How the military fights climate change | David Titley

翻译人员: Hong Li 校对人员: MINGZHI SHIHUA

So I'd like to tell you a story about climate and change,

我想讲一个关于气候和变化的故事，

but it's really a story about people and not polar bears.

但这个故事实际上跟人有关， 而不是北极熊。

So this is our house that we lived in in the mid-2000s.

这是我2005年左右住的房子。

I was the chief operating officer for the Navy's weather and ocean service.

当时我在海军天气和海洋局 当首席运营官。

It happened to be down at a place called Stennis Space Center

房子位于斯坦尼斯航天中心，

right on the Gulf Coast,

墨西哥湾沿岸，

我们住在密西西比州 一个叫维乌兰德的小镇，

so we lived in a little town called Waveland, Mississippi,

nice modest house, and as you can see, it's up against a storm surge.

很漂亮很现代的房子，如您所见， 它经历了风暴潮。

Now, if you ever wonder

不知道您想过没有，

what a 30-foot or nine-meter storm surge does

30英尺，或者说9米高的风暴潮

coming up your street,

袭击您住的街区会是什么样子，

let me show you.

我们来看一看。

Same house.

就是那栋房子。

That's me, kind of wondering what's next.

那是我，在想接下来应该怎么办。

But when we say we lost our house -- this is, like, right after Katrina --

我们失去了自己的房子， 这是在卡特里娜飓风过境之后，

so the house is either all the way up there in the railway tracks,

我们的房子要么在这里的铁路线上，

or it's somewhere down there in the Gulf of Mexico,

要么就是在墨西哥湾里的某个地方，

and to this day, we really, we lost our house.

直到今天，我只知道房子没了，

We don't know where it is.

天知道它在哪里。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You know, it's gone.

没了就是没了。

So I don't show this for pity,

我说这个不是为了寻求同情，

because in many ways, we were the luckiest people on the Gulf Coast.

因为从很多方面来说， 我们已经是墨西哥湾沿岸最幸运的人了。

One of the things is, we had insurance,

因为很重要的一点，我们有保险，

and that idea of insurance is probably pretty important there.

保险对于我们那儿而言尤为重要。

But does this scale up, you know, what happened here?

那么这种事情会不会越来越严重呢？

And I think it kind of does, because as you've heard,

我认为会，因为大家都知道，

as the sea levels come up,

随着海平面上升，

it takes weaker and weaker storms to do something like this.

越来越小的风暴 都可以造成这样大的伤害。

So let's just step back for a second and kind of look at this.

让我们先停一下，来看看这个。

And, you know, climate's really complicated,

我们都知道，气候非常复杂，

a lot of moving parts in this,

有很多变化因素在里面，

but I kind of put it about it's all about the water.

但简单来看，全部都跟水有关。

See, see those three blue dots there down on the lower part?

大家看到下面这3个蓝色的点了吗？

The one you can easily see, that's all the water in the world.

最大的那个，是全世界所有的水。

Those two smaller dots, those are the fresh water.

比较小的那2个，是淡水。

And it turns out that as the climate changes,

其实随着气候的变化，

the distribution of that water is changing very fundamentally.

水的比例会发生根本性的变化。

So now we have too much, too little, wrong place, wrong time.

要么多了，要么少了， 要么地点不对，要么时间不对。

It's salty where it should be fresh; it's liquid where it should be frozen;

本该是淡水的，变成了咸水， 本该是冻结的，融化了，

it's wet where it should be dry;

本该干燥的地方变潮湿了，

and in fact, the very chemistry of the ocean itself is changing.

实际上，海洋本身的 化学成分也在变化。

And what that does from a security or a military part

那么从安全和军事角度来说，

is it does three things:

气候变化带来了3件事：

it changes the very operating environment that we're working in,

一是改变了我们行动的环境，

it threatens our bases,

威胁我们的基地，

and then it has geostrategic risks, which sounds kind of fancy

同时还有地缘战略风险， 这个听起来有点高深，

and I'll explain what I mean by that in a second.

