。

So he started playing around with mobile activism.

於是他開始規劃以手機展開抗議。

So the first thing he did is he said to people,

他做的第一件事情， 就是告訴人們，

"Okay, why don't you send me

「為何不以手機傳

a text message if you support

一封簡訊給我

my campaign against corruption?"

如果你支持我所發起的反貪污運動？」

So he does this, he gives people a short code,

他這樣做了， 他給大家一組短碼，

and about 80,000 people do it.

大約有八萬人傳了簡訊給他。

Okay, that's pretty respectable.

這的確令人敬佩。

But then he decides,

然後決定，

"Let me tweak my tactics a little bit."

「讓我稍稍改變一下策略。」

He says, "Why don't you leave me a missed call?"

他說， 「為何不給我留一通未接來電？」

Now, for those of you who have lived in the global South,

對於在南半球居住過的你們，

you'll know that missed calls

你會知道「未接來電」

are a really critical part of global mobile culture.

在行動通訊文化裡 扮演著一個很重要的角色。

I see people nodding.

我看到有人在點頭。

People leave missed calls all the time:

人們總是收到「未接來電」：

If you're running late for a meeting

如果你知道參加會議要遲到了，

and you just want to let them know that you're on the way,

而你只是想讓他們知道 你已經在路上了，

you leave them a missed call.

就給他們一個「未接來電」。

If you're dating someone and you just want to say "I miss you"

如果你正在跟某人交往， 而你只是想讓對方知道「我想你」

you leave them a missed call.

就留一個「未接來電」。

So a note for a dating tip here,

給大家提供一個交往的建議，

in some cultures,

在某些文化裡，

if you want to please your lover,

如果你想要取悅你的另一半，

you call them and hang up. (Laughter)

打電話給他們然後馬上掛斷。 （笑聲）

So why do people leave missed calls?

為什麼人們總是留未接來電？

Well, the reason of course is that

原因當然是，

they're trying to avoid charges

他們想要省下那些因為

associated with making calls and sending texts.

撥打電話和傳送簡訊的話費。

So when Hazare asked people to leave him a missed call,

當哈扎爾要求人們 給他留未接來電之後，

let's have a little guess how many people actually did this?

讓我們來猜一下 究竟有多少人實際這麼做了？

Thirty-five million.

三千五百萬人。

So this is one of the largest coordinated actions in human history.

這是人類歷史上 參與人數最多的活動之一，

It's remarkable.

真是了不起。

And this reflects the extraordinary strength of the emerging Indian middle class

而這反映了正在崛起中的印度 中產階級超乎尋常的力量，

and the power that their mobile phones bring.

以及他們使用行動電話 所能帶來的力量。

But he used that,

哈扎爾利用這種方法，

Hazare ended up with this massive CSV file of mobile phone numbers,

得到了這個包含 大量行動電話號碼的 CSV 檔，

and he used that to deploy

並利用這個方法

real people power on the ground

聚集人力。

to get hundreds of thousands of people out on the streets in Delhi

促使數十萬人聚集到德里街頭

to make a national point of everyday corruption in India.

讓印度隨時發生的貪腐問題 變成一個大家關注的焦點。

It's a really striking story.

這真是令人振奮的故事。

So this is me when I was 12 years old.

這是 12 歲的我。

I hope you see the resemblance.

但願你看到了某些相似之處。

And I was also an activist,

我也是個活動家，

and I have been an activist all my life.

一生如此。

I had this really funny childhood

我的童年充滿樂趣

where I traipsed around the world

得以漫遊世界，

meeting world leaders and Noble prize winners,

與世界領導人和諾貝爾獲獎者會面，

talking about Third World debt,

討論第三世界債務的問題，

as it was then called,

當時是這麼被稱呼的，

and demilitarization.

還有非軍事化問題。

I was a very, very serious child. (Laughter)

我是個很嚴肅的孩子。 （笑聲）

And back then,

當時，

in the early '90s,

在九十年代初期，

I had a very cutting-edge tech tool of my own:

我也有屬於自己的前衛的工具：

the fax.

