How the military fights climate change | David Titley

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Regina Chu

So I'd like to tell you a story about climate and change,

我想要告訴各位一個 關於氣候和變遷的故事，

but it's really a story about people and not polar bears.

但它其實是一個關於 人的故事，而非北極熊。

So this is our house that we lived in in the mid-2000s.

這是我們在 2000 年代中期 所居住的房子。

I was the chief operating officer for the Navy's weather and ocean service.

我是海軍氣象與海洋局營運長。

It happened to be down at a place called Stennis Space Center

它剛好是在一個叫做 斯坦尼斯航天中心的地方，

right on the Gulf Coast,

就在墨西哥灣沿岸地區，

所以我們住在一個小鎮， 密西西比的威佛蘭，

so we lived in a little town called Waveland, Mississippi,

它是間樸素的好房子，

nice modest house, and as you can see, it's up against a storm surge.

如你們所見，它面對風暴潮。

Now, if you ever wonder

如果你曾納悶過，

what a 30-foot or nine-meter storm surge does

三十英呎或九公尺高的 風暴潮打到街上時，

coming up your street,

會造成什麼狀況，

let me show you.

讓我呈現給你們看。

Same house.

同一間房子。

That's me, kind of wondering what's next.

那是我，有點搞不清楚 接下來會發生什麼。

But when we say we lost our house -- this is, like, right after Katrina --

我們說我們的房子不見了 ──那是在卡崔娜颶風之後──

so the house is either all the way up there in the railway tracks,

房子要不是一路跑到鐵軌那一頭，

or it's somewhere down there in the Gulf of Mexico,

就是到了墨西哥灣那一頭，

and to this day, we really, we lost our house.

至今，我們的房子真的不見了。

We don't know where it is.

我們不知道它在哪裡。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You know, it's gone.

你們知道的，它不見了。

So I don't show this for pity,

我呈現這些的目的不是要索取同情，

because in many ways, we were the luckiest people on the Gulf Coast.

因為從許多方面看，

我們算是墨西哥灣沿岸最幸運的人。

One of the things is, we had insurance,

其中一件幸運的事是，我們有保險，

and that idea of insurance is probably pretty important there.

在這裡，保險是相當重要的。

But does this scale up, you know, what happened here?

這裡發生的事是否會再擴大？

And I think it kind of does, because as you've heard,

而我認為還會再擴大， 因為如你們已經聽到過的，

as the sea levels come up,

隨著海平面上升，

it takes weaker and weaker storms to do something like this.

不用多強的風暴， 就可以造成這樣的破壞了。

So let's just step back for a second and kind of look at this.

我們先退後一步，來看看這個現象。

And, you know, climate's really complicated,

氣候是很複雜的，

a lot of moving parts in this,

當中有許多持續在動的部分，

but I kind of put it about it's all about the water.

但我覺得可以說，一切都和水有關。

See, see those three blue dots there down on the lower part?

看到下半部有三個藍點了嗎？

The one you can easily see, that's all the water in the world.

很容易看見的那個藍點， 表示全世界所有的水。

Those two smaller dots, those are the fresh water.

兩個比較小的點，它們表示淡水。

And it turns out that as the climate changes,

結果發現，隨著氣候變遷，

the distribution of that water is changing very fundamentally.

水的分佈也有根本上的改變。

So now we have too much, too little, wrong place, wrong time.

現在我們看到太多水、 太少水、不對的地方、不對的時間。

It's salty where it should be fresh; it's liquid where it should be frozen;

該是淡水的地方有鹽， 在水該是液態的地方水卻結冰了；

it's wet where it should be dry;

該乾燥的地方卻是濕的；

and in fact, the very chemistry of the ocean itself is changing.

事實上，連海洋本身的 化學性質也在改變。

And what that does from a security or a military part

它對於安全或是軍方的影響，

is it does three things:

包括下列三項：

it changes the very operating environment that we're working in,

它改變了我們工作的作業環境，

it threatens our bases,

它威脅我們的基地，

and then it has geostrategic risks, which sounds kind of fancy

且還有地緣戰略的風險， 這聽起來挺炫的，

and I'll explain what I mean by that in a second.