我稍后会详细解释。

So let's go to just a couple examples here.

下面举几个例子。

And we'll start off with what we all know

首先是大家众所周知的，

is of course a political and humanitarian catastrophe

发生在叙利亚的人道主义灾难

that is Syria.

和政治灾难。

And it turns out that climate was one of the causes

原来，气候也是起因之一，

in a long chain of events.

是链条中的一环。

It actually started back in the 1970s.

事情开始于20世纪70年代。

When Assad took control over Syria,

当时阿萨德控制了叙利亚，

he decided he wanted to be self-sufficient in things like wheat and barley.

他想要实现粮食自给自足。

Now, you would like to think

好的，你也许会想，

that there was somebody in Assad's office that said,

会有人在阿萨德的办公室说，

"Hey boss, you know, we're in the eastern Mediterranean,

“老板，我们位于地中海东岸，

kind of dry here, maybe not the best idea."

气候有点干燥，可能有点难办。”

But I think what happened was,

但我觉得实际情况可能是，

"Boss, you are a smart, powerful and handsome man. We'll get right on it."

“老板，您真是英明神武。 我们立刻去办。”

And they did.

他们说到做到。

So by the '90s, believe it or not,

不管你信不信，在90年代，

they were actually self-sufficient in food,

他们真的做到了粮食自给自足，

but they did it at a great cost.

但付出的代价也很大。

They did it at a cost of their aquifers,

代价就是他们的地下水，

they did it at a cost of their surface water.

以及地表水。

And of course, there are many nonclimate issues

当然，还有很多非气候的因素

that also contributed to Syria.

造成了目前叙利亚的局面。

There was the Iraq War,

比如伊拉克战争，

and as you can see by that lower blue line there,

请大家看底下这条蓝色的线，

over a million refugees come into the cities.

超过100万难民涌入城市。

And then about a decade ago,

另外，差不多十年前，

there's this tremendous heat wave and drought --

发生了严重的热浪和干旱，

fingerprints all over that show,

所有的证据都表明，

yes, this is in fact related to the changing climate --

没错，这的确跟气候变化有关

has put another three quarters of a million farmers

而且这又将另外75万农民

into those same cities.

赶入了之前那些城市。

Why? Because they had nothing.

为什么？因为他们已经一无所有。

They had dust. They had dirt. They had nothing.

除了沙尘和荒漠，一无所有。

So now they're in the cities,

他们身处城市之中，

the Iraqis are in the cities,

伊拉克人也在城市之中，

it's Assad, it's not like he's taking care of his people,

那可是阿萨德， 他可不关照他的子民，

and all of a sudden we have just this huge issue here

仿佛一夜之间， 出现了很多大问题，

of massive instability

比如不稳定，

and a breeding ground for extremism.

比如滋生极端主义。

And this is why in the security community

正因为此，我们搞安全的

we call climate change a risk to instability.

会把气候变化称为造成不稳定的风险。

It accelerates instability here.

它会加速不稳定。

In plain English, it makes bad places worse.

直白点说，会让不好的地方变得更糟。

So let's go to another place here.

下面我们去另一个地方看一下。

Now we're going to go 2,000 kilometers, or about 1,200 miles, north of Oslo,

奥斯陆北边2000公里， 或者说1200英里的地方，

only 600 miles from the Pole,

那儿离北极点只有600英里，

and this is arguably

那个地方可以说是

the most strategic island you've never heard of.

最具有战略意义的岛屿， 而你可能从未听说过。

It's a place called Svalbard.

它叫斯瓦尔巴。

It sits astride the sea lanes

它横跨数条海洋航道，

that the Russian Northern Fleet needs to get out and go into warmer waters.

俄罗斯的北方舰队要进入 温暖海域，必须经过这里。

It is also, by virtue of its geography,

它还有一个地理上的优势，

a place where you can control every single polar orbiting satellite

在这里，你可以控制到 每一颗极地轨道卫星

on every orbit.