傳真。

And the fax was the tool of my activism.

傳真是我發起運動的工具。

And at that time, it was the best way

這也是那時候最好的溝通工具，

to get a message to a lot of people

能一次性地

all at once.

給許多人發送訊息。

I'll give you one example of a fax campaign that I ran.

我給你們舉一個例子 是用傳真發起的一次運動。

It was the eve of the Gulf War

那是海灣戰爭的前夕，

and I organized a global campaign to flood the hotel,

我組織了一次全球性的運動，

the Intercontinental in Geneva,

淹沒了日內瓦的整間洲際酒店，

where James Baker and Tariq Aziz

詹姆士·貝克與塔里克·阿齊茲

were meeting on the eve of the war,

在戰爭前夕於這間酒店會面，

and I thought if I could flood them with faxes,

我想，如果我可以用傳真淹沒他們，

we'll stop the war.

就可以阻止戰爭爆發。

Well, unsurprisingly,

然後，毫無意外地，

that campaign was wholly unsuccessful.

這運動徹徹底底地失敗了。

There are lots of reasons for that,

失敗的原因很多，

but there's no doubt that one sputtering fax machine

毫無疑問的是 一台拼命工作的傳真機，

in Geneva was a little bit of a bandwidth constraint

在日內瓦遇到頻寬限制

in terms of the ability to get a message to lots of people.

影響了它發送訊息給他人的能力。

And so, I went on to discover some better tools.

我繼續努力尋找新工具。

I cofounded Avaaz, which uses the Internet to mobilize people

我和 Avaaz 合作， 它們利用網絡做動員，

and now has almost 40 million members,

現在約有四千萬會員，

and I now run Purpose, which is a home for these kinds of

我現在經營「目的」網站，

technology-powered movements.

是一個運用科技力量 發起各種活動的大本營。

So what's the moral of this story?

這個故事有什麽寓意呢？

Is the moral of this story,

這故事的寓意在於，

you know what, the fax is kind of eclipsed by the mobile phone?

你們都知道傳真 被手機取代這件事嗎？

This is another story of tech-determinism?

又是一個技術決定論的故事嗎？

Well, I would argue that there's actually more to it than that.

我的觀點並不盡於此。

I'd argue that in the last 20 years,

我認為在過去的二十年裏，

something more fundamental has changed

有些基礎的東西在發生改變，

than just new tech.

而不僅僅是新科技。

I would argue that there has been a fundamental shift

我認為有一些基礎性的轉折

in the balance of power

發生在權力的平衡

in the world.

發生在世界上。

You ask any activist how to understand the world,

如果去問任何的活動家 要怎麽去理解這個世界。

and they'll say, "Look at where the power is,

他們會說：「觀察權力在那裡，

who has it, how it's shifting."

誰擁有權力，權力又如何轉換。」

And I think we all sense that something big is happening.

我想我們都能感覺到 世界正在發生大的改變。

So Henry Timms and I —

所以我與亨利·提姆士

Henry's a fellow movement builder —

亨利是創辦活動的伙伴

got talking one day and we started to think,

我們有天在討論中想到，

how can we make sense of this new world?

我們該怎麽理解這個新世界？

How can we describe it and give

怎樣描述這世界

it a framework that makes it more useful?

如何建立一個 更能發揮效用的架構？

Because we realized that many

因為我們認識到

of the lessons that we were discovering in movements

我們在運動中學到的教訓

actually applied all over the world

事實上適用於整個世界

in many sectors of our society.

和社會中的許多領域。

So I want to introduce you to this framework:

所以，我想向你們介紹這個架構：

Old power, meet new power.

新舊勢力相接。

And I want to talk to you about what new power is today.

我想告訴妳們 當今世界的新勢力是什麽。

New power is the deployment

新勢力就是規劃

of mass participation and peer coordination —

大眾參與和同伴協調

these are the two key elements —

是兩個關鍵要素

to create change and shift outcomes.