我等一下就會解釋它的意思。

So let's go to just a couple examples here.

我們先來看幾個例子。

And we'll start off with what we all know

我們先從大家都知道的開始，

is of course a political and humanitarian catastrophe

當然，就是政治和人道主義的災難，

that is Syria.

也就是敘利亞。

And it turns out that climate was one of the causes

結果發現，氣候是一系列

in a long chain of events.

連鎖事件的成因之一。

It actually started back in the 1970s.

其實，一切是從 1970 年代開始的。

When Assad took control over Syria,

阿薩德接管了敘利亞，

he decided he wanted to be self-sufficient in things like wheat and barley.

在小麥和大麥方面， 他決定要做到自給自足。

Now, you would like to think

你會希望，

that there was somebody in Assad's office that said,

在阿薩德的辦公室中有個人說：

"Hey boss, you know, we're in the eastern Mediterranean,

「嘿，老闆，你知道嗎， 我們在東地中海，

kind of dry here, maybe not the best idea."

這裡有點乾燥， 這也許不是最好的點子。」

但我認為，真正的狀況的是：

But I think what happened was,

"Boss, you are a smart, powerful and handsome man. We'll get right on it."

「老闆，你是個很聰明、有影響力、 英俊的人。我們馬上去辦。」

And they did.

他們就做了。

So by the '90s, believe it or not,

所以，到了 1990 年代，

信不信由你，

they were actually self-sufficient in food,

他們在食物方面確實做到自給自足，

but they did it at a great cost.

但他們這麼做的代價很大。

They did it at a cost of their aquifers,

代價是他們的地下蓄水層，

they did it at a cost of their surface water.

犧牲了他們的地表水。

And of course, there are many nonclimate issues

當然，有許多非氣候的議題，

that also contributed to Syria.

也影響著敘利亞。

There was the Iraq War,

有伊拉克戰爭，

and as you can see by that lower blue line there,

你們可以看看下方的藍線，

over a million refugees come into the cities.

有超過一百萬難民來到城市。

And then about a decade ago,

接著，大約十年前，

there's this tremendous heat wave and drought --

發生了驚人的熱浪和乾旱──

fingerprints all over that show,

這些狀況上面全是兇手的指紋，

yes, this is in fact related to the changing climate --

是的，事實上， 這和氣候變遷有關──

has put another three quarters of a million farmers

讓一百萬農夫的四分之三

into those same cities.

也都進入這些城市中。

Why? Because they had nothing.

為什麼？因為他們一無所有。

They had dust. They had dirt. They had nothing.

他們只有塵土、泥土。 他們一無所有。

So now they're in the cities,

所以，現在他們在城市中，

the Iraqis are in the cities,

伊拉克人在城市中，

it's Assad, it's not like he's taking care of his people,

總統是阿薩德， 他並不是會照顧人民的人，

and all of a sudden we have just this huge issue here

突然間，我們就有了這個巨大議題，

of massive instability

這個議題就是極度的不穩定性

and a breeding ground for extremism.

以及極端主義的滋生地。

And this is why in the security community

這就是為什麼在安全共同體中，

we call climate change a risk to instability.

我們會把氣候變遷 稱為不穩定性的風險。

It accelerates instability here.

在這裡，它會加速不穩定性。

In plain English, it makes bad places worse.

用白話英文來說， 它會讓不好的地方變更糟。

So let's go to another place here.

我們再來看看另一個地方。

Now we're going to go 2,000 kilometers, or about 1,200 miles, north of Oslo,

我們要再走 2000 公里 或約 1200 英哩，到北奧斯陸，

only 600 miles from the Pole,

離北極只有 600 英哩，

and this is arguably

這可以說是

the most strategic island you've never heard of.

你從來沒有聽過， 卻最具戰略性的島嶼。

It's a place called Svalbard.

這個地方叫做斯瓦巴。

It sits astride the sea lanes

它橫跨各個海上航路，

that the Russian Northern Fleet needs to get out and go into warmer waters.

俄國的北方艦隊需要從這些航路出去

到更溫暖的水域。

It is also, by virtue of its geography,

此外，因為這個地方的地勢，

a place where you can control every single polar orbiting satellite

從這裡，你能控制在每條軌道上 環繞的每一顆繞極軌道衛星。

on every orbit.