无论它的轨道高度如何。

It is the strategic high ground of space.

这里是太空的战略制高点。

Climate change has greatly reduced the sea ice around here,

气候变化极大减少了 那里的海冰，

greatly increasing human activity,

并大大加强了人类活动，

and it's becoming a flashpoint,

这里成为了一个导火线，

and in fact the NATO Parliamentary Assembly

实际上，北约的议会大会，

is going to meet here on Svalbard next month.

将会于下月在斯瓦尔巴召开。

The Russians are very, very unhappy about that.

俄罗斯对此非常不满。

So if you want to find a flashpoint in the Arctic,

如果你想在北极找一个导火线，

look at Svalbard there.

非斯瓦尔巴莫属。

Now, in the military,

在军事领域，

we have known for decades, if not centuries,

在早几十年甚至几个世纪前， 我们就已经明白，

that the time to prepare,

要防患于未然，

whether it's for a hurricane, a typhoon or strategic changes,

预防飓风、台风或者战略变化，

is before they hit you,

做好预案，

and Admiral Nimitz was right there.

尼米兹上将明白这一点。

That is the time to prepare.

他已经在准备应对。

Fortunately, our Secretary of Defense,

幸运的是，我们的国防部长，

Secretary Mattis, he understands that as well,

马蒂斯部长，他也明白这一点，

and what he understands is that climate is a risk.

他知道气候是风险。

He has said so in his written responses to Congress,

他在对国会的书面回复中写到，

and he says, "As Secretary of Defense,

“作为国防部长，

it's my job to manage such risks."

我有责任来应对这些风险。”

It's not only the US military that understands this.

不仅是美国军方有这种意识。

Many of our friends and allies in other navies and other militaries

我们在其他国家海军和军方的 许多朋友和盟友

have very clear-eyed views about the climate risk.

对于气候风险也有很清醒的认识。

And in fact, in 2014, I was honored to speak for a half-a-day seminar

2014年，我有幸参加了 一次为期半天的研讨会，

at the International Seapower Symposium

主题是国际海洋力量，

to 70 heads of navies about this issue.

我有幸对全球70家海军的领袖发言。

So Winston Churchill is alleged to have said,

据说温斯顿·丘吉尔说过，

I'm not sure if he said anything, but he's alleged to have said

我不确定他是否说过， 但据说是这样，

that Americans can always be counted upon to do the right thing

他说，美国人在折腾完 其他所有的可能性之后，

after exhausting every other possibility.

总会做出正确的决定的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So I would argue we're still in the process

我会说，我们还在折腾，

of exhausting every other possibility,

折腾其他所有的可能性，

but I do think we will prevail.

但我认为我们有优势。

But I need your help.

但我需要你们的帮助。

This is my ask.

这是我的请求。

I ask not that you take your recycling out on Wednesday,

我并不会请求你们 在周三交出可回收物品，

but that you engage with every business leader,

而是请求你们 去游说每一位商业领袖，

every technology leader, every government leader,

每一位技术领袖， 每一位政府首脑，

and ask them, "Ma'am, sir,

问问他们“女士/先生，

what are you doing to stabilize the climate?"

您打算如何来保持气候稳定？”

It's just that simple.

就这么简单。

Because when enough people care enough,

因为只要有足够多的人关注，

the politicians, most of whom won't lead on this issue --

那么政治家们——大部分可能并不直接管这事，

but they will be led --

但他们会被动员起来，

that will change this.

那就足以改变现状了。

Because I can tell you, the ice doesn't care.

因为我可以告诉大家，冰川无情。

The ice doesn't care who's in the White House.

冰川并不会在意谁入主白宫。

It doesn't care which party controls your congress.

它也不在意国会被哪个党控制。

It doesn't care which party controls your parliament.

议会被哪个党控制。

It just melts.

它只会融化。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）