促進變革和改變事情的結果。

And we see new power all around us.

新勢力就在我們身邊。

This is Beppe Grillo

這位是畢普·格里羅

he was a populist Italian blogger

他是一個平民主義部落格主

who, with a minimal political apparatus and only some online tools,

只靠最少的政治支援 和上網工具，

won more than 25 percent of the vote

贏得超過 25% 的選票。

in recent Italian elections.

就發生在最近的意大利選舉。

This is Airbnb,

這是 Airbnb，

which in just a few years

在短短幾年中

has radically disrupted the hotel industry

徹底瓦解了飯店業

without owning a single square foot of real estate.

在不曾擁有土地資產的情況下。

This is Kickstarter,

這是 Kickstarter，

which we know has raised over a billion dollars

我們知道已經從五百万人以上的手中

from more than five million people.

募集超過十億美元。

Now, we're familiar with all of these models.

我們熟悉這些模式。

But what's striking is the commonalities,

但是真正讓人吃驚的是其共通性，

the structural features of these new models

新模式的結構特性

and how they differ from old power.

與舊勢力不同之處。

Let's look a little bit at this.

我們再仔細想想這個問題。

Old power is held like a currency.

舊勢力像貨幣流通。

New power works like a current.

新勢力則像電流。

Old power is held by a few.

舊勢力被少數人所掌握。

New power isn't held by a few, it's made by many.

而新勢力被許多人擁有。

Old power is all about download,

舊勢力是下載，

and new power uploads.

新勢力卻是上傳。

And you see a whole set of characteristics that you can trace,

你看到所有特點有跡可循，

whether it's in media or politics or education.

無論是在媒體，政治還是教育領域。

So we've talked a little bit about what new power is.

我們剛剛談論什麼是新勢力。

Let's, for a second, talk about what new power isn't.

再花一點時間來談談 新勢力不是什麼。

New power is not your Facebook page.

新勢力不是你的臉書專頁。

I assure you that having a social media strategy

我確信你有社交媒體戰略

can enable you to do just as much download

能夠使你由上而下執行策略

as you used to do when you had the radio.

就跟你過去使用廣播的策略一樣。

Just ask Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad,

只要問敘利亞獨裁者 巴沙爾·阿薩德你就知道了，

I assure you that his Facebook page

我保證他的臉書專頁

has not embraced the power of participation.

並沒有為他帶來大眾參與的力量。

New power is not inherently positive.

新力量不是天生樂觀。

In fact, this isn't an normative argument that we're making,

事實上，我們並沒有 在做規範的論證，

there are many good things about new power,

有許多關於新力量的好東西，

but it can produce bad outcomes.

但是它們可能導致不好的結果。

More participation, more peer coordination,

更多的參與，更多的對等協調，

sometimes distorts outcomes

有時候這會導致不好的結果

and there are some things,

還有一些，

like things, for example, in the medical profession

比如說，在醫療領域

that we want new power to get nowhere near.

不要讓新勢力涉入此領域。

And thirdly, new power is not the inevitable victor.

第三，新勢力不是一定會贏。

In fact, unsurprisingly,

事實上，毫無意外地，

as many of these new power models get to scale,

許多新勢力漸漸擴大規模，

what you see is this massive pushback

你看到一股強大的阻力

from the forces of old power.

來自舊勢力。

Just look at this really interesting epic struggle

看看這個有趣的史詩性對抗

going on right now between Edward Snowden and the NSA.

現在正發生的愛德華·史諾登 與美國國安局之間的恩怨。

You'll note that only one of the two people on this slide

你會注意到兩方之中 只有一方

is currently in exile.

流亡他鄉。

And so, it's not at all clear

所以，這是一個令人懷疑的說法

that new power will be the inevitable victor.

新勢力必定是贏家這個說法。

That said, keep one thing in mind:

也就是說，有件事要記在心裡：

We're at the beginning of a very steep curve.