It is the strategic high ground of space.

它是太空的策略性高地。

Climate change has greatly reduced the sea ice around here,

氣候變遷大大減少了這裡的海冰，

greatly increasing human activity,

大大增加了人類活動，

and it's becoming a flashpoint,

它變成了一觸即發的爆發點，

and in fact the NATO Parliamentary Assembly

事實上，北大西洋公約組織議會大會

is going to meet here on Svalbard next month.

下個月將會在斯瓦巴這裡開會。

The Russians are very, very unhappy about that.

俄國人對此非常不高興。

So if you want to find a flashpoint in the Arctic,

如果你想要在北極圈找一個爆發點，

look at Svalbard there.

那就是斯瓦巴了。

Now, in the military,

在軍中，

we have known for decades, if not centuries,

數百年或至少數十年來，我們都知道

that the time to prepare,

面對不論是颶風、

whether it's for a hurricane, a typhoon or strategic changes,

颱風，或策略改變，做準備的時間點

is before they hit you,

是在它來襲之前。

and Admiral Nimitz was right there.

尼米茲將軍就在那裡。

That is the time to prepare.

那就是做準備的時間點。

Fortunately, our Secretary of Defense,

幸運的是，我們的國防部長，

Secretary Mattis, he understands that as well,

馬提斯部長，他也了解這一點，

and what he understands is that climate is a risk.

他了解的是，氣候是一項風險。

He has said so in his written responses to Congress,

他在給國會的 書面回應中提到這一點，

and he says, "As Secretary of Defense,

他寫說：「身為國防部長，

it's my job to manage such risks."

我的工作就是要管理這類風險。」

It's not only the US military that understands this.

不只有美國軍方了解這一點。

Many of our friends and allies in other navies and other militaries

我們在其他海軍及軍隊中的 許多朋友和盟友

have very clear-eyed views about the climate risk.

對於氣候風險有著非常清晰的了解。

And in fact, in 2014, I was honored to speak for a half-a-day seminar

事實上，2014 年， 我有榮幸在為期半天的

at the International Seapower Symposium

國際海權研討會上演說，

to 70 heads of navies about this issue.

與七十位海軍將領談論這個議題。

So Winston Churchill is alleged to have said,

據說邱吉爾說過，

I'm not sure if he said anything, but he's alleged to have said

我不確定他說過什麼， 但據說他說過，

that Americans can always be counted upon to do the right thing

永遠可以仰賴美國人， 相信他們會做對的事，

after exhausting every other possibility.

如果所有其他可能性都已用盡的話。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So I would argue we're still in the process

我會爭辯說，我們還在努力用盡

of exhausting every other possibility,

所有其他可能性的過程當中，

but I do think we will prevail.

但我確實認為我們會獲勝。

But I need your help.

但我需要你們協助。

This is my ask.

這是我的請願。

I ask not that you take your recycling out on Wednesday,

我請求的不是你們要在 星期三把回收物拿出來回收，

but that you engage with every business leader,

而是要你們去接觸每一位企業領導者、

every technology leader, every government leader,

每一位科技領導者、 每一位政府領導者，

and ask them, "Ma'am, sir,

並問他們：「女士／先生，

what are you doing to stabilize the climate?"

你做了什麼事來穩定氣候？」

It's just that simple.

就這麼簡單。

Because when enough people care enough,

因為，當足夠的人有足夠的在乎，

the politicians, most of whom won't lead on this issue --

在這個議題上，雖然 大部分政客不會帶頭──

but they will be led --

但他們會被引領──

that will change this.

那就能改變這狀況。

Because I can tell you, the ice doesn't care.

因為我能告訴各位，冰並不在乎。

The ice doesn't care who's in the White House.

冰並不在乎誰坐鎮白宮。

It doesn't care which party controls your congress.

冰並不在乎哪個黨派控制你的國會。

It doesn't care which party controls your parliament.

冰並不在乎哪個黨派控制你的議會。

It just melts.

它就是會融化。

Thank you very much.

非常謝謝你們。

(Applause)

（掌聲）