我們正處在陡峻曲線的起點。

So you think about some of these new power models, right?

你在思考一些新勢力的模式，對吧？

These were just like someone's

這好像是某些人

garage idea a few years ago,

幾年前他們在車庫的靈光一閃，

and now they're disrupting entire industries.

現今它們正在顛覆 整個產業的商業模式。

And so, what's interesting about new power,

新勢力有趣的地方，

is the way it feeds on itself.

在於它自然形成的方式。

Once you have an experience of new power,

一旦你有發展新勢力的經驗，

you tend to expect and want more of it.

你會期望要求更多。

So let's say you've used a peer-to-peer lending platform

若使用過平等借貸平台

like Lending Tree or Prosper,

像是「 美國借貸俱樂部」 或是 「繁榮網站」，

then you've figured out that you don't need the bank,

你會發現你不需要銀行，

and who wants the bank, right?

誰還會使用銀行服務？

And so, that experience tends to embolden you

這種經驗會使你更有勇氣

it tends to make you want more participation

使你去更想要去參與

across more aspects of your life.

體驗更多樣化人生。

And what this gives rise to is

這會產生

a set of values.

一套價值觀。

We talked about the models

我們討論這個模式

that new power has engendered —

新勢力模式引起

the Airbnbs, the Kickstarters.

Airbnbs, Kickstarters 的價值觀。

What about the values?

至於價值觀本身，

And this is an early sketch

這是初步架構

at what new power values look like.

新勢力所呈現的樣子。

New power values prize transparency above all else.

新勢力把資訊透明 視為最重要的價值觀。

It's almost a religious belief in transparency,

把資訊透明化看成是一種宗教信仰，

a belief that if you shine a light on something,

它們相信只要透明化，

it will be better.

事情就會變好。

And remember that in the 20th century, this was not at all true.

要了解，在 20 世紀， 這一點也不適用。

People thought that gentlemen should sit behind closed doors

人們認為紳士應關起門來

and make comfortable agreements.

達成滿意的協議。

New power values of informal, networked governance.

新勢力著重非正式形式，網路管理

New power folks would never have invented the U.N. today,

當今的新勢力不會創立聯合國，

for better or worse.

不論是好是壞。

New power values participation,

新勢力重視參與，

and new power is all about do-it-yourself.

新勢力自己動手做。

In fact, what's interesting about new power

新勢力有趣的地方是

is that it eschews some of the professionalization

避免專業化

and specialization that was

和特殊化

all the rage in the 20th century.

廣泛使用於 20 世紀。

So what's interesting about these

這些有趣的

new power values and these new power models

新勢力價值觀和新勢力的模式

is what they mean for organizations.

是專為公司組織而設立的。

So we've spent a bit of time thinking,

我們花了一些時間思考，

how can we plot organizations

要如何規劃組織

on a two-by-two where, essentially,

在二維的座標上，

we look at new power values

我們觀察新勢力的價值觀

and new power models

新勢力的模式

and see where different people sit?

以及看到不同人所處的位置。

We started with a U.S. analysis,

我們以美國的例子作分析，

and let me show you some interesting findings.

我向各位展示一些有趣的事情。

So the first is Apple.

第一個例子是「蘋果電腦」。

In this framework, we actually described Apple

在這個架構上，我們事實上 將「蘋果電腦」

as an old power company.

歸類為舊勢力公司。

That's because the ideology,

因為公司的意識形態，

the governing ideology of Apple

「蘋果電腦」的管理形式

is the ideology of the perfectionist

是位於庫比蒂諾（加州）

product designer in Cupertino.

完美主義產品設者的意識形態。

It's absolutely about that beautiful, perfect thing descending upon us

產品絶對是出色完美， 完美的產品承襲

in perfection.

我們完美的目標。

And it does not value, as a company, transparency.

「蘋果電腦」沒有訊息透明的價值觀。

In fact, it's very secretive.

事實上，「蘋果電腦」 對資訊相當保密。

Now, Apple is one of the most succesful companies in the world.

當今，「蘋果電腦」 是世界上最成功公司之一。

So this shows that you can

這意味著

still pursue a successful old power strategy.

你可以追求成功的舊勢力策略。

But one can argue that there's real vulnerabilites in that model.

有人會說這種模式相當脆弱。

I think another interesting comparison

我有另外一個相對的例子

is that of the Obama campaign

即歐巴馬競選活動

versus the Obama presidency.

與歐巴馬執政的對比。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Now, I like President Obama,

我喜歡歐巴馬總統，

but he ran with new power at his back, right?

但他暗中行使新勢力，對吧？

And he said to people,

他有說過，

we are the ones we've been waiting for.

我們就是那些我們一直在等待的人。

And he used crowdfunding

他用群眾募資的方式

to power a campaign.

來擴大競選活動的勢力。

But when he got into office,

當他選上總統，

he governed like more or less all the other presidents did.

他的執政與其他總統 沒什麼差別。

And this is a really interesting trend,

這是個有趣的趨勢，

is when new power gets powerful,

當新勢力變得強大後，

what happens?

會發生什麼？

So this is a framework you should look at

所以這是你應該要去思考的架構

and think about where your own organization

想看看你的組織

sits on it.

在架構上所處的位置。

And think about where it should be

想想看五年或十年內

in five or 10 years.

它應該是在那一個位置。

So what do you do if you're old power?

如果你的組織是舊勢力， 你該如何做？

Well, if you're there thinking, in old power,

如果你身處舊勢力 並思忖著，

this won't happen to us.

這不會發生在我身上。

Then just look at the Wikipedia entry for Encyclopædia Britannica.

搜尋維基百科 「大英百科全書」。

Let me tell you, it's a very sad read.

我告訴各位， 搜尋結果讓人感到難過。

But if you are old power,

如果你的組織是舊勢力，

the most important thing you can do is to occupy yourself

最重要，你必須做的是 佔有自己的職務

before others occupy you,

在別人佔領你的職務之前，

before you are occupied.

在你的職務被佔領之前。

Imagine that a group of your biggest skeptics

想想看，有一群對組織最為質疑的人

are camped in the heart of your organization

駐在你的組織的核心處

asking the toughest questions

提出最尖銳的問題

and they can see everything inside of your organization.

他們可以看透組織的一切。

And ask them, would they like what they see

然後問他們， 是否喜歡所看到的現象

and should our model change?

我們的模式是否需要改變？

What about if you're new power?

如果你的組織是新勢力， 該做什麼？

Is new power kind of just riding the wave to glory?

新勢力會是順勢直達目的地嗎？

I would argue no.

我會說，不是的。

I would argue that there are some very real challenges

我認為新勢力在初期階段

to new power in this nascent phase.

存在一些真正的挑戰。

Let's stick with the Occupy Wall Street example for a moment.

我們接著再花一點時間討論 佔領華爾街這個例子。

Occupy was this incredible example of new power,

佔領是新勢力令人難以置信的例子，

the purest example of new power.

這個佔領活動是新勢力最經典的例子。

And yet, it failed to consolidate.

然而，這活動沒有團結一致。

So the energy that it created

所以這活動產生

was great for the meme phase,

對剛開始的模仿階段來說是重要的，

but they were so committed to participation,

但他們太注重參與度，

that they never got anything done.

以致於沒有成果。

And in fact that model

事實上，這個模式

means that the challenge for new power is:

對新勢力的挑戰是：

how do you use institutional power

在組織制度尚未完整下

without being institutionalized?

你如何發揮組織的力量？

One the other end of the spectra is Uber.

另一個例子是「優步」。

Uber is an amazing,

「優步」這公司令人訝異，

highly scalable new power model.

有強大的新勢力。

That network is getting denser and denser

服務網日復一日愈加嚴密。

by the day.

But what's really interesting about Uber is

但「優步」真正有趣的地方在於

it hasn't really adopted new power values.

「優步」沒有真正採用 新勢力價值觀。

This is a real quote from the Uber CEO recently:

以下是引用「優步」執行長 最近說的話：

He says, "Once we get rid of the dude in the car" — he means drivers —

他說，一旦我們擺脫車子裡 這位講究衣著儀表的人，他指的是司機

"Uber will be cheaper."

「優步」就便宜了。

Now, new power models live and die

現在新勢力模式的生死

by the strength of their networks.

取決於連繫網路是否綿密。

By whether the drivers and the consumers

也取決於司機和顧客

who use the service actually believe in it.

這些使用Uber的人的信賴。

Because they're not an exercise of top-down perfectionism,

因為他們不是一個由上至下 完美主義的活動，

they are about the network.

這是有關連繫網路。

And so, the challenge,

因此，這個挑戰，

and this is why it's in no way surprising,

一點也不令人感到訝異的是

is that Uber's drivers are now unionizing.

「優步」的司機組成工會。

It's extraordinary.

這真是非比尋常。

Uber's drivers are turning on Uber.

「優步」的司機正在 對抗「優步」公司。

And the challenge for Uber —

「優步」的挑戰

this isn't an easy situation for them —

對他們來說是個不簡單的局面

is that they are locked into a broader superstrcuture

他們被困在一個寬廣的上層結構

that is really old power.

這其實是舊勢力。

They've raised more than a billion dollars in the capital markets.

「優步」在資本市場 募得十億美金以上的資金。

Those markets expect a financial return,

資本市場期待獲得財務回報，

and they way you get a financial return

獲得財務回報的方式

is by squeezing and squeezing

是不斷壓榨

your users and your drivers

顧客和司機

for more and more value

以獲得更多利潤

and giving that value to your investors.

再將利潤轉到投資人手中。

So the big question about the future of new power, in my view, is:

未來新勢力最大的問題 我的看法是：

Will that old power just emerge?

舊勢力將會再現？

So will new power elites just become

新勢力的精英將

old power and squeeze?

變成舊勢力並壓榨他人嗎？

Or will that new power base bite back?

或是新勢力被抑制？

Will the next big Uber

下一個「優步」

be co-owned by Uber drivers?

將會成為優步司機共同擁有？

And I think this going to be a very interesting

我認為這將會是一個非常有趣

structural question.

的結構上問題。

Finally, think about new power

最後，新勢力

being more than just an

不只是

entity that scales things

組織規模的大小

that make us have slightly better consumer experiences.

使我們有比較好的顧客使用經驗。

My call to action for new power

我對新勢力的呼籲

is to not be an island.

是不要孤立。

We have major structural problems in the world today

我們面臨主要結構性的問題

that could benefit enormously

能夠獲得巨大的利益

from the kinds of mass participation

從廣泛的參與

and peer coordination

和對等合作中獲得

that these new power players

對新勢力的參與者來說

know so well how to generate.

非常熟悉如何去執行。

And we badly need them to turn their energies and their power

我們非常需要 將能量和勢力

to big, what economists might call

移轉到經濟學家所說的

public goods problems,

一個重大的公共產品問題，

that are often beyond markets

這些問題通常發生在市場之外

where investors can easily be found.

這些地方容易找到投資者。

And I think if we can do that,

我認為，如果我們能這麼做，

we might be able to fundamentally change

我們或許可以從根本做改變

not only human beings' sense of their own agency and power —

而不只是人類意識到自身能力

because I think that's the most wonderful thing about new power,

因為我認為這是新勢力最好的事情，

is that people feel more powerful —

就是讓人們感覺自己掌握更多權力

but we might also be able to change

我們或許能夠改變

the way we relate to each other

我們與他人的相處方式

and the way we relate to authority and institutions.

與當權者和機構組織的相處方式。

And to me, that's absolutely

對我而言，那是絕對值得去嘗試的

worth trying for.

Thank you very much.

謝謝各位。

(Applause)

（掌聲）